Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Antarctic Biosecurity Policy Effectively Manages the Rates of Alien Introductions","authors":"Rachel I. Leihy,&nbsp;Melodie A. McGeoch,&nbsp;David A. Clarke,&nbsp;Lou Peake,&nbsp;Yehezkel Buba,&nbsp;Jonathan Belmaker,&nbsp;Steven L. Chown","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005405","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Reducing the rates and impacts of biological invasions is a major policy goal of international biodiversity agreements. Yet the extent to which this goal is being achieved and the agreements hence successful in this respect remains unclear. Here we use a comprehensive record of alien species introduction in the terrestrial Antarctic, including its surrounding Southern Ocean Islands, spanning 115 years (1900–2015), to quantify the impact of biosecurity policy on alien species introduction rates in the region, where invasive alien species are a primary environmental conservation threat and management priority. We show that although many parts of the Antarctic have been colonized by non-indigenous taxa, recent rates of introduction appear to be slowing or static in most parts, compared with increases in the past. Our results vindicate the regional Antarctic focus on biosecurity measures, but also demonstrate the need for stricter enforcement due to rapid socio-environmental changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005405","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Grain for Green Program to Grassland Might Lead to Carbon Sink Leakage in the Loess Plateau","authors":"Y. Q. Ma,&nbsp;J. H. Li,&nbsp;W. Cao,&nbsp;L. Huang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005261","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005261","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Grain for Green Program (GFGP), China's most famous ecological program, has become the main driver of carbon sink increases. However, the potential of the carbon sink effect still lacks scenario-based systematic estimation. By backdating the GFGP carbon sink increase in the Loess Plateau (LP) over the past 20 years, we forecast and reveal the spatial distribution of the carbon sink and the contribution of the GFGP in the “Double Carbon Target” years under three scenarios. Our results showed that places restored to forests (GFGP-Forest) will always lead to a carbon sink increase by (33.62 Tg C for 2000–2020) 0.78–1.09 Tg C and 1.29–2.13 Tg C in 2030 and 2060, respectively. However, the places restored to grasslands (GFGP-Grassland) will lead to an increase for 2000–2020 (72.52 Tg C), but a decrease in 2030 and 2060 (0.89–9.95 Tg C and 7.42–11.18 Tg C). This conversion is due to the combination of the decrease of the Net Primary Productivity and the increase of the heterotrophic respiration in the future, which indicates that the restoration programs involved in converting croplands into grasslands will severely decrease the carbon sink benefits and potential. In summary, it is essential to correctly quantify the carbon contribution in the LP resulting from the GFGP, and properly manage to augment the carbon sink from the GFGP-Forest and avoid the carbon source of GFGP-Grassland in the future. Our results highlight the hidden danger of leaking carbon sink of grasslands in a typical semi-arid region under future climate-changing conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005261","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact-Based Thresholds for Investigation of High-Tide Flooding in the United States","authors":"Christopher G. Piecuch,&nbsp;Sarah B. Das,&nbsp;Levi Gorrell,&nbsp;Sönke Dangendorf,&nbsp;Benjamin D. Hamlington,&nbsp;Philip R. Thompson,&nbsp;Thomas Wahl","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005850","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005850","url":null,"abstract":"<p>High-tide flooding—minor, disruptive coastal inundation—is expected to become more frequent as sea levels rise. However, quantifying just how quickly high-tide flooding rates are changing, and whether some places experience more high-tide flooding than others, is challenging. To quantify trends in high-tide flooding from tide-gauge observations, flood thresholds—elevations above which flooding begins—must be specified. Past studies of high-tide flooding in the United States have used different data sets and approaches for specifying flood thresholds, only some of which directly relate to coastal impacts, which has lead to sometimes conflicting and ambiguous results. Here we present a novel method for quantifying, with uncertainty, high-tide flooding thresholds along the United States coast based on sparsely available impact-based flood thresholds. We use those newly modeled thresholds to make an updated assessment of changes in high-tide flooding across the United States over the past few decades. From 1990–2000 to 2010–2020, high-tide flooding rates almost certainly (probability <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>P</mi>\u0000 <mo>&gt;</mo>\u0000 <mn>99</mn>\u0000 <mi>%</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $P &gt; 99%$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>) increased along the United States East Coast, Gulf Coast, California, and Pacific Islands, while they very likely <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>(</mo>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>P</mi>\u0000 <mo>=</mo>\u0000 <mn>93</mn>\u0000 <mi>%</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <mo>)</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $(P=93%)$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> decreased along Alaska during that time; significant changes in high-tide flooding rates between the two decades were not detected in Oregon, Washington, and the Caribbean. Averaging spatially, we find that high-tide flooding rates probably <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>(</mo>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>P</mi>\u0000 <mo>=</mo>\u0000 <mn>85</mn>\u0000 <mi>%</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <mo>)</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $(P=85%)$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> more than doubled nationally between 1990–2000 and 2010–2020. Our approach lays a foundation for future studies to more accurately model high-tide flood thresholds and trends along the global coastline.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005850","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Thank You to Our 2024 Reviewers","authors":"Kelly Caylor,&nbsp;John Abatzoglou,&nbsp;Kirsten de Beurs,&nbsp;Gonéri Le Cozannet,&nbsp;Carole Dalin,&nbsp;Noah S. Diffenbaugh,&nbsp;Dabo Guan,&nbsp;Robert E. Kopp,&nbsp;Jesse Kroll,&nbsp;Justin Mankin,&nbsp;Ashok Mishra,&nbsp;Vimal Mishra,&nbsp;Jennifer Murphy,&nbsp;Michael Puma,&nbsp;Patrick M. Reed,&nbsp;Maria Cristina Rulli,&nbsp;Anna Trugman,&nbsp;Xin Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006299","url":null,"abstract":"<p>On behalf of the journal, AGU, and the scientific community, we, the editors of Earth's Future, are delighted to publish the names of the 1,061 peer reviewers who provided 1,642 reviews for our journal in 2024 (italicized names have contributed three or more reviews). Your diligent efforts to provide timely comments on our submissions have significantly improved the manuscripts and elevated the scientific rigor of future research. As a unique transdisciplinary journal, Earth's Future delves into the state of the planet and its inhabitants, sustainable and resilient societies, the science of the Anthropocene, and predictions of our shared future through research articles, reviews, and commentaries. In the face of observed and anticipated global environmental and climatic changes, the need for high-quality scientific theories, assessments, and projections about the future of our planet has never been more pressing. To safeguard research integrity in this crucial area, we rely on our reviewers' expertise and selfless cooperation. We extend our heartfelt thanks to each of the individuals listed below for their contributions to our journal and the broader scientific discourse. Your dedication is immensely appreciated.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006299","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Skill Assessment Framework for the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project","authors":"Nina Rynne,&nbsp;Camilla Novaglio,&nbsp;Julia Blanchard,&nbsp;Daniele Bianchi,&nbsp;Villy Christensen,&nbsp;Marta Coll,&nbsp;Jerome Guiet,&nbsp;Jeroen Steenbeek,&nbsp;Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz,&nbsp;Tyler D. Eddy,&nbsp;Cheryl Harrison,&nbsp;Olivier Maury,&nbsp;Kelly Ortega-Cisneros,&nbsp;Colleen M. Petrik,&nbsp;Derek P. Tittensor,&nbsp;Ryan F. Heneghan","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004868","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding climate change impacts on global marine ecosystems and fisheries requires complex marine ecosystem models, forced by global climate projections, that can robustly detect and project changes. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) uses an ensemble modeling approach to fill this crucial gap. Yet FishMIP does not have a standardised skill assessment framework to quantify the ability of member models to reproduce past observations and to guide model improvement. In this study, we apply a comprehensive model skill assessment framework to a subset of global FishMIP models that produce historical fisheries catches. We consider a suite of metrics and assess their utility in illustrating the models' ability to reproduce observed fisheries catches. Our findings reveal improvement in model performance at both global and regional (Large Marine Ecosystem) scales from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 simulation rounds. Our analysis underscores the importance of employing easily interpretable, relative skill metrics to estimate the capability of models to capture temporal variations, alongside absolute error measures to characterize shifts in the magnitude of these variations between models and across simulation rounds. The skill assessment framework developed and tested here provides a first objective assessment and a baseline of the FishMIP ensemble's skill in reproducing historical catch at the global and regional scale. This assessment can be further improved and systematically applied to test the reliability of FishMIP models across the whole model ensemble from future simulation rounds and include more variables like fish biomass or production.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004868","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143707573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate Adaptation for a Natural Atoll Island in the Maldives - Predicting the Long-Term Morphological Response of Coral Islands to Sea Level Rise and the Effect of Hazard Mitigation Strategies","authors":"F. E. Roelvink,&nbsp;G. Masselink,&nbsp;C. Stokes,&nbsp;R. T. McCall","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005576","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005576","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Coral atoll islands, common in (sub)tropical oceans, consist of low-lying accumulations of carbonate sediment produced by fringing coral reef systems and are of great socio-economic and ecological importance. Previous studies have predicted that many atoll islands will become uninhabitable before the end of this century due to sea level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding. However, the assumption that such islands are morphologically static has been challenged by observations and modeling that show the potential for overwashing and sediment deposition to maintain island freeboard. Reliable long-term predictions of island change and future flood risk, essential for adaptation planning, are, however, lacking. Here, we adopt a novel, efficient approach for modeling the long-term island response and illustrate the morphological response of an atoll island to future sea level rise and the effect of various adaptation measures. We demonstrate that wave-driven sediment deposition increases island (beach) crest freeboard. We find that the assumption of static island morphology leads to a significant increase in the predicted frequency of future island flooding compared to morphodynamically active islands. Reef adaptation measures were shown to modify the inshore wave energy, influencing the equilibrium island crest height and therefore the long-term morphological response of the island, while beach restoration mainly delays the island's response. Accounting for long-term natural island dynamics, including the morphodynamic feedback from adaptation measures, offers more realistic projections of future flood risk compared to current static island model predictions. These local projections of island response can serve as decision support tools for climate adaptation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005576","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143717251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increased Phosphorus Losses in the Food System in China and Region-Specific Mitigation Strategies to Ensure Losses Below Safe Limits","authors":"Jichen Zhou,&nbsp;Wim de Vries,&nbsp;Lin Ma,&nbsp;Xiaoqiang Jiao,&nbsp;Kai Zhang,&nbsp;Yang Lyu,&nbsp;Zed Rengel,&nbsp;Fusuo Zhang,&nbsp;Jianbo Shen","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004907","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004907","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Sustainable phosphorus (P) resource management is crucial for food security and environmental sustainability. Overuse of P in intensive cropping systems has led to severe eutrophication problems. Here, we examined the trends and driving factors of (a) P losses from the food chain in 31 provinces in China over the period 1980–2016 and (b) predicted 2030 losses under different scenarios using the NUFER model and the Geographical Detector model. The P losses increased 5-fold between 1980 and 2016. Population density and livestock density are the main forces driving P losses. Large spatial variability exists in P losses across the country, with Central South and Southeast China regions as the hotspot areas. The scenario analysis showed that reduction of P pollution below safe levels can be achieved in most Chinese provinces through improved nutrient management adapted to site conditions. In low-risk regions, priority should be given to reducing mineral P fertilizer input and P losses in cropping system, while avoiding crop yield decline. In medium-risk regions, the focus should be on reconnecting livestock and crop production to enhance P recycling. In high-risk regions, comprehensive P management measures should be implemented across the entire food chain, including crop production, animal production, food processing, and human consumption systems. Specific actions include reducing livestock density, increasing fertilizer application taxes, improving food processing technologies, and adjusting dietary structures. The findings are critical to support policies for achieving region-specific sustainable P resource management across China.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004907","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying CO2 and Non-CO2 Contributions to Climate Change Under 1.5°C and 2°C Adaptive Emission Scenarios","authors":"Donghyun Lee,&nbsp;Sarah N. Sparrow,&nbsp;Matteo Willeit,&nbsp;Paulo Ceppi,&nbsp;Myles R. Allen","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005580","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005580","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The individual contributions of various human-induced forcings under scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement targets are highly uncertain. To quantify this uncertainty, we analyze three types of models with physical parameter perturbed large ensembles under global warming levels of 1.5 and 2.0°C. The scenarios use adaptive CO₂ emissions, while non-CO₂ emissions are prescribed. The residual emission budgets in the scenarios are measured in terms of CO₂ forcing equivalent (CO₂-fe). Our simulations quantify approximately 0.8 (0.2–1.3 for a 90% confidence interval) and 1.9 (0.9–3.0) TtCO₂-fe for the 1.5 and 2.0°C targets by the end of the 21st century. About 37.5% (73.7%) of the budget for 1.5°C (2.0°C) originates from the CO₂ emission pathways, highlighting the importance of non-CO₂ forcings. Aerosols dominate the uncertainty in non-CO₂ contributions to global responses in both temperature and precipitation. Our modeling results underline the need to constrain the response to each climate forcing, particularly aerosol, to build an accurate mitigation and adaptation plan under the pledges of the Paris Agreement. Moreover, we demonstrate robust differences in global and regional temperature and precipitation responses between the higher and lower CO₂ emission scenarios, highlighting the significance of carbon neutrality.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005580","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microbially-Mediated Soil Carbon-Nitrogen Dynamics in Response to Future Soil Moisture Change","authors":"Wanyu Li,&nbsp;Gangsheng Wang,&nbsp;Zirui Mu,&nbsp;Shanshan Qi,&nbsp;Shuhao Zhou,&nbsp;Daifeng Xiang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005521","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The interactions between soil carbon and nitrogen (C-N) processes with environmental factors, particularly soil moisture, are critical to maintaining soil ecosystem functions. However, the lagged effects of future change in soil moisture on soil C-N dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we employed the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition model to simulate the long-term impacts of future soil moisture variation on soil C-N dynamics using the standardized soil moisture index (SSI) across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our results demonstrated that soil C-N dynamics exhibited both lagged and cumulative responses to moisture fluctuations over extended periods. Active microbes were closely associated with short-term (3-month) change in soil moisture, whereas soil organic C (SOC) and total N (TN) exhibited stronger correlations over extended periods (72 months). Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, SOC and TN decreased in wet conditions but increased during droughts, with increases of 28.9% and 13.1%, respectively, under extreme drought conditions. We found that the active microbial biomass was significantly more sensitive to soil moisture variation than total microbial biomass, especially under extreme drought conditions. Furthermore, microbes and enzymes were key drivers of soil C-N transformations, with soil enzymes displaying the highest correlation with SSI (nonlinear correlation coefficient based on mutual information = 0.81). This study establishes a foundational relationship between soil C-N variables and soil moisture, accounting for lag effects, to enhance our understanding of the complex responses of these variables under future climate change scenarios.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005521","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes in Compound Extreme Events and Their Impacts on Cropland Productivity in China, 1985–2019","authors":"Zejin Liu,&nbsp;Limin Jiao,&nbsp;Xihong Lian","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005038","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While the influence of compound extreme events is gaining attention with advancing extreme climate research, the variations in their impacts on regional crop production require further exploration. Here, we primarily analyze the changes in compound hot-dry events and compound hot-wet events in China from 1985 to 2019, based on meteorological observations from 686 stations. Then, their contributions to losses in cropland net primary productivity (CNPP) are identified using the extreme gradient boosting and Shapley additive explanations models. Results indicate that compound extreme events have become increasingly frequent, persistent, and severe over the past 35 years. With the increasing risks of compound extreme events, greater CNPP losses are observed in the northern regions compared to the southern regions. Throughout the growing season, CNPP losses caused by compound extreme events initially increase, peak in summer, and then gradually decrease. CNPP losses in China are primarily influenced by compound hot-dry events. From north to south, the events dominating CNPP losses shift sequentially from compound daytime hot and dry events to compound day-night hot and dry events, and finally to compound nighttime hot and dry events. This study explores the threats posed by compound extreme events to regional crop production and provides new insights into extreme climate risks in China, supporting climate-adaptive agricultural development.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005038","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}