Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-04-24DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005030
Doug Richardson, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Fulden Batibeniz, Yann Quilcaille, Andrea S. Taschetto, Andrew J. Pitman, Jakob Zscheischler
{"title":"Increasing Fire Weather Season Overlap Between North America and Australia Challenges Firefighting Cooperation","authors":"Doug Richardson, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Fulden Batibeniz, Yann Quilcaille, Andrea S. Taschetto, Andrew J. Pitman, Jakob Zscheischler","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005030","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The USA, Canada and Australia are members of an international partnership that shares firefighting resources, including equipment and personnel. This partnership is effective because fire risk between Australia and North America is historically asynchronous. However, climate change is causing longer fire seasons in both regions, increasing the likelihood of simultaneous fire risk and threatening the partnership's viability. We focus on spatially compounding fire weather as the annual number of days on which the fire seasons in Australia and North America overlap, investigating historical and future projections of fire weather season lengths. We use the Canadian Fire Weather Index and compute season length statistics using ERA5 reanalysis data together with historical and future projections from four CMIP6 single model initial-condition large ensembles. Our analysis shows that the length of fire weather season overlap between eastern Australia and western North America has increased by approximately one day per year since 1979. The interannual variability of overlap is driven primarily by the variability in Australia, with correlations between that region's fire weather season length and the degree of overlap exceeding 0.9. Composites of ERA5 and CMIP6 sea surface temperatures suggest a link between the interannual variability of overlap and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, despite this climate mode's opposing relationship with fire weather in the two regions. Finally, we find that the overlap is projected to increase by <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>4 to <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>29 days annually by 2050. We conclude that an increasing overlap of fire seasons is expected to constrain current resource-sharing agreements and shorten preparedness windows.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005030","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143871581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-04-24DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005033
Shuaiqi Wu, Prudentia Gugulethu Zikalala, Sequoia Alba, Katherine S. Jarvis-Shean, Isaya Kisekka, Mira Segaran, Richard Snyder, Erwan Monier
{"title":"Advancing the Modeling of Future Climate and Innovation Impacts on Perennial Crops to Support Adaptation: A Case Study of California Almonds","authors":"Shuaiqi Wu, Prudentia Gugulethu Zikalala, Sequoia Alba, Katherine S. Jarvis-Shean, Isaya Kisekka, Mira Segaran, Richard Snyder, Erwan Monier","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005033","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Perennial crops are vital to the global food supply, providing valuable nutrition and economic benefits, but are at risk of severe climate damages. Most climate research has focused on major annual crops like cereals and has focused on the overall impact of climate change on yields providing limited actionable knowledge to support adaptation. In this study, we bring together climate scientists, biometeorology specialists, plant scientists, and agricultural engineers to develop a new perennial crop modeling framework that integrates climate modeling, horticulture and agronomy science, and statistical modeling. We apply this framework to California almonds as a case study, because they offer robust data to calibrate and evaluate our model. Our model quantifies the influence of climate in each almond development stage and of innovation on county-level yields. We simulate future yield changes under a large multi-model ensemble of high-resolution climate simulations and innovation scenarios. We find that climate change could lead to yield losses of 17% by 2100 under moderate warming (SSP245) and 49% under high warming (SSP585); however, we also find that sustained innovation gains could more than offset these negative climate impacts. We identify increasing minimum temperatures and humidity during the bloom and pollination period as well as heat stress during the growing period as the main drivers of yield losses. We discuss synergistic strategies to limit the negative impacts of climate change and to ensure continued gains from innovation. This modeling approach could provide valuable insights into climate adaptation strategies for other perennial crops and regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005033","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143871583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-04-24DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004571
J. Guiet, D. Bianchi, K. J. N. Scherrer, R. F. Heneghan, E. D. Galbraith
{"title":"Small Commercial Fish Biomass Limits the Catch Potential in the High Seas","authors":"J. Guiet, D. Bianchi, K. J. N. Scherrer, R. F. Heneghan, E. D. Galbraith","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004571","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004571","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The High Seas, lying beyond the boundaries of nations' Exclusive Economic Zones, cover most of the ocean surface and host half of marine primary production. Yet, a tiny fraction of global wild fish catch comes from the High Seas, despite intensifying industrial fishing efforts. The paradoxically small fish catch could reflect economic barriers to exploiting the High Seas - such as the difficulty and cost of fishing in remote ocean parts - or ecological features resulting in a small biomass of commercial fish (10g–100 kg) relative to primary production. We use the coupled biological-economic model BOATS to estimate contributing factors, comparing observed catches with simulations where: (a) fishing cost depends on distance from shore and seafloor depth; (b) catchability depends on seafloor depth or vertical habitat extent; (c) regions with micronutrient limitation have reduced biomass production; (d) the trophic transfer of energy from primary production to demersal food webs depends on water depth; and (e) High Seas biomass migrates to coastal regions. The dominant factor is ecological: commercial fish communities receive much primary production in shallow waters but less in deep waters, limiting exploitable biomass in High Seas. Other factors play a secondary role, with migrations having a potentially large but uncertain role, while economic factors have smaller effects. We estimate the High Seas hosted 25<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>%</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $%$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> of a global 2.8 <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>±</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $pm $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> 0.7 Gt biomass in the early 20th century, changing to 47% of a global 1.5 <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>±</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $pm $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> 0.4 Gt of commercial fish biomass during the early 21st century. Our results stress the limited potential of High Seas to provide food through wild capture fisheries.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004571","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143871582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-04-24DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005465
Rohini S. Gupta, Scott Steinschneider, Patrick M. Reed
{"title":"Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change","authors":"Rohini S. Gupta, Scott Steinschneider, Patrick M. Reed","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005465","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005465","url":null,"abstract":"<p>California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate-change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree-ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food-Energy-Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi-year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005465","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143866023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Forest Dieback in Drinking Water Protection Areas—A Hidden Threat to Water Quality","authors":"Carolin Winter, Sarina Müller, Teja Kattenborn, Kerstin Stahl, Kathrin Szillat, Markus Weiler, Florian Schnabel","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006078","url":null,"abstract":"<p>For centuries, forests have been considered a safeguard for drinking water quality. However, unprecedented pulses of forest dieback globally caused by the rising frequency and intensity of droughts may jeopardize the forests' crucial role in protecting water quality, potentially even turning forests into sources of contamination. To underscore the critical importance of the topic, here we provide the first comprehensive assessment of forest cover, type, and dieback across drinking Water Protection Areas (WPAs) in Germany, one of the countries hit by the unprecedented Central European drought of 2018–2020. Our findings reveal a high forest cover of 43% in WPAs, from which a substantial amount of 4.8% canopy cover got lost within only 3 years. Spruce-dominated forests were particularly susceptible, but other dominant tree species also experienced anomalously high mortality rates. Combining this assessment with exemplary records of nitrate concentrations in the groundwater of WPAs revealed that forest dieback can significantly impair drinking water quality. On average, nitrate concentrations more than doubled in WPAs with severe forest dieback, whereas concentrations did not significantly change in undisturbed WPAs. However, we also found pronounced differences between WPAs affected by forest dieback, underlining the need for further data and research to derive a generalizable understanding of the underlying mechanisms and controls. Based on this assessment, we deduce critical data and knowledge gaps essential to developing well-informed adaptation and mitigation strategies. We call for interdisciplinary research addressing the hidden threat forest dieback poses for our drinking water resources.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006078","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143861911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-04-23DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006112
S. Gopika, K. Sadhvi, J. Vialard, V. Danielli, S. Neetu, M. Lengaigne
{"title":"Drivers of Future Indian Ocean Warming and Its Spatial Pattern in CMIP Models","authors":"S. Gopika, K. Sadhvi, J. Vialard, V. Danielli, S. Neetu, M. Lengaigne","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006112","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) projections display substantial inter-model diversity in the future tropical Indian Ocean warming magnitude and spatial pattern. Here, we investigate the underlying physical mechanisms in 46 CMIP5/6 models using an upper-ocean heat budget framework that separates surface net air-sea flux changes into forcing and feedback components. The multi-model mean (MMM) basin-averaged warming is primarily driven by reduced evaporative cooling due to weaker surface winds related to reduction of both summer and winter monsoonal circulations and increased near-surface relative humidity, with inter-model variations in these parameters controlling warming diversity. The MMM warming pattern features a weakening equatorial gradient, resembling a positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase, and a strengthening interhemispheric gradient, both of which also dominate inter-model spread. Ocean dynamics modulate the amplitude of the MMM IOD-like pattern and its inter-model variability through the Bjerknes feedback, which couples the zonal equatorial SST gradient, equatorial winds, and thermocline slope. Interactions with the tropical Pacific may further contribute to this response. Meanwhile, stronger climatological winds enhance evaporative cooling in the Southern Hemisphere, reducing warming there, and strengthening the MMM interhemispheric SST gradient. The diversity in this interhemispheric gradient is linked to variations in cross-equatorial wind changes and their impact on latent heat flux forcing. This interhemispheric gradient strengthening is part of a broader pan-tropical pattern, with similar features in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. These findings clarify the relative roles of thermodynamic processes and ocean dynamics in shaping future tropical Indian Ocean warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006112","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143861912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-04-22DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004818
H. Cristofari, D. Asse, L. Chanteloup, A. Guisan, I. Otero, E. Reynard, D. Urbach, C. Randin
{"title":"A Model of Mountain Social-Ecological Systems to Catalyze Multi-Actor Collaborations Toward Sustainability","authors":"H. Cristofari, D. Asse, L. Chanteloup, A. Guisan, I. Otero, E. Reynard, D. Urbach, C. Randin","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004818","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004818","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Addressing sustainability challenges in mountain regions where human activities strongly overlap requires multi-actor collaboration and interdisciplinary methods. Yet, such collaborative processes need to account for the existence of diverse representations of mountain social-ecological systems amongst actors. Here we first explore and describe diverse representations of mountain social-ecological systems using picture-based interviews with local actors. We then develop a conceptual model of such systems that can help actors acknowledge and share their representations. This model integrates the human and natural components of mountain social-ecological systems as well as their interactions. To further support reflexivity, it also specifies an individual's personal stance with respect to the system.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004818","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143857069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-04-18DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004775
D. Shen, H. Gu, W. Chen, C. Zhang, S. Xiao, S. Zhang
{"title":"How Many Floods Have Occurred in China in the Past Decade? A Perspective From Social Media","authors":"D. Shen, H. Gu, W. Chen, C. Zhang, S. Xiao, S. Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004775","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004775","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global climate change has led to frequent and widespread flood disasters in China. Traditional flood disaster investigations mainly focus on major flood events, and small-scale flood events are often overlooked. This study utilized the Sina Weibo social media platform to detect flood events in 370 cities in China from 2012 to 2023. We downloaded 73.52 million Weibo posts and developed a two-step flood detection algorithm. In the first step, the algorithm initially identifies 956 flood events based on changes in posting frequency. In the second step, an LDA topic model is used to detect topics for these flood events and automatically filter out false events, resulting in 729 flood events. Verification of these events confirmed that 629 of the 729 were real flood events, achieving a detection accuracy of 86.28%. In the end, after excluding all false flood events and reinstating the mistakenly removed real ones, we obtained a total of 674 verified flood events. Among these 370 cities, 194 cities experienced flood disasters, accounting for 52.43% of the total. Additionally, we compared our findings with online news reports, as well as the flood data sets from the GDACS and EM-DAT. We found that our study had a high detection rate for urban waterlogging events. However, there were cases of missed detection for flash floods and small watershed flood disasters. Nevertheless, this study represents the most comprehensive publicly available detection of flood events in China to date, which is of great significance for the government's flood management and decision-making.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004775","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143845918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Increasing Coarse Aerosols Mitigated the Warming Effect of Anthropogenic Fine Particle Reductions in Europe","authors":"Chen Cui, Pengfei Tian, Wenfang Wang, Zeren Yu, Binrui Wang, Chenguang Tang, Xianjie Cao, Jiening Liang, Lei Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006044","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recent decades have seen substantial variations in the physicochemical characteristics of atmospheric aerosols with expected continued changes in the future. While sustained global emission controls have yielded significant environmental benefits, the associated climate penalty from complex radiative effects has induced additional warming, raising public concern. Our study reveals that increased coarse particles enhance fine particle coagulation, contributing to higher coarse particle levels and a reduction in coarse particle peak size, thereby scattering more solar radiation and mitigating the warming from reduced fine particles in Europe. From 1999 to 2021, changes in coarse particles offset 24.6% (26.3%) of the reduced cooling effect at the top (ground) of atmosphere from fine particle reductions. Our findings highlight the complex but significant role of aerosol size changes in influencing solar radiation budget, offering potential relief for global warming concerns and bolstering emissions reduction efforts, with important global and European implications amid ongoing and expected anthropogenic emission cuts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006044","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143845856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-04-17DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005594
Charles R. Lane, Amanda M. Nahlik, Jay Christensen, Heather Golden, Michael Dumelle, Ellen D’Amico, Anthony R. Olsen
{"title":"Non-Floodplain Wetlands Are Carbon-Storage Powerhouses Across the United States","authors":"Charles R. Lane, Amanda M. Nahlik, Jay Christensen, Heather Golden, Michael Dumelle, Ellen D’Amico, Anthony R. Olsen","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005594","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005594","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding wetland carbon stores and dynamics are critical to managing global carbon flux. Non-floodplain wetlands (NFWs) are hydrologically dynamic and globally prevalent inland wetlands distal to fluvial flowpaths, lacustrine-fringing areas, and geomorphic floodplains; >50% the world's remaining wetlands have been reported as NFWs. Quantifying NFW carbon stores and dynamics represents a substantive global carbon-budget gap. We analyze conterminous-US (CONUS) field-based data collected from nearly 2000 wetland sites sampled by the National Wetlands Condition Assessment (NWCA) representing ∼38 Mha CONUS wetlands, asking: What is the mean soil organic carbon density and total carbon storage in different hydrogeomorphically classified wetland types? To what extent does soil organic carbon density and total carbon in NFWs differ from other wetland types? How does NFW soil organic carbon density and total carbon vary between altered and intact NFWs? We find that relative to other wetland types, NFWs are carbon-storing powerhouses, containing approximately 1.5x soil organic carbon per ha than other wetland types sampled. CONUS-wide, NFWs store more total carbon across every depth increment: ∼2.0x than other wetland types. Further, wetland condition affects carbon dynamics: least impaired NFWs had 1.6x the soil organic carbon density found in intermediately disturbed wetlands and 1.8x the density of most-disturbed NFWs. These NWCA data, plus waning societal protections, suggests that carbon releases from NFW destruction across CONUS landscapes are likely to increase—perhaps markedly—in the coming years (e.g., through altered hydrology affecting atmospheric release of NFW-stored carbon as well as dissolved carbon export).</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005594","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143846002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}