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Flooding Projections Due To Groundwater Emergence Caused by Sea Level Variability 由海平面变化引起的地下水涌现引起的洪水预估
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-12 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006270
Austin T. Barnes, Mark A. Merrifield, Kian Bagheri, Morgan C. Levy, Hassan Davani
{"title":"Flooding Projections Due To Groundwater Emergence Caused by Sea Level Variability","authors":"Austin T. Barnes,&nbsp;Mark A. Merrifield,&nbsp;Kian Bagheri,&nbsp;Morgan C. Levy,&nbsp;Hassan Davani","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006270","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006270","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rising groundwater tables due to sea level rise (SLR) pose a critical but understudied threat to low-lying coastal regions. This study uses field observations and dynamic modeling to investigate drivers of groundwater variability and to project flooding risks from emergent groundwater in Imperial Beach, California. Hourly groundwater table data from four monitoring wells (2021–2024) reveal distinct aquifer behaviors across soil types. In transmissive coastal sandy soils, groundwater levels are dominated by ocean tides, with secondary contributions from non-tidal sea level variability and seasonal recharge. In this setting, we calibrated an empirical groundwater model to observations, and forced the model with regional SLR scenarios. We project that groundwater emergence along the low-lying coastal road will begin by the 2060s under intermediate SLR trajectories, and escalate to near-daily flooding by 2100. Over 20% of San Diego County's coastline shares similar transmissive sandy geology and thus similar flooding risk. Results underscore the urgency of integrating groundwater hazards into coastal resilience planning, as current adaptation strategies in Imperial Beach—focused on surface flooding—are insufficient to address infrastructure vulnerabilities from below. This study provides a transferable framework for assessing groundwater-driven flooding in transmissive coastal aquifers, where SLR-induced groundwater rise threatens critical infrastructure decades before permanent inundation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006270","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144606647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Leverage Points and Cascading Impacts Analysis in Nexus Systems Using System Dynamics Modeling 使用系统动力学建模的Nexus系统中的杠杆点和级联影响分析
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-12 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006190
Virginia R. Coletta, Irene Pluchinotta, Vassilios Pisinaras, Andreas Panagopoulos, Raffaele Giordano, Alessandro Pagano, Umberto Fratino, Alberto Montanari
{"title":"Leverage Points and Cascading Impacts Analysis in Nexus Systems Using System Dynamics Modeling","authors":"Virginia R. Coletta,&nbsp;Irene Pluchinotta,&nbsp;Vassilios Pisinaras,&nbsp;Andreas Panagopoulos,&nbsp;Raffaele Giordano,&nbsp;Alessandro Pagano,&nbsp;Umberto Fratino,&nbsp;Alberto Montanari","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006190","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Operationalizing the Water-Ecosystem-Food (WEF) Nexus approach for sustainable resource management is challenging due to the complexity, non-linearity, and uncertainty of interconnected resources systems. A promising strategy requires identifying leverage points, namely key elements and processes where interventions can generate significant systemic change. However, leverage points are often difficult to discover and typically treated as static nodes rather than evolving and uncertain. To overcome this gap, qualitative and quantitative System Dynamics modeling tools are combined with other system-analysis methods. Unlike traditional approaches, the proposed modeling framework analyses leverage points as key dynamic elements, links, and feedback loops that activate and shift in intensity based on system state. The modeling process, applied to the Pinios River Basin (PRB) in Greece, helped revealing critical leverage points, including factors such as groundwater quality and agricultural productivity, key causal influences like the impact of natural areas' condition on agrotourism, and relevant feedback loops, such as the reinforcing dynamic driving the decline of natural areas. Deterministic and stochastic simulations contributed to validate the robustness of the modeling framework, with stochastic methods providing additional insights into the variability and uncertainty of system behavior. Recurring leverage points across simulations proved essential to drive effective management during critical transitions. Beyond the PRB, this modeling process provides a versatile framework for understanding and managing complex multi-sector systems, applicable to different contexts to support strategic decision-making toward sustainability and cascading impacts mitigation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006190","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144606646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Elevated Forest Canopy Loss After Wildfires in Moist and Cool Forests in the Pacific Northwest 太平洋西北部潮湿和凉爽的森林火灾后森林冠层损失增加
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-12 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006373
Huilin Huang, Yun Qian, Dalei Hao, Nate Mcdowell, Lingcheng Li, Brendan M. Rogers, Mingjie Shi, Karl Rittger, Yanjun Song, Gautam Bisht, Xingyuan Chen
{"title":"Elevated Forest Canopy Loss After Wildfires in Moist and Cool Forests in the Pacific Northwest","authors":"Huilin Huang,&nbsp;Yun Qian,&nbsp;Dalei Hao,&nbsp;Nate Mcdowell,&nbsp;Lingcheng Li,&nbsp;Brendan M. Rogers,&nbsp;Mingjie Shi,&nbsp;Karl Rittger,&nbsp;Yanjun Song,&nbsp;Gautam Bisht,&nbsp;Xingyuan Chen","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006373","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006373","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wildfire frequency, intensity, and rate of spread are increasing across the Western U.S, resulting in more severe ecosystem impacts. Significant tree mortality can occur years after fire events, but this has received little attention compared to the immediate tree loss during a fire. We overlapped forest cover loss data with burn severity maps in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and quantified the total and delayed forest canopy loss after fires. We found that wildfires resulted in total canopy loss fraction (CLF) of 84%, 53%, and 22% within 3 years in areas burned at high, moderate, and low severity, respectively. The delayed canopy loss accounted for approximately 1/3, 1/2, and 2/3 of the total canopy loss for high, moderate, and low severity burns. Delayed canopy loss was greater in moist and cool areas than in dry and warm areas, likely because tree species in wetter environments were less adapted to survive when fires did occur. Across all forests, delayed CLF doubled as temperature increased from the climatological mean to a hot anomaly and tripled as vapor pressure deficit increased from a wet anomaly to a dry anomaly. Fire impacts on forest ecosystems are likely to intensify under future climate scenarios as wildfires expand into areas that historically experienced infrequent fires. The impacts can also be exacerbated by more frequent compound extreme events, such as droughts, heatwaves, and fires. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted forest management strategies, particularly in mesic forests, to mitigate future fire impacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006373","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144611952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What Factors Drove the Global Cropland Expansion Into Highlands? 是什么因素促使全球耕地向高地扩张?
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005337
Wanxu Chen, Yanghaoyue Yuan, Tianci Gu, Haitao Ma, Jie Zeng
{"title":"What Factors Drove the Global Cropland Expansion Into Highlands?","authors":"Wanxu Chen,&nbsp;Yanghaoyue Yuan,&nbsp;Tianci Gu,&nbsp;Haitao Ma,&nbsp;Jie Zeng","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005337","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005337","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The escalating demand for agricultural land, along with limited availability in lowland areas, has driven cropland expansion into highlands (CEIH), potentially resulting in land degradation, habitat degradation, and a decline in food production. However, few studies thoroughly investigated the distribution and driving factors of global CEIH, even though a considerable amount of cropland has extended to the highlands over recent decades. To investigate CEIH, we employed spatial statistics, elevation spectrum analysis, and terrain gradient methods to quantify spatio-temporal patterns and elevation changes in global cropland distribution from 1995 to 2020. We then explored the key driving factors of CEIH at different scales using spatial regression models and multiscale geo-weighted regression model. The results revealed that global average cropland elevation increased from 422.782 m in 1995 to 427.321 m in 2020, representing a 4.539 m net increase. CEIH was reflected on both global and continental scales in all continents except South America during the study period. Furthermore, CEIH showed an intense agglomeration pattern. Human activities and cropland reclamation rate emerged as the primary underlying driving factors of CEIH. The encroachment of development on lowland agricultural areas forced CEIH, which was the core of this phenomenon. Vertical cropland expansion was predominantly concentrated in ecologically vulnerable highlands and ecological transition zones. The driving factors of CEIH exhibited spatial and multiscale heterogeneity. These findings provided a scientific basis for formulating targeted cropland conservation policies by highlighting the differences in cropland management performance across various levels of government globally.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005337","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144606452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Anthropocene and Its Contenders: Cross-Disciplinary Tools for a Nationally Divided Humanity 人类世及其竞争者:国家分裂人类的跨学科工具
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004918
Daniele Conversi
{"title":"The Anthropocene and Its Contenders: Cross-Disciplinary Tools for a Nationally Divided Humanity","authors":"Daniele Conversi","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004918","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004918","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Building on two essays previously published in <i>Earth's Future</i>, this Commentary aims to further and expand the debate by considering two indirectly correlated aspects: <i>interdisciplinarity</i> and <i>internationalism</i>, both of which can find a powerful ally in the notion of the Anthropocene. The two essays respectively address the cross-disciplinary/trans-disciplinary reach of the Anthropocene (Zalasiewicz et al. 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ef001896) and its popular expansion and acceptance (Żuk &amp; Żuk, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef004045). The Commentary shows how the Anthropocene has produced an overarching narrative which is potentially enabling in a world divided by nationalism and where science is fractured by disciplinary boundaries. It suggests how the Anthropocene concept may be more effectively understood and used in relationship to these two dimensions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004918","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144606449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Imprints of Eddy Stirring and Trapping Effects on Global Salt Transport 涡旋搅拌和捕集效应对全球盐运输的影响
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005330
Yikai Yang, Lili Zeng, Qiang Wang, Rui Shi, Peng Xiu
{"title":"Imprints of Eddy Stirring and Trapping Effects on Global Salt Transport","authors":"Yikai Yang,&nbsp;Lili Zeng,&nbsp;Qiang Wang,&nbsp;Rui Shi,&nbsp;Peng Xiu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005330","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Oceanic eddy-induced salt transport is highly important for the global water cycle and climate change. Previous studies have focused on single horizontal eddy-induced transport effect or regional studies, yet assessments of the impact of stirring and trapping effects on salt transport at the global scale are incomplete. Here, we show that upper ocean salt transport due to eddy stirring and trapping effects displays a strong zonal dependence on the global ocean, with the former playing a dominant role over the analysis period. The zonal accumulation of meridional salt transport reaches a maximum of −4.52 psu·Sv (×10<sup>6</sup> psu·m<sup>3</sup>·s<sup>−1</sup>) in the Southern Ocean. Equivalent freshwater transport is poleward in the near-equator region and equatorward in the near-polar region, consequently causing freshwater to converge in the middle of the subtropical gyre. The divergence of salt transport further suggests that eddies transport salt out of the maximum sea surface salinity regions. Strong seasonal variations in salt transport occur mainly in eddy-enriched regions such as the western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean. The relative contribution of eddy stirring and trapping effects to oceanic meridional salt transport can reach approximately 23.6%. These results highlight the importance of eddy effects in the global oceanic salt budget.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005330","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144589683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stationarity Assumptions in Streamflow Sensitivity to Precipitation May Bias Future Projections 径流对降水敏感性的平稳性假设可能会影响未来的预估
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-08 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006188
Bailey J. Anderson, Louise J. Slater, Jessica Rapson, Manuela I. Brunner, Simon J. Dadson, Jiabo Yin, Marcus Buechel
{"title":"Stationarity Assumptions in Streamflow Sensitivity to Precipitation May Bias Future Projections","authors":"Bailey J. Anderson,&nbsp;Louise J. Slater,&nbsp;Jessica Rapson,&nbsp;Manuela I. Brunner,&nbsp;Simon J. Dadson,&nbsp;Jiabo Yin,&nbsp;Marcus Buechel","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006188","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006188","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Streamflow elasticity to precipitation is a metric which is used to estimate how responsive rivers are to changes in precipitation. It is commonly used to anticipate future impacts of climate change on streamflow and is assumed to be constant in time, despite evidence that this relationship varies with climatological and landscape changes. To assess the need for a more flexible definition, we present a large-sample non-stationary regional regression approach to estimate long-term trends and variability in interannual streamflow elasticity to precipitation in the USA. We find that elasticity is highly variable in water-limited catchments year-to-year, indicating high sensitivity to climate variability in arid regions. Statistically significant long-term trends in elasticity exist in some regions, but trend magnitude is generally small. We demonstrate that a single average estimate of elasticity may be a poor indicator of streamflow sensitivity to climate change. Consideration of the variability of response is essential for elasticity to be a useful hydrologic signature.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006188","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144582263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Coupling Coordination Framework for Assessing Balanced Development Between Potential Ecosystem Services and Human Activities 生态系统潜在服务与人类活动平衡发展的耦合协调框架
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006243
Yixin Fang, Fanhao Meng, Min Luo, Chula Sa, Yuhai Bao, Jun Lei
{"title":"Coupling Coordination Framework for Assessing Balanced Development Between Potential Ecosystem Services and Human Activities","authors":"Yixin Fang,&nbsp;Fanhao Meng,&nbsp;Min Luo,&nbsp;Chula Sa,&nbsp;Yuhai Bao,&nbsp;Jun Lei","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006243","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006243","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Sustainable development between human activities and the natural environment remains a challenge, particularly in China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Inner Mongolia (JJJM) region, where rapid socioeconomic development and the need for ecological barrier protection impose dual pressures. To address these challenges, the Coupling Coordination Degree framework is employed to analyze the relationship between human activities and the environment. An adjusted ecosystem services (ES) matrix is used to calculate the supply, demand, and balance of potential ES and develops a human activity intensity index (HAII) that considers multiple factors, such as nighttime light and grazing intensity. By analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution of ES supply, demand, balance, HAII, and coordination degree from 2000 to 2020, this research provides insights into the evolution of coordinated human-environmental development. Results indicate ES supply increased, but ES balance first improved and then declined. Meanwhile, HAII increased continuously, a bivariate local Moran's I test (−0.23) reveals a significant trade-off between ES balance and HAII. Coupling Coordination analysis shows that over 86% of the region has a coordination degree below 0.7, indicating Barely Balanced Development. The most significant drop occurred in Tianjin, suggesting that intensified human activities may have contributed to the declining ES balance. Forests and grasslands account for over 88% of the cumulative contribution to ES balance. Scientific restoration of grasslands and maintenance of forest ecosystems are crucial for sustaining the human-environment system in the JJJM region. This study reveals ES balance–human activity coordination dynamics, supporting differentiated ecological compensation and an integrated ecological governance system for urban-rural coordination.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006243","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144573448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Future Scenarios of Global Fisheries and Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement Under Socio-Economic and Climate Pathways 社会经济和气候路径下全球渔业和海洋碱度增强的未来情景
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005478
Hans Sloterdijk, Caroline Grünhagen, Rudi Voss, Patricia Grasse, David P. Keller, Linda Kleemann, Lotta Clara Kluger, Kira Lancker, Wilfried Rickels, Ulf Riebesell, Renato Salvatteci, Andreas Oschlies, Jörn O. Schmidt, Natascha Oppelt, Katrin Rehdanz, Marie-Catherine Riekhof
{"title":"Future Scenarios of Global Fisheries and Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement Under Socio-Economic and Climate Pathways","authors":"Hans Sloterdijk,&nbsp;Caroline Grünhagen,&nbsp;Rudi Voss,&nbsp;Patricia Grasse,&nbsp;David P. Keller,&nbsp;Linda Kleemann,&nbsp;Lotta Clara Kluger,&nbsp;Kira Lancker,&nbsp;Wilfried Rickels,&nbsp;Ulf Riebesell,&nbsp;Renato Salvatteci,&nbsp;Andreas Oschlies,&nbsp;Jörn O. Schmidt,&nbsp;Natascha Oppelt,&nbsp;Katrin Rehdanz,&nbsp;Marie-Catherine Riekhof","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005478","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Achieving global climate goals while ensuring food security in a changing climate presents significant challenges, particularly when relying solely on land-based solutions. Covering over 70% of the Earth's surface, the ocean remains an underutilized resource for climate mitigation. Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is one such strategy, designed to strengthen the ocean's natural carbon sink, reduce atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>, and mitigate ocean acidification. However, its implications for fisheries, critical for food security and livelihoods, remain uncertain. This study examines the interplay between global fisheries, OAE, and different future socioeconomic and climatic conditions, using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways framework. We explore how global fisheries and OAE could evolve under three combined scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (sustainability-focused), SSP3-7.0 (regional rivalry), and SSP5-8.5 (high fossil fuel dependency). By integrating ecological, economic, societal, and technological perspectives, we develop scenario narratives and quantify key bio-economic parameters, including technological progress, fishing costs, fisheries management, marine aquaculture, and ecosystem carrying capacity. High-emission (SSP5-8.5) and fragmented development (SSP3-7.0) scenarios present significant barriers to the coexistence of OAE and fisheries, whereas sustainability-focused pathways (SSP1-2.6) offer the most favorable conditions for their alignment. Successfully integrating OAE with fisheries management will likely depend on technological advancements, international cooperation, and socio-economic developments. These scenarios are aligned with those used in model-based scenario studies conducted under the frameworks of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), providing a shared foundation for future work.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005478","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144573447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Decomposing the Effects of Changes in Catchment Characteristics on Runoff Into Chain Transmission Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities Using an Improved Budyko Framework 基于改进的Budyko框架将流域特征变化对径流的影响分解为气候变化和人类活动的连锁传递效应
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006041
Kun Peng, Yongyong Zhang, Qiuhong Tang, Yongqiang Zhang, Zhanling Li, Guoqing Wang, Can Cao
{"title":"Decomposing the Effects of Changes in Catchment Characteristics on Runoff Into Chain Transmission Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities Using an Improved Budyko Framework","authors":"Kun Peng,&nbsp;Yongyong Zhang,&nbsp;Qiuhong Tang,&nbsp;Yongqiang Zhang,&nbsp;Zhanling Li,&nbsp;Guoqing Wang,&nbsp;Can Cao","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006041","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Effect of catchment characteristics (e.g., land use/land cover changes) is increasingly accepted as the main cause of runoff changes, besides direct effects of climate change and human activities. However, previous studies usually attributed this effect to human activities, and ignored the effect of climate changes, namely chain transmission effects via catchment characteristic alterations. This study proposes a novel assessment approach of runoff change to disentangle both direct and chain transmission effects by adopting nonlinear relationships between catchment characteristic parameters and multiple impact factors into the Budyko framework. Eight catchments in the arid and semi-arid, semi-humid, and humid climatic zones are selected as our study area. Results show that runoff in most catchments decreases, while catchment characteristic parameters increase, with slopes of −2.44 to 3.79 mm/year and −0.003 to 0.017/year, respectively. It indicates that more precipitation evaporates than that contributing to runoff due to the catchment characteristic alterations. These changes are the most significant in the semi-humid zone, followed by those in the arid and semi-arid zone. Annual temperature and precipitation, gross domestic product, industrial water use, and population are the main impact factors. The contributions of human activities to runoff changes are usually the largest (i.e., −62.9% to 72.0%), followed by the direct effects of climate change (i.e., −32.6% to 88.0%). The chain transmission effects of climate change are also nonnegligible, with the contributions of −38.3% to 8.2%, particularly in the semi-humid zone. Our study improves the traditional Budyko-based framework for attributing runoff changes and provides scientific support for understanding hydrological cycle change mechanisms in climate-sensitive areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006041","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144564131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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