Journal of Flood Risk Management最新文献

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Application of a fuzzy, indicator-based methodology for investigating the functional vulnerability of critical infrastructures to flood hazards 应用基于模糊指标的方法调查关键基础设施在洪水灾害中的功能脆弱性
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-07 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13030
Negin Binesh, Giuseppe T. Aronica, Emina Hadzic, Suada Sulejmanovic, Hata Milisic, Miranda Deda, Halim Koxhai, Simon McCarthy, Laura Rossello, Christophe Viavattene, Fehad Mujic, Giuseppina Brigandi, Simone Gabellani, Rocco Masi
{"title":"Application of a fuzzy, indicator-based methodology for investigating the functional vulnerability of critical infrastructures to flood hazards","authors":"Negin Binesh,&nbsp;Giuseppe T. Aronica,&nbsp;Emina Hadzic,&nbsp;Suada Sulejmanovic,&nbsp;Hata Milisic,&nbsp;Miranda Deda,&nbsp;Halim Koxhai,&nbsp;Simon McCarthy,&nbsp;Laura Rossello,&nbsp;Christophe Viavattene,&nbsp;Fehad Mujic,&nbsp;Giuseppina Brigandi,&nbsp;Simone Gabellani,&nbsp;Rocco Masi","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13030","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hazard vulnerability assessment of critical infrastructures (CIs) is crucial for ranking infrastructures based on their level of criticality, enabling the urban managers to prioritize CIs for allocating funds in the hazard mitigation/recovery process. This study aims to provide a framework for ranking CIs based on a rapid and preliminary flood vulnerability assessment by introducing a methodology for classifying CIs according to their vulnerability to riverine flooding. An indicator-based vulnerability curve is calculated both quantitatively (using Fuzzy Logic Toolbox in MATLAB) and qualitatively (using susceptibility–exposure matrix), based on which CIs prioritization is accomplished with a focus on functional flood vulnerability considering structural/nonstructural damages. Besides, this study addresses the consequences that a damaged infrastructure may have on the rest of CIs and estimates their vulnerability given the additive impact of the surrounding failed infrastructures considering their interdependence. The methodology was applied to Berat (Albania) and Sarajevo (Bosnia-Herzegovina) with findings compared to those of a multi-criteria decision-making-based approach commonly used in CI ranking literature. The obtained results from both methods represent that roads are the most vulnerable studied infrastructure in the case of Berat, while regarding the city of Sarajevo, road infrastructures are considered the least vulnerable to riverine floods compared to bridges and schools.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13030","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143379896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Storm surge barrier performance—The effect of barrier failures on extreme water level frequencies 风暴潮屏障性能-屏障失效对极端水位频率的影响
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-12-29 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13048
L. F. Mooyaart, A. M. R. Bakker, J. A. van den Bogaard, R. E. Jorissen, T. Rijcken, S. N. Jonkman
{"title":"Storm surge barrier performance—The effect of barrier failures on extreme water level frequencies","authors":"L. F. Mooyaart,&nbsp;A. M. R. Bakker,&nbsp;J. A. van den Bogaard,&nbsp;R. E. Jorissen,&nbsp;T. Rijcken,&nbsp;S. N. Jonkman","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13048","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Sea level rise necessitates the upgrade of coastal flood protection including storm surge barriers. These large movable hydraulic structures are open in normal conditions, but close during a storm surge to prevent coastal floods in bays and estuaries. Barrier improvements lower their susceptibility to operational, structural, or height-related failures. However, there is no method to determine the relative importance of these three barrier failure types. Here, we present a probabilistic method to systematically organize barrier failures and storm conditions to establish exceedance frequencies of extreme water levels behind the barrier. The method is illustrated by an assessment of extreme water level frequencies at Rotterdam (The Netherlands), which is protected by the Maeslant barrier. Four combinations of barrier states and storm conditions were analyzed and prioritized in the following order: (1) an operational failure with 1/100 year storm conditions, (2) a successful closure with an extreme (~1/1000 year) river discharge accumulating behind the barrier, (3) structural failure, and (4) insufficient height both with extreme storm conditions (10<sup>–6</sup> year). The case study confirmed the method's ability to systematically explore promising barrier improvements to adapt to sea level rise, in this case, lowering the susceptibility toward operational failures.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13048","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143120253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Application of forecast-informed reservoir operations at US Army Corps of Engineers dams in California 美国陆军工程兵团在加利福尼亚大坝的水库预报应用
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13051
Joe Forbis, Cuong Ly
{"title":"Application of forecast-informed reservoir operations at US Army Corps of Engineers dams in California","authors":"Joe Forbis,&nbsp;Cuong Ly","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13051","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) prescribes flood control operations for reservoirs it regulates in watershed-specific water control manuals (WCMs), which can be decades-old and may not capture changed conditions in the watersheds or include the benefit of state-of-the-science weather and streamflow prediction. Considering the specific characteristics of a reservoir, forecast-informed reservoir operations (FIRO) may be used to enhance flood risk reduction, improve water availability, and achieve other benefits. The first FIRO pilot project at Lake Mendocino in California focused on determining if water supply reliability could be improved using FIRO without increasing flood risk. The final report concluded that FIRO concepts could indeed improve water supply reliability while enhancing flood risk reduction. Subsequently, USACE chose additional reservoir systems in California with different characteristics as additional pilot study locations to further investigate FIRO concepts. These successful FIRO efforts have provided justification to continue its expansion beyond the initial pilot sites. The lessons learned from the FIRO pilot projects are being used to inform the development of the FIRO Screening Process, a screening level framework intended to scale up the implementation of FIRO. The lessons learned could support FIRO implementation at suitable USACE reservoirs by updating WCMs.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13051","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142861404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Combination of dynamic TOPMODEL and machine learning techniques to improve runoff prediction 结合动态TOPMODEL和机器学习技术改进径流预测
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-12-08 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13050
Pin-Chun Huang
{"title":"Combination of dynamic TOPMODEL and machine learning techniques to improve runoff prediction","authors":"Pin-Chun Huang","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13050","url":null,"abstract":"<p>TOPMODEL has been widely employed in hydrology research, undergoing continuous modifications to broaden its practical applicability and enhance its simulation accuracy. To encompass spatial discretization, diffusion-wave characteristics, depth-dependent flow velocity, and flux estimation in the unsaturated zone, a generalized dynamic TOPMODEL is developed by introducing a greater number of physical parameters. The present study aims to evaluate the optimal combination of these parameters within the dynamic TOPMODEL framework using machine learning techniques to improve the accuracy of runoff predictions and bolster the model's reliability. An innovative training method is suggested to elevate the model's performance by integrating the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm and a topological classification, which relies on the evolving spatial distribution of runoff conditions during floods. The research findings show that the proposed methodology achieves the lowest mean relative error (MRE) at 0.106, the highest Pearson correlation coefficient (PC) at 0.938, and the highest coefficient of determination (<i>R</i><sup><i>2</i></sup>) at 0.906 among the three dynamic TOPMODEL types adopted in this study. The effective implementation of a case study in a river basin showcases the feasibility of the proposed method in conjunction with dynamic TOPMODEL and underscores the importance of employing the suggested training procedure.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13050","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparison of three different satellite data on 2D flood modeling using HEC-RAS (5.0.7) software and investigating the improvement ability of the RAS Mapper tool 利用HEC-RAS(5.0.7)软件对三种不同卫星数据进行二维洪水建模的比较,并探讨RAS Mapper工具的改进能力
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13046
Yunus Ziya Kaya, Fatih Üneş
{"title":"Comparison of three different satellite data on 2D flood modeling using HEC-RAS (5.0.7) software and investigating the improvement ability of the RAS Mapper tool","authors":"Yunus Ziya Kaya,&nbsp;Fatih Üneş","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13046","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flood modeling is essential to determine and protect vulnerable areas. However, due to complexity of flooding, it is challenging to model floods with a high level of sensitivity. While many factors affect flood models' accuracy, topography is among the most critical. With developing technologies, designing high-accuracy topographical data is becoming more feasible, especially for small catchments. In this study, the authors focus on macro-scale modeling using different types of satellite data across the Amik Plain; a large plain with a complex stream network. SRTM, Aster, and Alos Palsar satellite data were used to create digital terrain models (DTMs). The pre-evaluation of the results showed that even the main streams in the Amik Plain were not visible. So, the geometry of the streams was created and added to the digital elevation models using the HEC-RAS software RAS Mapper tool. A flood in 2012 was simulated using all three improved DTMs. As a result, it is seen that an enhanced version of the DTM created from SRTM data provides the best performance for use in macro-scale flood modeling. The usage of the RAS Mapper tool as a GIS tool also performed well in the case of DTM improvements. The DTM improvements on the satellite data for the large plains can give a fairly reasonable output instead of using high-cost sensitive data.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13046","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142859988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessment of future risk of agricultural crop production under climate and social changes scenarios: A case of the Solo River basin in Indonesia 气候和社会变化情景下农作物生产的未来风险评估:以印度尼西亚索罗河流域为例
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-11-28 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13052
Badri Bhakta Shrestha, Mohamed Rasmy, Tomoki Ushiyama, Ralph Allen Acierto, Takatoshi Kawamoto, Masakazu Fujikane, Takafumi Shinya, Keijiro Kubota
{"title":"Assessment of future risk of agricultural crop production under climate and social changes scenarios: A case of the Solo River basin in Indonesia","authors":"Badri Bhakta Shrestha,&nbsp;Mohamed Rasmy,&nbsp;Tomoki Ushiyama,&nbsp;Ralph Allen Acierto,&nbsp;Takatoshi Kawamoto,&nbsp;Masakazu Fujikane,&nbsp;Takafumi Shinya,&nbsp;Keijiro Kubota","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13052","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding the impacts of climate change and conversion of paddy field areas in the future on agricultural production is an essential part of flood-risk management. However, the quantitative impact of flood on agricultural crops in the far-future under climate change, considering prospective changes in paddy area, is still not clearly understandable. This study thus focused on quantitative analysis of flood impact on rice crops under climate change using MRI-AGCM climate model outputs for the past (1979–2002) and far-future (2075–2098) periods for the Solo River basin in Indonesia. We developed a quantitative damage assessment method by coupling water and energy budget-based rainfall-runoff-inundation model outputs and a depth-duration-damage flood loss model. We also analyzed land-use and land cover changes to project future paddy areas. The future rice production in the study basin may decrease by 21% by 2048 and by 24.6% by 2076 compared with that in 2020, due to the conversion of paddy fields to other land cover classes. The average annual flood damage value of rice crops may increase in the future period (2075–2098) by 93.7% (average damage: 666.08 billion IDR) compared with that in the past period (1979–2002) (average damage: 343.7 billion IDR), due to climate change impacts alone.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13052","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142748962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A GIS-based tool for dynamic assessment of community susceptibility to flash flooding 基于地理信息系统的社区易受山洪影响程度动态评估工具
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13049
R. S. Wilkho, N. G. Gharaibeh, S. Chang
{"title":"A GIS-based tool for dynamic assessment of community susceptibility to flash flooding","authors":"R. S. Wilkho,&nbsp;N. G. Gharaibeh,&nbsp;S. Chang","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13049","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flash floods (FFs) are a leading cause of natural hazard-related fatalities in the US, posing unique challenges due to their localized impact and rapid onset. Traditional FF susceptibility assessments often fail to account for regional variations. Addressing this, we introduce Dynamic Flash Flood Susceptibility (DFFS), a GIS-based solution designed for dynamic, region-specific FF assessment. DFFS operates through four key steps: extracting FF data from the NOAA Storm Events Database for census tracts (CTs) in any region of interest, conducting spatial hotspot analysis to identify areas of high and low FF occurrences, applying causal discovery to identify region-specific causal factors (from potential factors such as geology, terrain, and meteorology), and using machine learning to calculate susceptibility scores, resulting in a detailed FF susceptibility map. Our case studies in three Texas regions—Dallas-Fort Worth, Greater Austin, and Greater Houston—revealed distinct causal relationships, with factors like storm duration consistently influential across all regions, while others, such as population density specific to Greater Austin. Furthermore, DFFS demonstrated high accuracy (0.87, 0.86, 0.94) and F1-scores (0.88, 0.86, 0.96) in computing community susceptibility scores for these regions. We demonstrate DFFS's tangible value in FF risk management and policy-making, providing a data-driven and generalizable tool for FF assessment.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13049","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142737514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Advancing flood susceptibility prediction: A comparative assessment and scalability analysis of machine learning algorithms via artificial intelligence in high-risk regions of Pakistan 推进洪水易感性预测:在巴基斯坦高风险地区通过人工智能对机器学习算法进行比较评估和可扩展性分析
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-11-24 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13047
Mirza Waleed, Muhammad Sajjad
{"title":"Advancing flood susceptibility prediction: A comparative assessment and scalability analysis of machine learning algorithms via artificial intelligence in high-risk regions of Pakistan","authors":"Mirza Waleed,&nbsp;Muhammad Sajjad","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13047","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flood susceptibility mapping (FSM) is crucial for effective flood risk management, particularly in flood-prone regions like Pakistan. This study addresses the need for accurate and scalable FSM by systematically evaluating the performance of 14 machine learning (ML) models in high-risk areas of Pakistan. The novelty lies in the comprehensive comparison of these models and the use of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques. We employed XAI to identify significant conditioning factors for flood susceptibility at both the model training and prediction stages. The models were assessed for both accuracy and scalability, with specific focus on computational efficiency. Our findings indicate that LGBM and XGBoost are the top performers in terms of accuracy, with XGBoost also excelling in scalability, achieving a prediction time of ~18 s compared to LGBM's 22 s and random forest's 31 s. The evaluation framework presented is applicable to other flood-prone regions and highlights that LGBM is superior for accuracy-focused applications, while XGBoost is optimal for scenarios with computational constraints. The findings of this study can assist in accurate FSM in different regions and can also assist in scaling up the analysis to a larger geographical region which could assist in better decision-making and informed policy production for flood risk management.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13047","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142708269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Flood fragility and vulnerability functions for residential buildings in the Province of Leyte, Philippines 菲律宾莱特省住宅建筑的洪水脆弱性和脆弱性功能
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13043
Isaac Besarra, Aaron Opdyke, Diocel Harold Aquino, Joy Santiago, Jerico E. Mendoza, Alfredo Mahar Francisco A. Lagmay
{"title":"Flood fragility and vulnerability functions for residential buildings in the Province of Leyte, Philippines","authors":"Isaac Besarra,&nbsp;Aaron Opdyke,&nbsp;Diocel Harold Aquino,&nbsp;Joy Santiago,&nbsp;Jerico E. Mendoza,&nbsp;Alfredo Mahar Francisco A. Lagmay","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13043","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Philippines experiences frequent flooding, but, despite expansive tools for risk reduction, there remain gaps in understanding generalised relationships between flood events and damage to residential structures for regions outside the nation's capital. This gap has limited the ability to model flood risk and damage without robust functions to link hazards and housing vulnerability. This research draws on 394 household surveys to empirically derive a suite of flood fragility and vulnerability functions for residential structures in the Province of Leyte for light material, elevated light material and masonry structures. The results showed that masonry construction was more resilient to floods compared to light material counterparts. Elevated light material structures also exhibited lower damages at low inundations but tend to fail abruptly at flood depths greater than 3 m. By empirically deriving flood damage functions, the findings contribute to a more localised approach to quantifying housing vulnerability and risk that can be used for catastrophe and risk modelling, with applications for government agencies, the insurance industry and disaster risk researchers. This research lays the foundation for future flood risk mapping with growing significance under climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13043","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143114401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Intersecting crises: A comparative analysis of global conflicts and the risk of flooding 相互交织的危机:全球冲突与洪水风险的比较分析
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.13041
Chrissy Mitchell
{"title":"Intersecting crises: A comparative analysis of global conflicts and the risk of flooding","authors":"Chrissy Mitchell","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13041","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Conflict levels are increasing globally. The last decade has seen an increase in violence (UDCP, &lt;span&gt;2024&lt;/span&gt;), the highest level globally since World War two. Warfare continues to divide opinions and skew statistics, making it challenging to quantitatively review its impact in relation to flooding. This editorial does not look to question any one nation, political position, or approach. The focus is on the impact to those at risk of flooding in conflict zones and what research might do to support these areas.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The global peace index (GPI) is the preeminent global measure of peacefulness, produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace annually (IEP, &lt;span&gt;2024&lt;/span&gt;). It ranks 163 independent states and territories, covering 99.7% of the world's population, using a scale of 1–5 across 23 weighted indicators (1 being at most peace, 5 at most conflict). In July 2024 the report outlined that the average level of peacefulness deteriorated and is in fact the 12th year of deterioration across the last 16 years.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The cost of conflict far outweighs the economic activity on flood risk management. For the year 2023, the economic impact of violence on the global economy was estimated at $19.1 trillion (USD), which equates to 13.5% of the world's economic activity, or $2380 per person. In recent years, the global annual damage costs from flooding have been estimated at ~$100 billion (EM-DAT, CRED/UCLouvain, &lt;span&gt;2024&lt;/span&gt;), which equates to $12.40 per person. Notably, a recent report forecasted that water risk (caused by droughts, floods, and storms) could consume $5.6 trillion of global GDP by 2050, with floods projected to account for 36% of these direct losses (GHD, &lt;span&gt;2024&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Some of the most affected countries that experience the dual challenges of flooding and conflict are in Asia and Africa. War torn Yemen (GPI 3.397, the highest scored of all nations in 2023) suffers periodic flooding on top of vulnerable living conditions. Pakistan (GPI 2.783) has 31% of its population (72 million people) experiencing extreme flooding linked to monsoons, alongside internal conflict. In Africa, Somalia (GPI 3.091), Ethiopia (Tigray) (GPI 2.845), Nigeria(GPI 2.907), and South Sudan (GPI 3.327) both the severe flooding and conflict have led to significant displacement and humanitarian crisis (Oxfam, &lt;span&gt;2024&lt;/span&gt;; Sadoff et al., &lt;span&gt;2017&lt;/span&gt;). Rentschler et al. (&lt;span&gt;2022&lt;/span&gt;) study, estimated 1.81 billion people, or 23% of the world population, being directly exposed to inundation depths of over 0.15 m during 1-in-100-year floods, which would pose a significant risk to lives, especially to vulnerable population groups. The report highlighted significant locations such as South and East Asia, which accounted for the majority of flood-exposed people (1.24 billion). These areas also link with not insignificant conflict. China (395 million) (GPI 2.101) and India (390 million) (GPI 2.319) accounted for over one-third of ","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"17 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13041","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142641509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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