Meteorological Applications最新文献

{"title":"Towards nowcasting in Europe in 2030","authors":"Stephan Bojinski,&nbsp;Dick Blaauboer,&nbsp;Xavier Calbet,&nbsp;Estelle de Coning,&nbsp;Frans Debie,&nbsp;Thibaut Montmerle,&nbsp;Vesa Nietosvaara,&nbsp;Katie Norman,&nbsp;Luis Bañón Peregrín,&nbsp;Franziska Schmid,&nbsp;Nataša Strelec Mahović,&nbsp;Kathrin Wapler","doi":"10.1002/met.2124","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2124","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The increasing impact of severe weather over Europe on lives and weather-sensitive economies can be mitigated by accurate 0–6 h forecasts (nowcasts), supporting a vital ‘last line of defence’ for civil protection and many other applications. Recognizing lack of skill in some complex situations, often at convective and local sub-kilometre scales and associated with rare events, we identify seven recommendations with the aim to improve nowcasting in Europe by the national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) by 2030. These recommendations are based on a review of user needs, the state of the observing system, techniques based on observations and high-resolution numerical weather models, as well as tools, data and infrastructure supporting the nowcasting community in Europe. Denser and more accurate observations are necessary particularly in the boundary layer to better characterize the ingredients of severe storms. A key driver for improvement is next-generation European satellite data becoming available as of 2023. Seamless ensemble prediction methods to produce enhanced weather forecasts with 0–24 h lead times and probabilistic products require further development. Such products need to be understood and interpreted by skilled forecasters operating in an evolving forecasting context. We argue that stronger co-development and collaboration between providers and users of nowcasting-relevant data and information are key ingredients for progress. We recommend establishing pan-European nowcasting consortia, better exchange of data, common development platforms and common verification approaches as key elements for progressing nowcasting in Europe in this decade.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2124","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41756906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variability in the occurrence of thermal seasons in Poland in 1961–2020","authors":"Marek Kejna,&nbsp;Aleksandra Pospieszyńska","doi":"10.1002/met.2132","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2132","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The article analyses the variability of thermal seasons in Poland in 1961–2020. Based on the average monthly air temperature values from 55 stations, the onset and end dates as well as the duration of the six thermal seasons were calculated. Taking into account the thermal thresholds of 0°C, 5°C and 15°C for each year, early spring, spring, summer, autumn, early winter and winter can be distinguished. A significant spatial differentiation of the dates of the beginning and duration of the thermal seasons in Poland was observed. The influence of continentalism (in the east) and oceanic climate (in the west) and the influence of the Baltic Sea are noticeable, and in mountainous regions, altitude above sea level is the main factor. The air temperature in Poland increases at the rate of 0.3°C–0.4°C/10 years. This causes significant changes in the occurrence and duration of the thermal seasons. An early beginning of early spring and spring was observed. Summer arrives earlier and is significantly longer, becoming the longest season of the year (above 110 days in the south of Poland). Autumn and early winter are delayed and get shorter, whereas winter comes much later. Throughout the country, winter is 44 days shorter, and in the north-west it does not occur at all. Changes in the onset of thermal seasons are a clear indicator of progressing global warming. They have also a decisive impact on the environment and human activity.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2132","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49334850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wind observations from hot-air balloons and the application in an NWP model","authors":"Evert I. F. de Bruijn,&nbsp;Fred C. Bosveld,&nbsp;Siebren de Haan,&nbsp;Gert-Jan Marseille,&nbsp;Albert A. M. Holtslag","doi":"10.1002/met.2128","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2128","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, we report on a wind observation method based on the movement of hot-air balloons (HABs). A quality assessment was carried out by comparing against wind observations at the meteorological tower of Cabauw in the Netherlands during May–September 2018, and the obtained standard deviations in error were <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>σ</mi>\u0000 <mi>u</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 <mo>=</mo>\u0000 <mn>0.65</mn>\u0000 <mspace></mspace>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mi>ms</mi>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>−</mo>\u0000 <mn>1</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {sigma}_u=0.65;{mathrm{ms}}^{-1} $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> and <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>σ</mi>\u0000 <mi>v</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 <mo>=</mo>\u0000 <mn>0.69</mn>\u0000 <mspace></mspace>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mi>ms</mi>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>−</mo>\u0000 <mn>1</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {sigma}_v=0.69;{mathrm{ms}}^{-1} $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> for the measured zonal and meridional wind components, respectively. Subsequent comparison against short-term forecasts of the HARMONIE-AROME model showed a standard deviation of 2.5 ms⁻¹ for the wind vector difference. From the HAB observation set, a case was selected with a rapidly changing wind field belonging to a small intensifying depression. The HAB wind observation was applied in data assimilation as a proof of principle for a single-observation experiment. It is shown that in a complex baroclinic situation, the model state is slightly improved.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2128","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45332305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimizing convection‐permitting ensemble via selection of the coarse ensemble driving members","authors":"P. Khain, A. Shtivelman, Y. Levi, A. Baharad, E. Amitai, Yizhak Carmona, Elyakom Vadislavsky, Amit Savir, Nir Stav","doi":"10.1002/met.2137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2137","url":null,"abstract":"Nowadays, several global ensembles (GEs) which consist of several tens of members are being run operationally. In order to locally improve the probabilistic forecasts, various forecasting centers and research institutes utilize the GEs as initial and boundary conditions to drive regional convection permitting ensembles (RCPEs). RCPEs demand significant computer resources and often a limited number of ensemble members is affordable, which is smaller than the size of the driving GE. Since each RCPE member obtains the initial and boundary conditions from a specific GE member, there are many options to select the GE members. The study uses the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) GE consisting of 50 members, to drive 20 members of COSMO model RCPE over the Eastern Mediterranean. We compare various approaches for automatic selection of the GE members and propose several optimal methods, including a random selection, which consistently lead to a better performance of the driven RCPE. The comparison includes verification of near surface variables and precipitation using various verification metrics. The results are validated using several methods of model physics perturbation. Besides the selection of the optimal ensemble configurations, we show that at high precipitation intensities spatial up‐scaling is recommended in order to obtain useful probabilistic forecasts.","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"51406518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on rainbow probabilistic forecast model based on meteorological conditions in ZhaoSu region","authors":"Jing Liu,&nbsp;Jin Yu,&nbsp;Shen Lin,&nbsp;Guodong Zhang,&nbsp;Shuo Zhang,&nbsp;Min Li,&nbsp;Xiaoyue Lin","doi":"10.1002/met.2131","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2131","url":null,"abstract":"<p>An analysis of artificial rainbow observations in ZhaoSu region from 2017 to 2019 shows that rainbows mainly occur between 16:00 and 22:00 (LST) from April to September. The analysis based on the meteorological observation in the same period shows that precipitation, temperature, wind force and cloud variety contribute to rainbow formation. Approximately 90% of rainbows appear one hour after rainfall, and 100% of rainbows occur when the Beaufort wind scale is less than level 8 following Beaufort wind scale (less than 20.9 m/s), the temperature is greater than 8°C, and the cloud amount is greater than 40%, respectively. A rainbow probabilistic forecast model is constructed based on five meteorological factors. The forecast ability of the model is independently assessed by comparing rainbow forecasts and its observation in 2020. The Brier score is 0.20, indicating that the objective model is effective for rainbow forecasts.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2131","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43108211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nowcast for cloud top height from Himawari-8 data based on deep learning algorithms","authors":"Zhuofu Yu,&nbsp;Zhonghui Tan,&nbsp;Shuo Ma,&nbsp;Wei Yan","doi":"10.1002/met.2130","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2130","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cloud top height (CTH) indicates the vertical development of clouds. Intensely vertically developing clouds are usually accompanied by extreme weather systems and pose a threat to aviation safety. Therefore, nowcast for CTH is necessary and meaningful to guide aviation flights. In this study, we researched the nowcast for CTH (mainly within 0–2 h) based on deep learning algorithms. With Sichuan Province as the study area, we collected CTH data of Himawari-8 satellite from 2018 to 2020. Convolutional-long-short-term-memory (ConvLSTM) and trajectory-gated-recurrent-unit (TrajGRU) were used to build nowcast models in the encoder-forecaster framework. The optical flow model and persistence were used as benchmarks. The results showed that the deep learning models did not have significant advantages over the benchmarks in the first 20 min. However, with increasing nowcast time, the nowcast skills of the deep learning models were gradually exhibited. For all four seasons, the TrajGRU-based model showed superior performance over the ConvLSTM-based model and the benchmarks. In spring, autumn and winter, the results yielded by the ConvLSTM-based model were second only to those of the TrajGRU-based model. However, in summer, the ConvLSTM-based model did not outperform the persistence. The results of the optical flow model worsened significantly with increasing nowcast time. In contrast to the persistence, the optical flow model had almost no nowcast skills after 40 min.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2130","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48498286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Editorial: Atmospheric processes and applications in urban, coastal and mountainous terrain","authors":"Meinolf Kossmann,&nbsp;Lorenzo Giovannini","doi":"10.1002/met.2129","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2129","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This editorial introduces the contributions to the Special Issue ‘Atmospheric processes and applications in urban, coastal, and mountainous terrain’ of the journal <i>Meteorological Applications</i>. The scientific background and motivation for this Special Issue are described and followed by a brief summary of the 15 articles of this Special Issue. The conclusions of this Editorial summarise the approaches taken and address future developments expected in process-oriented studies and for the development of applications in complex terrain.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2129","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49614420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhancing power distribution network operational resilience to extreme wind events","authors":"Daniel L. Donaldson,&nbsp;Emma J.S. Ferranti,&nbsp;Andrew D. Quinn,&nbsp;Dilan Jayaweera,&nbsp;Thomas Peasley,&nbsp;Mark Mercer","doi":"10.1002/met.2127","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2127","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Extreme weather events can cause significant damage to power distribution network infrastructure, often resulting in power outages. Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) are faced with the challenging task of responding to these outages in real time while maintaining a resilient grid. Our paper presents an innovative approach to alert operators about the potential risk associated with upcoming extreme weather through a normalized fragility curve. The uniqueness of the curve is the ability to capture regional differences across a DNO's territory while presenting operators with a means of setting unified risk thresholds. This can support a proactive response and allow the staging of necessary resources to minimize the threat posed by such events. Our approach captures the changes in failure probability associated with differing wind regimes and demonstrates the benefit of sub-regional meteorological information. The proposed approach is demonstrated for wind events using 20 years of historical fault records from a DNO in the United Kingdom (UK). While its efficacy is demonstrated for windstorms in the UK, the approach could be applied globally to develop normalized fragility curves for other types of seasonal extreme weather events such as snowstorms, hurricanes, or linked hazards such as wildfires. The approach can also facilitate an understanding of how infrastructure may operate under future climate conditions, supporting proactive adaptation.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2127","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43357027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of COVID-19 lockdown measures on nitrogen dioxide and black carbon concentrations close to a major Italian motorway","authors":"Elena Bertazza,&nbsp;Andrea Bisignano,&nbsp;Marco Falocchi,&nbsp;Lorenzo Giovannini","doi":"10.1002/met.2123","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2123","url":null,"abstract":"<p>During the first half of 2020, the Italian government imposed several restrictions to limit the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic: at the beginning of March, a heavy lockdown regime was introduced leading to a drastic reduction of traffic and, consequently, traffic-related emissions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of these restrictions on pollutant concentrations close to a stretch of the Italian A22 motorway lying in the Alpine Adige valley. In particular, the analysis focuses on measured concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and black carbon (BC). Results show that, close to the motorway, NO₂ concentrations dropped by around 45% during the lockdown period with respect to the same time period of the previous 3 years. The equivalent analysis for BC shows that the component related to biomass burning, mostly due to domestic heating, was not particularly affected by the restrictions, while the BC component related to fossil fuels, directly connected to traffic, plummeted by almost 60% with respect to the previous years. Since atmospheric concentrations of pollutants depend both on emissions and meteorological conditions, which can mask the variations in the emission regime, a random forest algorithm is also applied to the measured concentrations, in order to better evaluate the effects of the restrictions on emissions. This procedure allows for obtaining business-as-usual and meteorologically normalized time series of both NO₂ and BC concentrations. The results derived from the random forest algorithm clearly confirm the drop in NO₂ emissions at the beginning of the lockdown period, followed by a slow and partial recovery in the following months. They also confirm that, during the lockdown, emissions of the BC component due to biomass burning were not significantly affected, while those of the BC component related to fossil fuels underwent an abrupt drop.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2123","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42164049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Upper tropospheric cloud-radiation interaction induced by monsoon surge over the South China Sea","authors":"Shunya Koseki,&nbsp;Ricardo Fonseca,&nbsp;Tieh-Yong Koh,&nbsp;Chee-Kiat Teo","doi":"10.1002/met.2125","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2125","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We have investigated cloud formation over the South China Sea in the upper troposphere and its impacts on the radiation budget of the troposphere and ocean surface under monsoon surges using satellite and reanalysis products and an atmospheric numerical model. During strong surges (SS), the upper tropospheric (UT) cloud formation in central South China Sea shows a clear diurnal cycle, peaking around 12–14 local solar time when the incoming solar radiation is the strongest. The enhanced UT clouds attenuate the incoming solar radiation in the upper troposphere reducing the net downward shortwave radiation flux at the surface by approximately 28% in SS compared with no surge case. In contrast the downward longwave radiation flux is enhanced mainly from the middle to upper troposphere in SS. The cooling because of the diminished incoming shortwave radiation overwhelms the warming due to the longwave radiation at the ocean surface. This cloud radiative forcing is observed partly over the cold tongue in sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea. Numerical simulations with a 1-dimensional slab ocean model suggests that the monsoon-induced UT cloud radiative forcing contributes partially to maintain and reinforce the SST cold tongue with a tendency of about 0.08 K in 6 days or about 1/6 of one standard deviation of the Cold Tongue Index in December. The latent heat flux due to the monsoon surge is still the most significant factor maintaining the cold tongue.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2125","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41397915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}