Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Soil Moisture Feedback Amplified the Earlier Onset of the Record-Breaking Three-Day Consecutive Heatwave in 2023 in North China","authors":"Kexin Gui,&nbsp;Tianjun Zhou","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005561","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005561","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A record-breaking heatwave swept North China in the summer of 2023, with a regional average of daily maximum temperature exceeding 35°C on June 23, which was the hottest day since 1959. We use the dynamical adjustment approach to assess the contributions of atmospheric circulation and Soil moisture (SM) to this heatwave and find that they contributed 69.8% and 39.5%, respectively. The anomalous anticyclone that caused this heatwave was influenced by upstream signals. Easterly winds on the southern side of the anticyclone led to anomalous subsidence, which heated the air over North China. While such anomalous anticyclones over North China are not uncommon due to atmospheric circulation variability, the 2023 heatwave still broke records because the SM-temperature coupling during the heatwave was unprecedented, with a strength four times that of typical years. The dry soil conditions during the heatwave stemmed from a lack of precipitation beforehand, with cumulative rainfall in North China being the lowest since 1979. The early dryness of the soil provided favorable conditions for land-atmosphere feedback, and under the trigger of subsidence-induced warming from the early summer anticyclone, the strong SM-temperature coupling significantly amplified the intensity of this heatwave. For future projections, numerical experiment analysis shows that temperatures currently considered extreme during 2023 heatwave event will become commonplace in the future due to SM-atmosphere coupling. However, by the end of the century, the impact of land-atmosphere coupling on extreme high temperatures in North China will diminish compared to historical period, owing to increased SM.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005561","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Response of Soil Carbon Mineralization to Grassland Management Practices on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Jianjun Cao,&nbsp;Yizhe Peng,&nbsp;Asim Biswas,&nbsp;Xiaofang Zhang,&nbsp;Jan F. Adamowski,&nbsp;Qi Feng","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006047","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006047","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Grassland management practices strongly influence soil carbon dynamics, yet their effects on carbon mineralization processes in high-altitude regions remain poorly understood. We examined soil carbon mineralization patterns under four common grassland management practices implemented on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (i.e., seasonal grazing, continuous grazing, perennial artificial grasslands, and annual artificial grasslands) using a 147-day incubation experiment. We also analyzed soil properties, microbial communities, and carbon degradation genes to understand the mechanisms driving carbon mineralization. We observed distinct depth-dependent responses to management practices. In surface soils (0–0.15 m), seasonal grazing exhibited the highest cumulative carbon mineralization (2993.32 mg CO₂-C kg⁻¹), 1.5-fold higher than annual artificial grasslands. However, in subsurface soils (0.15–0.30 m), continuous grazing showed the greatest cumulative carbon mineralization (2355.18 mg CO₂-C kg⁻¹), 1.5-fold higher than perennial artificial grasslands. Collectively, soil properties, carbon degradation genes, and fungal diversity explained 74% of the variation in cumulative carbon mineralization, with soil properties showing the strongest direct effect (path coefficient = 0.62). Interestingly, bacterial diversity exhibited a negative relationship with cumulative carbon mineralization, suggesting previously underappreciated mechanisms of carbon preservation involving microbial-derived compounds and their interaction with soil minerals. The variability in the abundance of specific carbon degradation genes across grassland management practices revealed that peroxidase and limonene 1,2-epoxide hydrolase genes showed positive correlations with cumulative carbon mineralization. Our results suggest that optimal soil carbon management in high-altitude grasslands is challenging and requires careful consideration of both grassland management practices and soil depth, especially spatial and temporal patterns of grazing pressure.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006047","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating How Climate Adaptation Measures Affect the Interconnected Water-Energy Resource Systems of the Western United States","authors":"A. Singhal,&nbsp;J. K. Szinai,&nbsp;D. Yates,&nbsp;A. D. Jones","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006072","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006072","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Western US faces increasing water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet water demands for the region's cities, agriculture, and hydropower generators. Existing literature suggests that climate adaptation measures such as water conservation, cropland retirement, wastewater recycling, and managed aquifer recharge can alleviate some of these challenges. Few analyses, however, compare the relative efficacy and system-wide effects of these adaptations under different climate projections across the entire Western United States. Here we use a Western US-wide water systems model to evaluate, by sector and sub-region, how the widespread implementation of these adaptive measures impacts water demands, water deliveries, and electricity use related to the water system for three different climate projections. We find that wastewater recycling has greater potential to lower unmet indoor water demands than urban indoor water conservation measures. However, when implemented at scale, indoor water conservation reduces electricity use by an average of 683 Terawatt hours while wastewater recycling increases energy use by an average of 721 Terawatt hours, cumulatively from 2020 to 2070. Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge adaptations increase the ability to meet agricultural water demand, increase groundwater storage, and reduce summertime electricity use. While most of these findings are consistent across different climate projections, the benefits of aquifer recharge are sensitive to spatial variation of precipitation. Given the limitations and tradeoffs of each individually, the results suggest that a portfolio of adaptation measures will be needed for a climate-resilient water and energy future in the Western US.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006072","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144624322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reconstructing Repetitive Flood Exposure Across 78 Events From 1996 to 2020 in North Carolina, USA","authors":"Helena M. Garcia,&nbsp;Antonia Sebastian,&nbsp;Kieran P. Fitzmaurice,&nbsp;Miyuki Hino,&nbsp;Elyssa L. Collins,&nbsp;Gregory W. Characklis","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006026","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006026","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Measuring flooding through time is crucial for understanding exposure and vulnerability — key components to estimating flood risks and impacts. Yet, historical records of flood inundation are sparse. In this study, we reconstruct flood extents for 78 damaging events in eastern North Carolina between 1996 and 2020 using high-resolution geospatial data and address-level National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) records. We train random forest models on NFIP-based labeled flood presence and absence data and a suite of geospatial predictors. Then, we predict the probability of flood damage at every 30 m grid cell within our model domain. Our models achieve an average Area Under the Curve of 0.76 and outperform flood extent estimates from process-based and remote sensing models when evaluated against NFIP data for six events. We find that approximately 90,000 (2.3%) buildings in our study area flooded at least once, of which over 20,000 (0.53%) flooded more than once. Our estimate is more than double the number of buildings that filed NFIP claims between 1996 and 2020. Furthermore, 43% of flooded buildings are located outside the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Special Flood Hazard Area. Our results illustrate that flood exposure, especially repetitive exposure, is much more widespread than previously recognized. By generating a comprehensive record of past flood extents using address-level observations of damage, we create a first-of-its-kind geospatial database that can be used to identify locations of repetitive flooding. This represents a crucial first step in examining the dynamic relationships between flood exposure, vulnerability, and risk.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006026","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144615526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating the Role of Internal Climate Variability and Bias Adjustment Methods on Decadal Glacier Projections","authors":"Matthew Weathers,&nbsp;David R. Rounce,&nbsp;John Fasullo,&nbsp;Fabien Maussion","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005624","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005624","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Glacier mass loss is one of the main contributors to sea-level rise and poses challenges for future water resources. Refining glacier projections and sources of uncertainty thus supports climate adaptation and mitigation. Here we explicitly quantify the impact of internal climate variability and climate data bias adjustment methods on regional and global glacier projections through 2100 for various emissions scenarios. Uncertainty from internal climate variability is comparable to climate model structural uncertainty (i.e., arising from physical representations and parameter settings) in the coming decades at the regional level, but is not a major source of uncertainty in centennial global glacier projections. Bias adjustment options (method and time period) moderately impact projections at regional and glacier scales, but have a smaller impact (∼2% of global glacier mass at 2100, relative to 2020) at global scales. In some regions, the uncertainty due to internal climate variability is larger than climate model structural uncertainty for the entirety of the 21st century, and bias adjustment options can nearly double the regional uncertainty by 2100. At the glacier scale, bias adjustments can lead to differences in projected decadal and centennial mass loss of up to 30%, although these greatest differences are associated with the smallest (&lt;1 km²) glaciers. Overall, internal climate variability and climate data bias adjustment methods are important to consider, especially in regional applications, to better estimate uncertainty in future sea-level rise and water resources availability.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005624","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144611950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flooding Projections Due To Groundwater Emergence Caused by Sea Level Variability","authors":"Austin T. Barnes,&nbsp;Mark A. Merrifield,&nbsp;Kian Bagheri,&nbsp;Morgan C. Levy,&nbsp;Hassan Davani","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006270","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006270","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rising groundwater tables due to sea level rise (SLR) pose a critical but understudied threat to low-lying coastal regions. This study uses field observations and dynamic modeling to investigate drivers of groundwater variability and to project flooding risks from emergent groundwater in Imperial Beach, California. Hourly groundwater table data from four monitoring wells (2021–2024) reveal distinct aquifer behaviors across soil types. In transmissive coastal sandy soils, groundwater levels are dominated by ocean tides, with secondary contributions from non-tidal sea level variability and seasonal recharge. In this setting, we calibrated an empirical groundwater model to observations, and forced the model with regional SLR scenarios. We project that groundwater emergence along the low-lying coastal road will begin by the 2060s under intermediate SLR trajectories, and escalate to near-daily flooding by 2100. Over 20% of San Diego County's coastline shares similar transmissive sandy geology and thus similar flooding risk. Results underscore the urgency of integrating groundwater hazards into coastal resilience planning, as current adaptation strategies in Imperial Beach—focused on surface flooding—are insufficient to address infrastructure vulnerabilities from below. This study provides a transferable framework for assessing groundwater-driven flooding in transmissive coastal aquifers, where SLR-induced groundwater rise threatens critical infrastructure decades before permanent inundation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006270","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144606647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Leverage Points and Cascading Impacts Analysis in Nexus Systems Using System Dynamics Modeling","authors":"Virginia R. Coletta,&nbsp;Irene Pluchinotta,&nbsp;Vassilios Pisinaras,&nbsp;Andreas Panagopoulos,&nbsp;Raffaele Giordano,&nbsp;Alessandro Pagano,&nbsp;Umberto Fratino,&nbsp;Alberto Montanari","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006190","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006190","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Operationalizing the Water-Ecosystem-Food (WEF) Nexus approach for sustainable resource management is challenging due to the complexity, non-linearity, and uncertainty of interconnected resources systems. A promising strategy requires identifying leverage points, namely key elements and processes where interventions can generate significant systemic change. However, leverage points are often difficult to discover and typically treated as static nodes rather than evolving and uncertain. To overcome this gap, qualitative and quantitative System Dynamics modeling tools are combined with other system-analysis methods. Unlike traditional approaches, the proposed modeling framework analyses leverage points as key dynamic elements, links, and feedback loops that activate and shift in intensity based on system state. The modeling process, applied to the Pinios River Basin (PRB) in Greece, helped revealing critical leverage points, including factors such as groundwater quality and agricultural productivity, key causal influences like the impact of natural areas' condition on agrotourism, and relevant feedback loops, such as the reinforcing dynamic driving the decline of natural areas. Deterministic and stochastic simulations contributed to validate the robustness of the modeling framework, with stochastic methods providing additional insights into the variability and uncertainty of system behavior. Recurring leverage points across simulations proved essential to drive effective management during critical transitions. Beyond the PRB, this modeling process provides a versatile framework for understanding and managing complex multi-sector systems, applicable to different contexts to support strategic decision-making toward sustainability and cascading impacts mitigation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006190","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144606646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Elevated Forest Canopy Loss After Wildfires in Moist and Cool Forests in the Pacific Northwest","authors":"Huilin Huang,&nbsp;Yun Qian,&nbsp;Dalei Hao,&nbsp;Nate Mcdowell,&nbsp;Lingcheng Li,&nbsp;Brendan M. Rogers,&nbsp;Mingjie Shi,&nbsp;Karl Rittger,&nbsp;Yanjun Song,&nbsp;Gautam Bisht,&nbsp;Xingyuan Chen","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006373","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006373","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wildfire frequency, intensity, and rate of spread are increasing across the Western U.S, resulting in more severe ecosystem impacts. Significant tree mortality can occur years after fire events, but this has received little attention compared to the immediate tree loss during a fire. We overlapped forest cover loss data with burn severity maps in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and quantified the total and delayed forest canopy loss after fires. We found that wildfires resulted in total canopy loss fraction (CLF) of 84%, 53%, and 22% within 3 years in areas burned at high, moderate, and low severity, respectively. The delayed canopy loss accounted for approximately 1/3, 1/2, and 2/3 of the total canopy loss for high, moderate, and low severity burns. Delayed canopy loss was greater in moist and cool areas than in dry and warm areas, likely because tree species in wetter environments were less adapted to survive when fires did occur. Across all forests, delayed CLF doubled as temperature increased from the climatological mean to a hot anomaly and tripled as vapor pressure deficit increased from a wet anomaly to a dry anomaly. Fire impacts on forest ecosystems are likely to intensify under future climate scenarios as wildfires expand into areas that historically experienced infrequent fires. The impacts can also be exacerbated by more frequent compound extreme events, such as droughts, heatwaves, and fires. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted forest management strategies, particularly in mesic forests, to mitigate future fire impacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006373","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144611952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What Factors Drove the Global Cropland Expansion Into Highlands?","authors":"Wanxu Chen,&nbsp;Yanghaoyue Yuan,&nbsp;Tianci Gu,&nbsp;Haitao Ma,&nbsp;Jie Zeng","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005337","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005337","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The escalating demand for agricultural land, along with limited availability in lowland areas, has driven cropland expansion into highlands (CEIH), potentially resulting in land degradation, habitat degradation, and a decline in food production. However, few studies thoroughly investigated the distribution and driving factors of global CEIH, even though a considerable amount of cropland has extended to the highlands over recent decades. To investigate CEIH, we employed spatial statistics, elevation spectrum analysis, and terrain gradient methods to quantify spatio-temporal patterns and elevation changes in global cropland distribution from 1995 to 2020. We then explored the key driving factors of CEIH at different scales using spatial regression models and multiscale geo-weighted regression model. The results revealed that global average cropland elevation increased from 422.782 m in 1995 to 427.321 m in 2020, representing a 4.539 m net increase. CEIH was reflected on both global and continental scales in all continents except South America during the study period. Furthermore, CEIH showed an intense agglomeration pattern. Human activities and cropland reclamation rate emerged as the primary underlying driving factors of CEIH. The encroachment of development on lowland agricultural areas forced CEIH, which was the core of this phenomenon. Vertical cropland expansion was predominantly concentrated in ecologically vulnerable highlands and ecological transition zones. The driving factors of CEIH exhibited spatial and multiscale heterogeneity. These findings provided a scientific basis for formulating targeted cropland conservation policies by highlighting the differences in cropland management performance across various levels of government globally.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005337","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144606452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Anthropocene and Its Contenders: Cross-Disciplinary Tools for a Nationally Divided Humanity","authors":"Daniele Conversi","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004918","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF004918","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Building on two essays previously published in <i>Earth's Future</i>, this Commentary aims to further and expand the debate by considering two indirectly correlated aspects: <i>interdisciplinarity</i> and <i>internationalism</i>, both of which can find a powerful ally in the notion of the Anthropocene. The two essays respectively address the cross-disciplinary/trans-disciplinary reach of the Anthropocene (Zalasiewicz et al. 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ef001896) and its popular expansion and acceptance (Żuk &amp; Żuk, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef004045). The Commentary shows how the Anthropocene has produced an overarching narrative which is potentially enabling in a world divided by nationalism and where science is fractured by disciplinary boundaries. It suggests how the Anthropocene concept may be more effectively understood and used in relationship to these two dimensions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004918","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144606449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}