Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-09-22DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005328
Sadaf Mahmoudi, Hamed Moftakhari, David F. Muñoz, Soheil Radfar, William Sweet, Hamid Moradkhani
{"title":"Escalating High Tide Flooding Along the Atlantic and Gulf Coast of the United States Due To Sea Level Rise","authors":"Sadaf Mahmoudi, Hamed Moftakhari, David F. Muñoz, Soheil Radfar, William Sweet, Hamid Moradkhani","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005328","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005328","url":null,"abstract":"<p>High tide flooding (HTF) occurs when astronomically driven water levels rise above flooding thresholds in coastal areas, which can happen on sunny days. In a warming climate, sea-level rise (SLR) is expected to change the frequency of HTF via a direct non-linear change in the mean water level. In this study, we investigate the impacts of SLR on HTF along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts of the United States. We quantify the extent to which SLR is expected to exacerbate the HTF regime in the coming decades if no more flood protection is implemented. We estimate SLR at 10 km intervals using regression models, add it to numerically simulated tidal levels, and compare the results with estimated HTF thresholds. Our results provide continuous spatial coverage along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, showing a projected average rise of 0.35 ± 0.10 m in tidal levels above the mean higher high water (MHHW) by 2050, whereas Chesapeake Bay is projected to experience a greater rise of 0.39 ± 0.05 m, and Maine is expected to see a lower increase of 0.27 ± 0.08 m. This yields an increase of 10 days/year and 110 days/year in HTF hours in the years 2050 and 2100, respectively. Moreover, Pamlico Sound and Chesapeake Bay are expected to experience the most significant changes in HTF frequency, with more than 90 days of HTF by 2050s. Our results show that HTF regime in mesotidal semidiurnal systems are, on average, more sensitive to the projected SLR than the rest.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005328","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145111265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-09-21DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005675
J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, E. Morán-Tejeda, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, C. Garcia
{"title":"Losing Water by Storing It: The Oversighted Side of Intensive Water Regulation and Damming","authors":"J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, E. Morán-Tejeda, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, C. Garcia","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005675","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005675","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Reservoirs are crucial for managing water resources but they may also promote enhanced water evaporation inland. Here we analyze the historical trends, causal attribution, and future projections of regional evaporative losses across 362 Spanish reservoirs, representing 94% of the nation's storage capacity, in one of the most heavily dammed countries in the world. There is a consistent annual increase in evaporation of 27.7 hm<sup>3</sup> year<sup>−1</sup> from 1961 to 2018. This trend resulted in an accumulated evaporative loss of 114,000 hm<sup>3</sup>, averaging 2000 hm<sup>3</sup> year<sup>−1</sup>. While climate dynamics and warming have played a role in this trend, our research demonstrate that the impact of new reservoir construction and fluctuations in available water surface area have been much more influential (22 and 7 times greater, respectively). Anticipated evaporative losses by the end of the 21st century under a high greenhouse gases emissions scenario are expected to be 35% higher than those registered during the observational period. Our projections suggest that warming will increasingly drive evaporation, yet the available water surface will remain a critical determinant.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005675","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145111022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-09-19DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006338
Lei Li, Chunyang He, Qingxu Huang, Zhifeng Liu, Jingwei Li, Kaiyu Zhao, Arthur Lutz, Bruno Merz
{"title":"Growing Imbalance Between Supply and Demand for Flood Regulation Service in the Asian Water Tower and Its Downstream Region","authors":"Lei Li, Chunyang He, Qingxu Huang, Zhifeng Liu, Jingwei Li, Kaiyu Zhao, Arthur Lutz, Bruno Merz","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006338","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006338","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Quantifying the supply-demand dynamics of the flood regulation service (FRS) is crucial for effective flood risk management. However, current methods cannot adequately capture high-altitude hydrological processes, leading to flawed assessments of climate change impacts on FRS in such regions. Here, we improve the methodology for estimating the supply-demand dynamics of FRS and quantify this relationship from 1990 to 2020 within the Asian Water Tower (AWT) and its downstream region. By integrating climate model data with bias correction, we estimate the supply-demand ratio (SDR) of FRS during 2020–2050 on multiple scales. Our findings show that the FRS imbalance in the AWT and its downstream region will persist and intensify. Specifically, more than 44% of the region experienced a significant decline in the SDR during 1990–2020. It is projected that 65.8 ± 2.1% of the region will experience a significant decline in the SDR during 2020–2050 (SSP5-8.5 scenario). Climate and socioeconomic changes have jointly exacerbated this imbalance, with relative contributions of 58.4% and 41.6%, respectively, and such an imbalance further amplifies flood risk. We propose addressing the FRS imbalance from both the supply and demand sides and strengthening cooperation among upstream and downstream regions and internationally within the Indus and Ganges-Brahmaputra basins.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006338","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145102096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-09-19DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006058
Hai Sun, Zihua Zhao, Xuejing Ruan, Yanan Chu, Chao Fan
{"title":"Large-Scale Evaluation of Beach Morphodynamic Evolution and Environmental Drivers Along China's Eastern Coast Through Long-Term Landsat Analysis","authors":"Hai Sun, Zihua Zhao, Xuejing Ruan, Yanan Chu, Chao Fan","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006058","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006058","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Beach evolution severely impacts the economy and social well-being of coastal communities, posing a threat to the safety of coastal infrastructure. Under the influence of rising sea levels and other various environmental variables, the coastal morphology of Eastern China has undergone significant changes, particularly in the low-lying beach areas. It is crucial to gain an in-depth understanding of how environmental variables drive the dynamics of beach morphology, to predict the evolution of coastlines, and to devise effective climate adaptation strategies. However, little is known about the environmental drivers of beach morphodynamic evolution. In this study, we employ automated spectral analysis to detect the morphodynamic evolution of China's eastern beaches from multi-decadal Landsat satellite imagery. We conduct large-scale quantitative processing of four environmental drivers—waves, sea-level rise, typhoons, and sediment concentration. A multi-drivers stepwise regression method that considers interactions between factors is employed to quantify the effects of environmental drivers on beach morphodynamic evolution, yielding standardized coefficients for sea-level rise, typhoons, sediment concentration and wave-typhoon interaction of −0.184, −0.295, 0.891, and −0.230, respectively. Finally, we conduct large-scale and high-resolution regional coastal morphology prediction along China's eastern coast. Based on the prediction results and in combination with the distribution of ports and aquaculture industries, we conduct the risk zone classification. This study provides decision support for the rational development and scientific management of coastlines, contributing to the formulation of prevention and mitigation strategies for coastal erosion and evolution.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006058","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145101836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-09-19DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006021
Jingjing Wu, Jinchao Gong, Feida Sun, Shijie Zhou, Tahmina Kausar, Tong Li, Lizhen Cui, Zhihong Xu, A. Allan Degen, Yakov Kuzyakov, Yanfu Bai
{"title":"Active Restoration of Carbon Poor Degraded Grassland Accelerated Subsoil Carbon Accumulation and Turnover","authors":"Jingjing Wu, Jinchao Gong, Feida Sun, Shijie Zhou, Tahmina Kausar, Tong Li, Lizhen Cui, Zhihong Xu, A. Allan Degen, Yakov Kuzyakov, Yanfu Bai","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006021","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006021","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Grassland degradation and its impact on soil carbon cycle is of worldwide concern, but optimal restoration strategies remain uncertain. We determined temperature sensitivity of organic cabon mineralization (CO<sub>2</sub>-Q<sub>10</sub>) and the mechanisms underlying changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) content across non-restored and restored grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Topsoil and subsoil with three SOC contents from non-restored and passively or actively restored grasslands were incubated for 28 days at 5, 15, and 25°C. We determined the Q<sub>10</sub> of SOC mineralization, and the importance of vegetation, soil physico-chemical properties and microbial communities regulating CO<sub>2</sub>-Q<sub>10</sub>. In C-poor soil, SOC mineralization rate was slowest with active restoration, but SOC storage increased in both topsoil and subsoil. Increased soil pH and C availability raised CO<sub>2</sub>-Q<sub>10</sub> in the actively restored grassland. In subsoil of C-middle soil, SOC storage in passively and actively restored grasslands were 81% and 25% greater, respectively, than in non-restored grassland. In the topsoil of C-rich soil, passively restored grassland had less SOC storage (7.5 kg·m<sup>−2</sup>) than non-restored grassland (10 kg·m<sup>−2</sup>), because the greater aboveground biomass increased SOC decomposition caused by the priming effects driven by organic inputs from litter. The CO<sub>2</sub>-Q<sub>10</sub> in C-rich topsoil in passively restored grasslands (1.1) was less than in non-restored grassland (1.3). These findings emphasize that effective restoration management should consider initial organic C content of the degraded grassland to develop the best ecological restoration approaches to maximize C storage and limit CO<sub>2</sub> emission into the atmosphere.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006021","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145101837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-09-16DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006657
Jiajia Su, Chiyuan Miao, Jinlong Hu, Yi Wu, Jiachen Ji
{"title":"Widening Urban–Rural Precipitation Differences in China: Regionally Varied Intensification Since 2000","authors":"Jiajia Su, Chiyuan Miao, Jinlong Hu, Yi Wu, Jiachen Ji","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006657","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006657","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Urbanization tends to modify heavy precipitation patterns, resulting in increased risk of extreme hazards. However, how urbanization differentially modulates various precipitation categories—captured by indices based on all precipitation events and those representing extremes—has received limited attention. Key uncertainties remain regarding the direction of response (intensification or moderation) and potential thresholds for urbanization-induced precipitation shifts. We assessed the urbanization effects on precipitation across 37 urbanized regions in China from 1980 to 2022, and found the urbanization effects have intensified in most cities since 2000. Urbanization generally reduced the number of wet days but increased the frequency of extreme precipitation. Moreover, urbanization induced an increase in total precipitation, the simple precipitation intensity index, and interannual variability nationally, with precipitation primarily being altered in the cold climate zone and in medium-sized cities. Anthropogenic drivers (e.g., urban area trend) and climatic drivers (e.g., relative humidity) predominantly govern the spatial variability in urbanization effects on all precipitation events, while climatic drivers (e.g., convective available potential energy) primarily modulate the spatial variability of urbanization effects on extreme precipitation. Notably, the urbanization effect on precipitation has intensified in recent decades (2000–2022), with more pronounced effects in arid climate zones and megacities. Anthropogenic and climatic factors both exacerbate the urbanization effect. Our findings provide valuable scientific knowledge for policymakers in urban planning and hazard warning.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006657","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145101620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-09-16DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006203
Hussain H. Bokhari, F. Corsi, A. Miara, B. M. Fekete, S. Gangrade, S.-C. Kao, N. D. Jackson, C. J. Vorosmarty
{"title":"An Integrated Hydroclimatic Assessment of Future Reservoir and Hydropower Operations in the U.S.","authors":"Hussain H. Bokhari, F. Corsi, A. Miara, B. M. Fekete, S. Gangrade, S.-C. Kao, N. D. Jackson, C. J. Vorosmarty","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006203","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006203","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The engineering of rivers by dams is a formative feature of human-nature systems and the interconnectivity of water, energy, and the climate. Sufficient and broad-based representations of dams in large-scale hydrological models prove essential to mapping their extensive regulation of river flow and biogeochemistry and gauging climate-linked provisions, including freshwater supply and hydropower. We present an integrated modeling framework to investigate future streamflow and hydropower generation in the Contiguous U.S. (1990–2075), leveraging an ensemble of six downscaled and bias-corrected General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the high-end SSP585 scenario of the CMIP6. To achieve this, we develop a reservoir operations and parameterization scheme for 1,384 dams in a high-resolution river network, including simulated hydropower generation for 326 dams. For the GCM ensemble mean, we simulate a widespread increase in regulated streamflow into the late-century (11% annual and 17% in winter for the dam median) with region-specific changes in summer streamflow that feature prominent declines in the Northwest (−7%). Mediation by reservoirs is shown to dampen intra-annual streamflow changes, delivering additional summer releases that partially mitigate declining flows. Total hydropower generation is projected to increase modestly (+3%), with boosted generation in the winter (+9%) and spring (+5%) offsetting declined summer generation (−3.4%), suggesting strong adaptation potential for hydropower in the future energy portfolio. Further analysis reveals that the choice of GCM, particularly in western regions, has significant bearing on projected streamflow and hydropower changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006203","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145101696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-09-15DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005738
Meimei Li, Matthew D. Petrie, Xiaotao Lü, Jiajia Wang, Xibin Sun, Nan Hu, Hao Chen
{"title":"Salinization Decreases Soil Phosphorus Availability and Plant Productivity in Terrestrial Ecosystems","authors":"Meimei Li, Matthew D. Petrie, Xiaotao Lü, Jiajia Wang, Xibin Sun, Nan Hu, Hao Chen","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005738","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005738","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Soil phosphorus (P) availability is crucial for plant productivity, and salinization is generally expected to reduce plant productivity in global terrestrial ecosystems. However, the response of soil P availability to salinization remains unclear, making it difficult to assess its role in shaping plant responses to salinization. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of 823 observations from 87 published articles to investigate the effects of salinization on soil P availability and plant productivity across global terrestrial ecosystems. Across these studies, salinization decreased soil total P by an average of 4.6%, available P by 11.2%, and phosphatase activity by 25.4%. The effect of salinization on soil P availability was primarily modulated by salinization magnitude and exposure duration, vegetation types, ecosystem types, and climate conditions. Specifically, the negative effects of salinization on soil P availability were exacerbated with increasing salinization magnitude and duration, and were stronger in ecosystems dominated by herbaceous vegetation and in regions with lower precipitation. Across global ecosystems, the negative effects of salinization on soil P availability were associated with the declines in plant productivity. Our meta-analysis provides a comprehensive understanding of how salinization impacts soil P availability across diverse vegetation and ecosystem types worldwide, and highlights that optimizing fertilization strategies and plant community composition are crucial for enhancing plant productivity and ecosystem functioning in salt-affected areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005738","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145062504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-09-15DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006648
Sarath Suresh, Faisal Hossain
{"title":"Has Hydropower Made the World More Flood-Prone?","authors":"Sarath Suresh, Faisal Hossain","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006648","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006648","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hydropower has emerged as a cornerstone of global renewable energy initiatives, providing a reliable and renewable source of electricity essential to achieving low emissions targets. However, its expansion, especially in high-precipitation and mountainous regions of developing countries, has sparked growing concerns about its role in exacerbating downstream flood risks. This study critically examines the complex relationship between hydropower development and flood risk through the analysis of 107 major hydropower dams in such regions of the world spanning a period of 40 years. While 41.1% of the studied dams were found to exhibit flood mitigating characteristics by buffering against extreme inflows, 26.2% of dams were likely to exacerbate flood risks, primarily due to a steady increase in precipitation rates and sedimentation-induced capacity loss. Hydropower dams in regions with shorter downstream river lengths were found to be more flood-inducing than flood-protecting. While regions with flood-protecting dams naturally trigger urbanization and economic growth due to perceived safety and stable energy availability, these benefits are accompanied by the cost of increased deforestation. The study identified hotspots in South America and South Asia, where hydropower dams are more likely to be clustered as flood inducing in nature. Overall, the study calls for a paradigm shift in hydropower planning and management, emphasizing the integration of adaptive flood risk mitigation into energy production strategies keeping in mind the anticipated changes in climate and land cover along with a robust sedimentation management strategy during the dam's service lifespan.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006648","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145062503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-09-13DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005437
Myrthe Leijnse, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Niko Wanders
{"title":"Exploring Global Water Scarcity Dynamics Through Causal Discovery and Structural Causal Modelling","authors":"Myrthe Leijnse, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Niko Wanders","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005437","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005437","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Water scarcity represents a critical global challenge driven by diverse complex interactions between natural and anthropogenic factors. Long-term water scarcity often results in depletion of water resources in so-called water scarcity hotspots. To understand the interactions among social, ecological, and hydrological components within these water scarcity hotspots, we applied causal discovery to observational time series of socio-economic, meteorological, and ecological variables. This resulted in a network representing the causal relations between these variables and Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS). Recognizing the limitations of causal discovery, we supplemented the network with expert knowledge. From this we derived Structural Causal Models (SCMs) that simulate the causal mechanisms influencing TWS trends at the water scarcity hotspots. The resulting SCMs have a variable performance with a median <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mi>r</mi>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${mathrm{r}}^{2}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> of 0.67 compared to TWS observations. The SCMs allowed us to estimate the impact of anthropogenic and natural changes on TWS variability at water scarcity hotspots. Our analysis confirms population growth as the most significant cause of TWS change in hotspots. As such, this study demonstrates how causal discovery and SCMs can enhance modelling of human-water system dynamics affected by water scarcity, improving the understanding of these systems and potential impacts of future changes on water storage and availability. For future research, more detailed data on human-water use is needed to improve the robustness of these models. This is essential for developing effective water management strategies to mitigate water scarcity at hotspots.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005437","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145038127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}