Public HealthPub Date : 2024-10-26DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.008
Su Wei Wan , Lina Choe , Annur Binte Eidie Rizal Daariin , Gretel Jianlin Wong , Ker Kan Tan
{"title":"Determinants of pneumococcal vaccination among older adults: A scoping review","authors":"Su Wei Wan , Lina Choe , Annur Binte Eidie Rizal Daariin , Gretel Jianlin Wong , Ker Kan Tan","doi":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>To identify the range of factors that impact health behaviours pertaining to the uptake of pneumococcal vaccination (PV) among older persons.</div></div><div><h3>Study design</h3><div>Scoping review.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This review followed Arksey and O'Malley's framework. Five databases: PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Scopus and Embase were searched for relevant studies on PV uptake among outpatient older adults ≥65 years published between January 2013 and October 2023. Data were extracted and verified using a standardised template, and synthesised using inductive content analysis. Findings were classified according to Andersen's behavioural model of health services use (BMHSU).</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Twenty-seven papers were included in the final analysis. Reception of PV was influenced by predisposing factors such as (i) awareness and risk perception, (ii) demographic characteristics, and (iii) cultural beliefs towards preventive medicine; enabling factors including (i) disease and vaccine literacy, (ii) past experience with preventive health services, and (iii) access to relevant resources; as well as reinforcing factors namely, (i) vaccine efficacy and safety, (ii) social influence, (iii) support from healthcare professionals, and (iv) vaccine administration environment.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Older adults’ health behaviours, particularly their attitudes towards vaccination are often complex and this attests to the need for multidimensional, cross-sector barrier-specific strategies to raise PV coverage. Key issues identified in this review highlight the focus areas that healthcare providers, policy makers and other stakeholders should collaborate on to resolve underutilisation of preventive medicine and promote health among this population.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49651,"journal":{"name":"Public Health","volume":"237 ","pages":"Pages 245-260"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142539545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Public HealthPub Date : 2024-10-25DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.013
Reem Miqdadi , Motasem Hamdan
{"title":"Key stakeholders’ perspectives of public health emergency preparedness in Palestine: A qualitative exploratory study","authors":"Reem Miqdadi , Motasem Hamdan","doi":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>Palestine continues to face emergencies and a series of humanitarian crises. This study aims to comprehend emergency planning and response including the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Comprehending and recording these experiences will facilitate on-going improvement of Palestine's Public Health Emergency Preparedness (PHEP).</div></div><div><h3>Study design</h3><div>A qualitative exploratory study.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Fifteen semi-structured interviews were conducted with key informant decision-makers representing various sectors of the Palestinian health system. The data collection period took place from April 2022–December 2022. A convenient purposive sample was chosen based on identifying important stakeholders in the West Bank's health sector. Every interview was transcribed. Major themes and subthemes were identified using content thematic analysis.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The study demonstrates Palestine's inadequate preparation for emergencies, instead there is a focus on response once a crisis has occurred. No national entity or mechanism is leading the collective preparedness efforts, which might ultimately result in a stronger emergency response. Instead, the efforts are dispersed across several entities, and decisions are not made cooperatively. As for resources, the study indicates that an emergency budget has not been allocated. The study showed a good degree of multi-sectoral collaboration with some reservations regarding the creation of various committees and their efficacy in handling crises.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>The findings made it abundantly evident that significant efforts are needed to improve Palestine's level of preparedness and planning. One of the study's primary conclusions is that the health sector must shift from a reactionary to a preparedness-oriented mindset. Additionally, it is necessary to keep an eye on any changes in the nation's health and analysis must take place to strengthen the health system's response plans. Moreover, the activation of the emergency operation center in Palestine is one of the key advancements of the preparedness system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49651,"journal":{"name":"Public Health","volume":"237 ","pages":"Pages 232-237"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142511692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Public HealthPub Date : 2024-10-24DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.06.011
{"title":"Global, regional, and national burden of injuries, and burden attributable to injuries risk factors, 1990 to 2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.06.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.06.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>In this study, the trends and current situation of the injury burden as well as attributable burden to injury risk factors at global, regional, and national levels based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 are presented.</div></div><div><h3>Study design</h3><div>To assess the attributable burden of injury risk factors, the data of interest on data sources were retrieved from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) and analyzed.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Cause-specific death from injuries was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model in the GBD 2019. The burden attributable to each injury risk factor was incorporated in the population attributable fraction to estimate the total attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) was used to evaluate countries’ developmental status.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Globally, there were 713.9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 663.8 to 766.9) injuries incidence and 4.3 million (UI: 3.9 to 4.6) deaths caused by injuries in 2019. There was an inverse relationship between age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate and SDI quintiles in 2019. Overall, low bone mineral density was the leading risk factor of injury deaths in 2019, with a contribution of 10.5% (UI: 9.0 to 11.6) of total injuries and age-standardized deaths, followed by occupational risks (7.0% [UI: 6.3–7.9]) and alcohol use (6.8% [UI: 5.2 to 8.5]).</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>Various risks were responsible for the imposed burden of injuries. This study highlighted the small but persistent share of injuries in the global burden of diseases and injuries to provide beneficial data to produce proper policies to reach an effective global injury prevention plan.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49651,"journal":{"name":"Public Health","volume":"237 ","pages":"Pages 212-231"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142511690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Public HealthPub Date : 2024-10-23DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.020
Zhongliang Ma , Xueying Xiang , Yuyang Chai , Jing Wang , Cailing Ma
{"title":"The application value of low-risk human papillomavirus testing in cervical cancer prevention and treatment in low- and middle-resource areas","authors":"Zhongliang Ma , Xueying Xiang , Yuyang Chai , Jing Wang , Cailing Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.020","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.020","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>To assess the application value of low-risk human papillomavirus (lrHPV) detection in the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in low- and middle-resource areas (LMRAs).</div></div><div><h3>Study design</h3><div>A retrospective cross-sectional study.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Cervical HPV typing results were collected from 2019 to 2023, utilizing fluorescence PCR technology. An adjusted logistic regression model was used to assess the relative risk (OR) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) for co-infection with lrHPV and high-risk HPV (hrHPV).</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Out of 113,883 women included in the study, the overall lrHPV positivity rate was 1.9 %. In total, 47.7 % (1033/2167) of lrHPV positive women also had hrHPV co-infections. Multivariate analysis identified 12 hrHPV subtypes (T-hrHPV) significantly associated with co-infection risk, including HPV16, 31, 33, 39, 51, 52, 53, 56, 59, 66, 68, and 73. The risk of T-hrHPV infection was 3.77 times higher (95 % CI: 3.44-4.12) for women with a single lrHPV infection and 9.71 times higher (95 % CI: 4.72-19.99) for those with two lrHPV infections. Women screened in the gynecological outpatient clinic faced a T-hrHPV infection risk 2.64 times higher (95 % CI: 2.54-2.74) than those in the general health check department.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>lrHPV positivity significantly increases the risk of T-hrHPV co-infection, particularly under multiple infections, highlighting the importance of comprehensive HPV screening in LMRAs. The notable differences in T-hrHPV infection risks across various screening settings highlight their critical role in cervical cancer prevention and offer new insights into optimizing vaccination strategies to enhance effective prevention and treatment in LMRAs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49651,"journal":{"name":"Public Health","volume":"237 ","pages":"Pages 205-211"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142511695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Public HealthPub Date : 2024-10-22DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.003
Andrew CK. Lee
{"title":"Is England's National Health Service broken?","authors":"Andrew CK. Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.003","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49651,"journal":{"name":"Public Health","volume":"237 ","pages":"Pages 203-204"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142511691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Public HealthPub Date : 2024-10-22DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.011
Mario Alejandro Bautista-Vargas , Adrian Felipe Romero-Ocampo , Paola Andrea Cuestas-Grijalba , Juan Santiago Serna-Trejos , Laura Carolina Neira-Ruiz , Daniela Trujillo-Loaiza , Jennifer Alejandra Hurtado-Leiton , Diego Rosselli
{"title":"Prevalence of sarcoidosis in Colombia: An analysis of the Ministry of Health databases","authors":"Mario Alejandro Bautista-Vargas , Adrian Felipe Romero-Ocampo , Paola Andrea Cuestas-Grijalba , Juan Santiago Serna-Trejos , Laura Carolina Neira-Ruiz , Daniela Trujillo-Loaiza , Jennifer Alejandra Hurtado-Leiton , Diego Rosselli","doi":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>Sarcoidosis is a disease whose prevalence varies considerably worldwide. In Colombia, the Ministry of Health has strengthened the Comprehensive System of Social Protection Information (SISPRO) to collect data on the provision of health services at the national level, thus providing a source of information available for research. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of sarcoidosis using consultation records collected between January 2018 and December 31, 2022.</div></div><div><h3>Study design</h3><div>Cross-sectional study.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted using the SISPRO database and the relevant International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes for sarcoidosis (D860, D861, D862, D863, D868, D869, G532, M633).</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>During the mentioned period, a total of 6828 patients were identified, of which 66.9 % were women (4571 patients). The prevalence of sarcoidosis was estimated at 12.8 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, being higher in the age group of 60–69 years.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>The information obtained from this study highlights the importance of continuing to monitor and evaluate the burden of sarcoidosis in the country, which can contribute to a better understanding of the disease's epidemiology and, in turn, to the planning of early diagnosis and timely treatment strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49651,"journal":{"name":"Public Health","volume":"237 ","pages":"Pages 198-202"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142511693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Public HealthPub Date : 2024-10-22DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.09.029
Sayuri Fujita-Imazu , Stuart Gilmour , Yijing Wang , Jinzhao Xie , Bibha Dhungel , Xinran Wang , Phuong Nguyen , July Khin Maung Soe , Erika Ota , Nushrat Alam Biva , Jinghua Li
{"title":"The effect of drugs and guns on life expectancy in the United States, 2000–2020","authors":"Sayuri Fujita-Imazu , Stuart Gilmour , Yijing Wang , Jinzhao Xie , Bibha Dhungel , Xinran Wang , Phuong Nguyen , July Khin Maung Soe , Erika Ota , Nushrat Alam Biva , Jinghua Li","doi":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.09.029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.09.029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>This study estimated the effect of changing trends in drug- and firearm-related mortality on life expectancy in the U.S. over the last two decades.</div></div><div><h3>Study design</h3><div>Retrospective cross-sectional study.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We used national vital registration data from CDC WONDER, stratified by sex, to estimate the mortality rate due to accidental and intentional poisoning (ICD Codes X40-X49, X60-X69, Y10-Y19 and X85), and firearm deaths (ICD codes W32-W34, X72-X74, X93-X95, Y22-Y24) for the period 2000–2020. We applied standard life table methods to all cause mortality rates with and without these mortality causes to estimate the life expectancy at each age over this period.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>In 2020, mortality due to drugs and firearms combined reduced male life expectancy by1.67 years compared to 0.67 years in 2000, and without the effect of these two causes of death, male life expectancy in 2019 would have been 78.02 years. For women, drugs and firearm-related mortality reduced life expectancy by 0.20 years in 2000 and 0.63 years in 2020, and female life expectancy would have been 82.25 years in 2019 without the retarding effect of these two preventable causes.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Drug- and firearm-related deaths have increased so rapidly, especially among younger populations, that life expectancy at birth is significantly reduced by these causes of death. Without urgent action to tackle these preventable causes of death, US life expectancy will continue to stagnate and may even decline, even without the effect of COVID-19.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49651,"journal":{"name":"Public Health","volume":"237 ","pages":"Pages 193-197"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142511706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Public HealthPub Date : 2024-10-18DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.006
Eduardo Botti Abbade
{"title":"The cost of obesity and related NCDs in Brazil: An analysis of hospital admissions, disability retirement benefits, and statutory sick pay","authors":"Eduardo Botti Abbade","doi":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>This study analyses the prevalence of overweight/obesity in Brazil, and its costs regarding hospital admissions (HA), disability retirement benefits (DRB), and statutory sick pay (SSP) associated with obesity-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs).</div></div><div><h3>Study design</h3><div>Time-series study.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This study analyses data from the VIGITEL system (2010–2019) to calculate the body-mass index (BMI) of adult residents in Brazil's state capitals. Data on HA, DRB, and SSP were obtained from Brazil's SIH/SUS and AEPS Infologo systems. Pearson's correlation and linear regression models were applied. The study selected 23 diseases of the International Classification of Disease (ICDs) belonging to chapters C; E; I; and K. Cost values in BRL were deflated using IPCA.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The results showed a significant increase in overweight and obesity rates in Brazil, with BMI rising by 0.09 kg/m<sup>2</sup> annually. Regression analysis revealed that each 1-point increase in the average BMI of the population is associated with an increase of 81,772 (BRL 237.51 million/year) new HA per year, 5541 (BRL 18.8 million/year) new DRB granted per year, and 42,360 (BRL 131 million/year) new SSP per year. Also, every 1 % increase in the share of the Brazilian population with obesity is associated with an increase of 16,973 (BRL 48.8 million/year) new HA per year, 1202 (BRL 3.97 million/year) new DRB granted per year, and 8686 (BRL 26.8 million/year) new SSP per year. Regressions for deflated values showed lower significance, suggesting a strong impact of inflation on health costs in Brazil.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Obesity prevalence in Brazil implies high direct and indirect costs for the Brazilian government, especially considering circulatory system diseases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49651,"journal":{"name":"Public Health","volume":"237 ","pages":"Pages 184-192"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142479085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Public HealthPub Date : 2024-10-17DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.004
Funanani Mashau , Ayokunle C. Dada , Luyanda Msolo , Kingsley E. Ebomah , Temitope C. Ekundayo , Chidozie D. Iwu , Nolonwabo Nontongana , Anthony I. Okoh
{"title":"Factors affecting detection and estimation of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration of COVID-19 positive cases in wastewater influent: A systematic review","authors":"Funanani Mashau , Ayokunle C. Dada , Luyanda Msolo , Kingsley E. Ebomah , Temitope C. Ekundayo , Chidozie D. Iwu , Nolonwabo Nontongana , Anthony I. Okoh","doi":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objective</h3><div>Wastewater Based Surveillance (WBS) has emerged as a novel monitoring tool for tracking and estimating the dissemination of the Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) within communities.</div></div><div><h3>Study design</h3><div>The goal of this review is to assess the factors that influence estimations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration estimations in wastewater.</div></div><div><h3>Systematic review</h3><div>The goal of this review is to assess the factors that influence estimations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration estimations in wastewater.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>A literature search was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) criteria in the electronic databases Scopus, PubMed, Google Scholar, and Medline. The overall quality, sample methodologies, quantification methods, and estimating approaches of selected papers were assessed.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Our findings reveal that 16 out of 24 articles (67 %) focused on physiochemical analyses. This review showed that sampling strategies and laboratory methodologies play a crucial role in the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater samples. Moreover, we found that WBS-based estimation of COVID-19 is influenced by several factors such as wastewater temperature, shedding rate, and population size.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>This review reveals that the identified parameters require adjustments to achieve optimum conditions that accurately predict community infections. Including these factors that influence the estimation of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater is essential for developing effective public health strategies to combat the spread of COVID-19.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49651,"journal":{"name":"Public Health","volume":"237 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142442718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Public HealthPub Date : 2024-10-17DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.09.023
Meng Zhou , Qicheng Zhu , Yucheng Xu , Zhifeng Zhou , Congrui Guo , Zhiping Lin , Xinyi Zhang , Zhipeng Yang , Xueyun Li , Wei Lin
{"title":"A nomogram to predict long COVID risk based on pre- and post-infection factors: Results from a cross-sectional study in South China","authors":"Meng Zhou , Qicheng Zhu , Yucheng Xu , Zhifeng Zhou , Congrui Guo , Zhiping Lin , Xinyi Zhang , Zhipeng Yang , Xueyun Li , Wei Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.09.023","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.09.023","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>Long COVID has received much attention as a complex multi-system disease due to its serious impact on quality of life. However, there remains inconsistent results in terms of risk factors, and a prediction model for the accurate prediction of long COVID is still lacking.</div></div><div><h3>Study design</h3><div>Cross-sectional study.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this retrospective study, a community population from the Futian District of Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China, were included. Data were collected from September to December 2023 using an electronic questionnaire. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictors of long COVID. Pre-infection and post-infection prediction models (with/without post-infection characteristics) were developed, and the C-index was used to evaluate accuracy.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>In total, 420 patients infected COVID-19 were included. The prevalence of long COVID was 32.9 %. The most common symptoms of long COVID were weakness/fatigue, persistent cough and cognitive dysfunction. Independent predictors of long COVID included in the pre-infection model were age, long-term medication, and psychological problems such as stress and doing things without enthusiasm/interest before COVID-19 infection (C-index: 0.721). Independent predictors included in the post-infection model were age, inability to concentrate before COVID-19 infection, and symptoms of weakness/fatigue, abnormal smell/taste, diarrhoea, eye conjunctivitis and headache/dizziness during the acute-phase (C-index: 0.857).</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Age, psychological problems before COVID-19 infection and acute-phase symptoms were important risk factors of long COVID. Results from the pre-infection model provide guidance for non-infected individuals on how to prevent long COVID. Results from the post-infection model can be used to accurately predict individuals who are at high risk of long COVID and help design treatment plans for patients in the acute phase.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49651,"journal":{"name":"Public Health","volume":"237 ","pages":"Pages 176-183"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142446970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}