Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Increased Phosphorus Losses in the Food System in China and Region-Specific Mitigation Strategies to Ensure Losses Below Safe Limits","authors":"Jichen Zhou,&nbsp;Wim de Vries,&nbsp;Lin Ma,&nbsp;Xiaoqiang Jiao,&nbsp;Kai Zhang,&nbsp;Yang Lyu,&nbsp;Zed Rengel,&nbsp;Fusuo Zhang,&nbsp;Jianbo Shen","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004907","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004907","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Sustainable phosphorus (P) resource management is crucial for food security and environmental sustainability. Overuse of P in intensive cropping systems has led to severe eutrophication problems. Here, we examined the trends and driving factors of (a) P losses from the food chain in 31 provinces in China over the period 1980–2016 and (b) predicted 2030 losses under different scenarios using the NUFER model and the Geographical Detector model. The P losses increased 5-fold between 1980 and 2016. Population density and livestock density are the main forces driving P losses. Large spatial variability exists in P losses across the country, with Central South and Southeast China regions as the hotspot areas. The scenario analysis showed that reduction of P pollution below safe levels can be achieved in most Chinese provinces through improved nutrient management adapted to site conditions. In low-risk regions, priority should be given to reducing mineral P fertilizer input and P losses in cropping system, while avoiding crop yield decline. In medium-risk regions, the focus should be on reconnecting livestock and crop production to enhance P recycling. In high-risk regions, comprehensive P management measures should be implemented across the entire food chain, including crop production, animal production, food processing, and human consumption systems. Specific actions include reducing livestock density, increasing fertilizer application taxes, improving food processing technologies, and adjusting dietary structures. The findings are critical to support policies for achieving region-specific sustainable P resource management across China.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004907","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microbially-Mediated Soil Carbon-Nitrogen Dynamics in Response to Future Soil Moisture Change","authors":"Wanyu Li,&nbsp;Gangsheng Wang,&nbsp;Zirui Mu,&nbsp;Shanshan Qi,&nbsp;Shuhao Zhou,&nbsp;Daifeng Xiang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005521","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The interactions between soil carbon and nitrogen (C-N) processes with environmental factors, particularly soil moisture, are critical to maintaining soil ecosystem functions. However, the lagged effects of future change in soil moisture on soil C-N dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we employed the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition model to simulate the long-term impacts of future soil moisture variation on soil C-N dynamics using the standardized soil moisture index (SSI) across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our results demonstrated that soil C-N dynamics exhibited both lagged and cumulative responses to moisture fluctuations over extended periods. Active microbes were closely associated with short-term (3-month) change in soil moisture, whereas soil organic C (SOC) and total N (TN) exhibited stronger correlations over extended periods (72 months). Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, SOC and TN decreased in wet conditions but increased during droughts, with increases of 28.9% and 13.1%, respectively, under extreme drought conditions. We found that the active microbial biomass was significantly more sensitive to soil moisture variation than total microbial biomass, especially under extreme drought conditions. Furthermore, microbes and enzymes were key drivers of soil C-N transformations, with soil enzymes displaying the highest correlation with SSI (nonlinear correlation coefficient based on mutual information = 0.81). This study establishes a foundational relationship between soil C-N variables and soil moisture, accounting for lag effects, to enhance our understanding of the complex responses of these variables under future climate change scenarios.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005521","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying CO2 and Non-CO2 Contributions to Climate Change Under 1.5°C and 2°C Adaptive Emission Scenarios","authors":"Donghyun Lee,&nbsp;Sarah N. Sparrow,&nbsp;Matteo Willeit,&nbsp;Paulo Ceppi,&nbsp;Myles R. Allen","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005580","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005580","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The individual contributions of various human-induced forcings under scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement targets are highly uncertain. To quantify this uncertainty, we analyze three types of models with physical parameter perturbed large ensembles under global warming levels of 1.5 and 2.0°C. The scenarios use adaptive CO₂ emissions, while non-CO₂ emissions are prescribed. The residual emission budgets in the scenarios are measured in terms of CO₂ forcing equivalent (CO₂-fe). Our simulations quantify approximately 0.8 (0.2–1.3 for a 90% confidence interval) and 1.9 (0.9–3.0) TtCO₂-fe for the 1.5 and 2.0°C targets by the end of the 21st century. About 37.5% (73.7%) of the budget for 1.5°C (2.0°C) originates from the CO₂ emission pathways, highlighting the importance of non-CO₂ forcings. Aerosols dominate the uncertainty in non-CO₂ contributions to global responses in both temperature and precipitation. Our modeling results underline the need to constrain the response to each climate forcing, particularly aerosol, to build an accurate mitigation and adaptation plan under the pledges of the Paris Agreement. Moreover, we demonstrate robust differences in global and regional temperature and precipitation responses between the higher and lower CO₂ emission scenarios, highlighting the significance of carbon neutrality.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005580","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes in Compound Extreme Events and Their Impacts on Cropland Productivity in China, 1985–2019","authors":"Zejin Liu,&nbsp;Limin Jiao,&nbsp;Xihong Lian","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005038","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While the influence of compound extreme events is gaining attention with advancing extreme climate research, the variations in their impacts on regional crop production require further exploration. Here, we primarily analyze the changes in compound hot-dry events and compound hot-wet events in China from 1985 to 2019, based on meteorological observations from 686 stations. Then, their contributions to losses in cropland net primary productivity (CNPP) are identified using the extreme gradient boosting and Shapley additive explanations models. Results indicate that compound extreme events have become increasingly frequent, persistent, and severe over the past 35 years. With the increasing risks of compound extreme events, greater CNPP losses are observed in the northern regions compared to the southern regions. Throughout the growing season, CNPP losses caused by compound extreme events initially increase, peak in summer, and then gradually decrease. CNPP losses in China are primarily influenced by compound hot-dry events. From north to south, the events dominating CNPP losses shift sequentially from compound daytime hot and dry events to compound day-night hot and dry events, and finally to compound nighttime hot and dry events. This study explores the threats posed by compound extreme events to regional crop production and provides new insights into extreme climate risks in China, supporting climate-adaptive agricultural development.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005038","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Historical and Projected Cropland Impacts of Heatwaves in Central Asia Under Climate Change","authors":"Tao Li,&nbsp;Fengjiao Song,&nbsp;Jiayu Bao,&nbsp;Philippe De Maeyer,&nbsp;Ye Yuan,&nbsp;Xiaoran Huang,&nbsp;Tao Yu,&nbsp;Naibi Sulei,&nbsp;Anming Bao,&nbsp;Peter Goethals","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005595","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005595","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Central Asia (CA) is a critical agricultural region, contributing significantly to global food and cotton production, yet it faces increasing threats from extreme heatwaves (HWs) due to global warming. Despite this, the specific impacts of historical and future HWs on CA's cropland remain underexplored. Here, using five bias-corrected global circulation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3b (ISIMIP3b), we present a detailed analysis of CA's cropland exposure to HWs from historical periods (1995–2014) and under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) for 2021–2100. Compared to historical levels, we find that exposure to heatwave frequency could increase by 199% by 2081–2100 under SSP126, while exposure to heatwave duration could rise by as much as 852% and 1143% under SSP370 and SSP585, respectively. Northern Kazakhstan emerges as particularly vulnerable, with the highest exposure levels across scenarios. Interactive effects between climate shifts and land-use changes are the dominant contributors, accounting for over 50% of total exposure in each scenario. These findings highlight CA's vulnerability to HWs under various climate pathways, emphasizing the urgency of targeted adaptation strategies to protect regional agricultural resilience and, by extension, global food security.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005595","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future Soil Erosion Risk in China: Differences in Erosion Driven by General and Extreme Precipitation Under Climate Change","authors":"Changyan Yin,&nbsp;Chenyun Bai,&nbsp;Yuanjun Zhu,&nbsp;Ming'an Shao,&nbsp;Xiaoyang Han,&nbsp;Jiangbo Qiao","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005390","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005390","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Soil erosion status is a comprehensive indicator reflecting the quality and stability of ecosystems. Soil erosion changes in China are becoming more unclear due to climate change and intensified human activity. Within the framework of climate change, this study treats the rainfall erosion factor as a dynamic factor and examines three types of contrasting precipitation—general, heavy, and extreme—through integrates the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation and Geographic Information Systems to reveal differences in water erosion driven by varying intensities of precipitation. The results reveal that over 63% of China's land area has experienced soil erosion during the historical period (1980–2022), with slight erosion being the most common. Severe water erosion is predominantly found in the Southwest Basin, the Yangtze River Basin, and the Yellow River basin. The multi-year average soil erosion rate in China is estimated at 2.46 t·ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, with R95P and R99P contributing 26.50% and 7.71%, respectively. Future projections (2023–2100) indicate that soil erosion driven by PRCPTOT, R95P, and R99P could increase by 22%–91% under SSP5-RCP8.5 and SSP2-RCP4.5 scenarios. Overall, climate change has a limited effect on the spatial pattern of soil erosion in China, mainly influencing the intensity and extent of water erosion and adversely impacting most regions. Extreme precipitation is more sensitive to climate change, making future erosion risks associated with it a critical concern. These findings can guide decision-makers and resource managers in regional planning to enhance resilience to climate change and secure water and food resources.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005390","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temporal and Phenological Modulation of the Impact of Increasing Drought Conditions on Vegetation Growth in a Humid Big River Basin: Insights From Global Comparisons","authors":"Junlan Xiao,&nbsp;César Terrer,&nbsp;Pierre Gentine,&nbsp;Ryunosuke Tateno,&nbsp;Lei Fan,&nbsp;Mingguo Ma,&nbsp;Yuemin Yue,&nbsp;Wenping Yuan,&nbsp;Josep Peñuelas,&nbsp;Weiyu Shi","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005720","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005720","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As the upward trend in extreme drought continues with climate change, terrestrial vegetation growth is assumed to become largely reduced. We investigated anomalies of remote sensing vegetation indexes under droughts across the upper Yangtze River (UYR) basin, characterized as humid but having experienced frequent seasonal droughts from 2000. Then we compared global big river basins by focusing on the Nile and Congo basins, which have similar characteristics to the UYR. The vegetation across the UYR was affected by water stress in recent years but shows reduced sensitivity to drought. The compound effect of drought timing and phenology largely drives the response. Results show that late-season droughts generally have a greater impact on vegetation growth compared to early season droughts, with alpine grasslands showing particularly pronounced responses due to their ecological features such as shallow root depth and aggressive hydrological behavior. The Nile basin, similar to the UYR basin, exhibits pronounced late-season vegetation vulnerability, highlighting shared patterns of drought impact across heterogeneous landscapes. In contrast, the tropical rainforests in the Congo basin demonstrate greater resilience, supported by complex root systems, dense canopies, and low cloud cover that reduces evaporation. This study underscores the importance of considering regional ecological characteristics, drought timing, and phenological stages in assessing vegetation responses to drought. These insights are critical for predicting and managing ecosystem resilience under changing climatic conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005720","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World Fisheries","authors":"O. Maury,&nbsp;D. P. Tittensor,&nbsp;T. D. Eddy,&nbsp;E. H. Allison,&nbsp;T. Bahri,&nbsp;N. Barrier,&nbsp;L. Campling,&nbsp;W. W. L. Cheung,&nbsp;K. Frieler,&nbsp;E. A. Fulton,&nbsp;P. Guillotreau,&nbsp;R. F. Heneghan,&nbsp;V. W. Y. Lam,&nbsp;D. Leclère,&nbsp;M. Lengaigne,&nbsp;H. Lotze-Campen,&nbsp;C. Novaglio,&nbsp;K. Ortega-Cisneros,&nbsp;J. Rault,&nbsp;J. Schewe,&nbsp;Y.-J. Shin,&nbsp;H. Sloterdijk,&nbsp;D. Squires,&nbsp;U. R. Sumaila,&nbsp;A. N. Tidd,&nbsp;B. van Ruijven,&nbsp;J. Blanchard","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004851","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004851","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) has dedicated a decade to unraveling the future impacts of climate change on marine animal biomass. FishMIP is now preparing a new simulation protocol to assess the combined effects of both climate and socio-economic changes on marine fisheries and ecosystems. This protocol will be based on the Ocean System Pathways (OSPs), a new set of socio-economic scenarios derived from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) widely used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The OSPs extend the SSPs to the economic, governance, management and socio-cultural contexts of large pelagic, small pelagic, benthic-demersal and emerging fisheries, as well as mariculture. Comprising qualitative storylines, quantitative model driver pathways and a “plug-in-model” framework, the OSPs will enable a heterogeneous suite of ecosystem models to simulate fisheries dynamics in a standardised way. This paper introduces this OSP framework and the simulation protocol that FishMIP will implement to explore future ocean social-ecological systems holistically, with a focus on critical issues such as climate justice, global food security, equitable fisheries, aquaculture development, fisheries management, and biodiversity conservation. Ultimately, the OSP framework is tailored to contribute to the synthesis work of the IPCC. It also aims to inform ongoing policy processes within the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Finally, it seeks to support the synthesis work of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), with a particular focus on studying pathways relevant for the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004851","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Targeted Synergistic Priorities for Conserving Biodiversity, Carbon, and Water on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Chongchong Ye,&nbsp;Shuai Wang,&nbsp;Xutong Wu,&nbsp;Tien Ming Lee,&nbsp;Yi Wang,&nbsp;Fangli Wei,&nbsp;Yanxu Liu,&nbsp;Bin Sun,&nbsp;Li Yang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004802","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004802","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) highlights developing effective targets to halt and reverse the biodiversity and ecosystem services crisis. Although biodiversity and ecosystem services are tightly interlinked and interact in complex ways, a uniform global or national target has long ignored their interdependencies and uneven distribution to guide region- or ecoregion-specific planning. Here, we use a flexible and stepwise approach, incorporating high conservation values of biodiversity, carbon and water and their complex interactions, to identify three targeted priority areas at regional and ecological jurisdictions on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). We find that 49% of the targeted priority areas could effectively protect about 60% of biodiversity, carbon, and water at the ecoregion scale. However, at the regional scale, 48% of the targeted priority areas have the potential to conserve up to 70% of biodiversity, carbon and water. Although the QTP has achieved the target three of the Kunming-Montreal GBF (i.e., to protect 30% of areas), more than 75% and 70% of priority areas remain unprotected at the regional and ecoregion scales, respectively. More importantly, over 55% of the unprotected priority areas at the regional scale are under moderate to high human pressure. Our spatially explicit insights demonstrate the importance of expanding existing protected areas on the QTP, while highlighting the potential of targeted conservation initiatives at the subnational level to ensure the Kunming-Montreal GBF in a more efficient manner.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004802","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Thirstwaves: Prolonged Periods of Agricultural Exposure to Extreme Atmospheric Evaporative Demand for Water","authors":"M. S. Kukal,&nbsp;M. Hobbins","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004870","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004870","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global atmospheric evaporative demand has increased, impacting agricultural productivity and water use. Traditionally, trend assessments have been limited to total evaporative demand, overlooking shifts in daily extremes, which are meaningful for agrohydrological outcomes yet largely unknown. Here, using a fully physical metric of evaporative demand, that is, standardized short crop reference evapotranspiration, we introduce the concept of thirstwaves—prolonged periods of extremely high evaporative demand—and analyze their characteristics during 1981–2021 growing seasons for the conterminous US. Findings show that long-term mean spatial patterns demonstrated by thirstwave characteristics do not follow that of total or mean evaporative demand. Weighted for cropland area harvested, thirstwave intensity, duration, and frequency have increased by 0.06 mm d⁻¹ decade⁻¹, 0.10 days decade⁻¹, and 0.39 events decade⁻¹, respectively during 1981–2021. Statistically significant trends appear across 17%, 7%, and 23% of cropland area for intensity, frequency, and duration. Not only have thirstwaves increased in severity, but the likelihood of no thirstwaves occurring during the growing season has significantly decreased. Our work proposes a novel metric to describe periods of extremely elevated evaporative demand and presents a systematic analysis of such conditions historically for US croplands.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004870","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}