Heat Risk Interdependencies in the UK: Implications for Adaptation

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI:10.1029/2024EF005797
Sara Mehryar, Candice Howarth, Declan Conway
{"title":"Heat Risk Interdependencies in the UK: Implications for Adaptation","authors":"Sara Mehryar,&nbsp;Candice Howarth,&nbsp;Declan Conway","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005797","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, yet many countries remain inadequately prepared to manage their impacts. Existing heat risk plans and responses often fail to account for the complex interdependencies among the various causes and impact pathways of heatwaves. Effective planning requires a system-level understanding of these interdependencies to identify strategic entry points for action. This paper employs a participatory system mapping approach to explore the interconnections among causes, impacts, and response actions during the UK heatwave events of summer 2022. Cognitive maps were developed shortly after the events, incorporating input from 38 stakeholders across sectors involved in the heatwave response. These maps informed a forensic disaster analysis designed to provide a holistic understanding of the heatwave's causes, impacts, and adaptation measures. By analyzing the interdependencies among these factors, we identified cascading effects and amplifiers that significantly intensified heat risk in the UK. Notably, we find that the primary heatwave impacts were often indirect, emerging or worsening due to cascading effects such as wildfires, drought, transportation disruptions, and the overburdening of first responders. In many cases, adaptation measures were reactive, addressing isolated, short-term impacts, while proactive, system-level approaches tackling interconnected impacts and root causes, such as vulnerable buildings, at-risk populations, and behavioral barriers, were largely absent. Additionally, we found notable variations in heat risk perceptions among groups. While individual sectors displayed a limited understanding of the broader heat risk system, a system-level perspective emerged through the aggregation of cognitive maps. The implications for adaptation research and policy are discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005797","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Earths Future","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024EF005797","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, yet many countries remain inadequately prepared to manage their impacts. Existing heat risk plans and responses often fail to account for the complex interdependencies among the various causes and impact pathways of heatwaves. Effective planning requires a system-level understanding of these interdependencies to identify strategic entry points for action. This paper employs a participatory system mapping approach to explore the interconnections among causes, impacts, and response actions during the UK heatwave events of summer 2022. Cognitive maps were developed shortly after the events, incorporating input from 38 stakeholders across sectors involved in the heatwave response. These maps informed a forensic disaster analysis designed to provide a holistic understanding of the heatwave's causes, impacts, and adaptation measures. By analyzing the interdependencies among these factors, we identified cascading effects and amplifiers that significantly intensified heat risk in the UK. Notably, we find that the primary heatwave impacts were often indirect, emerging or worsening due to cascading effects such as wildfires, drought, transportation disruptions, and the overburdening of first responders. In many cases, adaptation measures were reactive, addressing isolated, short-term impacts, while proactive, system-level approaches tackling interconnected impacts and root causes, such as vulnerable buildings, at-risk populations, and behavioral barriers, were largely absent. Additionally, we found notable variations in heat risk perceptions among groups. While individual sectors displayed a limited understanding of the broader heat risk system, a system-level perspective emerged through the aggregation of cognitive maps. The implications for adaptation research and policy are discussed.

Abstract Image

英国热风险的相互依赖性:对适应的影响
热浪正变得越来越频繁和强烈,但许多国家仍然没有做好充分准备来管理其影响。现有的热风险计划和应对措施往往未能考虑到热浪的各种原因和影响途径之间复杂的相互依存关系。有效的计划需要对这些相互依赖的系统级理解,以确定行动的战略切入点。本文采用参与式系统映射方法来探索2022年夏季英国热浪事件的原因、影响和应对行动之间的相互联系。认知地图是在事件发生后不久开发的,纳入了参与热浪应对的38个部门的利益攸关方的意见。这些地图为法医灾害分析提供了信息,旨在全面了解热浪的原因、影响和适应措施。通过分析这些因素之间的相互依赖关系,我们确定了在英国显著加剧热风险的级联效应和放大器。值得注意的是,我们发现热浪的主要影响往往是间接的,由于野火、干旱、交通中断和急救人员负担过重等级联效应而出现或恶化。在许多情况下,适应措施是被动的,针对的是孤立的短期影响,而应对相互关联的影响和根本原因(如脆弱的建筑物、高危人群和行为障碍)的主动的系统级方法在很大程度上是缺乏的。此外,我们发现各组之间在热风险感知方面存在显著差异。虽然个别部门对更广泛的热风险系统的理解有限,但通过认知地图的汇总,出现了系统级视角。讨论了气候变化对适应研究和政策的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信