Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Changes in Compound Extreme Events and Their Impacts on Cropland Productivity in China, 1985–2019","authors":"Zejin Liu,&nbsp;Limin Jiao,&nbsp;Xihong Lian","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005038","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While the influence of compound extreme events is gaining attention with advancing extreme climate research, the variations in their impacts on regional crop production require further exploration. Here, we primarily analyze the changes in compound hot-dry events and compound hot-wet events in China from 1985 to 2019, based on meteorological observations from 686 stations. Then, their contributions to losses in cropland net primary productivity (CNPP) are identified using the extreme gradient boosting and Shapley additive explanations models. Results indicate that compound extreme events have become increasingly frequent, persistent, and severe over the past 35 years. With the increasing risks of compound extreme events, greater CNPP losses are observed in the northern regions compared to the southern regions. Throughout the growing season, CNPP losses caused by compound extreme events initially increase, peak in summer, and then gradually decrease. CNPP losses in China are primarily influenced by compound hot-dry events. From north to south, the events dominating CNPP losses shift sequentially from compound daytime hot and dry events to compound day-night hot and dry events, and finally to compound nighttime hot and dry events. This study explores the threats posed by compound extreme events to regional crop production and provides new insights into extreme climate risks in China, supporting climate-adaptive agricultural development.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005038","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Historical and Projected Cropland Impacts of Heatwaves in Central Asia Under Climate Change","authors":"Tao Li,&nbsp;Fengjiao Song,&nbsp;Jiayu Bao,&nbsp;Philippe De Maeyer,&nbsp;Ye Yuan,&nbsp;Xiaoran Huang,&nbsp;Tao Yu,&nbsp;Naibi Sulei,&nbsp;Anming Bao,&nbsp;Peter Goethals","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005595","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005595","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Central Asia (CA) is a critical agricultural region, contributing significantly to global food and cotton production, yet it faces increasing threats from extreme heatwaves (HWs) due to global warming. Despite this, the specific impacts of historical and future HWs on CA's cropland remain underexplored. Here, using five bias-corrected global circulation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3b (ISIMIP3b), we present a detailed analysis of CA's cropland exposure to HWs from historical periods (1995–2014) and under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) for 2021–2100. Compared to historical levels, we find that exposure to heatwave frequency could increase by 199% by 2081–2100 under SSP126, while exposure to heatwave duration could rise by as much as 852% and 1143% under SSP370 and SSP585, respectively. Northern Kazakhstan emerges as particularly vulnerable, with the highest exposure levels across scenarios. Interactive effects between climate shifts and land-use changes are the dominant contributors, accounting for over 50% of total exposure in each scenario. These findings highlight CA's vulnerability to HWs under various climate pathways, emphasizing the urgency of targeted adaptation strategies to protect regional agricultural resilience and, by extension, global food security.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005595","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future Soil Erosion Risk in China: Differences in Erosion Driven by General and Extreme Precipitation Under Climate Change","authors":"Changyan Yin,&nbsp;Chenyun Bai,&nbsp;Yuanjun Zhu,&nbsp;Ming'an Shao,&nbsp;Xiaoyang Han,&nbsp;Jiangbo Qiao","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005390","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005390","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Soil erosion status is a comprehensive indicator reflecting the quality and stability of ecosystems. Soil erosion changes in China are becoming more unclear due to climate change and intensified human activity. Within the framework of climate change, this study treats the rainfall erosion factor as a dynamic factor and examines three types of contrasting precipitation—general, heavy, and extreme—through integrates the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation and Geographic Information Systems to reveal differences in water erosion driven by varying intensities of precipitation. The results reveal that over 63% of China's land area has experienced soil erosion during the historical period (1980–2022), with slight erosion being the most common. Severe water erosion is predominantly found in the Southwest Basin, the Yangtze River Basin, and the Yellow River basin. The multi-year average soil erosion rate in China is estimated at 2.46 t·ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, with R95P and R99P contributing 26.50% and 7.71%, respectively. Future projections (2023–2100) indicate that soil erosion driven by PRCPTOT, R95P, and R99P could increase by 22%–91% under SSP5-RCP8.5 and SSP2-RCP4.5 scenarios. Overall, climate change has a limited effect on the spatial pattern of soil erosion in China, mainly influencing the intensity and extent of water erosion and adversely impacting most regions. Extreme precipitation is more sensitive to climate change, making future erosion risks associated with it a critical concern. These findings can guide decision-makers and resource managers in regional planning to enhance resilience to climate change and secure water and food resources.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005390","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temporal and Phenological Modulation of the Impact of Increasing Drought Conditions on Vegetation Growth in a Humid Big River Basin: Insights From Global Comparisons","authors":"Junlan Xiao,&nbsp;César Terrer,&nbsp;Pierre Gentine,&nbsp;Ryunosuke Tateno,&nbsp;Lei Fan,&nbsp;Mingguo Ma,&nbsp;Yuemin Yue,&nbsp;Wenping Yuan,&nbsp;Josep Peñuelas,&nbsp;Weiyu Shi","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005720","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005720","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As the upward trend in extreme drought continues with climate change, terrestrial vegetation growth is assumed to become largely reduced. We investigated anomalies of remote sensing vegetation indexes under droughts across the upper Yangtze River (UYR) basin, characterized as humid but having experienced frequent seasonal droughts from 2000. Then we compared global big river basins by focusing on the Nile and Congo basins, which have similar characteristics to the UYR. The vegetation across the UYR was affected by water stress in recent years but shows reduced sensitivity to drought. The compound effect of drought timing and phenology largely drives the response. Results show that late-season droughts generally have a greater impact on vegetation growth compared to early season droughts, with alpine grasslands showing particularly pronounced responses due to their ecological features such as shallow root depth and aggressive hydrological behavior. The Nile basin, similar to the UYR basin, exhibits pronounced late-season vegetation vulnerability, highlighting shared patterns of drought impact across heterogeneous landscapes. In contrast, the tropical rainforests in the Congo basin demonstrate greater resilience, supported by complex root systems, dense canopies, and low cloud cover that reduces evaporation. This study underscores the importance of considering regional ecological characteristics, drought timing, and phenological stages in assessing vegetation responses to drought. These insights are critical for predicting and managing ecosystem resilience under changing climatic conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005720","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World Fisheries","authors":"O. Maury,&nbsp;D. P. Tittensor,&nbsp;T. D. Eddy,&nbsp;E. H. Allison,&nbsp;T. Bahri,&nbsp;N. Barrier,&nbsp;L. Campling,&nbsp;W. W. L. Cheung,&nbsp;K. Frieler,&nbsp;E. A. Fulton,&nbsp;P. Guillotreau,&nbsp;R. F. Heneghan,&nbsp;V. W. Y. Lam,&nbsp;D. Leclère,&nbsp;M. Lengaigne,&nbsp;H. Lotze-Campen,&nbsp;C. Novaglio,&nbsp;K. Ortega-Cisneros,&nbsp;J. Rault,&nbsp;J. Schewe,&nbsp;Y.-J. Shin,&nbsp;H. Sloterdijk,&nbsp;D. Squires,&nbsp;U. R. Sumaila,&nbsp;A. N. Tidd,&nbsp;B. van Ruijven,&nbsp;J. Blanchard","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004851","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004851","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) has dedicated a decade to unraveling the future impacts of climate change on marine animal biomass. FishMIP is now preparing a new simulation protocol to assess the combined effects of both climate and socio-economic changes on marine fisheries and ecosystems. This protocol will be based on the Ocean System Pathways (OSPs), a new set of socio-economic scenarios derived from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) widely used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The OSPs extend the SSPs to the economic, governance, management and socio-cultural contexts of large pelagic, small pelagic, benthic-demersal and emerging fisheries, as well as mariculture. Comprising qualitative storylines, quantitative model driver pathways and a “plug-in-model” framework, the OSPs will enable a heterogeneous suite of ecosystem models to simulate fisheries dynamics in a standardised way. This paper introduces this OSP framework and the simulation protocol that FishMIP will implement to explore future ocean social-ecological systems holistically, with a focus on critical issues such as climate justice, global food security, equitable fisheries, aquaculture development, fisheries management, and biodiversity conservation. Ultimately, the OSP framework is tailored to contribute to the synthesis work of the IPCC. It also aims to inform ongoing policy processes within the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Finally, it seeks to support the synthesis work of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), with a particular focus on studying pathways relevant for the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004851","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Targeted Synergistic Priorities for Conserving Biodiversity, Carbon, and Water on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Chongchong Ye,&nbsp;Shuai Wang,&nbsp;Xutong Wu,&nbsp;Tien Ming Lee,&nbsp;Yi Wang,&nbsp;Fangli Wei,&nbsp;Yanxu Liu,&nbsp;Bin Sun,&nbsp;Li Yang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004802","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004802","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) highlights developing effective targets to halt and reverse the biodiversity and ecosystem services crisis. Although biodiversity and ecosystem services are tightly interlinked and interact in complex ways, a uniform global or national target has long ignored their interdependencies and uneven distribution to guide region- or ecoregion-specific planning. Here, we use a flexible and stepwise approach, incorporating high conservation values of biodiversity, carbon and water and their complex interactions, to identify three targeted priority areas at regional and ecological jurisdictions on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). We find that 49% of the targeted priority areas could effectively protect about 60% of biodiversity, carbon, and water at the ecoregion scale. However, at the regional scale, 48% of the targeted priority areas have the potential to conserve up to 70% of biodiversity, carbon and water. Although the QTP has achieved the target three of the Kunming-Montreal GBF (i.e., to protect 30% of areas), more than 75% and 70% of priority areas remain unprotected at the regional and ecoregion scales, respectively. More importantly, over 55% of the unprotected priority areas at the regional scale are under moderate to high human pressure. Our spatially explicit insights demonstrate the importance of expanding existing protected areas on the QTP, while highlighting the potential of targeted conservation initiatives at the subnational level to ensure the Kunming-Montreal GBF in a more efficient manner.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004802","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Thirstwaves: Prolonged Periods of Agricultural Exposure to Extreme Atmospheric Evaporative Demand for Water","authors":"M. S. Kukal,&nbsp;M. Hobbins","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004870","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004870","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global atmospheric evaporative demand has increased, impacting agricultural productivity and water use. Traditionally, trend assessments have been limited to total evaporative demand, overlooking shifts in daily extremes, which are meaningful for agrohydrological outcomes yet largely unknown. Here, using a fully physical metric of evaporative demand, that is, standardized short crop reference evapotranspiration, we introduce the concept of thirstwaves—prolonged periods of extremely high evaporative demand—and analyze their characteristics during 1981–2021 growing seasons for the conterminous US. Findings show that long-term mean spatial patterns demonstrated by thirstwave characteristics do not follow that of total or mean evaporative demand. Weighted for cropland area harvested, thirstwave intensity, duration, and frequency have increased by 0.06 mm d⁻¹ decade⁻¹, 0.10 days decade⁻¹, and 0.39 events decade⁻¹, respectively during 1981–2021. Statistically significant trends appear across 17%, 7%, and 23% of cropland area for intensity, frequency, and duration. Not only have thirstwaves increased in severity, but the likelihood of no thirstwaves occurring during the growing season has significantly decreased. Our work proposes a novel metric to describe periods of extremely elevated evaporative demand and presents a systematic analysis of such conditions historically for US croplands.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004870","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Warming Has Imbalance Impact on Soil Nitrogen Transformation Rates","authors":"Di Zhao,&nbsp;Jie Qiu,&nbsp;Zhen Fan,&nbsp;Chaopu Ti,&nbsp;Zelin Huang,&nbsp;Xiaoyuan Yan,&nbsp;Yongqiu Xia","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004756","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004756","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global warming is projected to significantly influence soil nitrogen (N) transformations, yet a comprehensive understanding of the spatial distribution of these effects and the underlying driving factors at a large scale remains limited. This study employs a Random Forest model to develop nonlinear temperature sensitivity (<i>Q</i>₁₀) models for soil nitrogen mineralization (N_min), nitrification (N_nit), and denitrification (N_de) based on a data set comprising 1,131 records from across China. Our results revealed variations in <i>Q</i>₁₀ values across different N transformation processes and ecosystem types, with an average of 1.96 for N_min, 1.90 for N_nit, and 2.19 for N_de. Higher <i>Q</i>₁₀ values (&gt;2) for N transformation rates were observed in the Northern and Western China, which exhibited a geographical spatial pattern that changed with longitude, latitude, and altitude. Soil substrate availability, N input, soil pH and climatic variables accounted for most of the variation in <i>Q</i>₁₀ among diverse ecosystem types and regions on a large scale. In projected future warming scenarios, it is expected that N transformation rates could increase by between 0.001 and 1.87 times under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 from 2040 to 2100, compared to 2030. These findings deepen our understanding of the large-scale spatial variations and controlling factors of N transformation rates in response to global warming, providing a robust foundation for more informed ecosystem management and environmental policy decisions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004756","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Process Synchrony a Key Control of Resilience in a Subarctic Freshwater System","authors":"C. Spence,&nbsp;J. M. Galloway,&nbsp;N. Hedstrom,&nbsp;S. V. Kokelj,&nbsp;S. A. Kokelj,&nbsp;P. Muise,&nbsp;B. W. Newton,&nbsp;R. T. Patterson,&nbsp;M. F. J. Pisaric,&nbsp;G. T. Swindles","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005518","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005518","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate-induced changes in streamflow and biogeochemistry are occurring across the northern circumpolar region but several key unknowns include (a) the mechanisms responsible among landscapes and permafrost conditions, (b) the resilience and precariousness of hydrological and biogeochemical regimes. Even though it is among the largest physio-climatic regions of the northern circumpolar, these knowledge gaps are acute in the Taiga Shield. This research aimed to determine if hydrology and biogeochemistry regimes of the Taiga Shield have been resilient to recent climate warming. We apply a recently developed framework of hydrological resilience that shows the first 20 years of the 21st century were the warmest and wettest of the previous 300 years. These conditions altered the catchment such that &gt;50% of the water year streamflow now occurs during winter, shifting the catchment from a nival to a cold season pluvial hydrological regime. This regime shift has significantly changed the fraction of inorganic nitrogen export, but insufficiently to shift the biogeochemical regime. Sustained multi-year physical process synchronization was the cause of these changes. This behavior is not well simulated by existing Earth system models. The tipping point in local mean annual air temperatures was crossed near the turn of the century well below the warming threshold of the Paris Accord. A one-size-fits-all approach to mitigation targets is not effective at preventing all shifts in Earth systems. This is important to consider as regime changes in small hydrological systems have the potential to trigger cascading effects in the larger catchments to which they contribute.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005518","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties","authors":"Kieran Murphy,&nbsp;Denisse Fierro-Arcos,&nbsp;Tyler Rohr,&nbsp;David Green,&nbsp;Camilla Novaglio,&nbsp;Katherine Baker,&nbsp;Kelly Ortega-Cisneros,&nbsp;Tyler D. Eddy,&nbsp;Cheryl S. Harrison,&nbsp;Simeon L. Hill,&nbsp;Patrick Eskuche-Keith,&nbsp;Camila Cataldo-Mendez,&nbsp;Colleen M. Petrik,&nbsp;Matthew Pinkerton,&nbsp;Paul Spence,&nbsp;Ilaria Stollberg,&nbsp;Roshni C. Subramaniam,&nbsp;Rowan Trebilco,&nbsp;Vivitskaia Tulloch,&nbsp;Juliano Palacios-Abrantes,&nbsp;Sophie Bestley,&nbsp;Daniele Bianchi,&nbsp;Philip Boyd,&nbsp;Pearse J. Buchanan,&nbsp;Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz,&nbsp;Marta Coll,&nbsp;Stuart Corney,&nbsp;Samik Datta,&nbsp;Jason D. Everett,&nbsp;Romain Forestier,&nbsp;Elizabeth A. Fulton,&nbsp;Vianney Guibourd de Luzinais,&nbsp;Ryan Heneghan,&nbsp;Julia G. Mason,&nbsp;Olivier Maury,&nbsp;Clive R. McMahon,&nbsp;Eugene Murphy,&nbsp;Anthony J. Richardson,&nbsp;Derek P. Tittensor,&nbsp;Scott Spillias,&nbsp;Jeroen Steenbeek,&nbsp;Devi Veytia,&nbsp;Julia Blanchard","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004849","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004849","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected changes in total consumer biomass from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain future for the Southern Ocean, indicating the need for a region-specific ensemble. A large source of model uncertainty originates from the Earth system models used to force FishMIP models, particularly future changes to lower trophic level biomass and sea-ice coverage. To build confidence in regional MEMs as ecosystem-based management tools in a changing climate that can better account for uncertainty, we propose the development of a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing to the FishMIP 2.0 regional model intercomparison initiative. One of the challenges hampering progress of regional MEM ensembles is achieving the balance of global standardised inputs with regional relevance. As a first step, we design a SOMEME simulation protocol, that builds on and extends the existing FishMIP framework, in stages that include: detailed skill assessment of climate forcing variables for Southern Ocean regions, extension of fishing forcing data to include whaling, and new simulations that assess ecological links to sea-ice processes in an ensemble of candidate regional MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments of urgently needed climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004849","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}