{"title":"并非所有石油价格冲击都一样。基里安的复制》(《美国经济评论》,2009 年)","authors":"Rich Ryan, Nyakundi Michieka","doi":"arxiv-2409.00769","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The price of oil can rise because of a disruption to supply or an increase in\ndemand. The nature of the price change determines the dynamic effects. As\nKilian (2009) put it: \"not all oil price shocks are alike.\" Using the latest\navailable data, we extend Kilian's (2009) analysis using the R ecosystem and\nprovide more evidence for Kilian's (2009) conclusions. Inference based on\nunknown conditional heteroskedasticity strengthens the conclusions. With the\nupdated shocks, we assess how a local economy responds to the global oil\nmarket, an application that is relevant to policymakers concerned with the\ntransition away from fossil fuels.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike. A Replication of Kilian (American Economic Review, 2009)\",\"authors\":\"Rich Ryan, Nyakundi Michieka\",\"doi\":\"arxiv-2409.00769\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The price of oil can rise because of a disruption to supply or an increase in\\ndemand. The nature of the price change determines the dynamic effects. As\\nKilian (2009) put it: \\\"not all oil price shocks are alike.\\\" Using the latest\\navailable data, we extend Kilian's (2009) analysis using the R ecosystem and\\nprovide more evidence for Kilian's (2009) conclusions. Inference based on\\nunknown conditional heteroskedasticity strengthens the conclusions. With the\\nupdated shocks, we assess how a local economy responds to the global oil\\nmarket, an application that is relevant to policymakers concerned with the\\ntransition away from fossil fuels.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501273,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"arXiv - ECON - General Economics\",\"volume\":\"9 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"arXiv - ECON - General Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.00769\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.00769","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
石油价格可能因供应中断或需求增加而上涨。价格变化的性质决定了动态效应。正如基里安(2009 年)所说,"并非所有的石油价格冲击都是一样的":"并非所有的石油价格冲击都是一样的。利用最新的可用数据,我们使用 R 生态系统扩展了 Kilian(2009 年)的分析,并为 Kilian(2009 年)的结论提供了更多证据。基于未知条件异方差的推断加强了结论。利用更新的冲击,我们评估了地方经济如何对全球石油市场做出反应,这一应用与关注从化石燃料过渡的政策制定者息息相关。
Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike. A Replication of Kilian (American Economic Review, 2009)
The price of oil can rise because of a disruption to supply or an increase in
demand. The nature of the price change determines the dynamic effects. As
Kilian (2009) put it: "not all oil price shocks are alike." Using the latest
available data, we extend Kilian's (2009) analysis using the R ecosystem and
provide more evidence for Kilian's (2009) conclusions. Inference based on
unknown conditional heteroskedasticity strengthens the conclusions. With the
updated shocks, we assess how a local economy responds to the global oil
market, an application that is relevant to policymakers concerned with the
transition away from fossil fuels.