Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering最新文献

{"title":"Intra-specific diversity and adaptation modify regime shifts dynamics under environmental change.","authors":"Thomas Imbert, Jean-Christophe Poggiale, Mathias Gauduchon","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2024342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2024342","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Environmental changes are a growing concern, as they exert pressures on ecosystems. In some cases, such changes lead to shifts in ecosystem structure. However, species can adapt to changes through evolution, and it is unclear how evolution interacts with regime shifts, which restricts ecosystem management strategies. Here, we used a model of prey population with evolution and intra-specific trait diversity, and simulated regime shifts through changes in predation pressure. We then explored interactions between evolution, diversity, and shifts in population density. Evolution induced delayed or early regime shifts, and altered the recovery of populations. Such changes depended on the relative speed of evolution and change of predation pressure, as well as on the initial state of the population. Evolution also influenced population resilience, which was important when considering strong environmental variability. For instance, storms can spontaneously increase mortality and induce shifts. Furthermore, environmental variability induced even higher mortality if the phenotypic diversity of populations is large. Some phenotypes were more vulnerable to environmental changes, and such increases in mortality favor shifts to decreases in density. Thus, population management needs to consider diversity, evolution, and environmental change altogether to better anticipate regime shifts on eco-evolutionary time scales. Here, evolution and diversity showed complex interactions with population shift dynamics. Investigating the influence of higher diversity levels, such as diversity at a community level, should be another step towards anticipating changes in ecosystems and communities.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"21 12","pages":"7783-7804"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142980525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prescriptive temporal modeling approach using climate variables to forecast dengue incidence in Córdoba, Colombia.","authors":"Ever Medina, Myladis R Cogollo, Gilberto González-Parra","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2024341","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2024341","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We present a modeling strategy to forecast the incidence rate of dengue in the department of Córdoba, Colombia, thereby considering the effect of climate variables. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model is fitted under a cross-validation approach, and we examine the effect of the exogenous variables on the performance of the model. This study uses data of dengue cases, precipitation, and relative humidity reported from years 2007 to 2021. We consider three configurations of sizes training set-test set: 182-13,189-6, and 192-3. The results support the theory of the relationship between precipitation, relative humidity, and dengue incidence rate. We find that the performance of the models improves when the time series models are previously adjusted for each of the exogenous variables, and their forecasts are used to determine the future values of the dengue incidence rate. Additionally, we find that the configurations 189-6 and 192-3 present the most consistent results with regard to the model's performance in the training and test data sets.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"21 12","pages":"7760-7782"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142980622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An inherently discrete-time <i>SIS</i> model based on the mass action law for a heterogeneous population.","authors":"Marcin Choiński","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2024340","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2024340","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we introduce and analyze a discrete-time model of an epidemic spread in a heterogeneous population. As the heterogeneous population, we define a population in which we have two groups which differ in a risk of getting infected: a low-risk group and a high-risk group. We construct our model without discretization of its continuous-time counterpart, which is not a common approach. We indicate functions that reflect the probability of remaining healthy, which are based on the mass action law. Additionally, we discuss the existence and local stability of the stability states that appear in the system. Moreover, we provide conditions for their global stability. Some of the results are expressed with the use of the basic reproduction number $ mathcal{R}_0 $. The novelty of our paper lies in assuming different values of every coefficient that describe a given process in each subpopulation. Thanks to that, we obtain the pure population's heterogeneity. Our results are in a line with expectations - the disease free stationary state is locally stable for $ mathcal{R}_0 < 1 $ and loses its stability after crossing $ mathcal{R}_0 = 1 $. We supplement our results with a numerical simulation that concerns the real case of a tuberculosis epidemic in Poland.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"21 12","pages":"7740-7759"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142980453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating biomarkers for hemostatic disorders into computational models of blood clot formation: A systematic review.","authors":"Mohamad Al Bannoud, Tiago Dias Martins, Silmara Aparecida de Lima Montalvão, Joyce Maria Annichino-Bizzacchi, Rubens Maciel Filho, Maria Regina Wolf Maciel","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2024339","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2024339","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In the pursuit of personalized medicine, there is a growing demand for computational models with parameters that are easily obtainable to accelerate the development of potential solutions. Blood tests, owing to their affordability, accessibility, and routine use in healthcare, offer valuable biomarkers for assessing hemostatic balance in thrombotic and bleeding disorders. Incorporating these biomarkers into computational models of blood coagulation is crucial for creating patient-specific models, which allow for the analysis of the influence of these biomarkers on clot formation. This systematic review aims to examine how clinically relevant biomarkers are integrated into computational models of blood clot formation, thereby advancing discussions on integration methodologies, identifying current gaps, and recommending future research directions. A systematic review was conducted following the PRISMA protocol, focusing on ten clinically significant biomarkers associated with hemostatic disorders: D-dimer, fibrinogen, Von Willebrand factor, factor Ⅷ, P-selectin, prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), antithrombin Ⅲ, protein C, and protein S. By utilizing this set of biomarkers, this review underscores their integration into computational models and emphasizes their integration in the context of venous thromboembolism and hemophilia. Eligibility criteria included mathematical models of thrombin generation, blood clotting, or fibrin formation under flow, incorporating at least one of these biomarkers. A total of 53 articles were included in this review. Results indicate that commonly used biomarkers such as D-dimer, PT, and APTT are rarely and superficially integrated into computational blood coagulation models. Additionally, the kinetic parameters governing the dynamics of blood clot formation demonstrated significant variability across studies, with discrepancies of up to 1, 000-fold. This review highlights a critical gap in the availability of computational models based on phenomenological or first-principles approaches that effectively incorporate affordable and routinely used clinical test results for predicting blood coagulation. This hinders the development of practical tools for clinical application, as current mathematical models often fail to consider precise, patient-specific values. This limitation is especially pronounced in patients with conditions such as hemophilia, protein C and S deficiencies, or antithrombin deficiency. Addressing these challenges by developing patient-specific models that account for kinetic variability is crucial for advancing personalized medicine in the field of hemostasis.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"21 12","pages":"7707-7739"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142980521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on bearing fault diagnosis based on a multimodal method.","authors":"Hao Chen, Shengjie Li, Xi Lu, Qiong Zhang, Jixining Zhu, Jiaxin Lu","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2024338","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2024338","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As an essential component of mechanical systems, bearing fault diagnosis is crucial to ensure the safe operation of the equipment. However, vibration data from bearings often exhibit non-stationary and nonlinear features, which complicates fault diagnosis. To address this challenge, this paper introduces a novel multi-scale time-frequency and statistical features fusion model (MTSF-FM). Specifically, the method first employs continuous wavelet transform to generate time-frequency images, capturing local and global features of the signal at different scales. Contrast enhancement techniques are then used to improve the visual quality of these images. Next, features are extracted from the time-frequency images using a visual geometry group network to obtain deep features of image modalities. In parallel, 13 key features are extracted from the original vibration data in the time-frequency domain. Convolutional neural networks are then employed for deep feature extraction. Experimental results demonstrate that MTSF-FM achieves accuracies of 98.5% and 95.1% on two public datasets. These findings highlight the effectiveness of MTSF-FM in analyzing complex vibration data and propose a novel method for bearing fault diagnosis.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"21 12","pages":"7688-7706"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142980624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Balancing mitigation strategies for viral outbreaks.","authors":"Hamed Karami, Pejman Sanaei, Alexandra Smirnova","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2024337","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2024337","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Control and prevention strategies are indispensable tools for managing the spread of infectious diseases. This paper examined biological models for the post-vaccination stage of a viral outbreak that integrate two important mitigation tools: social distancing, aimed at reducing the disease transmission rate, and vaccination, which boosts the immune system. Five different scenarios of epidemic progression were considered: (ⅰ) the \"no control\" scenario, reflecting the natural evolution of a disease without any safety measures in place, (ⅱ) the \"reconstructed\" scenario, representing real-world data and interventions, (ⅲ) the \"social distancing control\" scenario covering a broad set of behavioral changes, (ⅳ) the \"vaccine control\" scenario demonstrating the impact of vaccination on epidemic spread, and (ⅴ) the \"both controls concurrently\" scenario incorporating social distancing and vaccine controls simultaneously. By comparing these scenarios, we provided a comprehensive analysis of various intervention strategies, offering valuable insights into disease dynamics. Our innovative approach to modeling the cost of control gave rise to a robust computational algorithm for solving optimal control problems associated with different public health regulations. Numerical results were supported by real data for the Delta variant of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"21 12","pages":"7650-7687"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142980562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From the Editor-in-Chief.","authors":"Yang Kuang","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2024336","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2024336","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"21 11","pages":"7648-7649"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142856518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Agent-based modeling for the tumor microenvironment (TME).","authors":"Hasitha N Weerasinghe, Pamela M Burrage, Dan V Nicolau Jr, Kevin Burrage","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2024335","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2024335","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Cancer is a disease that arises from the uncontrolled growth of abnormal (tumor) cells in an organ and their subsequent spread into other parts of the body. If tumor cells spread to surrounding tissues or other organs, then the disease is life-threatening due to limited treatment options. This work applies an agent-based model to investigate the effect of intra-tumoral communication on tumor progression, plasticity, and invasion, with results suggesting that cell-cell and cell-extracellular matrix (ECM) interactions affect tumor cell behavior. Additionally, the model suggests that low initial healthy cell densities and ECM protein densities promote tumor progression, cell motility, and invasion. Furthermore, high ECM breakdown probabilities of tumor cells promote tumor invasion. Understanding the intra-tumoral communication under cellular stress can potentially lead to the design of successful treatment strategies for cancer.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"21 11","pages":"7621-7647"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142856508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Turing patterns in a networked vegetation model.","authors":"Xiaomei Bao, Canrong Tian","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2024334","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2024334","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A vegetation model composed of water and plants was proposed by introducing a weighted graph Laplacian operator into the reaction-diffusion dynamics. We showed the global existence and uniqueness of the solution via monotone iterative sequence. The parameter space of Turing patterns for plant behavior is obtained based on the analysis of the eigenvalues of the Laplacian of weighted graph, while the amplitude equation determining the stability of Turing patterns is obtained by weakly nonlinear analysis. We also show that the optimal rainfall is only determined by the density of the water. By some numerical simulations, we examine the individual effect of diffusion term on the formation of regular Turing patterns. We show that the large diffusion induces stable Turing patterns.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"21 11","pages":"7601-7620"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142856545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global stability for a mosquito-borne disease model with continuous-time age structure in the susceptible and relapsed host classes.","authors":"Maria Guadalupe Vazquez-Peña, Cruz Vargas-De-León, Jorge Velázquez-Castro","doi":"10.3934/mbe.2024333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2024333","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Mosquito-borne infectious diseases represent a significant public health issue. Age has been identified as a key risk factor for these diseases, and another phenomenon reported is relapse, which involves the reappearance of symptoms after a symptom-free period. Recent research indicates that susceptibility to and relapse of mosquito-borne diseases are frequently age-dependent. This paper proposes a new model to better capture the dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases by integrating two age-dependent factors: chronological age and asymptomatic-infection age. Chronological age refers to the time elapsed from the date of birth of the host to the present time. On the other hand, asymptomatic infection age denotes the time elapsed since the host became asymptomatic after the primary infection. The system of integro-differential equations uses flexible, unspecified functions to represent these dependencies, assuming they are integrable. We analyzed the global stability of both the disease-free and endemic equilibrium states using the direct Lyapunov method with Volterra-type Lyapunov functionals. Additionally, the paper explores several special cases involving well-known host-vector models.</p>","PeriodicalId":49870,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering","volume":"21 11","pages":"7582-7600"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142856520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}