Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Influence of Black Carbon on Photovoltaic and Wind Energy Potential Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways","authors":"Zhenming Ji,&nbsp;Guanying Chen","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004987","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004987","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With the ongoing growth in global demand for renewable energy, photovoltaic and wind energy play crucial roles in reducing carbon emissions and mitigating climate change. Meteorological factors such as surface solar radiation, temperature, and wind influence the photovoltaic potential (PV_POT) and wind energy potential (WEP). Black carbon aerosols (BC), with their strong capacity to absorb shortwave radiation, induce regional climate changes, underscore the non-negligible impact on PV_POT and WEP. This study utilizes the Community Earth System Model to project changes in PV_POT and WEP under shared socioeconomic pathways and their responses to BC. Results indicate that the model accurately delineated the spatial distribution and historical trends of five meteorological elements: wind speed, air temperature, surface solar radiation, surface pressure and surface specific humidity. In the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, both PV_POT and WEP exhibited remarkable regional and seasonal variations. In Western Europe, Canada, Tibetan Plateau, and most parts of eastern China, PV_POT is projected increase, while the induced BC enhances the increase in PV_POT on the Tibetan Plateau. Effects of BC on the annual trends of PV_POT vary across regions. Furthermore, the global average of both PV_POT and WEP is expected to increase, with BC strengthening the increase of PV_POT, but scenario differences exist in WEP. In the SSP245 scenario, BC will induce a global average PV_POT increase of 0.41 × 10⁻³ W/m² by 2100.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004987","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143629828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Application of Hollow Glass Microspheres in the Arctic Ocean Would Likely Lead to a Deceleration of Arctic Sea Ice Loss” - A Critique of the Paper by Webster and Warren (2022)","authors":"A. Strawa,&nbsp;S. Olinger,&nbsp;S. Zornetzer,&nbsp;D. Johnson,&nbsp;S. Bhattacharyya,&nbsp;D. Ivanova,&nbsp;L. Field","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004749","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004749","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Avoiding the worst effects of global warming requires a multipronged approach including decarbonizing as quickly as possible, adaptation, greenhouse gas removal, and climate intervention. Additional research is needed to ensure that climate intervention strategies will be safe, effective, and environmentally acceptable. The importance of the Arctic in influencing global climate has led investigators to propose various climate intervention strategies specific to the Arctic (Strawa et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orbis.2020.08.010). One approach, proposed by Field et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000820), is to distribute reflective hollow glass microspheres (HGM) on strategic areas of Arctic sea ice at strategic times to reduce ice melt, thereby slowing the Arctic ice-albedo feedback and interrupting further acceleration of ice melt. While research into this technique is still in its early stages, results show this approach can effectively slow melt of Arctic sea ice (Field et al., 2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000820; Johnson et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002883). On the other hand, a recent paper by Webster and Warren (2022, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022EF002815) claims that this technique would warm the Arctic and speed up ice loss. Webster and Warren (2022), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002815 largely ignore the promising results of field experiments conducted using hollow glass microspheres on pond ice (Field et al., 2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000820; Johnson et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002883) and instead present an analysis that hinges upon a very high absorptance value for HGM. In this commentary, we present new measurements of HGM and show that, when measurement uncertainty is accounted for, their model shows that deploying HGM as proposed by AIP can cool the Arctic and prolong Arctic sea ice.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004749","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143595409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Roles of Soil and Atmospheric Dryness on Terrestrial Vegetation Productivity in China - Which Dominates at What Thresholds","authors":"Tianzi Wang,&nbsp;Jingwen Zhang,&nbsp;Zejun Li,&nbsp;Kairong Lin,&nbsp;Wang Zhou,&nbsp;Genghong Wu,&nbsp;Ming Pan,&nbsp;Xiaohong Chen","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005469","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005469","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Low soil moisture (SM) and high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) can reduce vegetation productivity (gross primary productivity (GPP)) and weaken terrestrial carbon stock. However, the roles of SM and VPD on GPP vary widely in terms of (a) which one dominates the impact (dominance) and (b) the specific threshold values at which they are activated (thresholds). This study adopted the copula method to investigate the dominance and thresholds of SM and VPD on terrestrial vegetation productivity reduction (GPP reduction) across China from 1982 to 2018. The results indicate that SM predominantly drives the GPP reduction across 71% of China's vegetation zones, with the SM thresholds decreasing from the south to the north. Vapor pressure deficit dominated the GPP reduction primarily in the croplands with low VPD thresholds, such as the North China Plain and Northeast Plain. Moreover, the SM and VPD thresholds have significant difference across different ecosystems, with higher SM thresholds (activated under wetter soil conditions) in the forests and lower VPD thresholds (activated under more humid atmospheric conditions) in the croplands. Compared with the non-irrigated croplands, irrigation can significantly reduce SM thresholds and increase VPD thresholds by relieving water stress from soil and atmospheric dryness. The structural equation modeling further demonstrates the dominant influence of SM and VPD on GPP reduction. This study explicitly identified the spatial distribution of the dominance and thresholds of soil and atmospheric dryness across different ecosystems. It could enhance our understanding of terrestrial ecosystem sensitivity to drought and provide guidance for drought management in different ecosystems.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005469","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143595410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate-Driven Sea Level Rise Exacerbates Alaskan and Cascadian Tsunami Hazards in Southern California: Implications to Design Parameters","authors":"Ignacio Sepúlveda,&nbsp;Andrew Mosqueda","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005435","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005435","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tsunami hazards in Southern California are expected to be exacerbated by the climate change driven sea level rise (SLR). Two key questions are how relevant is this exacerbation and whether tsunami design parameters are significantly affected. We perform a non-stationary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (nPTHA) in the Southern California bays of San Pedro and San Diego, with consideration of tsunamis generated by earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutians (ASZ) and Cascadia subduction zones (CSZ). We evaluate the changes of the maximum considered tsunami (MCT) design parameter, defined as a tsunami intensity that is exceeded with a 2% probability in 50 years. MCT elevation maps in the bays are calculated incorporating tides and SLR by means of a surrogate model. MCT elevations at assessed sites in San Pedro Bay and San Diego yield 2 m. The nPTHA shows that tsunamis generated in the ASZ zone are more hazardous in Southern California than those from the CSZ when evaluating MCT intensities. A comparison of scenarios with and without SLR also shows an increase of the MCT elevations of more than a foot in San Pedro Bay and San Diego, demonstrating that SLR causes a relevant impact, comparable to the influence of tides. The effect of SLR increasing MCT values is also comparable to the sensitivity of nPTHA results to some common earthquake epistemic uncertainties, such as the slip marginal distribution. Future tsunami hazard maps shall incorporate SLR when exposure times are long, as well as the uncertainty of tsunamigenic earthquake properties.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005435","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Conceptualizing River Floodplains","authors":"Ellen Wohl","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005681","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Geologic, geomorphic, hydrologic, ecological, and biogeochemical conceptual models of river floodplains developed since the mid-20th century led to the current conceptualization of floodplains as integrative systems that store and transform diverse materials, provide a source of material that can be transported downstream, and function as ecosystems. Scientific recognition of floodplains as a critical component of river corridors is not, however, matched by societal perceptions and legal or regulatory frameworks, which typically treat the active channel and floodplain as separate entities. The development of an integrative scientific understanding of floodplains is reviewed here, along with five primary challenges to progress in understanding and managing floodplains. These challenges involve: integrating thinking, data collection, modeling, and prediction across disciplines in a manner that facilitates the work of practitioners and regulators; scaling across time and space; measuring and predicting feedbacks and nonlinear interactions; measuring and predicting resilience and resistance of floodplains and river corridors to natural and human-induced disturbances; and effectively communicating social and technical uncertainties in river management.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005681","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Controls of Ecohydrological Grassland Dynamics in Agrivoltaic Systems","authors":"Athanasios Paschalis,&nbsp;Sara Bonetti,&nbsp;Simone Fatichi","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005183","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Agrivoltaic systems are characterized by the co-existence of photovoltaic panels on agricultural land, allowing simultaneous solar energy and food production without need for further land. Agrivoltaic installations alter the local microclimatic conditions of the land surface, impacting the performance of the agricultural systems embedded in them. In this study we develop an ecohydrological modeling framework combining a module that simulates changes in micrometeorology due to photovoltaic panel installations with a state-of-the-art model that resolves land surface water, energy, and vegetation dynamics (i.e., the terrestrial biosphere model T&amp;C). We demonstrate that the modeling framework is capable of reproducing grassland dynamics across a broad range of climates and agrivoltaic architectures. With the use of the model we evaluated grassland performance across the Mediterranean for two most commonly used architectures, namely mixed mounted solar panels and rotating solar tracking panels. We found that C3 grassland yields can be significantly enhanced only in climates where annual potential evapotranspiration exceeds annual rainfall. Changes in grassland productivity were attributed primarily to changes in the light environment at the land surface, with changes in surface aerodynamic roughness and rainfall redistribution due to drainage on panels playing a smaller negative role of comparable magnitudes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005183","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing Assisted Natural Regeneration as a Cost-Efficient Mitigation for Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss in China","authors":"Ming-Li Qiu,&nbsp;Dian-Feng Liu,&nbsp;Yu-Xin Zhao,&nbsp;Zhao-Min Tong,&nbsp;Jian-Hua He,&nbsp;Marie-Josée Fortin,&nbsp;Jun-Long Huang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005257","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005257","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global deforestation results in climate change and biodiversity loss. Assisted natural regeneration (ANR) emerges as a promising approach to achieving global forest restoration targets, yet its potential and benefits for climate and biodiversity in China remain underexplored. Here, we assessed ANR potential across China and modeled spatial prioritization strategies targeting climate mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and cost savings, individually and in combination, as well as strategies considering spatial constraints from current forest restoration projects and fragmentation mitigation. From 1995 to 2015, 3.40 million hectares of land naturally regenerated into forests, with an additional 5.11 million hectares identified as potential regeneration areas, which could contribute to 12.41% of China's restoration goal in 2035. Spatial prioritization revealed limited overlap among the three single-objective ANR strategies, while a multi-objective optimization strategy emerged as the most effective solution to achieve synergies among goals. The top 30% of prioritized areas under the multi-objective strategy could sequester 46.54 gigatons of CO₂, reduce extinction risks of forest-dependent species by 40.64%, and lower implementation costs by 31.55% compared to monoculture tree plantations. Our findings highlight that strategic spatial prioritization of ANR could mitigate climate change and biodiversity loss in a cost-efficient manner and have the potential to reinforce current forest restoration projects.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005257","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inflated Negative Impacts of Temperature On Global Agricultural Yields Due To Ozone Omission","authors":"Xiang Liu,&nbsp;Haitong Zhe Sun,&nbsp;Haikun Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005072","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change and ozone pollution are critical factors affecting global agricultural productivity. Meanwhile, current studies tend to overestimate the negative effects of warming on crop yields due to the influence of neglecting ozone effects. Here, by combining various observations, statistical crop models, and Earth system model projections, we reveal that the omitting ozone effects leads to a significant inflation of the damaging impacts of warming on global agricultural yields. For example, comparing with previous model, our model shows that the mid-century global warming impacts can decline by 1.99% (95% CI: 1.79%–3.24%) and 2.53% (95% CI: 2.03%–5.27%) for maize and soybean, respectively. Our findings indicate that incorporating ozone in statistical models is crucial for accurately assessing agricultural yield responses to temperature as well as projecting future climate change impacts on yields. This study contributes to a more holistic understanding of the intricate interactions between climate change, air pollution, and global crop production.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005072","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143581682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contrasting Trends in Onset of Spring Green-Up Between Grasslands and Forests in China","authors":"Ying Hu,&nbsp;Bojie Fu,&nbsp;Katerina Michaelides,&nbsp;Martin G. De Kauwe,&nbsp;Jian Wang,&nbsp;Miaogen Shen,&nbsp;Wenmin Zhang,&nbsp;Yue Wang,&nbsp;Xiangming Xiao,&nbsp;Yuanwei Qin,&nbsp;Xiaoming Feng,&nbsp;Chaoyang Wu,&nbsp;Yongzhe Chen,&nbsp;Zhuangzhuang Wang,&nbsp;Lingfan Wan","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005379","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005379","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Spring vegetation phenology (green-up onset date, GUD) exhibits notable sensitivity to climate change, serving as a critical indicator of ecosystem dynamics. However, long-term changes and drivers of GUD remain unclear. Here we showed that satellite-derived GUD averaged over China forests and grasslands advanced by −1.3 ± 0.4 (mean ± SD) days decade⁻¹ during 1982–2022, but with contrasting trends between forests (−5.0 ± 0.6 days decade⁻¹) and grasslands (2.8 ± 0.6 days decade⁻¹), despite similarly increasing temperature and precipitation. Such contrasting trends were caused by different responses to higher preseason mean temperature and more total precipitation. Moreover, sensitivities of GUD to temperature and precipitation showed different patterns with respect to spatial gradient of background climate conditions between forests and grasslands. Our study elucidates different mechanisms behind forests and grasslands responding to climate change, which could help optimize land-management strategies and anticipate vegetation distribution under climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005379","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Meta-Analysis of Urban Non-Point Source Pollution From Road and Roof Runoff Across China","authors":"Yongxin Wang,&nbsp;Chunlin Li,&nbsp;Jianmin Qiao,&nbsp;Yuanman Hu,&nbsp;Qian Zhang,&nbsp;Jiabo Yin,&nbsp;Louise Slater","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005296","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005296","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Urban non-point source (NPS) pollution has become an important issue affecting water quality, but current research has focused mainly on local scales and has lacked systematic evaluations at large spatial scales. Here, a meta-analysis was conducted to explore the characteristics of runoff pollution indicators (TSS: total suspended solids, TN: total nitrogen, TP: total phosphorus, and COD: chemical oxygen demand) on the roads and roofs in 41 Chinese cities, and a boosted regression tree model was used to reveal the geographical differences in pollution levels and the contribution rates of their influencing factors. The results revealed that the average event mean concentrations (EMCs) of TSS (326 mg/L), TP (0.6 mg/L), and COD (160 mg/L) were significantly greater in road runoff than in roof runoff. Among them, the TSS concentrations were nearly four times greater than those in roof runoff, whereas the TP and COD concentrations were 3.2 and 2.3 times greater, respectively. Urban NPS pollution is severe in China, and the concentrations of runoff pollutants far exceed those in the USA, Germany, and France. There were significant geographical differences in urban NPS pollution due to the influences of air quality (35% relative contribution), climate conditions (15%), and human activities (45%). Prominent pollution from road runoff was observed in the Central region, more severe pollution from roof runoff was observed in the Northern region, and relatively light pollution was observed in the Southern and North-Eastern regions. This study provides the first synthesis of NPS road and roof runoff pollution levels in Chinese cities on a large spatial scale, resulting in scientific guidance for urban stormwater management and NPS pollution control.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005296","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143571271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}