Assessment of future risk of agricultural crop production under climate and social changes scenarios: A case of the Solo River basin in Indonesia

Abstract

Understanding the impacts of climate change and conversion of paddy field areas in the future on agricultural production is an essential part of flood-risk management. However, the quantitative impact of flood on agricultural crops in the far-future under climate change, considering prospective changes in paddy area, is still not clearly understandable. This study thus focused on quantitative analysis of flood impact on rice crops under climate change using MRI-AGCM climate model outputs for the past (1979–2002) and far-future (2075–2098) periods for the Solo River basin in Indonesia. We developed a quantitative damage assessment method by coupling water and energy budget-based rainfall-runoff-inundation model outputs and a depth-duration-damage flood loss model. We also analyzed land-use and land cover changes to project future paddy areas. The future rice production in the study basin may decrease by 21% by 2048 and by 24.6% by 2076 compared with that in 2020, due to the conversion of paddy fields to other land cover classes. The average annual flood damage value of rice crops may increase in the future period (2075–2098) by 93.7% (average damage: 666.08 billion IDR) compared with that in the past period (1979–2002) (average damage: 343.7 billion IDR), due to climate change impacts alone.