Earths Future最新文献_第2页

Freshwater Availability in the Mississippi River Basin and Adjacent Texas Aquifers Under Human and Climate Pressures 在人类和气候压力下，密西西比河流域和邻近的德克萨斯州含水层的淡水可用性

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-03-31 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006653

Ashraf Rateb, Bridget R. Scanlon, Yadu Pokhrel, Aman Shrestha, Mengqi Jia, Bin Peng

{"title":"Freshwater Availability in the Mississippi River Basin and Adjacent Texas Aquifers Under Human and Climate Pressures","authors":"Ashraf Rateb, Bridget R. Scanlon, Yadu Pokhrel, Aman Shrestha, Mengqi Jia, Bin Peng","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006653","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006653","url":null,"abstract":"The Mississippi River Basin and adjacent Texas aquifers (MRB–TX) face intensifying water stress from irrigation demand, extremes, and climate change. We quantify spatiotemporal storage trajectories by integrating long-term groundwater-level records, GRACE/GRACE-FO terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA), irrigation water-use reanalysis, drought diagnostics, and CMIP6 precipitation projections. Over 1950–2024, aquifer-mean groundwater levels declined by ∼16.7 m in the Central and Southern High Plains and ∼15.2 m in the Carrizo–Wilcox, whereas humid northern and eastern aquifers were broadly stable and a midcontinent belt showed near-zero net change. GRACE-based TWSA indicates net losses of 85 ± 15 km3 since 2002 in the arid western MRB–TX, gains of 152 ± 57 km3 in the Great Lakes and northern Plains, and changes that are not distinguishable from zero (32 ± 30 km3) in the lower Mississippi and Gulf Coast. Irrigation withdrawals averaged ∼52 km3 yr−1 during 2000–2020 and were predominantly groundwater-sourced, with pronounced peaks during drought years. Under SSP2-4.5, most models project increased annual precipitation over much of the basin, driven by winter–spring wetting in humid regions and more uncertain summer changes, including potential drying in the arid west. Assuming continuation of recent groundwater-level trends, portions of the High Plains and Carrizo–Wilcox aquifers are projected to cross −20 m relative to the 1950 reference level by mid-century. Together, these results identify a longitudinal gradient in MRB–TX water storage and highlight the arid southwest as the region of greatest management urgency.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006653","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147708424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Disentangling the Roles of Microbial Traits and Mineral Protection in Regulating Temperature Sensitivity of Soil Carbon Decomposition in Eroded and Depositional Agricultural Soils 微生物性状和矿物质保护在侵蚀和沉积农业土壤碳分解温度敏感性调节中的作用

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-03-30 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007448

Shengzhao Wei, Xiaoli Cheng, Yuan Li, Shuang Ding, Li Rong, Enwei Zhang, Yawen Li, Xingwu Duan

{"title":"Disentangling the Roles of Microbial Traits and Mineral Protection in Regulating Temperature Sensitivity of Soil Carbon Decomposition in Eroded and Depositional Agricultural Soils","authors":"Shengzhao Wei, Xiaoli Cheng, Yuan Li, Shuang Ding, Li Rong, Enwei Zhang, Yawen Li, Xingwu Duan","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007448","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007448","url":null,"abstract":"The temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon decomposition (Q10) governs the fate of soil carbon under global warming. Although erosion redistributes soil carbon at scales comparable to the terrestrial carbon sink, how erosion reshapes Q10 across large regional scales remains elusive. Here, we quantified erosion-induced changes in Q10 across four erosion-prone regions in China, spanning contrasting soil structures and geomorphic settings. We found that erosion increased Q10 by 3.6% in eroded zones, but decreased it by 8.6% in depositional zones relative to non-eroded controls across regions, revealing an erosion–deposition asymmetry. This pattern reflected a shift in the dominant regulators of Q10 along hillslopes: depositional zones were jointly regulated by carbon quality and mineral–aggregate protection, whereas in eroded zones, reduced mineral protection lowered substrate quality, triggering a microbial shift toward higher oxidative capacity, which elevated Q10. Notably, this erosion-driven response was attenuated and statistically insignificant in the Loess Plateau, which can be attributed to aeolian-induced physicochemical homogenization and weak mineral–aggregate protection. Model projections further indicate that by 2100, the increase in carbon emissions from eroded soils would exceed that from depositional soils by 12.4% under SSP2–4.5 and 26.5% under SSP5–8.5 scenarios. Together, these findings reveal a mechanistic trade-off between mineral protection and microbial functional traits and highlight the necessity of integrating erosion-driven carbon–climate feedbacks into Earth system models in a soil-structure-dependent manner.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007448","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147708347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Escalating Extreme River Discharge Events Driven by Precipitation Changes in the Yangtze River Basin 降水变化驱动的长江流域极端流量事件升级

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-03-30 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007133

Xiaoke Xu, Anning Huang, Yinghong Jing, Chunlei Gu, Xiaojun She, Yao Li

{"title":"Escalating Extreme River Discharge Events Driven by Precipitation Changes in the Yangtze River Basin","authors":"Xiaoke Xu, Anning Huang, Yinghong Jing, Chunlei Gu, Xiaojun She, Yao Li","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007133","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme river discharge events (ERDEs) directly induce catastrophic floods, posing severe threats to human life and infrastructure. Understanding the precipitation patterns that precede ERDEs is critical for identifying early flood warnings. This study investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics of 3-hourly ERDEs across the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) from 2000 to 2019. A Random Forest model was employed to explore the nonlinear relationships between the cumulative precipitation in local/upstream regions and the number of ERDEs, aiming to identify precipitation patterns and the associated atmospheric processes. The results reveal that ERDEs predominantly occurred in the upper reaches of the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the middle to lower YRB, spanning from March to November, with a peak in July. A significant increasing trend in the occurrence of ERDEs was observed over the 20 years in the YRB. In the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the Dongting Lake Plain, ERDEs were primarily affected by upstream precipitation, associated with the plateau vortex and backwards-tilting trough. In contrast, ERDEs in the western Sichuan Basin and Poyang Lake Plain were mainly driven by local precipitation, linked to the forward-tilting trough and Jianghuai cyclone. Furthermore, regions such as the western Sichuan Plateau, central-eastern Sichuan Basin, Wushan Mountain range, and lower Yangtze River Plain were influenced by both upstream and local precipitation, which were attributed to the westerly trough, southwest vortex, double-vortex, and convective system on the edge of the Northwestern Pacific Subtropical High, respectively. This study presents a novel perspective on identifying early warning signals of flood risk across YRB.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007133","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147708346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing the Effect of a Deep-Rooted Grass on Belowground Carbon Storage in Cultivated Land: Insights From a Multi-Site US Study 评估深根草对耕地地下碳储量的影响：来自美国多地点研究的见解

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-03-30 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007102

Eric W. Slessarev, Jennifer Pett-Ridge, Kyungjin Min, Asmeret Asefaw Berhe, Srabani Das, Randall D. Jackson, Julie D. Jastrow, Megan Kan, Sandeep Kumar, Todd Longbottom, Karis J. McFarlane, Erik Oerter, Brian K. Richards, G. Philip Robertson, Gregg R. Sanford, Erin E. Nuccio

{"title":"Assessing the Effect of a Deep-Rooted Grass on Belowground Carbon Storage in Cultivated Land: Insights From a Multi-Site US Study","authors":"Eric W. Slessarev, Jennifer Pett-Ridge, Kyungjin Min, Asmeret Asefaw Berhe, Srabani Das, Randall D. Jackson, Julie D. Jastrow, Megan Kan, Sandeep Kumar, Todd Longbottom, Karis J. McFarlane, Erik Oerter, Brian K. Richards, G. Philip Robertson, Gregg R. Sanford, Erin E. Nuccio","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007102","url":null,"abstract":"Agriculture depletes soil organic carbon (SOC), partly due to the exclusion of deep-rooted perennials. Reintroducing deep-rooted perennials to cultivated land may help to mitigate SOC loss. We quantified the effect of deep roots on SOC by comparing 8 to 30 year-old stands of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) with paired annual row crop fields at 12 sites across the central and eastern USA. We hypothesized that switchgrass would store more root C and SOC than neighboring shallow-rooted annual crops, and that these effects would extend deeper than 30 cm. We also evaluated whether switchgrass stimulates decomposition of SOC at depth using radiocarbon (14C). Finally, we explored whether the effect of switchgrass on SOC is moderated by soil chemical and physical properties. While the effect of switchgrass on SOC in the surface 100 cm was positive at most sites, the average effect was not statistically significant (difference in SOC = 0.6 kg C m−2 [95% CI −0.8 to +1.9 kg C m−2]). By contrast, we found that root C was consistently more abundant under switchgrass, yielding an estimated additional 0.6 kg C m−2 in the surface 100 cm of soil [95% CI +0.5 to +0.7 kg C m−2]. 14C measurements suggested that root C inputs were adding to existing SOC without stimulating decomposition. The effect of switchgrass on belowground C was not strongly related to any of the soil properties that we evaluated. Our observations show that root C can contribute substantially to belowground C stocks when deep-rooted perennials replace shallow-rooted crops.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007102","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147708345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unequal Land and Water Changes Between Nations Driven by International Boundary Rivers: Mapping and Temporal Analysis of Shared Borders Between China and Its Neighbors 由国际边界河流驱动的国与国之间不平等的土地和水资源变化：中国与邻国共享边界的制图和时间分析

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-03-30 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007422

Shengquan Lu, Bin Wu, Wenzhu Zhang, Xiangying Kong, Guanhai Gu, Kai Jiang

{"title":"Unequal Land and Water Changes Between Nations Driven by International Boundary Rivers: Mapping and Temporal Analysis of Shared Borders Between China and Its Neighbors","authors":"Shengquan Lu, Bin Wu, Wenzhu Zhang, Xiangying Kong, Guanhai Gu, Kai Jiang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007422","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007422","url":null,"abstract":"International Boundary Rivers (IBRs), as natural political frontiers, constitute one-third of China's land borders. However, a lack of systematic monitoring has led to a limited understanding of the distribution of these politically significant rivers and the potential risks posed by their dynamic nature. Here, we present the first comprehensive inventory and dynamic analysis of over one hundred IBRs (totaling ∼7,500 km) between China and 10 neighboring countries, quantifying the unequal changes they induced between nations over the past 36 years. Our findings reveal that although China's IBRs are numerous, their water distribution and dynamics are predominantly controlled by large northeastern systems, such as the Amur River. Over the last 36 years, these rivers have undergone widespread morphological changes and migration, with maximum channel shifts exceeding 1 km. Most IBRs are dominated by the Permanent-to-Seasonal transition, indicating a general decline in stability. Critically, the asymmetric nature of river migration has subjected riparian nations to unequal erosion and deposition, resulting in physical land gains and losses. This pattern is particularly pronounced along the large IBRs bordering Russia and North Korea, significantly affecting water resource allocation and land use. Furthermore, while bilateral treaties stipulate national borders remain fixed irrespective of river changes, the incessant movement of IBRs has led to the emergence and disappearance of over a hundred river islands. These sensitive changes create potential territorial risks. We argue that IBRs are geopolitical water bodies demanding urgent attention, and this study underscores the urgency of collaborative efforts among nations to maintain their stability.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007422","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147708348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

On the Future of Extreme Rainfall in New Zealand 关于新西兰极端降雨的未来

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-03-28 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007427

Muhammad Fikri Sigid, Luke J. Harrington, Hamish Lewis

{"title":"On the Future of Extreme Rainfall in New Zealand","authors":"Muhammad Fikri Sigid, Luke J. Harrington, Hamish Lewis","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007427","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007427","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme rainfall is intensifying under climate change, but projected changes in the intensity, frequency, and spatial extent of extremes are not yet well constrained for smaller nations like New Zealand. Here, we use high-resolution (∼12 km) dynamically downscaled CMIP6 climate simulations to examine future changes in annual maximum one-day (Rx1d) and three-day (Rx3d) rainfall under moderate- (SSP2-4.5) and high-emissions (SSP3-7.0) scenarios across New Zealand. Projections show widespread increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall through the twenty-first century, with stronger intensification under SSP3-7.0 and more pronounced increases for Rx1d. Across models, average intensities increase by 7%–18% (8%–28%) for Rx1d and 4%–15% (5%–24%) for Rx3d under SSP2-4.5 (SSP3-7.0). While much of New Zealand is projected to experience increases in the most extreme rainfall events, high levels of internal variability result in 20%–30% of the country recording their wettest events within the historical experiment, rather than the final 30 years of the twenty-first century. Nevertheless, models consistently project 40%–50% (5%–10%) of locations around New Zealand will experience at least a doubling (trebling) in the frequency of historically extreme (once-a-decade) events by the late twenty-first century, albeit with no clear differences between regions as to who will experience more significant changes. Future record-shattering rainfall events resemble some of New Zealand's most devastating historical events, including Cyclone Bola (1988) and the May 1923 Canterbury storm, suggesting that the most impactful events of the future will manifest with familiar synoptic patterns but greater intensity under a warming climate.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007427","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147643223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dust-Induced Losses in Solar Photovoltaic Potential and Their Long-Term Changes Over North Africa 北非地区沙尘引起的太阳能光伏潜力损失及其长期变化

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-03-28 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006914

Yuhan Zhang, Yawen Liu, Kang-En Huang, Hanzheng Zhu, Minghuai Wang

{"title":"Dust-Induced Losses in Solar Photovoltaic Potential and Their Long-Term Changes Over North Africa","authors":"Yuhan Zhang, Yawen Liu, Kang-En Huang, Hanzheng Zhu, Minghuai Wang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006914","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006914","url":null,"abstract":"North Africa (NA) offers exceptional potential for large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment to mitigate climate change. Dust aerosols, however, pose a barrier to PV performance by dimming sunlight dimming effect (DE) and settling on panels soiling effect (SE), yet their relative roles across NA's diverse climate zones remain unclear. Here, we employ machine learning and a refined empirical model to quantify dust-induced PV potential losses across NA from 2003 to 2022. Results reveal pronounced spatial contrasts in DE and SE dominance. In Sahara source regions, SE accounts for over 80% of annual losses due to substantial deposition and scarce rainfall for cleaning. Conversely, DE dominates (∼70.6%) in downwind Western Africa (WAF), where long-range dust transport prevails. The transitional Sahel experiences significant influences from both effects. Seasonally, DE peaks in winter over WAF due to Harmattan winds-driven dust transport, and migrates northward with seasonal wind shifts. In contrast, SE seasonality is primarily regulated by precipitation rather than dust deposition, particularly in the Sahel, where wet–dry cycles tightly constrain cleaning. Long-term trend analysis indicates declining DE and rising SE in the western domain, underscoring SE's growing importance. Crucially, SE trends are influenced not only by annual precipitation changes but also by their seasonal alignment with peak SE periods. Even minor decreases in winter precipitation during high-SE periods significantly exacerbate SE in WAF, while increased wet-season rainfall during low-SE periods in Sahel offers limited benefits. These findings highlight the need for region- and season-specific strategies to manage dust-induced solar PV losses.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006914","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147643222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Increasing Population and Cropland Exposure to Human-Induced Sequential Heatwave-Downpour Events 越来越多的人口和农田暴露于人类引起的连续热浪-倾盆大雨事件

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-03-27 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007442

Yuxin Guan, Wei Li, Zhicong Yin, Huijun Wang

{"title":"Increasing Population and Cropland Exposure to Human-Induced Sequential Heatwave-Downpour Events","authors":"Yuxin Guan, Wei Li, Zhicong Yin, Huijun Wang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007442","url":null,"abstract":"Compound sequential heatwave-downpour (SHD) events, characterized by abrupt shifts from heatwaves to heavy rainfall, pose serious threats to health, infrastructure, and agriculture. However, the anthropogenic influence on the increasing trend of SHD events is poorly understood, and projections also exhibit large uncertainties. Our study revealed that the affected area of SHD events has grown notably across the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic influences account for approximately 82.2% of the increase in affected areas of SHD events, with greenhouse gas emissions contributing the most. The constrained projection found that the exposure of population and cropland will increase nearly 8-fold under a high-emission scenario in the long term (2081–2100), compared to the current climate baseline (1991–2020). Notably, climate change, rather than population or land use change, is identified as the dominant driver of this increased exposure. Our finding highlights that reducing greenhouse gas emissions can mitigate the impacts of SHD on populations and croplands.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007442","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147643201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatial Spillover and Differential Impacts of Urban Shrinkage on Air Pollutants: Implications for Sustainable Urban Futures 城市收缩对空气污染物的空间溢出和差异影响：对可持续城市未来的启示

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-03-27 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006346

Fengdi Ma, Yulin Yan, Liang Wan

{"title":"Spatial Spillover and Differential Impacts of Urban Shrinkage on Air Pollutants: Implications for Sustainable Urban Futures","authors":"Fengdi Ma, Yulin Yan, Liang Wan","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006346","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006346","url":null,"abstract":"Rapid urbanization has historically been linked to escalating air pollution, yet the environmental consequences of urban shrinkage—a growing global trend of population decline and economic downturn—remain underexplored. While theory suggests shrinkage might alleviate pollution through reduced anthropogenic activities, empirical evidence on the complex, multi-pollutant dynamics remains limited. To address this gap, we quantified the impact of urban shrinkage on the growth rates of six major air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, O3, NO2, and CO) across 280 Chinese cities (2013–2022) using a Spatial Durbin Model integrated with satellite and socioeconomic data. Our results reveal an asymmetric environmental response to shrinkage. Demographic decline acts as a passive restoration mechanism for primary pollutants, reducing the growth rates of PM2.5 and PM10 by 10.5% and 16.0%, respectively, accounting for over one-fifth of the total particulate reduction in these regions. Conversely, a structural trade-off emerged: shrinkage accelerated regional NO2 reductions (−9.0%) but contributed to a substantial surge in O3 concentrations (+25.4%), likely driven by altered chemical regimes. Crucially, we detect strong positive spatial spillovers, indicating that shrinking cities export air quality benefits to adjacent regions. These findings challenge growth-oriented environmental planning, offering critical insights for regional air quality governance and fostering regional coordination in the era of global demographic transition.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006346","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147666326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Discharge Regimes of North American High-Latitude Rivers 北美高纬度河流的流量状况

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-03-26 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007169

Karen L. Jorgenson, Tamara K. Harms

{"title":"Discharge Regimes of North American High-Latitude Rivers","authors":"Karen L. Jorgenson, Tamara K. Harms","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007169","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007169","url":null,"abstract":"Regimes of river discharge, characterized by the timing and magnitude of seasonal and stochastic flow variation, are changing in northern rivers due to warming climate. However, spatial heterogeneity in discharge regimes across high-latitude regions has made it difficult to predict flows under accelerated warming. We quantified seasonal and stochastic variation in mean daily discharge from 172 rivers of Alaska and northern Canada over 2000–2022 and compared flow regimes of rivers across ecoregions, climate gradients, and cryospheric conditions. Floods were shorter and occurred later in the year, on average, in Marine West Coast Forest compared to other ecoregions. Strongest seasonal relative to stochastic variation in flows occurred in the snowmelt-dominated Northwestern Forested Mountains ecoregion. Discharge in glacial watersheds was more strongly seasonal than in non-glacial watersheds, likely due to production of meltwater in summer. Greater rainfall in the watershed was correlated with weaker seasonal variation in flow and earlier annual occurrence of high-flow anomalies. In contrast, greater snowfall resulted in strongly seasonal regimes with anomalous high flows later in the year. We also contrasted discharge regimes of 72 rivers between ∼1970–1992 and 2000–2022, finding less seasonal relative to stochastic variation in recent decades and contemporary anomalous high flows occurring later in the year relative to historic regimes. Discharge from glacial rivers was relatively resistant to change, suggesting buffering by seasonal glacial melt. Shrinking of the cryosphere and shifts in the precipitation regime due to continued warming will increase stochasticity and decrease seasonality in the flows of high-latitude rivers.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007169","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147643191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0