Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Constrained Precipitation Extremes Reveal Unequal Future Socioeconomic Exposure","authors":"Ziyi Liu,&nbsp;Yao Yue,&nbsp;Louise Slater,&nbsp;Alistair G. L. Borthwick,&nbsp;Yuanfang Chai,&nbsp;Xiaofan Luan,&nbsp;Chiyuan Miao,&nbsp;Zhonghua Yang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004825","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004825","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Extreme precipitation can lead to major flooding, impacting human health and safety. Thus, reliable projections of population and GDP exposure to future extreme precipitation are imperative. Here, we quantify future precipitation characteristics from robust emergent constraint relationships between historical and future monthly precipitation extremes (99th percentile) across 19 CMIP6 models (<i>r</i>² &gt; 0.7 in 74–84% of 0.5° global land grids), and narrow uncertainty by 37.0–39.5% (absolute reduction being 0.753–0.774 mm/day). The constrained grid-averaged future 99th percentile extreme is 6.96 ± 0.0059, 7.03 ± 0.0061, 7.11 ± 0.0063, and 7.29 ± 0.0067 mm/day, under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, which exceeds historical extremes substantially in terms of intensity (12.9–19.7%) and frequency (1.6–2.3 times more). Future population and GDP exposed to 99th percentile extreme precipitation grow quickly, and are projected to exceed 1 million people in 27–40 countries and 10 billion USD (2005 Purchasing-Power Parity) in 48–77 countries. Growth of future population exposure is dominated by an increase in extreme precipitation frequency rather than a rise in population, especially in developed countries. GDP exposure is controlled by the coupled effects of rapid socio-economic development and significant shifts in precipitation frequency. Using indices of socio-economic vulnerability, government effectiveness and economic freedom, we identify the unequal situation that high-risk countries with high exposure are commonly characterized by low GDP per capita and high sociopolitical instability.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004825","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity","authors":"Ranjini Swaminathan,&nbsp;Jacob Schewe,&nbsp;Jeremy Walton,&nbsp;Klaus Zimmermann,&nbsp;Colin Jones,&nbsp;Richard A. Betts,&nbsp;Chantelle Burton,&nbsp;Chris D. Jones,&nbsp;Matthias Mengel,&nbsp;Christopher P. O. Reyer,&nbsp;Andrew G. Turner,&nbsp;Katja Weigel","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004901","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004901","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the latest-generation models have high effective climate sensitivities (EffCS). It has been argued these “hot” models are unrealistic and should therefore be excluded from analyses of climate change impacts. Whether this would improve regional impact assessments, or make them worse, is unclear. Here we show there is no universal relationship between EffCS and projected changes in a number of important climatic drivers of regional impacts. Analyzing heavy rainfall events, meteorological drought, and fire weather in different regions, we find little or no significant correlation with EffCS for most regions and climatic drivers. Even when a correlation is found, internal variability and processes unrelated to EffCS have similar effects on projected changes in the climatic drivers as EffCS. Model selection based solely on EffCS appears to be unjustified and may neglect realistic impacts, leading to an underestimation of climate risks.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004901","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projecting Future Chronic Coastal Hazard Impacts, Hotspots, and Uncertainty at Regional Scale","authors":"Meredith Leung,&nbsp;Laura Cagigal,&nbsp;Fernando Mendez,&nbsp;Peter Ruggiero","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005523","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005523","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While there is high certainty that chronic coastal hazards like flooding and erosion are increasing due to climate change induced sea-level rise, there is high <i>un</i>certainty surrounding the timing, intensity, and location of future hazard impacts. Assessments that quantify these aspects of future hazards are critical for adaptation planning under a changing climate and can reveal new insights into the drivers of coastal hazards. In particular, probabilistic simulations of future hazard impacts can improve these assessments by explicitly quantifying uncertainty and by better simulating dependence structures between the complex multivariate drivers of hazards. In this study, a regional-scale probabilistic assessment of climate change induced coastal hazards is conducted for the Cascadia region (Northern Washington to Northern California), USA during the 21st century. Three co-produced hazard proxies for beach safety, erosion, and flooding are quantified to identify areas of high hazard impacts and determine hazard uncertainty under three sea-level rise scenarios. A novel chronic coastal hazard hotspot indicator is introduced that identifies areas that may experience significant increases in hazard impacts compared to present day conditions. We find that beaches near the California-Oregon border and in Northern Washington have larger hazard impacts and hazard uncertainty due to their morphologic setting. Erosional hazards, relative to beach safety and coastal flooding, will increase the most in Cascadia during the 21st century under all sea-level rise scenarios. Finally, we find that hazard uncertainty associated with wave and water level variability exceeds the uncertainty associated with sea-level rise for most of the 21st century.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005523","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impacts of Warming on Shallow and Deep-Water Fisheries in New Zealand","authors":"S. Datta,&nbsp;H. Beran,&nbsp;A. Rogers","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004857","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004857","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is already impacting ecosystem composition and species distributions. Here we study two different, but equally valuable New Zealand fisheries (Tasman Bay and Golden Bay, and Chatham Rise), and the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure. We use <i>mizer</i>, a size-based multispecies modeling package, to simulate interacting fish species in each ecosystem. Utilizing <i>therMizer</i>, an extension of <i>mizer</i> which incorporates temperature effects on species' metabolic rate and aerobic scope, we implement historical climate data from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP). This enables us to recreate the historical time period of 1961–2010, deriving reasonable steady state biomasses closely matching past observations. We then carry out a controlled warming simulation experiment, allowing for temperature to remain steady or to increase for both ecosystems, both with and without fishing pressure. The shallower ecosystem of Tasman and Golden Bay has more thermally tolerant species and experiences an overall increase in community biomass under warming, whilst the deeper ecosystem of Chatham Rise suffers an overall decline. In addition, fishing has a stronger negative impact on the Chatham Rise community. Smaller bodied animals also tend to be more resilient, both to warming and fishing impacts. Despite differences in community responses, the majority of important fisheries suffer reduced yields under warming in both ecosystems. Issues raised during the incorporation of temperature effects include species' thermal tolerances and model calibration to data. This study facilitates ecosystem intercomparisons under climate change and offers insight into drivers of ecosystem responses.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004857","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142763978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flooding is Not Like Filling a Bath","authors":"Brett F. Sanders,&nbsp;Oliver E. J. Wing,&nbsp;Paul D. Bates","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005164","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Damage and disruption from flooding have rapidly escalated over recent decades. Knowing who and what is at risk, how these risks are changing, and what is driving these changes is of immense importance to flood management and policy. Accurate predictions of flood risk are also critical to public safety. However, many high-profile research studies reporting risks at national and global scales rely upon a significant oversimplification of how floods behave—as a level pool—an approach known as bathtub modeling that is avoided in flood management practice due to known biases (e.g., &gt;200% error in flood area) compared to physics-based modeling. With publicity by news media, findings that would likely not be trusted by flood management professionals are thus widely communicated to policy makers and the public, scientific credibility is put at risk, and maladaptation becomes more likely. Here, we call upon researchers to abandon the practice of bathtub modeling in flood risk studies, and for those involved in the peer-review process to ensure the conclusions of impact analyses are consistent with the limitations of the assumed flood physics. We document biases and uncertainties from bathtub modeling in both coastal and inland geographies, and we present examples of physics-based modeling approaches suited to large-scale applications. Reducing biases and uncertainties in flood hazard estimates will sharpen scientific understanding of changing risks, better serve the needs of policy makers, enable news media to more objectively report present and future risks to the public, and better inform adaptation planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005164","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142859879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Disentangling Spatio-Temporal Impacts of Multiple Environmental Factors on the Global Discharge Regime","authors":"Tinh Vu,&nbsp;Jens Kiesel,&nbsp;Björn Guse,&nbsp;Sami Domisch,&nbsp;Nicola Fohrer","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004267","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004267","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global discharge regimes are strongly affected by multiple environmental drivers. It remains a challenge to relate their contributions and complex spatio-temporal cause-effect chains to a given time and location. To disentangle these relationships, we combined 12 environmental variables with changes in more than 25,000 discharge time series globally and identified the variable importance across climate zones using random forest analyses. The results show that (a) about two-thirds of the global catchments experienced significant changes in discharge between 1980s and 1990s and (b) more than 80% of the basins with new dams built during the study period have experienced changes, twice as many as basins without dams. Furthermore, (c) most environmental variables were subject to significant changes, especially precipitation, temperature and urban land cover; (d) strong changes in the discharge regime were mostly associated with precipitation, followed by land cover changes, and (e) impacts of water infrastructure are dominant in basins with weak evidence of change in discharge. Our findings highlight the contribution of each individual environmental factor on global discharge regimes and can be used to inform water-related studies and global modeling efforts in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004267","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142764089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projected Intensification and Expansion of Heat Stress and Related Population Exposure Over Africa Under Future Climates","authors":"Alima Dajuma,&nbsp;Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla,&nbsp;Moustapha Tall,&nbsp;Mansour Almazroui,&nbsp;Ernest Afiesimama,&nbsp;Alessandro Dosio,&nbsp;Wilfran Moufouma-Okia,&nbsp;Arona Diedhiou,&nbsp;Filippo Giorgi","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004646","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004646","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Africa lacks comprehensive studies related to the intensification and expansion of high levels of heat stress and the related population exposure. In this regards, two heat stress indices (HI and UTCI) are applied to 30 CMIP6 GCMs to assess the robust changes in heat stress over Africa during the late 21st century under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 forcing scenarios. The analysis includes spatial extent, frequency and population exposure of different risk levels (Safe, Caution, Extreme Caution and Danger) gradually rising as the value of the heat index increases. The projections show a recession of Safe areas and a robust expansion of the Caution and Extreme caution classes, irrespective of the seasons and scenarios. The largest change of fractional areal cover, estimated between 23.9% and 30.7% of Africa land areas, occurs for the Extreme caution category over West Africa, East Africa, Central Africa and part of East southern Africa in JJA under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Furthermore, regions north of 5°S are projected to face an average annual increase of the number of days with high-end heat stress conditions intensifying as greenhouse gas forcing increases. Under the SSP5-8.5, the change in the number of days with Extreme caution ranges between 60% and 80%, while that of days in the Danger category reaches 10%–20%. As a result, the total population exposure to the Extreme caution category is projected to increase over West Africa, East Africa, and Central Africa under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, while for the Danger class, the exposure increase is limited to the Sahel regions under SSP5-8.5. These exposures are due to the intensification of heat stress but also to its interaction with an increased population. Our results thus highlight the need of adaptation measures to extreme heat in Africa in order to ensure healthy population and safe and efficient working conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004646","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142764088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamical Factors Heavily Modulate the Future Increase of Sub-Daily Extreme Precipitation in the Alpine-Mediterranean Region","authors":"Eleonora Dallan,&nbsp;Francesco Marra,&nbsp;Giorgia Fosser,&nbsp;Marco Marani,&nbsp;Marco Borga","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005185","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Quantifying the future probability of sub-daily extreme precipitation in a changing climate is crucial for risk management, engineering, and insurance. Kilometer-scale convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) represent convective precipitation and complex terrain more realistically than other climate models, thereby enhancing the representation of sub-daily extremes. This study employs a novel statistical approach to evaluate projected changes in extreme sub-daily precipitation and provides a physical interpretation of their driving processes. It focuses on the complex-topography area of northern Italy, where resides almost half of the Italian population and a significant portion of the Italian economy, with a rich diversity in industry, agriculture, tourism. We use precipitation data from a CPMs ensemble covering three periods: historical (1996–2005), near future (2041–2050), far future (2090–2099) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Sub-daily to daily precipitation extremes with return periods up to 100 years are examined. We find a general intensification of extremes across all durations (from 1 to 24 hr), stronger at shorter durations and rarer probabilities. Spatial patterns vary with duration, with higher and significant increases emerging in mountainous areas in Eastern Alps and North Apennines. The detected changes cannot be explained by thermodynamics alone, highlighting the modulating role of the changes in atmospheric dynamics. These findings are crucial for enhancing risk management strategies and adapting to natural hazards in a warming climate. This approach may be exploited in larger scale analysis.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005185","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142749014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate and Substrate Stoichiometry Co-Regulate Free-Living Nitrogen Fixation at Regional and Global Scales","authors":"Haixiao Dai,&nbsp;Zekang Liu,&nbsp;Ali Bahadur,&nbsp;Mianhai Zheng,&nbsp;Jihua Wu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005093","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The traditional view holds that the global distribution of biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) in terrestrial ecosystems is primarily affected by climate, associating certain warm, wet low-latitude regions with higher BNF rates. However, this view fails to explain the observation of the low free-living BNF rates in these sites. Here, we conducted two field experiments and a global synthesis to assess the regulatory patterns of free-living BNF at both regional and global scales. The field experiments showed that the regional distributions of litter free-living BNF did not necessarily peak at warm and wet sites, due to co-regulation by climate and substrate stoichiometry (especially carbon:(nitrogen:phosphorus)). Subsequently, the global synthesis demonstrated that these phenomena and co-regulatory patterns persisted in free-living BNF in litter and other substrates (e.g., soil) at global scale. Our findings highlight the important role of substrate stoichiometry in regulating the spatial distribution of free-living BNF.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005093","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142748986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying Global Hydrological Sensitivity to CO2 Physiological and Radiative Forcings Under Large CO2 Increases","authors":"Xuanze Zhang,&nbsp;Yongqiang Zhang,&nbsp;Ying-Ping Wang,&nbsp;Qiuhong Tang,&nbsp;Yunyun Ban,&nbsp;Chanyue Ren,&nbsp;Husi Letu,&nbsp;Jiancheng Shi,&nbsp;Changming Liu","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004246","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Prediction of surface freshwater flux (precipitation or evaporation) in a CO₂-enriched climate is highly uncertain, primarily depending on the hydrological responses to physiological and radiative forcings of CO₂ increase. Using the 1pctCO₂ (a 1% per year CO₂ increase scenario) experiments of 12 CMIP6 models, we first decouple and quantify the magnitude of global hydrological sensitivity to CO₂ physiological and radiative forcings. Results show that the direct global hydrological sensitivity (for land plus ocean precipitation) to CO₂ increase only is −0.09 ± 0.07% (100 ppm) ⁻¹ and to CO₂-induced warming alone is 1.54 ± 0.24% K⁻¹. The latter is about 10% larger than the global apparent hydrological sensitivity (i.e., including all effects, not only direct responses to warming, <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>η</mi>\u0000 <mi>a</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${eta }_{a}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> = 1.39 ± 0.22% K⁻¹). These hydrological sensitivities are relatively stable over transient 2× to 4 × CO₂ scenario. The intensification of the global water cycle are dominated by the CO₂ radiative effect (79 ± 12%) with a smaller positive contribution from the interaction between the two effects (6 ± 12%), but are reduced by the CO₂ physiological effect (−10 ± 8%). This finding underlines the importance of CO₂ vegetation physiology in global water cycle projections under a CO₂-enriched and warming climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004246","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142749006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}