Earths Future最新文献_第10页

The Impact of Green Development of Industrial Parks on the Reduction of Carbon Emissions in Urban Areas—Empirical Research on Green Industrial Parks in China 工业园区绿色发展对城市碳减排的影响--中国绿色工业园区实证研究

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-12-11 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005161

Xiang Yu, Wentao Hu, Mudan Wang

{"title":"The Impact of Green Development of Industrial Parks on the Reduction of Carbon Emissions in Urban Areas—Empirical Research on Green Industrial Parks in China","authors":"Xiang Yu, Wentao Hu, Mudan Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005161","url":null,"abstract":"China has over 2,500 national and provincial industrial parks, stimulating the economics growth, meanwhile being the primary sources of carbon dioxide emissions and other pollutants. Assessing the mechanisms and impacts of the policies of pilot programs of green industrial parks on urban carbon emissions offers critical insights into the efficacy and application of green and low-carbon development. This study utilizes a staggered difference-in-differences model to examine the impact of green industrial park pilot policies. The results demonstrate that green industrial parks have effectively reduced carbon emissions of the studied counties in terms of total and intensity. The economic scales and the administrative levels of any given city significantly influence the implementation effect of green industrial park policy. In applying the green industrial park policy, reducing the carbon emissions is more pronounced in cities with larger economic scales and higher administrative levels. Environmental regulation policies and green industrial park pilot policies exhibit a certain degree of substitution effect. The green industrial parks drive urban carbon emission reduction through three main channels: enhancing green technologies, optimizing industrial structures, and elevating economic agglomeration levels. Overall, this study provides a new perspective, a methodological reference, and empirical evidence for promoting green and low-carbon development for industrial parks in the different regions and developing countries.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005161","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fusion of Probabilistic Projections of Sea-Level Rise 海平面上升概率预测的融合

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-12-11 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005295

Benjamin S. Grandey, Justin Dauwels, Zhi Yang Koh, Benjamin P. Horton, Lock Yue Chew

{"title":"Fusion of Probabilistic Projections of Sea-Level Rise","authors":"Benjamin S. Grandey, Justin Dauwels, Zhi Yang Koh, Benjamin P. Horton, Lock Yue Chew","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005295","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005295","url":null,"abstract":"A probabilistic projection of sea-level rise uses a probability distribution to represent scientific uncertainty. However, alternative probabilistic projections of sea-level rise differ markedly, revealing ambiguity, which poses a challenge to scientific assessment and decision-making. To address the challenge of ambiguity, we propose a new approach to quantify a best estimate of the scientific uncertainty associated with sea-level rise. Our proposed fusion combines the complementary strengths of the ice sheet models and expert elicitations that were used in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Under a low-emissions scenario, the fusion's very likely range (5th–95th percentiles) of global mean sea-level rise is 0.3–1.0 m by 2100. Under a high-emissions scenario, the very likely range is 0.5–1.9 m. The 95th percentile projection of 1.9 m can inform a high-end storyline, supporting decision-making for activities with low uncertainty tolerance. By quantifying a best estimate of scientific uncertainty, the fusion caters to diverse users.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005295","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Future Pathways of Water, Energy, and Food in the Eastern Nile Basin 东尼罗河盆地水、能源和食物的未来之路

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-12-06 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF003979

Ahmed Abdelkader, Amin Elshorbagy, Mohamed Elshamy, Howard Wheater

{"title":"Future Pathways of Water, Energy, and Food in the Eastern Nile Basin","authors":"Ahmed Abdelkader, Amin Elshorbagy, Mohamed Elshamy, Howard Wheater","doi":"10.1029/2023EF003979","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003979","url":null,"abstract":"The Eastern Nile Basin (ENB) countries of Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia are subject to pronounced water, energy, and food (WEF) insecurity. There is a need to manage the WEF nexus to meet rapidly increasing demands, but this is extremely challenging due to resource scarcity and climate change. If countries that rely on shared transboundary water resources have contradictory WEF plans, that could diminish the expected outcomes, both nationally and regionally. Egypt as the most downstream Nile country is concerned about ongoing and future developments upstream, which could exacerbate Egypt's water scarcity and affect its ability to meet its WEF objectives. In this context, we introduce a multi-model WEF framework that simulates the ENB water resources, food production, and hydropower generation systems. The models were calibrated and validated for the period 1983–2016, then utilized to project a wide range of future development plans, up to 2050, using four performance measures to evaluate the WEF nexus. A thematic pathway for regional development that shows high potential for mutual benefits is identified. However, the WEF planning outcomes for the region are sensitive to climate change, but, if social drivers could be managed (e.g., by lowering population growth rates) despite the difficulties involved, climate change impacts on WEF security could be less severe.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF003979","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Earthquake Iso-Nuisance and Iso-Damage Mapping for Alberta: Applications for Choosing Magnitude Thresholds to Manage Induced Seismicity 艾伯塔省地震等妨害和等损害测绘：选择震级阈值管理诱发地震活动的应用

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004985

Mauricio Reyes Canales, Elwyn Galloway, Steven Pawley, Javad Yusifbayov, Greg Hartman

{"title":"Earthquake Iso-Nuisance and Iso-Damage Mapping for Alberta: Applications for Choosing Magnitude Thresholds to Manage Induced Seismicity","authors":"Mauricio Reyes Canales, Elwyn Galloway, Steven Pawley, Javad Yusifbayov, Greg Hartman","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004985","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004985","url":null,"abstract":"We generate earthquake iso-nuisance and iso-damage maps for Alberta. These maps show the spatial distribution of earthquake magnitude required to reach a specific level of nuisance and damage, considering human exposure and surficial geological conditions. We rely on population distribution for the human exposure factor while utilizing Vs30 derived from surficial geological modeling to approximate site amplification effects. By including the trailing seismicity factor, the iso-nuisance and iso-damage maps provide the base for the Magnitude Threshold for Acceptable Seismicity maps, which can set a guideline for the upper magnitude boundary, or largest magnitude event permissible, related to industrial activities causing seismicity. The trailing seismicity factor refers to the subsequent seismicity after a substantial change or end of the seismogenic operations; for instance, the cessation of seismogenic hydraulic fracturing activities under a traffic light protocol after a magnitude threshold event (red-light event). Considering variations in the trailing seismicity factor, we derive different Magnitude Threshold for Acceptable Seismicity maps for various injection-induced activities, including hydraulic fracturing and fluid disposal activities. Extended versions of the Magnitude Threshold for Acceptable Seismicity maps could allow for safety factors pertinent to critical infrastructure in a particular area, incorporating other factors beyond the population distribution and warranting a different tolerance level. These maps help to define the magnitude threshold from induced seismicity, maintaining the same tolerance levels throughout a region. Thus, they can be highly beneficial in managing current and future cases of induced seismicity related to the energy sector.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004985","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Constrained Precipitation Extremes Reveal Unequal Future Socioeconomic Exposure 受约束的极端降水揭示了未来不平等的社会经济风险

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004825

Ziyi Liu, Yao Yue, Louise Slater, Alistair G. L. Borthwick, Yuanfang Chai, Xiaofan Luan, Chiyuan Miao, Zhonghua Yang

{"title":"Constrained Precipitation Extremes Reveal Unequal Future Socioeconomic Exposure","authors":"Ziyi Liu, Yao Yue, Louise Slater, Alistair G. L. Borthwick, Yuanfang Chai, Xiaofan Luan, Chiyuan Miao, Zhonghua Yang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004825","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004825","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme precipitation can lead to major flooding, impacting human health and safety. Thus, reliable projections of population and GDP exposure to future extreme precipitation are imperative. Here, we quantify future precipitation characteristics from robust emergent constraint relationships between historical and future monthly precipitation extremes (99th percentile) across 19 CMIP6 models (r2 > 0.7 in 74–84% of 0.5° global land grids), and narrow uncertainty by 37.0–39.5% (absolute reduction being 0.753–0.774 mm/day). The constrained grid-averaged future 99th percentile extreme is 6.96 ± 0.0059, 7.03 ± 0.0061, 7.11 ± 0.0063, and 7.29 ± 0.0067 mm/day, under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, which exceeds historical extremes substantially in terms of intensity (12.9–19.7%) and frequency (1.6–2.3 times more). Future population and GDP exposed to 99th percentile extreme precipitation grow quickly, and are projected to exceed 1 million people in 27–40 countries and 10 billion USD (2005 Purchasing-Power Parity) in 48–77 countries. Growth of future population exposure is dominated by an increase in extreme precipitation frequency rather than a rise in population, especially in developed countries. GDP exposure is controlled by the coupled effects of rapid socio-economic development and significant shifts in precipitation frequency. Using indices of socio-economic vulnerability, government effectiveness and economic freedom, we identify the unequal situation that high-risk countries with high exposure are commonly characterized by low GDP per capita and high sociopolitical instability.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004825","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity 受气候敏感性制约的区域影响不佳

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004901

Ranjini Swaminathan, Jacob Schewe, Jeremy Walton, Klaus Zimmermann, Colin Jones, Richard A. Betts, Chantelle Burton, Chris D. Jones, Matthias Mengel, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Andrew G. Turner, Katja Weigel

{"title":"Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity","authors":"Ranjini Swaminathan, Jacob Schewe, Jeremy Walton, Klaus Zimmermann, Colin Jones, Richard A. Betts, Chantelle Burton, Chris D. Jones, Matthias Mengel, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Andrew G. Turner, Katja Weigel","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004901","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004901","url":null,"abstract":"Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the latest-generation models have high effective climate sensitivities (EffCS). It has been argued these “hot” models are unrealistic and should therefore be excluded from analyses of climate change impacts. Whether this would improve regional impact assessments, or make them worse, is unclear. Here we show there is no universal relationship between EffCS and projected changes in a number of important climatic drivers of regional impacts. Analyzing heavy rainfall events, meteorological drought, and fire weather in different regions, we find little or no significant correlation with EffCS for most regions and climatic drivers. Even when a correlation is found, internal variability and processes unrelated to EffCS have similar effects on projected changes in the climatic drivers as EffCS. Model selection based solely on EffCS appears to be unjustified and may neglect realistic impacts, leading to an underestimation of climate risks.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004901","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Projecting Future Chronic Coastal Hazard Impacts, Hotspots, and Uncertainty at Regional Scale 在区域尺度上预测未来长期沿海灾害影响、热点和不确定性

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005523

Meredith Leung, Laura Cagigal, Fernando Mendez, Peter Ruggiero

{"title":"Projecting Future Chronic Coastal Hazard Impacts, Hotspots, and Uncertainty at Regional Scale","authors":"Meredith Leung, Laura Cagigal, Fernando Mendez, Peter Ruggiero","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005523","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005523","url":null,"abstract":"While there is high certainty that chronic coastal hazards like flooding and erosion are increasing due to climate change induced sea-level rise, there is high uncertainty surrounding the timing, intensity, and location of future hazard impacts. Assessments that quantify these aspects of future hazards are critical for adaptation planning under a changing climate and can reveal new insights into the drivers of coastal hazards. In particular, probabilistic simulations of future hazard impacts can improve these assessments by explicitly quantifying uncertainty and by better simulating dependence structures between the complex multivariate drivers of hazards. In this study, a regional-scale probabilistic assessment of climate change induced coastal hazards is conducted for the Cascadia region (Northern Washington to Northern California), USA during the 21st century. Three co-produced hazard proxies for beach safety, erosion, and flooding are quantified to identify areas of high hazard impacts and determine hazard uncertainty under three sea-level rise scenarios. A novel chronic coastal hazard hotspot indicator is introduced that identifies areas that may experience significant increases in hazard impacts compared to present day conditions. We find that beaches near the California-Oregon border and in Northern Washington have larger hazard impacts and hazard uncertainty due to their morphologic setting. Erosional hazards, relative to beach safety and coastal flooding, will increase the most in Cascadia during the 21st century under all sea-level rise scenarios. Finally, we find that hazard uncertainty associated with wave and water level variability exceeds the uncertainty associated with sea-level rise for most of the 21st century.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005523","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Impacts of Warming on Shallow and Deep-Water Fisheries in New Zealand 气候变暖对新西兰浅水和深水渔业的影响

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004857

S. Datta, H. Beran, A. Rogers

{"title":"The Impacts of Warming on Shallow and Deep-Water Fisheries in New Zealand","authors":"S. Datta, H. Beran, A. Rogers","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004857","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004857","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is already impacting ecosystem composition and species distributions. Here we study two different, but equally valuable New Zealand fisheries (Tasman Bay and Golden Bay, and Chatham Rise), and the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure. We use mizer, a size-based multispecies modeling package, to simulate interacting fish species in each ecosystem. Utilizing therMizer, an extension of mizer which incorporates temperature effects on species' metabolic rate and aerobic scope, we implement historical climate data from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP). This enables us to recreate the historical time period of 1961–2010, deriving reasonable steady state biomasses closely matching past observations. We then carry out a controlled warming simulation experiment, allowing for temperature to remain steady or to increase for both ecosystems, both with and without fishing pressure. The shallower ecosystem of Tasman and Golden Bay has more thermally tolerant species and experiences an overall increase in community biomass under warming, whilst the deeper ecosystem of Chatham Rise suffers an overall decline. In addition, fishing has a stronger negative impact on the Chatham Rise community. Smaller bodied animals also tend to be more resilient, both to warming and fishing impacts. Despite differences in community responses, the majority of important fisheries suffer reduced yields under warming in both ecosystems. Issues raised during the incorporation of temperature effects include species' thermal tolerances and model calibration to data. This study facilitates ecosystem intercomparisons under climate change and offers insight into drivers of ecosystem responses.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004857","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142763978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Flooding is Not Like Filling a Bath 洪水不像往浴缸里注水

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005164

Brett F. Sanders, Oliver E. J. Wing, Paul D. Bates

{"title":"Flooding is Not Like Filling a Bath","authors":"Brett F. Sanders, Oliver E. J. Wing, Paul D. Bates","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005164","url":null,"abstract":"Damage and disruption from flooding have rapidly escalated over recent decades. Knowing who and what is at risk, how these risks are changing, and what is driving these changes is of immense importance to flood management and policy. Accurate predictions of flood risk are also critical to public safety. However, many high-profile research studies reporting risks at national and global scales rely upon a significant oversimplification of how floods behave—as a level pool—an approach known as bathtub modeling that is avoided in flood management practice due to known biases (e.g., >200% error in flood area) compared to physics-based modeling. With publicity by news media, findings that would likely not be trusted by flood management professionals are thus widely communicated to policy makers and the public, scientific credibility is put at risk, and maladaptation becomes more likely. Here, we call upon researchers to abandon the practice of bathtub modeling in flood risk studies, and for those involved in the peer-review process to ensure the conclusions of impact analyses are consistent with the limitations of the assumed flood physics. We document biases and uncertainties from bathtub modeling in both coastal and inland geographies, and we present examples of physics-based modeling approaches suited to large-scale applications. Reducing biases and uncertainties in flood hazard estimates will sharpen scientific understanding of changing risks, better serve the needs of policy makers, enable news media to more objectively report present and future risks to the public, and better inform adaptation planning.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005164","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142859879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Disentangling Spatio-Temporal Impacts of Multiple Environmental Factors on the Global Discharge Regime 多重环境因子对全球排放格局的时空影响

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-12-03 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004267

Tinh Vu, Jens Kiesel, Björn Guse, Sami Domisch, Nicola Fohrer

{"title":"Disentangling Spatio-Temporal Impacts of Multiple Environmental Factors on the Global Discharge Regime","authors":"Tinh Vu, Jens Kiesel, Björn Guse, Sami Domisch, Nicola Fohrer","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004267","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004267","url":null,"abstract":"Global discharge regimes are strongly affected by multiple environmental drivers. It remains a challenge to relate their contributions and complex spatio-temporal cause-effect chains to a given time and location. To disentangle these relationships, we combined 12 environmental variables with changes in more than 25,000 discharge time series globally and identified the variable importance across climate zones using random forest analyses. The results show that (a) about two-thirds of the global catchments experienced significant changes in discharge between 1980s and 1990s and (b) more than 80% of the basins with new dams built during the study period have experienced changes, twice as many as basins without dams. Furthermore, (c) most environmental variables were subject to significant changes, especially precipitation, temperature and urban land cover; (d) strong changes in the discharge regime were mostly associated with precipitation, followed by land cover changes, and (e) impacts of water infrastructure are dominant in basins with weak evidence of change in discharge. Our findings highlight the contribution of each individual environmental factor on global discharge regimes and can be used to inform water-related studies and global modeling efforts in the future.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004267","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142764089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0