Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Attribution and Risk Projections of Hydrological Drought Over Water-Scarce Central Asia","authors":"Xinfeng Wu,&nbsp;Wenhui Tang,&nbsp;Feng Chen,&nbsp;Shijie Wang,&nbsp;Zulfiyor Bakhtiyorov,&nbsp;Yuxin Liu,&nbsp;Yansong Guan","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005243","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005243","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Central Asia (CA), a typical arid and semiarid region, has experienced worsening droughts, adversely impacting agricultural production and socioeconomic development. However, the evolution of hydrological droughts in CA remains unclear. Here, we used instrumental streamflow and reanalysis to demonstrate a decline in surface runoff in CA since the 1990s, with 44.6% and 33.2% of the area dominated by reductions in snowmelt and precipitation, respectively. We found that global warming contributes to the long-term decrease in surface runoff, while short-term fluctuations in surface runoff are caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, such as southern CA drying induced by decreasing precipitation during La Niña. We project the future hydrological drought characteristics based on state-of-the-art global hydrological simulations and found increasing duration and severity of hydrological droughts in CA, especially in the Amu Darya basin, and the Caspian Sea East Coast basin. These increasing droughts are exacerbated by higher anthropogenic emissions, posing high-level risks to 39.01% of land area and 35.9% of human population under an extremely high emissions scenario. These findings highlight the need for improved water conservation technologies and concerted development strategies should be considered by national policy makers in this water-scarce and climatically sensitive region.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005243","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143118130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhanced Influence of Late-Winter Arctic Oscillation on Early Spring Temperature in North and Northeast Asia","authors":"Xin Zhou,&nbsp;Tingting Han,&nbsp;Huijun Wang,&nbsp;Botao Zhou,&nbsp;Shengping He","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004958","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004958","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Numerous studies have highlighted the simultaneous relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and weather/climate in Asia. However, the stability of the precursor signals in AO for Asian surface air temperature (SAT), which is important for short-term climate prediction, has received little attention. In this study, a strengthened relationship is identified between the late-winter AO and the early spring SAT over North and Northeast Asia (NNA) around the 1990s. During 1990–2022, a positive (negative) phase of AO during late winter is generally followed by significant warming (cooling) anomalies in the NNA during early spring, whereas this relationship is insignificant during 1961–1987. Further result shows a good persistence of the late-winter AO to early spring after the 1990s. Accordingly, the AO exerts a strengthened impact on Mongolian anticyclone and Asian westerly anomalies through modulation of a Rossby wave train that propagates from the Arctic to the NNA in early spring, leading to significant SAT anomalies at NNA. Additionally, the AO-related temperature anomalies intensified in the stratosphere after the 1990s, linking AO and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). The intensified (weakened) SPV following positive (negative) AO facilitates warming (cooling) anomalies at NNA via downward-propagating Eliassen-Palm fluxes at wave number 1 and circumpolar westerlies in middle and lower troposphere. The seasonal persistence of AO and the strengthened relationship between AO and SPV synergistically enhance the influence of late-winter AO on early spring SAT in the NNA, which might be attributed to the interdecadal changes in background circulation over the Arctic.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004958","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143116191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Relationship of Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition to Soil Nitrogen Cycling Along an Elevation Gradient in the Colorado Front Range","authors":"Deborah A. Repert,&nbsp;Ruth C. Heindel,&nbsp;Sheila F. Murphy,&nbsp;Kaitlyn M. Jeanis","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005356","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005356","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Microbial processing of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition regulates the retention and mobilization of N in soils, with important implications for water quality. Understanding the links between N deposition, microbial communities, N transformations, and water quality is critical as N deposition shifts toward reduced N and remains persistently high in many regions. Here, we investigated these connections along an elevation transect in the Colorado Front Range. Although rates of N deposition and pools of extractable N increased down the elevation transect, soil microbial communities and N transformation rates did not follow clear elevational patterns. The subalpine microbial community was distinct, corresponding to a high C:N ratio and low pH, while the microbial communities at the lower elevation sites were all very similar. Net nitrification, mineralization, and nitrification potential rates were highest at the Plains (1,700 m) and Montane (2,527 m) sites, suggesting that these ecosystems mobilize N. In contrast, the net immobilization of N observed at the Foothills (1,978 m) and Subalpine (3,015 m) sites suggests that these ecosystems retain N deposition. The contrast in N transformation rates between the plains and foothills, both of which receive elevated N deposition, may be due to spatial heterogeneity not captured in this study and warrants further investigation. Stream N concentrations from the subalpine to the foothills were consistently low, indicating that these soils are currently able to process and retain N deposition, but this may be disrupted if drought, wildfire, or land-use change alter the ability of the soils to retain N.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005356","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143116187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Limited Effect of Future Land-Use Changes on Human Heat Stress and Labor Capacity","authors":"Steven J. De Hertog,&nbsp;Anton Orlov,&nbsp;Felix Havermann,&nbsp;Suqi Guo,&nbsp;Iris Manola,&nbsp;Julia Pongratz,&nbsp;Quentin Lejeune,&nbsp;Carl-Friedrich Schleussner,&nbsp;Inga Menke,&nbsp;Florian Humpenöder,&nbsp;Alexander Popp,&nbsp;Peter Lawrence,&nbsp;George C. Hurtt,&nbsp;Louise Chini,&nbsp;Inne Vanderkelen,&nbsp;Edouard L. Davin,&nbsp;Thomas Reerink,&nbsp;Sonia I. Seneviratne,&nbsp;Hans Verbeeck,&nbsp;Wim Thiery","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005021","url":null,"abstract":"<p>To achieve the 1.5°C target of the Paris agreement, rapid, sustained, and deep emission reductions are required, which often includes negative emissions through land-based mitigation. However, the effects of future land-use change on climate are often not considered when quantifying the climate-induced impacts on human heat stress and labor capacity. By conducting simulations with three fully coupled Earth System Models, we project the effects of land-use change on heat stress and outdoor labor capacity for two contrasting future land-use scenarios under high-ambition mitigation. Achieving a sustainable land-use scenario with increasing global forest cover instead of an inequality scenario with decreasing forest cover in the Global South causes a global cooling ranging between 0.09°C and 0.35°C across the Earth System Models. However, the effects on human heat stress are less strong, especially over the regions of intense land-use change such as the tropics, where biogeophysical effects on near-surface specific humidity and wind speed counteract the cooling effect under warm extremes. The corresponding influence on outdoor labor capacity is small and inconsistent across the three Earth System Models. These results clearly highlight the importance of land-use change scenarios for achieving global temperature targets while questioning the adaptation potential for reduction in heat stress.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005021","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Marine Ecosystem Response to a Strong AMOC Weakening Under Low and High Future Emission Scenarios","authors":"A. A. Boot,&nbsp;J. Steenbeek,&nbsp;M. Coll,&nbsp;A. S. von der Heydt,&nbsp;H. A. Dijkstra","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004741","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004741","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Marine ecosystems provide essential services to the Earth System and society. These ecosystems are threatened by anthropogenic activities and climate change. Climate change increases the risk of passing tipping points; for example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) might tip under future global warming leading to additional changes in the climate system. Here, we look at the effect of an AMOC weakening on marine ecosystems by forcing the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) with low (SSP1-2.6) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios from 2015 to 2100. An additional freshwater flux is added in the North Atlantic to induce an extra weakening of the AMOC. In CESM2, the AMOC weakening has a large impact on phytoplankton biomass and temperature fields through various mechanisms that change the supply of nutrients to the surface ocean. We drive a marine ecosystem model, EcoOcean, with phytoplankton biomass and temperature fields from CESM2. In EcoOcean, we see negative impacts in Total System Biomass (TSB), which are larger for high trophic level organisms. On top of anthropogenic climate change, TSB decreases by −3.78<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>%</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $%$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> and −2.03<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>%</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $%$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> in SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively due to the AMOC weakening. However, regionally and for individual groups, the decrease can be as large as −30<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>%</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $%$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>, showing that an AMOC weakening can be very detrimental for local ecosystems. These results show that marine ecosystems will be under increased threat if the AMOC weakens which might put additional stresses on socio-economic systems that are dependent on marine biodiversity as a food and income source.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004741","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"CMIP6 GCMs Projected Future Koppen-Geiger Climate Zones on a Global Scale","authors":"Young Hoon Song,&nbsp;Eun-Sung Chung,&nbsp;Brian Odhiambo Ayugi","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004401","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004401","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study compared the future global climate zones based on four radiative forcings ranging from low-end (SSP1-2.6) to high-end (SSP5-8.5) using the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. To reduce uncertainties in future projected precipitation and temperature, multimodel projections comprising 25 general circulation models (GCMs) were sourced from the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six (CMIP6) and used to create a Multi-Model Ensemble. The changes in historical climate zones on CMIP6 simulations were divided into six periods considering data availability (1954–1964; 1964–1974; 1974–1984; 1984–1994; 1994–2004; and 2004–2014). Furthermore, the climate zone reproducibility of 25 CMIP6 GCMs was compared with the reference data sourced from Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation and Climatic Research Unit temperature. The future climate zones were projected into seven periods using monthly precipitation and surface temperature under four main SSP scenarios. Consequently, the climate variables from GCMs were overestimated compared to the reference data, and the composition of the climate zones was less complex. While temperature discrepancies of 1–2°C may not drastically alter the Köppen-Geiger climate zone classifications, precipitation-based classifications are significantly impacted by the observed errors. Thus, it is crucial to recognize that despite the advancements in GCMs, they still possess limitations in accurately predicting “real” future climate changes. The projected future climate zones are simpler compared to the historical periods across six continents, with tundra and ice caps expected to disappear. This study highlights potential risks by projecting future climate zones based on varying greenhouse gas concentration levels, stressing the importance of using these projections with caution given the inherent uncertainties and limitations of GCMs.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004401","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Human Health, Ecosystem Quality, and Resource Scarcity Burdens Inflicted by Livestock Production Across Chinese Regions","authors":"Yixuan Shao,&nbsp;Qilin Cao,&nbsp;Junnian Song,&nbsp;Jiahao Xing,&nbsp;You Wu,&nbsp;Cheng Sun,&nbsp;Pan He,&nbsp;Wei Yang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005263","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Surge in global population and shift toward animal-based diets have accelerated expansion of livestock production, posing various environmental challenges. It requires inventorying localized, activity-specific, and indicator-extended multidimensional eco-environmental burdens and revealing their transfers within interregional trade to inform holistic livestock production management from both production and consumption sides. Herein, we construct a life cycle framework covering multiple livestock species, feeding regimes, and activities to evaluate nine environmental impacts ending up as human health, ecosystem quality and resource scarcity burdens in Chinese provincial regions. Multi-regional input-output analysis is then conducted to trace transfers of these burdens embedded within trade associated with livestock production. Results indicate that fine particulate matter formation (mainly by livestock housing) and climate change (mainly by enteric fermentation) contribute greater than 60% and 30% to health burdens. Besides for health burdens, for ecosystem burdens primarily caused by housing, and resource burdens mainly aggravated by high on-farm energy use, poultry results in the highest level. The main production regions Shandong, Henan and Sichuan lead from perspectives of both production and consumption-based burdens. Whereas regions with the largest export (Inner Mongolia, 3.87 × 10⁴ DALY for health burdens) or import (Guangdong, 3.92 × 10⁴ DALY for health burdens) do not necessarily bear greatest burdens. This work provides policy instructions in mitigating various eco-environmental burdens imposed by livestock production and promoting sustainable agricultural practices.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005263","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Concurrent Heat Extremes in Relation to Global Warming, High Atmospheric Pressure and Low Soil Moisture in the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Dalai Nasong,&nbsp;Sha Zhou,&nbsp;Kai Kornhuber,&nbsp;Bofu Yu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005256","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005256","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Summer heat extremes increasingly co-occur worldwide, posing disastrous impacts on our society and the environment. However, the spatial pattern and underlying mechanisms of concurrent heat extremes remain unclear. We used a statistical framework to estimate the spatial concurrence strength of heat extremes in the Northern Hemisphere and identified their relationships to global warming, atmospheric circulation, and land-atmosphere feedbacks. Concurrent heat extremes over different regions have significantly increased in the Northern Hemisphere from 1950 to 2023. Moreover, heat extremes show strong spatial concurrence strength, and the driving factors vary geographically. Global warming is responsible for long-term increases in the frequency and strength of concurrent heat extremes, with most pronounced impact in tropical regions. In the absence of warming trends, the temporal and spatial variations in concurrent heat extremes are mainly caused by simultaneous high atmospheric pressure controlled by large-scale circulations, particularly in mid-latitude regions. While low soil moisture enhances regional heat extremes through land-atmosphere feedbacks, it plays a minor role in driving concurrent heat extremes alone but can contribute in combination with high-pressure anomalies. Given the ever-increasing risks of heat extremes, our study underscores the importance of identifying the mechanisms of spatially concurrent heat extremes to improve prediction and mitigation of widespread heatwaves and their adverse impacts on socio-economic sustainability and human well-being.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005256","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What Will the European Climate Look Like in the Future? A Climate Analog Analysis Accounting for Dependencies Between Variables","authors":"B. Bulut,&nbsp;M. Vrac,&nbsp;N. de Noblet-Ducoudré","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004972","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004972","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Increasing the awareness of society about climate change by using a simplified way for the explanation of its impacts might be one of the key elements to adaptation and mitigation of its possible effects. This study investigates climate analogs, which allow the possibility to find, today, a place on land where climatic conditions are similar to those that a specific area will face in the future. The grid-based calculation of analogs over the selected European domain was carried out using a newly proposed distance between multivariate distributions, the Wasserstein distance, that has never been used so far for climate analog calculations. By working on the whole multivariate distributions, the Wasserstein distance allows us to account for dependencies between the variables of interest and for the shape of their distribution. Its features are compared with the Euclidean and the Mahalanobis distances, which are the most used methods up to now. Multi-model climate analogs analysis is achieved between the reference period 1981–2010 and three future periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, for seasonal temperatures (mean, min, and max) and precipitation, from five different climate models and three different socio-economic scenarios. The agreement between climate models in the location and degree of similarity of the best analogs decreases as warming intensifies and/or as time approaches the end of the century. As the climate warms, the similarity between future and current climatic conditions gradually decreases and the spatial (geographical) distance between a location and its best analog increases.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004972","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts on Indian Agriculture Due To Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention Using Agroclimatic Indices","authors":"Nina Grant,&nbsp;Alan Robock,&nbsp;Lili Xia,&nbsp;Jyoti Singh,&nbsp;Brendan Clark","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005262","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change poses significant threats to global agriculture, impacting food quantity, quality, and safety. The world is far from meeting crucial climate targets, prompting the exploration of alternative strategies such as stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) to reduce the impacts. This study investigates the potential impacts of SAI on rice and wheat production in India, a nation highly vulnerable to climate change given its substantial dependence on agriculture. We compare the results from the Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection-1.5°C (ARISE-SAI-1.5) experiment, which aims to keep global average surface air temperatures at 1.5°C above preindustrial in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5) global warming scenario. Yield results show ARISE-SAI-1.5 leads to higher production for rainfed rice and wheat. We use 10 agroclimatic indices during the vegetative, reproductive, and ripening stages to evaluate these yield changes. ARISE-SAI-1.5 benefits rainfed wheat yields the most, compared to rice, due to its ability to prevent rising winter and spring temperatures while increasing wheat season precipitation. For rice, SSP2-4.5 leads to many more warm extremes than the control period during all three growth stages and may cause a delay in the monsoon. ARISE-SAI-1.5 largely preserves monsoon rainfall, improving yields for rainfed rice in most regions. Even without the use of SAI, adaptation strategies such as adjusting planting dates could offer partial relief under SSP2-4.5 if it is feasible to adjust established rice-wheat cropping systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005262","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}