Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Trapped in Irrigation: Future Irrigation Expansion Amplifies Food–Water–Energy Policy Trade-Offs in Germany","authors":"Jasmin Heilemann,&nbsp;Christian Klassert,&nbsp;Mansi Nagpal,&nbsp;Simon Werner,&nbsp;Bernd Klauer,&nbsp;Erik Gawel","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007226","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007226","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is expected to intensify water stress even in historically overall water-abundant countries like Germany, where expanding irrigation depicts an effective adaptation strategy. Such path-dependent irrigation growth—here referred to as an <i>irrigation trap</i>—can lock farmers into high and potentially unsustainable water use, heightening trade-offs between food, water, and energy (FWE) sector policy objectives. However, no comprehensive assessment of future policy impacts and cross-sector trade-offs within the FWE nexus exists for Germany. This study evaluates the impacts of six sectoral policies on the future irrigation demand of eight major field crops and related FWE indicators, using a hybrid modeling framework that links hydrological and machine learning models with a hydro-economic multi-agent system. The results show divergent effects of sectoral policies on the FWE nexus. Water sector policies—such as abstraction limits and pricing—substantially curb future irrigation expansion under climatic and socioeconomic change, with only marginal profit losses if implemented early. In contrast, bioenergy policies further raise irrigation demand, reaching up to 13.7-fold the historic levels by the far future (2069–2098). Drought compensation schemes weaken incentives for farmers to adapt to climate change, and irrigation efficiency subsidies do not deliver net water savings. By using a hybrid modeling framework capturing irrigation expansion and adaptive farmer behavior, our <i>ex ante</i> policy assessment shows that unregulated irrigation expansion triggers increasingly steep trade-offs between FWE objectives. Avoiding this irrigation trap requires timely and coordinated cross-sector policies to balance competing demands under growing climatic and socioeconomic pressure.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007226","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147708093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of Meteorological, Hydrological, and Compound Droughts on the Precipitation–Runoff Relationship Across Timescales","authors":"Pengyu An,&nbsp;Jiefeng Wu,&nbsp;Huaxia Yao,&nbsp;Guoqing Wang,&nbsp;Amir AghaKouchak","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006795","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006795","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Droughts alter the precipitation-runoff (PR) relationship, thereby influencing water resources planning and management. Previous studies have mainly focused on the influence of multi-year droughts on PR relationship. The influence of different drought types across various timescales (monthly, seasonal, and annual) remains understudied. In this study, we applied a Cumulative Distribution Function-Linear Regression-Random Forest (CDF-LR-RF) algorithm to evaluate, bias correct, and integrate multi-source precipitation data sets for drought assessment in a data-poor basin. Then, meteorological drought (MD) and hydrological drought (HD) were identified using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), respectively, with compound drought (CD) events defined where MD and HD overlapped. The PR relationship was characterized using Slope (conversion speed) and <i>R</i>² (relationship strength). The approach was tested in the source region of the Yellow River basin (SRYB) in northwest China. The key findings include: (a) The CDF-LR-RF method efficiently integrates multi-source precipitation data, significantly improving accuracy for drought assessment. (b) In the SRYB, MD, HD, and CD exhibit clear time-scale effects, with CD being more severe and longer-lasting than MD, but less so than HD. (c) Different drought types impact the PR relationship differently across timescales, with short-term droughts (identified through monthly and seasonal SPEI/SRI) showing a stronger effect than long-term droughts (e.g., annual scale). (d) CD influences both the strength and conversion speed of the PR relationship, with its impact generally stronger than MD but weaker than HD. These insights help managers predict water availability and target drought responses for specific drought types.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006795","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147708094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Thank You to Our 2025 Peer Reviewers","authors":"Kelly K. Caylor,&nbsp;Justin Mankin,&nbsp;Maria Cristina Rull,&nbsp;Dabo Guan,&nbsp;John Abatzoglou,&nbsp;Kirsten de Beurs,&nbsp;Gonéri Le Cozannet,&nbsp;Carole Dalin,&nbsp;Noah S. Diffenbaugh,&nbsp;Robert E. Kopp,&nbsp;Ashok Mishra,&nbsp;Vimal Mishra,&nbsp;Michael Puma,&nbsp;Patrick M. Reed,&nbsp;Mojtaba Sadegh,&nbsp;Helene Seroussi,&nbsp;Anna Trugman,&nbsp;Xin Zhang,&nbsp;Lei Zhao","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008660","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008660","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;On behalf of the journal, AGU, and the scientific community, we, the editors of Earth's Future, are delighted to publish the names of the 1,236 peer reviewers who provided 1,836 reviews for our journal in 2025 (italicized names have contributed three or more reviews). Your diligent efforts to provide timely comments on our submissions have significantly improved the manuscripts and elevated the scientific rigor of future research. As a unique transdisciplinary journal, Earth's Future delves into the state of the planet and its inhabitants, sustainable and resilient societies, the science of the Anthropocene, and predictions of our shared future through research articles, reviews, and commentaries. In the face of observed and anticipated global environmental and climatic changes, the need for high-quality scientific theories, assessments, and projections about the future of our planet has never been more pressing. To safeguard research integrity in this crucial area, we rely on our reviewers' expertise and selfless cooperation. We extend our heartfelt thanks to each of the individuals listed below for their contributions to our journal and the broader scientific discourse. Your dedication is immensely appreciated.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Individuals in &lt;i&gt;italics&lt;/i&gt; provided three or more reviews for Earth's Future during the year.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;A. Brad Murray&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;A. Williams&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Abdul Moiz&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Abhijit Mukherjee&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Abhnil Prasad&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Abigail Swann&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Abinash Bhattachan&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Adam Pollack&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Adam Wymore&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Aditya Sinha&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Adrian Harpold&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Adrien Vogt-Schilb&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Adrienne Marshall&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Adrienne Wootten&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;AFM Kamal Chowdhury&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Agustin del Prado&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ahjond Garmestani&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ahmed El Kenawy&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ahmed Elkouk&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Aimée Slangen&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ajay Mishra&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Albert Larson&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Alberto Baudena&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;Alberto Bellin&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Alessio Radice&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Alex Turner&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Alex Webster&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Alexander Brenning&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Alexander Gottlieb&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Alexander Turner&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Alexandra Toimil&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Alexandra Tyukavina&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Alexandre Nicolae Lerma&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Alfredo Rodríguez&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ali Arslan&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ali Danandeh Mehr&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ali Eyni&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ali Fares&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ali Nazemi&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ali Sarhadi&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Alice Puppin&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Alissar Cheaib&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;Alistair Duffey&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Aliva Nanda&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Allison Myers-Pigg&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Alvise Finotello&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Alyssa Stansfield&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Amanda Donaldson&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Amanda Rehbein&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Amandine Bosserelle&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;Amar Deep Tiwari&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Amen Al-Yaari&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;Amitesh Gupta&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;Amitesh Sabut&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;Amy East&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Amy Liu&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ana Mijic&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Anastasia Romanou&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Andra Garner&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Andra-Cosmina Albulescu&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;András Gelencsér&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Andrea Cominola&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Andrea D'Alpaos&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Andrew Bauer&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Andrew Bell&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Andrew Kulmatiski&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Andrew MacDougall&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Andrew Roberts&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Andrew Zimmer&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Andrey Pnyushkov&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Andrzej Walega&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ang Chen&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Angelika Renner&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Angelo Gurgel&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Anh Cao&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Animesh Gain&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ann Gibbs&lt;/p","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008660","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147708127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Warming Amplifies the Risk of Uncertainties in Projections of Deepened Summer Thaw Depth Across Northern Hemisphere Zone","authors":"Guodong Sun,&nbsp;Qiyu Zhang,&nbsp;Hui Liu,&nbsp;Xiang Song,&nbsp;Xiaodong Zeng,&nbsp;Qinglong You","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006192","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006192","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A warming climate endangered to destabilize the expansive permafrost zone and its summer thaw depth in the northern part of the earth. This climatic shift exacerbated the challenges associated with predicting future summer thaw depths, thereby escalating the associated risks. To examine the influence of uncertainties in future global warming on these predictions, we conducted 2,829 numerical simulations across 21,786 grids at a 0.5° resolution within the Northern Hemisphere using a land model that accurately described the physical processes of freezing and thawing. To mitigate the impact of errors in model physical parameters on the uncertainty of estimated summer thaw depths, we proposed a standardized orthogonal bounded parameter perturbation (SOBPP) method. This approach was implemented to build an ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the advanced Lund-Potsdam-Jena Wetland Hydrology and Methane (LPJ-WHyMe) model, called as LPJ-WHyMe-OPEPS. LPJ-WHyMe-OPEPS was evaluated for its ability to simulate summer thaw depths using 264 observational data across various fields. The results demonstrated that LPJ-WHyMe-OPEPS outperformed simulations without the EPS in simulating summer thaw depths. Under global warming scenarios, uncertainties extents in projections of summer thaw depth within the northern permafrost zone increased over time when using LPJ-WHyMe-OPEPS. Additional numerical experiments revealed that the magnitude of uncertainty growth in summer thaw depth predictions due to climate warming surpassed that in the absence of climate warming. These findings underscored the escalating challenges in predicting the dynamics of the northern summer permafrost zone in response to ongoing global warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006192","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147708131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Preliminary Comparison of SOC Storage Between the Traditional Farmland and Well-Facilitated Farmland Management","authors":"Zheng Wang,&nbsp;Ruiying Zhao,&nbsp;Jie Xue,&nbsp;Rui Lu,&nbsp;Zhongxing Chen,&nbsp;Qiangyi Yu,&nbsp;Wei Chen,&nbsp;Qichun Zhang,&nbsp;Zhou Shi,&nbsp;Songchao Chen","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007810","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007810","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Soil organic carbon (SOC) is central to the global carbon cycle, yet unsustainable cultivation has resulted in a continuing SOC loss and has made it highly vulnerable to future climate change. In China, the Well-Facilitated Farmland Construction (WFC) initiative has sought to enhance soil conditions by integrating farmland management units (FMUs) and adopting improved practices, including optimized irrigation, straw incorporation, and targeted fertilization strategies. Since its launch in 2013, the WFC project has been implemented across more than 50 million hectares of farmland. However, its spatio-temporal impacts on SOC remain poorly understood. To address this gap, we focused on three representative regions, Shunyi, Rudong, and Dangtu, to examine the impact of farmland management unit integration. A total of 1,549 soil profiles were compiled to calibrate the CENTURY model and simulate long-term variations in topsoil (0–20 cm) SOC density (SOCD) across Chinese farmlands. Results show that, following the WFC project, farmland fragmentation decreased while SOCD increased, with strong negative correlations between fragmentation degree and SOCD. These findings indicate that farmland patch integration contributes significantly to SOC sequestration. According to the results of future simulation, the WFC practices would increase the farmland SOC storage under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios during the 2030–2100. This sustained increase reflects the CO₂ fertilization effect, enhanced crop productivity through optimized irrigation, greater organic inputs from straw incorporation, and reduced microbial decomposition under balanced nitrogen fertilization. In conclusion, WFC demonstrates a sustainable pathway toward more resilient and climate-smart food systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007810","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147707899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Maximizing Nature-Based Solutions Using Artificial Intelligence to Align Global Biodiversity, Climate, and Water Targets","authors":"Camilo Alejo,&nbsp;Amy Luers,&nbsp;Andréa Ventimiglia,&nbsp;María-Isabel Arce-Plata,&nbsp;H. Damon Matthews","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007560","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Nature-based Solutions (NbS) encompass a spectrum of conservation and restoration actions aimed at improving biodiversity, climate, and water outcomes. Considerable research exists that focuses on prioritizing either conservation or restoration, or specific environmental outcomes. Yet, there is a need to develop integrated frameworks that align multiple outcomes and enable comprehensive environmental and economic assessments. Here, we present an integrated framework leveraging an AI agent that interprets species' habitat and connectivity changes along with climate and water co-benefits to select optimal conservation and restoration priority areas. We implement this framework through scenarios maximizing biodiversity protection with ecological integrity, carbon storage, and water co-benefits to achieve Canada's 30 × 30 conservation and restoration targets. Our results suggest that prioritizing the protection of threatened biodiversity and irrecoverable carbon storage would optimally enhance existing Protected Areas outcomes and conserve 30% of lands by 2030. However, effectively restoring 30% of degraded land will require targeted actions in existing natural and transformed ecosystems. The assessment of current anthropogenic pressures suggests that conservation and restoration actions may enhance climate resilience for forestry in natural lands and potentially benefit agricultural production and public health in transformed lands. Moreover, the mining sector represents the largest growing pressure on both conservation and restoration priorities in the upcoming decade. Overall, this integrated framework reveals strategic conservation and restoration priorities to align environmental targets, while identifying opportunities to coordinate NbS interventions across sectors.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007560","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147707900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Challenges and Opportunities for National-Scale Projections of Future Coastal Landscape Change","authors":"Erika E. Lentz,&nbsp;Davina L. Passeri,&nbsp;Sara L. Zeigler,&nbsp;Kate White,&nbsp;Thomas Wahl,&nbsp;Amanda D. Stoltz,&nbsp;Elizabeth A. Pendleton,&nbsp;Shubhra Misra,&nbsp;Trevor Meckley,&nbsp;Ben Hamlington,&nbsp;Neil Ganju,&nbsp;Amanda E. Cravens,&nbsp;Joel Carr,&nbsp;Christine A. Buckel","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005833","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005833","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Local to global scale projections of future coastal landscape change are essential to improve land and resource management decisions that aim to prepare for and reduce risk exposure to impending coastal hazards. However, the availability of actionable knowledge is often limited due to the complexity of drivers of change, their consequences, and uncertainties that span disciplines. Varying spatial and temporal scales of physical processes that occur on landscapes with differing levels of coastal development and modification complicate decision-making. This paper reviews advances in observational approaches, modeling, and quantification of uncertainty to support the next generation of coastal change projections. We also highlight transdisciplinary opportunities for making this information more accessible and useful to support decision-making in the coastal zone. This includes consideration of different levels of user engagement to address specific needs, as well as resources and mechanisms that can support knowledge transfer broadly. A central recommendation is the development of a coordinated framework to support research integration including three components: accounting for relevant drivers, processes, and feedbacks; working with users to identify their information needs; and generating meaningful projections and uncertainty. Actions that would support such frameworks include the evaluation of models through coordinated research approaches and multi-model comparisons; ongoing investments in observations and data-driven approaches necessary to understand this complex environment; expansion of modeling capabilities using novel techniques; prioritization of co-development efforts between researchers and users; and continued training and support for transdisciplinary research.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005833","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147708402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Urban-Rural Differences in Precipitation: Cities See More Light Rain But Milder Extremes","authors":"Mingze Ding,&nbsp;Xiao-Tong Zheng,&nbsp;Dan Li,&nbsp;Zhe Li,&nbsp;Haonan Chen,&nbsp;Ting Sun","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007370","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007370","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ample evidence has shown that cities modulate regional hydrometeorology and hydroclimatology. Because different precipitation intensities have distinct hydrological and societal impacts, with light precipitation helping to alleviate urban heat and extreme precipitation often driving flood risks, it is important to understand whether and how urban effects vary with precipitation intensity. Based on global satellite-based observations, we demonstrate that 70.1% of large cities experience increased light precipitation frequency, while 69.9% exhibit milder extreme precipitation magnitude than their rural counterparts. By further dividing the rural areas into upwind and downwind regions, we find that the frequency of light precipitation events is enhanced within cities, but such enhancements shift to the downwind rural areas as the precipitation intensity increases, notably for heavy precipitation (&gt;20 mm) frequency and extreme precipitation indices. Moreover, we perform weather simulations with a real atmosphere and idealized land surface configuration, which reveal that urban surfaces modify the precipitation distribution with more areas of low precipitation intensity but a milder maximum precipitation intensity, consistent with satellite-based observational results. The contrasting influence of cities on light and extreme precipitation suggests an underappreciated role of urbanization in improving local climate conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007370","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147708403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Disaggregation of Landslide Risk","authors":"William Pollock,&nbsp;Joseph Wartman","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007594","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007594","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Quantifying and disaggregating landslide risk through probabilistic landslide risk analysis (PLRA) is critical for land use regulation and risk reduction. However, no transferable model for PLRA currently exists that resolves landslide consequences to individual buildings at regional scales. We introduce the physically-based MM₃ model for multimodal landslide risk analysis and apply it to Seattle, Washington, USA. Frequent precipitation-induced shallow landslides govern landslide risk in Seattle, although ground shaking from infrequent earthquakes, such as those anticipated on the Seattle Fault and Cascadia Subduction Zone, could expose over 60,000 people and 12,000 buildings to landslides. Critically, building-specific risk profiles vary by orders-of-magnitude even at neighboring properties, with different landslide modes and triggers posing distinct threats to human life versus structural integrity—enabling highly tailored mitigation strategies. Significantly more buildings face landslide risk than are currently designated as landslide-prone under susceptibility-based policies, primarily due to runout being excluded in susceptibility mapping. By quantifying and disaggregating landslide risk at building resolution across regional scales, MM₃ provides a foundation for translating landslide science into actionable, risk-informed land use policy.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007594","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147708422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Divergent Changes in Oceanic and Terrestrial Surface Water Budgets Under Global Warming: Insights From ERA5 Reanalysis","authors":"Fuxiong Guo,&nbsp;Wen Wang,&nbsp;Xiaoqian Xu,&nbsp;Yuxuan Gao","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006282","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006282","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding how the global surface water budget (WB) responds to climate warming is crucial for assessing future water resources and hydroclimatic extremes. Here, we develop a process-level decomposition framework and apply it to ERA5 reanalysis (1981–2024) to quantify WB sensitivity to global mean surface temperature (GMST). WB changes are regressed against GMST and decomposed into thermodynamic, mean-circulation, transient-eddy, surface-pressure and column-storage contributions, using vertically integrated water vapor divergence (VIWVD) as a closure-consistent diagnostic. Results suggest an intensification of the water cycle: enhanced ocean moisture export and increased land moisture convergence imply strengthened ocean-to-land moisture redistribution. Circulation and transient-eddy largely shape the spatial WB response, while net thermodynamic effects are secondary due to compensating subcomponents. Regime analysis shows circulation-driven drying in subtropical/deficit zones and thermodynamic- and eddy-driven wetting in surplus/high-latitude zones, and weak net changes in transitional regions. Beyond quantifying mechanisms, our framework provides a transferable diagnostic tool for assessing model and reanalysis performance and for contextualizing regional water cycle changes under warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006282","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147708421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}