Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"COVID-19 Fueled an Elevated Number of Human-Caused Ignitions in the Western United States During the 2020 Wildfire Season","authors":"Adam L. Jorge,&nbsp;John T. Abatzoglou,&nbsp;Erica Fleishman,&nbsp;Emily L. Williams,&nbsp;David E. Rupp,&nbsp;Jeffrey S. Jenkins,&nbsp;Mojtaba Sadegh,&nbsp;Crystal A. Kolden,&nbsp;Karen C. Short","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005744","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005744","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The area burned in the western United States during the 2020 fire season was the greatest in the modern era. Here we show that the number of human-caused fires in 2020 also was elevated, nearly 20% higher than the 1992–2019 average. Although anomalously dry conditions enabled ignitions to spread and contributed to record area burned, these conditions alone do not explain the surge in the number of human-caused ignitions. We argue that behavioral shifts aimed at curtailing the spread of COVID-19 altered human-environment interactions to favor increased ignitions. For example, the number of recreation-caused wildfires during summer was 36% greater than the 1992–2019 average; this increase was likely a function of increased outdoor recreational activity in response to social distancing measures. We hypothesize that the combination of anomalously dry conditions and COVID-19 social disruptions contributed to widespread increases in human-caused ignitions, adding complexity to fire management efforts during the 2020 western US fire season. Knowledge of how social behavior changes indirectly contributed to the increased number of ignitions in the 2020 wildfire season can help inform resource management in an increasingly flammable world.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005744","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143793401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Maximizing the Detectability of Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) While Minimizing Its Exposure Risks: Insights From a Numerical Study","authors":"Bin Wang,&nbsp;Arnaud Laurent,&nbsp;Qiantong Pei,&nbsp;Jinyu Sheng,&nbsp;Dariia Atamanchuk,&nbsp;Katja Fennel","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005463","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005463","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) can potentially remove gigatons of CO₂ from the atmosphere for durable storage in the ocean. Before implementing OAE at climate-relevant scales, questions about its safety and verifiability must be addressed. Operational deployment poses a dilemma between pursuing large detectability, essential for effective monitoring, reporting, and verification, and ensuring environmental safety and satisfying regulatory requirements. In this study, we present a computationally efficient approach, based on a high-resolution, coupled circulation-dissolution model of Halifax Harbor, to simulating the addition, transportation, dissolution, and sinking of various theoretical alkaline feedstocks for different dosages, seasons, and addition sites. Detectability and exposure risk of OAE are quantified and an approach for optimizing OAE deployment is demonstrated. Mean residence times (MRT) are calculated for different subregions and seasons. Results show that for a given amount of feedstock, summer is more favorable from the perspective of detectability but also creates higher exposure risks than other seasons because of a longer MRT. The exposure risk can be mitigated while maintaining large detectability by choosing optimal feedstocks with different characteristics for different seasons. The exposure risk can also be reduced by spreading alkalinity over multiple addition sites. The optimum allocation, where the largest detectability is sought without violating regulatory requirements, is specific to each season, dosage, and choice of feedstock. OAE deployments should be tailored taking into account local hydrography, season, dosage, and feedstock characteristics. Our approach provides a practical avenue for optimizing deployments.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005463","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future Wave Climate in the Mediterranean Sea and Associated Uncertainty From an Ensemble of 31 GCM-RCM Wave Simulations","authors":"Tim Toomey,&nbsp;Andrea Lira-Loarca,&nbsp;Marta Marcos,&nbsp;Giovanni Besio,&nbsp;Alejandro Orfila","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004992","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004992","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Storm-driven waves significantly increase coastal hazards, especially in densely populated and infrastructure-rich regions like the Mediterranean, which is a major global hub for tourism, cultural heritage, and shipping. Although the basin has a fetch-limited environment, extra-tropical cyclones can still produce high waves. With increasing global temperatures altering the climate system, wave climate changes are anticipated, albeit with varying reliability across modeled climate variables. This study investigates projected wave climate changes in the Mediterranean using an extensive ensemble of EURO-CORDEX GCM-RCMs wave simulations based on the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. We assess future shifts in wave climate statistics while incorporating model variability for comprehensive results. Consistent with previous studies, our results indicate an overall reduction in significant wave height <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mfenced>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>H</mi>\u0000 <mi>s</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mfenced>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $left({H}_{s}right)$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>, with reductions up to 0.45 m in autumn and winter, alongside significant shifts in wave direction. The future extreme wave climate changes were further evaluated by computing 100-year <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>H</mi>\u0000 <mi>s</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${H}_{s}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> return levels. Extreme event distributions from all simulations were bias-corrected and aggregated into a single coherent distribution for each period. Our findings reveal for the first time robust evidence of intensification of extreme waves toward the end of the century in several regions of the Mediterranean, with increases of 0.50–2 m in <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>H</mi>\u0000 <mi>s</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${H}_{s}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>. While focusing solely on a high-emission scenario limits the scope of these findings for mitigation strategies, this study underscores the need to analyze both full and extreme distributions in wave climate projections. Each may have distinct implications for coastal management policies and maritime operations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004992","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Small Ponds as Carbon Emission and Burial Hotspots in Lowland Agricultural Landscape","authors":"Yulai Ji,&nbsp;Jiacong Huang,&nbsp;Qing Zhu,&nbsp;Shuailong Feng,&nbsp;Shuai Zhang,&nbsp;Shaohua Lei,&nbsp;Qitao Xiao,&nbsp;Wenqing Shi,&nbsp;Junfeng Gao","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005441","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Clarifying carbon (C) cycling in small ponds is vital for understanding C transport in lowland agricultural landscape. Quantifying C flux is crucial for learning C cycling, but is challenging due to its complex cycling and significant impacts from intensive human activities. Here, we developed a process-based model (CDP) to achieve a daily estimation of C dynamics in agricultural ponds within lowland artificial watersheds (polders), and proposed a dual evaluation approach (concentration and flux) to assess the model's performance using two data sets obtained from eight typical polders in the Lake Taihu Basin. The developed model captured pond C dynamics, achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.44 ± 0.27. Our C flux estimations based on the newly-developed model showed large C emissions, primarily through carbon dioxide (CO₂) (497.5 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹), along with significant C burial (27.8 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹) with a hot moment in summer. Scenario simulations revealed the distinct impacts of pond C emissions and burial associated with the growth and death of phytoplankton and macrophytes. A 10% increase in macrophyte growth rates associated with a 1.8 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ increase in CO₂ emission, while a similar increase in phytoplankton growth rates related to a 12.2–16.2% increase in C burial. This study revealed a quick response of C flux to phytoplankton-macrophyte dominance, and highlighted the high potential of the process-based model for high-resolution (daily) quantification of C fluxes, thereby enhancing our understanding of C cycling in lowland agricultural ponds.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005441","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143762097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Antarctic Biosecurity Policy Effectively Manages the Rates of Alien Introductions","authors":"Rachel I. Leihy,&nbsp;Melodie A. McGeoch,&nbsp;David A. Clarke,&nbsp;Lou Peake,&nbsp;Yehezkel Buba,&nbsp;Jonathan Belmaker,&nbsp;Steven L. Chown","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005405","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Reducing the rates and impacts of biological invasions is a major policy goal of international biodiversity agreements. Yet the extent to which this goal is being achieved and the agreements hence successful in this respect remains unclear. Here we use a comprehensive record of alien species introduction in the terrestrial Antarctic, including its surrounding Southern Ocean Islands, spanning 115 years (1900–2015), to quantify the impact of biosecurity policy on alien species introduction rates in the region, where invasive alien species are a primary environmental conservation threat and management priority. We show that although many parts of the Antarctic have been colonized by non-indigenous taxa, recent rates of introduction appear to be slowing or static in most parts, compared with increases in the past. Our results vindicate the regional Antarctic focus on biosecurity measures, but also demonstrate the need for stricter enforcement due to rapid socio-environmental changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005405","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Grain for Green Program to Grassland Might Lead to Carbon Sink Leakage in the Loess Plateau","authors":"Y. Q. Ma,&nbsp;J. H. Li,&nbsp;W. Cao,&nbsp;L. Huang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005261","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005261","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Grain for Green Program (GFGP), China's most famous ecological program, has become the main driver of carbon sink increases. However, the potential of the carbon sink effect still lacks scenario-based systematic estimation. By backdating the GFGP carbon sink increase in the Loess Plateau (LP) over the past 20 years, we forecast and reveal the spatial distribution of the carbon sink and the contribution of the GFGP in the “Double Carbon Target” years under three scenarios. Our results showed that places restored to forests (GFGP-Forest) will always lead to a carbon sink increase by (33.62 Tg C for 2000–2020) 0.78–1.09 Tg C and 1.29–2.13 Tg C in 2030 and 2060, respectively. However, the places restored to grasslands (GFGP-Grassland) will lead to an increase for 2000–2020 (72.52 Tg C), but a decrease in 2030 and 2060 (0.89–9.95 Tg C and 7.42–11.18 Tg C). This conversion is due to the combination of the decrease of the Net Primary Productivity and the increase of the heterotrophic respiration in the future, which indicates that the restoration programs involved in converting croplands into grasslands will severely decrease the carbon sink benefits and potential. In summary, it is essential to correctly quantify the carbon contribution in the LP resulting from the GFGP, and properly manage to augment the carbon sink from the GFGP-Forest and avoid the carbon source of GFGP-Grassland in the future. Our results highlight the hidden danger of leaking carbon sink of grasslands in a typical semi-arid region under future climate-changing conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005261","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact-Based Thresholds for Investigation of High-Tide Flooding in the United States","authors":"Christopher G. Piecuch,&nbsp;Sarah B. Das,&nbsp;Levi Gorrell,&nbsp;Sönke Dangendorf,&nbsp;Benjamin D. Hamlington,&nbsp;Philip R. Thompson,&nbsp;Thomas Wahl","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005850","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005850","url":null,"abstract":"<p>High-tide flooding—minor, disruptive coastal inundation—is expected to become more frequent as sea levels rise. However, quantifying just how quickly high-tide flooding rates are changing, and whether some places experience more high-tide flooding than others, is challenging. To quantify trends in high-tide flooding from tide-gauge observations, flood thresholds—elevations above which flooding begins—must be specified. Past studies of high-tide flooding in the United States have used different data sets and approaches for specifying flood thresholds, only some of which directly relate to coastal impacts, which has lead to sometimes conflicting and ambiguous results. Here we present a novel method for quantifying, with uncertainty, high-tide flooding thresholds along the United States coast based on sparsely available impact-based flood thresholds. We use those newly modeled thresholds to make an updated assessment of changes in high-tide flooding across the United States over the past few decades. From 1990–2000 to 2010–2020, high-tide flooding rates almost certainly (probability <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>P</mi>\u0000 <mo>&gt;</mo>\u0000 <mn>99</mn>\u0000 <mi>%</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $P &gt; 99%$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>) increased along the United States East Coast, Gulf Coast, California, and Pacific Islands, while they very likely <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>(</mo>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>P</mi>\u0000 <mo>=</mo>\u0000 <mn>93</mn>\u0000 <mi>%</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <mo>)</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $(P=93%)$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> decreased along Alaska during that time; significant changes in high-tide flooding rates between the two decades were not detected in Oregon, Washington, and the Caribbean. Averaging spatially, we find that high-tide flooding rates probably <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>(</mo>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>P</mi>\u0000 <mo>=</mo>\u0000 <mn>85</mn>\u0000 <mi>%</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <mo>)</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $(P=85%)$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> more than doubled nationally between 1990–2000 and 2010–2020. Our approach lays a foundation for future studies to more accurately model high-tide flood thresholds and trends along the global coastline.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005850","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Thank You to Our 2024 Reviewers","authors":"Kelly Caylor,&nbsp;John Abatzoglou,&nbsp;Kirsten de Beurs,&nbsp;Gonéri Le Cozannet,&nbsp;Carole Dalin,&nbsp;Noah S. Diffenbaugh,&nbsp;Dabo Guan,&nbsp;Robert E. Kopp,&nbsp;Jesse Kroll,&nbsp;Justin Mankin,&nbsp;Ashok Mishra,&nbsp;Vimal Mishra,&nbsp;Jennifer Murphy,&nbsp;Michael Puma,&nbsp;Patrick M. Reed,&nbsp;Maria Cristina Rulli,&nbsp;Anna Trugman,&nbsp;Xin Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006299","url":null,"abstract":"<p>On behalf of the journal, AGU, and the scientific community, we, the editors of Earth's Future, are delighted to publish the names of the 1,061 peer reviewers who provided 1,642 reviews for our journal in 2024 (italicized names have contributed three or more reviews). Your diligent efforts to provide timely comments on our submissions have significantly improved the manuscripts and elevated the scientific rigor of future research. As a unique transdisciplinary journal, Earth's Future delves into the state of the planet and its inhabitants, sustainable and resilient societies, the science of the Anthropocene, and predictions of our shared future through research articles, reviews, and commentaries. In the face of observed and anticipated global environmental and climatic changes, the need for high-quality scientific theories, assessments, and projections about the future of our planet has never been more pressing. To safeguard research integrity in this crucial area, we rely on our reviewers' expertise and selfless cooperation. We extend our heartfelt thanks to each of the individuals listed below for their contributions to our journal and the broader scientific discourse. Your dedication is immensely appreciated.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006299","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Skill Assessment Framework for the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project","authors":"Nina Rynne,&nbsp;Camilla Novaglio,&nbsp;Julia Blanchard,&nbsp;Daniele Bianchi,&nbsp;Villy Christensen,&nbsp;Marta Coll,&nbsp;Jerome Guiet,&nbsp;Jeroen Steenbeek,&nbsp;Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz,&nbsp;Tyler D. Eddy,&nbsp;Cheryl Harrison,&nbsp;Olivier Maury,&nbsp;Kelly Ortega-Cisneros,&nbsp;Colleen M. Petrik,&nbsp;Derek P. Tittensor,&nbsp;Ryan F. Heneghan","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004868","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding climate change impacts on global marine ecosystems and fisheries requires complex marine ecosystem models, forced by global climate projections, that can robustly detect and project changes. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) uses an ensemble modeling approach to fill this crucial gap. Yet FishMIP does not have a standardised skill assessment framework to quantify the ability of member models to reproduce past observations and to guide model improvement. In this study, we apply a comprehensive model skill assessment framework to a subset of global FishMIP models that produce historical fisheries catches. We consider a suite of metrics and assess their utility in illustrating the models' ability to reproduce observed fisheries catches. Our findings reveal improvement in model performance at both global and regional (Large Marine Ecosystem) scales from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 simulation rounds. Our analysis underscores the importance of employing easily interpretable, relative skill metrics to estimate the capability of models to capture temporal variations, alongside absolute error measures to characterize shifts in the magnitude of these variations between models and across simulation rounds. The skill assessment framework developed and tested here provides a first objective assessment and a baseline of the FishMIP ensemble's skill in reproducing historical catch at the global and regional scale. This assessment can be further improved and systematically applied to test the reliability of FishMIP models across the whole model ensemble from future simulation rounds and include more variables like fish biomass or production.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004868","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143707573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate Adaptation for a Natural Atoll Island in the Maldives - Predicting the Long-Term Morphological Response of Coral Islands to Sea Level Rise and the Effect of Hazard Mitigation Strategies","authors":"F. E. Roelvink,&nbsp;G. Masselink,&nbsp;C. Stokes,&nbsp;R. T. McCall","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005576","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005576","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Coral atoll islands, common in (sub)tropical oceans, consist of low-lying accumulations of carbonate sediment produced by fringing coral reef systems and are of great socio-economic and ecological importance. Previous studies have predicted that many atoll islands will become uninhabitable before the end of this century due to sea level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding. However, the assumption that such islands are morphologically static has been challenged by observations and modeling that show the potential for overwashing and sediment deposition to maintain island freeboard. Reliable long-term predictions of island change and future flood risk, essential for adaptation planning, are, however, lacking. Here, we adopt a novel, efficient approach for modeling the long-term island response and illustrate the morphological response of an atoll island to future sea level rise and the effect of various adaptation measures. We demonstrate that wave-driven sediment deposition increases island (beach) crest freeboard. We find that the assumption of static island morphology leads to a significant increase in the predicted frequency of future island flooding compared to morphodynamically active islands. Reef adaptation measures were shown to modify the inshore wave energy, influencing the equilibrium island crest height and therefore the long-term morphological response of the island, while beach restoration mainly delays the island's response. Accounting for long-term natural island dynamics, including the morphodynamic feedback from adaptation measures, offers more realistic projections of future flood risk compared to current static island model predictions. These local projections of island response can serve as decision support tools for climate adaptation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005576","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143717251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}