Meteorological Applications最新文献

{"title":"","authors":"","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"33 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148087649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving Numerical Weather Forecasts of Rainfall Over Central Africa Using a Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Technique and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model","authors":"Taguemfo Kammalac Jores,&nbsp;Vondou Derbetini Appolinaire,&nbsp;Igri Moudi Pascal,&nbsp;Kamsu Tamo Pierre Honoré","doi":"10.1002/met.70201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70201","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The impact of satellite radiance data assimilation using the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) technique within the WRFDA system was investigated to assess potential improvements in numerical weather forecasts over Central Africa. Eight experiments grouped into two sets were conducted for four extreme rainfall events, including the catastrophic flood that occurred in Douala on August 21, 2020: a control simulation without data assimilation (WRF) and a simulation including radiance assimilation (WRFDA). Results indicate that the assimilation of satellite radiances can lead to modest improvements in the representation of rainfall and atmospheric variables. For rainfall, the correlation coefficient remains relatively low (around 0.43–0.44) due to the strong spatial variability associated with convective systems. However, the WRFDA simulation slightly reduces forecast errors, with RMSE decreasing from about 7.5 mm in WRF to about 7.1 mm and MAE decreasing from approximately 3.8 to 3.6 mm. For near-surface temperature, both simulations show relatively high correlations (generally above 0.85) with similar error levels, indicating that the assimilation produces only limited changes in temperature fields. Relative humidity exhibits moderate correlations (around 0.70–0.82), with comparable performance between WRF and WRFDA. For precipitable water, correlations are generally high, reaching values close to unity for some events, suggesting that the large-scale atmospheric moisture content is reasonably well represented. Overall, the results suggest that satellite radiance assimilation in WRFDA can slightly improve the representation of rainfall and atmospheric moisture over Central Africa, although the differences between the WRF and WRFDA simulations remain relatively moderate. These findings highlight the potential value of satellite data assimilation for improving short-term weather forecasts in data-sparse and convectively active tropical environments.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"33 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70201","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148049165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Laboratory Characterization of Cryogenic Frost-Point Hygrometers Using an Upper Air Simulator","authors":"Sang-Wook Lee,&nbsp;Seonwoong Kim,&nbsp;Sunghun Kim,&nbsp;Young-Suk Lee,&nbsp;Yong-Gyoo Kim","doi":"10.1002/met.70190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70190","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cryogenic frost-point hygrometers (CFHs) are essential tools for reference-level water vapor measurements in the upper atmosphere. This study evaluates CFH's measurements on frost-points, with a focus on the transition from supercooled dew-point to frost-point, the accuracy, and stability of measurements across varying frost-point conditions, and the effect of airflow temperature. An upper air simulator (UAS) is used to generate frost-points traceable to water vapor standards. The CFH measures these frost-points inside a climate chamber that regulates the ambient temperature. As the frost-point was lowered from −5°C, CFH measurements consistently tracked closer to the supercooled dew-point than to the frost-point until the dew-point reached approximately −26.5°C, at which point the measurement transitioned to the frost-point. A method based on the frequency components of optical signals is proposed to differentiate between supercooled water and frost. The standard deviations of the CFH measurements increased from 0.009°C to 0.031°C, 0.172°C, and 0.356°C as the frost point decreased from −5°C to −39.5°C, −66°C, and −75°C, respectively, indicating less effective operation of the proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller at lower water vapor pressures. The mean differences between the UAS and CFH measurements ranged from −0.042°C to 0.125°C across the above frost points and remained within the combined uncertainty of the two systems, which ranged from 0.11°C to 0.15°C over the same range. Additionally, CFH measurements were slightly lower at higher airflow temperatures compared to lower temperatures for the same water vapor pressure, potentially due to the condensate's exposure to warmer airflow, which led to evaporation and slight discrepancies in mirror temperature. The systematic bias of the CFH in response to changes in ambient airflow temperature remains at (−0.83 ± 0.26) mK K⁻¹ over the frost-point range from −66°C to −23°C but increases sharply at −5°C, reaching −5.3 mK K⁻¹. By combining CFHs with a humidity generator traceable to water vapor standards, this study establishes a robust laboratory framework for quantitatively evaluating CFH performance under simulated upper-atmospheric conditions. The findings provide essential insight into the interpretation of CFH measurements in atmospheric sounding observations.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"33 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70190","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148048033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"","authors":"","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"33 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148075495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"","authors":"","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"33 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148066621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring Health Locus of Control and Risk Perception: Connecting Efficacy to Protective Action Through Winter Weather Forecast Messages","authors":"Zoey Rosen,&nbsp;Will Livingston","doi":"10.1002/met.70180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70180","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Health impacts are a major consequence of extreme winter weather, yet they are not usually part of forecast messages. Healthcasting, which describes the addition of health impact information into weather messages, has the potential to influence how people interpret and respond to forecasted winter weather events. We investigated the influence of individuals' psychological predictors (efficacy and health locus of control) on risk perception and protective behavioral intention through a 2 (winter weather type: extreme cold versus ice storm) × 2 (impact information: health or no health) between-subjects experimental design. We found that while there were no statistically significant effects between the health and no-health impact information conditions on risk perception or protective action likelihood, there were statistically significant relationships between psychological predictors. Health locus of control (HLOC) was a modest but significant negative predictor of risk perception, and both self-efficacy and response efficacy strongly predicted protective action likelihood. Subgroup analyses by gender and self-reported health status also confirmed relationships between risk perception and protective action likelihood. While substituting a health impact statement for a non-health impact statement did not change global risk perception or protective intention in this study, the finding that psychological predictors of risk perception did have this impact has the potential to be a valuable aspect to consider for testing the effectiveness of future health communication in winter forecast messaging.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"33 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70180","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148046857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"TURAAB: A 34-Year Dust and Atmospheric Regional Reanalysis for the Middle East, North Africa and Mediterranean—First Insights","authors":"Platon Patlakas,&nbsp;Ioannis Chaniotis,&nbsp;Christos Stathopoulos,&nbsp;Zakiah Alhajji,&nbsp;Ishaq Dimeji Sulaymon,&nbsp;Alaa Mhawish,&nbsp;Jumaan Alqahtani","doi":"10.1002/met.70185","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.70185","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region exhibits distinctive climate behavior, shaped by complex topography and large-scale circulation, while warming and aridification intensify extremes. Desert dust, present year-round at high concentrations, perturbs the radiative budget, interacts with clouds, and modulates the evolution of high-impact events—directly affecting health, transport, aviation, and regional economies. Existing regional and global aerosol reanalyses offer broad coverage, but in most cases do not provide long-term, dust-inclusive fields at high spatial resolution for the Mediterranean–MENA region. To address this gap, we introduce TURAAB, a 34-year (1990–2023), 6 km horizontal resolution, hourly regional reanalysis for the MENA–Mediterranean domain. The climatology delivers a consistent suite of atmospheric and dust-related fields across surface, column, and pressure levels. We evaluate core meteorological variables against ground-based observation networks and place particular emphasis on dust, benchmarking against established observational and reanalysis products. Overall, the system performs robustly across regions and regimes. TURAAB supports both climatological analyses and event-scale diagnostics, enabling detection of trends, anomalies, and potential climate shifts in meteorological and dust fields. By coupling high spatial–temporal detail with multi-decadal consistency, it provides a policy-relevant foundation for research, climate-risk assessment, mitigation planning, and other applications in air quality and health, solar-energy performance, and transport/aviation operations. The dataset also offers operational relevance for dust-prone regions, where high-frequency dust events demand fine-scale, high-frequency monitoring.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"33 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70185","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148039797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"","authors":"","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"33 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148064811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"","authors":"","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"33 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148093738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Applicability Study of a Diffusion Transformer Forecasting Model in the Complex Terrain of Guizhou","authors":"Congying Li,&nbsp;DeXuan Kong,&nbsp;Chen Yuan,&nbsp;Tingting Liao,&nbsp;Yajing Zhi,&nbsp;Biao Wang,&nbsp;Yu Zhou,&nbsp;Gaojian Ge,&nbsp;Shi Pu","doi":"10.1002/met.70186","DOIUrl":"10.1002/met.70186","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Precipitation nowcasting in complex terrains like the Guizhou Plateau is challenged by the blurry forecasts and premature dissipation common in traditional and early deep learning models. To address this, this study evaluates HARE, a novel nowcasting model based on a state-of-the-art Diffusion Transformer (DiT) architecture, against the operational Fenglei model benchmark. HARE generates 0–2 h forecasts by learning from historical radar sequences, and its performance was systematically assessed using a 142-day macroscopic verification (including critical success index (CSI), probability of detection, false alarm rate, and bias) and microscopic diagnosis of two typical severe weather events. The results demonstrate HARE's clear superiority: its mean CSI (0.2842) was significantly higher than Fenglei's (0.1692), and it exhibited slower performance decay. Critically, case studies revealed that HARE successfully predicted key dynamic processes, such as new convective cell initiation and the full life-cycle of a squall line, which the benchmark model failed to capture, instead showing an erroneous dissipation trend. These findings confirm the significant advantages of the DiT architecture, whose self-attention mechanism and generative paradigm are key to capturing complex convective evolution with high fidelity. This work underscores the potential of next-generation artificial intelligence models while also highlighting that future breakthroughs will likely depend on integrating such data-driven approaches with atmospheric physics.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"33 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70186","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148039945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}