Earths Future最新文献_第10页

Reduced Anthropogenic Aerosols Reveal Increased Heatwaves Driven by Climate Warming 人为气溶胶减少表明气候变暖导致热浪增加

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006516

Jia Wei, Weiguang Wang, Adriaan J. Teuling, Jianyun Zhang, Guoqing Wang, Junliang Jin, Xiaoyin Liu, Mingzhu Cao, Hongbin Li, Liyan Yang, Shuo Wang

{"title":"Reduced Anthropogenic Aerosols Reveal Increased Heatwaves Driven by Climate Warming","authors":"Jia Wei, Weiguang Wang, Adriaan J. Teuling, Jianyun Zhang, Guoqing Wang, Junliang Jin, Xiaoyin Liu, Mingzhu Cao, Hongbin Li, Liyan Yang, Shuo Wang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006516","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006516","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the contributions of anthropogenic climate forcings to heatwave intensification is essential for evaluating mitigation strategies. While greenhouse gas influences on temperature extremes are well established, the impacts of other anthropogenic forcings, particularly aerosols, remain inadequately characterized. Here, we quantify the distinct contributions of greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols, and natural forcings to extreme heatwave metrics from the pre-industrial period. Globally, changes in the duration of heatwave events and cumulative heat are +2.77 ± 0.85 days and +1.76 ± 0.31°C2 attributed to greenhouse gases, and −1.10 ± 0.34 days and −0.85 ± 0.14°C2 due to anthropogenic aerosols, respectively, over the past 3 decades relative to pre-industrial levels. This indicates that aerosols substantially masked greenhouse gas effects until the 1990s. Under current mitigation policies, declining aerosol emissions have exacerbated heatwave intensification at rates of +1.07 ± 0.32 days decade−1 and +0.47 ± 0.09°C2 decade−1 for duration and cumulative heat respectively, exceeding the intensification attributable to greenhouse gases alone. Heatwave intensification has been driven primarily by reduced cloud cover and increased shortwave radiation resulting from weakening aerosol forcing, especially in Central North America and Europe. However, the regional climate changes driven by greenhouse gases and aerosols exhibit spatial heterogeneity, highlighting the necessity for geographically targeted mitigation strategies.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006516","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144551061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rising Global Elderly Health Inequalities in the Face of Temperature Extremes 面对极端温度，全球老年人健康不平等现象日益加剧

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006000

Yuan Qi, Bo Huang, Chris Webster

{"title":"Rising Global Elderly Health Inequalities in the Face of Temperature Extremes","authors":"Yuan Qi, Bo Huang, Chris Webster","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006000","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006000","url":null,"abstract":"The elderly population, being particularly vulnerable, is expected to face increased life-threatening risk due to climate change, especially in low-income regions, thereby exacerbating global inequalities. Here we developed the Elderly Mortality Risk Index (EMRI) to sufficiently understand the intricate relationships among aging, climate vulnerability, and elderly health risk from temperature extremes. Our analysis shows that the cumulative intensity and duration of global temperature extremes has increased by an average of 36% from 1990 to 2020 and is projected to rise by 52% over the next 30 years. The Global South, inhabited by 10% of the world's elderly (aged 69+), bears 53% of the EMRI during the 60-year period. Low-income regions experience the highest EMRI, averaging 4% more than other regions. Projections for 2021–2050 indicate that the global EMRI will peak in 2033 before gradually declining. South Asia (SA) and Southeast Asia are expected to be the most severely affected regions, with averaged EMRI 8% higher than those in the lowest-risk regions. When focusing on age-specific groups (69+), the global EMRI will be 59% higher, the EMRI disparity is projected to be 13 times greater between SA and the lowest-risk regions, and 80 times greater between high-income and low-income regions, than when considering all-age group. Our findings highlight the urgent need for targeted climate adaptation strategies and enhanced gerontological support to address the growing health challenges in an aging and warming world.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006000","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144550991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessment of Global Dengue Transmission Risk Under Future Climate Scenarios 未来气候情景下全球登革热传播风险评估

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006154

Fengliu Feng, Yuxia Ma, Yuhan Zhao, Zongrui Liu, Rentao Zhang, Ziyue Wan

{"title":"Assessment of Global Dengue Transmission Risk Under Future Climate Scenarios","authors":"Fengliu Feng, Yuxia Ma, Yuhan Zhao, Zongrui Liu, Rentao Zhang, Ziyue Wan","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006154","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006154","url":null,"abstract":"Dengue is a climate-sensitive mosquito-borne infectious disease with a rapidly increasing incidence and global transmission. Climate change alters the suitability of mosquito vectors, affecting viral transmission. We assessed the global dengue transmission potential and suitable months under future climate scenarios by integrating the mosquito-borne virus suitability index (Index P) with temperature and humidity projections from 12 global climate models. A substantial expansion of dengue risk zones from tropical to temperate regions was projected. The magnitude and pace of dengue risk escalation in China and the U.S. far exceed other temperate regions, with a considerable increase in at-risk population and exposed land areas. In contrast, Europe exhibits a more delayed and moderate increase in dengue risk. In the SSP245 scenario for the 2050s, high dengue suitability zones are prominently located in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa with emergent areas in southern North America and East Africa. By 2100, these zones expand to southern China and northern Australia. Under the SSP585 high-emission scenario, the global dengue risk landscape shifts dramatically, with extensive risk zones emerging in the southeastern United States, China, and southern Europe, while some tropical regions such as Brazil and India experience a notable decline in transmission suitability due to extreme heat stress. By extending Index P to long-term projections, this study uncovers both underappreciated early surges in temperate regions and unexpected declines in overheated tropics. These insights are critical for improving early warning systems in newly exposed populations.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006154","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144558233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate Change Increases Evaporative and Crop Irrigation Demand in North America 气候变化增加了北美的蒸发和作物灌溉需求

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF005931

Emily L. Williams, John T. Abatzoglou

{"title":"Climate Change Increases Evaporative and Crop Irrigation Demand in North America","authors":"Emily L. Williams, John T. Abatzoglou","doi":"10.1029/2025EF005931","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF005931","url":null,"abstract":"Across North America, warmer temperatures have increased reference evapotranspiration (ETo), taxing water resources. This problem is especially pronounced for semi-arid regions with large amounts of irrigated agriculture, such as California's Central Valley. In this region, increased ETo has increased irrigation demand, but the role of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) in driving this increase has not yet been quantified. Here, we quantified the influence of ACC on ETo and how these changes have translated into increased irrigation demand. We calculated observational ETo from ERA5-Land and counterfactual ETo that removes the forced changes simulated by 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 from the observational records. At the scale of North America, we found that ACC drove a 64 mm increase in annual ETo from 1980 to 2022, compared to the observed 54 mm increase. The largest observed increases in ETo were found in the southwestern and central regions, where ACC has likely exacerbated trends linked to natural climate variability. The largest ACC contributor to increased ETo was increased vapor pressure deficit, while decreased solar radiation has tempered increased ETo. Finally, we found that ACC has increased annual crop irrigation demand in the Central Valley by 0.76 km3 during 1980–2022, with cumulative increased irrigation demand of 9.2 km3, equivalent to ∼11% of the region's groundwater loss during this time. Our findings suggest that ACC is accelerating demand for water in this already water-limited region, and this phenomenon is likely occurring in other semi-arid agricultural regions of North America.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF005931","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Key Environmental and Ecological Variables of Wetland CH4 and CO2 Fluxes Change With Warming 湿地CH4和CO2通量的关键环境生态变量随变暖的变化

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005751

Mengze Li, Fa Li, Avni Malhotra, Sara H. Knox, Rafael Stern, Robert B. Jackson

{"title":"Key Environmental and Ecological Variables of Wetland CH4 and CO2 Fluxes Change With Warming","authors":"Mengze Li, Fa Li, Avni Malhotra, Sara H. Knox, Rafael Stern, Robert B. Jackson","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005751","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005751","url":null,"abstract":"Wetlands are important ecosystems for the global carbon cycle, impacting regional and global methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) budgets. This study examines how environmental and ecological variables impact wetland CH4 flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) across 17 sites globally. We also quantified the importance of variables for each wetland type and site at monthly scale under normal and warm temperatures using dominance analysis. We identified soil and air temperature (TS, TA, respectively) as key variables influencing wetland CH4, and latent heat (LE) and shortwave radiation (SW) for NEE under normal and warm conditions. However, the importance of some variables shifted with warming. For predicting the variability of wetland CH4 flux under warming, gross primary productivity (GPP) and LE, replacing wind direction (WD), were dominant variables for tropical swamps, while NEE was important for high-latitude fens and bogs under warm temperatures. For wetland NEE, the role of TA and TS decreased across all wetland types with warming, while vapor pressure deficit (VPD) became more important for mid and high-latitude wetlands. Our results reveal the complex responses of wetland carbon flux to environmental and ecological variables with warming and provide new insights into improving wetland models by incorporating additional variables and accounting for the changing roles of variables in carbon flux under warming.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005751","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144367614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Indian Ocean Dipole Impacts on Eastern African Short Rains Across Observations, Historical Simulations and Future Projections 印度洋偶极子对东非短雨的影响：观测、历史模拟和未来预测

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005219

Yiling Zheng, Chi-Yung Tam, Matthew Collins

{"title":"Indian Ocean Dipole Impacts on Eastern African Short Rains Across Observations, Historical Simulations and Future Projections","authors":"Yiling Zheng, Chi-Yung Tam, Matthew Collins","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005219","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005219","url":null,"abstract":"Eastern African “short rains” (October–December) are significantly influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with increased rainfall during positive IOD events and dryness during negative IOD events. Most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models overestimate the short-rain response to IOD events in Eastern Africa, especially during negative events. This is due to enhanced zonal moisture transport anomalies, mainly related to amplified IOD intensity and the westward extension of the IOD eastern core. Mean-state precipitation biases further contribute to overestimated short rains, traced back to the mean-state positive IOD-like biases. Under global warming, the contrasting short-rain responses to IOD in the Horn of Africa and Southeastern Africa are primarily driven by the westward-shifting IOD circulation. Enhanced impacts in the Horn of Africa are driven by stronger IOD-related zonal winds and the more humid mean-state atmosphere which is attributed to the IOD-like warming pattern. In contrast, weakened impacts in Southeastern Africa are associated with anomalous meridional wind changes. Additionally, due to more extreme negative IOD events, the frequency as well as severity of droughts in the Horn of Africa are projected to increase. These findings provide valuable insights into Eastern Africa's climate dynamics and inform climate adaptation strategies.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005219","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144323645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Increasing Cumulative Impacts of Droughts Under Climate Change Does Not Alter the Ecosystem Resilience in India 气候变化下日益增加的干旱累积影响不会改变印度生态系统的恢复能力

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005888

Vijaykumar Bejagam, Ashutosh Sharma

{"title":"Increasing Cumulative Impacts of Droughts Under Climate Change Does Not Alter the Ecosystem Resilience in India","authors":"Vijaykumar Bejagam, Ashutosh Sharma","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005888","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005888","url":null,"abstract":"Drought significantly impacts plant carbon uptake, a critical process for regulating atmospheric CO2. With the intensification of droughts under climate change, understanding ecosystem responses to these events is essential. In this study, we analyzed the impacts of droughts on Net Primary Productivity (NPP) in India over the 21st century. We tested two hypotheses: (a) increasing drought intensity and frequency will exacerbate NPP reductions, and (b) climate warming will diminish ecosystem resilience, leading to greater NPP reductions per drought event. To evaluate ecosystem responses, we employed a Multi-Dimensional Resilience Index (MDRI), which integrates resistance and recovery time to quantify resilience. Our analysis revealed a substantial increase in extreme and moderate droughts, while mild droughts remained stable. Extreme droughts were projected to cause NPP reductions three times greater under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and six times greater under the SSP5-8.5 scenario compared to the baseline period (1850–2014). Ecosystems in the Western Ghats and lower Himalayan regions demonstrated moderate resilience due to prolonged recovery times and moderate resistance. Conversely, ecosystems in Northeastern India exhibited high resilience, characterized by strong resistance and shorter recovery periods. Interestingly, while resistance exhibited an increasing trend, likely influenced by carbon fertilization, recovery times showed a declining trend, potentially linked to rising temperatures. These findings do not support the second hypothesis, as no significant changes in overall ecosystem resilience were observed due to compensatory effects between resistance and recovery. This study can inform conservation strategies aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of drought on carbon cycling.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005888","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144315334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Characterizing the Effects of Policy Instruments on Cost and Deployment Trajectories of Direct Air Capture in the U.S. Energy System 表征政策工具对美国能源系统中直接空气捕获的成本和部署轨迹的影响

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF005924

Franklyn Kanyako, Michael Craig

{"title":"Characterizing the Effects of Policy Instruments on Cost and Deployment Trajectories of Direct Air Capture in the U.S. Energy System","authors":"Franklyn Kanyako, Michael Craig","doi":"10.1029/2025EF005924","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF005924","url":null,"abstract":"Capturing and sequestering carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere via large-scale direct air capture (DAC) deployment is critical for achieving net-zero emissions. Large-scale DAC deployment, though, will require significant cost reductions in part through policy and investment support. This study evaluates the impact of policy interventions on DAC cost reduction by integrating energy system optimization and learning curve models. We examine how three policy instruments—incremental deployment, accelerated deployment, and R&D-driven innovation—impact DAC learning investment, which is the total investment required until the technology achieves cost parity with conventional alternatives or target cost. Our findings show that while incremental deployment demands significant learning investment, R&D-driven innovation is considerably cheaper at cost reduction. Under a baseline 8% learning rate, incremental deployment may require up to $998 billion to reduce costs from $1,154 to $400/tCO2, while accelerated deployment support could save approximately $7 billion on that investment. In contrast, R&D support achieves equivalent cost reductions at less than half the investment of incremental deployment. However, the effectiveness of R&D intervention varies with learning rates and R&D breakthroughs. R&D yields net benefits in all cases except at extremely low breakthroughs (5%) and very high learning rates (20%), where they are slightly more expensive. For learning rates below 20%, R&D provides net benefits even at minimal breakthroughs. These findings underscore the need for comprehensive public policy strategies that balance near-term deployment incentives with long-term innovation investments if we are to ensure DACS becomes a viable technology for mitigating climate change.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF005924","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144315218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Wetland Gain and Loss in the Mississippi River Bird-Foot Delta 密西西比河鸟足三角洲湿地的得失

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005003

Jiangjie Yang, Zhijun Dai, Xuefei Mei, Yaying Lou, Sergio Fagherazzi

{"title":"Wetland Gain and Loss in the Mississippi River Bird-Foot Delta","authors":"Jiangjie Yang, Zhijun Dai, Xuefei Mei, Yaying Lou, Sergio Fagherazzi","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005003","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005003","url":null,"abstract":"The Mississippi River Bird-foot Delta (MRBD) has long been at risk of deterioration due to Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR), yet information on historical spatial distribution in wetland gain and loss remains limited. Using a Random Forest algorithm in Google Earth Engine, we extract wetland area from multiple Landsat images spanning 1990–2022. Data are integrated with sediment load, wave dynamics, sea level, and surface elevation to analyze drivers of wetland gain and loss. Results indicate a minor net change of only 1.21 km2, with a total gain of 160.83 km2 and a total loss of 159.62 km2. Overall stability of wetland area masks significant regional variability, with notable wetland expansion in the interior and substantial losses along eastern and southeastern margins. Sediment diversion toward the interior of the delta lead to distributaries narrowing (Main Pass and Pass a Loutre) that further hindered sediment-laden water transport into deltaic margins. Wetland dynamics along the edges were closely linked to wave action, with large-scale retreat in northern (4.0 ± 9.9 m/yr), eastern (58.0 ± 48.2 m/yr), and southeastern (38.6 ± 15.8 m/yr) regions, while progradation in the southern (13.6 ± 10.1 m/yr) and western areas (7.4 ± 19.4 m/yr). Fluvial sediments significantly impact wetland growth with 1-year lag. Vertical accretion of wetlands exceeds RSLR, indicating equilibrium along vertical dimension but are affected by lateral dynamics driven by wave and fluvial sediment inputs. In conclusion, the MRBD is abandoning the distal parts to wave erosion, while focusing on building wetlands in the interior to create a more compact delta.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144315217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Response of China's Terrestrial Carbon Uptake to Shift in Nitrogen Deposition 中国陆地碳吸收对氮沉降变化的响应

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004946

L. Zhang, P. Li, G. Yu, H. He, Y. Jia, J. Zhu, W. Ju, C. Zhang, X. Ren, T. Wang, Y. Zheng, H. WU

{"title":"Response of China's Terrestrial Carbon Uptake to Shift in Nitrogen Deposition","authors":"L. Zhang, P. Li, G. Yu, H. He, Y. Jia, J. Zhu, W. Ju, C. Zhang, X. Ren, T. Wang, Y. Zheng, H. WU","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004946","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF004946","url":null,"abstract":"China has experienced a shift in nitrogen (N) deposition from an upward trend since 1980s to stabilized since 2001–2005 and decline in recent years due to N management. Global atmospheric chemical transport models tend to underestimate the magnitude of N deposition in China and fail to reproduce such a shift. How do underestimation and trend shift in N deposition influence China's terrestrial carbon (C) uptake remains unclear. Here we used a new N deposition data set and three independent methods to investigate the effect of N deposition on terrestrial C uptake in China. We found that the magnitude and trend of China's terrestrial C sink induced by N deposition (∆CNdep) would be underestimated during 1990–2015 when using commonly used global atmospheric N deposition data sets. Despite the decrease in N deposition trend, the increasing rate of ∆CNdep changed from 4.42 Tg C yr−2 in 1990–2005 to 5.64 Tg C yr−2 in 2006–2015, which was dominated by subtropical and tropical monsoon region. The interactive effect of N deposition with other environmental factors has a greater impact on the trend of ∆CNdep than direct effect. Our results highlight the rising terrestrial C uptake as N deposition stabilizes and the crucial role of interaction mechanisms among global change factors in assessing the impact of declining reactive N inputs on China's future land C sinks under C neutrality targets.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004946","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144309015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0