Earths Future最新文献_第10页

Drivers of Contrasting Changes in Streamflow in the Indus and Ganga River Basins 印度河和恒河流域流量变化对比的驱动因素

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006916

Ritaja Roy, Vimal Mishra

{"title":"Drivers of Contrasting Changes in Streamflow in the Indus and Ganga River Basins","authors":"Ritaja Roy, Vimal Mishra","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006916","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006916","url":null,"abstract":"The Indus and Ganga are the two major transboundary rivers that are lifelines for millions of people and their food security in the Indian sub-continent. However, the observed changes in streamflow in these basins and their drivers remain poorly understood. Using in situ and satellite observations, and hydrological modeling, we show contrasting trends, with a ∼8% (p-value = 0.046) increase in streamflow in the Indus Basin due to rising precipitation. In contrast, a sharp decline of ∼17% (p-value = 0.008) in the Ganga Basin driven by intensive groundwater pumping during 1980–2021 and despite the overall increase in streamflow in the Indus Basin, two sub-basins, Ravi and Sutlej, faced a decline in streamflow. Three major sub-basins of the Ganga River, including Yamuna, Ramganga, and Upper Ganga, also experienced a decline in streamflow. About 60%–80% of the streamflow decline in the Ganga Basin is attributable to intensive groundwater pumping, further amplified by weakening summer monsoon precipitation. Drought-induced groundwater pumping exacerbates river drying, especially during the dry season (October–May). Our findings highlight the dominant role of coupled climate-human interactions in driving streamflow changes and emphasize the urgency of integrated surface-groundwater management to safeguard water and food security in India.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006916","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146216884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mapping Philadelphia's Floodscape: A 35-Year Analysis of Coastal Urban Flood Hazards and Drivers 绘制费城的洪水景观：沿海城市洪水灾害和驱动因素的35年分析

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006915

Ning Sun, Youngjun Son, Cade Reesman, Xue Li, Mithun Deb, William Perkins, Zhaoqing Yang, Karthik Balaguru, David Judi

{"title":"Mapping Philadelphia's Floodscape: A 35-Year Analysis of Coastal Urban Flood Hazards and Drivers","authors":"Ning Sun, Youngjun Son, Cade Reesman, Xue Li, Mithun Deb, William Perkins, Zhaoqing Yang, Karthik Balaguru, David Judi","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006915","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006915","url":null,"abstract":"Low-lying coastal urban cities face significant flooding risks from river flooding (fluvial), storm surges and high tides (coastal), and intense local rainfall (pluvial). Accurately assessing these hazards requires modeling frameworks capable of capturing both the individual and combined effects of multiple flood drivers, as well as the diversity of flood scenarios that can arise from their interactions. In this study, we implemented a physics-based, high-resolution modeling approach to assess flood hazards in Philadelphia, PA, a coastal city exemplifying multi-driver flood risks over multiple decades (1985–2019), by simulating a wide range of flood events at a 10-m resolution. By integrating watershed, coastal, and urban flood models, we explicitly resolved the interaction between fluvial, pluvial, and coastal processes across the city. From these simulations, we identified flood hazard hotspots and systematically attributed the primary drivers of flooding for each event. The results suggested that 44% of Philadelphia's flood events were compound floods, primarily driven by fluvial-surge and fluvial-pluvial combinations. Notably, 77% of these events involved fluvial flooding, either as a single flood driver or in combination with other drivers, underscoring the dominant role of riverine processes in the city's flood hazard. Overall, this study demonstrates the value of a comprehensive, process-based approach for urban flood hazard assessment and highlights the importance of considering the full spectrum of flood scenarios to inform targeted and adaptive flood management strategies in coastal cities.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006915","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146224064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Expansion of Exotic Mangroves Sonneratia apetala in China Since Start of the SDGs 自可持续发展目标启动以来，外来红树林无瓣海桑在中国的扩张

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006854

Yubin Li, Chuanpeng Zhao, Mingming Jia, Rong Zhang, Chunying Ren, Zongming Wang

{"title":"Expansion of Exotic Mangroves Sonneratia apetala in China Since Start of the SDGs","authors":"Yubin Li, Chuanpeng Zhao, Mingming Jia, Rong Zhang, Chunying Ren, Zongming Wang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006854","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006854","url":null,"abstract":"Since the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) came into effect in 2016, mangroves have received unprecedented attention for carbon sequestration capacity. In China, previous studies focused on the total area of mangroves using remote sensing technique, neglecting expansion of the exotic mangrove species Sonneratia apetala, even when it is encroaching on habitat of native species. We proposed a robust and interpretable approach to identify the exotic species, applied this approach to generate S. apetala map in China for 2024 using Sentinel-1/2 imagery, and revealed its expansion since start of the SDGs by combining existing data sets. The approach, in the form of a decision rule—Sentinel-1 VH (vertical transmit–horizontal receive polarization) ≥ −14.390 & Sentinel-2 B11 (shortwave infrared band) < 0.084—achieved an overall accuracy of 97.0% for the S. apetala map. The total area of the exotic species in China for 2024 was 3675 ha, which is ∼1.25 times the area in 2020 and ∼1.99 times that in 2016. The expansion characteristics of the species were analyzed from multiple perspectives, including at the provincial level, inside and outside national mangrove nature reserves (NMNRs), and across NMNRs. Hotspots of expanded S. apetala were also identified, revealing that these regions are in varied expansion stages. We also reported area and expansion-rate estimates with uncertainties. This study reveals whether a pixel from Sentinel-1/2 imagery is inferred as S. apetala. This study provides the first holistic view on expansion dynamics of exotic species, alongside the shrinking habitats of native species.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006854","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146217044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Recent Tropical Cyclone Outer Size Increases in the Western North Atlantic 北大西洋西部近期热带气旋外径增大

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007162

Karthik Balaguru, Chuan-Chieh Chang, L. Ruby Leung, Paul A. Ullrich, Yushan Han, Julian R. Rice, Samson Hagos, Daniel Chavas, Sourav Taraphdar, Bryce Harrop, Ning Sun, David R. Judi

{"title":"Recent Tropical Cyclone Outer Size Increases in the Western North Atlantic","authors":"Karthik Balaguru, Chuan-Chieh Chang, L. Ruby Leung, Paul A. Ullrich, Yushan Han, Julian R. Rice, Samson Hagos, Daniel Chavas, Sourav Taraphdar, Bryce Harrop, Ning Sun, David R. Judi","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007162","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF007162","url":null,"abstract":"The outer size of a tropical cyclone (TC) plays a pivotal role in its impact through a modulation of wind duration, rainfall extent and storm surge. While global and basin scale trends in TC size have been examined previously, whether there have been regional changes over time remains unclear. Here, using a suite of observations and reanalyses, we detect an increasing TC outer size over the western North Atlantic during 1979–2022. Over the western subtropical North Atlantic where the largest changes are found, the area-averaged increase in the radius of 17 <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mtext>ms</mtext>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>−</mo>\u0000 <mn>1</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${text{ms}}^{-1}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> winds is about 7.5% over this period. Analysis of the large-scale environment reveals that the air-sea thermodynamic state has become more favorable for storm intensification, and thereby expansion, over that region. Further, numerical model simulations link changes in the environment with those in storm size, and suggest a combination of natural variability and external forcing in driving them.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007162","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146224187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate Change and Disparities in Extreme Heat Exposure for Socially Vulnerable Areas in the Contiguous United States 气候变化和极端高温暴露在美国邻近的社会脆弱地区的差异

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006463

L. A. Parsons, J. T. Erbaugh, F. Lo, R. McCrary, S. R. Raman, D. Shindell, A. Ward, N. H. Wolff

{"title":"Climate Change and Disparities in Extreme Heat Exposure for Socially Vulnerable Areas in the Contiguous United States","authors":"L. A. Parsons, J. T. Erbaugh, F. Lo, R. McCrary, S. R. Raman, D. Shindell, A. Ward, N. H. Wolff","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006463","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006463","url":null,"abstract":"Socially vulnerable communities within the contiguous United States (CONUS) face disproportionate heat exposure, yet how these disparities will change under future warming remains unclear. Although socially vulnerable communities already experience higher air temperatures, high-resolution downscaled climate projections have not been used to assess future exposure disparities under different Global Warming Levels (GWLs). Here, we evaluate past and future daily maximum air temperature exposure across CONUS for high- and low-vulnerability locations using the Social Vulnerability Index. We find the disparity in air temperature exposure for high-SVI areas increased from ∼1.3°C (∼2.3°F) 1951–1980 to ∼1.6°C (∼2.9°F) 1994–2023. Using an ensemble of downscaled climate models, we assess future impacts at GWLs of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C (2.7°F, 3.6°F, and 5.4°F). We compare the number of days/year that exceed air temperature thresholds recommended for safe fan use (35°C, 39°C, or 95°F, 102.2°F) in high-SVI and low-SVI areas. We find that for exposure to a 35°C air temperature threshold, at 1.5°C global warming there is an average annual exposure difference of ∼16 days, at 2°C ∼18 days, and at 3°C ∼22 days. For exposure to a 39°C threshold, at 1.5°C global warming there is an exposure difference of ∼5 days, at 2°C ∼6 days, and at 3°C ∼9 days. These results highlight that future warming will disproportionately increase the number of days exceeding adaptation-relevant air temperature thresholds in high-SVI areas. These findings support the need to slow global warming and direct adaptation efforts toward more vulnerable communities.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006463","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146215904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Increased Aerosols From Siberian Wildfires Buffered Arctic Warming During 2013–2019 2013-2019年西伯利亚野火造成的气溶胶增加缓冲了北极变暖

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007516

Jiyuan Gao, Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Pinya Wang, Xu Yue, Hong Liao

{"title":"Increased Aerosols From Siberian Wildfires Buffered Arctic Warming During 2013–2019","authors":"Jiyuan Gao, Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Pinya Wang, Xu Yue, Hong Liao","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007516","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF007516","url":null,"abstract":"During 2013–2019, global aerosols, influenced by regional clean air actions and wildfires, changed significantly. Clean air actions in China, Europe, and North America reduced anthropogenic aerosols, whereas Siberia experienced increased wildfire aerosols due to local warm and dry conditions. South Asia exhibited mixed trends with increased emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and decreased carbonaceous aerosols. Using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1), this study investigates Arctic climate responses to these regional aerosol changes. Reductions in aerosols from China and Europe-North America resulted in Arctic warming effects of +0.18°C and +0.16°C, respectively, while changes in South Asian aerosols had a relatively small influence on Arctic climate. Increased aerosols from Siberian wildfires induced an Arctic cooling effect of −0.84°C, outweighing the warming from reduced anthropogenic aerosols. These cooling/warming effects are primarily attributed to changes in northward heat transport driven by aerosol changes outside the Arctic, rather than Arctic local radiative forcing. This research highlights the relationship between regional aerosols and Arctic climate, emphasizing a negative feedback mechanism via which increased Siberian wildfire aerosols, amidst accelerated warming in the Arctic Siberia, buffer the Arctic warming. It also implies that future Arctic warming could amplify Siberian wildfires, potentially reinforcing this negative feedback.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007516","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146223948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unlocking the Impact of Temperature and Salinity on Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Estuarine Salt Marsh Soils 解开温度和盐度对河口盐沼土壤温室气体排放的影响

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006912

Wenxiu Sang, Hualei Yang, Wei Feng, Huayu Chen, Jianwu Tang, Shenliang Chen

{"title":"Unlocking the Impact of Temperature and Salinity on Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Estuarine Salt Marsh Soils","authors":"Wenxiu Sang, Hualei Yang, Wei Feng, Huayu Chen, Jianwu Tang, Shenliang Chen","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006912","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006912","url":null,"abstract":"Salt marshes hold substantial potential for nature-based climate solutions; yet their carbon sequestration potential is threatened by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under global warming and sea-level rise (SLR). The combined effects of temperature and salinity on soil GHG emissions still remain unclear. This study integrated in situ monitoring and laboratory-controlled incubation to quantify the fluxes of CO2, CH4, and N2O from the salt marsh (Phragmites australis) soils in the Yangtze River Estuary, in response to temperature and salinity variations. The results demonstrated that warming magnified the influence of salinity, elevating the salinity threshold for GHG emissions, while at low temperatures (<20°C), emissions remained unaffected by salinity. At low salinity (0–4 ppt), temperature significantly stimulated emissions, whereas higher salinity suppressed them. Nevertheless, at elevated salinity, soil respiration becomes more temperature-sensitive, indicating heightened microbial activity under favorable thermal conditions. Soil temperature was identified by the random forest model as the dominant control on GHG emissions than salinity, with 25°C and 5 ppt identified as tipping points for temperature and salinity. Under SLR scenarios of 0.5, 1, and 2 m, GHG fluxes from the Yangtze River Estuary wetlands exhibited a slight decline in emissions with moderate salinity increases, but emissions intensify under more extreme SLR scenarios. This study underscores the combined impact of global warming, SLR, and saltwater intrusion on coastal GHG emissions, highlighting the potential reduction in the effectiveness of carbon sequestration by salt marshes. The findings offer valuable insights for evaluating future blue carbon dynamics under global change.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006912","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146224011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Estimates of Future Sea Levels Under Sea-Level Rise: A Novel Hybrid Block Bootstrapping Approach and Australian Case Study 海平面上升下未来海平面的估计：一种新的混合块引导方法和澳大利亚的案例研究

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006632

Ben S. Hague, Kate R. Saunders, Danielle G. Udy

{"title":"Estimates of Future Sea Levels Under Sea-Level Rise: A Novel Hybrid Block Bootstrapping Approach and Australian Case Study","authors":"Ben S. Hague, Kate R. Saunders, Danielle G. Udy","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006632","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006632","url":null,"abstract":"Coastal flood events are increasing in both frequency and magnitude with ongoing sea-level rise. Here we present a new statistical approach to generate future daily maximum water level timeseries and associated annual and daily flood probabilities for Australia. Our method provides several improvements on existing projection methods, including accounting for how variability in storm surges, tides and mean sea level impact the timing of annual maxima within and between years. Our method presents projected future water levels with autocorrelation and other key statistical properties of observations preserved. Under a sea level rise scenario of approximately 0.8 m by 2100, new record sea levels will be set at least once at 86% of Australian tide gauges between 2020 and 2050. By the 2090s, even a small storm surge can exceed the 2020 current day record sea level at most locations, with exceedances especially likely at times of higher tides. The impacts of future extreme sea levels will be more extreme than current or past record sea levels. For example, in the coastal town of Ballina, New South Wales, there is a 50% chance that 94% of all land parcels will be flooded at least once this century.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006632","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146139390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global Warming Enhances Tropical Cyclone–Induced Extreme Precipitation in the Arabian Sea: Insights From Convection-Permitting Model Experiments 全球变暖增强了阿拉伯海热带气旋引起的极端降水：来自对流允许模式实验的见解

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007294

Akash Pathaikara, Minkyu Lee, Seung-Ki Min, Dong-Hyun Cha, Doo-Sun R. Park, Soon-Il An, Mathew K. Roxy, Raju Attada

{"title":"Global Warming Enhances Tropical Cyclone–Induced Extreme Precipitation in the Arabian Sea: Insights From Convection-Permitting Model Experiments","authors":"Akash Pathaikara, Minkyu Lee, Seung-Ki Min, Dong-Hyun Cha, Doo-Sun R. Park, Soon-Il An, Mathew K. Roxy, Raju Attada","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007294","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF007294","url":null,"abstract":"The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have risen with climate change, affecting multiple sectors worldwide. This study examines the influence of anthropogenic warming on intense tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Arabian Sea using convection-permitting simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In particular, we provide the first quantitative assessment of the impact of anthropogenic forcing on recently observed TC-induced extreme rainfall. Human-induced changes were assessed through two experiments: all forcings (ALL) and natural forcings only (NAT). Anthropogenic warming “delta” patterns of sea surface temperature, relative humidity, and air temperature were derived from CMIP6 models and applied in WRF under a pseudo-global warming framework. Three major TCs—Ockhi (2017), Kyarr (2019), and Maha (2019)—were simulated, and the model reproduced their tracks, intensities, and rainfall with high fidelity. Comparison of ALL and NAT runs shows a clear anthropogenic signal: TC-induced total and extreme rainfall both increases, linked to stronger vertical motion and greater moisture availability that enhance latent heat release and deep convection. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant expansion in the area experiencing extreme rainfall by ∼16%–34%, and an enhanced intensity of extreme rainfall by ∼4%–12% under anthropogenic warming. Additional differences in vertical thermal profiles and warm-core structures further highlight the impact of human-induced climate change on TC dynamics.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007294","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146139393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Structural Accommodation as a Coastal Adaptation Response to Sea-Level Rise: Lessons From Europe 结构调节作为沿海对海平面上升的适应反应：来自欧洲的经验教训

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006797

U. Pasquier, R. J. Nicholls, G. Le Cozannet, P. Sayers, V. Völz, J. Hinkel, A. Toimil, C. Wolff

{"title":"Structural Accommodation as a Coastal Adaptation Response to Sea-Level Rise: Lessons From Europe","authors":"U. Pasquier, R. J. Nicholls, G. Le Cozannet, P. Sayers, V. Völz, J. Hinkel, A. Toimil, C. Wolff","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006797","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006797","url":null,"abstract":"Global sea-level rise is intensifying pressures on coastal regions, increasing the need for adaptation strategies (e.g., protect, retreat, accommodate). At the same time, decision makers require a better understanding of the available responses to address the widening adaptation implementation gap. Structural measures aimed at reducing the impacts of coastal hazards as part of the accommodation strategy have received limited attention in the coastal adaptation literature with few studies looking at how it is currently considered to address sea-level rise. We first advance a conceptual framework that separates structural from non-structural accommodation, recognizing that this distinction is essential to accurately define the adaptation “solution space.” Building on this framework, we synthesize scientific and gray literature, conduct a multilevel review of policy and technical documents, and draw on expert input to not only evaluate the current state of structural accommodation in Europe but also to highlight generic lessons for its potential implementation. This includes consideration of its advantages and disadvantages. Uptake remains fragmented and highly localized, embedded mainly in municipal spatial planning rather than national adaptation agendas, and is hampered by financial, institutional, and technical constraints. We argue that stronger policy integration and dedicated financial incentives could overcome these barriers and harness accommodation's value as a flexible option capable of reducing risk and avoiding long-term lock-in. This study improves our understanding of how this strategy can contribute to coastal resilience in Europe and beyond.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006797","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146129773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0