Earths FuturePub Date : 2026-08-28DOI: 10.1029/2026EF008560
Shehakk Muneer Baluch, Muhammad Abrar Faiz, Luchen Wang, Wuyuan Liu, Haiyan Li, Mo Li
{"title":"Evaluating Crop Yield Sensitivity to Climate Change Using a Deep-Learning Framework Incorporating Vegetation and Groundwater Memory","authors":"Shehakk Muneer Baluch, Muhammad Abrar Faiz, Luchen Wang, Wuyuan Liu, Haiyan Li, Mo Li","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008560","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Crop yields integrate contemporaneous weather and lagged vegetation and subsurface water states that reflect eco-hydrological memory. However, these controls are observed only during the satellite era, creating a temporal mismatch between multi-decadal crop-yield records and limiting data-driven models ability to learn antecedent vegetation and groundwater effects. We developed an interpretable spatiotemporal framework to reconstruct historical crop yields responses and assess future climate-scenario impacts in Northeast China (NEC). Central to this framework is the reconstruction module (ReGen-Net), which extends vegetation Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and groundwater storage-anomaly memory back to 1981, bridging satellite period observations with four decades of yield records. Model validation used a temporal hold-out design to prevent leakage and emulate forecasting conditions. The final GATAE-TFT model achieved test <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> values of 0.857, 0.777, 0.798, and 0.837 for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat, respectively, and was used for spatially informed yield assessment and future projections. YieldTransformer was used as a temporal baseline, whereas GATAE-TFT served as the final spatially informed model for scenario-based projections. Bias-adjusted Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project projections from 2017 to 2060, indicate gradual declines in maize, rice, and wheat yields, while soybean yields remain stable under both SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. SHAP-based attribution identifies vegetation greenness and hydro-climatic memory as the most influential predictors across the crops, with crop-specific sensitivities to drought indices and groundwater anomalies. These climate-conditioned yield trajectories provide a physically grounded and interpretable benchmark for assessing water-stress risks to crop production in NEC, China's primary grain-producing region and a critical node in national food security under climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008560","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148823328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2026-08-28DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006892
Eric R. Moore, Md. Moklesur Rahman, Matthew Sena, Joseph G. Galella, Bisesh Joshi, Alexis Yaculak, Marc Peipoch, Jinjun Kan, Shreeram Inamdar
{"title":"Dams and Their Legacies Shape Biogeochemical Evolution of Riparian Sediments","authors":"Eric R. Moore, Md. Moklesur Rahman, Matthew Sena, Joseph G. Galella, Bisesh Joshi, Alexis Yaculak, Marc Peipoch, Jinjun Kan, Shreeram Inamdar","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006892","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006892","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Dams and their legacies have substantially altered riparian ecosystems worldwide and these effects could persist for decades or centuries into the future. However, how biogeochemical characteristics of riparian sediments evolve with depth and time post dam removal is poorly understood. We studied 12 riparian sites across three Mid-Atlantic watersheds in the United States over a chronosequence of 0–234 years since dam removal/breach. Sediments were sampled every 0.3 m to a maximum depth of 4 m upstream of dams. Sediment physico-chemical characteristics evolved asynchronously and at different rates with depth and time post dam breach. Gravimetric water content, ammonium nitrogen, ripening index and bioavailable and amorphous forms of iron were elevated in wet and reducing sediment conditions but low in drained and oxic sediments. Bulk density increased while total organic carbon and nitrogen decreased slowly following drainage after dam removal. We attributed these changes to complex interactions of changes in groundwater levels, vertical variation in sediment texture, amount and forms of iron oxides, and organic matter content in post-dam sediments and buried pre-dam soil horizons. Given the ubiquity of existing and removed dams globally, understanding and quantifying these changes are important for advancing new paradigms for anthropogenic alteration of riparian ecosystems, assessing effectiveness of riparian buffers for pollution mitigation, and guiding restoration and management options post dam removal.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006892","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148823329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2026-08-27DOI: 10.1029/2025EF008053
K. Zhang, K. Morovati, A. Urfels, F. Tian
{"title":"Dam Regulation Moderates Climate-Induced Rice Yield Loss in the Mekong-Tonle Sap Lake System","authors":"K. Zhang, K. Morovati, A. Urfels, F. Tian","doi":"10.1029/2025EF008053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF008053","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rice, a principal global staple crop, is increasingly threatened by flooding under climate change, placing rice-dependent economies at risk. Yet the capacity of human activities to mitigate inundation impacts on rice remains insufficiently quantified. Here we develop an integrated agro-hydrological framework that links climate forcing, hydrological regulation, and farmer decision-making from a systems perspective. We apply the framework to the rapidly changing Lancang-Mekong River Basin, focusing on Tonle Sap Lake, where flood-pulse dynamics strongly shape rice production. Relative to the baseline period (1980–2014), with mean annual inundation-induced rice losses of US$78 million, average losses decline in the near future (2021–2060) across all SSP scenarios, mainly because inundated area and rice exposure decrease. In the far future (2061–2100), losses increase relative to the near future; they remain below the baseline under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 but slightly exceed the baseline under SSP5-8.5. Extreme losses remain possible, with the maximum projected loss reaching US$160 million under far-future SSP5-8.5. Future losses are controlled not only by inundation extent and duration, but also by the timing of inundation relative to rice phenology. Losses shift from the reproductive and maturity stages in the baseline period toward the vegetative and reproductive stages in future periods, reflecting earlier flood recession and delayed planting. Reservoir operation substantially reduces inundation-induced losses, particularly during the reproductive and maturity stages, while planting date adjustment provides additional benefits, especially in the far future. This framework supports climate-resilient assessment of coupled water-agriculture systems and adaptation pathways in flood-dependent rice regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF008053","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148823204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2026-08-27DOI: 10.1029/2026EF008571
Brett F. Sanders, Oliver E. J. Wing, Paul D. Bates
{"title":"Reply to Comment by Hinkel et al. on “Flooding Is Not Like Filling a Bath”","authors":"Brett F. Sanders, Oliver E. J. Wing, Paul D. Bates","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008571","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008571","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With a Comment on our Commentary, “Flooding is not like filling a Bath” in <i>Earth's Future</i>, Hinkel and colleagues dispute our perspective that bathtub models should be abandoned in the context of large-scale flood risk studies, and share an alternative perspective about the cause of climate hype from flood risk studies. Further analysis of the evidence including studies on the origination and propagation of hazard error through risk modeling frameworks, and literature on causal inference, leads us to reaffirm our original perspective. However, we acknowledge that bathtub models might be suitable in local studies of lakes or other water bodies lacking flood dynamics. Furthermore, we are pleased to be in agreement with Hinkel and colleagues that climate hype is of great concern to the scientific enterprise, and there are surely to be many contributing factors to climate hype which we hope will be more carefully considered by authors, reviewers, editors and journalists moving forward.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008571","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148823207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2026-08-27DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006803
J. Hinkel, G. Le Cozannet, D. Lincke, R. J. Nicholls, Ulysse Pasquier, A. Toimil, A. T. Vafeidis, V. Völz
{"title":"Comment on “Flooding Is Not like Filling a Bath” by Sanders et al.","authors":"J. Hinkel, G. Le Cozannet, D. Lincke, R. J. Nicholls, Ulysse Pasquier, A. Toimil, A. T. Vafeidis, V. Völz","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006803","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006803","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In their commentary “Flooding is not like filling a Bath” in Earth's Future (https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005164) Sanders and colleagues highlight biases and uncertainties in the application of bathtub modeling for assessing flood risks, specifically for coastal assessments at broad scales (world-regional to global scales). This is a laudable and timely undertaking. Sanders et al., however, also draw a number of far-reaching conclusions including a general call to abandon the bathtub model together with a claim that the bathtub model introduces unacceptable levels of uncertainty, and that its broad scale applications have contributed to a “climate hype” exaggerating the impacts of climate change. In our opinion, these conclusions are misleading and don't follow from the author's analysis, because the authors take an overly narrow perspective on flood risk. Addressing this issue, this comment characterizes the system problem of assessing current and future coastal flood risk at broad scales, discusses the roles that bathtub and physics-based models play in addressing this problem, as well as the implications for communicating and receiving information on future flood risk at broad scale. Three conclusions are drawn. First, there is no one-size-fits-all model for assessing coastal flood hazard at broad scales and the bathtub model and its variants still have a role to play. Second, physics-based models are computationally too expensive to deliver the multitude of simulations needed for future flood risk and adaptation. Third, future work needs to create a framework to most effectively utilize physics-based models, emulators of them and bathtub-based models for broad scale assessments.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006803","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148823214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2026-08-27DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007767
Xinyuan Huang, Jinyu Shiwang, Klaus Keller, Wei Peng
{"title":"Fine-Scale Population, Emissions, and Atmospheric Dynamics Drive Health Disparity Outcomes From Energy Transition","authors":"Xinyuan Huang, Jinyu Shiwang, Klaus Keller, Wei Peng","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007767","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007767","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Transitioning to a low-carbon energy system can provide air quality and health co-benefits. While the aggregate effects are intuitively clear, the distributions across subnational regions and population groups and their drivers are complex and less intuitive. Here we use an integrated energy-atmospheric-health modeling framework for the United States to analyze what drives the distribution of health-co-benefits caused by energy transitions. We find that the nationwide health effects mainly depend on macro-scale factors, while the disparity outcomes are further affected by micro-scale factors related to emissions, atmospheric processes, and population vulnerability. For instance, in a Net-Zero 2050 scenario, prioritizing emission reductions near minority populations reduces the national average White-Black disparity in ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure to 0.2 μg/m<sup>3</sup>, compared with 0.6 μg/m<sup>3</sup> when emission reductions follow current spatial patterns. Using race-specific rather than uniform exposure-response relationships doubles the estimated White-Black disparity in PM<sub>2.5</sub> attributable mortality rates under both Net-Zero scenarios. Our results highlight the importance of resolving fine-scale patterns to understand the distributional effects of energy transitions on pollution and health.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007767","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148823129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2026-08-27DOI: 10.1029/2026EF008382
Yi Zhou, Xinzhou Zhao, Lan Li, Fujiang Hou, Zhibiao Nan
{"title":"Grazing Enhances System Carbon Balance via the Soil-Plant-Livestock Carbon Pump Regulation Despite Suppressing Specific Carbon Cycling Pathways","authors":"Yi Zhou, Xinzhou Zhao, Lan Li, Fujiang Hou, Zhibiao Nan","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008382","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Grazing is among the most direct and effective strategies for anthropogenic regulation of carbon cycling in global grasslands. Through a 24-year grazing experiment, we propose a conceptual framework of the “Soil-Plant-Livestock Carbon Pump” to elucidate the mechanisms underlying grazing effects on carbon cycling within plant, soil, livestock, and soil-plant-livestock system. Our results indicate that although each unit increase in grazing intensity reduced carbon in above-ground standing biomass and litter by 4.91 and 0.91 g C m<sup>−2</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>, respectively, grazing ultimately had a significant positive effect on system carbon balance. Specifically, grazing reconfigured the pathways of plant carbon allocation, soil carbon inputs, and livestock carbon consumption. Further analysis revealed that plant and soil carbon cycling pathways were the key direct factors regulating system carbon balance, while livestock indirectly explained 10.6%–44.9% of the variance. Furthermore, from a holistic system perspective, grazing constrained the system carbon pump efficiency, which in turn negatively regulated the carbon balance, accounting for 32%–61% of the variance. These findings indicate that grazing can regulate system carbon balance through the soil-plant-livestock carbon pump. Understanding the operating mechanisms of the system carbon cycle is crucial for developing a dual ecological and economic growth strategy.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008382","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148823202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Triple-Benefit Potential of Desert Wind Farms in China: Energy, Resource Complementarity, and Climate Effect","authors":"Naijing Liu, Huaiwu Peng, Lixiao Zhang, Liwei Zhang, Donghai Wu","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008179","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The deserts of Northwest China are one of the most wind energy resource rich area in the country, and are characterized by concentrated solar energy and fragile ecosystems. Thus, efforts to harvest wind energy for carbon neutrality goals face vital challenges, such as determining where to site wind farms with consideration of wind energy output, grid stability, and ecological impacts. Existing studies predominantly focus on power generation and economic aspects, and few have proposed a multidimensional framework that simultaneously optimizes energy generation, wind-solar complementarity for grid integration, and climate impacts. To address this gap, we develop an assessment framework that integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model, geostationary satellite observations, and machine learning models. Utilizing our framework, we identified an optimal area of 219,000 km<sup>2</sup> that can generate 3,165 TWh of electricity annually. This optimal area also has high wind-solar complementarity (correlation coefficient: −0.81) and can reduce the diurnal land surface temperature range by 0.5°C. Our framework may provide benefits for all three objectives: providing considerable electricity, strengthening the stability of the grid, and helping reduce the temperature range. Our analysis reveals spatial heterogeneity with distinct characteristics: Inner Mongolia excels in terms of energy economic benefits, while the wind farms on the Tibetan Plateau offer stronger climatic effects. This triple benefit framework advances beyond a single-objective siting framework and provides a practical framework for sustainable energy planning under multiple constraints.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008179","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148823213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2026-08-24DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007836
Andra J. Garner, Amy Appollina, Jessica Slotter, Gregory G. Garner, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Robert E. Kopp, Benjamin P. Horton
{"title":"Evolution of Global Sea-Level Rise Projections and Their Uncertainty","authors":"Andra J. Garner, Amy Appollina, Jessica Slotter, Gregory G. Garner, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Robert E. Kopp, Benjamin P. Horton","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007836","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007836","url":null,"abstract":"<p>For more than 40 years, scientists have projected future sea-level change. Documenting how sea-level projections have evolved is vital for tracking progress, uncertainties, and future research needs. Here, we update and analyze a database of global-mean sea level (GMSL) projections dating from 1982 to 2025, identifying five key findings. First, GMSL projection generation has been concentrated in a small number of developed countries, with 95% of projections produced in the United States, United Kingdom, European Union, or Australia. Second, while GMSL projections for 2050 and 2100 have been published regularly since the early 1980s, only 30 of 103 studies have produced projections extending beyond 2100; all but one of these 30 studies postdates 2010. Third, among studies providing multiple estimates, the range of highest GMSL projections for 2100 has broadened since 2007, reaching 0.6–2.0 m across publications since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Fourth, GMSL projections from the IPCC have historically been conservative compared to projections from individual studies. Prior to AR6, ∼66% of 2100 projections at the upper end of uncertainty intervals from individual studies exceeded the corresponding upper projections from IPCC reports. However, the inclusion of “low-confidence” GMSL projections in AR6 to assess higher amounts of GMSL change of poorly known likelihood reduces this problem: the 83rd percentile of these low-confidence projections is exceeded by <25% of upper estimates from individual studies. Finally, analyses suggest that the arrival time of key GMSL milestones are often similar for projections spanning multiple eras and using various methodologies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007836","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148848693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Linking Grain Planting Patterns to Multidimensional Agricultural Sustainability: Evidence From Landscape Metrics and Spatial Analysis in China","authors":"Ruihua Shen, Kaixuan Wang, Yulian Xia, Shikun Sun, Jingxin Sun, Yali Yin, Yubao Wang, Pute Wu","doi":"10.1029/2025EF008035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF008035","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Changes in grain planting patterns have been closely linked to substantial increases in crop yields. However, their relationships with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) remain unclear, particularly across multiple SDG dimensions. Clarifying these relationships could help inform progress toward food security and the SDGs. Hence, this study develops a comprehensive research framework to evaluate grain planting patterns, quantify seven agriculture-related SDGs grouped into four dimensions—economic, social, ecological, and water-resource sustainability—and analyze their spatiotemporal dynamics and links with planting patterns. Using Geodetector, Spearman correlation, and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR), we quantify links between planting patterns (area, yield, landscape metrics) and agricultural SDG scores standardized to a 0–100 scale, with higher values indicating better relative performance within the assessment framework. Over 20 years, grain production increased by 53.47%, corresponding to a 210.44 Mt increase on a 15.04 Mha expanded planting area. Water-resource and ecological dimensions had higher normalized SDG scores, with multi-year averages of 60.16 and 59.27, respectively, than the economic (48.12) and social dimensions (44.80). SDG scores increased to varying degrees during the study period, except for the social dimension, which remained relatively stable. Farmland expansion and greater landscape complexity were positively associated with economic and social SDG scores, but negatively associated with ecological and water-resource SDG scores. These findings highlight potential trade-offs between productivity gains and multidimensional sustainability and provide evidence for SDG-oriented agricultural management.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF008035","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148785199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}