Earths Future最新文献_第9页

Summer Monsoon Drying Accelerates India's Groundwater Depletion Under Climate Change 夏季季风干燥加速印度地下水在气候变化下的枯竭

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004516

Vimal Mishra, Swarup Dangar, Virendra M. Tiwari, Upmanu Lall, Yoshihide Wada

{"title":"Summer Monsoon Drying Accelerates India's Groundwater Depletion Under Climate Change","authors":"Vimal Mishra, Swarup Dangar, Virendra M. Tiwari, Upmanu Lall, Yoshihide Wada","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004516","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004516","url":null,"abstract":"Groundwater in north India remains a vital food and water security resource for more than one billion people. Both summer monsoon drying, and winter warming pose considerable challenges for rapidly declining groundwater. However, their impacts on irrigation water demands and groundwater storage under the observed and projected future climate remain unexplored. Using in situ observations, satellite data, and a hydrological model that considers the role of irrigation and groundwater pumping, we show that summer monsoon drying and winter warming accelerate groundwater depletion in north India during the observed climate, which will continue in the projected future climate. Summer monsoon precipitation has significantly (P-value = 0.04) declined (∼8%) while winters have become warmer in north India during 1951–2021. Both satellite (GRACE/GRACE-FO) and hydrological model-based estimates show a rapid groundwater depletion (∼1.5 cm/year) in north India with a net loss of 450 km3 of groundwater during 2002–2021. The summer monsoon drying followed by winter warming cause a substantial reduction in groundwater storage due to reduced groundwater recharge and enhanced pumping to meet irrigation demands. Summer monsoon drying and winter warming will continue to affect groundwater storage in north India in the future. For instance, summer monsoon drying (10%–15% deficit for near-far periods) followed by substantial winter warming (1–4°C) in the future will further accelerate groundwater depletion by increasing (6%–20%) irrigation water demands and reducing groundwater recharge (6%–12%). Groundwater sustainability measures including reducing groundwater abstraction and enhancing the groundwater recharge during the summer monsoon seasons are needed to ensure future agricultural production.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004516","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141966805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Understanding Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Salinization of Low-Lying Coastal Groundwater Systems 了解气候变化和人类活动对低洼沿海地下水系统盐碱化的影响

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-08-03 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004737

Stephan L. Seibert, Janek Greskowiak, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, Gudrun Massmann

{"title":"Understanding Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Salinization of Low-Lying Coastal Groundwater Systems","authors":"Stephan L. Seibert, Janek Greskowiak, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, Gudrun Massmann","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004737","url":null,"abstract":"Fresh coastal groundwater is a valuable water resource of global significance, but its quality is threatened by saltwater intrusion. Excessive groundwater abstraction, sea-level rise (SLR), land subsidence and other climate-related factors are expected to accelerate this process in the future. The objective of this study is to (a) quantify the impact of projected climate change and (b) explore the role of individual hydrogeological boundaries on groundwater salinization of low-lying coastal groundwater systems until 2100 CE. We employ numerical density-dependent groundwater flow and salt transport modeling for this purpose, using Northwestern Germany as a case. Separate model variants are constructed and forced with climate data, that is, projected SLR and groundwater recharge, as well as likely ranges of other hydrogeological boundaries, including land subsidence, abstraction rates and drain levels. We find that autonomous salinization in the marsh areas, resulting from non-equilibrium of the present-day groundwater salinity distribution with current boundary conditions, is responsible for >50% of the salinization increase until 2100 CE. Sea-level rise, land subsidence and drain levels are the other major factors controlling salinization. We further show that salinization of the water resources is a potential threat to coastal water users, including water suppliers and the agrarian sector, as well as coastal ecosystems. Regional-scale uplifting of drain levels is identified as an efficient measure to mitigate salinization of deep and shallow groundwater in the future. The presented modeling approach highlights the consequences of climate change and anthropogenic impacts for coastal salinization, supporting the timely development of mitigation strategies.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004737","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141967067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Anomalous Water Vapor Circulation in an Extreme Drought Event of the Mid-Reaches of the Lancang-Mekong River Basin 澜沧江-湄公河流域中游特大干旱事件中的水汽环流异常现象

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004292

Guoqing Gong, Shuyu Zhang, Baoni Li, Yufan Chen, Penghan Chen, Kai Wang, Thian Yew Gan, Deliang Chen, Junguo Liu

{"title":"Anomalous Water Vapor Circulation in an Extreme Drought Event of the Mid-Reaches of the Lancang-Mekong River Basin","authors":"Guoqing Gong, Shuyu Zhang, Baoni Li, Yufan Chen, Penghan Chen, Kai Wang, Thian Yew Gan, Deliang Chen, Junguo Liu","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004292","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004292","url":null,"abstract":"The middle reaches of the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (M-LMRB) experienced a record-breaking drought event in 2019, resulting in significant economic losses of approximately 650 million dollars and affecting a population of 17 million. However, the anomalous circulation and transportation processes of water vapor, which may have played a crucial role in inducing the extreme drought, have not been fully studied. In this study, we analyze the water vapor circulation during the 2019 drought event using the land-atmosphere water balance and a backward trajectory model for moisture tracking. Our results indicate that the precipitation in the M-LMRB from May to October 2019 was only 71.9% of the long-term climatological mean (1959–2021). The low precipitation during this drought event can be attributed to less-than-normal external water vapor supply. Specifically, the backward trajectory model reveals a decrease in the amount of water vapor transported from the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and the Pacific Ocean, which are the main moisture sources for precipitation in the region. Comparing the atmospheric circulation patterns in 2019 with the climatology, we identify anomalous anticyclone conditions in the Bay of Bengal, anomalous westerlies in the Northeast Indian Ocean, and an anomalous cyclone in the Western Pacific Ocean, collectively facilitating a stronger export of water vapor from the region. Therefore, the dynamic processes played a more significant role than thermodynamic processes in contributing to the 2019 extreme drought event.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004292","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141966773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

2021 Heatwave Over Western North America: Structural Uncertainty and Internal Variability in GCM Projections of Humidex and Temperature Extremes 2021 年北美西部热浪：全球大气环流模型对湿度和极端温度预测的结构不确定性和内部变异性

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004541

Dae Il Jeong, Bin Yu, Alex J. Cannon

{"title":"2021 Heatwave Over Western North America: Structural Uncertainty and Internal Variability in GCM Projections of Humidex and Temperature Extremes","authors":"Dae Il Jeong, Bin Yu, Alex J. Cannon","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004541","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004541","url":null,"abstract":"The 2021 heatwave over Western North America (WNA) led to record-breaking air temperatures and human-perceived heat stress (humidex) values. The event was accompanied by drier conditions driven by prolonged atmospheric blocking. During the heatwave, the maximum 6-day means of humidex and temperature (HX-6 and TX-6) exhibited larger anomalies (6.70 and 5.57°C) compared to the 95th percentiles (HX95 and TX95) (4.12 and 3.73°C), relative to 1981–2021 extended summer (June-September) averages. Extreme indices of humidex show faster and larger increases than those of temperature, reflecting the nonlinear positive relationship between humidex and temperature. Future projections from a multi-model ensemble of 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) clearly show an increase in humidex and temperature extremes, especially under intermediate and high emissions scenarios. Humidex indices (HX-6 and HX95) show faster and larger increases than temperature indices (TX-6 and TX95) for the same future years and global warming levels. Controlling for differences in GCM climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing yields robust projections at various global warming levels, reducing the ranges of projected changes from the multi-model ensemble. At 3.0°C global warming from pre-industrial, the multi-model ensemble projects occurrences of HX-6, TX-6, HX95, and TX95 over WNA that exceed 2021 levels to occur every 3.9, 1.7, 1.4, and 2.2 years, respectively, increasing to almost annually at 4.0°C.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004541","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141966772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Robust Hydropower Planning Balances Energy Generation, Carbon Emissions and Sediment Connectivity in the Mekong River Basin 稳健的水电规划可平衡湄公河流域的发电量、碳排放量和泥沙连通性

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF003647

M. Tangi, R. Schmitt, R. Almeida, S. Bossi, A. Flecker, F. Sala, A. Castelletti

{"title":"Robust Hydropower Planning Balances Energy Generation, Carbon Emissions and Sediment Connectivity in the Mekong River Basin","authors":"M. Tangi, R. Schmitt, R. Almeida, S. Bossi, A. Flecker, F. Sala, A. Castelletti","doi":"10.1029/2023EF003647","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003647","url":null,"abstract":"We present a framework for strategic dam planning under uncertainty, which includes GHG emissions mitigation as a novel objective. We focus on the Mekong River Basin, a fast-developing region heavily relying on river-derived ecosystem services. We employ a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to identify strategic dam portfolios for different hydropower expansion targets, using process-related and statistical models to derive indicators of sediment supply disruption and GHG emissions. We introduce a robust optimization approach that explores variations in optimal portfolio compositions for more than 5,000 state-of-the-world configurations, regarding sediment origins and trapping and GHG emissions. Thus, we can rank dam projects' attractiveness based on their frequency of inclusion in optimal portfolios and explore how uncertainty affects these rankings. Our results suggest that developing dams in the upper Mekong would be a more robust option for near-term development than, for example, the lower Mekong and its tributaries, for both environmental and energy objectives. Our work presents a novel approach to better understand the basin-scale cumulative impacts of dam development in high-uncertainty, data-scarce contexts like the Mekong Basin.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF003647","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Response of a Terrestrial Polar Ecosystem to the March 2022 Antarctic Weather Anomaly 陆地极地生态系统对 2022 年 3 月南极天气异常现象的反应

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004306

J. E. Barrett, Byron J. Adams, Peter T. Doran, Hilary A. Dugan, Krista F. Myers, Mark R. Salvatore, Sarah N. Power, Meredith D. Snyder, Anna T. Wright, Michael N. Gooseff

{"title":"Response of a Terrestrial Polar Ecosystem to the March 2022 Antarctic Weather Anomaly","authors":"J. E. Barrett, Byron J. Adams, Peter T. Doran, Hilary A. Dugan, Krista F. Myers, Mark R. Salvatore, Sarah N. Power, Meredith D. Snyder, Anna T. Wright, Michael N. Gooseff","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004306","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004306","url":null,"abstract":"Record high temperatures were documented in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, on 18 March 2022, exceeding average temperatures for that day by nearly 30°C. Satellite imagery and stream gage measurements indicate that surface wetting coincided with this warming more than 2 months after peak summer thaw and likely exceeded thresholds for rehydration and activation of resident organisms that typically survive the cold and dry conditions of the polar fall in a freeze-dried state. This weather event is notable in both the timing and magnitude of the warming and wetting when temperatures exceeded 0°C at a time when biological communities and streams have typically entered a persistent frozen state. Such events may be a harbinger of future climate conditions characterized by warmer temperatures and greater thaw in this region of Antarctica, which could influence the distribution, activity, and abundance of sentinel taxa. Here we describe the ecosystem responses to this weather anomaly reporting on meteorological and hydrological measurements across the region and on later biological observations from Canada Stream, one of the most diverse and productive ecosystems within the McMurdo Dry Valleys.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004306","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enhanced Carbon Accumulation in China's New Coastal Wetlands Over the 21st Century 21 世纪中国沿海新湿地碳积累的加强

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004500

Xiaoyi Shen, Chang-Qing Ke, Yu Cai, Haili Li, Yao Xiao

{"title":"Enhanced Carbon Accumulation in China's New Coastal Wetlands Over the 21st Century","authors":"Xiaoyi Shen, Chang-Qing Ke, Yu Cai, Haili Li, Yao Xiao","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004500","url":null,"abstract":"Wetlands formed by natural sediment deposition account for a large proportion of new coastal lands, and these new wetlands usually have active ecosystems and obvious ecological effects. However, previous studies largely overlooked this sediment-caused wetland expansion, and the spatiotemporal variation in these wetlands and future response to sea-level rise (SLR) have not been determined. Here, we employed satellite observations to quantify the seaward expansion of coastal lands in China over the past two decades. A total land expansion of 6,651 km2 was found, and wetlands and artificial surfaces dominated, accounting for 32% and 25%, respectively. Subsequently, we utilized an integrated model to estimate the response of these new wetlands to SLR in the 21st century, that is, we estimated the wetland gain from sediment deposition and loss due to SLR. The results indicate that under the current condition of sediment availability, the area of China's new coastal wetlands is projected to increase by 200%–261% compared to that in 2020 based on four SLR scenarios, despite the unavoidable impact of SLR. These increases are accompanied by the continuous enhancement of carbon accumulation. Wetland changes are influenced by factors such as sediment deposition, SLR and storm surges, as well as the continued effect of local natural and anthropogenic factors. These results show the importance of understanding the ecological effects of new wetlands and constructing specific protection measures for sustainable development.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004500","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Challenges, Advances and Opportunities in Regional Sea Level Projections: The Role of Ocean-Shelf Dynamics 区域海平面预测的挑战、进展和机遇：洋架动力学的作用

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004886

Svetlana Jevrejeva, Francisco M. Calafat, Michela De Dominicis, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Jennifer V. Mecking, Jeff A. Polton, Bablu Sinha, Anthony Wise, Jason Holt

{"title":"Challenges, Advances and Opportunities in Regional Sea Level Projections: The Role of Ocean-Shelf Dynamics","authors":"Svetlana Jevrejeva, Francisco M. Calafat, Michela De Dominicis, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Jennifer V. Mecking, Jeff A. Polton, Bablu Sinha, Anthony Wise, Jason Holt","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004886","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004886","url":null,"abstract":"Future sea level rise and changes in extreme weather will increase the frequency of flooding and intensify the risks for the millions of people living in low-lying coastal areas. Concerns about coastal adaptation have been broadened due to societal awareness of the threat from rising seas, leading to a large set of potential adaptation users with diverse needs for adequate sea level projections in coastal areas beyond the current state of the art regional projections. In this paper, we provide an overview of the potential steps for improvement of regional sea level projections along the global coastline, with specific focus on the contribution from ocean dynamics to seasonal-decadal variability of coastal sea level, and its implications for changes in frequency and magnitude of extreme sea levels. We discuss the key gaps in our knowledge and predictive capability of these dynamics as they relate to sea level variability on seasonal to decadal timescales, and conclude by suggesting ways in which these knowledge gaps could be addressed.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004886","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatial Correlation Increase in Single-Sensor Satellite Data Reveals Loss of Amazon Rainforest Resilience 单传感器卫星数据的空间相关性增加揭示了亚马逊雨林复原力的丧失

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004040

Lana L. Blaschke, Da Nian, Sebastian Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Taylor Smith, Chris A. Boulton, Niklas Boers

{"title":"Spatial Correlation Increase in Single-Sensor Satellite Data Reveals Loss of Amazon Rainforest Resilience","authors":"Lana L. Blaschke, Da Nian, Sebastian Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Taylor Smith, Chris A. Boulton, Niklas Boers","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004040","url":null,"abstract":"The Amazon rainforest (ARF) is threatened by deforestation and climate change, which could trigger a regime shift to a savanna-like state. Whilst previous work has suggested that forest resilience has declined in recent decades, that work was based only on local resilience indicators, and moreover was potentially biased by the employed multi-sensor and optical satellite data and undetected anthropogenic land-use change. Here, we show that the average correlation between neighboring grid cells' vegetation time series, which is referred to as spatial correlation, provides a more robust resilience indicator than local estimations. We employ it to measure resilience changes in the ARF, based on single-sensor Vegetation Optical Depth data under conservative exclusion of human activity. Our results show an overall loss of resilience until around 2019, which is especially pronounced in the southwestern and northern Amazon for the time period from 2002 to 2011. The results from the reliable spatial correlation indicator suggest that in particular the southwest of the ARF has experienced pronounced resilience loss over the last two decades.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004040","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141967631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Variability and Its Impact on Oilseed Crop Yields in China 热带海洋表面温度变化及其对中国油料作物产量的影响

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004251

Yi Zhou, Tianyi Zhang, Xichen Li

{"title":"Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Variability and Its Impact on Oilseed Crop Yields in China","authors":"Yi Zhou, Tianyi Zhang, Xichen Li","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004251","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2023EF004251","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding how climate variability affects oilseed yields is crucial for ensuring a stable oil supply in regions such as China, where self-sufficiency in edible vegetable oils is low. Here, we found coherent patterns in the interannual variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and percent crop yield anomalies in the three ocean basins, and then quantified the contribution of these SST modes to oilseed crop yield anomalies. Our analysis revealed that, at the national level, the six tropical SST modes collectively accounted for 51% of soybean, 52% of rapeseed, and 33% of peanut yield anomalies in China. Tropical Indian Ocean variability exerts the greatest impact on soybean and peanut yield variability, whereas the most significant impact on rapeseed yield anomalies is attributed to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Finally, this study examined the specific ways in which changes in SST modes can affect oilseed crop yields using changes in local meteorological variables. Our findings revealed the relationship between tropical SST variability and oilseed crop yields, providing a detailed understanding of the diverse connections between SST modes and oilseed crop yield. This study deepens our knowledge of the influence of climate variability on agriculture, offering valuable insights for devising strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate variability on oilseed crop production in China.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004251","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141848562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0