Journal of Flood Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"Sensitivity analysis on stormwater management response to land cover dynamics and urban expansion of developing City in Lake Hawassa watershed, Ethiopia","authors":"Abreham Birhane Kassay,&nbsp;Abraham Woldemichael Tuhar,&nbsp;Mihret Dananto Ulsido","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.12994","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jfr3.12994","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hawassa is a rapidly developing city in Lake Hawassa watershed of Ethiopia. Analyzing the effect of land cover dynamics on surface runoff remains imperative to adaptive urban stormwater management. This study quantified spatial variation of land cover and sensitivity of stormwater management response. Historical 30 years of daily annual rainfall, three satellite imageries, DEM, and hydrological soil group data were analyzed. A statistical-based combined approach of geospatial techniques and Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) model was employed. CN and surface runoff depth for the delineated urban watersheds were determined. The result revealed that the built-up area increased by 30.9 km², where the rate varies spatially. The variation of impervious land cover explains 58.6% of change in CN with coefficient of 0.352. While CN is inversely correlated with agricultural and vegetation land cover variations. The finding suggests CN explains 96.78% of the change in surface runoff with a significant correlation coefficient of 3.91. The proposed integrated model approach justifies the potential to reorganize the relationship between the spatial effect of land cover variation on surface runoff at the urban watersheds. Thus, suitable local-specific solutions can be devised for effective management of flood risk and optimize the drainage system of urban areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"17 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12994","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140709052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A framework for modelling the probability of flooding under levee breaching","authors":"Thomas Wallace,&nbsp;Kaley Crawford-Flett,&nbsp;Matthew Wilson,&nbsp;Tom Logan","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.12988","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jfr3.12988","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Levees aim to provide protection during floods, however, these structures can breach, causing significant damage. Flood maps that include levee breaching are often limited to deterministic methods. Where probabilistic breaching is done, it often requires computationally expensive Monte Carlo simulations and an understanding of the geotechnical levee properties that are often limited. In this paper, we combine existing fragility curves and empirical breaching equations with a framework for automating levee breaching in catchments with limited geotechnical information. This method can be adapted and applied to existing 2D flood models to determine the probability of inundation, given that a breach occurs. This ultimately allows for greater emergency responses and land use planning to reduce the flood risk faced by our communities. The method was applied to four case study catchments. The results showed that including levee breaching in one catchment led to an average increase in the inundated area by 48.2% and a tripling in the potentially exposed area. However, breaching in some locations reduced the inundation extent by 12%, illustrating the potential for fuse plug levees and floodways as a flood mitigation strategy. This strategy has seen successful usage internationally. Further investigation is recommended to consider whether these mitigation strategies should be enacted.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"17 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12988","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140706775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using multi-criteria decision-making methods in prioritizing structural flood control solutions: A case study from Iran","authors":"Hossein Hamidifar,&nbsp;Faezeh Yaghoubi,&nbsp;Pawel M. Rowinski","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.12991","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jfr3.12991","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Effective management of flood risks requires the prioritization of appropriate flood control solutions. This study aims to prioritize structural flood control options using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. Four MCDM methods, namely analytic hierarchy process, technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution, multi-criteria optimization and compromise solution, and Fuzzy-VIKOR are employed to assess and rank the flood control options based on multiple criteria. Field surveys, interviews with local authorities and experts, and on-site assessments of existing flood control structures constituted the primary data collection methods. The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of reservoir dams, retention basins, and levees as viable solutions. Conversely, flood control gates and the no-project options were assigned lower priorities. The findings highlight the importance of considering multiple MCDM methods to account for variations in rankings. The study provides valuable insights into the decision-making process for prioritizing flood control options in the study area. These findings can assist policymakers and stakeholders in effectively allocating resources and implementing appropriate structural flood control measures to mitigate flood risks.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"17 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12991","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140719256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Gauged and historical abrupt wave front floods (‘walls of water’) in Pennine rivers, northern England","authors":"David Archer,&nbsp;Samuel Watkiss,&nbsp;Sarah Warren,&nbsp;Rob Lamb,&nbsp;Hayley J. Fowler","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.12989","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jfr3.12989","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Extremely rapid rates of rise in level and discharge in a subset of flash floods (‘abrupt wave front floods’, AWF) are separate hazards from peak level. Such flood events are investigated for Pennine catchments in northern England using both gauged and historical information. Gauged level and flow digital records at 15-min intervals provide recent data. Historical information for 122 AWF events is extracted from a chronology of flash floods for Britain. Historical AWF events are mapped and found to occur on every major Pennine catchment; catchment descriptors are derived as a basis for assessing catchment vulnerability. We discuss the disputed origin of AWF. Using gauged data, we contrast the rising limb of AWF and ‘normal’ floods. We investigate time series of historical AWF, noting a puzzling peak in the late 19th century. Current rainfall and river monitoring does not provide a reliable basis for understanding AWF processes or for operational response and we suggest improvements. Similarly, current models for design flood estimation and forecasting do not generate the observed rapid increase in level in AWF floods.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"17 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12989","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140717357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Overcoming data utilization challenges for built environment flood resilience: Strategies and best practices","authors":"Pavithra Rathnasiri,&nbsp;Onaopepo Adeniyi,&nbsp;Niraj Thurairajah","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.12986","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jfr3.12986","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Built environment flood resilience is a critical challenge facing communities worldwide. Amongst various efforts to resilience, the conception towards data utilization becomes popular with enormous technological advancements. Built environment creates varieties of data at larger volumes throughout their life cycle signifying that the importance of these data in the context of flood resilience cannot be ignored. However, despite the power of data, the greatest opportunities that exist for flood resilience enhancement have been mired by numerous and complex unidentified challenges. Thus, identifying these challenges with timely relevant strategies is a significant need. One of the best ways to tackle these challenges is by viewing them through the lens of data life cycle stages. This study, therefore, aimed to identify these challenges in each stage of the data life cycle with strategies to overcome them. Semi-structured interviews conducted with 12 experts revealed the significant challenges allied with built environment data with potential future strategies. The qualitative content analysis was conducted to analyse the findings. The use of advanced sensing technologies, cloud-based storage solutions, data governance policies and the development of predictive models are some of the consequential strategies outlined in this study. These findings provide valuable insights and guidance to facilitate built environment data utilization for flood resilience.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"17 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12986","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140380463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Remote sensing-based mapping of structural building damage in the Ahr valley","authors":"Guilherme Samprogna Mohor,&nbsp;Tobias Sieg,&nbsp;Oliver Koch,&nbsp;Aaron Buhrmann,&nbsp;Holger Maiwald,&nbsp;Jochen Schwarz,&nbsp;Annegret H. Thieken","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.12983","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jfr3.12983","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flood damage data are needed for various applications. Structural damage of buildings can reflect not only the economic damage but also the life-threatening condition of a building, which provide crucial information for disaster response and recovery. Since traditional on-site data collection shortly after a disaster is challenging, remote sensing data can be of great help, cover a wider area and be deployed earlier in time than on-site surveys. However, this has its challenges and limitations. We elucidate on that by presenting two case studies from flash floods in Germany. First, we assessed the reliability of an existing flood damage schema, which differentiates from minor (structural) damage to complete building collapse. We compared two on-site raters of the 2016 Braunsbach flood, reaching an excellent level of reliability. Second, we mapped structural building damage after the flood in the Ahr valley in 2021 using a textured 3D mesh and orthophotos. Here, we evaluated the remote sense-based damage mapping done by three raters. Although the heterogeneity of ratings using remote sensing data is larger than among on-site ratings, we consider it fit-for-purpose when compared with on-site mapping, especially for event documentation and as basis for financial damage estimation and less complex numerical modelling.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12983","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140380574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying compound flood event uncertainties in a wave and tidally dominated coastal region: The impacts of copula selection, sampling, record length, and precipitation gauge selection","authors":"Joseph T. D. Lucey,&nbsp;Timu W. Gallien","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.12984","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jfr3.12984","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Coastal flooding is a growing hazard. Compound event characterization and uncertainty quantification are critical to accurate flood risk assessment. This study presents univariate, conditional, and joint probabilities for observed water levels, precipitation, and waves. Design events for 10- and 100-year marine water level and precipitation events are developed. A total water level formulation explicitly accounting for wave impacts is presented. Uncertainties associated with sampling method, copula selection, data record length, and utilized rainfall gauge are determined. Eight copulas are used to quantify multivariate uncertainty. Generally, copulas present similar results, except the BB5. Sampling method uncertainty was quantified using four sampling types; annual maximum, annual coinciding, wet season monthly maximum, and wet season monthly coinciding sampling. Annual coinciding sampling typically produced the lowest event magnitude estimates. Uncertainty associated with record length was explored by partitioning a 100-year record into various subsets. Withholding 30 years of observations (i.e., records of less than 70 years) resulted in substantial variability of both the 10- and 100-year return period estimates. Approximately equidistant rainfall gauges led to large event estimate differences, suggesting microclimatology and gauge selection play a key role in characterizing compound events. Generally, event estimate uncertainty was dominated by sampling method and rainfall gauge selection.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"17 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12984","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140382255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flood risk management of the future: A warning from a land down under","authors":"Brian R. Cook","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.12985","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12985","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Flooding and flood risk management have a long history in Australia. In 1817, frustrated by recurrent flood disasters and expenditures on disaster relief, the Governor of New South Wales, Lachlan Macquarie, wrote to settlers with a General Order recommending relocation of farmsand no compensation otherwise. This threat was precipitated by settlers building and occupying locations that endangered people, property, and public finances. From 2022 onwards, Australia has again experienced a series of disastrous flood events that have stretched the capacity, resilience, and psyche of the population, leading to expressions of frustration from all involved. These floods have highlighted persistent failures of flood risk management that appear to be worsening. In the two centuries since Lachlan's frustration with our inability to reduce flood risk, it appears that little has changed.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As continued claims and different calculations of impact are produced, the 2022 floods are now estimated to have caused US$8.1 billion dollars of losses (Munich, &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;). The scale of these losses made the 2022 East Coast floods the fourth most costly disaster internationally that year—this for a nation with the 33rd ranked population and the 12th largest economy. During 2022, in the neighboring state of Victoria, floods along the Maribyrnong river in Melbourne's North, affected more than 500 homes. More recently, in East Gippsland in the eastern part of Victoria, the same communities experienced disastrous floods and fires within months of each other. The scale, frequency, and combination of disaster events, together, confirm a new, less-predictable environment in which Australians now must govern. Such scenarios are no longer predictions and warnings but have become an Australian reality.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The Australian experience is neither surprising nor unexpected; it should give others reason to reflect on their own predicted futures. The increased variability and resulting disasters are in line with the IPCC Australasia report (Lawrence et al., &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;, p. 1612), which notes that “Extreme rainfall is projected to become more intense (high confidence), but the magnitude of change is uncertain”. The physical systems that produce flooding are changing, all within the context of countless other pressing governance challenges, including: the push for increased housing stock and affordable housing, water security, generational inequity, tax reform, biodiversity loss, geopolitical pressures in the Pacific, and a cost-of-living crisis. Together, there is a growing disenchantment with Governance in general, which includes flood risk management more specifically. Flood risk in Australia is clearly worsening, but there is need for equal appreciation for the also worsening governance context.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In March of 2022, the NSW government launched a Flood Inquiry into the causes and experiences of the February–March flood events. The report's release in July coincid","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12985","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140181649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wej's Table of Contents","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.12923","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12923","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12923","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140181667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A comparative spatial analysis of flood susceptibility mapping using boosting machine learning algorithms in Rathnapura, Sri Lanka","authors":"Kumudu Madhawa Kurugama,&nbsp;So Kazama,&nbsp;Yusuke Hiraga,&nbsp;Chaminda Samarasuriya","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.12980","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jfr3.12980","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Identifying flood-prone areas is essential for preventing floods, reducing risks, and making informed decisions. A spatial database with 595 flood inventory and 13 flood predictors were used to implement five boosting algorithms: gradient boosting machine (GBM), extreme gradient boosting, categorical boosting, logit boost, and light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) to map flood susceptibility in Rathnapura while evaluating trained model's generalizing ability and assessing the feature importance in flood susceptibility mapping (FSM). The model performance was evaluated using the F1-score, kappa index, and area under curve (AUC) method. The findings revealed that all the models were effective in identifying the overall flood susceptibility trends while LightGBM model had superior results (F1-score = 0.907, Kappa value = 0.813 and AUC = 0.970), securing the top scores across all performance metrics compared to the other models (for testing dataset). Based on kappa evaluation, most of the models had finer performance (AUC _min = 0.737) while LightGBM had moderate performance for predictions beyond the training region. According to the results, regions with lower altitudes and topographic roughness values, moderate rainfall, and proximity to rivers are more susceptible to flooding. This framework can be adapted for rapid FSM in data-deficient regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"17 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12980","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140259624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}