Intersecting crises: A comparative analysis of global conflicts and the risk of flooding

Conflict levels are increasing globally. The last decade has seen an increase in violence (UDCP, 2024), the highest level globally since World War two. Warfare continues to divide opinions and skew statistics, making it challenging to quantitatively review its impact in relation to flooding. This editorial does not look to question any one nation, political position, or approach. The focus is on the impact to those at risk of flooding in conflict zones and what research might do to support these areas.

The global peace index (GPI) is the preeminent global measure of peacefulness, produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace annually (IEP, 2024). It ranks 163 independent states and territories, covering 99.7% of the world's population, using a scale of 1–5 across 23 weighted indicators (1 being at most peace, 5 at most conflict). In July 2024 the report outlined that the average level of peacefulness deteriorated and is in fact the 12th year of deterioration across the last 16 years.

The cost of conflict far outweighs the economic activity on flood risk management. For the year 2023, the economic impact of violence on the global economy was estimated at $19.1 trillion (USD), which equates to 13.5% of the world's economic activity, or $2380 per person. In recent years, the global annual damage costs from flooding have been estimated at ~$100 billion (EM-DAT, CRED/UCLouvain, 2024), which equates to $12.40 per person. Notably, a recent report forecasted that water risk (caused by droughts, floods, and storms) could consume $5.6 trillion of global GDP by 2050, with floods projected to account for 36% of these direct losses (GHD, 2024).

Some of the most affected countries that experience the dual challenges of flooding and conflict are in Asia and Africa. War torn Yemen (GPI 3.397, the highest scored of all nations in 2023) suffers periodic flooding on top of vulnerable living conditions. Pakistan (GPI 2.783) has 31% of its population (72 million people) experiencing extreme flooding linked to monsoons, alongside internal conflict. In Africa, Somalia (GPI 3.091), Ethiopia (Tigray) (GPI 2.845), Nigeria(GPI 2.907), and South Sudan (GPI 3.327) both the severe flooding and conflict have led to significant displacement and humanitarian crisis (Oxfam, 2024; Sadoff et al., 2017). Rentschler et al. (2022) study, estimated 1.81 billion people, or 23% of the world population, being directly exposed to inundation depths of over 0.15 m during 1-in-100-year floods, which would pose a significant risk to lives, especially to vulnerable population groups. The report highlighted significant locations such as South and East Asia, which accounted for the majority of flood-exposed people (1.24 billion). These areas also link with not insignificant conflict. China (395 million) (GPI 2.101) and India (390 million) (GPI 2.319) accounted for over one-third of people globally exposed to flood risk.

Research has an important role to play in providing a foundation for flood risk management in war-torn countries. Improving infrastructure resilience to withstand both conflicts and natural disasters is fundamental. Damage to dams, levees, and drainage systems can reduce the ability to manage water flow and increase the risk of flooding. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine in 2023 is an example of the conflict-driven need for robust water management system planning.

A comprehensive understanding of post-disaster assessment needs is crucial for effective recovery. Pakistan's response to its 2022 floods included a detailed post-disaster needs assessment, which was effective in prioritizing rebuilding efforts. Tools and advice to support and provide long term recovery plans that help focus on rebuilding communities, repair to infrastructure and providing social, economic and health support, are essential for sustainable recovery in conflict zones. War can force large numbers of people to move, often to areas that are not equipped to handle sudden population increases. This can lead to the overuse of local resources and inadequate flood management.

Access to clean water is critical, with evidence already available to suggest that a lack of clean water can be more deadly than violence itself in war-torn areas (United Nations, 2024). Secure water sources and effective flood management, including that of drainage and sanitation, is important.

Military expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) continues to rise, which can lead to nations having to reprioritize environmental funding. Military activities themselves can result in environmental degradation; directly releasing greenhouse gases and exacerbating climate change, resulting in deforestation, and soil erosion linked to flooding. On the whole, conflict zones also tend to be challenging to provide regular maintenance of water management infrastructure. Knowing how to prepare and provide maintenance safely (such as providing safe access in minefield locations), or mitigate the need for maintenance, reduces the potential risk to life.

Military-led research and development has resulted in a rapid increase in new technologies, which has been of growing support to the flood community. Robust and credible satellite imagery and the use of drones are becoming more readily available and provide a wealth of information for analysis. Weather and climate forecasting has grown in sophistication in both techniques and capacity to manipulate and store data, in many cases also stimulated from military requirements to operate.

International humanitarian aid, emergency response, and infrastructure development organizations are vital in providing a joint role to providing aid for those affected by flooding in regions of conflict. Evidence is sought to support capacity building and training, to help suitable disaster preparedness to be well placed, as well as to persuade and underpin policymakers decisions.

It is extremely hard for any nation to place climate adaptation strategies above national security and conflict, but the changing climate and its resulting extreme weather events is a global issue that can potentially destabilize regions and lead to even further conflict. It is encouraging to see so many nations in the Journal of Flood Risk Management represented, sharing valuable case studies and advice for the good of international best practices. Ultimately providing extremely important evidence and advances in development to help mitigate flood impact and support recovery, especially in areas suffering from both flooding and conflict.