Journal of Flood Risk Management最新文献

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From warm seas to flooded streets: The impact of sea surface temperature on cutoff low and extreme rainfall in Valencia, Spain 从温暖的海洋到被淹没的街道:海面温度对西班牙瓦伦西亚低降雨量和极端降雨量的影响
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13055
Afshin Amiri, Silvio Jose Gumiere, Bahram Gharabaghi, Hossein Bonakdari
{"title":"From warm seas to flooded streets: The impact of sea surface temperature on cutoff low and extreme rainfall in Valencia, Spain","authors":"Afshin Amiri, Silvio Jose Gumiere, Bahram Gharabaghi, Hossein Bonakdari","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13055","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The catastrophic October 2024 flood in Valencia, Spain, highlights the increasing risk of extreme weather due to global climate change. The frequency of extreme weather events, including floods, has significantly risen in recent decades, with climate change as a primary driver (Bolan et al., <span>2023</span>; Easterling et al., <span>2000</span>; Newman & Noy, <span>2023</span>). Rising global temperatures and atmospheric energy have intensified rainfall events (Al-Ghussain, <span>2018</span>; Karl & Trenberth, <span>2003</span>), with cutoff low-pressure systems (COLs) playing a notable role. COLs are cold-cored systems in the mid-troposphere, often marked by a sharp temperature gradient on their eastern side (Nieto et al., <span>2008</span>). Key regions prone to COLs include southern Europe, the eastern Atlantic, the eastern North Pacific, and areas from northern China through Siberia (Nieto et al., <span>2005</span>). In particular, southern Europe and the eastern Atlantic are highly vulnerable to COL-driven heavy rainfall. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) further influences COL activity by altering large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (Pinheiro et al., <span>2022</span>). During ENSO events, SST shifts increase the probability of COL formation, leading to extreme rainfall (Ferreira, <span>2021</span>). Climate projections suggest that COL-induced precipitation could rise significantly with continued warming, increasing flood risks in regions like eastern Spain, including Valencia. Warmer SSTs enhance moisture convergence in COLs, fueling convective cloud formation and intense precipitation (Pinheiro et al., <span>2022</span>). Thus, changes in SSTs directly link warming oceans to the intensification of flood events, as exemplified in Valencia. This study underscores the need for improved flood forecasting and urban resilience planning to address escalating climate-induced hazards.</p><p>On October 29, 2024, a cold drop event involving COLs led to severe flash flooding across southern and southeastern Spain, with Valencia experiencing significant impacts. Rainfall exceeded historical records, overwhelming flood infrastructure. In the Júcar Basin, a crucial water resource in eastern Spain, accumulated rainfall reached 107.43 mm between October 29 and November 1, 2024, with a maximum of 610.9 mm recorded by GSMaP data. The basin received an estimated 4.453 billion cubic meters of water, surpassing drainage capacities and causing widespread inundation and structural damage. Extensive human and economic losses affected homes, businesses, and infrastructure across eastern, southeastern, and southern Spain, severely impacting transportation, agriculture, and daily life.</p><p>Figure 1a presents Sentinel-2 satellite images illustrating the conditions in southern Valencia before and after the recent flood, with the city itself located in the map's northern section. A false-color combination (Bands","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13055","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Flood Frequency Analysis in West Africa 西非洪水频率分析
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70001
Serigne Bassirou Diop, Yves Tramblay, Ansoumana Bodian, Job Ekolu, Nathalie Rouché, Bastien Dieppois
{"title":"Flood Frequency Analysis in West Africa","authors":"Serigne Bassirou Diop,&nbsp;Yves Tramblay,&nbsp;Ansoumana Bodian,&nbsp;Job Ekolu,&nbsp;Nathalie Rouché,&nbsp;Bastien Dieppois","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70001","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Devastating flood events are recurrently impacting West Africa. To mitigate flood impacts and reduce the vulnerability of populations, a better knowledge on the frequency of these events is crucial. The lack of reliable hydrometric datasets has hitherto been a major limitation in flood frequency analysis at the scale of West Africa. Utilising a recently developed African database, we perform a flood frequency analysis on the annual maximum flow (AMF) time series, covering 246 river basins in West Africa, between 1975 and 2018. Generalized extreme value (GEV) and Gumbel probability distributions were compared to fit AMF time series with the L-moments, Maximum Likelihood (MLE) and Generalized Maximum Likelihood (GMLE) methods. Results indicated that the GEV distribution with the GMLE method provided the best results. Regional envelope curves covering the entire West African region with unprecedented data coverage have been generated for the first-time providing insights for the estimation in flood quantiles for ungauged basins. The correlation between flood quantiles and watershed properties shows significant correlations with catchment area, groundwater storage, altitude and topographic wetness index. The findings from this study are useful for a better flood risk assessment and the design of hydraulic infrastructures in this region, and are a first step prior to the development of regional approaches to transfer the information from gauged sites to ungauged catchments.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment for Multiple Flood and Levee Breaching Scenarios: A Case Study of Etobicoke Creek, Canada 洪涝和决堤多重情景下的概率洪水灾害评估——以加拿大怡陶碧谷河为例
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70002
Florence Mainguenaud, Usman T. Khan, Laurent Peyras, Claudio Carvajal, Bruno Beullac, Jitendra Sharma
{"title":"Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment for Multiple Flood and Levee Breaching Scenarios: A Case Study of Etobicoke Creek, Canada","authors":"Florence Mainguenaud,&nbsp;Usman T. Khan,&nbsp;Laurent Peyras,&nbsp;Claudio Carvajal,&nbsp;Bruno Beullac,&nbsp;Jitendra Sharma","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70002","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flood hazard assessment is crucial to mitigate the risks associated with flooding. Integrating levee failure scenarios into these assessments should improve the evaluation of flood risks and enhance the resilience of communities and infrastructure. This research presents a probabilistic flood hazard approach to assess levee failure and its impact on flood hazard. Our method includes a comprehensive assessment of backward erosion and overflowing failure mechanisms, integrated within a 1D/2D hydraulic model that simulates flood propagation and levee breaching. We calculate the cumulative probability of flood depth and velocity considering various scenarios, taking into account levee failure breaching for various failure mechanisms and several flood intensities. We apply the method to a residential area along Etobicoke Creek in Ontario, Canada. The results highlight which levee segment has the most impact on flood hazard, emphasizing the importance of incorporating levee failure scenarios in flood hazard assessments. The cumulative probability curve provides a more holistic result in locating the most hazardous areas rather than considering one return period or one failure mechanism. It can be expended to every location of the protected area, allowing for the creation of a probabilistic map for a desired probability.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improving the Accuracy of Flood Damage Assessments to Residential Structures via the Use of Experimental Data 利用实验数据提高住宅结构洪水损害评估的准确性
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70003
Anna Katya Opel, Elizabeth Chisolm Matthews
{"title":"Improving the Accuracy of Flood Damage Assessments to Residential Structures via the Use of Experimental Data","authors":"Anna Katya Opel,&nbsp;Elizabeth Chisolm Matthews","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70003","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The current practice of flood loss prediction presents limitations in accurately predicting building flood losses at multiple scales. While whole-building estimates can more accurately predict high-level losses (i.e., large groups of buildings), a significant analysis error is revealed with small-scale (i.e., individual, or small groups of buildings) investigation. This research presents a more robust, data driven, small-scale, flood damage estimation approach for residential buildings. The approach is based on component-level, depth–damage curves derived from experimental analysis. Structures with standard residential construction materials typical to the south-eastern United States were built and incrementally flooded for short durations. The materials were assessed to determine the level of damage inflicted. This experimentally derived damage data were then translated into a set of flood depth–damage functions (DDFs). The DDFs were tailored for analysis at smaller scales and incorporated the ability to apply damage uncertainty in damage analysis. To demonstrate the applicability of the experimentally derived DDFs to damage estimation at smaller scales, the functions are applied to a hypothetical building design typical of the south-eastern United States.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Managing the health effects of floods in Libya 管理利比亚洪水对健康的影响
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13054
Faisal Ismail, Atiya Farag, Soghra Haq
{"title":"Managing the health effects of floods in Libya","authors":"Faisal Ismail,&nbsp;Atiya Farag,&nbsp;Soghra Haq","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13054","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;In recent years, climate change has led to unusual weather events such as extreme rainfall, storms, and drought in several parts of the world (Kundzewicz et al., &lt;span&gt;2014&lt;/span&gt;). Although Libya is not considered a flood-prone region; on Sunday 10 September 2023, Storm Daniel struck the eastern parts of the country and caused the most catastrophic floods in the country's history. Several Libyan cities were affected, although none were as severely damaged as Derna City. In Derna, the two main dams collapsed, causing huge amounts of water to flood several neighborhoods resulting in thousands of victims being killed, thousands more missing, and tens of thousands of people being displaced to live in shelters. The catastrophic storm also caused massive destruction of buildings and vital infrastructure including roads, bridges, and healthcare facilities (Marshall, &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;; World Health Organization, &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Several factors contributed to this indescribable damage, including the negligence of maintenance of dams and roads, the urban sprawl to flood-prone regions, the political and military conflict in the country, corruption and poor preparedness, and weak response to international storm warnings. All of these factors combined, supported by the heavy precipitation, led to an unprecedented disaster in the country's history. Furthermore, such disasters and emergencies are likely to affect the health system infrastructure and supply, thereby reducing the ability to provide health services to the affected areas. In addition, the drowning and physical injuries; as well as other health-related consequences such as infections, psychological effects, and malnutrition may follow (Paterson et al., &lt;span&gt;2018&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As the country is not usually susceptible to flooding, there was no official public health response plan in place. However, to better manage the health consequences of these floods, a team of experts and literature reviews have brought together a summary of the most important health measures to inform a flood health response plan (Fatemi &amp; Moslehi, &lt;span&gt;2022&lt;/span&gt;; World Health Organization, &lt;span&gt;2017&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;However, several factors may create significant challenges for emergency response, including communication and transportation disruptions due to the damage to the roads, the power supply, and the communications networks, which would make it difficult for rescue teams to reach the affected areas and to contact those who need assistance. Inadequate resources are another major challenge, such as a shortage of personnel, equipment, medical supplies, emergency shelters, water testing kits, chemicals for vector control, and so forth. Other challenges can result from the government's slow response to the emergency, the emergency response organization, volunteers' coordination, providing resources to support the emergency aid, and calling on wider assistance if needed.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This study sought to provi","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13054","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143114904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Systematic numerical analysis of the hydraulic parameters responsible for critical flows in anthropogenically modified mountain channels for flood analysis and mitigation 为洪水分析和减灾而对人为改变的山渠中临界流量的水力参数进行系统的数值分析
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-14 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13056
C. Hauer, L. Schmalfuss, U. Pulg
{"title":"Systematic numerical analysis of the hydraulic parameters responsible for critical flows in anthropogenically modified mountain channels for flood analysis and mitigation","authors":"C. Hauer,&nbsp;L. Schmalfuss,&nbsp;U. Pulg","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13056","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The damage potential in river systems due to flood flows has increased as a result of the increased infrastructure and population growth along river corridors, frequently accompanied by an incomplete understanding of flood safety and the impact of climate change. In particular, so-called catastrophic flood events in alpine areas are generally accompanied by massive channel beds and floodplain erosion with a higher damage potential than inundation only. It has been recently shown that critical flow conditions might be an important driver of uncontrolled erosion and channel avulsion in terms of extraordinary flood events. A systematic analysis, however, of the parameters driving critical flow conditions is lacking. Thus, the aim of this study was to conduct a systematic numerical evaluation of the hydraulic parameters responsible for critical flows in steep mountain channels as a baseline study for future improved flood impact assessment and mitigation measure design. The systematic analysis of standardized river bathymetries revealed that channel slope, roughness and river widening impose decreasing influences on alpine rivers to produce critical flow conditions. However, there is a risk that due to human interventions, altering the natural slope–roughness relationship to increase the discharge capacity for flood safety might promote critical conditions. These findings should be considered in future hydraulic engineering practice.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13056","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143114803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Aggregating flood damage functions: The peril of Jensen's gap 洪水破坏函数的聚合:詹森缺口的危险
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-14 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13053
Seth Bryant, Jody Reimer, Heidi Kreibich, Bruno Merz
{"title":"Aggregating flood damage functions: The peril of Jensen's gap","authors":"Seth Bryant,&nbsp;Jody Reimer,&nbsp;Heidi Kreibich,&nbsp;Bruno Merz","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13053","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flood risk models provide important information for disaster planning through estimating flood damage to exposed assets, such as houses. At large scales, computational constraints or data coarseness often lead modelers to aggregate asset data using a single statistic (e.g., the mean) prior to applying non-linear damage functions. This practice of aggregating inputs to nonlinear functions introduces error and is known as <i>Jensen's inequality</i>; however, the impact of this practice on flood risk models has so far not been investigated. With a Germany-wide approach, we isolate and compute the error resulting from aggregating four typical concave damage functions under 12 scenarios for flood magnitude and aggregation size. In line with Jensen's 1906 proof, all scenarios result in an overestimate, with the most extreme scenario of a 1 km aggregation for the 500-year flood risk map yielding a country-wide average bias of 1.19. Further, we show this bias varies across regions, with one region yielding a bias of 1.58 for this scenario. This work applies Jensen's 1906 proof in a new context to demonstrate that <i>all</i> flood damage models with concave functions will introduce a positive bias when aggregating and that this bias can be significant.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13053","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143114804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Application of a fuzzy, indicator-based methodology for investigating the functional vulnerability of critical infrastructures to flood hazards 应用基于模糊指标的方法调查关键基础设施在洪水灾害中的功能脆弱性
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-07 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13030
Negin Binesh, Giuseppe T. Aronica, Emina Hadzic, Suada Sulejmanovic, Hata Milisic, Miranda Deda, Halim Koxhai, Simon McCarthy, Laura Rossello, Christophe Viavattene, Fehad Mujic, Giuseppina Brigandi, Simone Gabellani, Rocco Masi
{"title":"Application of a fuzzy, indicator-based methodology for investigating the functional vulnerability of critical infrastructures to flood hazards","authors":"Negin Binesh,&nbsp;Giuseppe T. Aronica,&nbsp;Emina Hadzic,&nbsp;Suada Sulejmanovic,&nbsp;Hata Milisic,&nbsp;Miranda Deda,&nbsp;Halim Koxhai,&nbsp;Simon McCarthy,&nbsp;Laura Rossello,&nbsp;Christophe Viavattene,&nbsp;Fehad Mujic,&nbsp;Giuseppina Brigandi,&nbsp;Simone Gabellani,&nbsp;Rocco Masi","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13030","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hazard vulnerability assessment of critical infrastructures (CIs) is crucial for ranking infrastructures based on their level of criticality, enabling the urban managers to prioritize CIs for allocating funds in the hazard mitigation/recovery process. This study aims to provide a framework for ranking CIs based on a rapid and preliminary flood vulnerability assessment by introducing a methodology for classifying CIs according to their vulnerability to riverine flooding. An indicator-based vulnerability curve is calculated both quantitatively (using Fuzzy Logic Toolbox in MATLAB) and qualitatively (using susceptibility–exposure matrix), based on which CIs prioritization is accomplished with a focus on functional flood vulnerability considering structural/nonstructural damages. Besides, this study addresses the consequences that a damaged infrastructure may have on the rest of CIs and estimates their vulnerability given the additive impact of the surrounding failed infrastructures considering their interdependence. The methodology was applied to Berat (Albania) and Sarajevo (Bosnia-Herzegovina) with findings compared to those of a multi-criteria decision-making-based approach commonly used in CI ranking literature. The obtained results from both methods represent that roads are the most vulnerable studied infrastructure in the case of Berat, while regarding the city of Sarajevo, road infrastructures are considered the least vulnerable to riverine floods compared to bridges and schools.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13030","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143379896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Storm surge barrier performance—The effect of barrier failures on extreme water level frequencies 风暴潮屏障性能-屏障失效对极端水位频率的影响
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-12-29 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13048
L. F. Mooyaart, A. M. R. Bakker, J. A. van den Bogaard, R. E. Jorissen, T. Rijcken, S. N. Jonkman
{"title":"Storm surge barrier performance—The effect of barrier failures on extreme water level frequencies","authors":"L. F. Mooyaart,&nbsp;A. M. R. Bakker,&nbsp;J. A. van den Bogaard,&nbsp;R. E. Jorissen,&nbsp;T. Rijcken,&nbsp;S. N. Jonkman","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13048","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Sea level rise necessitates the upgrade of coastal flood protection including storm surge barriers. These large movable hydraulic structures are open in normal conditions, but close during a storm surge to prevent coastal floods in bays and estuaries. Barrier improvements lower their susceptibility to operational, structural, or height-related failures. However, there is no method to determine the relative importance of these three barrier failure types. Here, we present a probabilistic method to systematically organize barrier failures and storm conditions to establish exceedance frequencies of extreme water levels behind the barrier. The method is illustrated by an assessment of extreme water level frequencies at Rotterdam (The Netherlands), which is protected by the Maeslant barrier. Four combinations of barrier states and storm conditions were analyzed and prioritized in the following order: (1) an operational failure with 1/100 year storm conditions, (2) a successful closure with an extreme (~1/1000 year) river discharge accumulating behind the barrier, (3) structural failure, and (4) insufficient height both with extreme storm conditions (10<sup>–6</sup> year). The case study confirmed the method's ability to systematically explore promising barrier improvements to adapt to sea level rise, in this case, lowering the susceptibility toward operational failures.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13048","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143120253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Application of forecast-informed reservoir operations at US Army Corps of Engineers dams in California 美国陆军工程兵团在加利福尼亚大坝的水库预报应用
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13051
Joe Forbis, Cuong Ly
{"title":"Application of forecast-informed reservoir operations at US Army Corps of Engineers dams in California","authors":"Joe Forbis,&nbsp;Cuong Ly","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13051","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) prescribes flood control operations for reservoirs it regulates in watershed-specific water control manuals (WCMs), which can be decades-old and may not capture changed conditions in the watersheds or include the benefit of state-of-the-science weather and streamflow prediction. Considering the specific characteristics of a reservoir, forecast-informed reservoir operations (FIRO) may be used to enhance flood risk reduction, improve water availability, and achieve other benefits. The first FIRO pilot project at Lake Mendocino in California focused on determining if water supply reliability could be improved using FIRO without increasing flood risk. The final report concluded that FIRO concepts could indeed improve water supply reliability while enhancing flood risk reduction. Subsequently, USACE chose additional reservoir systems in California with different characteristics as additional pilot study locations to further investigate FIRO concepts. These successful FIRO efforts have provided justification to continue its expansion beyond the initial pilot sites. The lessons learned from the FIRO pilot projects are being used to inform the development of the FIRO Screening Process, a screening level framework intended to scale up the implementation of FIRO. The lessons learned could support FIRO implementation at suitable USACE reservoirs by updating WCMs.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13051","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142861404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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