Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Human Settlement Pressure Drives Slow-Moving Landslide Exposure","authors":"Joaquin V. Ferrer,&nbsp;Guilherme Samprogna Mohor,&nbsp;Olivier Dewitte,&nbsp;Tomáš Pánek,&nbsp;Cristina Reyes-Carmona,&nbsp;Alexander L. Handwerger,&nbsp;Marcel Hürlimann,&nbsp;Lisa Köhler,&nbsp;Kanayim Teshebaeva,&nbsp;Annegret H. Thieken,&nbsp;Ching-Ying Tsou,&nbsp;Alexandra Urgilez Vinueza,&nbsp;Valentino Demurtas,&nbsp;Yi Zhang,&nbsp;Chaoying Zhao,&nbsp;Norbert Marwan,&nbsp;Jürgen Kurths,&nbsp;Oliver Korup","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004830","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004830","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A rapidly growing population across mountain regions is pressuring expansion onto steeper slopes, leading to increased exposure of people and their assets to slow-moving landslides. These moving hillslopes can inflict damage to buildings and infrastructure, accelerate with urban alterations, and catastrophically fail with climatic and weather extremes. Yet, systematic estimates of slow-moving landslide exposure and their drivers have been elusive. Here, we present a new global database of 7,764 large (A ≥ 0.1 km²) slow-moving landslides across nine IPCC regions. Using high-resolution human settlement footprint data, we identify 563 inhabited landslides. We estimate that 9% of reported slow-moving landslides are inhabited, in a given basin, and have 12% of their areas occupied by human settlements, on average. We find the density of settlements on unstable slopes decreases in basins more affected by slow-moving landslides, but varies across regions with greater flood exposure. Across most regions, urbanization can be a relevant driver of slow-moving landslide exposure, while steepness and flood exposure have regionally varying influences. In East Asia, slow-moving landslide exposure increases with urbanization, gentler slopes, and less flood exposure. Our findings quantify how disparate knowledge creates uncertainty that undermines an assessment of the drivers of slow-moving landslide exposure in mountain regions, facing a future of rising risk, such as Central Asia, Northeast Africa, and the Tibetan Plateau.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004830","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142244552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Nationwide Analysis of Community-Level Floodplain Development Outcomes and Key Influences","authors":"Armen Agopian,&nbsp;Miyuki Hino,&nbsp;A. R. Siders,&nbsp;Christopher Samoray,&nbsp;Katharine J. Mach","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004585","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004585","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Development patterns and climate change are contributing to increasing flood risk across the United States. Limiting development in floodplains mitigates risk by reducing the assets and population exposed to flooding. Here, we develop two indexes measuring floodplain development for 18,548 communities across the continental United States. We combine land use, impervious surface, and housing data with regulatory flood maps to determine what proportion of new development has taken place in the floodplain. Nationwide from 2001 to 2019, 2.1 million acres of floodplain land were developed, and 844,000 residential properties were built in the floodplain. However, contrary to conventional perceptions of rampant floodplain development, just 26% of communities nationwide have developed in floodplains more than would be expected given the hazard they face. The indexes and the analyses they enable can help guide targeted interventions to improve flood risk management, to explore underlying drivers of flood exposure, and to inform how local-to-federal policy choices can be leveraged to limit hazardous development.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004585","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142174206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intensification and Changing Spatial Extent of Heavy Rainfall in Urban Areas","authors":"Herminia Torelló-Sentelles,&nbsp;Francesco Marra,&nbsp;Marika Koukoula,&nbsp;Gabriele Villarini,&nbsp;Nadav Peleg","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004505","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004505","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Urban areas have been shown to impact rainfall by altering both its intensity and spatial structure at sub-hourly and sub-kilometer scales. However, there is currently no clear understanding of the precise pattern of change and the mechanisms that drive these changes. Since the hydrological response in urban areas is highly sensitive to such rainfall properties, understanding these changes is critical to improving our ability to assess urban flood risk. We use 7 years of high-resolution weather radar data (4- or 5-min and 1 km) to analyze changes in patterns of rainfall intensity, spatial structure, and storm evolution across eight urban areas within Europe and the United States. The use of the same methodology across the different cities enables a consistent comparison among them. We track convective rainfall events using a storm tracking algorithm and assess changes in rainfall properties in the upwind, center, and downwind regions of each city. We also investigate changes in the frequency of storm initiations, terminations, splitting, and merging. Our results show that urban areas act to intensify rainfall—mostly over them, but sometimes on their peripheries. Overall, larger cities tend to show the largest rainfall enhancements. Our findings highlight that rainfall spatial structure is altered over the urban core; usually resulting in more spatially concentrated rainfall. We also observe increased storm initiations over most cities and increased storm splitting over one. Given that demographic projections show that future urban population will increase, our results point toward an increased future flood risk in growing cities.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004505","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142165696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Wetland Methane Emissions From 2001 to 2020: Magnitude, Dynamics and Controls","authors":"Han Xiao,&nbsp;Chaoqing Song,&nbsp;Shihua Li,&nbsp;Xiao Lu,&nbsp;Minqi Liang,&nbsp;Xiaosheng Xia,&nbsp;Wenping Yuan","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004794","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004794","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The large uncertainties in estimating CH₄ emissions from wetland ecosystems, the leading natural source to the atmosphere, substantially hinder the quantification of the global CH₄ budget. This study used the IBIS-CH₄ (Integrated BIosphere Simulator-Methane) model, a process-based model integrating microbial mechanisms associated with CH₄ production and oxidation processes, to simulate global wetland CH₄ emissions from 2001 to 2020. Initially, we employed the IBIS-CH₄ model to evaluate its performance across 26 diverse wetland sites worldwide. The results showed that the magnitude and seasonality of observed CH₄ fluxes over various wetland sites were well reproduced. We then used this model to estimate the annual global wetland CH₄ emissions from 2001 to 2020, averaging 152.67 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹, with a range of 135.72–167.57 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹. The estimated global wetland CH₄ emissions are generally in agreement with the current bottom-up estimates (117–256 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹) and closely overlap with independent top-down estimates (139–183 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹). During 2001–2020, the estimated global wetland CH₄ emissions initially showed an increasing trend, followed by a decline. The peak of CH₄ emissions reached in 2010, coinciding with the peak of wetland area. The majority of global wetland CH₄ emissions were concentrated in tropical regions, which exhibited a clear seasonality and had a peak in July. The impact of meteorological factors on wetland CH₄ emissions was greater than that of leaf area index, indicating the importance of soil hydrothermal conditions on wetland CH₄ emissions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004794","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142152166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cyclone Gabrielle as a Design Storm for Northeastern Aotearoa New Zealand Under Anthropogenic Warming","authors":"Dáithí A. Stone,&nbsp;Christopher J. Noble,&nbsp;Greg E. Bodeker,&nbsp;Sam M. Dean,&nbsp;Luke J. Harrington,&nbsp;Suzanne M. Rosier,&nbsp;Graham D. Rye,&nbsp;Jordis S. Tradowsky","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004772","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004772","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cyclone Gabrielle passed along the northern coast of Aotearoa New Zealand in February 2023, producing historic rainfall accumulations and impacts. Gabrielle was an ex-tropical cyclone that stalled and re-energised off the north coast, resembling descriptions of worst case scenarios for the northeast of the country. Here we report on a comparison of the actual forecast of the storm against forecasts under conditions representative of a climate without anthropogenic interference and of a climate +2.0°C warmer than pre-industrial (about 1.0°C cooler and warmer than present respectively). We find that regional total rainfall accumulations from a Gabrielle-like storm are about 10% higher because of the historical anthropogenic warming, and will increase by a larger amount under similar future warming. These differences are driven by a 20% (relative to a non-anthropogenic world) to 30% (relative to a +2.0°C world) rise in peak rainfall rates, which in turn is mainly driven by a more temporally concentrated column-integrated moisture flux. The forecast model generates the larger increase for the +2.0°C world through greater precipitation efficiency, reflecting the importance of unresolved precipitation processes in the climate change response of rainfall extremes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004772","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142152350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variations in Rainfall Structure of Western North Pacific Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Warming Climates","authors":"Thao Linh Tran,&nbsp;Elizabeth A. Ritchie,&nbsp;Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick,&nbsp;Hai Bui,&nbsp;Thang M. Luong","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004808","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004808","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Observations and climate projections suggest a larger increase in tropical cyclone (TC)-induced rainfall than that can be explained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship of 7% increase in vapor content for each 1°C degree rise in temperature. However, these studies using diverse data sources and methods over various periods show inconsistencies regarding the location of this increase - whether in the TC inner core or outer regions - and offer differing explanations for the reported trends. This study uses the Pseudo-global warming methodology on simulations of 117 western North Pacific TCs making landfall in Southeast Asia to investigate changes in TC rainfall structure by the end of the century under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. Specifically, it tests the sensitivity of changing trends to various analysis methods used in previous studies and identifies the underlying physical mechanisms driving these changes. The findings indicate an amplified increase in rainfall in the TC inner core across all future scenarios, along with potentially decreased rainfall in the outer region under certain future climate conditions. Among TC categories, Supertyphoons exhibit the most significant increased rainfall across future states. Changes in TC primary and secondary circulations, TC structure, and the convergence of heat and moisture are the main factors shaping future rainfall patterns, outweighing the effects of changes in atmospheric and convective stability.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004808","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142152351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unraveling the Impacts: How Extreme Weather Events Disrupt Wood Product Markets","authors":"Craig M. T. Johnston,&nbsp;Jesse D. Henderson,&nbsp;Jinggang Guo,&nbsp;Jeffrey P. Prestemon,&nbsp;Jennifer Costanza","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004742","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004742","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While extreme weather events are often localized, the potential effects on global forests can be far reaching due to the interconnected nature of forest product markets. To better understand these dynamics, this study leverages historical forest-based wind damage data in the United States and applies this information as shocks within a global forest sector outlook model. A large, localized wind event modeled as a shock to the US South creates a one-time increase of 18.7 million m³ from salvage harvest operations, equal to over 4% of national harvest. This crowds out traditional harvest activities, leading to downward pressure on prices in the short run, followed by a persistent effect that could take approximately 25 years to dissipate from markets. Average annual wind damage contributes downward pressure on roundwood prices between 1% and 4% in the United States, and this effect is distributed to other countries. The findings suggest that large, localized shocks reverberate across regions and wood product markets due to their interconnected supply chains and trade patterns, and these impacts have important temporal dynamics. Another key result is that the magnitude of these effects are offset by endogenous market reactions in other markets. In other words, unaffected regions change their harvesting patterns in order to compensate for changes in the availability of fiber, shedding light on the importance of capturing global channels as large shocks materialize in changes in market dynamics internationally. Monte Carlo simulations suggest a wide confidence band on salvage harvest rates and prices.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004742","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142152312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Knowns and Unknowns in Future Human Pressures on the Ocean","authors":"O. Alejandra Vargas-Fonseca,&nbsp;Melanie Frazier,&nbsp;Amanda T. Lombard,&nbsp;Benjamin S. Halpern","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004559","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Growing demands on ocean resources are placing increasing pressures on ocean ecosystems. To assess the current state of knowledge of future human pressures on the ocean, we conducted a literature review of recent and projected trends of 25 anthropogenic pressures, comprising most of the identified human pressures on the global oceans. To better understand gaps in the data, we developed a comprehensive framework of the activities contributing to each pressure. All pressures were allocated to five categories (biological disruption, disturbance and removal, altered ocean chemistry, pollution, and climate pressures). All pressures are expected to worsen in the future under business-as-usual scenarios (or similar) based on past trajectories and/or models of future scenarios. Eight of the pressures assessed have not been projected into the future (diseases and pathogens, introduced coastal wildlife predation, disruption to sediment dynamics, wildlife strikes, organic and inorganic chemical pollution, light and noise pollution), likely due to the limited availability of data describing current pressures, the challenges of modeling future pressures, and high levels of uncertainty. We thus recommend they receive priority attention to assess their likely future trajectories, given their potential magnitude of influence.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004559","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142152313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble","authors":"Hélène Seroussi,&nbsp;Tyler Pelle,&nbsp;William H. Lipscomb,&nbsp;Ayako Abe-Ouchi,&nbsp;Torsten Albrecht,&nbsp;Jorge Alvarez-Solas,&nbsp;Xylar Asay-Davis,&nbsp;Jean-Baptiste Barre,&nbsp;Constantijn J. Berends,&nbsp;Jorge Bernales,&nbsp;Javier Blasco,&nbsp;Justine Caillet,&nbsp;David M. Chandler,&nbsp;Violaine Coulon,&nbsp;Richard Cullather,&nbsp;Christophe Dumas,&nbsp;Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi,&nbsp;Julius Garbe,&nbsp;Fabien Gillet-Chaulet,&nbsp;Rupert Gladstone,&nbsp;Heiko Goelzer,&nbsp;Nicholas Golledge,&nbsp;Ralf Greve,&nbsp;G. Hilmar Gudmundsson,&nbsp;Holly Kyeore Han,&nbsp;Trevor R. Hillebrand,&nbsp;Matthew J. Hoffman,&nbsp;Philippe Huybrechts,&nbsp;Nicolas C. Jourdain,&nbsp;Ann Kristin Klose,&nbsp;Petra M. Langebroek,&nbsp;Gunter R. Leguy,&nbsp;Daniel P. Lowry,&nbsp;Pierre Mathiot,&nbsp;Marisa Montoya,&nbsp;Mathieu Morlighem,&nbsp;Sophie Nowicki,&nbsp;Frank Pattyn,&nbsp;Antony J. Payne,&nbsp;Aurélien Quiquet,&nbsp;Ronja Reese,&nbsp;Alexander Robinson,&nbsp;Leopekka Saraste,&nbsp;Erika G. Simon,&nbsp;Sainan Sun,&nbsp;Jake P. Twarog,&nbsp;Luke D. Trusel,&nbsp;Benoit Urruty,&nbsp;Jonas Van Breedam,&nbsp;Roderik S. W. van de Wal,&nbsp;Yu Wang,&nbsp;Chen Zhao,&nbsp;Thomas Zwinger","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004561","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004561","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project–Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process-based projections of the ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise over the twenty-first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice-flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high-emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea-level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice-shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%–40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea-level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ∼10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea-level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi-century projections.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004561","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142142362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi-Model Comparison","authors":"M. Ben-Yami,&nbsp;P. Good,&nbsp;L. C. Jackson,&nbsp;M. Crucifix,&nbsp;A. Hu,&nbsp;O. Saenko,&nbsp;D. Swingedouw,&nbsp;N. Boers","doi":"10.1029/2023EF003959","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003959","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would have substantial impacts on global precipitation patterns, especially in the vulnerable tropical monsoon regions. We assess these impacts in experiments that apply the same freshwater hosing to four state-of-the-art climate models with bistable AMOC. As opposed to previous results, we find that the spatial and seasonal patterns of precipitation change are remarkably consistent across models. We focus on the South American Monsoon (SAM), the West African Monsoon (WAM), the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Models consistently suggest substantial disruptions for WAM, ISM, and EASM with shorter wet and longer dry seasons (−29.07%, −18.76%, and −3.78% ensemble mean annual rainfall change, respectively). Models also agree on changes for the SAM, suggesting rainfall increases overall, in contrast to previous studies. These are more pronounced in the southern Amazon (+43.79%), accompanied by decreasing dry-season length. Consistently across models, our results suggest a robust and major rearranging of all tropical monsoon systems in response to an AMOC collapse.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF003959","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142130450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}