Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Natural Coastal Protection and Urban Settlement Patterns: A Multi-Region Analysis of Wave Sheltering Effects on Coastal Urbanization","authors":"Shuting Sun,&nbsp;Rongchang Chen,&nbsp;Chen Liu,&nbsp;Huihui Zhao,&nbsp;Siqi Wei,&nbsp;Wei Han","doi":"10.1029/2026EF009081","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF009081","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Coastal urbanization is accelerating globally, yet the role of natural coastal protection in shaping settlement patterns remains poorly understood. We examine how wave climate influences coastal population distribution by integrating global wave analysis data from the Copernicus Marine Service (CMEMS, January 2023–May 2025) with high-resolution population metrics (WorldPop) across five geomorphologically diverse coastal regions (Tokyo Bay, Melbourne, New York, Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta). A dual-model spatial framework—combining a coastal distance-decay model and a regional neighborhood-average model—quantifies inland wave influence. Beyond the conventional mean significant wave height, we derive the deep-water wave energy flux <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>P</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $P$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> and decompose the wave field into its swell and wind-sea partitions. In Japan, the swell-only metrics match or exceed the explanatory power of total-wave metrics while the wind-sea component is generally weaker, consistent with a contribution from swell filtering; the relative performance of wave metrics varies among regions. To assess whether this signal could reflect the geometry of flat alluvial terrain, we further compute terrain slope from 30 m SRTM data and report partial correlations controlling for slope; the wave–population relationship persists with only marginal attenuation, indicating that wave climate carries explanatory power beyond terrain geometry alone. The proposed framework offers a physically grounded, quantitative tool for assessing natural coastal resilience and has implications for sustainable urban planning under climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF009081","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149356233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Emissions Poised to Rocket: Modeling the Environmental Impacts of Low Earth Orbit Satellite Constellations","authors":"Rushil Kukreja,&nbsp;Edward J. Oughton,&nbsp;Richard Linares","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006511","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The proliferation of satellite megaconstellations in low Earth orbit represents a significant advancement in global broadband connectivity. However, we urgently need to understand the potential environmental impacts, particularly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with these constellations. This study addresses a critical gap in modeling current and future GHG emissions by developing an open-source life cycle assessment methodology, applied to 12 launch vehicles and 24 megaconstellations. Our analysis reveals that fully deploying the 24 constellations would emit about 9.1 Mt CO₂. Propellant combustion during launch events (60.9%) and launcher production (31.6%) contribute most significantly to overall GHG emissions, accounting for 92.5% of modeled life cycle emissions. Reusing launch vehicles lowers production emissions per launch by 81%–97% relative to building a new vehicle for every flight, highlighting the environmental benefits of reusability in space technology. The findings underscore the importance of launch vehicle and satellite design choices to minimize potential environmental impacts. The Open-source Rocket and Constellation Lifecycle Emissions (ORACLE) repository is freely available and aims to facilitate further research in this field. This study provides a critical baseline for policymakers and industry stakeholders to develop strategies for reducing the carbon footprint of the space industry, especially satellite megaconstellations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006511","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149356334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projection of the Status and Future Shifts of Topsoil Organic Carbon Stocks in Northern Hemisphere Permafrost Regions: Patterns and Drivers","authors":"Dong Wang,&nbsp;Tonghua Wu,&nbsp;Xiaodong Wu,&nbsp;Shenyun Chen,&nbsp;Hotaek Park,&nbsp;Tetsuya Hiyama,&nbsp;Ren Li,&nbsp;Xiaofan Zhu,&nbsp;Jie Chen,&nbsp;Sizhong Yang,&nbsp;Xianhua Wei,&nbsp;Amin Wen,&nbsp;Yune La,&nbsp;Peiqing Lou,&nbsp;Xuchun Yan,&nbsp;Xin Ma,&nbsp;Xingchen Lin","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007478","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Northern Hemisphere (NH) permafrost areas harbor vast reservoirs of soil organic carbon (SOC), which are potentially at serious releasing risk due to climate change. However, projections of future changes in SOC stocks in these regions remain subject to large uncertainties. In this study, we constructed an integrated approach that combines space-for-time substitution with a machine learning model to estimate the current status of surface (0–30 cm) SOC stocks in NH permafrost regions and to project their future changes throughout the 21st century under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The results indicate that approximately 224.2 Pg C were stored in NH permafrost regions during the baseline period (1981–2000), and they will remain relatively stable (−0.5% ± 0.9%) until the conclusion of 21st century under SSP1-2.6, while a significant loss of about 8.5% ± 3.5% is projected under SSP5-8.5. Spatially, the areas with increased surface SOC in the future are mainly located in the continuous permafrost zone, while the decrease is identified in most of discontinuous, sporadic, and isolated permafrost areas. Among ecosystems, grasslands and deserts are projected to act as future carbon sinks, while forests exhibit the largest declines. Temperature exerts the strongest control on SOC dynamics in the northern circumpolar (NC) permafrost region through a nonlinear threshold effect, whereas precipitation and vegetation productivity govern SOC changes in the Third Pole. These results highlight pronounced spatial heterogeneity of SOC dynamics in permafrost regions, providing valuable insights for carbon–climate feedback assessments and regional policy.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007478","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149356295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Prospective Cooling Machine for the Svalbard Branch of Norwegian Atlantic Water in a Future Climate","authors":"Yue Wu,&nbsp;David P. Stevens,&nbsp;Xiaoming Zhai,&nbsp;Ian A. Renfrew","doi":"10.1029/2026EF009526","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF009526","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The evolution of air-sea interaction and the ocean north of Svalbard is investigated using a high-resolution configuration of the coupled climate model HadGEM3-GC3.1 under a high-emission pathway (SSP5-8.5). To the west and north of Svalbard, where the West Spitsbergen Current—the northward branch of the Norwegian Atlantic Current—carries warm and saline Atlantic Water (AW) into the Arctic, we identify a significant shift in the pattern of sea-ice decline. In the late 20th century, the sea-ice edge retreats gradually downstream along the current's pathway. However, in the 21st century, the ice edge retreats northward across the continental slope, leading to the simultaneous exposure of the AW core to the atmosphere. This rapid increased exposure triggers enhanced cooling and convective mixing along the AW pathway. The water column undergoes destratification due to the AW encroachment, along with mixing, resulting in a warmer and less stratified upper ocean downstream on this pathway. The potential temperature maximum of the AW shoals, increasing the potential for enhanced oceanic heat loss. A closed regional ocean heat content analysis reveals that net advective heat convergence into the region increases substantially, driving a sustained wintertime surface heat loss that stabilizes at ∼70 TW by the 2040 s. These changes suggest that a prospective “cooling machine” north of Svalbard will soon emerge in a future climate, operating at a capacity comparable to the Barents Sea and fundamentally altering the water mass transformation and heat export into the deep Arctic interior.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF009526","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149355876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prediction of Escaped Powerline-Caused Fires in Alberta, Canada","authors":"Xuezheng Zong,&nbsp;Xianli Wang,&nbsp;Mike D. Flannigan","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008523","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008523","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Powerlines have increasingly become a source of wildfire ignitions, contributing to more escaped and catastrophic fires during extreme fire weather. Temporary power shutoffs are implemented to reduce this risk, yet decisions on their implementations are often based on limited scientific evidence. Focusing on the boreal forests in Alberta, Canada, we developed an integrated framework to assess the likelihood of Escaped powerline-caused fires (EPF) (EPFs) from occurrence and early spread perspectives. Using records of powerline-caused fires from 1990 to 2023, we integrated MaxEnt and machine-learning models to predict occurrence and escape probability from fire weather, fuels, and topography at the regional scale, overcoming the reliance on detailed powerline operational parameters. Although the frequency of powerline-caused fires has increased in recent decades, most fires remain small and are contained during initial attack (IA). Fire weather emerged as the primary drivers of both fire occurrence probability and spread. Higher fire weather substantially increases the probability of powerline-caused fire occurrence, while fires in coniferous forests are more likely to escape initial attacks. Under extreme fire weather (Fire Weather Index (FWI) &gt;30), the EPF likelihood is more than three times higher than under moderate conditions (5 ≤ FWI &lt;11), with the significant increases concentrated in southwestern Alberta.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008523","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149356272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Vanishing Winters and Shrinking Ice: Ecosystem Services and Societal Impacts in the Laurentian Great Lakes","authors":"Marguerite A. Xenopoulos,&nbsp;Claire M. Stevens,&nbsp;Most Shirina Begum,&nbsp;Vedanti Ghatwala,&nbsp;Panditha V. S. L. Gunawardana,&nbsp;James D. Kelley,&nbsp;Carolina N. Koebel,&nbsp;Jessica Livingstone,&nbsp;Sherryann A. Prowell,&nbsp;Yue Zheng,&nbsp;John F. Bratton,&nbsp;Matthew Child,&nbsp;Ian Harding,&nbsp;R. Michael McKay,&nbsp;Ted Ozersky,&nbsp;Samir Qadir,&nbsp;Sapna Sharma,&nbsp;Michael R. Twiss,&nbsp;Mathew G. Wells","doi":"10.1029/2026EF009213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF009213","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Laurentian Great Lakes are undergoing rapid winter transformations, with profound implications for human societies. Winter air temperatures have increased, accelerating ice loss since the mid-1990s. These trends are altering thermal regimes, shifting precipitation from snow to rain, and increasing winter runoff and nutrient fluxes, with cascading effects across physical, chemical, and biological systems. Using the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment framework, we synthesize how warming winters affect supporting, regulating, provisioning, and cultural ecosystem services, as well as their positive and negative socioeconomic implications for the Sustainable Development Goals. Winter warming is altering supporting services by reducing the stability and extent of under-ice habitats that provide refugia for biodiversity and disrupting nutrient cycling. Regulating services are also affected, through increased greenhouse gas emissions, shoreline erosion and flooding, altered disease dynamics and changes in lake-effect snowfall. Provisioning services, such as freshwater supply and fisheries, are increasingly vulnerable to harmful algal blooms, infrastructure disruptions, and reduced habitat for cold-water species. Cultural and recreational activities including ice fishing, Indigenous traditions, and winter tourism are also threatened, while unstable ice may increase drowning risks. Although reduced ice cover may benefit navigation and summer recreation, these gains are outweighed by broader ecological and cultural losses. Collectively, these findings show that lake ice functions as a mediating variable regulating interconnected ecological and societal processes. Its loss threatens ecosystem resilience and heightens socioeconomic vulnerabilities for the 40 million people who depend on the Great Lakes. Addressing these challenges will require cross-border cooperation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF009213","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149355877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microclimate, Vegetation, and Soil Response to Micro-Zonal Solar Photovoltaic Patterning in a Humid Sub-Tropical Agrivoltaic Grazing System","authors":"T. Bacon,&nbsp;A. C. Monlezun,&nbsp;N. de Vries,&nbsp;M. Hong,&nbsp;K. Paustian","doi":"10.1029/2026EF009322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF009322","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Agrivoltaic grazing systems, or the integration of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy generation with livestock grazing, are the most common form of multi-use solar energy in the United States and much of the world. However, there is a substantial gap in our understanding of the ecological impacts of combining PV and grazing in these novel ecosystems. Addressing this gap, we present data from the first 2 years of a study characterizing the interacting effects of PV infrastructure with land management (sheep grazing and mowing) in the Southeastern US. We observed spatial and temporal solar radiation and precipitation patterning among micro-zones unique to the humid-subtropical climate region and found that the PV modules maintained higher soil moisture than in the absence of PV, across all micro-zones, with more dramatic differences observed during drier periods. Despite the significant patterning of microclimate conditions, we found no significant difference in above-ground primary productivity across any micro-zones or between management treatments within the array. Three years after construction, we detected no significant difference in soil carbon stocks across micro-zones.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF009322","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149311401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Manhattan Pluvial Flood Simulations Under Two Extreme Rainfall Scenarios Show Similar Severity Patterns but Contrasting Peak Timing Across Districts","authors":"SeokKoo Kang","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008707","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Urban pluvial flooding is often summarized by peak depth, peak extent, or cumulative burden, but these metrics do not distinguish when flooding first becomes hazardous from when the hazardous area becomes largest. This study introduces an activation–occupancy framework to quantify these two times and applies it to building-resolving shallow-water simulations of Manhattan (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 <mn>55</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} 55$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mtext>km</mtext>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${text{km}}^{2}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> at <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 <mn>1.5</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} 1.5$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> m resolution) under an Ida-derived hyetograph and New York City's 1-hr design storm. Under the Ida-derived rainfall at the 0.3-m threshold, district activation peaks occur within a 35-min span, whereas the times of maximum hazard extent are much more dispersed. Under the shorter design storm, peak timing compresses sharply. Rainfall is spatially uniform in both simulations, so the 35-min activation spread reflects routing alone and provides a lower bound on the variability of activation timing; spatial rainfall heterogeneity lies outside the modeled scenarios. Across the two modeled rainfall scenarios, severe-flooding geography remains broadly consistent: the same seven districts exceed the borough reference at 0.2, 0.3, and 0.4 m, with the strongest rank preservation for eventual extent and hazardous area–time burden. At 0.5 m, that set contracts to six because Lower East Side/Chinatown falls just below the borough reference in both scenarios. East Harlem remains the principal exception in design-storm timing at the deeper thresholds. These diagnostics distinguish severity patterns relevant to adaptation from scenario-specific timing information for warning and response.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008707","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149311404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"More Frequent, Faster, and Seasonally Reorganized Drought-to-Pluvial Transitions in U.S. Cities","authors":"Julio Copana,&nbsp;Farshid Vahedifard,&nbsp;Amir AghaKouchak","doi":"10.1029/2026EF009237","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF009237","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hydroclimatic variability is projected to intensify under continued warming, yet the evolving likelihood, rapidness, and seasonal timing of drought-to-pluvial transitions remain poorly quantified. Here, we develop a probabilistic framework that integrates a severity-resolved Markov formulation to estimate conditional drought-to-pluvial transition probabilities, Event Coincidence Analysis to quantify Relief Time (TR; the interval between drought amelioration and subsequent pluvial onset), and circular statistics to characterize the seasonal timing of post-drought pluvial occurrence. We apply this framework to the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index derived from a 20-member ensemble of downscaled climate-model projections for 27 U.S. cities representing all nine National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Regions. Results reveal a systematic reorganization of drought-to-pluvial dynamics under future warming. For severe drought thresholds, drought-to-pluvial transitions increase by approximately 132%–154%, while severe drought states increase by 128%–203% relative to historical conditions. Across most cities, Relief Time shortens by 0.1–0.3 months, indicating increasingly abrupt transitions from drought to wet conditions. Seasonal timing also reorganizes, with the first post-drought pluvial event shifting by approximately 1–3 months in many regions. Joint changes in transition probability and TR reveal distinct regional acceleration regimes characterized by increasing transition frequency, increasing abruptness, or both. The findings indicate that future drought recovery may increasingly occur through faster, more frequent, and seasonally altered transitions to wet conditions. The proposed framework provides transferable metrics for diagnosing drought-to-pluvial behavior and offers actionable insights for flood-risk assessment, water-resource management, and climate adaptation under a warming climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF009237","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149312840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Investigation of the Characteristics of Indian Summer Monsoon Low-Pressure Systems Under Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering","authors":"Mahendra Singh,&nbsp;Govindasamy Bala,&nbsp;Ashwin K. Seshadri","doi":"10.1029/2026EF009141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF009141","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Monsoon Low-Pressure Systems (LPSs) that govern the rainfall of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) contribute more than half of its rainfall and extreme rainfall events. In this study, we explore how LPS activity changes under greenhouse warming and Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention (SAI) using simulations from the fully coupled CESM2.1.3 climate model. We simulate three different climate scenarios: CTRL (control climate), 2XCO2 (doubling of <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>C</mi>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>O</mi>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $C{O}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>), and UNIFORM (a globally uniform stratospheric sulfate aerosol forcing superimposed on the 2XCO2 climate). In the 2XCO2 simulation, the global mean surface temperature increases by 3.22 K, accompanied by a weakened ISM circulation, reflected in a weaker Walker circulation, reduced vertical zonal wind shear, and weaker low-level Barotropic Shear (BS). However, despite 6% increase in the All-India rainfall (AIR) due to increased atmospheric water vapor, the total count of LPSs and LPS days decreases by approximately 9%–14%, but the systems on average produce stronger rainfall and extreme rainfall events in central and northern India. The UNIFORM scenario restores global mean surface temperature within 0.03 K of CTRL and partially revives monsoon circulation, BS, and recovers LPS frequency and spatial distribution toward CTRL levels. However, this aerosol experiment forcing suppresses the hydrological cycle, decreasing atmospheric moisture and AIR by 3.82% compared to CTRL (9.28% relative to 2XCO2), along with weakened LPS rainfall and extreme rainfall events. In summary, while uniform SAI can partially revive monsoon circulation and LPS activity, it simultaneously suppresses the thermodynamically driven increase in rainfall and extreme rainfall events associated with greenhouse warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF009141","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149312449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}