Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Satellite-Based Estimates of Irrigation Water Use Versus Modeling Reconstructions: How Much do They Differ?","authors":"J. Dari, L. Brocca, P. Laluet, R. Morbidelli, C. Saltalippi, S. Modanesi, W. Dorigo, C. Albergel","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007572","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007572","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Knowing water amounts destined for agricultural practices, essentially consisting of irrigation water use (IWU), is essential for water resources management. Although explicit and consistent information on IWU is generally lacking worldwide, remote sensing and modeling platforms offer valuable solutions for estimating it. The objective of this work is to perform an intercomparison between satellite-based IWU products and modeling reconstructions over four main irrigation hotspots worldwide: the Contiguous United States (CONUS), the Ebro basin (Spain), India, and the Murray-Darling basin (Australia). Remote-sensing-based IWU estimated through Soil-Moisture-Inversion (SM-Inversion) and SM-Delta approaches are considered. As modeled data, five Global Hydrological Models are evaluated: H08, PCR-GLOBWB, WaterGAP, LPJmL, and QUAlloc. Reference irrigation volumes are exploited to assess which source is more reliable. Over CONUS and Murray-Darling basin, lower discrepancies between data sources (satellite or modeling) are detected. Referring to spatially-averaged IWU magnitudes, the comparison over CONUS provides <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mtext>RMSE</mtext>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $text{RMSE}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> ranging from 9.52 to 12.21 mm/month, <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mtext>BIAS</mtext>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $text{BIAS}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> between 3.24 and 7.06 mm/month, and Pearson correlation (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>r</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $r$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>) from 0.77 to 0.90. The same intervals for the Murray-Darling basin are 8.04–17.70 mm/month for <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mtext>RMSE</mtext>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $text{RMSE}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>, 4.81–12.63 mm/month for <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mtext>BIAS</mtext>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $text{BIAS}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>, and 0.42–0.85 for <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>r</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $r$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>. Consequently, over such areas, similar performances in reproducing actual irrigation amounts by satellite estimates and modeling reconstructions, when available, are found. Over the Ebro basin, where the strongest discrepancies are found, satellite-based data sets outperform model outputs","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007572","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149206201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Alaskan Glaciers in a Warming Climate","authors":"A. W. Wells,&nbsp;D. R. Rounce,&nbsp;B. S. Tober","doi":"10.1029/2026EF009035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF009035","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Glaciers across Alaska are undergoing rapid mass loss, with implications for sea-level rise, natural hazards, water resources, and more. Here, we utilize new snowline and melt extent observations of Alaskan glaciers at high spatiotemporal resolutions to improve projections to 2100. Specifically, we incorporate these observations into the calibration scheme for the large-scale Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM), and subsequently simulate future changes under various climate scenarios. We estimate that glaciers in Alaska will lose 49 ± 17% to 73 ± 26% of their 2015 mass by the end of the century, depending on the future climate. Nearly all small glaciers (&lt;1 km²) will disappear by 2100 regardless of the climate scenario, along with the smallest glacierized subregions of Alaska, namely, the Brooks and Talkeetna ranges. Across larger subregions, negative mass balance is projected to peak in the middle of the 21st century for the modest future warming scenario (i.e., SSP1-2.6), while negative mass balance continues to increase to 2100 for the most aggressive future warming scenario (SSP5-8.5). Much of these changes are attributed to increasing temperatures that cause greater melt in addition to a shift in early-winter precipitation from snow to rain which reduces accumulation and enhances melt by exposing the underlying ice earlier in the next ablation season. Of the remaining glaciers in 2100, 15%–60%, depending on the future climate, have no accumulation area and are thus committed to disappearance. Overall, the widespread loss of glaciers in Alaska by 2100 has implications on ecology, water resources, natural hazards, and tourism across the region.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF009035","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149206211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"No Net Increase in Ecosystem Water Limitation Under Greenhouse Warming","authors":"Jiameng Xu,&nbsp;Kaighin A. McColl,&nbsp;Alexis Berg,&nbsp;Yu Liang,&nbsp;Jian Yang,&nbsp;Yuanchao Fan","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008222","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008222","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Energy and water availability are essential controls on terrestrial ecosystem functions such as evapotranspiration. Accurately identifying the dominant regime of water or energy limitation on evapotranspiration is crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to climate change. Recent studies using Earth System Model (ESM) projections suggest widespread shifts from energy- to water-limited conditions under global warming. We demonstrate that incorporating a thermodynamically appropriate energy indicator fundamentally changes this projection. Surface energy availability for evapotranspiration and related ecosystem functions is primarily determined by net radiation (<i>R</i>_n) rather than downwelling shortwave radiation or air temperature. Using this <i>R</i>_n-based ecosystem limitation framework, we find no significant net increase in projected water limitation on either evapotranspiration or transpiration toward the end of the century. Idealized ESM CO₂ experiments attribute this pattern to CO₂-induced physiological effects on vegetation—primarily stomatal regulation and enhanced water-use efficiency—that largely dampen the increased water limitation from enhanced radiative forcing under greenhouse warming. Key physiological variables such as net primary production and leaf area index also show coherent and mechanistically interpretable responses to shifts in <i>R</i>_n-based water–energy limitation regimes in transitional zones. These findings are consistent with patterns reported in other ecohydrologically based studies and are supported by empirical evidence of reduced vegetation sensitivity to dry conditions under elevated CO₂. Our study bridges ecological and physical theories to improve ecosystem water-energy limitation analysis and provides a clear mechanistic understanding of future ecosystem dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008222","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149206160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adaptation Potential of Local Water Management Practices to Glacier Loss","authors":"Clara Gimeno Jésus,&nbsp;José Cuadros-Adriazola,&nbsp;Simon Moulds,&nbsp;Fabian Drenkhan,&nbsp;Jonathan Mackay,&nbsp;Nilton Montoya,&nbsp;Waldo Lavado-Casimiro,&nbsp;Pedro Rau,&nbsp;Wouter Buytaert","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008697","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008697","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change disproportionately affects mountain river basins, driving cryospheric changes and altering their hydrology. This has detrimental impacts on water resources, accentuating the need for robust adaptation strategies. Traditional engineering approaches can provide buffering capacity but are associated with high costs and limited flexibility. At the same time, local, small scale water management practices are gaining attention, yet evidence on their effectiveness remains limited. We evaluate the adaptation potential of common local practices, that is, headwater grassland regeneration, small surface storage, and artificial recharge, in the Vilcanota-Urubamba system, Peru. We find that, if properly managed, these interventions can substantially contribute to seasonal and interannual hydrological buffering and dry season water availability. However, when implemented in isolation, they are unlikely to fully offset climate impacts. Our results support the design of catchment-scale intervention portfolios for adaptation planning, with a combination of large, centralized infrastructure and distributed local interventions likely to provide the most effective solution.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008697","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149206159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reductions in Climate Zone Changes Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Compared to Unabated Warming","authors":"Jaylynn M. Brunelli,&nbsp;Michael S. Diamond","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008937","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008937","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As the goals of the Paris Agreement struggle to be met, interest in stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has increased due to its potential to reduce the impacts of anthropogenic warming. SAI would aim to cool the Earth by injecting sulfate aerosols or their precursors into the stratosphere, reflecting incoming sunlight back to space. Previous work has shown that SAI could produce regionally varying temperature and precipitation impacts, however, along with global mean drying. Climate classification systems serve as a potentially useful tool in quantifying how concerning these impacts may be. We evaluate the effectiveness of SAI by identifying the types and magnitude of climate zone changes over time, which we term “adaptation burdens.” A modified version of the Köppen-Trewartha climate classification system is used to identify changes in climate zones under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, a medium emissions scenario, and a scenario in which SAI is implemented such that global mean temperature follows that of the medium emissions scenario despite high greenhouse gas emissions. We find that changes in climate zones under this SAI scenario are similar in both magnitude and transition type to those under medium-tier emissions, while shifts under high emissions are significantly greater in magnitude and diverge further from the historical baseline. While all models analyzed agree that SAI reduces adaptation burdens in comparison to a high emissions scenario, they disagree on magnitudes and regional distributions, indicating differing model responses to aerosol and greenhouse gas forcings.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008937","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Growing-Season Plant-Available Water in the Continental United States","authors":"Sagar Gautam,&nbsp;Chang Gyo Jung,&nbsp;Kunal Poorey,&nbsp;Udaya Vitharana,&nbsp;Umakant Mishra","doi":"10.1029/2026EF009877","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF009877","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Plant-available water (PAW) is a primary regulator of plant growth, ecosystem productivity, and drought resilience, yet its spatial heterogeneity and long-term response to hydrothermal changes remain poorly quantified at continental scales. Here, we quantify historical (2005–2015) and projected (2030–2100) changes in growing-season PAW across the continental United States (CONUS) by integrating site-level soil moisture observations with environmental predictors and bias-corrected downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six (CMIP6) climate projections. Root-zone PAW (0–30 cm) was estimated from soil moisture content, field capacity, and wilting point, thereby capturing coupled soil and climatic controls on plant water availability. Ensemble CMIP6 projections under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP): SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 indicate widespread declines in growing-season PAW, driven primarily by increasing temperature and vapor-pressure deficit that increase atmospheric evaporative demand, outpacing projected precipitation gains, with substantially stronger drying under SSP5-8.5. Compared to baseline conditions, PAW declines across approximately 6.9%–19.8% of the CONUS, with the largest reductions concentrated in the Great Plains, western Corn Belt, and Intermountain West ecoregions. In contrast, 76.2%–84.6% of the region shows no significant change, while 4.0%–8.5% exhibits increase, primarily across northern forested regions. Collectively, these findings identify emerging hotspots of PAW limitation and highlight growing risks to crop production and rangeland resilience, emphasizing the need for region-specific adaptation and water-management strategies under future environmental conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF009877","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Significant Spatiotemporal Asymmetry in Future Global Rainstorm Flood Risk","authors":"Lixiang Zhao,&nbsp;Liping Zhang,&nbsp;Chen Hu,&nbsp;Zhiling Zhou,&nbsp;Xiao Li,&nbsp;Zhenyu Tang,&nbsp;Lina Liu,&nbsp;Gangsheng Wang,&nbsp;Jun Xia","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007148","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Floods are among the most frequent and destructive natural disasters, yet future flood risk assessments have largely relied on precipitation indices, overlooking runoff depth—a variable that more directly captures flood hazard under diverse regional hydrological conditions. Moreover, the interactions among risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) remain underexplored. Here we integrate 14 multidimensional sub-indicators, including both precipitation- and runoff-based indices, to assess global rainstorm flood risk from 1991 to 2100 under four SSP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Comparative experiments reveal that omitting runoff depth systematically overestimates high-risk areas and brings forward the time at which risk projections begin to diverge across scenarios. Global risk increases persistently, with SSP5-8.5 showing the highest rise by 2100, and high-risk regions are concentrated in the Americas, Africa, South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia. Exposure dominates risk, while hazard and vulnerability play regionally distinct modulating roles. Alarmingly, by 2100, half of the global population (up to 6 billion under SSP3-7.0) and half of global GDP (under SSP5-8.5) will face the highest risk level, with South and East Asia accounting for half of that population (or GDP) due to dense populations and infrastructure. This study advances flood risk assessment by reconciling hydrological complexity with socioeconomic pathways and highlights that mitigation strategies must prioritize emission reductions and the relocation of people and assets from flood-prone areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007148","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Compound Risk and Centralized Desalination: Multi-Hazard Threats to Water Security","authors":"Karol Bot,&nbsp;Natalie De Falco,&nbsp;Noam Weisbrod","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008999","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008999","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Water security research has long acknowledged that engineered water systems face concurrent threat pathways, yet risk assessment practice remains predominantly single-hazard. For desalination-dependent systems—nowhere more than in the Gulf—this simplification is a structural failure. We argue in this Commentary that centralized desalination systems concentrate three mutually reinforcing sources of compound vulnerability: structural compounding—near-total dependence on desalinated water, extreme concentration of production in a small number of very large facilities, and tight physical coupling of water production to power generation; multi-hazard concurrence—simultaneous exposure to kinetic attack, energy disruption, cyber intrusion, and environmental contamination, superimposed on chronic drought and groundwater depletion; and non-linear interaction effects, through which concurrent stressors amplify one another. The strikes on power and desalination-related infrastructure across the Gulf in March 2026—in a region producing on the order of 40 per cent of the world's desalinated water—illustrate how these dimensions combine in practice. We map the compound exposure pathways of desalination infrastructure, identify the structural mismatch between centralized desalination architectures and the international humanitarian law framework nominally protecting them, and propose three actionable interventions: mandatory compound vulnerability assessment as a condition of international financing, a structural shift toward distributed solar-driven reverse-osmosis architectures, and a dedicated international instrument for the categorical protection of large-scale desalination infrastructure as civilian infrastructure indispensable to survival.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008999","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Emissions of Air Pollutants From Commercial and Residential Fuel Combustion 1970–2020: Trends, Technology Evolution, and Drivers","authors":"Lanyuan Wang,&nbsp;Ruochong Xu,&nbsp;Dan Tong,&nbsp;Huaxuan Wang,&nbsp;Qiang Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008539","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008539","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The commercial and residential sector is a major global energy consumer, and its emission trends of air pollutants are strongly influenced by fuel transitions and technological evolution. Yet, the long-term emission change patterns of individual countries under technological evolution remain poorly constrained. Here, we developed a new global emission inventory for commercial and residential fuel combustion from 1970 to 2020, by modeling national stove technology evolution and compiling a large ensemble of local emission factors. Our results reveal distinct regional emission trends for SO₂, NO_x, PM_2.5, and CO, shaped by various factors including policy implementation, fuel consumption, transition in fuel mix, and technological evolution. Taking SO₂ as an example, global emissions declined by 58% between 1970 and 2020, driven mainly by clean fuel transitions and technological improvements, despite a rebound in 2000–2010 linked to rising coal use in China and the Middle East and North Africa. Our work provides a new data set of global emissions from the commercial and residential sector with detailed information on technology evolution and thus could be used for designing regional emission mitigation strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008539","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microbially Mediated Soil Carbon Sequestration Under Long-Term Increased Snow Cover: Divergent Mechanisms Between Topsoil and Subsoil in a Temperate Grassland","authors":"Linna Ma,&nbsp;Chunyue Yao,&nbsp;Zhiyong Li,&nbsp;Na Li,&nbsp;Jinchao Feng,&nbsp;Jinan Gao,&nbsp; Qilimuge,&nbsp;Jincan Ma,&nbsp;Xiaofeng Xu,&nbsp;Yunhai Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007819","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007819","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate-driven changes in winter snow cover alter soil microclimate and hydrology, affecting soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics, whereas the mechanisms by which long-term deepened snow influences SOC sequestration across soil profiles remain unclear. Through a 7-year snow manipulation experiment in a temperate grassland, we investigated how increased snow depth (ambient, 50, 70, 90 cm) affects SOC sequestration via microbial-mediated pathways in topsoil and subsoil. Our results showed that long-term increased snow significantly promoted total SOC accumulation by 6% (50 cm), 12% (70 cm), and 15% (90 cm) relative to ambient conditions across soil profile (0–70 cm). Increased snow did not increase topsoil SOC storage despite increased plant biomass, litter decomposition, and root exudates, as elevated microbial respiration offset C inputs and enhanced dissolved organic C (DOC) leaching to subsoil. In contrast, subsoil layer exhibited significant SOC accumulation, driven by improved microbial C-use efficiency (by 11%–18%), enhanced fungal growth with only minor increases in respiratory C losses, and preferential accumulation of fungal necromass from fast-growing <i>Ascomycota</i> taxa. The subsoil also effectively intercepted and processed DOC leached from topsoil, forming a vertical C transport-stabilization continuum. Soil protein abundance (indicative of mineral-associated C) increased significantly in both layers, confirming increased snow progressively promoted SOC stabilization. These findings reveal that topsoil maintains C equilibrium through compensating microbial processes, while subsoil acts as a C sink through fungal-mediated pathways. These contrasting mechanisms highlight the need for depth-resolved, microbial process-based models to predict future C sequestration under altered winter precipitation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007819","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}