Meteorological Applications最新文献

{"title":"Fog climatology at Shanghai Pudong International Airport","authors":"Ran Hao,&nbsp;Rui Lyu,&nbsp;Xue Hao,&nbsp;Jun Yi,&nbsp;Weijie Wang,&nbsp;Tiantao Cheng,&nbsp;Bo Xu","doi":"10.1002/met.2191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2191","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using 22-year ground observations on meteorological variables, we conducted a statistical analysis to reveal fog characteristics at Shanghai Pudong International Airport (SPIA). Fog events were classified by fog types using an objective method. Two types of advection fogs are dominant in fog events at SPIA, followed by radiation fogs. Different fogs have evident annual and monthly variations in frequency. Advection fog mostly appear from February to April, while radiation fog is mainly between November and February. Six synoptic patterns associated with fogs were determine by a self-organizing maps cluster method, two of which, namely ‘west of marine high pressure’ and ‘inverted trough’, are most favourable for the formation of advection fogs, whereas ‘bottom of weak cold high-pressure’ is favourable for radiation fogs. The frequency of advection fog occurrence exhibits temporal fluctuations with distinct peaks occurring 2–3 h after sunset, around midnight, and 1–2 h before sunrise, while almost all radiation fog occur in the second half of the night, and favourable conditions for fog onset become more effective with the length of the night. Radiation fog exhibits a longer duration than advection fog and tends to result in lower visibility. The prevalent wind direction for the formation of advection fog is generally from the east to the southeast, whereas radiation fog is typically associated with westerly winds. The temperature and air pressure during the formation of both advection and radiation fogs follow a normal distribution in most seasons. More fog characteristics were categorized by fog types and seasons.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2191","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140114343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of an evaluation indicator for highway climate change adaptation projects based on analytical hierarchy process in South Korea","authors":"Moon-Soo Song,&nbsp;Sang-Guk Yum,&nbsp;Hong-Sic Yun,&nbsp;Sang-Hoon Park,&nbsp;Sang-Won Bae,&nbsp;Jae-Joon Lee","doi":"10.1002/met.2180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2180","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Owing to climate change, abnormal climate phenomena occur frequently, damaging aging highway facilities. Therefore, it is necessary to develop adaptation projects for highway systems. Adaptation projects focus on mitigating the impact of climate change on highway facilities and enabling safe use. The present study aims to develop quantified evaluation indicators that are necessary for planning and selecting appropriate climate change adaptation projects. By analysing previous studies, the most important factors to be considered in the evaluation process of climate change adaptation projects were defined, and 20 preliminary evaluation indicators were divided into three layers. A feasibility study for each class was performed on the preliminary evaluation indicators by an expert panel; 16 evaluation indicators were selected through a feasibility study, and the weight of each indicator was calculated using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method. The priority of the evaluation indicators was service improvement through adaptation projects (weight 8.76), cost reduction and job creation (weight 8.46), and climate change impact reduction and vulnerability reduction (weight 8.31). These quantified evaluation indicators can help organizations that manage highways respond to climate change and establish adaptation projects.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2180","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140063780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Literature survey of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions in the southern hemisphere","authors":"Steven Phakula,&nbsp;Willem A. Landman,&nbsp;Christien J. Engelbrecht","doi":"10.1002/met.2170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2170","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction has gained momentum in the recent past as a need for predictions between the weather forecasting timescale and seasonal timescale exists. The availability of S2S databases makes prediction and predictability studies possible over all the regions of the globe. Most S2S studies are, however, relevant to the northern hemisphere. In this review, the S2S literature relevant to the southern hemisphere (SH) are presented. Predictive skill, sources of predictability, and the application of S2S predictions are discussed. Indications from the subseasonal predictability studies for the SH regions suggest that predictive skill is limited to 2 weeks in general, particularly for temperature and rainfall, which are the variables most frequently investigated. However, temperature has enhanced skill compared to rainfall. More S2S prediction studies that include the quantification of the sources of predictability and the identification of windows of opportunity need to be conducted for the SH, particularly for the southern African region. The African continent is vulnerable to weather- and climate-related disasters, and S2S forecasts can assist in alleviating the risk of such disasters.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2170","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139937347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"LD-Net: A novel one-stage knowledge distillation algorithm for lightning detection network","authors":"Junjie Fu,&nbsp;Yingxiang Li,&nbsp;Jiawei Liu,&nbsp;Yulin Ji,&nbsp;Jiandan Zhong","doi":"10.1002/met.2171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2171","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Lightning often causes death, injury, and damage to various facilities and equipment. Accurately detecting the spatial location of lightning occurrence by predicting thunderstorms and lightning is of great significance. Traditional lightning detection systems detect lightning by measuring the sound, light, and electromagnetic field information radiated by lightning. These methods typically have two problems. First, the detection process of lightning signals is susceptible to electromagnetic interference. Second, the equipment cost is high and is not friendly to some lightning detection tasks only targeted at specific scenarios. In order to detect lightning more conveniently, we propose a lightning detection model based on deep learning networks. With the increase in the use of cameras in modern society, designing lightning object detection networks based on deep learning is possible. However, two problems have been found in existing practice: (1) When strong lightning meteorological phenomena occur, the lightning features in the image are covered by bright electric lights, and convolutional neural networks cannot distinguish between strong lightning scenes and strong ultraviolet scenes. (2) The performance of convolutional neural networks is often related to the model's size. The larger the model, the stronger the performance of the network. However, in practical application scenarios, computing resources are insufficient to use sufficiently large networks. In this paper, we propose a simple and effective lightning object detection network (LD-Net) and use a foreground-background segmentation algorithm to locate frames containing lightning in the video. After using the knowledge distillation-based model compression method, the mAP of the lightning object detection network with a backbone net of resnet with 18-layer (LD-Net-18) can reach 82.4%. We hope that the proposed LD-Net can serve as a simple and powerful alternative to traditional lightning detection methods, enhancing efficiency in lightning detection tasks.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2171","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139937277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Probabilistic skill of statistically downscaled ECMWF S2S forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures for weeks 1–4 over South Africa","authors":"Steven Phakula,&nbsp;Willem A. Landman,&nbsp;Christien J. Engelbrecht","doi":"10.1002/met.2176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2176","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The probabilistic forecast skill level of statistically downscaled European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts is determined in predicting maximum and minimum temperatures for weeks 1–4 lead times during 20-year December–January–February (DJF) seasons from 2001 to 2020 over South Africa. Skilful S2S forecasts are vital in assisting decision-makers in the development of contingency planning for any eventualities that may arise because of weather and climate phenomena. Extreme high- and low-temperature events over a prolonged period can lead to hyperthermia and hypothermia, respectively, and can lead to loss of life. The results from the relative operating characteristic (ROC) and reliability diagrams indicate that the ECMWF S2S model has skill in predicting maximum temperature up to week 3 ahead, particularly over the central and eastern parts of South Africa. The ROC scores indicate that the model has skill in predicting minimum temperature up to week 4 ahead for the above-normal category, particularly over the central and eastern parts of South Africa. Reliability diagrams indicate that the model has a tendency of overestimating the below-normal category when predicting both maximum and minimum temperatures for weeks 1–4 lead times over South Africa. Furthermore, canonical correlation analysis (CCA) pattern analysis suggests that when there are anomalously positive and negative predicted 850-hPa geopotential heights located over South Africa, there are anomalously hot and cold conditions during the DJF seasons over most parts of South Africa, respectively. These results suggests that statistical downscaling of model forecasts can improve forecast skill. Moreover, the results suggest that there is potential for S2S predictions in South Africa, and as such, S2S prediction system for maximum and minimum temperatures can be developed.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2176","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139915692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A seamless blended multi-model ensemble approach to probabilistic medium-range weather pattern forecasts over the UK","authors":"Robert Neal,&nbsp;Joanne Robbins,&nbsp;Ric Crocker,&nbsp;Dave Cox,&nbsp;Keith Fenwick,&nbsp;Jonathan Millard,&nbsp;Jason Kelly","doi":"10.1002/met.2179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2179","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper describes a new seamless blended multi-model ensemble configuration of an existing probabilistic medium- to extended-range weather pattern forecasting tool (called Decider) run operationally at the Met Office. In its initial configuration, the tool calculated and presented probabilistic weather pattern forecast information for five individual ensemble forecasting systems, which varied in terms of their number of ensemble members, horizontal resolution, update frequencies and forecast lead time. This resulted in multiple forecasts for the same validity time which varied in terms of forecast skill depending on the lead time in question. This presented challenges for end-users (e.g., operational meteorologists) in terms of knowing which forecast output is best to use and at which lead time, as well as knowing what to do in situations where forecasts varied between ensembles. To get around these challenges, a new seamless blended multi-model ensemble configuration has been implemented operationally, comprising of output from five separate ensembles, and provides a single best forecast from day one out to day 45. Objective verification for a set of eight weather pattern groups covering forecasts initialized over a 6-year period (2017–2022) shows that the seamless blended multi-model ensemble forecasts are at least as good as, if not better than the best performing individual model.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2179","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139901689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Probabilistic seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation using complex systems modelling and comparison with dynamical models","authors":"Yiming Sun,&nbsp;Ian Simpson,&nbsp;Hua-Liang Wei,&nbsp;Edward Hanna","doi":"10.1002/met.2178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2178","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Dynamical seasonal forecast models are improving with time but tend to underestimate the amplitude of atmospheric circulation variability and to have lower skill in predicting summer variability than in winter. Here, we construct Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average models with eXogenous inputs (NARMAX) to develop the analysis of drivers of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and jet-stream variability, focusing on the East Atlantic (EA) and Scandinavian (SCA) patterns as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. New time series of these indices are developed from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Geopotential height data from the ERA5 reanalysis are used to generate the EOFs. Sets of predictors with known associations with these drivers are developed and used to formulate a sliding-window NARMAX model. This model demonstrates a high degree of predictive accuracy, as indicated by its average correlation coefficients over the testing period (2006–2021): 0.78 for NAO, 0.83 for EA and 0.68 for SCA. In comparison, the SEAS5 and GloSea5 dynamical forecast models exhibit lower correlations with observed circulation changes: for NAO, the correlation coefficients are 0.51 for SEAS5 and 0.34 for GloSea5, for EA they are 0.15 and 0.09, respectively, and for SCA, they are 0.28 and 0.24, respectively. Comparison of NARMAX predictions with forecasts and hindcasts from the SEAS5 and GloSea5 models highlights areas where NARMAX can be used to help improve seasonal forecast skill and inform the development of dynamical models, especially in the case of summer.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2178","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139744917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contrasting trends of carbon emission from savanna and boreal forest fires during 1999–2022","authors":"Yunfan Liu,&nbsp;Aijun Ding","doi":"10.1002/met.2177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2177","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Biomass burning (BB) as an important atmospheric carbon source has significant environmental and climatic influence. The frequent extreme BB cases in recent years have raised extensive concerns, yet the latest changes in BB emission on a global scale are not fully understood. Here, we systematically quantify the changes in BB carbon emission for 1999–2022 by fire types and on different scales based on the Global Fire Emissions Database with small fires (GFED4s) dataset. We find contrasting trends of savanna and boreal forest fires persistent over the study period, shaping the variation of global total BB carbon emission. The receding savanna fire drives a declining global BB carbon emission at −8 Tg C year⁻¹ (−0.4% year⁻¹) for 1999–2022, while an upturn of global carbon emission (5 Tg C year⁻¹, 0.3% year⁻¹) occurs in the recent decadal period (2008–2022) due to intensified boreal forest fires. The burned area decouples from carbon emission in terms of the changing tendency, as exhibited by the decreasing global burned area after 2008. Regionally, the fire carbon emission enhancement over the past 15 years (2008–2022) mainly comes from the boreal forests in northwestern North America, northeastern Siberia, and parts of the savanna area, all of which coincide with local climate change toward higher fire proneness. This study reveals a climate-driven aggravation of the BB carbon emission, especially in high-latitude boreal forests, and calls for attention to its potential impacts and effective fire management strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2177","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139744962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental ingredients that lead to tornado outbreak and tornado failure: A comparison between two similar recurving tropical cyclones","authors":"Zhaoming Li,&nbsp;Lanqiang Bai,&nbsp;Hongxing Chu,&nbsp;Xianxiang Huang","doi":"10.1002/met.2175","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2175","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recurving tropical cyclones (TCs) can sometimes produce tornado outbreaks, while some TCs with similar tracks and intensities may produce none of tornado, which makes it challenging to assess tornado risk within recurving TCs. This study investigates two recurving TCs, Typhoon Yagi (2018) and Typhoon In-Fa (2021), that made landfall in eastern China. Despite the similar recurving tracks and intensities, Yagi produced 11 tornadoes while In-Fa produced none. Results show that both TCs were characterized by similar large-scale conditions that were dynamically favourable for tornadoes during the recurvature process. The non-tornadic In-Fa even featured a higher shear and helicity environment in its northeast sector than did the tornado-productive Yagi. The greatest difference between Yagi and In-Fa is the thermodynamic instability owing to the different lower–middle-tropospheric lapse rates that are attributable to the differences in air trajectories at low levels. In-Fa featured marginal instability due to the cooler air at low levels because almost all of the air parcels came from the Pacific Ocean while most air parcels for Yagi came from the warm land. The cooler low-level air tends to create higher relative humidity in In-Fa's interior and thus leads to widespread precipitation which in turn also contributes to the low-level cooling. The different air trajectories are demonstrated related to the TC's translation speed, size and synoptic characteristics days before TC's landfall. Numerical simulations suggest that the upward motions within the widespread precipitation regions of In-Fa are overall weaker than those of Yagi due to the limited instability in the former. These findings suggest that even though two TCs were characterized by similar tracks, intensities and large-scale forcings, their different low-level air pathways may have significant influence on priming the mesoscale environment for supercell or tornado formation.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2175","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139720136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Use of ZDR columns for early detection of severe convection within the operational radar network of the United Kingdom","authors":"Chun Hay Brian Lo,&nbsp;Thorwald H. M. Stein,&nbsp;Robert W. Scovell,&nbsp;Chris D. Westbrook,&nbsp;Timothy Darlington,&nbsp;Humphrey W. Lean","doi":"10.1002/met.2159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2159","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Differential reflectivity (&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;Z&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;DR&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ {Z}_{mathrm{DR}} $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;) columns were observed using a Met Office three-dimensional radar composite. An algorithm for automatic detection of &lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;Z&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;DR&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ {Z}_{mathrm{DR}} $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; columns was developed, based on &lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;Z&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;DR&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;≥&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;1.0&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ {Z}_{mathrm{DR}}ge 1.0 $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; dB and &lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;Z&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;H&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;≥&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;10&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ {Z}_{mathrm{H}}ge 10 $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; dBZ. Across three case days, detected &lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;Z&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;DR&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ {Z}_{mathrm{DR}} $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; columns were found to precede severe convection in tracked convective cells with a range of lead times from 0 to 20 min depending on the case day. Requiring maxima above 1.4 dB and 30 dBZ of &lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;Z&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;DR&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ {Z}_{mathrm{DR}} $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; and &lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;Z&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;H&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ {Z}_{mathrm{H}} $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; respectively was an appropriate second condition for all three cases although the skill in the early detection of severe convection varied across case days. Despite the high probability of detections, the high false alarm rate accompanied by low","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2159","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139494451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}