Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Comprehensive Evaluation of Water-Retention and Cooling Capacities of Urban Green Space Under Different Climatic Conditions Across China","authors":"Jianping Wu,&nbsp;Zhenzhen Xiao,&nbsp;Chaoqun Zhang,&nbsp;Wenting Yan,&nbsp;Jiashun Ren,&nbsp;Ziyin Liao,&nbsp;Raffaele Lafortezza,&nbsp;Xueyan Li,&nbsp;Yongxian Su","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004757","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004757","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Urban green spaces play a crucial role in addressing pressing environmental challenges, such as alleviating the urban heat island effect and enhancing water retention. However, there remains a research gap in understanding the simultaneous benefits of water-retention and cooling capacities, especially under the diverse climatic conditions across China. Utilizing robust methodologies and remote sensing data, our study evaluates the dynamic interplay between aridity index (AI) and retention-cooling performances of urban green spaces in both cold and warm season from 2003 to 2018. Results demonstrated that water-retention capacity is more effective in relatively arid regions, whereas cooling capacity is more pronounced in humid regions, with both effects being largely season-dependent. In addition, green space proportion significantly influences the relationship between AI and retention-cooling performances, particularly for cooling capacity, which exhibits opposite trends between cold and warm seasons. Future projection analysis indicate that climate change scenarios could significantly alter retention-cooling performances, potentially leading to notable deviations from the patterns observed during the historical periods across different climate zones, with an increasing dependence on changes in local climatic conditions. The inconsistent performance of urban green spaces in terms of water-retention and cooling across seasons and various climate regions, highlighting the importance of context-specific greening strategies to sustain and enhance urban resilience to future climate change in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004757","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the Effect of Glacier Runoff Changes on Basin Runoff and Agricultural Production in the Indus, Amu Darya, and Tarim Interior Basins","authors":"R. Calvo-Gallardo,&nbsp;F. Lambert,&nbsp;N. Álamos,&nbsp;A. Urquiza","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005064","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is leading to a substantial reduction in glacier mass, and it is anticipated that during this century, the peak water contribution of glaciers to runoff will occur in major glacierized basins around the world. Glacier runoff is a crucial source of water in mountain basins, and a decrease in its contribution can affect agricultural production. In this study, we modeled the agricultural sector's response to changes in glacier runoff in the Asian basins of Amu Darya, Tarim Interior, and Indus, using the Global Change Analysis Model, which was driven by surface runoff derived from the Xanthos hydrological model and the Open Global Glacier Model. Our findings indicate that under SSP5-8.5, there is an increase in accessible water during the Peak-Water Glacier Runoff compared to the Historical Glacier Runoff scenario. However, accessible water under SSP58.5 falls below the Historical Glacier Runoff scenario in the last decades of the 21st century. The initial increase in accessible water drives the GCAM agricultural model to increase the production of oil crops, root tubers, sugar crops, and fruits, but only temporarily until peak glacier runoff occurrence. In Pakistan, we observe the adaptive response of neighboring basins (increased production) to a reduction in crop production in the Amu Darya and Indus and vice versa. Our results support the argument that policymakers should implement a holistic long-term perspective, in which the apparent positive economic effect of the temporary increase in accessible water is balanced with the threat to intergenerational access to freshwater and ecosystem conservation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005064","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143889005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Low-Altitude High-Latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Is Feasible With Existing Aircraft","authors":"Alistair Duffey,&nbsp;Matthew Henry,&nbsp;Wake Smith,&nbsp;Michel Tsamados,&nbsp;Peter J. Irvine","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005567","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005567","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is a proposed method of climate intervention in which aerosols or their precursors would be injected into the stratosphere to reduce or halt global warming. It is often assumed that to produce a substantial global cooling, SAI would require a fleet of specially designed high-altitude aircraft. However, in the extra-tropics, where the tropopause is lower, injection into the stratosphere using existing large jets is plausible. Here, we simulate an ensemble of 41 short stratospheric aerosol injection simulations in the UK Earth System Model in which we vary the altitude, latitude, and season of <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mtext>SO</mtext>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${text{SO}}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> injection. For each simulation, we diagnose aerosol optical depth and radiative forcing and estimate the global cooling under a sustained deployment. For altitudes up to around 14 km, high-latitude injection maximizes global forcing efficiency. Aerosol lifetime variation is the largest contributor to changes in efficiency with injection location. Seasonal SAI deployment with low-altitude (13 km) and high-latitude (60°N/S) injection achieves 35% of the forcing efficiency of a high-altitude (20 km), annually constant, sub-tropical (30°N/S) strategy. Low-altitude high-latitude SAI would have strongly reduced efficiency and therefore increased side-effects for a given global cooling. It would also produce a more polar cooling distribution, with reduced efficacy in the tropics. However, it would face lower technical barriers because existing large jets could be used for deployment. This could imply an increase in the number of actors able to deploy SAI, an earlier potential start date, and perhaps a greater risk of unilateral deployment.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005567","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143879816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-Objective Optimization of the Food-Energy-Water Nexus Problem: A Review of the Key Concepts and Emerging Opportunities in Objective Functions, Decision Variables, and Optimization Techniques","authors":"Isaac Okola,&nbsp;Elisha Opiyo Omulo,&nbsp;Daniel Orwa Ochieng,&nbsp;Gilbert Ouma","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004718","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004718","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Food, energy, and water are basic needs that are quite important in livelihood sustainability. In most situations, their interactions make trade-offs between these key areas of need challenging to attain. For the Food-Energy-Water Nexus (FEWN), there exists a need for appropriate decision-making tools that may help to surmount such challenges. Multiobjective Optimization Approaches (MOAs) have emerged as potential solutions within this domain. The major components explored in this review include the objective functions, decision variables, and optimization techniques within MOAs. Despite their potential, few studies comprehensively address the key concepts of these components, the role of stakeholder involvement, the limitations of existing research, and the emerging technological opportunities that could enhance MOAs in the FEWN. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses protocol, was combined with Meta-ethnography to select, review, and analyze the literature. The data synthesis was done by meta-ethnography, finding key terms to categorize objective functions, decision variables, and optimization techniques and developing key concepts related to MOAs in the FEWN. Key terms for categorizing objective functions are maximizing economic, environmental, and social benefits and food, energy, and water security. For the decision variables, the key terms include availability, accessibility, and sufficiency, while the optimization techniques are Mathematical Programming and Metaheuristics. Besides, emerging technologies create substantial opportunities to improve the performance of MOAs. Therefore, there is a need to develop MOAs that integrate economic, environmental, and social aspects to support the sustainability of the FEWN.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004718","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143875579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of Anthropogenic Emission Change Scenarios on U.S. Water and Carbon Balances at National and State Scales in a Changing Climate","authors":"L. Zhang,&nbsp;K. Duan,&nbsp;Y. Zhang,&nbsp;G. Sun,&nbsp;X. Liang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004853","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004853","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The U.S. water supply and carbon sequestration are increasingly threatened by future climate change and air pollution. This study investigates the ecohydrological responses to the individual and combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emission (referring only to air pollutants, excluding greenhouse gases) changes at two spatial scales by coupling a regional online-coupled meteorology and chemistry model (WRF-Chem) and a water balance model (WaSSI). Combined effects of climate change and anthropogenic emission changes in 2046–2055 relative to 2001–2010 over the US enhance hydrological cycle and carbon sequestration. However, a drying trend occurs in the central and part of the western U.S. Climate change is projected to dominate the ecohydrological changes in most regions. Anthropogenic emission changes under 2001–2010 climate conditions cools down inland water resource regions with 0.01–0.15°C, moisturizes the east and dry the west U.S. More stringent anthropogenic emission control enhances precipitation and ecosystem production in the east and west but has an opposite trend in the central U.S. The ecohydrological modeling in California and North Carolina based on 4-km resolution meteorological data in 2050 and 2005 shows varying changes in magnitudes and spatial patterns compared to results based on 36-km resolution meteorological data. Projected changes in air pollutant emissions may accelerate climatic warming in coastal areas and the state of New Mexico and decrease precipitation, runoff, and carbon sequestration in part of the western U.S. Strategies to address future possible problems such as heatwaves, water stress, and ecosystem productivity should consider the varying interplay between air quality control and climate change at different spatial scales.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004853","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143875581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Rice Paddy Inventory (GRPI): A High-Resolution Inventory of Methane Emissions From Rice Agriculture Based on Landsat Satellite Inundation Data","authors":"Zichong Chen,&nbsp;Haipeng Lin,&nbsp;Nicholas Balasus,&nbsp;Andy Hardy,&nbsp;James D. East,&nbsp;Yuzhong Zhang,&nbsp;Benjamin R. K. Runkle,&nbsp;Sarah E. Hancock,&nbsp;Charles A. Taylor,&nbsp;Xinming Du,&nbsp;Bjoern Ole Sander,&nbsp;Daniel J. Jacob","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005479","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005479","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rice agriculture is a major source of atmospheric methane, but current emission inventories are highly uncertain, mostly due to poor rice-specific inundation data. Inversions of atmospheric methane observations can help to better quantify rice emissions but require high-resolution prior information on the location and timing of emissions. Here we use Landsat satellite data at 30 m resolution to map the global monthly distribution of rice paddy fractional areas on a 0.1° × 0.1° (∼10 × 10 km) grid by optimizing an algorithm for flooded vegetation and combining it with a 30 m global cropland database and rice-specific data. We validate this global rice paddy map with an independent US rice database and with seasonal flux measurements from the FLUXNET CH₄ network, estimating errors on rice area fraction of 31% on the 0.1° × 0.1° grid and 10% regionally. We combine the rice paddy map with an extensive global data set of emission factors (EFs) per unit of rice paddy area. The resulting Global Rice Paddy Inventory (GRPI) provides methane emission estimates at 0.1° × 0.1° (∼10 × 10 km) spatial resolution and monthly resolution. Our global emission of 39.3 ± 4.7 Tg a⁻¹ for 2022 (best estimate and error standard deviation) is higher than previous inventories that use outdated rice maps and IPCC-recommended EFs now considered to be too low. China is the largest rice emitter in GRPI (8.2 ± 1.0 Tg a⁻¹), followed by India (6.5 ± 1.0 Tg a⁻¹), Bangladesh (5.7 ± 1.2 Tg a⁻¹), Vietnam (5.7 ± 1.0 Tg a⁻¹), and Thailand (4.4 ± 0.9 Tg a⁻¹). These five countries together account for 78% of global total rice emissions. Seasonality of emissions varies considerably between and within individual countries reflecting differences in climate and crop practices. We define a rice methane intensity (methane emission per unit of rice produced) to assess the potential of mitigating methane emission without compromising food security. We find national methane intensities ranging from 10 to 120 kg methane per ton of rice produced (global mean 51) for major rice-growing countries. Countries can achieve low intensities with high-yield cultivars, upland rice agriculture, water management, and organic matter management.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005479","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143875580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing Fire Weather Season Overlap Between North America and Australia Challenges Firefighting Cooperation","authors":"Doug Richardson,&nbsp;Andreia F. S. Ribeiro,&nbsp;Fulden Batibeniz,&nbsp;Yann Quilcaille,&nbsp;Andrea S. Taschetto,&nbsp;Andrew J. Pitman,&nbsp;Jakob Zscheischler","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005030","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The USA, Canada and Australia are members of an international partnership that shares firefighting resources, including equipment and personnel. This partnership is effective because fire risk between Australia and North America is historically asynchronous. However, climate change is causing longer fire seasons in both regions, increasing the likelihood of simultaneous fire risk and threatening the partnership's viability. We focus on spatially compounding fire weather as the annual number of days on which the fire seasons in Australia and North America overlap, investigating historical and future projections of fire weather season lengths. We use the Canadian Fire Weather Index and compute season length statistics using ERA5 reanalysis data together with historical and future projections from four CMIP6 single model initial-condition large ensembles. Our analysis shows that the length of fire weather season overlap between eastern Australia and western North America has increased by approximately one day per year since 1979. The interannual variability of overlap is driven primarily by the variability in Australia, with correlations between that region's fire weather season length and the degree of overlap exceeding 0.9. Composites of ERA5 and CMIP6 sea surface temperatures suggest a link between the interannual variability of overlap and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, despite this climate mode's opposing relationship with fire weather in the two regions. Finally, we find that the overlap is projected to increase by <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>4 to <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>29 days annually by 2050. We conclude that an increasing overlap of fire seasons is expected to constrain current resource-sharing agreements and shorten preparedness windows.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005030","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143871581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advancing the Modeling of Future Climate and Innovation Impacts on Perennial Crops to Support Adaptation: A Case Study of California Almonds","authors":"Shuaiqi Wu,&nbsp;Prudentia Gugulethu Zikalala,&nbsp;Sequoia Alba,&nbsp;Katherine S. Jarvis-Shean,&nbsp;Isaya Kisekka,&nbsp;Mira Segaran,&nbsp;Richard Snyder,&nbsp;Erwan Monier","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005033","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Perennial crops are vital to the global food supply, providing valuable nutrition and economic benefits, but are at risk of severe climate damages. Most climate research has focused on major annual crops like cereals and has focused on the overall impact of climate change on yields providing limited actionable knowledge to support adaptation. In this study, we bring together climate scientists, biometeorology specialists, plant scientists, and agricultural engineers to develop a new perennial crop modeling framework that integrates climate modeling, horticulture and agronomy science, and statistical modeling. We apply this framework to California almonds as a case study, because they offer robust data to calibrate and evaluate our model. Our model quantifies the influence of climate in each almond development stage and of innovation on county-level yields. We simulate future yield changes under a large multi-model ensemble of high-resolution climate simulations and innovation scenarios. We find that climate change could lead to yield losses of 17% by 2100 under moderate warming (SSP245) and 49% under high warming (SSP585); however, we also find that sustained innovation gains could more than offset these negative climate impacts. We identify increasing minimum temperatures and humidity during the bloom and pollination period as well as heat stress during the growing period as the main drivers of yield losses. We discuss synergistic strategies to limit the negative impacts of climate change and to ensure continued gains from innovation. This modeling approach could provide valuable insights into climate adaptation strategies for other perennial crops and regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005033","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143871583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Small Commercial Fish Biomass Limits the Catch Potential in the High Seas","authors":"J. Guiet,&nbsp;D. Bianchi,&nbsp;K. J. N. Scherrer,&nbsp;R. F. Heneghan,&nbsp;E. D. Galbraith","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004571","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004571","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The High Seas, lying beyond the boundaries of nations' Exclusive Economic Zones, cover most of the ocean surface and host half of marine primary production. Yet, a tiny fraction of global wild fish catch comes from the High Seas, despite intensifying industrial fishing efforts. The paradoxically small fish catch could reflect economic barriers to exploiting the High Seas - such as the difficulty and cost of fishing in remote ocean parts - or ecological features resulting in a small biomass of commercial fish (10g–100 kg) relative to primary production. We use the coupled biological-economic model BOATS to estimate contributing factors, comparing observed catches with simulations where: (a) fishing cost depends on distance from shore and seafloor depth; (b) catchability depends on seafloor depth or vertical habitat extent; (c) regions with micronutrient limitation have reduced biomass production; (d) the trophic transfer of energy from primary production to demersal food webs depends on water depth; and (e) High Seas biomass migrates to coastal regions. The dominant factor is ecological: commercial fish communities receive much primary production in shallow waters but less in deep waters, limiting exploitable biomass in High Seas. Other factors play a secondary role, with migrations having a potentially large but uncertain role, while economic factors have smaller effects. We estimate the High Seas hosted 25<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>%</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $%$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> of a global 2.8 <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>±</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $pm $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> 0.7 Gt biomass in the early 20th century, changing to 47% of a global 1.5 <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>±</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $pm $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> 0.4 Gt of commercial fish biomass during the early 21st century. Our results stress the limited potential of High Seas to provide food through wild capture fisheries.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004571","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143871582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change","authors":"Rohini S. Gupta,&nbsp;Scott Steinschneider,&nbsp;Patrick M. Reed","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005465","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005465","url":null,"abstract":"<p>California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate-change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree-ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food-Energy-Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi-year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005465","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143866023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}