确保对极端天气事件的复原力提高了太阳能发电和储能吸收减缓方案的雄心:对意大利电力系统的研究

Alice Di Bella, Francesco Pietro Colelli
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究探讨了气候变化对电力系统负荷和发电量的复合影响,强调了将适应和减缓战略纳入投资规划的必要性。我们结合现有和新的经验证据,模拟对以下方面的影响:i) 空调需求;ii) 火力发电中断;iii) 水力发电短缺。利用电力调度和容量扩展模型,我们分析了 2030 年意大利电力系统对这些气候影响的响应,以小时为单位整合了减缓目标并优化了成本效益。我们概述了不同的气象情景,以探讨平均气候变化和极端天气事件加剧的影响。我们发现,在电力系统规划中应对极端天气将需要额外 5-8 千兆瓦的光伏发电能力,而仅减缓目标就需要额外 50 千兆瓦的太阳能光伏发电能力。尽管初始投资较高,但我们发现,采用可再生技术,尤其是光伏技术,可以减轻电力系统在气候变化和极端天气事件面前的脆弱性。此外,加强锂离子电池的短期存储对于平衡可调度水力发电量的减少也至关重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Ensuring resilience to extreme weather events increases the ambition of mitigation scenarios on solar power and storage uptake: a study on the Italian power system
This study explores compounding impacts of climate change on power system's load and generation, emphasising the need to integrate adaptation and mitigation strategies into investment planning. We combine existing and novel empirical evidence to model impacts on: i) air-conditioning demand; ii) thermal power outages; iii) hydro-power generation shortages. Using a power dispatch and capacity expansion model, we analyse the Italian power system's response to these climate impacts in 2030, integrating mitigation targets and optimising for cost-efficiency at an hourly resolution. We outline different meteorological scenarios to explore the impacts of both average climatic changes and the intensification of extreme weather events. We find that addressing extreme weather in power system planning will require an extra 5-8 GW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity, on top of the 50 GW of the additional solar PV capacity required by the mitigation target alone. Despite the higher initial investments, we find that the adoption of renewable technologies, especially PV, alleviates the power system's vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events. Furthermore, enhancing short-term storage with lithium-ion batteries is crucial to counterbalance the reduced availability of dispatchable hydro generation.
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