Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering最新文献

Forecasting infectious disease outbreak risks from vaccine sentiments on social media: A data-driven dynamical systems approach. 从社交媒体上的疫苗情绪预测传染病爆发风险：数据驱动的动态系统方法。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2025101

Zitao He, Chris T Bauch

{"title":"Forecasting infectious disease outbreak risks from vaccine sentiments on social media: A data-driven dynamical systems approach.","authors":"Zitao He, Chris T Bauch","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2025101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2025101","url":null,"abstract":"Early warning signals are vital in predicting critical transitions in complex dynamical systems. For behavioral epidemiology systems in particular, this includes shifts in vaccine sentiments that may precede disease outbreaks. Conventional statistical indicators, such as variance and lag-1 autocorrelation, often struggle in noisy environments and may fail in real-world scenarios. In this study, we leveraged universal signals of critical slowing down to train deep learning classifiers, specifically using long short-term memory (LSTM) and residual neural network (ResNet) architectures, for detecting early warning signals in disease-related social media time series. These classifiers were trained on simulated data from a stochastic coupled behavior-disease model with additive Lévy noise, a non-Gaussian noise that better reflects the heavy-tailed nature of real-world fluctuations. Our results show that these classifiers consistently outperform conventional indicators in both sensitivity and specificity on theoretical data while delivering quantitatively clear results that are easier to interpret on empirical data. Integrating deep learning with real-time social media monitoring offers a powerful tool for preventing disease outbreaks through proactive public health interventions.","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"22 10","pages":"2761-2779"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145193747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Backward bifurcation and periodic dynamics in a tuberculosis model with integrated control strategies. 具有综合控制策略的结核模型的后向分岔和周期动力学。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2025100

Dipo Aldila, Chidozie Williams Chukwu, Eka D A Ginting, F Fatmawati, Faishal Farrel Herdicho, Mohammad Ivan Azis, S Sutrisno

{"title":"Backward bifurcation and periodic dynamics in a tuberculosis model with integrated control strategies.","authors":"Dipo Aldila, Chidozie Williams Chukwu, Eka D A Ginting, F Fatmawati, Faishal Farrel Herdicho, Mohammad Ivan Azis, S Sutrisno","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2025100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2025100","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we present a unified mathematical model for tuberculosis (TB) that integrates key interventions: Mask use and media campaigns to raise community awareness and promote vaccine booster uptake. The model also incorporates slow-fast disease progression and limited treatment capacity. A mathematical analysis was conducted to determine the existence and stability of equilibrium points. From the mathematical analysis on the stability criteria of the TB-free equilibrium point, we show that TB can be eradicated if the basic reproduction number is below one. However, due to insufficient treatment capacity, a backward bifurcation may occur when the reproduction number equals one, enabling the coexistence of endemic and disease-free equilibria even when the reproduction number is below one. The parameter estimation is based on TB incidence data per 100,000 individuals in Indonesia. Sensitivity analysis reveald that although both interventions are effective, media campaigns combined with vaccine boosters are more impactful in reducing TB transmission than the use of masks. Numerical simulations further suggest the possibility of periodic outbreaks, indicating potential seasonal TB patterns. To explore adaptive intervention strategies, we extended the model using an optimal control framework. Our findings suggested that combined implementation of face masks and media campaigns is more effective than using either alone, particularly when the likelihood of rapid disease progression increases.","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"22 10","pages":"2720-2760"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145193755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Autopsy of SARS-CoV-2 spread dynamics in Ecuador using data assimilation techniques: A tale of two provinces. 使用数据同化技术解剖厄瓜多尔SARS-CoV-2传播动态：两个省的故事。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2025099

Paula Castro, Juan Carlos De Los Reyes

{"title":"Autopsy of SARS-CoV-2 spread dynamics in Ecuador using data assimilation techniques: A tale of two provinces.","authors":"Paula Castro, Juan Carlos De Los Reyes","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2025099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2025099","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we considered a Bayesian approach to estimating the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador, providing the first rigorous analysis of its progression in the country. Specifically, we applied variational data assimilation to estimate the parameters and initial conditions of a compartmental SARS-CoV-2 propagation model while accounting for structural data uncertainty through error covariance matrices. These optimized parameters correspond to maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) estimates, which, in a second stage, allow us to infer the posterior distribution of the parameters. We considered two different data sources: the official count of positive COVID-19 tests from the Ecuadorian Public Health Ministry (MSP) and an estimate of COVID-19-related deaths derived from excess mortality data recorded by the Ecuadorian Civil Registry (RC). We regard RC data as the closest approximation to the actual number of COVID-19 cases. The results highlight that, although there are differences between the estimates obtained using MSP data-generated in real time during the pandemic-and those based on positive cases inferred from excess mortality, the trends in the computed effective reproduction numbers coincide. This suggests that the methodology presented in this paper, and applied in real time during the pandemic, was able to accurately capture the evolution of the pandemic in Ecuador. Additionally, we conducted a comparative analysis of Ecuador's two most populous provinces, Pichincha and Guayas, which experienced the pandemic very differently, particularly in its initial stages. This study aimed to improve our understanding of the virus's spread in these provinces and provide insights into how epidemiological dynamics can vary within the same country.","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"22 10","pages":"2686-2719"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145193772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Integrating stochastic chemotaxis-haptotaxis mechanisms in cancer invasion: A multiscale derivation and computational perspective. 整合肿瘤侵袭的随机趋化-趋化机制：多尺度推导和计算视角。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2025097

Abdelghafour Atlas, Mostafa Bendahmane, Fahd Karami, Jacques Tagoudjeu, Mohamed Zagour

引用次数: 0

Mathematical modeling for Hypothenemus hampei and Colletotrichum kahawae co-dynamics with optimal control strategies. 基于最优控制策略的汉培火苗和炭疽菌协同动力学数学建模。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2025098

Abdisa Shiferaw Melese, Legesse Lemecha Obsu, Feyissa Kebede Bushu

{"title":"Mathematical modeling for Hypothenemus hampei and Colletotrichum kahawae co-dynamics with optimal control strategies.","authors":"Abdisa Shiferaw Melese, Legesse Lemecha Obsu, Feyissa Kebede Bushu","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2025098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2025098","url":null,"abstract":"Several pests and diseases are major factors challenging the coffee industry worldwide. Particularly, production of Coffee Arabica in many African countries has been affected by Hypothenemus hampei and Colletotrichum kahawae in a coffee farm. Pest(s) and disease(s) are commonly inter-related and can interact, because pests and pathogens have the same biophysical requirements in ecosystems. Assessment of coffee berries damage due to multiple pests and diseases is a necessary step in designing appropriate control strategies. In this paper, we developed a mathematical model describing the co-dynamics of Hypothenemus hampei (coffee berry borer, CBB) and Colletotrichum kahawae (coffee berry disease, CBD). The model used a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations to capture the interactions among the CBB pest population, the CBD fungal pathogen, and the healthy and infected coffee berry populations. Optimal control strategies were also incorporated to assess effective management approaches. Optimal control strategies were obtained by minimizing the number of pests and fungal pathogen population by incorporating two control variables such as biological control and cultural practices. The existence of optimal controls was examined using Pontryagin's minimum principle. The Hamiltonian was constructed, and adjoint equations were solved to minimize the cost functional. Lastly, from different scenarios, the numerical simulations were performed to illustrate the model's co-dynamics with and without optimal control strategies.","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"22 10","pages":"2672-2685"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145193770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A fatigue driving detection method based on local maximum refined composite multi-scale normalized dispersion entropy and SVM. 基于局部最大细化复合多尺度归一化色散熵和支持向量机的疲劳驾驶检测方法。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2025096

Zhanghong Wang, Haitao Zhu, Huaquan Chen, Bei Liu

{"title":"A fatigue driving detection method based on local maximum refined composite multi-scale normalized dispersion entropy and SVM.","authors":"Zhanghong Wang, Haitao Zhu, Huaquan Chen, Bei Liu","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2025096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2025096","url":null,"abstract":"Multi-scale dispersion entropy (MDE) has been extensively applied to capture the nonlinear features of electroencephalography (EEG) signals for fatigue driving detection. However, MDE suffers from information loss and limited robustness during the extraction of EEG signal nonlinearities. To address these issues, a fatigue driving detection approach integrating local maximum refined composite multi-scale normalized dispersion entropy (LMRCMNDE) with support vector machines (SVM) is introduced. To begin, the refined composite multi-scale dispersion entropy (RCMDE) technique is presented. Next, the segmented averaging in the coarse-graining process is substituted with local maximum calculation to alleviate information loss. Finally, normalization of the entropy values is performed to enhance the robustness of feature parameters, leading to the formation of LMRCMNDE. LMRCMNDE serves as the feature descriptor for fatigue driving EEG signals, while SVM is employed for classification. Compared with the MDE-SVM and RCMDE-SVM approaches, the LMRCMNDE-SVM method achieves higher recognition accuracy, reaching up to 98%. The proposed method can effectively identify the fatigue state of drivers and provide a new reliable detection method for automatic fatigue driving detection.","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"22 10","pages":"2627-2640"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145193689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Considering experimental frame rates and robust segmentation analysis of piecewise-linear microparticle trajectories. 考虑实验帧率和分段线性粒子轨迹的鲁棒分割分析。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2025-08-08 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2025095

Keisha J Cook, Nathan Rayens, Linh Do, Christine K Payne, Scott A McKinley

{"title":"Considering experimental frame rates and robust segmentation analysis of piecewise-linear microparticle trajectories.","authors":"Keisha J Cook, Nathan Rayens, Linh Do, Christine K Payne, Scott A McKinley","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2025095","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2025095","url":null,"abstract":"The movement of intracellular cargo transported by molecular motors is commonly marked by switches between directed motion and stationary pauses. The predominant measure for assessing movement is effective diffusivity, which predicts the mean-squared displacement of particles over long timescales. In this work, we considered an alternative analysis regime that focused on shorter timescales and relied on automated segmentation of paths. Due to intrinsic uncertainty in changepoint analysis, we highlighted the importance of statistical summaries that were robust with respect to the performance of segmentation algorithms. In contrast to effective diffusivity, which averaged over multiple behaviors, we emphasized tools that highlighted the different motor-cargo states, with an eye toward identifying biophysical mechanisms that determined emergent whole-cell transport properties. By developing a Markov chain model for noisy, continuous, piecewise-linear microparticle movement, and associated mathematical analysis, we provided insight into a common question posed by experimentalists: how does the choice of observational frame rate affect what is inferred about transport properties?","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"22 10","pages":"2595-2626"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145193778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Stability and bifurcation analysis in predator-prey system involving Holling type-II functional response. 包含Holling ii型功能反应的捕食-食饵系统的稳定性和分岔分析。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2025-08-04 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2025094

Jocirei D Ferreira, Wilmer L Molina, Jhon J Perez, Aida P González

引用次数: 0

Mathematical models to characterize the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Mexico, USA. 描述美国新墨西哥州COVID-19大流行早期阶段的数学模型。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2025093

Annika Vestrand, Gilberto González-Parra

{"title":"Mathematical models to characterize the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Mexico, USA.","authors":"Annika Vestrand, Gilberto González-Parra","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2025093","DOIUrl":"10.3934/mbe.2025093","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we use a variety of mathematical models to characterize the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Mexico. We use both empirical and mechanistic models based on differential equations to examine the dynamics of the pandemic in New Mexico and in carefully selected New Mexico counties. For the empirical model, we use the exponential growth model to compute and estimate the growth rate, basic reproduction number $ mathcal{R}_0 $ and effective reproduction number $ mathcal{R}_t $. In addition, we use the SIR model to estimate $ mathcal{R}_0 $, using the new weekly COVID cases and also cumulative cases. We found that for the beginning of the early phase of the pandemic, the most populous counties had basic reproduction numbers greater than one. In addition, it was found that the transmission rates of some counties varied significantly during the early phase of the pandemic. Moreover, $ mathcal{R}_0 $ dropped below one during some phases for some counties when using the SIR model. This suggests that non-pharmaceutical interventions had some impact on reducing the burden of the pandemic and that people's behavior changed during this early phase.","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"22 10","pages":"2526-2558"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12485090/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145193735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

On macrophage response to primary Mycobacterium tuberculosis in humans. 巨噬细胞对人原发性结核分枝杆菌的反应。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2025092

Eduardo Ibargüen-Mondragón, Sandra P Hidalgo-Bonilla, Miller Cerón Gómez

引用次数: 0