Meteorological Applications最新文献_第9页

C3S Energy: A climate service for the provision of power supply and demand indicators for Europe based on the ERA5 reanalysis and ENTSO-E data C3S能源：基于ERA5再分析和ENTSO-E数据为欧洲提供电力供需指标的气候服务

IF 2.7 4区地球科学

Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.1002/met.2145

Laurent Dubus, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Alberto Troccoli, Matteo De Felice, Yohann Moreau, Linh Ho-Tran, Clare Goodess, Rodrigo Amaro e Silva, Luke Sanger

{"title":"C3S Energy: A climate service for the provision of power supply and demand indicators for Europe based on the ERA5 reanalysis and ENTSO-E data","authors":"Laurent Dubus, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Alberto Troccoli, Matteo De Felice, Yohann Moreau, Linh Ho-Tran, Clare Goodess, Rodrigo Amaro e Silva, Luke Sanger","doi":"10.1002/met.2145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2145","url":null,"abstract":"The EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has produced an operational climate service, called C3S Energy, designed to enable the energy industry and policymakers to assess the impacts of climate variability and climate change on the energy sector in Europe. The C3S Energy service covers different time horizons, for the past 40 years and the future. It provides time series of electricity demand and supply from wind, solar photovoltaic and hydropower, and can be used for recent trends analysis, seasonal outlooks or the assessment of climate change impacts on energy mixes in the long term. This article introduces this service and the resulting dataset, with a focus on the design and validation of the energy conversion models, based on ENTSO-E energy data and the ERA5 climate reanalysis. Flexibility and coherence across all countries have been preferred upon models' accuracy. However, the comparison with ENTSO-E data shows that the models provide plausible energy indicators and, in particular, allow comparing climate variability effects on power demand and generation in a harmonized manner all over Europe.","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2145","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50149799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Verification of multiresolution model forecasts of heavy rainfall events from 23 to 26 August 2017 over Nigeria 2017年8月23日至26日尼日利亚强降雨事件多分辨率模式预报的验证

IF 2.7 4区地球科学

Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2023-08-29 DOI: 10.1002/met.2135

Imoleayo E. Gbode, Vincent O. Ajayi, Elijah A. Adefisan, Emmanuel C. Okogbue, Carlo Cafaro, Eniola A. Olaniyan, Stephen B. Ogungbenro, Ayodeji Oluleye, Kamoru A. Lawal, Jerome A. Omotosho, Thorwald Stein

{"title":"Verification of multiresolution model forecasts of heavy rainfall events from 23 to 26 August 2017 over Nigeria","authors":"Imoleayo E. Gbode, Vincent O. Ajayi, Elijah A. Adefisan, Emmanuel C. Okogbue, Carlo Cafaro, Eniola A. Olaniyan, Stephen B. Ogungbenro, Ayodeji Oluleye, Kamoru A. Lawal, Jerome A. Omotosho, Thorwald Stein","doi":"10.1002/met.2135","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2135","url":null,"abstract":"The study uses numerical weather prediction models to predict the occurrence of heavy convective rainfall associated with the passage of the African Easterly Wave (AEW) during the period 23–26 August 2017 over Nigeria. Fraction skill score (FSS) and method for object-based diagnostic evaluation (MODE) verification techniques were applied to verify how well the models predict the high-impact event and to demonstrate how these tools can support operational forecasting. Ensemble model forecasts at a convective scale from UK Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) and a one-way nested weather research and forecasting (WRF) model were compared with the integrated multisatellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement (IMERG GPM). The purpose is to examine skills of improved model resolution and ensemble in reproducing rainfall forecasts on useful scales and how the skill varies with spatial scale. WRF 2 and 6 km model forecasts show comparable skill at smaller grid scales. The skill of MetUM improves dramatically when the verification statistics are applied to the ensemble mean of the binary fields of the individual member forecast. The object-based analysis reveals a similar structure as observed, although displaced eastwards. Most improvement occurred for heavier rainfall events associated with the passage of the AEW. WRF 6 km compares reasonably well with WRF 2 km in terms of shape and structure of rainfall underscoring the ability of the model to reasonably represent convection at 6 km horizontal resolution. The ensemble members in MetUM explicitly reproduce convection at 4 km resolution but are displaced at about 166 km behind observed rainfall.","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2135","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45868583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Optimizing convection-permitting ensemble via selection of the coarse ensemble driving members 通过选择粗系综驱动构件优化允许系综的对流

IF 2.7 4区地球科学

Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI: 10.1002/met.2137

Pavel Khain, Alon Shtivelman, Yoav Levi, Anat Baharad, Eyal Amitai, Yizhak Carmona, Elyakom Vadislavsky, Amit Savir, Nir Stav

{"title":"Optimizing convection-permitting ensemble via selection of the coarse ensemble driving members","authors":"Pavel Khain, Alon Shtivelman, Yoav Levi, Anat Baharad, Eyal Amitai, Yizhak Carmona, Elyakom Vadislavsky, Amit Savir, Nir Stav","doi":"10.1002/met.2137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2137","url":null,"abstract":"Nowadays, several global ensembles (GEs) which consist of several tens of members are being run operationally. In order to locally improve the probabilistic forecasts, various forecasting centers and research institutes utilize the GEs as initial and boundary conditions to drive regional convection permitting ensembles (RCPEs). RCPEs demand significant computer resources and often a limited number of ensemble members is affordable, which is smaller than the size of the driving GE. Since each RCPE member obtains the initial and boundary conditions from a specific GE member, there are many options to select the GE members. The study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) GE consisting of 50 members, to drive 20 members of COSMO model RCPE over the Eastern Mediterranean. We compare various approaches for automatic selection of the GE members and propose several optimal methods, including a random selection, which consistently lead to a better performance of the driven RCPE. The comparison includes verification of near surface variables and precipitation using various verification metrics. The results are validated using several methods of model physics perturbation. Besides the selection of the optimal ensemble configurations, we show that at high precipitation intensities spatial up-scaling is recommended in order to obtain useful probabilistic forecasts.","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2137","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50155166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Drought monitoring performance of global precipitation products in three wet seasons in Ethiopia: Part I—Quasi-objective examination 埃塞俄比亚三个雨季全球降水产品的干旱监测性能:第一部分-准客观检验

IF 2.7 4区地球科学

Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2023-08-14 DOI: 10.1002/met.2143

Mekonnen Adnew Degefu, Woldeamlak Bewket

{"title":"Drought monitoring performance of global precipitation products in three wet seasons in Ethiopia: Part I—Quasi-objective examination","authors":"Mekonnen Adnew Degefu, Woldeamlak Bewket","doi":"10.1002/met.2143","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2143","url":null,"abstract":"The need for representative and accurate climate data such as precipitation useful for drought monitoring has been rapidly increasing among policymakers and practitioners to tackle climate-change-induced drought events. Hence, the objective of this article is to evaluate the drought monitoring performance of global precipitation products for the three wet seasons and rainfall regions in Ethiopia. Drought indices were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 3-month timescale for Belg (March–May) and Autumn (September–November) seasons and at 4-month timescale for the Kiremt (June–September) seasons. Data products were evaluated for their accuracy in representing drought magnitude, geographical coverage and frequency using quasi-objective (visual inspection), and frequency and correlation analysis methods. The performance of gridded precipitation products was compared against the SPI value computed for 126 reference stations and the Ethiopian satellite-gauge merged precipitation data. Precipitation products showed different levels of performance in representing the magnitude, frequency and geographical coverage of drought events for the three wet seasons and rainfall regions. None of the data products outperformed in representing the occurrence of drought for all three wet seasons and the corresponding three rainfall regions. However, the Ethiopian merged precipitation, Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) and Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) precipitation products are relatively better than others. The study results generally indicate that no single data outperform the other precipitation products in representing the complex spatiotemporal characteristics of drought events in a mountainous region like Ethiopia.","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2143","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47420808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Improving the blend of multiple weather forecast sources by Reliability Calibration 通过可靠性校准改进多个天气预报源的混合

IF 2.7 4区地球科学

Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.1002/met.2142

Fiona M. Rust, Gavin R. Evans, Benjamin A. Ayliffe

{"title":"Improving the blend of multiple weather forecast sources by Reliability Calibration","authors":"Fiona M. Rust, Gavin R. Evans, Benjamin A. Ayliffe","doi":"10.1002/met.2142","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2142","url":null,"abstract":"Creating a forecast that is seamless across time yet is optimal at each forecast validity time is often achieved by blending forecasts from multiple Numerical Weather Prediction models (or using other forecast sources, such as an extrapolation nowcast). With the increasing usage of convection-permitting ensemble models at shorter lead times, the blending of these forecasts with longer-range ensemble models with parameterized convection can lead to a clear transition from one forecast source to another. This is particularly noticeable when visualizing the evolution of the gridded forecast. Calibrating the forecast sources with a common truth prior to blending provides a method of improving forecast skill whilst also unifying the characteristics of the forecasts to create a smoother blend throughout the evolution of the forecast. In this work, a non-parametric method for calibrating the reliability of the forecast without degrading the forecast resolution is assessed for its usability for gridded precipitation rate and total cloud amount forecasts. Reliability is markedly improved resulting in a similar skill between forecast sources during the blending period. Further refinements to the technique removed artefacts in the gridded forecasts. Caveats, including a reduction in sharpness following calibration, are also presented.","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2142","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46526316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rainstorm and high-temperature disaster risk assessment of territorial space in Beijing, China 中国北京地区的暴雨和高温灾害风险评估

IF 2.7 4区地球科学

Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2023-07-21 DOI: 10.1002/met.2140

Chen Cheng, Xiaoyi Fang, Mingcai Li, Yuanhui Yang, Ya Gao, Shuo Zhang, Ying Yu, Yonghong Liu, Wupeng Du

{"title":"Rainstorm and high-temperature disaster risk assessment of territorial space in Beijing, China","authors":"Chen Cheng, Xiaoyi Fang, Mingcai Li, Yuanhui Yang, Ya Gao, Shuo Zhang, Ying Yu, Yonghong Liu, Wupeng Du","doi":"10.1002/met.2140","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2140","url":null,"abstract":"It is important for territorial spatial planning to master meteorological disaster risk under the conditions of climate change and then carry out risk adaptation planning according to local conditions. Taking Beijing, a large city in China, as an example, a meteorological disaster risk assessment model was established based on the framework of hazard factors, disaster-bearing body exposure, and vulnerability of underlying surface. Combined with 11 years of observation data from 293 high-density weather stations, the rainstorm and high-temperature risks of urban, agriculture, and ecological spaces were studied. The results show that (1) rainstorms and high-temperature are mainly distributed in the built-up areas of plain towns, which are the climate risk factors that need to be considered. (2) The central city of Beijing is at a high risk of rainstorms and high temperature, indicating that the underlying surface and disaster-bearing body are highly vulnerable to meteorological disasters. (3) In suburbs with agricultural land, there is a certain rainstorm risk in Fangshan and Daxing districts, and a risk of high temperatures in the southern part of Tongzhou and Daxing. (4) The risk of high temperatures in the ecological space (eco-zone) is relatively low, but the rainstorm risk is relatively high in Pinggu and Miyun. (5) The strategies of coping with rainstorm and high-temperature disaster risk in Beijing's territorial space planning were discussed.","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2140","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49507164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Meteorological conditions during periods of low wind speed and insolation in Germany: The role of weather regimes 德国低风速和日照期间的气象条件：天气状况的作用

IF 2.7 4区地球科学

Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2023-07-21 DOI: 10.1002/met.2141

Fabian Mockert, Christian M. Grams, Tom Brown, Fabian Neumann

{"title":"Meteorological conditions during periods of low wind speed and insolation in Germany: The role of weather regimes","authors":"Fabian Mockert, Christian M. Grams, Tom Brown, Fabian Neumann","doi":"10.1002/met.2141","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2141","url":null,"abstract":"Renewable power generation from wind and solar energy is strongly dependent on the weather. To plan future sustainable energy systems that are robust to weather variability, a better understanding of why and when periods of low wind and solar power output occur is valuable. We call such periods of low wind speed and insolation “Dunkelflauten”, the German word for “dark wind lulls”. In this article, we analyse the meteorological conditions during Dunkelflauten in Germany by applying the concept of weather regimes. Weather regimes are quasi-stationary, recurrent and persistent large-scale circulation patterns that explain multi-day atmospheric variability (5–15 days). We use a regime definition that allows us to distinguish four different types of blocked regimes, characterized by high-pressure situations in the North Atlantic-European region. We find that Dunkelflauten in Germany occur mainly in winter when the solar power output is low due to the seasonal cycle of solar irradiance and wind power output drops for several consecutive days. A high-pressure system over Germany, associated with the European Blocking regime, is responsible for most of the Dunkelflauten. Dunkelflauten during the Greenland Blocking regime are associated with colder temperatures than usual, causing higher electricity demand, and would present a particular challenge as space heating becomes electrified in the future. Furthermore, we show that Dunkelflauten occur predominantly when a weather regime is well established and persists longer than usual. Our study provides novel insight into the occurrence and meteorological characteristics of Dunkelflauten, which is essential for planning resilient energy systems and supporting grid operators to prepare for potential shortages in supply.","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2141","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49285559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An improved GNSS remote sensing technique for 3D distribution of tropospheric water vapor 对流层水汽三维分布的改进GNSS遥感技术

IF 2.7 4区地球科学

Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2023-07-18 DOI: 10.1002/met.2136

Ankang Long, Shirong Ye, Pengfei Xia

{"title":"An improved GNSS remote sensing technique for 3D distribution of tropospheric water vapor","authors":"Ankang Long, Shirong Ye, Pengfei Xia","doi":"10.1002/met.2136","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2136","url":null,"abstract":"Water vapor plays an extremely important role in the monitoring and prediction of weather, and GNSS tomography can obtain 3D spatiotemporal change information and reliable water vapor profiles. In this paper, an improved global navigation satellite system (GNSS) tropospheric tomography technique using an ERA5 (the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis) product is developed. First, the ERA5 product was adopted to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of water vapor, and a water vapor density threshold defining the top of the tomography was determined; then, the height of the grid top (GT) of different seasons was obtained through linear fitting; finally, the water vapor value between GT and tropopause is constrained using the data of the ERA5 product as the initial value. The new method for using the ERA5 product to determine the height of the GT of the tomographic grid reduces the height of the top layer of the grid and increases the number of effective GNSS rays. Data from nine CORS stations in Hong Kong in 2019 were selected for experiments. The results showed that the new algorithm increased the number of effective satellite signals by 14%. In addition, the ERA5 data, the radiosonde data, and the COSMIC-2 data were used as reference values. The accuracy of the water vapor density obtained by the algorithm was improved by 25%, 17% and 9%, respectively.","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2136","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42389265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Novel evaluation of sub-seasonal precipitation ensemble forecasts for identifying high-impact weather events associated with the Indian monsoon 用于识别与印度季风相关的高影响天气事件的亚季节降水集合预报的新评估

IF 2.7 4区地球科学

Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2023-07-13 DOI: 10.1002/met.2139

Seshagiri Rao Kolusu, Marion Mittermaier, Joanne Robbins, Raghavendra Ashrit, Ashis K. Mitra

{"title":"Novel evaluation of sub-seasonal precipitation ensemble forecasts for identifying high-impact weather events associated with the Indian monsoon","authors":"Seshagiri Rao Kolusu, Marion Mittermaier, Joanne Robbins, Raghavendra Ashrit, Ashis K. Mitra","doi":"10.1002/met.2139","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2139","url":null,"abstract":"We assess the skill of the fully coupled lagged ensemble forecasts from GloSea5-GC2, for the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale up to 4 weeks, with the aim of understanding how these forecasts might be used in a Ready-Set-Go style decision-making framework. Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG-GPM) are used to seamlessly verify these ensemble forecasts up to monthly timescales whereby forecast and observed precipitation fields are summed over a sequence of increasing lead time accumulation windows (LTAWs), from 1d1d up to 2w2w. Results show that model biases grow with increasing LTAW and with ensemble member age. The S2S model exhibits both wet and dry biases across different parts of the Indian domain. The S2S model error grows from around 10 mm for a 24-h accumulation to 50 mm for the 2-week LTAWs. The actual skill and potential skill of the ensemble forecasts reveal that the potential skill is not always greater than actual skill everywhere. The sensitivity to the number and age of ensemble members was tested, with potential skill showing more impact from the exclusion of older members at all LTAWs. We conclude that the older lagged members do not necessarily add value by being included in the short to medium range or even for the extended range forecasts. GloSea5-GC2 shows some skill in detecting large accumulations, which are not always tied to locations where they are climatologically frequent.","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2139","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45448383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Greenland ice sheet rainfall climatology, extremes and atmospheric river rapids 格陵兰冰盖降雨气候学，极端和大气河流急流

IF 2.7 4区地球科学

Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2023-07-11 DOI: 10.1002/met.2134

Jason E. Box, Kristian P. Nielsen, Xiaohua Yang, Masashi Niwano, Adrien Wehrlé, Dirk van As, Xavier Fettweis, Morten A. Ø. Køltzow, Bolli Palmason, Robert S. Fausto, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Baojuan Huai, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Kirsty Langley, Armin Dachauer, Brice Noël

{"title":"Greenland ice sheet rainfall climatology, extremes and atmospheric river rapids","authors":"Jason E. Box, Kristian P. Nielsen, Xiaohua Yang, Masashi Niwano, Adrien Wehrlé, Dirk van As, Xavier Fettweis, Morten A. Ø. Køltzow, Bolli Palmason, Robert S. Fausto, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Baojuan Huai, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Kirsty Langley, Armin Dachauer, Brice Noël","doi":"10.1002/met.2134","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.2134","url":null,"abstract":"Greenland rainfall has come into focus as a climate change indicator and from a variety of emerging cryospheric impacts. This study first evaluates rainfall in five state-of-the-art numerical prediction systems (NPSs) (CARRA, ERA5, NHM-SMAP, RACMO, MAR) using in situ rainfall data from two regions spanning from land onto the ice sheet. The new EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Arctic Regional ReAnalysis (CARRA), with a relatively fine (2.5 km) horizontal grid spacing and extensive within-model-domain observational initialization, has the lowest average bias and highest explained variance relative to the field data. ERA5 inland wet bias versus CARRA is consistent with the field data and other research and is presumably due to more ERA5 topographic smoothing. A CARRA climatology 1991–2021 has rainfall increasing by more than one-third for the ice sheet and its peripheral ice masses. CARRA and in situ data illuminate extreme (above 300 mm per day) local rainfall episodes. A detailed examination CARRA data reveals the interplay of mass conservation that splits flow around southern Greenland and condensational buoyancy generation that maintains along-flow updraft ‘rapids’ 2 km above sea level, which produce rain bands within an atmospheric river interacting with Greenland. CARRA resolves gravity wave oscillations that initiate as a result of buoyancy offshore, which then amplify from terrain-forced uplift. In a detailed case study, CARRA resolves orographic intensification of rainfall by up to a factor of four, which is consistent with the field data.","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2134","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43262437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2