Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Climate Implications of Hydrogen Deployment Considering Changes in Emissions From Direct and Indirect Forcers","authors":"Patrick O’Rourke,&nbsp;Bryan K. Mignone,&nbsp;Matthew Binsted,&nbsp;Bryan R. Chapman,&nbsp;Olivia E. Clifton,&nbsp;Kalyn Dorheim,&nbsp;Page Kyle,&nbsp;Steven J. Smith","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007025","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF007025","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hydrogen could help to decarbonize hard-to-electrify end uses in future energy systems. While increased hydrogen production, transmission, distribution, and use may lead to an increase in hydrogen emissions, both greenhouse gas (GHG) and non-GHG emissions could decline as hydrogen displaces incumbent fuels and energy carriers. The full suite of potential climate forcing changes from hydrogen deployment has not been fully examined, in part because it requires combining information from different fields. This study addresses this gap by using a well-known integrated assessment model (the Global Change Analysis Model) to combine (1) credible hydrogen deployment scenarios that illustrate which fuels and energy carriers could be displaced by hydrogen; (2) information about emissions of hydrogen and other forcers by technology, sector, region, and time; and (3) a simple climate model capable of translating relevant emissions into changes in radiative forcing. Across all scenarios considered, when compared to a scenario without expanded hydrogen deployment, reduced forcing from lower CO₂ emissions is larger than other forcing changes by 2050 even after accounting for hydrogen and other indirect forcers. Forcing attributable to methane emissions may increase or decrease depending on how much hydrogen is produced with natural gas and how much natural gas is displaced as a fuel. Lastly, the net forcing change from changes in emissions of the indirect forcers CO, NOx, NMVOC, and H₂, including their impact on methane's lifetime, is always small and in most cases negative at midcentury. These findings raise important questions for technology assessment regarding the treatment of indirect forcers and aerosols.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007025","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147288448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ecological Feedbacks in the Earth System","authors":"Eugene J. Murphy,&nbsp;Jessica J. Williams,&nbsp;Isla H. Myers-Smith,&nbsp;Vivienne P. Groner,&nbsp;David M. P. Jacoby,&nbsp;Lester Kwiatkowski,&nbsp;Jess Melbourne-Thomas,&nbsp;Emma Ransome,&nbsp;Cristina Banks-Leite,&nbsp;Laurent Bopp,&nbsp;Marion Gehlen,&nbsp;Eileen E. Hofmann,&nbsp;Babette Hoogakker,&nbsp;Nadine M. Johnston,&nbsp;Yadvinder Malhi,&nbsp;Emma L. Cavan","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006478","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006478","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ecological feedbacks are fundamental features of the Earth system, affecting physical processes and chemical cycles. Our understanding of the interactions underlying these feedbacks at different spatial and temporal scales and the extent to which feedbacks affect Earth system functioning remains limited. Climate change and other anthropogenic pressures are already negatively affecting ecological processes in marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems. These will most likely be amplified in the coming decades under our current warming and socioeconomic pathways. The knock-on impacts on ecological feedbacks have the potential to cause rapid perturbations to the Earth system, and may significantly impact the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Yet, the role of our planet's diverse ecological feedbacks in Earth system processes and the impacts of perturbations are major knowledge gaps. Here we review and synthesize current understanding of ecological feedbacks and how they affect physical and chemical processes. We then consider the implications of ecological feedbacks for analyses of anthropogenically-driven change, development of scientific understanding and models, and provision of scientific advice for policymakers. Finally, we identify three priority future research areas for the rapid assessment and integration of ecological feedbacks in Earth system science: (a) including ecological feedbacks in assessments of global change and Earth system models, (b) incorporating ecological feedbacks across scales, and (c) producing projections suitable for policy advice. Overall, this review presents an urgent call to the scientific community for the rapid development of understanding of ecological feedbacks and integrated ecosystem—Earth system research.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006478","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147315600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ecological Feedbacks in the Earth System","authors":"Eugene J. Murphy,&nbsp;Jessica J. Williams,&nbsp;Isla H. Myers-Smith,&nbsp;Vivienne P. Groner,&nbsp;David M. P. Jacoby,&nbsp;Lester Kwiatkowski,&nbsp;Jess Melbourne-Thomas,&nbsp;Emma Ransome,&nbsp;Cristina Banks-Leite,&nbsp;Laurent Bopp,&nbsp;Marion Gehlen,&nbsp;Eileen E. Hofmann,&nbsp;Babette Hoogakker,&nbsp;Nadine M. Johnston,&nbsp;Yadvinder Malhi,&nbsp;Emma L. Cavan","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006478","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ecological feedbacks are fundamental features of the Earth system, affecting physical processes and chemical cycles. Our understanding of the interactions underlying these feedbacks at different spatial and temporal scales and the extent to which feedbacks affect Earth system functioning remains limited. Climate change and other anthropogenic pressures are already negatively affecting ecological processes in marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems. These will most likely be amplified in the coming decades under our current warming and socioeconomic pathways. The knock-on impacts on ecological feedbacks have the potential to cause rapid perturbations to the Earth system, and may significantly impact the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Yet, the role of our planet's diverse ecological feedbacks in Earth system processes and the impacts of perturbations are major knowledge gaps. Here we review and synthesize current understanding of ecological feedbacks and how they affect physical and chemical processes. We then consider the implications of ecological feedbacks for analyses of anthropogenically-driven change, development of scientific understanding and models, and provision of scientific advice for policymakers. Finally, we identify three priority future research areas for the rapid assessment and integration of ecological feedbacks in Earth system science: (a) including ecological feedbacks in assessments of global change and Earth system models, (b) incorporating ecological feedbacks across scales, and (c) producing projections suitable for policy advice. Overall, this review presents an urgent call to the scientific community for the rapid development of understanding of ecological feedbacks and integrated ecosystem—Earth system research.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006478","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147315601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decoding the Temporal Effects of Climate Change on Crop Phenology: Cumulative and Lagged Impacts in China's Major Corn Zones (1990–2020)","authors":"Tianyu Yang,&nbsp;Yonglin Shen,&nbsp;Ruotong Miao,&nbsp;Jie Wang,&nbsp;Nengcheng Chen","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006965","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006965","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding how climatic change affects crop phenology is essential for climate adaptation and food security. However, past studies have not effectively separated the influences of anthropogenic management practices (AMP) from climate factors, leaving the actual temporal effects of climate change on crop phenology unclear. This study developed a novel framework that isolates AMP interference and quantifies real temporal effects to address this critical challenge. Focusing on China's major corn zones during 1990–2020, we applied the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter to separate AMP influences and employed gray correlation analysis to quantify both cumulative and lagged temporal effects on two key phenological stages (the three-leaf stage and maturity) of corn. Our results demonstrate that the HP filter effectively isolates AMP effects, revealing that raw data underestimate climate impacts by 25 ± 10%. AMP modulates temporal responses by extending cumulative time by 3–29 days while reducing lagged time by 2–11 days. Lagged effects dominating by 0.06 ± 0.02 compared to cumulative effects nationwide. Spatial analysis further uncovers significant heterogeneity: in the arid northwest, lagged time to temperature and solar radiation exceed cumulative time by 12–18 days, whereas in the northern plains, cumulative time prevails. Notably, the “Qinling-Huaihe Line” emerges as a key demarcation, with northern zones exhibiting longer cumulative and shorter lagged time relative to the south. These findings advance our understanding of climate-induced phenological shifts and offer actionable insights for precision agriculture and global food security.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006965","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147288499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rapid Loss of Terrestrial Ecosystem Multifunctionality in China on a Century Scale","authors":"Wen He,&nbsp;Jian Sun,&nbsp;Baofeng Di,&nbsp;Josep Peñuelas","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007008","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ecosystem multifunctionality (EMF) is a crucial factor in protecting biodiversity and regulating climate dynamics. However, the global and regional dynamics of EMF are currently limited to field experiments, resulting in an incomplete understanding of the spatial patterns and driving mechanisms of EMF. We focused on biogeochemical cycles to quantify the spatiotemporal dynamics of EMF in China and determine the impact of environmental factors on EMF. Our findings indicate that climate and topography are the primary drivers of EMF. More importantly, over 66% of the study area is expected to experience a decline in EMF by the end of the twenty-first century across various future climate scenarios. Under high-emission scenarios in particular, EMF could be on an unsustainable trajectory, putting increased pressure on terrestrial ecosystems and exacerbating their degradation. These results highlight that more robust policies need to be designed to mitigate ecosystem degradation triggered by climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007008","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147299974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rapid Loss of Terrestrial Ecosystem Multifunctionality in China on a Century Scale","authors":"Wen He,&nbsp;Jian Sun,&nbsp;Baofeng Di,&nbsp;Josep Peñuelas","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007008","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF007008","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ecosystem multifunctionality (EMF) is a crucial factor in protecting biodiversity and regulating climate dynamics. However, the global and regional dynamics of EMF are currently limited to field experiments, resulting in an incomplete understanding of the spatial patterns and driving mechanisms of EMF. We focused on biogeochemical cycles to quantify the spatiotemporal dynamics of EMF in China and determine the impact of environmental factors on EMF. Our findings indicate that climate and topography are the primary drivers of EMF. More importantly, over 66% of the study area is expected to experience a decline in EMF by the end of the twenty-first century across various future climate scenarios. Under high-emission scenarios in particular, EMF could be on an unsustainable trajectory, putting increased pressure on terrestrial ecosystems and exacerbating their degradation. These results highlight that more robust policies need to be designed to mitigate ecosystem degradation triggered by climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007008","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147300032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-Term Snow Avalanche Trends in High Mountain Asia: Climatic Drivers and Impacts","authors":"Arnaud Caiserman,&nbsp;Roy C. Sidle,&nbsp;Jakob Steiner,&nbsp;Evgenii Shibkov","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006503","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006503","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Devastating snow avalanches are frequent in High Mountain Asia (HMA) yet remain undocumented with climate change impact drivers poorly understood. Here we introduce the first record of 60 million avalanche deposits across 10,701 small catchments, compiled from 33 years of Landsat data from 1990 until 2022 using a snow index. Potential damages from avalanches in areas at risk in HMA include nearly 20% of the buildings and up to 22% of the road network annually blocked by deposits temporarily disconnecting villages from food, energy, medicine, and communication infrastructures. Across 85% of HMA, no long-term trends of deposits were detected due to variable snow and temperature during winter. Nonetheless, in 15% of the 214 larger aggregated catchments comprising HMA, the number of deposits increased by 10 every year. Multivariate analysis among these increases of deposits and winter snow and temperature parameters from reanalysis data revealed that a few areas of western HMA experienced increases in snow water equivalent (5 mm in three decades) and air temperature (2°C) contributing to the increase of avalanche activity. There, a decrease in snowfall of 50 mm, with an increase of rainfall, contributed to the formation of weak and unstable snowpacks. Most deposit trends could not be explained by snow-temperature variables because of the complex and variable interactions between avalanches and climate. These results call for an adoption of mitigation measures in HMA to address avalanche impacts on infrastructure and human lives, especially in areas where avalanche occurrence may increase with time due to climate tendencies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006503","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147288343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On Unease and Discomfort About the Anthropocene","authors":"Ulrich Stange","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007489","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF007489","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The proposal for a formal inclusion of the Anthropocene as a new unit of the Geologic Time Scale (GTS) was rejected in part on the grounds that it would sit uncomfortably in the GTS. The durations of all GTS units tend to become shorter toward the present. The proposed Anthropocene epoch and Crawfordian age fit that trend comfortably. Unease about the connection of the definition of the Anthropocene with the detonation of nuclear weapons may be addressed by considering redefinition of the additionally proposed nominal precision enhancement of the stratigraphically determined date. Unease about the short duration of the emergent Anthropocene may be addressed by emphasizing the standard possibility of future reassessment and revision of chronostratigraphic units.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007489","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147299821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Herbivore Types as a Key Driver of Spatial Variations in Aboveground Biomass Trends in Alpine Grasslands","authors":"Yijia Wang,&nbsp;Yanxu Liu,&nbsp;Peng Chen,&nbsp;Zhiyun Jiang,&nbsp;Yingchun Fu,&nbsp;Jiaxi Song,&nbsp;Yu Han,&nbsp;Songjun Xu,&nbsp;Bojie Fu","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006956","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006956","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Managing grazing regimes is a key strategy for promoting the sustainable use of grasslands. The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, dominated by alpine grasslands, is subjected to extensive grazing by livestock. Apart from some control experiments, the regional impact of livestock species on alpine grassland has been overlooked, mostly due to the spatial mismatch between statistical livestock data and grassland biomass data. Using cross-scale feature extraction and random forest models, we developed a 1 km × 1 km gridded long-term grazing intensity data set distinguishing between herbivore types between cattle and sheep from 2000 to 2019. We used the propensity score matching method to identify the impact of grazing intensity and herbivore types on aboveground biomass on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The data set demonstrated strong spatio-temporal consistency with county-level statistics, with R² values above 0.9 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranging from 0.93 to 0.98. The interannual trends of sheep (mainly Tibetan sheep) and cattle (mainly yaks) were largely opposite, with a significant decline in the sheep-to-cattle ratio in 42% of areas. At high grazing intensity, the aboveground biomass increase rate was slower, and aboveground biomass decreased more rapidly with an increasing sheep-to-cattle ratio. These findings advance our understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of grazing intensity on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and provide new insights into how grazing intensity and herbivore composition jointly shape alpine grassland productivity at the landscape scale.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006956","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146224429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shifts in Evapotranspiration Components During Heatwaves Alter Surface Cooling","authors":"Han Chen,&nbsp;Stephen P. Good,&nbsp;Einara Zahn,&nbsp;Elie Bou-Zeid,&nbsp;Kelly K. Caylor,&nbsp;Richard P. Fiorella,&nbsp;Marja Haagsma,&nbsp;Lixin Wang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006562","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006562","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Heatwave events significantly alter ecosystem water and energy balance and are often accompanied by extreme surface temperatures. Understanding how surface temperatures during such events are regulated by soil evaporation (<i>E</i>) and vegetation transpiration (<i>T</i>) remains limited due to challenges in partitioning total evapotranspiration (<i>ET</i>). Here, high-frequency turbulence methods are used to partition observed <i>ET</i> at 32 National Ecological Observatory Network sites across the contiguous United States. Heatwaves were defined as at least three consecutive days with daily maximum air temperature exceeding the site-specific 90th percentile of the 2019–2021 record. Across 268 identified events, the <i>T/ET</i> ratio decreased by 32% ± 16% relative to the non-heatwave baseline of 0.65, with greater reductions at lower biomass sites. The <i>T/ET</i> ratio was typically suppressed below non-heatwave conditions during the early and middle stages of the heatwave (first two-thirds of event duration), but was on average higher than non-heatwave baseline levels during late stages (final third) due to extremely low soil evaporation. Of the studied heatwaves, 71% of these had surface temperatures above 38°C in their late stage; however, heatwaves sustaining higher evaporation fluxes (upper tertile of observed fluxes) during the late stage were associated with relative surface temperature anomalies that were on average 45% lower than those of heatwaves with lower evaporation fluxes (lower tertile). The commensurate surface cooling induced by higher transpiration was only 2% during heatwaves, suggesting that transpiration has a limited ability to mitigate extreme surface temperatures. This study allows for improved prediction of ecosystem feedbacks under extreme thermal stress.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006562","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146217110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}