Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection","authors":"Kendall Mongird,&nbsp;Kerem Ziya Akdemir,&nbsp;Cameron Bracken,&nbsp;Casey D. Burleyson,&nbsp;Travis Thurber,&nbsp;Chris R. Vernon,&nbsp;Mengqi Zhao,&nbsp;Jennie S. Rice","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007725","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007725","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The US Western Interconnection is facing unprecedented challenges in the form of less predictable peak energy demand, increasingly diverse generating resources, and fast-growing loads due to the onset of artificial intelligence, hyperscale computing, and electrification. Projecting where future generation may be developed is critical to maintaining a robust and resilient electric grid under this mounting uncertainty and variability. Using an integrated multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that links a human-Earth systems model, an hourly load model, a geospatial power plant siting model, and an hourly grid operations model, we evaluate the power plant landscape evolution under eight alternative futures between 2020 and 2055. These futures represent a wide but plausible range of atmospheric conditions, emissions constraints, and economic, technological, and population growth assumptions. We find that local-level development can vary substantially both by generation type and capacity buildout across these futures. Specific regions of the Western Interconnection are projected to see large amounts of capacity development regardless of the future scenario given local siting drivers. We additionally determine that projected power plant locations are more heavily influenced by the cost to interconnect to the electric grid than the revenue driven by locational energy prices.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007725","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148647775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate Constraints on the Methane‒Carbon Efficiency of Global Wetlands: Spatiotemporal Drivers and Future Projections","authors":"Tingting Zhu,&nbsp;Junjie Li,&nbsp;Junji Yuan,&nbsp;Weixin Ding","doi":"10.1029/2025EF008003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF008003","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wetlands play an important role in the growth rate of atmospheric methane (CH₄) concentrations, with gross primary productivity (GPP) serving as a key proxy for predicting CH₄ fluxes, yet the efficiency with which photosynthetic carbon is associated with CH₄ fluxes remains poorly quantified at the global scale. Here, we integrated multiple GPP products with CH₄ data sets to evaluate global CH₄/GPP ratios, as an apparent ecosystem-level metric of methane–carbon coupling. We found striking spatial heterogeneity, with the highest CH₄/GPP ratios in northern high-latitude and tropical wetlands, and much lower values in some temperate regions. Using a random forest model, all variables explained 81% of the global variance in CH₄/GPP, with temperature being the strongest predictor. Future projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios suggested a relatively stable global mean CH₄/GPP ratio, likely reflecting compensating regional changes and intrinsic climatic constraints on methane–carbon coupling. Despite this stability, scenario-dependent differences became apparent, with higher ratios under high-emission pathways. These results indicate that wetland methane–carbon coupling may be a spatially variable and climate-sensitive property. Incorporating such relationships into Earth System Models may help reduce uncertainties in projecting wetland carbon–climate feedbacks under future climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF008003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148647816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying Key Uncertainties and Drivers of Future Resource Security Outcomes Through a Multisector Scenario Ensemble","authors":"Gi Joo Kim,&nbsp;Brian O’Neill,&nbsp;Jennifer Morris,&nbsp;Marshall Wise,&nbsp;John Weyant,&nbsp;Jonathan Lamontagne","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007585","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007585","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Food, energy, and water security are key criteria in analyses of complex human-Earth system interactions but are rarely analyzed jointly in scenario analysis of global change. Here, we generate a scenario ensemble centered around these outcomes using a global-scale multisector model that simulates critical interactions across multiple sectors. We consider a wide range of future uncertainties in both physical and societal factors, including population, economics, alternative scenarios of future carbon intensity, and land conservation. We evaluate each scenario by computing both regional and subregional resource security outcomes and identify the uncertainties and key drivers that lead to the outcomes of interest. We find that lower-income subgroups face higher burdens and more uncertain outcomes, and that drivers of resource security outcomes are heterogeneous across regions. Ultimately, our approach can help identify scenarios that can facilitate high-priority research on resource security outcomes, especially in multisector contexts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007585","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148617027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From Risk Perception to Action: The Behavioral Forces Shaping Disaster Preparedness","authors":"I. Armaş,&nbsp;D. Dobre,&nbsp;A. C. Albulescu","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007679","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007679","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The study examines the behavioral forces spanning cognitive, social, and environmental determinants that transform disaster risk perception into tangible preparedness actions. The case study at hand focuses on Bucharest, the European capital with the highest seismic risk. The city has a history of impactful earthquakes, motivated by high physical and social vulnerability levels that overlap. Against this background, a two-wave cross-sectional study based on the extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) was performed in 2024 and 2025, aiming to identify patterns in the relationships among seismic risk perception, attitudes toward disaster preparedness, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, preparedness intention, and willingness to implement preparedness actions. In addition, the influence of demographic characteristics on preparedness intention was assessed based on a composite demographic index. Three different models were inferentially tested, revealing (a) the role of subjective norms in shaping preparedness intentions through their relationship with risk perception, (b) the role of attitude toward preparedness in strengthening subjective norms, and (c) the influence of demographic factors on attitudes toward preparedness. The relative importance of behavioral drivers varies with age: attitudes are more strongly associated with intention among younger participants, whereas subjective norms are more influential among older participants. Another highlight is that attitude predicts subjective norm but not intention to prepare. The observed between-sample differences are consistent with a pattern in which interpersonal subjective norms appear more salient than broader collective expectations, although no inference about temporal or societal change can be made.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007679","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148617029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reservoir Drought Resilience Under Future Warming Scenarios: Regional Disparities Across Heavily Regulated US Basins","authors":"Hisham Eldardiry,&nbsp;Ning Sun,&nbsp;Nathalie Voisin","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007984","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007984","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Reservoir drought, a form of hydrological drought, is characterized by abnormally low reservoir storage levels, reflecting combined impacts of natural water shortages and water management practices. Despite their profound impacts on water, energy, and agricultural sectors, systematic projections of how reservoir drought and resilience may evolve remain scarce. This study addresses this gap by quantifying shifts in reservoir drought signatures (onset, severity, duration, recovery and frequency) across five heavily regulated US basins under rising temperatures. By coupling atmosphere-land-river models with reservoir operations at ∼12-km resolution, we simulated multi-decadal reservoir storage dynamics and characterized drought signatures for individual reservoirs. We follow a no-adaptation scenario, holding water demands and operational rules fixed, to isolate warming-driven stress on reservoir systems under present-day management conditions. Our findings reveal significant regional and functional disparities in reservoir drought resilience under the scenarios of rising temperature. Reservoirs in the Texas-Gulf region are projected to become more resilient, while systems in the Upper Colorado and South Atlantic-Gulf regions face increased risk due to prolonged drought durations (increasing by ∼6–10 months) and slower recovery (with recovery times increasing by up to three-to fourfold). With respect to primary function, reservoirs used for irrigation and hydropower, particularly those with smaller storage capacity and lower degrees of regulation, are most susceptible to future drought stress. Overall, this study provides a novel continental-scale benchmark for reservoir droughts to support evolving multi-sectoral drought mitigation efforts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007984","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148616368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dominant Controls on Preferential Flow and Their Implications for Future Soil Water Fluxes","authors":"Bonan Li,&nbsp;Matthias Sprenger,&nbsp;Ryoko Araki,&nbsp;Rachel Keen,&nbsp;Caitlin M. Mayernik,&nbsp;William Rudisill,&nbsp;Hoori Ajami,&nbsp;Octavia Crompton,&nbsp;Daniel Giménez,&nbsp;Jannis Groh,&nbsp;Daniel Hirmas,&nbsp;Aaron N. Koop,&nbsp;Nitin Singh,&nbsp;Inge Wiekenkamp,&nbsp;Briana M. Wyatt,&nbsp;Tianfang Xu,&nbsp;Pamela L. Sullivan","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008296","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008296","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Soil water flow, particularly preferential flow (PF), is a critical control on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, including groundwater recharge, contaminant transport, and carbon cycling. However, it remains challenging to predict PF occurrence across large environmental gradients. Here, we developed a deep learning (DL) model to estimate event-scale soil water flow velocity and the probability of PF occurrence using high-frequency soil moisture and precipitation data from 33 sites across the National Ecological Observatory Network. The model demonstrated high skill in predicting the binary occurrence of PF (91% F1-score; 85% accuracy) but the performance was limited in predicting soil water velocity (<i>R</i>² = 0.31). We found that precipitation characteristics (duration, volume, and intensity) were the most important predictors for soil water velocity. Among the non-precipitation event variables, sand content showed relatively high predictive skill, though differences among non-event climate variables were generally modest. Lower sand content was associated with increased predicted soil water velocity, a finding that highlights the role of soil structure in producing more non-uniform flow, which contrasts with traditional uniform flow models. Projecting a reduced DL model under both moderate and high-emissions future climate scenarios (2060–2099 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), we found ∼7.3% increase under RCP4.5 and ∼15% under RCP8.5 of soil water velocities compared to the historical simulation, while modeled likelihood of PF changed little. These findings suggest climate change is not making PF more frequent, but it is making existing PF pathways more efficient with important consequences for associated nutrient and contaminant transport under climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008296","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148754095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Asynchronous Emergence of Water Scarcity Risks Amid Shifting Hydrological Regimes in High Mountain Asia","authors":"Ruiying Zhao,&nbsp;Yuheng Yang","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008373","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008373","url":null,"abstract":"<p>High Mountain Asia functions as a critical hydrological hub, supporting water security and the livelihoods of billions downstream. However, reliable assessments of future water availability remain limited because the contributions and future changes of individual runoff components have not been explicitly quantified. Here, we use a distributed hydrological model constrained by multisource observations to analyze runoff components and dynamics across 12 major basins. Our partitioning analysis shows that groundwater, which acts as a key subsurface storage and routing pathway for infiltrated precipitation and meltwater, accounts for 15.07% of total runoff, exceeding the combined contribution of glacier melt (5.60%) and snowmelt (4.46%). Anthropogenic aerosols exhibit a strong negative influence on runoff changes, largely offsetting greenhouse-gas-driven wetting, particularly in the arid northwest. By combining these hydroclimatic changes with demographic projections, we identify a marked mid-century turning point around 2060, when the population exposed to water scarcity reaches 1.04–1.51 billion; by 2100, the exposed population diverges to 0.72–1.94 billion across shared socioeconomic pathways. These risks are uneven across basins, with earlier emergence in inland basins and a later, larger peak in the Indus and Brahmaputra &amp; Ganges basins, underscoring the need for basin-specific transboundary actions that prioritize groundwater protection and demand management before mid-century.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008373","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148754217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Divergent Heat Assessments Across Thermal Stress and Sensation Metrics","authors":"Xinjie Huang,&nbsp;Qinqin Kong,&nbsp;Matthew Huber,&nbsp;Marialena Nikolopoulou,&nbsp;Zhi-Hua Wang,&nbsp;Peiyuan Li,&nbsp;Ariane Middel,&nbsp;Dan Li,&nbsp;Andreas Matzarakis,&nbsp;Jennifer K. Vanos,&nbsp;Jiyun Song,&nbsp;Gabriele Manoli,&nbsp;Anna Laura Pisello,&nbsp;Elie Bou-Zeid","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008395","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008395","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A large and growing body of literature has indicated potential inconsistencies in heat assessments due to the use of different heat stress indices (HSI). This divergence hinders the emergence of scientific consensus and impairs the development of public policy on a range of topics, including climate change impacts, public health guidance, and heat adaptation strategies. Beyond discrepancies among physically based HSI themselves, divergence may also arise between physical thermal stress and psychological thermal sensation; such deviation can delay active behavior adaptation measures but has rarely been examined. To explain these metric divergences, we first connect the different assessments of HSI to their varying sensitivities to meteorological drivers and introduce a clustering framework to guide their applications. We then identify spatiotemporal hotspots where sensation-based estimates diverge from HSI-based assessments, highlighting cases where reliance on sensation alone may increase risk. Particularly, nighttime humid heat in low-latitude coastal Asian cities is perceived as less risky than indicated by HSI due to a muted perception of high humidity impact and the absence of solar radiation that would strongly signal heat discomfort. These findings help elucidate inconsistent conclusions in the existing literature stemming from the use of different thermal metrics and localize spatiotemporal hotspots for targeted heat health warning systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008395","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148754243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Thresholds of Carbon and Nitrogen Emissions for Sustainable Development in China","authors":"Yi Zhou,&nbsp;Xin Xu,&nbsp;Xiuming Zhang,&nbsp;Baojing Gu","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007221","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007221","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The carbon and nitrogen cycles are central to climate regulation, ecosystem health, and food security, yet their integration into the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework remains limited. By using a Coupled Human and Natural Systems model, we quantify carbon and nitrogen emission thresholds to achieve related SDGs in China. We find that meeting carbon- and nitrogen-related SDGs requires reductions of 59% in greenhouse gas emissions and 50% and 56% in nitrogen emissions to air and water, respectively, relative to 2020 levels. Achieving these targets could deliver US$988 billion in societal benefits, six times the implementation cost, through yield promotion, improved public health, restored ecosystems, and climate change mitigation. Under current best practices, greenhouse gas reductions reach only 19% of the target values, with nitrogen reductions reach 18%. While industrial and energy transitions could yield substantial carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides reductions in eastern China, agricultural nitrogen losses remain high in major crop- and livestock-producing regions. Closing these gaps will require integrated policies, deep socioeconomic transformation, and advanced carbon-nitrogen management technologies, providing a transferable pathway for aligning environmental and economic objectives within the SDG framework.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007221","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148616074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Terrestrial Water Storage Projections and Uncertainty Decomposition Under Multiple Warming Levels","authors":"Junho Kim,&nbsp;Kichul Jung,&nbsp;Kuk-Hyun Ahn","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007835","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007835","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) is a key integrator of the global hydrologic cycle, yet its future response to climate change remains uncertain due to divergent climate forcings, hydrologic model structures, and parameter choices. This study provides a global, global-warming-level (GWL)-based assessment of future TWS changes at 1.0°C, 2.0°C, and 3.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. We construct a large ensemble that combines multiple climate scenarios, five CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs), four global hydrologic models (GHMs), and 50 hydrological parameter realizations per model. Our results indicate that evaluation against Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mascon observations confirms that the ensemble reasonably reproduces historical large-scale TWS variations. Projections show that TWS changes become more widespread, stronger in magnitude, and more consistent across models as warming intensifies. High-latitude regions generally exhibit TWS increases linked to increased precipitation, whereas many tropical and subtropical regions, including the Amazon, the Sahel, and South Asia, experience TWS declines driven by rising evaporative demand. A four-way analysis of variance reveals that GCMs dominate global TWS uncertainty, particularly in high-latitude and cold-climate regions, while hydrologic-related uncertainty from GHMs and their parameterizations becomes increasingly important in monsoon, subtropical, and semi-arid regions. These results underscore that developing robust, region-specific adaptation strategies requires multi-GCM, multi-GHM, and multi-parameter ensembles that explicitly account for both climate and hydrologic uncertainties.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007835","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148616073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}