Ensuring resilience to extreme weather events increases the ambition of mitigation scenarios on solar power and storage uptake: a study on the Italian power system
{"title":"Ensuring resilience to extreme weather events increases the ambition of mitigation scenarios on solar power and storage uptake: a study on the Italian power system","authors":"Alice Di Bella, Francesco Pietro Colelli","doi":"arxiv-2409.03593","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study explores compounding impacts of climate change on power system's\nload and generation, emphasising the need to integrate adaptation and\nmitigation strategies into investment planning. We combine existing and novel\nempirical evidence to model impacts on: i) air-conditioning demand; ii) thermal\npower outages; iii) hydro-power generation shortages. Using a power dispatch\nand capacity expansion model, we analyse the Italian power system's response to\nthese climate impacts in 2030, integrating mitigation targets and optimising\nfor cost-efficiency at an hourly resolution. We outline different\nmeteorological scenarios to explore the impacts of both average climatic\nchanges and the intensification of extreme weather events. We find that\naddressing extreme weather in power system planning will require an extra 5-8\nGW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity, on top of the 50 GW of the additional solar\nPV capacity required by the mitigation target alone. Despite the higher initial\ninvestments, we find that the adoption of renewable technologies, especially\nPV, alleviates the power system's vulnerability to climate change and extreme\nweather events. Furthermore, enhancing short-term storage with lithium-ion\nbatteries is crucial to counterbalance the reduced availability of dispatchable\nhydro generation.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.03593","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study explores compounding impacts of climate change on power system's
load and generation, emphasising the need to integrate adaptation and
mitigation strategies into investment planning. We combine existing and novel
empirical evidence to model impacts on: i) air-conditioning demand; ii) thermal
power outages; iii) hydro-power generation shortages. Using a power dispatch
and capacity expansion model, we analyse the Italian power system's response to
these climate impacts in 2030, integrating mitigation targets and optimising
for cost-efficiency at an hourly resolution. We outline different
meteorological scenarios to explore the impacts of both average climatic
changes and the intensification of extreme weather events. We find that
addressing extreme weather in power system planning will require an extra 5-8
GW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity, on top of the 50 GW of the additional solar
PV capacity required by the mitigation target alone. Despite the higher initial
investments, we find that the adoption of renewable technologies, especially
PV, alleviates the power system's vulnerability to climate change and extreme
weather events. Furthermore, enhancing short-term storage with lithium-ion
batteries is crucial to counterbalance the reduced availability of dispatchable
hydro generation.