Meteorological Applications最新文献

{"title":"Rainstorm and high-temperature disaster risk assessment of territorial space in Beijing, China","authors":"Chen Cheng,&nbsp;Xiaoyi Fang,&nbsp;Mingcai Li,&nbsp;Yuanhui Yang,&nbsp;Ya Gao,&nbsp;Shuo Zhang,&nbsp;Ying Yu,&nbsp;Yonghong Liu,&nbsp;Wupeng Du","doi":"10.1002/met.2140","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2140","url":null,"abstract":"<p>It is important for territorial spatial planning to master meteorological disaster risk under the conditions of climate change and then carry out risk adaptation planning according to local conditions. Taking Beijing, a large city in China, as an example, a meteorological disaster risk assessment model was established based on the framework of hazard factors, disaster-bearing body exposure, and vulnerability of underlying surface. Combined with 11 years of observation data from 293 high-density weather stations, the rainstorm and high-temperature risks of urban, agriculture, and ecological spaces were studied. The results show that (1) rainstorms and high-temperature are mainly distributed in the built-up areas of plain towns, which are the climate risk factors that need to be considered. (2) The central city of Beijing is at a high risk of rainstorms and high temperature, indicating that the underlying surface and disaster-bearing body are highly vulnerable to meteorological disasters. (3) In suburbs with agricultural land, there is a certain rainstorm risk in Fangshan and Daxing districts, and a risk of high temperatures in the southern part of Tongzhou and Daxing. (4) The risk of high temperatures in the ecological space (eco-zone) is relatively low, but the rainstorm risk is relatively high in Pinggu and Miyun. (5) The strategies of coping with rainstorm and high-temperature disaster risk in Beijing's territorial space planning were discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"30 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2140","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49507164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Meteorological conditions during periods of low wind speed and insolation in Germany: The role of weather regimes","authors":"Fabian Mockert,&nbsp;Christian M. Grams,&nbsp;Tom Brown,&nbsp;Fabian Neumann","doi":"10.1002/met.2141","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2141","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Renewable power generation from wind and solar energy is strongly dependent on the weather. To plan future sustainable energy systems that are robust to weather variability, a better understanding of why and when periods of low wind and solar power output occur is valuable. We call such periods of low wind speed and insolation “Dunkelflauten”, the German word for “dark wind lulls”. In this article, we analyse the meteorological conditions during Dunkelflauten in Germany by applying the concept of weather regimes. Weather regimes are quasi-stationary, recurrent and persistent large-scale circulation patterns that explain multi-day atmospheric variability (5–15 days). We use a regime definition that allows us to distinguish four different types of blocked regimes, characterized by high-pressure situations in the North Atlantic-European region. We find that Dunkelflauten in Germany occur mainly in winter when the solar power output is low due to the seasonal cycle of solar irradiance and wind power output drops for several consecutive days. A high-pressure system over Germany, associated with the European Blocking regime, is responsible for most of the Dunkelflauten. Dunkelflauten during the Greenland Blocking regime are associated with colder temperatures than usual, causing higher electricity demand, and would present a particular challenge as space heating becomes electrified in the future. Furthermore, we show that Dunkelflauten occur predominantly when a weather regime is well established and persists longer than usual. Our study provides novel insight into the occurrence and meteorological characteristics of Dunkelflauten, which is essential for planning resilient energy systems and supporting grid operators to prepare for potential shortages in supply.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"30 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2141","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49285559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An improved GNSS remote sensing technique for 3D distribution of tropospheric water vapor","authors":"Ankang Long,&nbsp;Shirong Ye,&nbsp;Pengfei Xia","doi":"10.1002/met.2136","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2136","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Water vapor plays an extremely important role in the monitoring and prediction of weather, and GNSS tomography can obtain 3D spatiotemporal change information and reliable water vapor profiles. In this paper, an improved global navigation satellite system (GNSS) tropospheric tomography technique using an ERA5 (the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis) product is developed. First, the ERA5 product was adopted to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of water vapor, and a water vapor density threshold defining the top of the tomography was determined; then, the height of the grid top (GT) of different seasons was obtained through linear fitting; finally, the water vapor value between GT and tropopause is constrained using the data of the ERA5 product as the initial value. The new method for using the ERA5 product to determine the height of the GT of the tomographic grid reduces the height of the top layer of the grid and increases the number of effective GNSS rays. Data from nine CORS stations in Hong Kong in 2019 were selected for experiments. The results showed that the new algorithm increased the number of effective satellite signals by 14%. In addition, the ERA5 data, the radiosonde data, and the COSMIC-2 data were used as reference values. The accuracy of the water vapor density obtained by the algorithm was improved by 25%, 17% and 9%, respectively.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"30 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2136","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42389265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Novel evaluation of sub-seasonal precipitation ensemble forecasts for identifying high-impact weather events associated with the Indian monsoon","authors":"Seshagiri Rao Kolusu,&nbsp;Marion Mittermaier,&nbsp;Joanne Robbins,&nbsp;Raghavendra Ashrit,&nbsp;Ashis K. Mitra","doi":"10.1002/met.2139","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2139","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We assess the skill of the fully coupled lagged ensemble forecasts from GloSea5-GC2, for the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale up to 4 weeks, with the aim of understanding how these forecasts might be used in a Ready-Set-Go style decision-making framework. Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG-GPM) are used to seamlessly verify these ensemble forecasts up to monthly timescales whereby forecast and observed precipitation fields are summed over a sequence of increasing lead time accumulation windows (LTAWs), from 1d1d up to 2w2w. Results show that model biases grow with increasing LTAW and with ensemble member age. The S2S model exhibits both wet and dry biases across different parts of the Indian domain. The S2S model error grows from around 10 mm for a 24-h accumulation to 50 mm for the 2-week LTAWs. The actual skill and potential skill of the ensemble forecasts reveal that the potential skill is not always greater than actual skill everywhere. The sensitivity to the number and age of ensemble members was tested, with potential skill showing more impact from the exclusion of older members at all LTAWs. We conclude that the older lagged members do not necessarily add value by being included in the short to medium range or even for the extended range forecasts. GloSea5-GC2 shows some skill in detecting large accumulations, which are not always tied to locations where they are climatologically frequent.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"30 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2139","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45448383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Greenland ice sheet rainfall climatology, extremes and atmospheric river rapids","authors":"Jason E. Box,&nbsp;Kristian P. Nielsen,&nbsp;Xiaohua Yang,&nbsp;Masashi Niwano,&nbsp;Adrien Wehrlé,&nbsp;Dirk van As,&nbsp;Xavier Fettweis,&nbsp;Morten A. Ø. Køltzow,&nbsp;Bolli Palmason,&nbsp;Robert S. Fausto,&nbsp;Michiel R. van den Broeke,&nbsp;Baojuan Huai,&nbsp;Andreas P. Ahlstrøm,&nbsp;Kirsty Langley,&nbsp;Armin Dachauer,&nbsp;Brice Noël","doi":"10.1002/met.2134","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2134","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Greenland rainfall has come into focus as a climate change indicator and from a variety of emerging cryospheric impacts. This study first evaluates rainfall in five state-of-the-art numerical prediction systems (NPSs) (CARRA, ERA5, NHM-SMAP, RACMO, MAR) using in situ rainfall data from two regions spanning from land onto the ice sheet. The new EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Arctic Regional ReAnalysis (CARRA), with a relatively fine (2.5 km) horizontal grid spacing and extensive within-model-domain observational initialization, has the lowest average bias and highest explained variance relative to the field data. ERA5 inland wet bias versus CARRA is consistent with the field data and other research and is presumably due to more ERA5 topographic smoothing. A CARRA climatology 1991–2021 has rainfall increasing by more than one-third for the ice sheet and its peripheral ice masses. CARRA and in situ data illuminate extreme (above 300 mm per day) local rainfall episodes. A detailed examination CARRA data reveals the interplay of mass conservation that splits flow around southern Greenland and condensational buoyancy generation that maintains along-flow updraft ‘rapids’ 2 km above sea level, which produce rain bands within an atmospheric river interacting with Greenland. CARRA resolves gravity wave oscillations that initiate as a result of buoyancy offshore, which then amplify from terrain-forced uplift. In a detailed case study, CARRA resolves orographic intensification of rainfall by up to a factor of four, which is consistent with the field data.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"30 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2134","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43262437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Towards nowcasting in Europe in 2030","authors":"Stephan Bojinski,&nbsp;Dick Blaauboer,&nbsp;Xavier Calbet,&nbsp;Estelle de Coning,&nbsp;Frans Debie,&nbsp;Thibaut Montmerle,&nbsp;Vesa Nietosvaara,&nbsp;Katie Norman,&nbsp;Luis Bañón Peregrín,&nbsp;Franziska Schmid,&nbsp;Nataša Strelec Mahović,&nbsp;Kathrin Wapler","doi":"10.1002/met.2124","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2124","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The increasing impact of severe weather over Europe on lives and weather-sensitive economies can be mitigated by accurate 0–6 h forecasts (nowcasts), supporting a vital ‘last line of defence’ for civil protection and many other applications. Recognizing lack of skill in some complex situations, often at convective and local sub-kilometre scales and associated with rare events, we identify seven recommendations with the aim to improve nowcasting in Europe by the national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) by 2030. These recommendations are based on a review of user needs, the state of the observing system, techniques based on observations and high-resolution numerical weather models, as well as tools, data and infrastructure supporting the nowcasting community in Europe. Denser and more accurate observations are necessary particularly in the boundary layer to better characterize the ingredients of severe storms. A key driver for improvement is next-generation European satellite data becoming available as of 2023. Seamless ensemble prediction methods to produce enhanced weather forecasts with 0–24 h lead times and probabilistic products require further development. Such products need to be understood and interpreted by skilled forecasters operating in an evolving forecasting context. We argue that stronger co-development and collaboration between providers and users of nowcasting-relevant data and information are key ingredients for progress. We recommend establishing pan-European nowcasting consortia, better exchange of data, common development platforms and common verification approaches as key elements for progressing nowcasting in Europe in this decade.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"30 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2124","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41756906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variability in the occurrence of thermal seasons in Poland in 1961–2020","authors":"Marek Kejna,&nbsp;Aleksandra Pospieszyńska","doi":"10.1002/met.2132","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2132","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The article analyses the variability of thermal seasons in Poland in 1961–2020. Based on the average monthly air temperature values from 55 stations, the onset and end dates as well as the duration of the six thermal seasons were calculated. Taking into account the thermal thresholds of 0°C, 5°C and 15°C for each year, early spring, spring, summer, autumn, early winter and winter can be distinguished. A significant spatial differentiation of the dates of the beginning and duration of the thermal seasons in Poland was observed. The influence of continentalism (in the east) and oceanic climate (in the west) and the influence of the Baltic Sea are noticeable, and in mountainous regions, altitude above sea level is the main factor. The air temperature in Poland increases at the rate of 0.3°C–0.4°C/10 years. This causes significant changes in the occurrence and duration of the thermal seasons. An early beginning of early spring and spring was observed. Summer arrives earlier and is significantly longer, becoming the longest season of the year (above 110 days in the south of Poland). Autumn and early winter are delayed and get shorter, whereas winter comes much later. Throughout the country, winter is 44 days shorter, and in the north-west it does not occur at all. Changes in the onset of thermal seasons are a clear indicator of progressing global warming. They have also a decisive impact on the environment and human activity.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"30 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2132","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49334850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wind observations from hot-air balloons and the application in an NWP model","authors":"Evert I. F. de Bruijn,&nbsp;Fred C. Bosveld,&nbsp;Siebren de Haan,&nbsp;Gert-Jan Marseille,&nbsp;Albert A. M. Holtslag","doi":"10.1002/met.2128","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2128","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, we report on a wind observation method based on the movement of hot-air balloons (HABs). A quality assessment was carried out by comparing against wind observations at the meteorological tower of Cabauw in the Netherlands during May–September 2018, and the obtained standard deviations in error were <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>σ</mi>\u0000 <mi>u</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 <mo>=</mo>\u0000 <mn>0.65</mn>\u0000 <mspace></mspace>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mi>ms</mi>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>−</mo>\u0000 <mn>1</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {sigma}_u=0.65;{mathrm{ms}}^{-1} $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> and <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>σ</mi>\u0000 <mi>v</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 <mo>=</mo>\u0000 <mn>0.69</mn>\u0000 <mspace></mspace>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mi>ms</mi>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>−</mo>\u0000 <mn>1</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {sigma}_v=0.69;{mathrm{ms}}^{-1} $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> for the measured zonal and meridional wind components, respectively. Subsequent comparison against short-term forecasts of the HARMONIE-AROME model showed a standard deviation of 2.5 ms⁻¹ for the wind vector difference. From the HAB observation set, a case was selected with a rapidly changing wind field belonging to a small intensifying depression. The HAB wind observation was applied in data assimilation as a proof of principle for a single-observation experiment. It is shown that in a complex baroclinic situation, the model state is slightly improved.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"30 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2128","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45332305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimizing convection‐permitting ensemble via selection of the coarse ensemble driving members","authors":"P. Khain, A. Shtivelman, Y. Levi, A. Baharad, E. Amitai, Yizhak Carmona, Elyakom Vadislavsky, Amit Savir, Nir Stav","doi":"10.1002/met.2137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2137","url":null,"abstract":"Nowadays, several global ensembles (GEs) which consist of several tens of members are being run operationally. In order to locally improve the probabilistic forecasts, various forecasting centers and research institutes utilize the GEs as initial and boundary conditions to drive regional convection permitting ensembles (RCPEs). RCPEs demand significant computer resources and often a limited number of ensemble members is affordable, which is smaller than the size of the driving GE. Since each RCPE member obtains the initial and boundary conditions from a specific GE member, there are many options to select the GE members. The study uses the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) GE consisting of 50 members, to drive 20 members of COSMO model RCPE over the Eastern Mediterranean. We compare various approaches for automatic selection of the GE members and propose several optimal methods, including a random selection, which consistently lead to a better performance of the driven RCPE. The comparison includes verification of near surface variables and precipitation using various verification metrics. The results are validated using several methods of model physics perturbation. Besides the selection of the optimal ensemble configurations, we show that at high precipitation intensities spatial up‐scaling is recommended in order to obtain useful probabilistic forecasts.","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"51406518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on rainbow probabilistic forecast model based on meteorological conditions in ZhaoSu region","authors":"Jing Liu,&nbsp;Jin Yu,&nbsp;Shen Lin,&nbsp;Guodong Zhang,&nbsp;Shuo Zhang,&nbsp;Min Li,&nbsp;Xiaoyue Lin","doi":"10.1002/met.2131","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2131","url":null,"abstract":"<p>An analysis of artificial rainbow observations in ZhaoSu region from 2017 to 2019 shows that rainbows mainly occur between 16:00 and 22:00 (LST) from April to September. The analysis based on the meteorological observation in the same period shows that precipitation, temperature, wind force and cloud variety contribute to rainbow formation. Approximately 90% of rainbows appear one hour after rainfall, and 100% of rainbows occur when the Beaufort wind scale is less than level 8 following Beaufort wind scale (less than 20.9 m/s), the temperature is greater than 8°C, and the cloud amount is greater than 40%, respectively. A rainbow probabilistic forecast model is constructed based on five meteorological factors. The forecast ability of the model is independently assessed by comparing rainbow forecasts and its observation in 2020. The Brier score is 0.20, indicating that the objective model is effective for rainbow forecasts.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"30 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2131","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43108211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}