The future patterns of displacement and its escalating global health needs

Abstract

Objectives

The Global Displacement Forecast Report 2025 aims to project trends in forced displacement globally, with a specific focus on the health outcomes of displaced populations. This article aims to offer primary drivers of displacement, assess the associated health impacts, and propose policy and operational responses to address the humanitarian and public health consequences.

Study Design

This is a brief report that reflects a policy analysis leveraging quantitative modeling with qualitative assessments.

Methods

The report reflects on future displacement trends through 2026. It analyzes conflict data, climate indicators, humanitarian funding trends, and health system capacities to assess displacement risks and impacts.

Results

The report forecasts an increase of 6.7 million forcibly displaced persons by the end of 2026, bringing the global total to over 130 million. Key displacement drivers include armed conflict, targeted violence (including attacks on healthcare), climate-related disasters, and shrinking humanitarian funding. Displacement is found to significantly exacerbate health crises, with rising rates of malnutrition, infectious diseases, and mental health disorders.

Conclusions

Displacement is evolving into a long-term structural phenomenon, driven by interconnected factors of conflict, climate change, and governance failure. Addressing its health dimensions requires integrated, anticipatory approaches, including the inclusion of displaced populations in national health systems, expansion of mobile and cross-border health services, and restoration of humanitarian funding.