Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Groundwater Level Projections for Aquifers Affected by Annual to Decadal Hydroclimate Variations: Example of Northern France","authors":"Sivarama Krishna Reddy Chidepudi,&nbsp;Nicolas Massei,&nbsp;Abderrahim Jardani,&nbsp;Abel Henriot,&nbsp;Matthieu Fournier,&nbsp;Bastien Dieppois","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005251","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In a context where anticipating future trends and long-term variations in water resources is crucial, improving our knowledge about most types of aquifer responses to climate variability and change is necessary. Aquifers with variability dominated by seasonal (marked annual cycle) or low-frequency variations (interannual to decadal variations driven by large-scale climate dynamics) may encounter different sensitivities to climate change. We investigated this hypothesis by generating groundwater level projections using deep learning models for annual, inertial (low-frequency dominated) or mixed annual/low-frequency aquifer types in northern France from 16 CMIP6 climate model inputs in an ensemble approach. Generated projections were then analyzed for trends and changes in variability. Generally, groundwater levels tended to decrease for all types and scenarios across 2030–2100 without any significant differences between emission scenarios. However, when comparing future projections to historical data, groundwater levels appeared slightly higher in the near future (2030–2050), with decreasing intensities in later periods. The variability of projections showed slightly increasing variability for annual types for all scenarios but decreasing variability for mixed and inertial types. As the severity of the scenario increased, more mixed and inertial-type stations appeared to be affected by decreasing variability. Focusing on low-frequency confirmed this observation: while a significant amount of stations showed increasing variability for the less severe SSP2-4.5 scenario, low-frequency variability eventually showed slight yet statistically significant decreasing trends as the severity of the scenario increased. For the most severe scenario, almost all stations were affected by decreasing low-frequency variability.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005251","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143926002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolution of Heat Extremes Under Net-Zero CO2 Emissions","authors":"Liam J. Cassidy,&nbsp;Andrew D. King,&nbsp;Josephine R. Brown,&nbsp;Tilo Ziehn,&nbsp;Alex Borowiak","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005399","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005399","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have warmed the planet by around 1.3°C and have contributed to the intensification of heat extremes. To stop continued global warming, we understand that we must reach and sustain net-zero global CO₂ emissions, however, there is limited knowledge on how heat extremes might change in net-zero futures. In this study, we explore possible changes in temperature extreme intensity over the century after net-zero CO₂ emissions using projections from Earth System Models in the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP). Specifically, we investigate how regional single-day temperature extreme intensities scale with global mean surface temperatures changes before and after net-zero CO₂ emissions. We also explore potential hydrological drivers of changes in temperature extreme scaling by performing focused investigations over the Mediterranean and Southern African regions. Our results show substantial reductions in scaling of temperature extreme intensity after reaching net-zero CO₂ emissions over nearly all land regions, however, scaling changes are dependent on the cumulative emissions prior to reaching net-zero CO₂. Temperature extreme scaling reductions after net-zero CO₂ are also regionally dependent, and the regional magnitudes of scaling reductions tend to favor mid-latitude land in the Northern Hemisphere relative to tropical and Southern Hemispheric land masses. From focused investigations over the Mediterranean and Southern African regions, we find that changes in atmospheric circulation and local precipitation may play a major role in determining the sign and magnitude of changes in temperature extremes after net-zero CO₂ emissions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005399","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143919372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Case for the Anthropocene Epoch Is Stronger Than the Case for the Holocene Epoch","authors":"Alasdair Skelton,&nbsp;Kevin J. Noone","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005719","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005719","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The recommendation that the Anthropocene be denoted as a geological epoch was recently rejected by the International Union of Geological Sciences. Here, we compare the scientific rationales presented for the Anthropocene, the Holocene and the six other epochs in the Cenozoic Era: the Pleistocene, the Pliocene, the Miocene, the Oligocene, the Eocene and the Paleocene. We also present a historical perspective on the process through which the Holocene was accepted as a formal geological epoch. We conclude that, from a purely geological perspective, the scientific case for the Anthropocene as a geological epoch is stronger than the case for the Holocene and as good as or better than the cases for several other epochs in the Cenozoic Era.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005719","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143914019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reducing Inequities in the Future Air Pollution Health Burden Over Europe","authors":"Connor J. Clayton,&nbsp;Steven T. Turnock,&nbsp;Daniel R. Marsh,&nbsp;Ailish M. Graham,&nbsp;Carly L. Reddington,&nbsp;Karn Vohra,&nbsp;James B. McQuaid","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005404","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;The strategies that policymakers take to mitigate climate change will have considerable implications for human exposure to air quality, with air quality co-benefits anticipated from climate change mitigation. Few studies try to model these co-benefits at a regional scale and even fewer consider health inequalities in their analyses. We analyze the health impacts across Western and Central Europe from exposure to fine particulate matter (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;PM&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2.5&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{PM}}_{2.5}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;) and surface level ozone (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;O&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;3&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${mathrm{O}}_{3}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;) in 2014 and in 2050 using three scenarios with different levels of climate change mitigation, using a high-resolution atmospheric chemistry model to simulate future air quality. We use recent health functions to estimate mortality related to the aforementioned pollutants. We also analyze the relationship between air quality mortality rate per 100,000 people and Human Development Index to establish if reductions in air quality mortality are achieved equitably. We find that air quality-related mortality (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;PM&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2.5&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{PM}}_{2.5}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; + &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;O&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;3&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${mathrm{O}}_{3}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; mortality) will only reduce in the future following a high-mitigation scenario (54%). It could increase by 7.5% following a medium-mitigation scenario and by 8.3% following a weak mitigation scenario. The differences are driven by larger reductions in &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;PM&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2.5&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{PM}}_{2.5}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;-related mortality and a small reduction in &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 ","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005404","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143908913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comprehensive Evaluation of Water-Retention and Cooling Capacities of Urban Green Space Under Different Climatic Conditions Across China","authors":"Jianping Wu,&nbsp;Zhenzhen Xiao,&nbsp;Chaoqun Zhang,&nbsp;Wenting Yan,&nbsp;Jiashun Ren,&nbsp;Ziyin Liao,&nbsp;Raffaele Lafortezza,&nbsp;Xueyan Li,&nbsp;Yongxian Su","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004757","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004757","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Urban green spaces play a crucial role in addressing pressing environmental challenges, such as alleviating the urban heat island effect and enhancing water retention. However, there remains a research gap in understanding the simultaneous benefits of water-retention and cooling capacities, especially under the diverse climatic conditions across China. Utilizing robust methodologies and remote sensing data, our study evaluates the dynamic interplay between aridity index (AI) and retention-cooling performances of urban green spaces in both cold and warm season from 2003 to 2018. Results demonstrated that water-retention capacity is more effective in relatively arid regions, whereas cooling capacity is more pronounced in humid regions, with both effects being largely season-dependent. In addition, green space proportion significantly influences the relationship between AI and retention-cooling performances, particularly for cooling capacity, which exhibits opposite trends between cold and warm seasons. Future projection analysis indicate that climate change scenarios could significantly alter retention-cooling performances, potentially leading to notable deviations from the patterns observed during the historical periods across different climate zones, with an increasing dependence on changes in local climatic conditions. The inconsistent performance of urban green spaces in terms of water-retention and cooling across seasons and various climate regions, highlighting the importance of context-specific greening strategies to sustain and enhance urban resilience to future climate change in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004757","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the Effect of Glacier Runoff Changes on Basin Runoff and Agricultural Production in the Indus, Amu Darya, and Tarim Interior Basins","authors":"R. Calvo-Gallardo,&nbsp;F. Lambert,&nbsp;N. Álamos,&nbsp;A. Urquiza","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005064","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is leading to a substantial reduction in glacier mass, and it is anticipated that during this century, the peak water contribution of glaciers to runoff will occur in major glacierized basins around the world. Glacier runoff is a crucial source of water in mountain basins, and a decrease in its contribution can affect agricultural production. In this study, we modeled the agricultural sector's response to changes in glacier runoff in the Asian basins of Amu Darya, Tarim Interior, and Indus, using the Global Change Analysis Model, which was driven by surface runoff derived from the Xanthos hydrological model and the Open Global Glacier Model. Our findings indicate that under SSP5-8.5, there is an increase in accessible water during the Peak-Water Glacier Runoff compared to the Historical Glacier Runoff scenario. However, accessible water under SSP58.5 falls below the Historical Glacier Runoff scenario in the last decades of the 21st century. The initial increase in accessible water drives the GCAM agricultural model to increase the production of oil crops, root tubers, sugar crops, and fruits, but only temporarily until peak glacier runoff occurrence. In Pakistan, we observe the adaptive response of neighboring basins (increased production) to a reduction in crop production in the Amu Darya and Indus and vice versa. Our results support the argument that policymakers should implement a holistic long-term perspective, in which the apparent positive economic effect of the temporary increase in accessible water is balanced with the threat to intergenerational access to freshwater and ecosystem conservation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005064","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143889005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Low-Altitude High-Latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Is Feasible With Existing Aircraft","authors":"Alistair Duffey,&nbsp;Matthew Henry,&nbsp;Wake Smith,&nbsp;Michel Tsamados,&nbsp;Peter J. Irvine","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005567","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005567","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is a proposed method of climate intervention in which aerosols or their precursors would be injected into the stratosphere to reduce or halt global warming. It is often assumed that to produce a substantial global cooling, SAI would require a fleet of specially designed high-altitude aircraft. However, in the extra-tropics, where the tropopause is lower, injection into the stratosphere using existing large jets is plausible. Here, we simulate an ensemble of 41 short stratospheric aerosol injection simulations in the UK Earth System Model in which we vary the altitude, latitude, and season of <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mtext>SO</mtext>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${text{SO}}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> injection. For each simulation, we diagnose aerosol optical depth and radiative forcing and estimate the global cooling under a sustained deployment. For altitudes up to around 14 km, high-latitude injection maximizes global forcing efficiency. Aerosol lifetime variation is the largest contributor to changes in efficiency with injection location. Seasonal SAI deployment with low-altitude (13 km) and high-latitude (60°N/S) injection achieves 35% of the forcing efficiency of a high-altitude (20 km), annually constant, sub-tropical (30°N/S) strategy. Low-altitude high-latitude SAI would have strongly reduced efficiency and therefore increased side-effects for a given global cooling. It would also produce a more polar cooling distribution, with reduced efficacy in the tropics. However, it would face lower technical barriers because existing large jets could be used for deployment. This could imply an increase in the number of actors able to deploy SAI, an earlier potential start date, and perhaps a greater risk of unilateral deployment.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005567","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143879816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-Objective Optimization of the Food-Energy-Water Nexus Problem: A Review of the Key Concepts and Emerging Opportunities in Objective Functions, Decision Variables, and Optimization Techniques","authors":"Isaac Okola,&nbsp;Elisha Opiyo Omulo,&nbsp;Daniel Orwa Ochieng,&nbsp;Gilbert Ouma","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004718","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004718","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Food, energy, and water are basic needs that are quite important in livelihood sustainability. In most situations, their interactions make trade-offs between these key areas of need challenging to attain. For the Food-Energy-Water Nexus (FEWN), there exists a need for appropriate decision-making tools that may help to surmount such challenges. Multiobjective Optimization Approaches (MOAs) have emerged as potential solutions within this domain. The major components explored in this review include the objective functions, decision variables, and optimization techniques within MOAs. Despite their potential, few studies comprehensively address the key concepts of these components, the role of stakeholder involvement, the limitations of existing research, and the emerging technological opportunities that could enhance MOAs in the FEWN. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses protocol, was combined with Meta-ethnography to select, review, and analyze the literature. The data synthesis was done by meta-ethnography, finding key terms to categorize objective functions, decision variables, and optimization techniques and developing key concepts related to MOAs in the FEWN. Key terms for categorizing objective functions are maximizing economic, environmental, and social benefits and food, energy, and water security. For the decision variables, the key terms include availability, accessibility, and sufficiency, while the optimization techniques are Mathematical Programming and Metaheuristics. Besides, emerging technologies create substantial opportunities to improve the performance of MOAs. Therefore, there is a need to develop MOAs that integrate economic, environmental, and social aspects to support the sustainability of the FEWN.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004718","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143875579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of Anthropogenic Emission Change Scenarios on U.S. Water and Carbon Balances at National and State Scales in a Changing Climate","authors":"L. Zhang,&nbsp;K. Duan,&nbsp;Y. Zhang,&nbsp;G. Sun,&nbsp;X. Liang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004853","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004853","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The U.S. water supply and carbon sequestration are increasingly threatened by future climate change and air pollution. This study investigates the ecohydrological responses to the individual and combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emission (referring only to air pollutants, excluding greenhouse gases) changes at two spatial scales by coupling a regional online-coupled meteorology and chemistry model (WRF-Chem) and a water balance model (WaSSI). Combined effects of climate change and anthropogenic emission changes in 2046–2055 relative to 2001–2010 over the US enhance hydrological cycle and carbon sequestration. However, a drying trend occurs in the central and part of the western U.S. Climate change is projected to dominate the ecohydrological changes in most regions. Anthropogenic emission changes under 2001–2010 climate conditions cools down inland water resource regions with 0.01–0.15°C, moisturizes the east and dry the west U.S. More stringent anthropogenic emission control enhances precipitation and ecosystem production in the east and west but has an opposite trend in the central U.S. The ecohydrological modeling in California and North Carolina based on 4-km resolution meteorological data in 2050 and 2005 shows varying changes in magnitudes and spatial patterns compared to results based on 36-km resolution meteorological data. Projected changes in air pollutant emissions may accelerate climatic warming in coastal areas and the state of New Mexico and decrease precipitation, runoff, and carbon sequestration in part of the western U.S. Strategies to address future possible problems such as heatwaves, water stress, and ecosystem productivity should consider the varying interplay between air quality control and climate change at different spatial scales.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004853","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143875581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Rice Paddy Inventory (GRPI): A High-Resolution Inventory of Methane Emissions From Rice Agriculture Based on Landsat Satellite Inundation Data","authors":"Zichong Chen,&nbsp;Haipeng Lin,&nbsp;Nicholas Balasus,&nbsp;Andy Hardy,&nbsp;James D. East,&nbsp;Yuzhong Zhang,&nbsp;Benjamin R. K. Runkle,&nbsp;Sarah E. Hancock,&nbsp;Charles A. Taylor,&nbsp;Xinming Du,&nbsp;Bjoern Ole Sander,&nbsp;Daniel J. Jacob","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005479","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005479","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rice agriculture is a major source of atmospheric methane, but current emission inventories are highly uncertain, mostly due to poor rice-specific inundation data. Inversions of atmospheric methane observations can help to better quantify rice emissions but require high-resolution prior information on the location and timing of emissions. Here we use Landsat satellite data at 30 m resolution to map the global monthly distribution of rice paddy fractional areas on a 0.1° × 0.1° (∼10 × 10 km) grid by optimizing an algorithm for flooded vegetation and combining it with a 30 m global cropland database and rice-specific data. We validate this global rice paddy map with an independent US rice database and with seasonal flux measurements from the FLUXNET CH₄ network, estimating errors on rice area fraction of 31% on the 0.1° × 0.1° grid and 10% regionally. We combine the rice paddy map with an extensive global data set of emission factors (EFs) per unit of rice paddy area. The resulting Global Rice Paddy Inventory (GRPI) provides methane emission estimates at 0.1° × 0.1° (∼10 × 10 km) spatial resolution and monthly resolution. Our global emission of 39.3 ± 4.7 Tg a⁻¹ for 2022 (best estimate and error standard deviation) is higher than previous inventories that use outdated rice maps and IPCC-recommended EFs now considered to be too low. China is the largest rice emitter in GRPI (8.2 ± 1.0 Tg a⁻¹), followed by India (6.5 ± 1.0 Tg a⁻¹), Bangladesh (5.7 ± 1.2 Tg a⁻¹), Vietnam (5.7 ± 1.0 Tg a⁻¹), and Thailand (4.4 ± 0.9 Tg a⁻¹). These five countries together account for 78% of global total rice emissions. Seasonality of emissions varies considerably between and within individual countries reflecting differences in climate and crop practices. We define a rice methane intensity (methane emission per unit of rice produced) to assess the potential of mitigating methane emission without compromising food security. We find national methane intensities ranging from 10 to 120 kg methane per ton of rice produced (global mean 51) for major rice-growing countries. Countries can achieve low intensities with high-yield cultivars, upland rice agriculture, water management, and organic matter management.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005479","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143875580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}