Meteorological Applications最新文献

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How concerning is Lucifer? Insights from an experimental study of public responses to heat event naming in England and Italy 路西法有多令人关注?从英国和意大利公众对热事件命名反应的实验研究中获得的启示
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1002/met.70017
Barbara Summers, Andrea Taylor, Pietro Bellomo, Suraje Dessai
{"title":"How concerning is Lucifer? Insights from an experimental study of public responses to heat event naming in England and Italy","authors":"Barbara Summers,&nbsp;Andrea Taylor,&nbsp;Pietro Bellomo,&nbsp;Suraje Dessai","doi":"10.1002/met.70017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70017","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Summer 2023 saw record high temperatures across several European countries with these heat events being unofficially dubbed Cerberus and Charon. This has led to discussion about whether naming severe heat events is an effective way to convey the risks posed. In online experiments with regionally representative sample of members of the public in England and Italy, we assessed the effect of giving a heat event a mythological, non-mythological or no name on anticipated severity, concern, trust/confidence and behavioural intention. We find that while naming alone does not have a strong effect on anticipated response to severe heat events in either country, going against the established trend of using mythological names in Italy could diminish concern.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70017","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142708197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Enhancing multivariate post-processed visibility predictions utilizing Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service forecasts 利用哥白尼大气监测服务预测加强多变量后处理能见度预测
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-11-24 DOI: 10.1002/met.70015
Mária Lakatos, Sándor Baran
{"title":"Enhancing multivariate post-processed visibility predictions utilizing Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service forecasts","authors":"Mária Lakatos,&nbsp;Sándor Baran","doi":"10.1002/met.70015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70015","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In our contemporary era, meteorological weather forecasts increasingly incorporate ensemble predictions of visibility—a parameter of great importance in aviation, maritime navigation, and air quality assessment, with direct implications for public health. However, this weather variable falls short of the predictive accuracy achieved for other quantities issued by meteorological centers. Therefore, statistical post-processing is recommended to enhance the reliability and accuracy of predictions. By estimating the predictive distributions of the variables with the aid of historical observations and forecasts, one can achieve statistical consistency between true observations and ensemble predictions. Visibility observations, following the recommendation of the World Meteorological Organization, are typically reported in discrete values; hence, the predictive distribution of the weather quantity takes the form of a discrete parametric law. Recent studies demonstrated that the application of classification algorithms can successfully improve the skill of such discrete forecasts; however, a frequently emerging issue is that certain spatial and/or temporal dependencies could be lost between marginals. Based on visibility ensemble forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for 30 locations in Central Europe, we investigate whether the inclusion of Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) predictions of the same weather quantity as an additional covariate could enhance the skill of the post-processing methods and whether it contributes to the successful integration of spatial dependence between marginals. Our study confirms that post-processed forecasts are substantially superior to raw and climatological predictions, and the utilization of CAMS forecasts provides a further significant enhancement both in the univariate and multivariate setup. We also demonstrate that post-processing significantly improves the predictions of low visibility events, which opens the door for aeronautical applications.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70015","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142708003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Atmospheric icing meteorological parameter study using field experiments and simulation 利用现场实验和模拟进行大气结冰气象参数研究
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1002/met.70013
Xingbo Han, Muhammad Virk, Hamza Asif, Anssi Mäkynen, Harri Juttula, Eero Molkoselkä, Ville A. Kaikkonen
{"title":"Atmospheric icing meteorological parameter study using field experiments and simulation","authors":"Xingbo Han,&nbsp;Muhammad Virk,&nbsp;Hamza Asif,&nbsp;Anssi Mäkynen,&nbsp;Harri Juttula,&nbsp;Eero Molkoselkä,&nbsp;Ville A. Kaikkonen","doi":"10.1002/met.70013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70013","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Atmospheric icing on ground structures is a concern from design, operation, and safety perspectives. Supercooled water droplets size and liquid water content (LWC) are important weather parameters to better understand the ice accretion physics on ground structures. Most existing studies are based on measurements at high altitude. The study is based on the field results of a specific event (from 9:30 to 22:27 h on October 29, 2022) in Arctic region of northern Norway. The data from this event are presented and used for analytical validation and simulation. Field measurements of different meteorological weather parameters including the droplet size and LWC are carried out leading to recording of resultant atmospheric ice load and intensity. A comprehensive study is also carried out to validate droplet collision efficiency and ice load using the existing analytical model ISO-12494 and computational fluid dynamics (CFD)–based numerical simulations. Furthermore, the differences in icing simulation using parameters such as median volume diameter (MVD), Langmuir B –J as alternatives to the actual droplet size distribution (DSD) spectrum are also analyzed. The results show that under natural meteorological conditions, the characteristics of water DSD change in real time. Using MVD alone to calculate the water droplet collision efficiency on circular cylinders can lead to significant errors. Accurately selecting the Langmuir distribution as a substitute for the actual DSD can reduce simulation errors to within 5%. Compared to the analytical model, the numerical simulations result better reflects the collision characteristics of water droplets of different sizes on the cylindrical object.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70013","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142641665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Simulation of emissions from pottery kilns in the Roman period 罗马时期陶窑排放模拟
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1002/met.70010
Clemens Drüe
{"title":"Simulation of emissions from pottery kilns in the Roman period","authors":"Clemens Drüe","doi":"10.1002/met.70010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70010","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Present-day air quality is known through dense monitoring and extensive pollution control mechanisms. In contrast, knowledge of historical pollution, particularly before the industrial revolution, is accessible only through occasional reports of singular local events and through natural archives such as ice or sediment cores that record global-scale pollution. However, the regular local to regional pollution that most affects human life is hardly known. Historical sciences have argued both for and against significant air pollution in and around historic cities and manufacturing sites. For the Roman era, it has been hypothesized that air quality played a role in several patterns of action of the period. However, to the author's knowledge, there are no quantitative studies of Roman emissions. Using the results of modern experimental archaeology, this study attempts to quantify the emissions from Roman pottery kilns and their impact on surrounding human settlements. It is shown that although the pollution did not reach today's limits, it must have approached levels known to cause adverse health effects. A series of additional test simulations have been conducted to determine how these first results might be improved in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70010","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142641419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
MERIDA HRES: A new high-resolution reanalysis dataset for Italy MERIDA HRES:意大利新的高分辨率再分析数据集
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1002/met.70011
Francesca Viterbo, Simone Sperati, Bruno Vitali, Filippo D'Amico, Francesco Cavalleri, Riccardo Bonanno, Matteo Lacavalla
{"title":"MERIDA HRES: A new high-resolution reanalysis dataset for Italy","authors":"Francesca Viterbo,&nbsp;Simone Sperati,&nbsp;Bruno Vitali,&nbsp;Filippo D'Amico,&nbsp;Francesco Cavalleri,&nbsp;Riccardo Bonanno,&nbsp;Matteo Lacavalla","doi":"10.1002/met.70011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70011","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Power utilities are increasingly emphasizing the need for high-resolution reanalysis datasets to develop resilience plans for protecting and managing infrastructure against extreme weather events. In response, Ricerca Sul Sistema Energetico (RSE) S.p.A. created the new MEteorological Reanalysis Italian DAtaset (MERIDA) High-RESolution (HRES) reanalysis, a 4-km resolution dataset with explicit convection specifically designed for Italy. This dataset, publicly available from 1986 to the present, has been evaluated and compared with the previously developed MERIDA reanalysis dataset (7-km resolution over Italy) and ERA5, the global reanalysis driver. The validation is conducted across different scales (i.e., from climatology to single extreme events) and for multiple variables (i.e., 2-meter temperature, daily total precipitation, and 10-meter wind speed). Specific cases, such as a convective storm in July 2016 in northern Italy near Bergamo and the more synoptically driven Vaia storm in October 2018, are analyzed to illustrate the dataset's potential in capturing precipitation and wind extremes. Additionally, the Arbus wildfire event in Sardinia is examined to showcase a multivariable application for assessing fire weather hazards. Through performance maps and statistical analyses, the ability of MERIDA HRES to represent both long-term statistics and extreme events is highlighted. Despite a consistent cold temperature bias across Italy, with higher peaks over mountainous regions, the performance of precipitation and wind outperforms that of both MERIDA and ERA5 in all analyzed cases. These findings demonstrate the significant potential of this product for multiple applications in Italy.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142641390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluation of forecasted wind speed at turbine hub height and wind ramps by five NWP models with observations from 262 wind farms over China 利用中国 262 个风电场的观测数据,评估五个 NWP 模型对风机轮毂高度和风斜率风速的预报
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1002/met.70007
Chenxi Jin, Yang Yang, Chao Han, Ting Lei, Chen Li, Bing Lu
{"title":"Evaluation of forecasted wind speed at turbine hub height and wind ramps by five NWP models with observations from 262 wind farms over China","authors":"Chenxi Jin,&nbsp;Yang Yang,&nbsp;Chao Han,&nbsp;Ting Lei,&nbsp;Chen Li,&nbsp;Bing Lu","doi":"10.1002/met.70007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70007","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurate wind speed forecasts are essential for optimizing the efficiency of wind energy operations. Currently, there is limited research on nationwide assessment of predictive performance in multiple numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for wind speed at turbine hub height over China, especially concerning wind ramp events. Utilizing observed measurements from 262 wind farms, this study evaluated the performance of five NWP models in forecasting the mean state and spatiotemporal variations of wind speed as well as wind ramps. The results indicated that the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF–IFS) performed the best in forecasting climatological wind speed with a temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) of 0.74 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.34 m s<sup>−1</sup>. Although not widely utilized in China, the model from Meteo-France (MF–ARPEGE) showed promising potential for wind energy forecasting with a TCC of 0.72 and RMSE of 2.45 m s<sup>−1</sup>. In terms of temporal variations of wind speed, all the models could reasonably predict the seasonal variations of wind speed, whereas only three NWP models were able to capture the characteristics of the observed diurnal variation. An error decomposition analysis further revealed that the primary source of predicted error for wind speed was the sequence error component (SEQU), indicating the model errors were mainly attributed from the temporal inconsistency between forecasts and observations. Furthermore, the occurrences of wind ramps were generally underestimated by NWP models, while this shortcoming can be partly overcome by improving the time resolution of NWP models.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70007","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142561644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fidelity of global tropical cyclone activity in a new reanalysis dataset (CRA40) 新的再分析数据集(CRA40)中全球热带气旋活动的保真度
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1002/met.70009
Jinxiao Li, Qun Tian, Zili Shen, Yongfang Xu, Zixiang Yan, Majun Li, Chuandong Zhu, Jiaqing Xue, Zouxing Lin, Yaoxian Yang, Lingjun Zeng
{"title":"Fidelity of global tropical cyclone activity in a new reanalysis dataset (CRA40)","authors":"Jinxiao Li,&nbsp;Qun Tian,&nbsp;Zili Shen,&nbsp;Yongfang Xu,&nbsp;Zixiang Yan,&nbsp;Majun Li,&nbsp;Chuandong Zhu,&nbsp;Jiaqing Xue,&nbsp;Zouxing Lin,&nbsp;Yaoxian Yang,&nbsp;Lingjun Zeng","doi":"10.1002/met.70009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70009","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study systematically evaluated global tropical cyclone (TC) activity in a new global atmospheric reanalysis dataset named the “40-year Global Reanalysis” (CRA40) against the best track data. For comparison, four state-of-the-art reanalyses—ERA5, JRA55, CFSR, and MERRA2—were also assessed. The results showed that there is a general underestimation of global TC genesis frequency and intensity in both CRA40 and other reanalyses. A detailed investigation of spatial distribution, seasonality, interannual variation, and long-term trend for TC genesis frequency, as well as pressure–wind relationship for TC intensity, revealed similarities and differences among these reanalyses datasets. Overall, CRA40 does not exhibit clear advantages over other reanalyses in these aspects, but its biases are also not more pronounced. However, regarding TC translation speed, CRA40 outpeforms other reanalyses, evident by its high level of consistency with the observation in the zonal average pattern, meridional distribution at peak latitudes, and interannual variation, suggesting its reasonable capability in capturing large-scale atmospheric characteristics. Our findings indicate that the use of CRA40 is appropriate for conducting TC-related studies, within the scope of its limitations.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70009","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tall tower observations of a northward surging gust front in central Amazon and its role in the mesoscale transport of carbon dioxide 高塔观测亚马逊中部向北涌动的阵风前沿及其在二氧化碳中尺度迁移中的作用
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1002/met.70002
Luciane I. Reis, Maurício I. Oliveira, Cléo Q. Dias-Júnior, Hella van Asperen, Luca Mortarini, Otávio C. Acevedo, Christopher Pöhlker, Leslie A. Kremper, Bruno Takeshi, Carlos A. Quesada, Daiane V. Brondani
{"title":"Tall tower observations of a northward surging gust front in central Amazon and its role in the mesoscale transport of carbon dioxide","authors":"Luciane I. Reis,&nbsp;Maurício I. Oliveira,&nbsp;Cléo Q. Dias-Júnior,&nbsp;Hella van Asperen,&nbsp;Luca Mortarini,&nbsp;Otávio C. Acevedo,&nbsp;Christopher Pöhlker,&nbsp;Leslie A. Kremper,&nbsp;Bruno Takeshi,&nbsp;Carlos A. Quesada,&nbsp;Daiane V. Brondani","doi":"10.1002/met.70002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70002","url":null,"abstract":"<p>High-frequency measurements obtained at two micrometeorological towers are investigated for a rare northward surging gust front that impacted the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO), in central Amazon. The gust front originated from a decaying mesoscale convective system (MCS) during the morning hours of 27 December 2021 near Manaus, Amazonas state, northern Brazil, and surged north-eastward towards the ATTO site. Large temperature drops and vigorous, persistent winds were observed at the towers which lasted for over 4 h despite the gust front being detached from its parent, decaying MCS. More importantly, the gust front was responsible for drastic increases of CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations throughout the tower depths, which suggests that the gust front winds horizontally advected CO<sub>2</sub>-rich air from a source upstream from the ATTO site. The CO<sub>2</sub>-rich outflow is hypothesized to originate from downward transport and/or biomass burning from forest fires in southeastern Amazon, both ideas that are supported by large increases of aerosol concentrations measured at ATTO following the gust front passage. Our results stress the need for further investigations addressing the role played by mesoscale convective circulations in the redistribution of trace gases and aerosols in the Amazon.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Predicting dryland winter wheat yield in cold regions of Iran 伊朗寒冷地区旱地冬小麦产量预测
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1002/met.70008
Fatemeh Razzaghi, Razieh Ghahramani, Ali Reza Sepaskhah, Shahrokh Zand-Parsa
{"title":"Predicting dryland winter wheat yield in cold regions of Iran","authors":"Fatemeh Razzaghi,&nbsp;Razieh Ghahramani,&nbsp;Ali Reza Sepaskhah,&nbsp;Shahrokh Zand-Parsa","doi":"10.1002/met.70008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70008","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wheat is a crucial staple worldwide, serving both human and animal needs. In Iran, where climate conditions vary widely, wheat farming faces significant challenges, especially in areas facing freezing winters and unfavorable temperatures during reproductive stages. Unfortunately, existing models often fail to account these extreme and specific climate conditions, leading to inaccurate predictions, notably in cold areas. To address this issue, wheat dryland farming (WDF) model was evaluated in predicting dryland winter wheat yields in five distinct areas including Shahrekord, Borujen, Koohrang, Farsan, Lordegan, and Ardal in Chahar-Mahal and Bakhtiari province, Iran. The results showed that changes in precipitation and temperature significantly impacted dryland wheat production. While higher precipitation generally associates with higher yields, this relationship is not always straightforward due to factors like unfavorable precipitation patterns and types (i.e., rainfall or snow). Likewise, unfavorable temperatures, particularly during crucial growth stages and winter freezes, pose significant challenges to wheat growth and yield modeling. The WDF model's performance was evaluated across various temperature conditions in the study area, and it was more accurate in regions with certain minimum and maximum temperature values above thresholds. However, the model performance was poor in colder areas, where freezing temperatures were occurred in winter duration (Shahrekord, Borujen, Koohrang, and Farsan). In order to improve the model's accuracy, a correction factor based on the minimum and maximum air temperatures was incorporated in the model. The findings emphasized the importance of considering both precipitation and temperature dynamics when modeling winter wheat yields, especially in regions with diverse climates. By refining models like WDF, agricultural planners can better forecast the yield fluctuations and address the impacts of climate variability on food security in Iran and similar regions worldwide.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70008","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142449188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How dependent are quantitative volcanic ash concentration and along-flight dosage forecasts to model structural choices? 定量火山灰浓度和沿飞行剂量预报对模型结构选择的依赖程度如何?
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1002/met.70003
Lauren A. James, Helen F. Dacre, Natalie J. Harvey
{"title":"How dependent are quantitative volcanic ash concentration and along-flight dosage forecasts to model structural choices?","authors":"Lauren A. James,&nbsp;Helen F. Dacre,&nbsp;Natalie J. Harvey","doi":"10.1002/met.70003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70003","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Producing quantitative volcanic ash forecasts is challenging due to multiple sources of uncertainty. Careful consideration of this uncertainty is required to produce timely and robust hazard warnings. Structural uncertainty occurs when a model fails to produce accurate forecasts, despite good knowledge of the eruption source parameters, meteorological conditions and suitable parameterizations of transport and deposition processes. This uncertainty is frequently overlooked in forecasting practices. Using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model, simulations with varied output spatial resolution, temporal averaging period and particle release rate are performed to quantify the impact of these structural choices. This experiment reveals that, for the 2019 Raikoke eruption, structural choices give measurements of peak ash concentration spanning an order of magnitude, significantly impacting decision-relevant thresholds used in aviation flight planning. Conversely, along-flight dosage estimates exhibit less sensitivity to structural choices, suggesting it is a more robust metric to use in flight planning. Uncertainty can be reduced by eliminating structural choices that do not result in a favourable level of agreement with a high-resolution reference simulation. Reliable forecasts require output spatial resolution <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>≤</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ le $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> 80 km, temporal averaging periods <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>≤</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ le $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> 3 h and particle release rates <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>≥</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ ge $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> 5000 particles/h. This suggests that simulations with relatively small numbers of particles could be used to produce a large ensemble of simulations without significant loss of accuracy. Comparison with previous Raikoke simulations indicates that the uncertainty associated with these constrained structural choices is smaller than those associated with satellite constrained eruption source parameter and internal model parameter uncertainties. Thus, given suitable structural choices, other epistemic sources of uncertainty are likely to dominate. This insight is useful for the design of ensemble methodologies which are required to enable a shift from deterministic to probabilistic forecasting. The results are applicable to other long-range dispersion problems and to Eulerian dispersion models.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142443423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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