Meteorological Applications最新文献

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Revisiting reference evapotranspiration calculation under regional advection and its effect on single and dual crop coefficients: An empirical approach for quinoa crop 重新审视区域平流条件下的参考蒸散量计算及其对单作和双作系数的影响:藜麦作物的经验方法
IF 2.7 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI: 10.1002/met.2189
Mohammad Hadi Razmavaran, Ali Reza Sepaskhah, Seyed Hamid Ahmadi
{"title":"Revisiting reference evapotranspiration calculation under regional advection and its effect on single and dual crop coefficients: An empirical approach for quinoa crop","authors":"Mohammad Hadi Razmavaran,&nbsp;Ali Reza Sepaskhah,&nbsp;Seyed Hamid Ahmadi","doi":"10.1002/met.2189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2189","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Advection is a prevailing meteorological phenomenon in the arid and semi-arid environments that directly affects the crop and soil hydrology. It could have a great impact on the rate of standard crop evapotranspiration (ET<sub>c</sub>) in the irrigated areas. Therefore, it is required to take it into consideration while computing crop water requirement through the physically based meteorological procedures. The objectives of this study are (1) simple modification of the Penman–Monteith (PM) equation in calculation of the grass reference evapotranspiration (ET<sub>o</sub>) to implement the local advection, (2) comparing the single (K<sub>c</sub>) and dual crop coefficient (K<sub>cb</sub>) of two quinoa cultivars (Titicaca, and Q5) with and without advection correction and (3) presenting a simple model to calculate the advection factor using the maximum air temperature and mean relative humidity for the future crop growth modelling studies. Both Q5 and Titicaca showed unexpectedly very high ET<sub>c</sub> and potential transpiration (T<sub>p</sub>) as 1568 mm and 1003 mm, and 1156 mm and 829 mm, respectively, due to occurrence of regional advection, whereas very high unrealistic K<sub>c</sub> and K<sub>cb</sub> values for Q5 revealed the impact of strong local advection and external energy. Therefore, we modified ET<sub>o</sub> to implement the advection effect through introducing the advection factor, ET<sub>c</sub>/R<sub>n</sub> (R<sub>n</sub> is the net radiation), as a function of maximum air temperature and mean relative air humidity during the growing season [ET<sub>c</sub>/R<sub>n</sub> = exp (0.025T<sub>max</sub> – 0.015RH<sub>avg</sub>)] which resulted in higher ET<sub>o</sub> values, and consequently lower and more realistic K<sub>c</sub> and K<sub>cb</sub>. As a result, modified maximum K<sub>c</sub> values of 1.14 and 1.55 and the modified maximum K<sub>cb</sub> of 0.94 and 1.0 were obtained for Titicaca and Q5 cultivars, respectively. This procedure leads to a more accurate site-specific K<sub>c</sub> estimation and indirectly reliable ET<sub>c</sub> estimation as a function of advection factor and its multiplication by the non-modified ET<sub>o</sub>. Furthermore, for direct estimation of ET<sub>c</sub> through the PM equation, the coefficients of aerodynamic and canopy resistance components of PM equation were modified for estimation of ET<sub>c</sub> by the non-modified R<sub>n</sub>, which resulted in accurate estimation of ET<sub>c</sub>.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2189","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140135404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climatic interactions between cold surges in the South China Sea and North Pacific extratropical cyclones 南海寒潮与北太平洋外热带气旋之间的气候相互作用
IF 2.7 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1002/met.2182
Lan Xia, Jialin Zhang, Yao Hu
{"title":"Climatic interactions between cold surges in the South China Sea and North Pacific extratropical cyclones","authors":"Lan Xia,&nbsp;Jialin Zhang,&nbsp;Yao Hu","doi":"10.1002/met.2182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2182","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cold surge events in the South China Sea (over 110–117.5° E longitude at 15° N latitude) from 1979 to 2019 are divided into four types depending on their correlation with North Pacific extratropical cyclones (ECs). Climatologic relationships between the two phenomena reveal that 92% (39%) of all cold surges are accompanied by ECs (explosive extratropical cyclones, abbreviated as EC-E), while 31% of ECs are accompanied by cold surges. The occurrence and development of ECs favour eruptions of cold air from higher latitudes, which in turn produce conditions conducive to cold surges. In the North Pacific, ECs travel in a northeastward direction, ultimately contributing to the Aleutian low. Meanwhile, the westerly jet is observed to strengthen following cold surge events. Both actions drive further EC activity, which in turn facilitates subsequent cold surges. Therefore, when ECs occur before and after cold surges, the cold surge event itself tends to be relatively strong and long lived. The transmission of energy by ECs is a primary link between the high and middle latitudes and contributes to the impact of cold surges on low latitudes. This study also explores the respective influences of the Siberia High and Aleutian Low on cold surges. The majority of cold surges that do not involve ECs occur in the context of the weaker Siberia High and Aleutian Low. Cold surges accompanied with ECs can be even stronger and longer lasting when the Siberia High and Aleutian Low strengthen.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2182","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140114341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
High performance computing to support land, climate, and user-oriented services: The HIGHLANDER Data Portal 高性能计算支持土地、气候和面向用户的服务:HIGHLANDER 数据门户网站
IF 2.7 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1002/met.2166
Michele Bottazzi, Lucía Rodríguez-Muñoz, Beatrice Chiavarini, Cinzia Caroli, Giuseppe Trotta, Chiara Dellacasa, Gian Franco Marras, Margherita Montanari, Monia Santini, Marco Mancini, Alessandro D'Anca, Paola Mercogliano, Mario Raffa, Giulia Villani, Fausto Tomei, Nicola Loglisci, Estíbaliz Gascón, Timothy Hewson, Giovanni Chillemi, Riccardo Valentini, Damiano Gianelle, Elena Massarenti, Martina Forconi, Lucia Mazzoni, Gabriella Scipione
{"title":"High performance computing to support land, climate, and user-oriented services: The HIGHLANDER Data Portal","authors":"Michele Bottazzi,&nbsp;Lucía Rodríguez-Muñoz,&nbsp;Beatrice Chiavarini,&nbsp;Cinzia Caroli,&nbsp;Giuseppe Trotta,&nbsp;Chiara Dellacasa,&nbsp;Gian Franco Marras,&nbsp;Margherita Montanari,&nbsp;Monia Santini,&nbsp;Marco Mancini,&nbsp;Alessandro D'Anca,&nbsp;Paola Mercogliano,&nbsp;Mario Raffa,&nbsp;Giulia Villani,&nbsp;Fausto Tomei,&nbsp;Nicola Loglisci,&nbsp;Estíbaliz Gascón,&nbsp;Timothy Hewson,&nbsp;Giovanni Chillemi,&nbsp;Riccardo Valentini,&nbsp;Damiano Gianelle,&nbsp;Elena Massarenti,&nbsp;Martina Forconi,&nbsp;Lucia Mazzoni,&nbsp;Gabriella Scipione","doi":"10.1002/met.2166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2166","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Italian territory is located at the heart of one of the global hot spots of climate change, where the implementation of climate-smart land management practices is imperative to guarantee the present and future maintenance of ecosystem functions as well as the sustainability of human socioeconomic activities. The project HIGHLANDER (HIGH performance computing to support smart LAND sERvices) led by Cineca aims at building a comprehensive and multi-sector framework for land-management decision-making in Italy. The project relies on high quality information on different components of the landscape, with a focus on climate-driven processes, and state-of-the-art computing infrastructures. The HIGHLANDER Data Portal maximizes the impact of HIGHLANDER results by providing access to data products and services. In this article, we describe the architectural features of the platform, as well as the available HIGHLANDER datasets and downstream applications.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2166","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140114215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fog climatology at Shanghai Pudong International Airport 上海浦东国际机场的雾气候特征
IF 2.7 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1002/met.2191
Ran Hao, Rui Lyu, Xue Hao, Jun Yi, Weijie Wang, Tiantao Cheng, Bo Xu
{"title":"Fog climatology at Shanghai Pudong International Airport","authors":"Ran Hao,&nbsp;Rui Lyu,&nbsp;Xue Hao,&nbsp;Jun Yi,&nbsp;Weijie Wang,&nbsp;Tiantao Cheng,&nbsp;Bo Xu","doi":"10.1002/met.2191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2191","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using 22-year ground observations on meteorological variables, we conducted a statistical analysis to reveal fog characteristics at Shanghai Pudong International Airport (SPIA). Fog events were classified by fog types using an objective method. Two types of advection fogs are dominant in fog events at SPIA, followed by radiation fogs. Different fogs have evident annual and monthly variations in frequency. Advection fog mostly appear from February to April, while radiation fog is mainly between November and February. Six synoptic patterns associated with fogs were determine by a self-organizing maps cluster method, two of which, namely ‘west of marine high pressure’ and ‘inverted trough’, are most favourable for the formation of advection fogs, whereas ‘bottom of weak cold high-pressure’ is favourable for radiation fogs. The frequency of advection fog occurrence exhibits temporal fluctuations with distinct peaks occurring 2–3 h after sunset, around midnight, and 1–2 h before sunrise, while almost all radiation fog occur in the second half of the night, and favourable conditions for fog onset become more effective with the length of the night. Radiation fog exhibits a longer duration than advection fog and tends to result in lower visibility. The prevalent wind direction for the formation of advection fog is generally from the east to the southeast, whereas radiation fog is typically associated with westerly winds. The temperature and air pressure during the formation of both advection and radiation fogs follow a normal distribution in most seasons. More fog characteristics were categorized by fog types and seasons.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2191","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140114343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Development of an evaluation indicator for highway climate change adaptation projects based on analytical hierarchy process in South Korea 基于层次分析法制定韩国高速公路气候变化适应项目的评估指标
IF 2.7 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-03-08 DOI: 10.1002/met.2180
Moon-Soo Song, Sang-Guk Yum, Hong-Sic Yun, Sang-Hoon Park, Sang-Won Bae, Jae-Joon Lee
{"title":"Development of an evaluation indicator for highway climate change adaptation projects based on analytical hierarchy process in South Korea","authors":"Moon-Soo Song,&nbsp;Sang-Guk Yum,&nbsp;Hong-Sic Yun,&nbsp;Sang-Hoon Park,&nbsp;Sang-Won Bae,&nbsp;Jae-Joon Lee","doi":"10.1002/met.2180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2180","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Owing to climate change, abnormal climate phenomena occur frequently, damaging aging highway facilities. Therefore, it is necessary to develop adaptation projects for highway systems. Adaptation projects focus on mitigating the impact of climate change on highway facilities and enabling safe use. The present study aims to develop quantified evaluation indicators that are necessary for planning and selecting appropriate climate change adaptation projects. By analysing previous studies, the most important factors to be considered in the evaluation process of climate change adaptation projects were defined, and 20 preliminary evaluation indicators were divided into three layers. A feasibility study for each class was performed on the preliminary evaluation indicators by an expert panel; 16 evaluation indicators were selected through a feasibility study, and the weight of each indicator was calculated using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method. The priority of the evaluation indicators was service improvement through adaptation projects (weight 8.76), cost reduction and job creation (weight 8.46), and climate change impact reduction and vulnerability reduction (weight 8.31). These quantified evaluation indicators can help organizations that manage highways respond to climate change and establish adaptation projects.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2180","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140063780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Literature survey of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions in the southern hemisphere 南半球亚季节到季节预测文献调查
IF 2.7 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1002/met.2170
Steven Phakula, Willem A. Landman, Christien J. Engelbrecht
{"title":"Literature survey of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions in the southern hemisphere","authors":"Steven Phakula,&nbsp;Willem A. Landman,&nbsp;Christien J. Engelbrecht","doi":"10.1002/met.2170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2170","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction has gained momentum in the recent past as a need for predictions between the weather forecasting timescale and seasonal timescale exists. The availability of S2S databases makes prediction and predictability studies possible over all the regions of the globe. Most S2S studies are, however, relevant to the northern hemisphere. In this review, the S2S literature relevant to the southern hemisphere (SH) are presented. Predictive skill, sources of predictability, and the application of S2S predictions are discussed. Indications from the subseasonal predictability studies for the SH regions suggest that predictive skill is limited to 2 weeks in general, particularly for temperature and rainfall, which are the variables most frequently investigated. However, temperature has enhanced skill compared to rainfall. More S2S prediction studies that include the quantification of the sources of predictability and the identification of windows of opportunity need to be conducted for the SH, particularly for the southern African region. The African continent is vulnerable to weather- and climate-related disasters, and S2S forecasts can assist in alleviating the risk of such disasters.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2170","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139937347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
LD-Net: A novel one-stage knowledge distillation algorithm for lightning detection network LD-Net:雷电检测网络的新型单级知识提炼算法
IF 2.7 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1002/met.2171
Junjie Fu, Yingxiang Li, Jiawei Liu, Yulin Ji, Jiandan Zhong
{"title":"LD-Net: A novel one-stage knowledge distillation algorithm for lightning detection network","authors":"Junjie Fu,&nbsp;Yingxiang Li,&nbsp;Jiawei Liu,&nbsp;Yulin Ji,&nbsp;Jiandan Zhong","doi":"10.1002/met.2171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2171","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Lightning often causes death, injury, and damage to various facilities and equipment. Accurately detecting the spatial location of lightning occurrence by predicting thunderstorms and lightning is of great significance. Traditional lightning detection systems detect lightning by measuring the sound, light, and electromagnetic field information radiated by lightning. These methods typically have two problems. First, the detection process of lightning signals is susceptible to electromagnetic interference. Second, the equipment cost is high and is not friendly to some lightning detection tasks only targeted at specific scenarios. In order to detect lightning more conveniently, we propose a lightning detection model based on deep learning networks. With the increase in the use of cameras in modern society, designing lightning object detection networks based on deep learning is possible. However, two problems have been found in existing practice: (1) When strong lightning meteorological phenomena occur, the lightning features in the image are covered by bright electric lights, and convolutional neural networks cannot distinguish between strong lightning scenes and strong ultraviolet scenes. (2) The performance of convolutional neural networks is often related to the model's size. The larger the model, the stronger the performance of the network. However, in practical application scenarios, computing resources are insufficient to use sufficiently large networks. In this paper, we propose a simple and effective lightning object detection network (LD-Net) and use a foreground-background segmentation algorithm to locate frames containing lightning in the video. After using the knowledge distillation-based model compression method, the mAP of the lightning object detection network with a backbone net of resnet with 18-layer (LD-Net-18) can reach 82.4%. We hope that the proposed LD-Net can serve as a simple and powerful alternative to traditional lightning detection methods, enhancing efficiency in lightning detection tasks.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2171","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139937277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Probabilistic skill of statistically downscaled ECMWF S2S forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures for weeks 1–4 over South Africa 统计降尺度 ECMWF S2S 预测南非上空第 1-4 周最高和最低气温的概率技能
IF 2.7 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-02-21 DOI: 10.1002/met.2176
Steven Phakula, Willem A. Landman, Christien J. Engelbrecht
{"title":"Probabilistic skill of statistically downscaled ECMWF S2S forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures for weeks 1–4 over South Africa","authors":"Steven Phakula,&nbsp;Willem A. Landman,&nbsp;Christien J. Engelbrecht","doi":"10.1002/met.2176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2176","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The probabilistic forecast skill level of statistically downscaled European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts is determined in predicting maximum and minimum temperatures for weeks 1–4 lead times during 20-year December–January–February (DJF) seasons from 2001 to 2020 over South Africa. Skilful S2S forecasts are vital in assisting decision-makers in the development of contingency planning for any eventualities that may arise because of weather and climate phenomena. Extreme high- and low-temperature events over a prolonged period can lead to hyperthermia and hypothermia, respectively, and can lead to loss of life. The results from the relative operating characteristic (ROC) and reliability diagrams indicate that the ECMWF S2S model has skill in predicting maximum temperature up to week 3 ahead, particularly over the central and eastern parts of South Africa. The ROC scores indicate that the model has skill in predicting minimum temperature up to week 4 ahead for the above-normal category, particularly over the central and eastern parts of South Africa. Reliability diagrams indicate that the model has a tendency of overestimating the below-normal category when predicting both maximum and minimum temperatures for weeks 1–4 lead times over South Africa. Furthermore, canonical correlation analysis (CCA) pattern analysis suggests that when there are anomalously positive and negative predicted 850-hPa geopotential heights located over South Africa, there are anomalously hot and cold conditions during the DJF seasons over most parts of South Africa, respectively. These results suggests that statistical downscaling of model forecasts can improve forecast skill. Moreover, the results suggest that there is potential for S2S predictions in South Africa, and as such, S2S prediction system for maximum and minimum temperatures can be developed.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2176","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139915692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A seamless blended multi-model ensemble approach to probabilistic medium-range weather pattern forecasts over the UK 英国中期天气模式概率预报的无缝混合多模式集合方法
IF 2.7 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-02-19 DOI: 10.1002/met.2179
Robert Neal, Joanne Robbins, Ric Crocker, Dave Cox, Keith Fenwick, Jonathan Millard, Jason Kelly
{"title":"A seamless blended multi-model ensemble approach to probabilistic medium-range weather pattern forecasts over the UK","authors":"Robert Neal,&nbsp;Joanne Robbins,&nbsp;Ric Crocker,&nbsp;Dave Cox,&nbsp;Keith Fenwick,&nbsp;Jonathan Millard,&nbsp;Jason Kelly","doi":"10.1002/met.2179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2179","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper describes a new seamless blended multi-model ensemble configuration of an existing probabilistic medium- to extended-range weather pattern forecasting tool (called Decider) run operationally at the Met Office. In its initial configuration, the tool calculated and presented probabilistic weather pattern forecast information for five individual ensemble forecasting systems, which varied in terms of their number of ensemble members, horizontal resolution, update frequencies and forecast lead time. This resulted in multiple forecasts for the same validity time which varied in terms of forecast skill depending on the lead time in question. This presented challenges for end-users (e.g., operational meteorologists) in terms of knowing which forecast output is best to use and at which lead time, as well as knowing what to do in situations where forecasts varied between ensembles. To get around these challenges, a new seamless blended multi-model ensemble configuration has been implemented operationally, comprising of output from five separate ensembles, and provides a single best forecast from day one out to day 45. Objective verification for a set of eight weather pattern groups covering forecasts initialized over a 6-year period (2017–2022) shows that the seamless blended multi-model ensemble forecasts are at least as good as, if not better than the best performing individual model.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2179","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139901689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Probabilistic seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation using complex systems modelling and comparison with dynamical models 利用复杂系统建模对北大西洋大气环流进行概率季节预报并与动力学模型进行比较
IF 2.7 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1002/met.2178
Yiming Sun, Ian Simpson, Hua-Liang Wei, Edward Hanna
{"title":"Probabilistic seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation using complex systems modelling and comparison with dynamical models","authors":"Yiming Sun,&nbsp;Ian Simpson,&nbsp;Hua-Liang Wei,&nbsp;Edward Hanna","doi":"10.1002/met.2178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2178","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Dynamical seasonal forecast models are improving with time but tend to underestimate the amplitude of atmospheric circulation variability and to have lower skill in predicting summer variability than in winter. Here, we construct Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average models with eXogenous inputs (NARMAX) to develop the analysis of drivers of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and jet-stream variability, focusing on the East Atlantic (EA) and Scandinavian (SCA) patterns as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. New time series of these indices are developed from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Geopotential height data from the ERA5 reanalysis are used to generate the EOFs. Sets of predictors with known associations with these drivers are developed and used to formulate a sliding-window NARMAX model. This model demonstrates a high degree of predictive accuracy, as indicated by its average correlation coefficients over the testing period (2006–2021): 0.78 for NAO, 0.83 for EA and 0.68 for SCA. In comparison, the SEAS5 and GloSea5 dynamical forecast models exhibit lower correlations with observed circulation changes: for NAO, the correlation coefficients are 0.51 for SEAS5 and 0.34 for GloSea5, for EA they are 0.15 and 0.09, respectively, and for SCA, they are 0.28 and 0.24, respectively. Comparison of NARMAX predictions with forecasts and hindcasts from the SEAS5 and GloSea5 models highlights areas where NARMAX can be used to help improve seasonal forecast skill and inform the development of dynamical models, especially in the case of summer.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2178","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139744917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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