Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering最新文献_第7页

Vaccine-induced reduction of COVID-19 clusters in school settings in Japan during the epidemic wave caused by B.1.1.529 (Omicron) BA.2, 2022. 在 2022 年 B.1.1.529（Omicron）BA.2 引起的流行病浪潮中，疫苗诱导减少了日本学校环境中的 COVID-19 集群。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2024312

Yuta Okada, Hiroshi Nishiura

{"title":"Vaccine-induced reduction of COVID-19 clusters in school settings in Japan during the epidemic wave caused by B.1.1.529 (Omicron) BA.2, 2022.","authors":"Yuta Okada, Hiroshi Nishiura","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2024312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2024312","url":null,"abstract":"Clusters of COVID-19 in high-risk settings, such as schools, have been deemed a critical driving force of the major epidemic waves at the societal level. In Japan, the vaccination coverage among students remained low up to early 2022, especially for 5-11-year-olds. The vaccination of the student population only started in February 2022. Given this background and considering that vaccine effectiveness against school transmission has not been intensively studied, this paper proposes a mathematical model that links the occurrence of clustering to the case count among populations aged 0-19, 20-59, and 60+ years of age. We first estimated the protected (immune) fraction of each age group either by infection or vaccination and then linked the case count in each age group to the number of clusters via a time series regression model that accounts for the time-varying hazard of clustering per infector. From January 3 to May 30, 2022, there were 4,722 reported clusters in school settings. Our model suggests that the immunity offered by vaccination averted 226 (95% credible interval: 219-232) school clusters. Counterfactual scenarios assuming elevated vaccination coverage with faster roll-out reveal that additional school clusters could have been averted. Our study indicates that even relatively low vaccination coverage among students could substantially lower the risk of clustering through vaccine-induced immunity. Our results also suggest that antigenically updated vaccines that are more effective against the variant responsible for the ongoing epidemic may greatly help decrease not only the incidence but also the unnecessary loss of learning opportunities among school-age students.","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"21 9","pages":"7087-7101"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142559245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Inference of a Susceptible-Infectious stochastic model. 易感-传染性随机模型的推理。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2024310

Giuseppina Albano, Virginia Giorno, Francisco Torres-Ruiz

{"title":"Inference of a Susceptible-Infectious stochastic model.","authors":"Giuseppina Albano, Virginia Giorno, Francisco Torres-Ruiz","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2024310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2024310","url":null,"abstract":"We considered a time-inhomogeneous diffusion process able to describe the dynamics of infected people in a susceptible-infectious (SI) epidemic model in which the transmission intensity function was time-dependent. Such a model was well suited to describe some classes of micro-parasitic infections in which individuals never acquired lasting immunity and over the course of the epidemic everyone eventually became infected. The stochastic process related to the deterministic model was transformable into a nonhomogeneous Wiener process so the probability distribution could be obtained. Here we focused on the inference for such a process, by providing an estimation procedure for the involved parameters. We pointed out that the time dependence in the infinitesimal moments of the diffusion process made classical inference methods inapplicable. The proposed procedure were based on the generalized method of moments in order to find a suitable estimate for the infinitesimal drift and variance of the transformed process. Several simulation studies are conduced to test the procedure, these include the time homogeneous case, for which a comparison with the results obtained by applying the maximum likelihood estimation was made, and cases in which the intensity function were time dependent with particular attention to periodic cases. Finally, we applied the estimation procedure to a real dataset.","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"21 9","pages":"7067-7083"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142559241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Editorial: Mathematical foundations in biological modelling and simulation. 社论：生物建模和模拟的数学基础。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2024311

Gilberto González-Parra, Hana M Dobrovolny

引用次数: 0

A discrete two time scales model of a size-structured population of parasitized trees. 寄生树规模结构种群的离散双时间尺度模型。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2024309

Rafael Bravo de la Parra, Ezio Venturino

{"title":"A discrete two time scales model of a size-structured population of parasitized trees.","authors":"Rafael Bravo de la Parra, Ezio Venturino","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2024309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2024309","url":null,"abstract":"The work presented a general discrete-time model of a population of trees affected by a parasite. The tree population was considered size-structured, and the parasite was represented by a single scalar variable. Parasite dynamics were assumed to act on a faster timescale than tree dynamics. The model was studied based on an associated nonlinear matrix model, in which the presence of the parasites was only reflected in the value of its parameters. For the model in all its generality, an explicit condition of viability/extinction of the parasite/tree community was found. In a simplified model with two size-classes of trees and particular forms of the vital rates, it was shown that the model undergoes a transcritical bifurcation and, likewise, a period-doubling bifurcation. It was found that, for any tree fertility rate that makes them viable without a parasite, if the parasite sufficiently reduces the survival of young trees, it can lead to the extinction of the entire community. The same cannot be assured if the parasite acts on adult trees. In situations where a high fertility rate coupled with a low survival rate of adult trees causes a non-parasitized population of trees to fluctuate, a parasite sufficiently damaging only young trees can stabilize the population. If, instead, the parasite acts on adult trees, we can find a destabilization condition on the tree population that brings them from a stable to an oscillating regime.","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"21 9","pages":"7040-7066"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142559236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global dynamics of a simple model for wild and sterile mosquitoes. 野生蚊子和不育蚊子简单模型的全球动态。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2024308

Yu Ichida, Yukihiko Nakata

{"title":"Global dynamics of a simple model for wild and sterile mosquitoes.","authors":"Yu Ichida, Yukihiko Nakata","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2024308","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2024308","url":null,"abstract":"There are known methods to manage the population dynamics of wild and sterile mosquitoes by releasing genetically engineered sterile mosquitoes. Even if a two-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations is considered as a simple mathematical model for developing release strategies, fully understanding the global behavior of the solutions is challenging, due to the fact that the probability of mating is ratio-dependent. In this paper, we combine a geometric approach called the time-scale transformation and blow-up technique with the center manifold theorem to provide a complete understanding of dynamical systems near the origin. Then, the global behavior of the solution of the two-dimensional ordinary differential equation system is classified in a two-parameter plane represented by the natural death rate of mosquitoes and the sterile mosquito release rate. We also offer a discussion of the sterile mosquito release strategy. In addition, we obtain a better exposition of the previous results on the existence and local stability of positive equilibria. This paper provides a framework for the mathematical analysis of models with ratio-dependent terms, and we expect that it will theoretically withstand the complexity of improved models.","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"21 9","pages":"7016-7039"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142559239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Editorial: Artificial Intelligence-based Security Applications and Services for Smart Cities. 社论：基于人工智能的智慧城市安全应用与服务。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2024307

Jong Hyuk Park

引用次数: 0

An SIS sex-structured influenza A model with positive case fatality in an open population with varying size. SIS 性别结构甲型流感模型，在不同规模的开放人群中具有正病死率。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2024306

Muntaser Safan, Bayan Humadi

引用次数: 0

Analyzing factors of daily travel distances in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic. 分析 COVID-19 大流行期间日本每日旅行距离的因素。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2024305

Masaya Mori, Yuto Omae, Yohei Kakimoto, Makoto Sasaki, Jun Toyotani

{"title":"Analyzing factors of daily travel distances in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic.","authors":"Masaya Mori, Yuto Omae, Yohei Kakimoto, Makoto Sasaki, Jun Toyotani","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2024305","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2024305","url":null,"abstract":"The global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is widely recognized as a significant concern, with human flow playing a crucial role in its propagation. Consequently, recent research has focused on identifying and analyzing factors that can effectively regulate human flow. However, among the multiple factors that are expected to have an effect, few studies have investigated those that are particularly associated with human flow during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, few studies have investigated how regional characteristics and the number of vaccinations for these factors affect human flow. Furthermore, increasing the number of verified cases in countries and regions with insufficient reports is important to generalize conclusions. Therefore, in this study, a group-level analysis was conducted for Narashino City, Chiba Prefecture, Japan, using a human flow prediction model based on machine learning. High-importance groups were subdivided by regional characteristics and the number of vaccinations, and visual and correlation analyses were conducted at the factor level. The findings indicated that tree-based models, especially LightGBM, performed better in terms of prediction. In addition, the cumulative number of vaccinated individuals and the number of newly infected individuals are likely explanatory factors for changes in human flow. The analyses suggested a tendency to move with respect to the number of newly infected individuals in Japan or Tokyo, rather than the number of new infections in the area where they lived when vaccination had not started. With the implementation of vaccination, attention to the number of newly infected individuals in their residential areas may increase. However, after the spread of vaccination, the perception of infection risk may decrease. These findings can contribute to the proposal of new measures for efficiently controlling human flows and determining when to mitigate or reinforce specific measures.","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"21 8","pages":"6936-6974"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142559225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-modal feature fusion with multi-head self-attention for epileptic EEG signals. 针对癫痫脑电信号的多模态特征融合与多头自我关注。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2024304

Ning Huang, Zhengtao Xi, Yingying Jiao, Yudong Zhang, Zhuqing Jiao, Xiaona Li

{"title":"Multi-modal feature fusion with multi-head self-attention for epileptic EEG signals.","authors":"Ning Huang, Zhengtao Xi, Yingying Jiao, Yudong Zhang, Zhuqing Jiao, Xiaona Li","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2024304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2024304","url":null,"abstract":"It is important to classify electroencephalography (EEG) signals automatically for the diagnosis and treatment of epilepsy. Currently, the dominant single-modal feature extraction methods cannot cover the information of different modalities, resulting in poor classification performance of existing methods, especially the multi-classification problem. We proposed a multi-modal feature fusion (MMFF) method for epileptic EEG signals. First, the time domain features were extracted by kernel principal component analysis, the frequency domain features were extracted by short-time Fourier extracted transform, and the nonlinear dynamic features were extracted by calculating sample entropy. On this basis, the features of these three modalities were interactively learned through the multi-head self-attention mechanism, and the attention weights were trained simultaneously. The fused features were obtained by combining the value vectors of feature representations, while the time, frequency, and nonlinear dynamics information were retained to screen out more representative epileptic features and improve the accuracy of feature extraction. Finally, the feature fusion method was applied to epileptic EEG signal classifications. The experimental results demonstrated that the proposed method achieves a classification accuracy of 92.76 ± 1.64% across the five-category classification task for epileptic EEG signals. The multi-head self-attention mechanism promotes the fusion of multi-modal features and offers an efficient and novel approach for diagnosing and treating epilepsy.","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"21 8","pages":"6918-6935"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142559232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Editorial: Dynamics of Deterministic Models of Biological Systems. 社论：生物系统确定性模型的动力学。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2024303

Alexander N Pisarchik

引用次数: 0