Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Heat Risk Interdependencies in the UK: Implications for Adaptation","authors":"Sara Mehryar,&nbsp;Candice Howarth,&nbsp;Declan Conway","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005797","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005797","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, yet many countries remain inadequately prepared to manage their impacts. Existing heat risk plans and responses often fail to account for the complex interdependencies among the various causes and impact pathways of heatwaves. Effective planning requires a system-level understanding of these interdependencies to identify strategic entry points for action. This paper employs a participatory system mapping approach to explore the interconnections among causes, impacts, and response actions during the UK heatwave events of summer 2022. Cognitive maps were developed shortly after the events, incorporating input from 38 stakeholders across sectors involved in the heatwave response. These maps informed a forensic disaster analysis designed to provide a holistic understanding of the heatwave's causes, impacts, and adaptation measures. By analyzing the interdependencies among these factors, we identified cascading effects and amplifiers that significantly intensified heat risk in the UK. Notably, we find that the primary heatwave impacts were often indirect, emerging or worsening due to cascading effects such as wildfires, drought, transportation disruptions, and the overburdening of first responders. In many cases, adaptation measures were reactive, addressing isolated, short-term impacts, while proactive, system-level approaches tackling interconnected impacts and root causes, such as vulnerable buildings, at-risk populations, and behavioral barriers, were largely absent. Additionally, we found notable variations in heat risk perceptions among groups. While individual sectors displayed a limited understanding of the broader heat risk system, a system-level perspective emerged through the aggregation of cognitive maps. The implications for adaptation research and policy are discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005797","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144681396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adjusting the Main Cropping Types in Mollisol Regions Could Improve the Net Primary Productivity of Low-Producing Areas by 20%–30% Under Future Climate Change","authors":"Yilin Bao,&nbsp;Xiangtian Meng,&nbsp;Huanjun Liu,&nbsp;Mingchang Wang,&nbsp;Fengmei Yao,&nbsp;Abdul Mounem Mouazen","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006074","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rationalizing site-specific crop types is an effective strategy for ensuring food security under climate change. This study employed environmental covariates representing climate, soil, and vegetation, combined with a hybrid convolutional neural network - Long Short-term Memory-self-attention (CNN-LSTM-SA) model to predict net primary productivity (NPP) of the Northeast China (NEC) and the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) Mollisol regions. The analysis covered the periods from 2001 to 2020, and 2021 to 2040 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP245 and SSP585. Subsequently, areas requiring crop type adjustments were identified, and appropriate crops were assigned to each growth site. Our results elucidate that: (a) During 2021–2040, a general increase in temperature and minor fluctuations in precipitation were observed across the study area. In the NEC, crop NPP initially increases before decreasing, whereas in the MRB, it consistently decreases. (b) Both vegetation and soil covariates explained 75.6% of NPP variability in the NEC, while in the MRB, climate factors, particularly precipitation, accounted for 18.4% of the variability. (c) The proportion of area requiring adjustment in the NEC ranged from 4.45% to 5.13% (SSP245) to 5.05%–5.77% (SSP585), while in the MRB, it varied from 4.92% to 7.54% (SSP245) to 6.49%–9.10% (SSP585), suggesting a necessity for more substantial cropping type adjustments under the SSP585 climate scenario. (d) In the NEC, the area cultivated with corn, soybean, and other crops will decrease, while rice cultivation will increase. Conversely, a decrease in wheat and pasture, and an increase in corn and soybean cultivation are suggested in the MRB. (e) Following crop type adjustments, the average NPP enhancements for corn, soybean, rice, and other crops in unsuitable areas of the NEC were 22.85%, 22.2%, 17.35%, and 20.5%, respectively, In the MRB, the average NPP enhancements for corn, soybean, wheat, and pasture were 28.5%, 26.9%, 32.4%, and 21.1%, respectively. Our research provides valuable insights into predicting future NPP changes, and develops effective crop adjustment strategies to address global food security challenges.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006074","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144672729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding Rural-to-Urban Water Transfers: An Agent-Based and Input-Output Modeling Approach","authors":"Maria Amaya,&nbsp;Chung-Yi Lin,&nbsp;Landon Marston","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004984","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004984","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Growing societal water demands and decreasing water supplies are straining the water available for communities in many basins. Once water supplies have been fully allocated and developing new water supplies is infeasible, the best option to meet growing water demands is often to reallocate water from rural agricultural water uses. Yet, the dynamics and implications of these rural-to-urban water transfers are poorly understood. Here, we integrate an agent-based model with an input-output model to capture the behavior of individual irrigators and examine how their water transfer decisions propagate through the broader rural economy and shape social dynamics. As a demonstration of our model, the rural community represents Alamosa County while the city represents the city of Denver, both located in Colorado, Unites States. We find that the greatest long-term decline in crop water use corresponds with higher city growth rates while the greatest short-term decline corresponds with larger farmer discount rates. As farmers sell their water rights to the City, economic activity from the crop production sector declines, causing unemployment in the crop production sector to increase and demand from the service sectors to decrease, which results in output declining in these economic sectors as well. Thus, a negative impact on the agricultural sector will cause some negative impact on other economic sectors, such as professional, health care, and recreational services. This research brings new insights that can be used to evaluate the socio-economic impacts of water transfers and shape policy to minimize potential negative externalities associated with water transfers.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004984","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability in Winter Precipitation Changes Over Central Asia","authors":"Mengyuan Yao,&nbsp;Haosu Tang,&nbsp;Gang Huang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006064","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Winter Central Asian precipitation (WCAP) is increasingly replacing snowfall as a critical water resource under global warming. Observations show a decline in WCAP from 1891 to 1946, followed by a recovery from 1947 to the recent decade. However, the relative contributions of external forcing and internal variability to these changes remain unclear. By analyzing observations and climate model simulations, this study finds that greenhouse gas forcing favors increasing WCAP, potentially offsetting drying trends driven by anthropogenic aerosols. Internal variability, primarily the phase transition of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), plays a dominant role in shaping WCAP trends. The AMV-induced Rossby wave train, sustained by extracting baroclinic energy from the background mean flow, triggers barotropic atmospheric circulation anomalies that modulate WCAP. The cold-to-warm AMV phase transition (1891–1946) weakened the externally forced upward precipitation trend, reducing it from 0.19 to −0.20 mm month⁻¹ decade⁻¹. In contrast, the warm-to-cold phase transition (1947–1997) amplified the externally forced precipitation trend, increasing it from 0.28 to 0.99 mm month⁻¹ decade⁻¹. Under the high-emission future scenario, the time of emergence of externally driven WCAP increases is projected to occur between 2030 and 2060, at least a decade earlier than the post-2060 timeline projected under the medium-emission scenario. These findings underscore the critical role of AMV in shaping WCAP variability and highlight the necessity of emission reductions to delay the time when externally driven precipitation increases exceed the region's adaptive capacity.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006064","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Soil Moisture Feedback Amplified the Earlier Onset of the Record-Breaking Three-Day Consecutive Heatwave in 2023 in North China","authors":"Kexin Gui,&nbsp;Tianjun Zhou","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005561","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005561","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A record-breaking heatwave swept North China in the summer of 2023, with a regional average of daily maximum temperature exceeding 35°C on June 23, which was the hottest day since 1959. We use the dynamical adjustment approach to assess the contributions of atmospheric circulation and Soil moisture (SM) to this heatwave and find that they contributed 69.8% and 39.5%, respectively. The anomalous anticyclone that caused this heatwave was influenced by upstream signals. Easterly winds on the southern side of the anticyclone led to anomalous subsidence, which heated the air over North China. While such anomalous anticyclones over North China are not uncommon due to atmospheric circulation variability, the 2023 heatwave still broke records because the SM-temperature coupling during the heatwave was unprecedented, with a strength four times that of typical years. The dry soil conditions during the heatwave stemmed from a lack of precipitation beforehand, with cumulative rainfall in North China being the lowest since 1979. The early dryness of the soil provided favorable conditions for land-atmosphere feedback, and under the trigger of subsidence-induced warming from the early summer anticyclone, the strong SM-temperature coupling significantly amplified the intensity of this heatwave. For future projections, numerical experiment analysis shows that temperatures currently considered extreme during 2023 heatwave event will become commonplace in the future due to SM-atmosphere coupling. However, by the end of the century, the impact of land-atmosphere coupling on extreme high temperatures in North China will diminish compared to historical period, owing to increased SM.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005561","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Response of Soil Carbon Mineralization to Grassland Management Practices on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Jianjun Cao,&nbsp;Yizhe Peng,&nbsp;Asim Biswas,&nbsp;Xiaofang Zhang,&nbsp;Jan F. Adamowski,&nbsp;Qi Feng","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006047","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Grassland management practices strongly influence soil carbon dynamics, yet their effects on carbon mineralization processes in high-altitude regions remain poorly understood. We examined soil carbon mineralization patterns under four common grassland management practices implemented on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (i.e., seasonal grazing, continuous grazing, perennial artificial grasslands, and annual artificial grasslands) using a 147-day incubation experiment. We also analyzed soil properties, microbial communities, and carbon degradation genes to understand the mechanisms driving carbon mineralization. We observed distinct depth-dependent responses to management practices. In surface soils (0–0.15 m), seasonal grazing exhibited the highest cumulative carbon mineralization (2993.32 mg CO₂-C kg⁻¹), 1.5-fold higher than annual artificial grasslands. However, in subsurface soils (0.15–0.30 m), continuous grazing showed the greatest cumulative carbon mineralization (2355.18 mg CO₂-C kg⁻¹), 1.5-fold higher than perennial artificial grasslands. Collectively, soil properties, carbon degradation genes, and fungal diversity explained 74% of the variation in cumulative carbon mineralization, with soil properties showing the strongest direct effect (path coefficient = 0.62). Interestingly, bacterial diversity exhibited a negative relationship with cumulative carbon mineralization, suggesting previously underappreciated mechanisms of carbon preservation involving microbial-derived compounds and their interaction with soil minerals. The variability in the abundance of specific carbon degradation genes across grassland management practices revealed that peroxidase and limonene 1,2-epoxide hydrolase genes showed positive correlations with cumulative carbon mineralization. Our results suggest that optimal soil carbon management in high-altitude grasslands is challenging and requires careful consideration of both grassland management practices and soil depth, especially spatial and temporal patterns of grazing pressure.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006047","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating How Climate Adaptation Measures Affect the Interconnected Water-Energy Resource Systems of the Western United States","authors":"A. Singhal,&nbsp;J. K. Szinai,&nbsp;D. Yates,&nbsp;A. D. Jones","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006072","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Western US faces increasing water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet water demands for the region's cities, agriculture, and hydropower generators. Existing literature suggests that climate adaptation measures such as water conservation, cropland retirement, wastewater recycling, and managed aquifer recharge can alleviate some of these challenges. Few analyses, however, compare the relative efficacy and system-wide effects of these adaptations under different climate projections across the entire Western United States. Here we use a Western US-wide water systems model to evaluate, by sector and sub-region, how the widespread implementation of these adaptive measures impacts water demands, water deliveries, and electricity use related to the water system for three different climate projections. We find that wastewater recycling has greater potential to lower unmet indoor water demands than urban indoor water conservation measures. However, when implemented at scale, indoor water conservation reduces electricity use by an average of 683 Terawatt hours while wastewater recycling increases energy use by an average of 721 Terawatt hours, cumulatively from 2020 to 2070. Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge adaptations increase the ability to meet agricultural water demand, increase groundwater storage, and reduce summertime electricity use. While most of these findings are consistent across different climate projections, the benefits of aquifer recharge are sensitive to spatial variation of precipitation. Given the limitations and tradeoffs of each individually, the results suggest that a portfolio of adaptation measures will be needed for a climate-resilient water and energy future in the Western US.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006072","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144624322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reconstructing Repetitive Flood Exposure Across 78 Events From 1996 to 2020 in North Carolina, USA","authors":"Helena M. Garcia,&nbsp;Antonia Sebastian,&nbsp;Kieran P. Fitzmaurice,&nbsp;Miyuki Hino,&nbsp;Elyssa L. Collins,&nbsp;Gregory W. Characklis","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006026","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Measuring flooding through time is crucial for understanding exposure and vulnerability — key components to estimating flood risks and impacts. Yet, historical records of flood inundation are sparse. In this study, we reconstruct flood extents for 78 damaging events in eastern North Carolina between 1996 and 2020 using high-resolution geospatial data and address-level National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) records. We train random forest models on NFIP-based labeled flood presence and absence data and a suite of geospatial predictors. Then, we predict the probability of flood damage at every 30 m grid cell within our model domain. Our models achieve an average Area Under the Curve of 0.76 and outperform flood extent estimates from process-based and remote sensing models when evaluated against NFIP data for six events. We find that approximately 90,000 (2.3%) buildings in our study area flooded at least once, of which over 20,000 (0.53%) flooded more than once. Our estimate is more than double the number of buildings that filed NFIP claims between 1996 and 2020. Furthermore, 43% of flooded buildings are located outside the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Special Flood Hazard Area. Our results illustrate that flood exposure, especially repetitive exposure, is much more widespread than previously recognized. By generating a comprehensive record of past flood extents using address-level observations of damage, we create a first-of-its-kind geospatial database that can be used to identify locations of repetitive flooding. This represents a crucial first step in examining the dynamic relationships between flood exposure, vulnerability, and risk.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006026","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144615526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating the Role of Internal Climate Variability and Bias Adjustment Methods on Decadal Glacier Projections","authors":"Matthew Weathers,&nbsp;David R. Rounce,&nbsp;John Fasullo,&nbsp;Fabien Maussion","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005624","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005624","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Glacier mass loss is one of the main contributors to sea-level rise and poses challenges for future water resources. Refining glacier projections and sources of uncertainty thus supports climate adaptation and mitigation. Here we explicitly quantify the impact of internal climate variability and climate data bias adjustment methods on regional and global glacier projections through 2100 for various emissions scenarios. Uncertainty from internal climate variability is comparable to climate model structural uncertainty (i.e., arising from physical representations and parameter settings) in the coming decades at the regional level, but is not a major source of uncertainty in centennial global glacier projections. Bias adjustment options (method and time period) moderately impact projections at regional and glacier scales, but have a smaller impact (∼2% of global glacier mass at 2100, relative to 2020) at global scales. In some regions, the uncertainty due to internal climate variability is larger than climate model structural uncertainty for the entirety of the 21st century, and bias adjustment options can nearly double the regional uncertainty by 2100. At the glacier scale, bias adjustments can lead to differences in projected decadal and centennial mass loss of up to 30%, although these greatest differences are associated with the smallest (&lt;1 km²) glaciers. Overall, internal climate variability and climate data bias adjustment methods are important to consider, especially in regional applications, to better estimate uncertainty in future sea-level rise and water resources availability.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005624","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144611950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flooding Projections Due To Groundwater Emergence Caused by Sea Level Variability","authors":"Austin T. Barnes,&nbsp;Mark A. Merrifield,&nbsp;Kian Bagheri,&nbsp;Morgan C. Levy,&nbsp;Hassan Davani","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006270","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006270","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rising groundwater tables due to sea level rise (SLR) pose a critical but understudied threat to low-lying coastal regions. This study uses field observations and dynamic modeling to investigate drivers of groundwater variability and to project flooding risks from emergent groundwater in Imperial Beach, California. Hourly groundwater table data from four monitoring wells (2021–2024) reveal distinct aquifer behaviors across soil types. In transmissive coastal sandy soils, groundwater levels are dominated by ocean tides, with secondary contributions from non-tidal sea level variability and seasonal recharge. In this setting, we calibrated an empirical groundwater model to observations, and forced the model with regional SLR scenarios. We project that groundwater emergence along the low-lying coastal road will begin by the 2060s under intermediate SLR trajectories, and escalate to near-daily flooding by 2100. Over 20% of San Diego County's coastline shares similar transmissive sandy geology and thus similar flooding risk. Results underscore the urgency of integrating groundwater hazards into coastal resilience planning, as current adaptation strategies in Imperial Beach—focused on surface flooding—are insufficient to address infrastructure vulnerabilities from below. This study provides a transferable framework for assessing groundwater-driven flooding in transmissive coastal aquifers, where SLR-induced groundwater rise threatens critical infrastructure decades before permanent inundation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006270","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144606647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}