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Mangrove-Saltmarsh Ecotones: Are Species Shifts Determining Eco-Morphodynamic Landform Configurations? 红树林-盐沼生态带:物种变迁是否决定了生态形态学的地貌配置?
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004990
Yizhang Wei, Barend van Maanen, Danghan Xie, Qin Jiang, Zeng Zhou, Christian Schwarz
{"title":"Mangrove-Saltmarsh Ecotones: Are Species Shifts Determining Eco-Morphodynamic Landform Configurations?","authors":"Yizhang Wei,&nbsp;Barend van Maanen,&nbsp;Danghan Xie,&nbsp;Qin Jiang,&nbsp;Zeng Zhou,&nbsp;Christian Schwarz","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004990","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004990","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mangrove-saltmarsh ecotones are experiencing rapid alterations due to climate change and human activities, however, the ecological and morphological implications of these shifts remain largely unknown. This study systematically explores how interspecific interactions and herbivory influence the dominant wetland species, as well as the resultant morphological evolution and landscape configuration. To achieve this, we develop a new eco-morphodynamic model that integrates hydrodynamics, sediment transport, bed-level change, and vegetation dynamics. The novelty of the current model lies in newly incorporated modules to simulate biotic interactions between mangroves and saltmarshes, enabling exploration of eco-morphodynamic feedback in mangrove-saltmarsh ecotones in response to tidal flows and species interactions. Our results show that vertical growth rates of coexisting vegetation species are dominant factors in determining wetland dominance. When mangroves and saltmarshes exhibit comparable growth rates, mangroves typically become the dominant wetland species. Conversely, if mangroves grow more slowly than saltmarshes, they are unable to outcompete saltmarshes. Additionally, herbivory can fundamentally alter wetland dominance depending on herbivore food preferences. Our simulations further underline that saltmarsh-dominated wetlands develop channel networks more extensively and rapidly than mangrove-dominated systems. This pattern is also observed during species invasions, with invading saltmarshes extending channel networks, while invading mangroves inhibit ongoing network expansion. This study highlights the pivotal roles of relative growth properties and herbivory in driving ecotone development in respect to wetland dominance and channel network development at the intertidal scale.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004990","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
To What Extent Does Discounting ‘Hot’ Climate Models Improve the Predictive Skill of Climate Model Ensembles? 扣除 "热 "气候模式在多大程度上提高了气候模式集合的预测能力?
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004844
Abigail McDonnell, Adam Michael Bauer, Cristian Proistosescu
{"title":"To What Extent Does Discounting ‘Hot’ Climate Models Improve the Predictive Skill of Climate Model Ensembles?","authors":"Abigail McDonnell,&nbsp;Adam Michael Bauer,&nbsp;Cristian Proistosescu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004844","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004844","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>It depends. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Assessment Report Six (AR6) took a step toward ending so-called ‘model democracy’ by discounting climate models that are too warm over the historical period (i.e., models that ‘run hot’) when making projections of global temperature change. However, the IPCC did not address whether this procedure is reliable for other quantities. Here, we explore the implications of weighting climate models according to their skill in reproducing historical global-mean surface temperature using three other climate variables of interest: global average precipitation change, regional average temperature change, and regional average precipitation change. We find that the temperature-based weighting scheme leads to an improved prediction of global average precipitation, though we show that this prediction could be overconfident. On regional scales, we find a heterogeneous pattern of error reduction in future regional precipitation. This stands in sharp contrast with the broad regional pattern of error reduction in future temperature projections, though we do find regions where error is not significantly reduced. Our results demonstrate that practitioners using weighted climate model ensembles for climate projections must take care when weighting by temperature alone, lest they produce unreliable climate projections that result from an inappropriate weighting procedure.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004844","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Change in Wind Renewable Energy Potential Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injections 平流层气溶胶注入下风能可再生能源潜力的变化
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004575
Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Laurent Terray
{"title":"Change in Wind Renewable Energy Potential Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injections","authors":"Susanne Baur,&nbsp;Benjamin M. Sanderson,&nbsp;Roland Séférian,&nbsp;Laurent Terray","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004575","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004575","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wind renewable energy (WRE) is an essential component of the global sustainable energy portfolio. Recently, there has been increasing discussion on the potential supplementation of this conventional mitigation portfolio with Solar Radiation Modification (SRM). However, the impact of SRM on conventional mitigation measures has received limited attention to date. In this study, we explore one part of this impact, the potential effect of one type of SRM, Stratospheric Aerosol Injections (SAI), on WRE. Using hourly output from the Earth System Model CNRM-ESM2-1, we compare WRE potential under a medium emission scenario (SSP245) and a high emission scenario (SSP585) with an SRM scenario that has SSP585 baseline conditions and uses SAI to offset warming to approximately SSP245 global warming levels. Our results suggest that SAI may affect surface wind resources by modifying large-scale circulation patterns, such as a significant poleward jet-shift in the Southern Hemisphere. The modeled total global WRE potential is negligibly reduced under SAI compared to the SSP-scenarios. However, regional trends are highly variable, with large increases and decreases in WRE potential frequently reaching 12% across the globe with SAI. This study highlights potential downstream effects of SRM on climatic elements, such as wind patterns, and offers perspectives on its implications for our mitigation efforts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004575","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Transdisciplinary Research Supports the Sustainability of Barrier Island Systems Threatened by Climate Change 跨学科研究为受气候变化威胁的屏障岛系统的可持续性提供支持
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004854
Patrick L. Barnard, Davina L. Passeri
{"title":"Transdisciplinary Research Supports the Sustainability of Barrier Island Systems Threatened by Climate Change","authors":"Patrick L. Barnard,&nbsp;Davina L. Passeri","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004854","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004854","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The management of developed barrier islands is often piece-meal and reactionary despite the complex, dynamic nature of these systems, and sustainable practices will become increasingly difficult due to heightened pressures of climate change. Adaptation actions, including nature-based solutions, need to be thoroughly evaluated prior to implementation to understand system-wide impacts and avoid maladaptation. Anarde et al. (2024a), (https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003672), Anarde et al. (2024b), (https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef004200) is the latest important contribution in a growing body of transdisciplinary research that more robustly evaluates the complex physical process-and-response relationship of barrier systems via sophisticated numerical modeling approaches that also interface with socioeconomic models to inform coastal management actions in response to mitigating coastal risk. This new research indicates the importance of coordinated system-scale barrier island management, as strategies to reduce coastal hazard risk in one location will directly affect adjacent communities. Further, this work demonstrates that reducing barrier management interventions may actually promote barrier recovery and sustainability in the face of sea level rise. In addition, recent advances in the analysis and application of remotely sensed data from satellites and oblique aerial photography provide scientists an unprecedented opportunity to track coastal evolution over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales at minimal cost. As sea level rise and changing storm patterns challenge the sustainable management of barrier island systems, integrating these advanced, transdisciplinary tools will enable scientists and coastal practitioners to more thoroughly evaluate coastal adaptation options, efficiently invest limited resources to mitigate coastal hazard risk for communities, support healthy ecosystems, and reduce system-wide impacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004854","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142324643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Identifying Robust Decarbonization Pathways for the Western U.S. Electric Power System Under Deep Climate Uncertainty 在深度气候不确定性下为美国西部电力系统确定稳健的去碳化途径
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004769
Srihari Sundar, Flavio Lehner, Nathalie Voisin, Michael T. Craig
{"title":"Identifying Robust Decarbonization Pathways for the Western U.S. Electric Power System Under Deep Climate Uncertainty","authors":"Srihari Sundar,&nbsp;Flavio Lehner,&nbsp;Nathalie Voisin,&nbsp;Michael T. Craig","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004769","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004769","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change threatens the resource adequacy of future power systems. Existing research and practice lack frameworks for identifying decarbonization pathways that are robust to climate-related uncertainty. We create such an analytical framework, then use it to assess the robustness of alternative pathways to achieving 60% emissions reductions from 2022 levels by 2040 for the Western U.S. power system. Our framework integrates power system planning and resource adequacy models with 100 climate realizations from a large climate ensemble. Climate realizations drive electricity demand; thermal plant availability; and wind, solar, and hydropower generation. Among five initial decarbonization pathways, all exhibit modest to significant resource adequacy failures under climate realizations in 2040, but certain pathways experience significantly less resource adequacy failures at little additional cost relative to other pathways. By identifying and planning for an extreme climate realization that drives the largest resource adequacy failures across our pathways, we produce a new decarbonization pathway that has no resource adequacy failures under any climate realizations. This new pathway is roughly 5% more expensive than other pathways due to greater capacity investment, and shifts investment from wind to solar and natural gas generators. Our analysis suggests modest increases in investment costs can add significant robustness against climate change in decarbonizing power systems. Our framework can help power system planners adapt to climate change by stress testing future plans to potential climate realizations, and offers a unique bridge between energy system and climate modeling.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004769","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142324539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial Simulation and Optimization of Cropping Structure Under Climate and Land Use Change Conditions Considering Synergistic Economic Benefits and Carbon Reduction in Crop Growth Processes 考虑到作物生长过程中的协同经济效益和碳减排,对气候和土地利用变化条件下的种植结构进行空间模拟和优化
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004684
Mo Li, Haiyan Li, Zhaoqiang Zhou, Yingshan Chen, Yijia Wang, Tianxiao Li, Qiang Fu
{"title":"Spatial Simulation and Optimization of Cropping Structure Under Climate and Land Use Change Conditions Considering Synergistic Economic Benefits and Carbon Reduction in Crop Growth Processes","authors":"Mo Li,&nbsp;Haiyan Li,&nbsp;Zhaoqiang Zhou,&nbsp;Yingshan Chen,&nbsp;Yijia Wang,&nbsp;Tianxiao Li,&nbsp;Qiang Fu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004684","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004684","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The climate and land use changes caused by the natural environment and socioeconomic development have potential impacts on the green and sustainable development of agriculture. To accommodate agricultural production under multiple scenarios of future climate and land-use change, this study proposes a “simulation–optimization” modeling approach based on a crop growth model with a synergistic “carbon emission–economic benefit” approach. This approach is based on climate change conditions and it accurately simulates future land use changes and crop growth processes, establishes a carbon emission intensity optimization model, and generates a spatial planting structure optimization and regulation scheme based on intelligent optimization algorithms under changing scenarios. The results of the model application show that the planting structure option in the future scenario can increase economic benefit by up to 14.8% compared to the current scenario while simultaneously reducing total greenhouse gas emissions by 6.77%. Correlation analysis of planting area, irrigation water volume, carbon intensity value and unilateral water use efficiency can be used to obtain the coordination level of each county under different regulation scenarios. This “simulation–optimization” modeling approach provides an effective approach to achieve synergistic and coordinated development of regional agricultural benefits and carbon reduction by fine-tuning the planting structure, which promotes low-carbon and high-quality development of regional agriculture.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004684","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142324644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unveiling the Evolution of Extreme Rainfall Storm Structure Across Space and Time in a Warming Climate 揭示气候变暖背景下极端降雨风暴结构的跨时空演变
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004675
Ankit Ghanghas, Ashish Sharma, Venkatesh Merwade
{"title":"Unveiling the Evolution of Extreme Rainfall Storm Structure Across Space and Time in a Warming Climate","authors":"Ankit Ghanghas,&nbsp;Ashish Sharma,&nbsp;Venkatesh Merwade","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004675","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004675","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change induces significant changes in storm characteristics, particularly for short-duration extreme storms (heavy rain features), impacting their intensity and spatio-temporal distribution. Although alterations in precipitation intensity are well documented, past studies examining changes in spatio-temporal distribution of storms (storm rainrates) were region-specific and focused on isolated aspects of change in space or time, eluding a comprehensive understanding of the precise nature and extent of these changes. Bridging this gap, this study introduces a novel grid-based measure of storm homogeneity, “spatio-temporal homogeneity” metric and investigates the global patterns of change in combined spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme storms. Analyzing the 30 min × 0.1° × 0.1° resolution Global Precipitation Measurements, the study finds that extreme storms are shrinking in both space and time due to rising surface air temperatures, predominantly in tropics. In contrast, temperate regions experience expanded extreme storms with increasing temperatures. The study also identifies a global trend toward more front-loading in storms with rising temperatures, driven by a substantial increase in tropics and southern temperate regions. Conversely, storms in northern temperate regions become slightly more rear-loaded as temperature increases. Furthermore, the study finds that characteristics of short–duration storms (6–12 hr) are more sensitive to temperature changes. Overall, this study contributes valuable insights into the global spatio-temporal changes of extreme storms, highlighting regions most susceptible to alterations in storm patterns due to climate change. These findings are essential for developing effective adaptation strategies and flood management practices to cope with the changing nature of extreme storms in a warming climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004675","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142313407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID): Community Insights for Scoping a NASA Terrestrial Ecology Field Campaign in Drylands 旱地适应与响应(ARID):美国国家航空航天局(NASA)旱地陆地生态实地考察活动范围界定的社区见解
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004811
Andrew F. Feldman, Sasha Reed, Cibele Amaral, Alicja Babst-Kostecka, Flurin Babst, Joel Biederman, Charles Devine, Zheng Fu, Julia K. Green, Jessica Guo, Niall P. Hanan, Raymond Kokaly, Marcy Litvak, Natasha MacBean, David Moore, Dennis Ojima, Benjamin Poulter, Russell L. Scott, William K. Smith, Robert Swap, Compton J. Tucker, Lixin Wang, Jennifer Watts, Konrad Wessels, Fangyue Zhang, Wen Zhang
{"title":"Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID): Community Insights for Scoping a NASA Terrestrial Ecology Field Campaign in Drylands","authors":"Andrew F. Feldman,&nbsp;Sasha Reed,&nbsp;Cibele Amaral,&nbsp;Alicja Babst-Kostecka,&nbsp;Flurin Babst,&nbsp;Joel Biederman,&nbsp;Charles Devine,&nbsp;Zheng Fu,&nbsp;Julia K. Green,&nbsp;Jessica Guo,&nbsp;Niall P. Hanan,&nbsp;Raymond Kokaly,&nbsp;Marcy Litvak,&nbsp;Natasha MacBean,&nbsp;David Moore,&nbsp;Dennis Ojima,&nbsp;Benjamin Poulter,&nbsp;Russell L. Scott,&nbsp;William K. Smith,&nbsp;Robert Swap,&nbsp;Compton J. Tucker,&nbsp;Lixin Wang,&nbsp;Jennifer Watts,&nbsp;Konrad Wessels,&nbsp;Fangyue Zhang,&nbsp;Wen Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004811","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004811","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Dryland ecosystems cover 40% of our planet's land surface, support billions of people, and are responding rapidly to climate and land use change. These expansive systems also dominate core aspects of Earth's climate, storing and exchanging vast amounts of water, carbon, and energy with the atmosphere. Despite their indispensable ecosystem services and high vulnerability to change, drylands are one of the least understood ecosystem types, partly due to challenges studying their heterogeneous landscapes and misconceptions that drylands are unproductive “wastelands.” Consequently, inadequate understanding of dryland processes has resulted in poor model representation and forecasting capacity, hindering decision making for these at-risk ecosystems. NASA satellite resources are increasingly available at the higher resolutions needed to enhance understanding of drylands' heterogeneous spatiotemporal dynamics. NASA's Terrestrial Ecology Program solicited proposals for scoping a multi-year field campaign, of which Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID) was one of two scoping studies selected. A primary goal of the scoping study is to gather input from the scientific and data end-user communities on dryland research gaps and data user needs. Here, we provide an overview of the ARID team's community engagement and how it has guided development of our framework. This includes an ARID kickoff meeting with over 300 participants held in October 2023 at the University of Arizona to gather input from data end-users and scientists. We also summarize insights gained from hundreds of follow-up activities, including from a tribal-engagement focused workshop in New Mexico, conference town halls, intensive roundtables, and international engagements.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004811","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142275048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Increased Significance of Global Concurrent Hazards From 1981 to 2020 1981 至 2020 年全球并发危害的重要性增加
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004490
Yilei Xu, Qiang Dai, Jingxuan Zhu, Yuanzhi Yao, Jun Zhang, Wenhui Li, Shaonan Zhu, Tongxiao Zeng, Yecheng Xu, Dawei Han
{"title":"Increased Significance of Global Concurrent Hazards From 1981 to 2020","authors":"Yilei Xu,&nbsp;Qiang Dai,&nbsp;Jingxuan Zhu,&nbsp;Yuanzhi Yao,&nbsp;Jun Zhang,&nbsp;Wenhui Li,&nbsp;Shaonan Zhu,&nbsp;Tongxiao Zeng,&nbsp;Yecheng Xu,&nbsp;Dawei Han","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004490","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004490","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The spatiotemporal overlap of multiple hazards defines what we call concurrent hazards, which usually cause more severe damage than what an isolated hazard would. Investigations of concurrent hazards at the global scale are limited. Here we first developed a novel criterion system for identifying concurrent hazards and then recognized 1,614 concurrent hazards during 1981–2020 from the 121,214 records including earthquake, storm, landslide, volcanic, wildfire and flood. Sixteen hot spot regions suffering from concurrent hazards were recognized for the first time at the global scale. By comparing two periods, 1981–2000 and 2001–2020, we found that the gross relative impact (economic damage and death) of concurrent hazards has considerably aggravated (6.3–117.0 times) in the past two decades. The low-income regions suffer more prominent increase (mostly 2–3 times of high-income regions), implying the inequitable patterns of concurrent hazard impact due to socioeconomic development. This spatial disparity entails the establishment of multidisciplinary and cross-regional collaborations in mitigating the impact of concurrent hazards.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004490","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142273298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi-Actor Human-Natural Systems Confronting Change 发现情景故事情节,为面临变化的多行为体人与自然系统制定规划
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004252
Antonia Hadjimichael, Patrick M. Reed, Julianne D. Quinn, Chris R. Vernon, Travis Thurber
{"title":"Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi-Actor Human-Natural Systems Confronting Change","authors":"Antonia Hadjimichael,&nbsp;Patrick M. Reed,&nbsp;Julianne D. Quinn,&nbsp;Chris R. Vernon,&nbsp;Travis Thurber","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004252","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004252","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Scenarios have emerged as valuable tools in managing complex human-natural systems, but the traditional approach of limiting focus on a small number of predetermined scenarios can inadvertently miss consequential dynamics, extremes, and diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by exploring a wide range of possible futures and identifying those that yield consequential vulnerabilities. However, vulnerabilities are typically identified based on aggregate robustness measures that do not take full advantage of the richness of the underlying dynamics in the large ensembles of model simulations and can make it hard to identify key dynamics and/or storylines that can guide planning or further analyses. This study introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”): a scenario discovery framework that addresses these challenges by organizing and investigating consequential scenarios using hierarchical classification of diverse outcomes across actors, sectors, and scales, while also aiding in the selection of scenario storylines, based on system dynamics that drive consequential outcomes. We present an application of this framework to the Upper Colorado River Basin, focusing on decadal droughts and their water scarcity implications for the basin's diverse users and its obligations to downstream states through Lake Powell. We show how FRNSIC can explore alternative sets of impact metrics and drought dynamics and use them to identify drought scenario storylines, that can be used to inform future adaptation planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004252","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142273135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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