Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-06-11DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006486
Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri, Wen Zhou, Christopher E. Ndehedehe, Kazeem A. Ishola, Patrick Laux, Akintomide A. Akinsanola, Mame D. B. Dieng, Xuan Wang
{"title":"Global Heatwaves Dynamics Under Climate Change Scenarios: Multidimensional Drivers and Cascading Impacts","authors":"Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri, Wen Zhou, Christopher E. Ndehedehe, Kazeem A. Ishola, Patrick Laux, Akintomide A. Akinsanola, Mame D. B. Dieng, Xuan Wang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006486","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006486","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Heatwaves are intensifying globally due to climate change. However, the contributions of large-scale atmospheric processes and land-atmosphere interactions to heatwave dynamics and their cascading impacts on water resources and human exposure are not fully understood. This study investigates heatwave frequency (HWF) across 50 global regions, spanning historical (1979–2014) and future periods (2025–2060 and 2065–2100) under SSP 370 (regional rivalry) and SSP 585 (fossil-fuel development) scenarios. Using bias-corrected general circulation model simulations and reconstructed terrestrial water storage (TWS) data, we quantify the contributions of atmospheric processes to HWF modulation and assess the impacts of HWF and temperature changes on water storage deficits using TWS drought severity index (TWS-DSI) and standardized temperature index (STI). We show that Western Central Asia exhibits moisture divergence driven by significant positive thermodynamic effects, which correlates with increased HWF. In West Africa, moisture flux divergence at 1,000 hPa accounts for 45% of HWF variability, while relative humidity at 300 hPa explains 58% of HWF changes in East Asia. HWF and STI strongly influence TWS-DSI, with high STI intensifying TWS deficits. Concurrent high HWF and wet conditions in Western North America are linked to atmospheric blocking and hydrological persistence, highlighting complex illative mechanisms. We project population exposure to HWF to rise tenfold globally by 2100, with regions such as South Asia experiencing over 100% increases due to combined climate and population effects. These findings emphasize the need for tailored adaptation strategies to mitigate heatwave impacts and ensure resilience in a warming world.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006486","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144264344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-06-09DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005916
Srija Chakraborty, Olivia Alexander, Noah Kittner, Zhuosen Wang
{"title":"A Global Stocktake on Electricity Access and Gaps From NASA Black Marble Nighttime Lights","authors":"Srija Chakraborty, Olivia Alexander, Noah Kittner, Zhuosen Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005916","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005916","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Electricity is a basic human necessity. We are highly reliant on continuous access to electricity for our health, well-being, and it remains essential for critical infrastructure, industries, and human development. Yet, there remains a gap in populations with access to electricity across the globe. Mapping where gaps in electrification are currently is vital to estimate the unmet energy demand to ensure universal access to electricity and modern fuels. To be informative, mapping of electricity access gaps is needed on a global scale but with spatially-disaggregated granularity and it is non-trivial to derive this spatially-explicit data globally. Satellite observations have the unique vantage point of acquiring global observations with frequent updates and are collected in a standardized manner. Specifically, NASA Black Marble is the only openly available data set that derives corrected, global, daily nighttime lights (NTL) that are ideal for analyzing settlement pixels and electrification with its decade-long records. We derive global maps of electrification at 1 km resolution using NTL time-series from 2012 to 2022 and fill in the existing global knowledge gap using improved NTL retrievals from this corrected data set. We evaluate our analyses with global surveys at the national scale and observe high agreement, derive quality flags, and share the results as an open-access data set. We analyze our data set to examine the areas with highest access gaps and discuss the potential of the data set to inform energy transition plans and electricity demand estimations for integrated assessment models that jointly evaluate the effects of climate change and energy transitions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005916","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144244757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-06-07DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005555
Veronika J. Redensek, Sonali McDermid, Deepti Singh, Geeta Persad
{"title":"Nonlinear Response of the Surface Energy Balance to Changes in Anthropogenic Aerosols and Irrigation Over South Asia","authors":"Veronika J. Redensek, Sonali McDermid, Deepti Singh, Geeta Persad","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005555","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005555","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The regional climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosol emissions and irrigation growth in South Asia have conventionally been studied separately. These forcings have overlapping influences on surface temperature and atmospheric stability, but detection and attribution simulations typically quantify the impact of individual time-evolving climate forcings, which does not account for nonlinear interactions between forcings or their impacts, when forcings evolve in tandem. Using transient simulations in GISS ModelE 2.1-G, we assess the summertime surface energy balance in five different sub-regions of South Asia by comparing the linear addition of anthropogenic aerosol and land use single-forcing historical simulations with novel dual-forcing simulations. We find that the combination of aerosol emissions and irrigation changes between preindustrial and present-day increases aerosol hydration and cloud cover more strongly than does the linear addition of the individual forcings. This results in a strong nonlinear decrease in downwelling shortwave radiation, which drives subsequent nonlinearities in the surface energy balance through a relative suppression of energy availability at the surface. While aerosols and irrigation are each credited with suppressing monsoon winds and delaying onset, combined simulations of both forcings suggest that surface pressure is nonlinearly reduced over the northern Indian Subcontinent. This results in a net increase in 850 mb winds from the Bay of Bengal toward northwest India and Pakistan in combined simulations, suppressing the weakening of summer monsoon winds from single forcing results. The nonlinearities identified in our study suggest that the current framework for detection and attribution may not adequately account for potential interactions between forcings.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005555","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144237299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-06-06DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006129
Ziyang Zhu, Meiqing Feng, Yaning Chen, Weili Duan, Zhi Li, Wim Cornelis, Philippe De Maeyer
{"title":"Absolute Environmental Sustainability Assessment of the Arid Central Asia by Downscaling Planetary Boundaries","authors":"Ziyang Zhu, Meiqing Feng, Yaning Chen, Weili Duan, Zhi Li, Wim Cornelis, Philippe De Maeyer","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006129","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Assessing absolute environmental sustainability (AES) is essential to ensure that human activities remain within a safe operating space. However, it remains unclear whether the planetary boundaries (PBs) have been breached in Central Asia. This study analyzed environmental pressures in arid Central Asia from 2000 to 2020 by downscaling PBs and evaluating AES ratios. Environmental distance was applied to identify environmental surpluses or overshoots, while an integrated environmental sustainability index (IESI) was to identify priority management areas. Domestic consumption dominated the environmental footprint during 2000–2020. Besides land footprint, water, carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and human appropriation of net primary production to Central Asia were mainly from Europe and Asia. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were identified as IESI level III, becoming priority management areas for sustainable development. Improving resource utilization efficiency and strengthening trade cooperation can strengthen the PBs of arid Central Asia and promote sustainable environmental development.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006129","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144219981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-06-06DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005298
Jenna Behrendt, Steven J. Smith, Sha Yu, Shiqi Chen, Haiwen Zhang, Mengye Zhu, Jared Williams, Xinzhao Cheng, Anom Ashok Dule, Wenli Li, Ryna Cui, Nate Hultman
{"title":"United States and China Anthropogenic Methane Emissions: A Review of Uncertainties and Collaborative Opportunities","authors":"Jenna Behrendt, Steven J. Smith, Sha Yu, Shiqi Chen, Haiwen Zhang, Mengye Zhu, Jared Williams, Xinzhao Cheng, Anom Ashok Dule, Wenli Li, Ryna Cui, Nate Hultman","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005298","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005298","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Methane emissions have attracted substantial attention internationally. The U.S. and China, as two of the largest global methane emitters, play a particularly important role in determining global methane emission trends and have recently expressed intentions through joint statements to collaborate on key methane-related work. Current methane emission estimates are highly uncertain, given that methane emission factors (i.e., the emissions intensity of different activities) are highly dependent on local conditions. This analysis evaluated around 50 estimates of anthropogenic methane emissions in the U.S. and China across all major sectors to identify areas of uncertainty and highlight opportunities for cross-country collaboration. Shared sources of emissions with large variation in estimates and limited sector and region-specific analyses include waste and livestock emissions, as well as abandoned fossil production sites (coal mines and oil wells), which present opportunities for knowledge sharing and joint leadership. Key areas for collaboration include improving data collection, monitoring, and availability to develop more detailed emission factors that take into account local conditions and temporal sources of emissions. A collaborative approach to developing a transparent, multi-scale emissions inventory and evaluation processes that integrate multiple methodologies into national emissions estimates would improve accuracy of emissions estimates and better inform mitigation strategies and policy discussions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005298","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144232275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-06-06DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005189
Caitlin G. Jones-Ngo, Sara Ludwick, Mohammad Z. Al-Hamdan, Jason Vargo, Rebecca J. Schmidt, Erwan Monier, Kathryn C. Conlon
{"title":"Increasing Exposures to Compound Wildfire Smoke and Extreme Heat Hazards in California, 2011–2020","authors":"Caitlin G. Jones-Ngo, Sara Ludwick, Mohammad Z. Al-Hamdan, Jason Vargo, Rebecca J. Schmidt, Erwan Monier, Kathryn C. Conlon","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005189","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is simultaneously worsening wildfire and extreme heat events in California increasing the likelihood of exposure to compound hazards (CH). This study examines the exposure distribution of compound wildfire smoke and extreme heat in California, 2011–2020, and characterizes disproportionate population vulnerabilities. We obtained fine resolution temperature data (4-km) from GridMET and wildfire-influenced fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) estimates (3-km) from a combined metric of geostatistical modeled total PM<sub>2.5</sub> and satellite-detected wildfire smoke plumes. Estimates were aggregated to the ZIP-Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) level and population weighted. Exposure days to CH and single hazards were defined using a 2-day exposure lag window with binary indicators for wildfire smoke and extreme heat. Daily exposure counts were summed by year and over the 10 years for descriptive mapping. Ten-year exposures were characterized by community factors and differences were tested using ANOVA. Exposures to compound wildfire smoke and extreme heat varied temporally and geographically, primarily driven by wildfire smoke. On average, ZCTAs experienced 3–4 CH days annually, peaking in 2020 (9.85 days). From the early (2011–2015) to later period (2016–2020), ZCTAs experienced 2.77 more annual CH days (95% CI: 2.62, 2.92; <i>p</i> < 0.0001). The number of ZCTAs exposed annually also increased. ZCTAs with persistently higher CH days had significantly higher proportions of minority populations, lower median incomes, and more urban characteristics. Our results show increasing and unequal exposure to compound wildfire smoke and extreme heat. These risks should be considered in mitigation strategies for climate-vulnerable populations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005189","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144232280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Decoding Cropland Mask Effects on the Explanatory Power of Remote Sensing and Reanalyzed Climate Data on Yield Anomalies in Africa","authors":"Wanxue Zhu, Ting Yang, Jundong Wang, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005443","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005443","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ensuring crop yield stability is crucial for food security in Africa, where agriculture faces increasing food demand amid considerable vulnerabilities. Remote sensing and reanalyzed data products offer the potential for capturing crop growth dynamics and understanding their drivers. However, the impacts of cropland masks on relative yield anomalies (RYA) and the contributions of variables across Africa and crops remain unclear. This study explores the explanatory power of air and land surface temperatures (AT and LST), precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture on maize, millet, and sorghum RYA in Africa for 2001–2020 under seven cropland masks with distinct configurations for temporal, crop type, and water supply systems. Results indicate that (a) North Africa was particularly affected by soil moisture variation and evapotranspiration, West Africa was strongly impacted by precipitation, Central and East Africa were highly influenced by mean AT and total precipitation, and South Africa was mainly affected by high LST, mean evapotranspiration, and precipitation variation. (b) Interactions between precipitation and LST improved the explanatory power of the multiple stepwise regression model from 67% to 73%, while that of the random forest model considering complex variable interactions reached 83%. (c) Variables with high contributions were less impacted by the choice of masks. Mask configurations with broader crop coverage compensated for the limitations of temporally static masks, while crop type identification enhanced explanatory power when using year-specific and crop-specific maps. Future research should integrate process-based crop models to better understand the mechanisms behind the diverse drivers of yield at the regional scale in Africa.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005443","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144206506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-06-04DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005016
Angelo Gurgel, Kanishka B. Narayan, John Reilly, Xiang Gao, Chris Vernon, Jennifer Morris, Adam Schlosser, Sergey Paltsev
{"title":"Future Spatially Explicit Patterns of Land Transitions in the United States With Multiple Stressors","authors":"Angelo Gurgel, Kanishka B. Narayan, John Reilly, Xiang Gao, Chris Vernon, Jennifer Morris, Adam Schlosser, Sergey Paltsev","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005016","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change, income and population growth, and changing diets are major drivers of the global food system with implications for land use change. Land use in the U.S. will be affected directly by local and regional forces and indirectly through international trade. In order to investigate the effects of several potential forces on land use changes in the U.S., we advanced capabilities in representing the interactions between natural and human systems by linking a multisectoral and multiregional socio-economic model of the world economy to a model that downscales land use to a 0.5°grid scale. This enables us to translate regional projections of future land use into higher-resolution representations of time-evolving land cover (effectively spatially explicit land use transitions). We applied the framework over the U.S., with a particular interest in the Mississippi River Basin and its four sub-basins, to consider how a range of global drivers affect land use and cover in the target regions. Our results show that under scenarios of high pressure on the world food system a comparative advantage in livestock production amplifies the recent trend toward less cropland and more pastures in the U.S. Under low pressures on the world food system agricultural land is used less intensively. However, there can be key differences among the various land-use transitions at the sub- basin scale. Overall, these results highlighted the need for high resolution details to explicitly understand the implications of land use change on environmental impacts such as carbon storage, soil erosion, chemical use, hydrology, and water quality.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005016","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144206770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Global Mapping of Concurrent Hazards and Impacts Associated With Climate Extremes Under Climate Change","authors":"Gabriele Messori, Derrick Muheki, Fulden Batibeniz, Emanuele Bevacqua, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Wim Thiery","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006325","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006325","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate-related extreme events impose a heavy toll on humankind, and many will likely become more frequent in the future. The compound (joint) occurrence of different climate-related hazards and impacts can further exacerbate the detrimental consequences for society. By analyzing postprocessed data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, we provide a global mapping of future changes in the compound occurrence of six categories of hazards or impacts related to climate extremes. These are: river floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, tropical cyclone-induced winds and crop failures. In line with the existing literature, we find sharp increases in the occurrence of many individual hazards and impacts, notably heatwaves and wildfires. Under a medium-high emission scenario, many regions worldwide transition from chiefly experiencing a given category of hazard or impact in isolation to routinely experiencing compound hazard or impact occurrences. A similarly striking change is projected for the future recurrence of compound hazards or impacts, with many locations experiencing specific compound occurrences at least once a year for several years, or even decades, in a row. In the absence of effective global climate mitigation actions, we may thus witness a qualitative regime shift from a world dominated by individual climate-related hazards and impacts to one where compound occurrences become the norm.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006325","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144213814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Natural Forest Restoration Potential to Mitigate Climate Change in China","authors":"Kai Cheng, Yixuan Zhang, Yu Ren, Ang Chen, Tianyu Xiang, Zhiyong Qi, Guoran Huang, Haitao Yang, Yuling Chen, Zekun Yang, Jiachen Xu, Mengxi Chen, Guangcai Xu, Qinghua Guo","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005794","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005794","url":null,"abstract":"<p>China has achieved remarkable progress in forest conservation and restoration through extensive management efforts, including afforestation and the protection of natural forests. However, previous studies on forest carbon potential have primarily foucused on afforestation, while natural forest restoration-recognized for its superior carbon sequestration potential-remains underexplored. This study integrates historical restoration trends with future climate scenarios to quantify the spatial patterns and aboveground carbon (AGC) storage potential of natural forest restoration in China, addressing key knowledge gaps. We first examined the relationship between natural forest restoration patterns in China and climatic factors, revealing that the Mean Diurnal Range was the most positively correlated factor influencing restoration, while the Mean Temperature of the Driest Quarter had the most substantial negative impact. Based on future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), we predicted potential regions for natural forest restoration and estimated their AGC storage potential. Our findings indicated that by 2100, the area of natural forests in China could increase by 26.03 × 10<sup>4</sup> to 29.38 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>, with northeastern, southwestern, northern, and southern China showing the highest restoration potential, particularly under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, which exhibits the greatest extent of restoration. Further analysis reveals that AGC potential increases progressively with restoration efforts, reaching a maximum of 1,618.53 ± 58.36 Tg C by 2100 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. Our study highlights substantial opportunities for enhancing carbon sequestration through targeted natural restoration efforts and the integration of balanced economic growth with proactive environmental policies to promote effective natural forest restoration in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005794","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144206771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}