Earths Future最新文献

Crop Model Ensemble Averaging: A Large But Underappreciated Uncertainty Source for Global Crop Yield Projections Under Climate Change 作物模式集合平均：气候变化下全球作物产量预测的一个巨大但未被充分认识的不确定性来源

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-31 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005900

Xiaomeng Yin, Guoyong Leng, Jiali Qiu, Xiaoyong Liao, Shengzhi Huang, Jian Peng

{"title":"Crop Model Ensemble Averaging: A Large But Underappreciated Uncertainty Source for Global Crop Yield Projections Under Climate Change","authors":"Xiaomeng Yin, Guoyong Leng, Jiali Qiu, Xiaoyong Liao, Shengzhi Huang, Jian Peng","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005900","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005900","url":null,"abstract":"Using an ensemble of crop models have been encouraged for global crop yield projections, which would, however, introduce additional uncertainty from the choice of ensemble averaging methods. Here, we use seven ensemble averaging methods including simple average, regression, Support Vector Regressor, Bayesian model average (BMA), Random Forest (RF), Artificial neural network (ANN) and Long-short term memory to derive the ensemble mean of eight process-based crop models for global maize yield projections. Results show that the choice of ensemble averaging methods has a large impact on the projection of long-term mean yield and year-to-year yield variability, with a range of −19.79%–16.62% and −47.92%–55.39% for the globe, respectively. Regionally, the largest uncertainties from the choice of ensemble averaging methods are observed in Indonesia and Canada. Further uncertainty decomposition analysis shows that ensemble averaging methods contributes to 39%–87% of total uncertainties for global yield projections, which is even higher than climate models. These results imply that although using an ensemble of crop models is valuable for informing risk-based policy-makings, how we choose to combine and derive the best estimates of crop model ensembles has large influence on the assessment outcomes. This study highlights an important but not well recognized uncertainty source for global yield predictions which arises from the choice of ensemble averaging methods.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005900","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144179014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Patterns and Predictors of Residential Indoor Water Use Across Major US Cities 美国主要城市住宅室内用水模式和预测因素

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-31 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005467

Md Yunus Naseri, Grant Bernosky, Peter W. Mayer, Landon T. Marston

引用次数: 0

Projecting the Longevity of Coastal Foredunes Under Stochastic Meteorological and Oceanographic Forcing 在随机气象和海洋强迫下预测海岸前沙丘的寿命

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-31 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005335

Nicholas Cohn, Dylan Anderson

{"title":"Projecting the Longevity of Coastal Foredunes Under Stochastic Meteorological and Oceanographic Forcing","authors":"Nicholas Cohn, Dylan Anderson","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005335","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005335","url":null,"abstract":"Coastal foredunes serve as a critical buffer between the ocean and beach-adjacent infrastructure, yet these features are at increasing risk of destruction from future storms and changes in sea level. Quantifying potential future hazards to dunes, which are influenced by both erosional wave-driven and accretional wind-driven processes, is complicated by an inability to forecast the exact sequencing and magnitude of future oceanographic and meteorological forcings. Here we use a stochastic weather emulator capable of generating time series of wind and wave properties to force a reduced complexity morphologic model to assess potential accretional and erosional dune volume changes over the next century. Stable beaches with low shoreline change rates are predicted to have net accretional dunes over the next century on average. Inclusion of background beach erosion rates and sea level changes instead drives more frequent net volumetric dune erosion. At decadal scales, volume changes of the dune are shown to be dominated by the magnitude of shoreline change rate in locations that are rapidly retreating. For stable and mildly eroding shorelines (<<math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mspace></mspace>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $ sim $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> −0.3 m/yr), both shoreline changes and changes in the still water level influence timescales of dune destruction. Sets of probabilistic simulations are used to show that gradual wind-driven sediment gains can compensate for episodic wave-driven losses over the long term. However, in the case of higher sea levels, more frequent dune collision results in less time for dune recovery in between major storms in which case tipping points in future dune states can occur.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005335","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144179013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing Water Source Stability in the Three River Source Region: A Comprehensive 35-Year Analysis 三江源区水源稳定性评价：35年综合分析

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-31 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005564

Lifeng Zhang, Daniel R. Schlaepfer, Zhiguang Chen, Zhongkuan Liu, Zhenyu Liu, Song Gu, William K. Lauenroth

{"title":"Assessing Water Source Stability in the Three River Source Region: A Comprehensive 35-Year Analysis","authors":"Lifeng Zhang, Daniel R. Schlaepfer, Zhiguang Chen, Zhongkuan Liu, Zhenyu Liu, Song Gu, William K. Lauenroth","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005564","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005564","url":null,"abstract":"Terrestrial ecosystem water balance refers to the state between precipitation inputs, and outputs via evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge and runoff. The Three River Source Region (TRSR) is known as the “water tower of Asia” and is an important water source region for much of southeast Asia. Spatial and temporal distributions of water balance across the TRSR have been affected by recent changing climatic conditions. However, the status and variation of water balance under the influence of environmental factors remain unclear. We employed SOILWAT2, a daily time step ecosystem water model, along with 35 years of climate data from 29 meteorological stations to characterize the hydrological dynamics of the region. Our results revealed that 15 of the sites exhibited evidence of a net water source (precipitation > actual evapotranspiration) between 1981 and 2015. These stations were predominantly located at intermediate elevations (3,400–4,100 m) and low latitudes (<34°N), while stations at lower and higher elevations as well as higher latitudes were not sources because of moisture limitations by a dry climate. In contrast to a strong spatial pattern, we found no obvious temporal trend of the net water source. The interannual and seasonal variability of the net water source is dependent on the temporal fluctuations in potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. We therefore conclude that there is an elevation and latitude dominated spatial pattern of the water balance on the TRSR, with important implications for the availability of water resources.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005564","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144179011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

More Distinct Dry and Humid Heat in a Warming World 全球变暖中更明显的干湿热

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005770

Ethan D. Coffel

引用次数: 0

The Biomass Carbon Sequestration Potential in China's Drylands 中国旱地生物质固碳潜力研究

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006022

Zimin Tan, Shuai Wang, Fangli Wei, Changjia Li, Fengyu Fu, Lixin Wang

{"title":"The Biomass Carbon Sequestration Potential in China's Drylands","authors":"Zimin Tan, Shuai Wang, Fangli Wei, Changjia Li, Fengyu Fu, Lixin Wang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006022","url":null,"abstract":"Drylands are important carbon pools for climate change mitigation but remain highly vulnerable to climate and anthropogenic pressures. Despite China hosting one of the largest dryland areas globally, limited studies have quantified its biomass carbon storage and sequestration potential. Here, we divided China's drylands into ecological types and climate zones and employed random forest models to estimate biomass carbon carrying capacity and carbon sequestration potential. The results showed that the carrying capacity of China's drylands is 7.1 Pg C, with ∼4.1 Pg C (∼58%) already stored and an additional 3 Pg C potentially sequesterable. Regions with the highest carbon sequestration potential are concentrated in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia, the Northeast China, the northern part of Xinjiang, and the Huang-huai-hai region. Forests showed the highest total carbon carrying capacity (4.2 Pg C) and carbon sequestration potential (2.1 Pg C), followed by grasslands with a carbon carrying capacity of 2.7 Pg C and sequestration potential of 1.6 Pg C. Carbon sequestration thresholds varied across land use change types and aridity gradients. The identified hotspots in our study where vegetation has not yet reached its full potential should be the main target of future restoration projects. It should be noted that these estimates are based on historical climate conditions and land cover patterns, and may vary under future climate change and land use transitions. Therefore, these figures should be interpreted as conditional estimates, reflecting the limitations of using static climatic baselines.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006022","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144171511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Regionally-Dependent Arctic Sea Ice Recovery to CO2 Removal 区域依赖的北极海冰恢复到CO2去除

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005597

M. Inês Cajada, Seok-Woo Son, Jaeyoung Hwang, Hyo-Seok Park, Soon-Il An

{"title":"Regionally-Dependent Arctic Sea Ice Recovery to CO2 Removal","authors":"M. Inês Cajada, Seok-Woo Son, Jaeyoung Hwang, Hyo-Seok Park, Soon-Il An","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005597","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005597","url":null,"abstract":"The decline of Arctic sea ice area (SIA) has accelerated in recent decades and is projected to continue in a warming climate. This trend can be reversed by reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. A large-ensemble model experiment, in which atmospheric CO2 concentrations are quadrupled and then reduced to the initial state, shows an overall recovery of Arctic SIA by CO2 removal, but at a slower rate than its decline to CO2 increase. The exception is the North Atlantic, where SIA increases rapidly with decreasing CO2 concentrations. The under-recovery of Central Arctic SIA can be attributed to a slow decrease in Arctic ocean heat storage, due to a lagged ocean cooling and heat transport, and enhanced downward longwave radiation in the Arctic atmosphere, partly due to frequent atmospheric rivers across the Arctic Circle. In contrast, the over-recovery of North Atlantic SIA is primarily attributed to weakened ocean heat transport by a delayed recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This over-recovery is shown to be model dependent, following each model's AMOC change. Full recovery of Arctic SIA takes over 300 years after CO2 removal. This result suggests that the response of Arctic sea ice to CO2 removal may be spatially inhomogeneous, with different impacts on regional climate, potentially affecting the climate of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005597","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144148295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-Day Extreme Precipitation Caused Major Floods in India During Summer Monsoon of 2024 2024年夏季季风期间，印度多日极端降水导致大洪水

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005497

Dipesh Singh Chuphal, Iqura Malik, Rajesh Singh, Gayathri Vangala, M. Niranjannaik, Urmin Vegad, Nandana Dilip K, Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, J. P. Selvan, Vivek Kapadia, Vimal Mishra

{"title":"Multi-Day Extreme Precipitation Caused Major Floods in India During Summer Monsoon of 2024","authors":"Dipesh Singh Chuphal, Iqura Malik, Rajesh Singh, Gayathri Vangala, M. Niranjannaik, Urmin Vegad, Nandana Dilip K, Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, J. P. Selvan, Vivek Kapadia, Vimal Mishra","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005497","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005497","url":null,"abstract":"The risk of extreme precipitation and flooding has increased in India due to climate change. During the 2024 summer monsoon season, three major extreme precipitation events occurred across the western, southern, and northern states of India, leading to widespread flooding in these regions. We examine the causes and impacts of extreme precipitation and flood events using a combination of observational data, reanalysis data sets, and hydrological models. In all the three regions, extreme rainfall occurred immediately after multiday continuous precipitation, resulting in catastrophic flooding. The 3-day extreme precipitation that caused flooding in the three regions had return periods of more than 75 years, 100 years, and 200 years, respectively. The primary moisture sources for the Gujarat floods were the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, while the floods in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana were mainly sourced by the Bay of Bengal. For the floods in northern India, the dominant moisture sources were recycled land moisture and moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal. These moisture inflows, coupled with favorable atmospheric conditions, resulted in multiday extreme precipitation in the three regions. Saturated soil moisture conditions before the extreme precipitation contributed to high runoff, triggering extensive flooding in all the three regions. Our findings highlight the growing challenge of managing such extreme events as their frequency and intensity are projected to increase under a warming climate.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005497","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144100774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Road-Level Charging Gaps and Infrastructure Enhancements in Japan's Electric Vehicle Transition 日本电动汽车转型中的道路充电缺口和基础设施改善

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005559

Xiaoyan Xu, Yoshikuni Yoshida, Jiawei Yong, Shintaro Fukushima, Renhe Jiang, Yin Long

{"title":"Road-Level Charging Gaps and Infrastructure Enhancements in Japan's Electric Vehicle Transition","authors":"Xiaoyan Xu, Yoshikuni Yoshida, Jiawei Yong, Shintaro Fukushima, Renhe Jiang, Yin Long","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005559","url":null,"abstract":"The global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is accelerating, yet inadequate charging infrastructure continues to impede adoption in certain regions. Japan, despite its early leadership in EV promotion and extensive patent portfolio, has been notably slow in transitioning, with charging accessibility emerging as a potential constraint. To address this challenge, we conduct a spatial evaluation of EV charger accessibility and assess strategies for optimizing network accessibility. Using data from 5,585 EV charging stations and road congestion patterns across the Tokyo metropolitan area, we developed a road-level Charging Insufficiency Index to quantify accessibility gaps. Our results show that over 60% of roads in selected cities may face insufficient charging infrastructure, potentially posing barriers to EV adoption. Among the alleviation measures, expanding the rapid charging network achieves the greatest reduction in charging insufficiency, decreasing the total length of roads with above-average charging insufficiency by approximately 904.10 km across 51% of cities during rush hour. This study offers a framework for guiding targeted infrastructure expansion and policy interventions, providing insights that can inform EV adoption strategies in Japan and other regions facing similar challenges.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005559","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144091773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Digital Transformation in Agricultural Supply Chains Enhances Green Productivity: Evidence From Provincial Data in China 农业供应链数字化转型提高绿色生产力：来自中国省级数据的证据

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006089

Haiyan Yu, Wuniu Qubi, Juan Luo

引用次数: 0