Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering最新文献

{"title":"Multi-seasonal modelling of Carica papaya and <i>Paracoccus marginatus</i> interactions under climate change.","authors":"Martin Dountio, Maximilien Onana, Samuel Bowong","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2026092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2026092","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The papaya mealybug, <i>Paracoccus marginatus</i>, has emerged as a formidable threat to global tropical agriculture, capable of inducing devastating yield losses through its invasive sap-sucking behavior. While conventional models often overlook environmental complexities, in this study, we introduced a sophisticated multi-seasonal mathematical framework designed to unravel the intricate interplay between mealybug population dynamics, fluctuating climatic conditions, and the persistence of off-season natural reservoirs. Sensitivity analysis highlighted how parameter influences shift across seasons, while our qualitative analysis revealed a dual-threshold mechanism, governed by the local offspring number $ mathcal{N}_0 $ and the global stability threshold $ mathcal{N}_g $, as the definitive driver of the system's long-term evolution. While $ mathcal{N}_0 < 1 $ analytically ensures local asymptotic stability, our theoretical discussion suggested the existence of a conjectured regime of bistability within the threshold range $ mathcal{N}_g < mathcal{N}_0 < 1 $. This finding highlighted a critical regime where the success of eradication efforts is strictly contingent upon the initial infestation levels. Furthermore, by employing uniform persistence theory, we proved that the pest inevitably establishes a permanent foothold whenever $ mathcal{N}_0 > 1 $. To mitigate these agricultural losses, we evaluated the efficacy of two distinct intervention frameworks: (ⅰ) Pulsed biological control via impulsive parasitoid releases and (ⅱ) a synergistic integrated pest management (IPM) strategy combining biopesticides with natural enemies. Our simulations demonstrated that while impulsive parasitoid releases alone achieved substantial suppression, reducing immature and mature female populations by 89.35% and 93.04%, respectively, and recovering 75.92% of papaya production, the integrated approach proved transformative. By synchronizing biopesticide applications with parasitoid pulses, mealybug populations were nearly decimated, with reduction rates reaching 99.70% for immatures and an exhaustive 99.90% for adults. Although this intensive suppression yielded a 44.92% increase in net productivity, its primary value lies in providing a robust, non-linear pathway toward total pest eradication, effectively breaking the cycle of reinfestation.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"23 8","pages":"2516-2580"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148908036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A reaction-diffusion delay model for spatial tumor virotherapy with optimal control.","authors":"Fathalla A Rihan","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2026091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2026091","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Oncolytic virotherapy uses viruses that selectively infect and lyse tumor cells while promoting antitumor immunity. Because viral spread, tumor growth, and immune-cell migration are spatially heterogeneous, purely temporal models may miss important treatment dynamics. We develop a reaction-diffusion delay model for spatial tumor virotherapy with a virus-induced cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response, thereby incorporating tumor growth, infection, lysis, immune-mediated killing, diffusion, and delayed immune activation. We prove positivity, local well-posedness, and global boundedness under explicit sufficient conditions, and analyze spatially homogeneous equilibria and modal stability. Then, we extend the model with a numerical optimal-control formulation for viral administration and immune stimulation, thus minimizing tumor burden, treatment cost, and excessive CTL proliferation. Simulations indicate that tumor-virus-immune dynamics can remain spatially heterogeneous and that the computed optimal control schedules improve tumor suppression for the chosen parameter set.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"23 8","pages":"2489-2515"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148908017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to \"On the rate of clinical AIDS on diagnosis: The mathematical interpretation and goal for the successful control of HIV/AIDS\" [<i>Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering</i> 22(8) (2025) 2105-2119].","authors":"Seiko Fujiwara, Hiroshi Nishiura","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2026090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2026090","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"23 8","pages":"2487-2488"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148908079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A latent burden-HVPG mathematical framework for threshold mapping and delay-differential scenario analysis in portal hypertension.","authors":"M Fakharany, Thoraya N Alharthi, M A Elfouly","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2026089","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2026089","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Portal hypertension is clinically defined by invasive hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) thresholds, whereas routine assessment relies on non-invasive markers that are biologically heterogeneous and only indirectly related to portal pressure. We have developed a computational framework designed as a threshold-translation and scenario-exploration tool rather than a predictive or mechanistic model with three explicitly separated components: a data-driven empirical core, a literature-informed delayed dynamic layer, and a synthetic scenario module. Using HVPG-linked datasets, the empirical core has constructed a constrained latent burden score from liver stiffness, inverse platelet count, spleen diameter, inverse albumin, and bilirubin and has compared it with an equal-weight score. The constrained score has improved threshold discrimination more than continuous prediction at clinically relevant HVPG levels. A monotone burden-to-HVPG mapping has translated the latent burden axis into the clinically interpretable HVPG scale and has yielded cohort-specific burden thresholds. Leave-one-source-out (LOSO) technique shows that pooled burden learning is informative but not source-invariant, indicating limited transportability across cohorts. To examine delayed separation between latent burden evolution and visible pressure manifestation, we have introduced a delay differential equation model with literature-informed parameters. The resulting temporal gaps are illustrative scenario outputs and not patient-specific predictions. Overall, the framework provides a transparent, threshold-oriented computational approach for translating heterogeneous biomarkers into interpretable HVPG thresholds while linking data-based burden learning with scenario-based dynamic simulation.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"23 8","pages":"2462-2486"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148908020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling cancer dynamics in an inflammatory environment.","authors":"Rachid Ouifki, Evans Afenya, Suneel Mundle","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2026088","DOIUrl":"10.3934/mbe.2026088","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The phenomenon of inflammation is increasingly being implicated as a promoter of cancer development. Accordingly, linkages between different cancer types and inflammation are traced. Findings in the biomedical literature related to inflammatory footprints in cancer development are highlighted. Existing mathematical models, even though few, that involve inflammation and cancer are reviewed. With emphasis on the need for increased modeling activity in the area, the biomedical discussions and modeling reviews then lead into the proposal of a simple mathematical model that serves as an additional candidate model for studying cancer dynamics in an inflammatory environment. This is looked at as a way of building upon the relatively few mathematical modeling approaches that may be useful for providing insights as the biomedical studies and investigations proceed. The proposed model consists of a system of three ordinary differential equations tracking the interaction dynamics of cancer cells, inflammatory cells, and normal tissue. Subsequently, model steady states are analyzed and most importantly given necessary interpretations in biomedical contexts. To address parameter variability, uncertainty analysis using Latin Hypercube sampling is used to explore output uncertainty, while partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) sensitivity analysis identifies key driving parameters. PRCC analysis identifies three immunologically distinct pathways: one drives a protective anti-tumor response, promoting inflammatory cells that suppress cancer while sparing normal tissue; another drives tumor expansion and tissue damage while dampening inflammation, suggesting a pathogenic role; and a third supports normal tissue maintenance but indirectly fuels cancer growth and may limit inflammatory cells via resource competition. These findings underscore the challenge of supporting normal tissue without inadvertently fueling cancer growth.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"23 8","pages":"2429-2461"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148908047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimal control approach to developing sex-structured release strategies for dengue prevention.","authors":"Evan Gibbs, Jordy Cevallos-Chavez, Khaled Elhassan, Jimena Sanchez, Unnati Gohil, Heliana Arias Castro","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2026087","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2026087","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Dengue remains a public health challenge due to the persistence of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> populations and the limited effectiveness of medical and vector control interventions. The release of <i>Wolbachia</i>-infected mosquitoes has been used in multiple regions; yet, release protocols are often heuristically structured, with limited optimization. In particular, the impacts of mosquito sex structure and strain-specific effects remain unclear. This study develops a sex-structured dynamical model that links within-vector <i>Wolbachia</i> dynamics, such as cytoplasmic incompatibility and vertical transmission, with between-host dengue transmission. An optimal control framework is used to determine cost-effective releases of male and female mosquitoes over a finite intervention horizon, with mosquito dispersal on a finite time interval. The cost effectiveness of a release program relies on minimizing releases and dengue cases. The approach is applied to three <i>Wolbachia</i> strains, <i>w</i>AlbB, <i>w</i>Mel, and <i>w</i>MelPop, to assess how strain-specific fitness and viral blocking influence optimal release plans. The analysis identified sex-structured strategies that diverge from in-field protocols, supporting the notion that commonly used plans may benefit from optimization by sex. Additionally, differences were noted among strains, which suggests that optimal sex-structured releases may vary with <i>Wolbachia</i> strain used.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"23 8","pages":"2393-2428"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148907226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamics of a network-based SIR epidemic model with double impulsive controls.","authors":"Gui Guan, Zhenyuan Guo, Yanyu Xiao, Yuming Chen","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2026086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2026086","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A network-based susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model is proposed to study the spread of infectious diseases, thereby incorporating vertical transmission and a saturated incidence rate. Additionally, it introduces double impulsive control strategies, including pulse vaccination and screening with treatment at distinct fixed intervals. Dynamical behaviors of the formulated model are analyzed using two types of transmission thresholds, namely $ R^0_{k_i} $ and $ widehat{R^0_{k_i}} $. By applying the Floquet theorem and comparison principle, the system admits a disease-free periodic solution that is globally asymptotically stable if $ maxlimits_{i = 1, 2, ldots, n}widehat{R^0_{k_i}} < 1 $. The persistence of disease is confirmed from the uniform persistence of the Poincaré map when $ frac{1}{1+alpha}maxlimits_{i = 1, 2, ldots, n}R^0_{k_i} > 1 $, where $ alpha $ is the saturated coefficient in the saturation infection. Scenario studies are performed to numerically evaluate the impact of various parameters on the disease dynamics, and the effectiveness of double impulsive controls. It can be concluded that synthetical double impulsive controls are more efficient at eradicating the disease compared with only either of them.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"23 8","pages":"2367-2392"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148908054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A virtual epidemics approach to HIV dynamics in the United States (1981-2030).","authors":"Necibe Tuncer, Yuganthi R Liyanage, Vincent D Holmlund, Maia Martcheva","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2026085","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2026085","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in the United States has changed substantially since it was first identified in 1981; yet, progress toward ending the HIV epidemic targets remains uncertain. In this study, we examined the progress of the United States using HIV epidemic data from 1981 to 2025 and project trends through 2030 using mathematical transmission models. Two models were considered: A transmission model without pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and an extended model incorporating PrEP-related behavioral dynamics. Structural and practical identifiability analyses were used to assess whether model parameters could be reliably estimated from available surveillance data. Although both models were structurally identifiable under fixed assumptions, only the model without PrEP was practically identifiable with current surveillance data. We introduced the concept of virtual epidemics (VEs) and generated a collection of epidemic trajectories by repeatedly fitting the identifiable model to bootstrapped surveillance data. These VEs reproduced historical HIV incidence trends and yielded a range of plausible future outcomes. Our simulations suggested that, under current patterns of diagnosis, treatment, and prevention, the goal of reducing $ 90% $ of the HIV epidemic in new infections by 2030 was unlikely to be met without additional intervention efforts.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"23 8","pages":"2323-2366"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148908051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Why accurate risk stratification matters in HIV population modeling.","authors":"Dobromir Dimitrov, Laura Matrajt, Xinze Ren, Sarah E Stansfield, Mia Moore","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2026084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2026084","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Accurate representation of behavioral risk heterogeneity significantly influences the projections of Human Immunodeficiency Virus transmission models without receiving the deserved attention when models are structured. As a result, models widely vary in how they stratify risk and how individuals progress through risk groups. We systematically evaluated how these two structural features-the number of risk groups and assumptions about risk progression (comparing three mechanisms of fixed, age-based, or mixed risk)-shape epidemic projections. Using deterministic HIV models stratified by HIV stage and behavioral risk, we simulated populations over 250 years under standardized initial conditions. Our results show that risk-progression mechanisms strongly influence long-term epidemic behavior. Fixed-risk models gradually shift the population toward lower-risk groups, thus reducing HIV incidence over time. In contrast, age-based progression sustains a larger high-risk population and produces a substantially higher long-term incidence, while mixed progression yields intermediate outcomes. The granularity of risk stratification further modifies the projections: models with more risk groups generate significantly different incidence trajectories and equilibrium population sizes under age-based and mixed progression, whereas fixed-risk models produce similar long-term results with a different number of risk groups. These findings highlight that both risk-progression assumptions and the level of stratification can meaningfully alter HIV forecasts. Therefore, the careful treatment of population risk heterogeneity is essential to generate reliable projections and to guide intervention strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"23 8","pages":"2307-2322"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148907472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantification of various types of uncertainty in biological computational models using fuzzy mass functions.","authors":"Isai Chavarri, Yanyan He, Minyi Chen, John W Cain, Lindsay Waldrop","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2026081","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2026081","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We develop a unified uncertainty propagation framework for computational models involving stochastic variability together with two distinct forms of epistemic uncertainty: vagueness and incomplete knowledge. In this framework, stochastic uncertainty is represented by random variables, while the epistemic components are modeled by random fuzzy sets with fuzzy mass functions generalized from Dempster-Shafer theory and fuzzy set theory. Using generalized polynomial chaos expansions and extension principles, the propagated uncertainty in output expectation is then quantified efficiently by a fuzzy mass function. We also introduce a distance measure between fuzzy mass functions and use it to analyze the error in the resulting numerical approximations. The proposed approach is demonstrated on several simple examples and applied to two biological systems: the Mitchell-Schaeffer model governed by a system of ordinary differential equations, and a computational model of olfaction governed by the Navier-Stokes equations.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"23 8","pages":"2228-2258"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148907276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}