Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Rethinking Systemic Risk: An Orthogonal Interaction Framework Linking System-Wide Disruption and Systemic Vulnerability","authors":"Iuliana Armaş,&nbsp;Andra-Cosmina Albulescu","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008718","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008718","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper proposes an integrative conceptual framework for understanding systemic risk as emerging in highly interconnected socio-ecological-technical systems. Previous research has often examined hazard-driven risk and vulnerability as separate analytical problems. We argue that systemic risk develops through their interaction within systems characterized by interdependence, nonlinearity, and feedback processes, properties that fundamentally differentiate systemic risk from traditional risk paradigms. We translate this integration into an orthogonal interaction model structured around three independent dimensions: mechanism, topology, and timing. The framework maps 27 interaction types onto three systemic-risk tiers according to their cascade potential, providing a diagnostic structure for distinguishing cascade-generating, pre-critical, and weak or buffering configurations. The framework synthesizes two complementary analytical perspectives that remain largely disconnected in the literature. The first approaches systemic risk as system-wide disruption resulting from cascading, compounding, and cross-system interactions. The second approach frames it through systemic vulnerability, that is, a persistent vulnerability core shaped by long-term socio-economic, institutional, cultural, and governance processes. Bringing these perspectives together shows how systemic risk emerges when disturbances activate pre-existing vulnerabilities through cascade-permissive interaction structures. This explains why moderate-magnitude hazards can trigger disproportionate impacts and why such events exhibit heavy-tailed loss distributions driven by interaction-induced feedback processes. We illustrate the analytical utility of the proposed framework through recent cascading disasters with major implications for risk governance. The framework shifts attention from hazard magnitude alone toward systemic vulnerability, interdependencies, and cascade-prone architectures, with direct implications for risk assessment and adaptation policy.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008718","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying the Effectiveness of Multiple SAI Strategies Across Different Dimensions","authors":"Cindy Wang,&nbsp;Daniele Visioni,&nbsp;Walker Raymond Lee,&nbsp;Alistair Duffey,&nbsp;Christopher Robert Wentland,&nbsp;Lauren Wheeler,&nbsp;Benjamin Wagman,&nbsp;Samantha Turbeville,&nbsp;Shingo Watanabe,&nbsp;Matthew Henry","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008696","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008696","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) modeling experiments are often designed to keep global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT) close to a reference target, such as early-century SSP2-4.5. However, meeting this target does not necessarily restore regional climates or the seasonal and spatial patterns of key variables. We evaluate multiple SAI strategies (ARISE-SAI-1.0/1.5, G6-1.5K-SAI, and G6-1.5K-HiLLA) across four Earth system models (CESM2-WACCM6, UKESM1, E3SMv3, and MIROC) using a dimensionless, variability-scaled distance-to-target metric applied to the monthly climatological seasonal cycle. We decompose this distance into mean offset, seasonal-cycle amplitude, and phase/pattern contributions, and use matched baseline-against-baseline null distributions to estimate the finite-sampling floor. SAI substantially reduces temperature distance-to-target relative to late-century SSP2-4.5, but the majority of SAI model–scenario cases exceed the 97.5th percentile of their matched finite-sampling null distributions, indicating that residual temperature departures remain detectable even when large-scale temperature targets are met. These residuals are more strongly associated with differences in seasonal timing than with mean offsets. In contrast, most precipitation distances do not exceed their matched null thresholds, so some apparent precipitation residuals cannot be distinguished from finite-sampling variability. This framework enables consistent comparisons across intervention strategies, variables, and models without regridding, and identifies where meeting GMSAT targets does or does not restore regional and seasonal climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008696","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dispersed Urban Expansion Amplifies Land Surface Evapotranspiration Loss","authors":"Yang Zhang,&nbsp;Kun Yang,&nbsp;Yanhui Zhu,&nbsp;Shihong Du,&nbsp;Zongqi Peng,&nbsp;Xixi Lu","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008063","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The expansion of impervious surfaces (IS) substantially modifies urban water cycles and local climate regimes by suppressing evapotranspiration (ET), thereby affecting the sustainability of human settlements. However, most existing studies have emphasized the effects of IS quantity or coverage, while it remains unclear how different spatial patterns of urban expansion—dispersed versus compact—differentially regulate ET loss, as well as the extent of their respective impacts. This study integrates machine learning, interpretable artificial intelligence, and landscape pattern analysis to disentangle, with 256 cities in China as the research area, for the first time, the role of IS spatial expansion mode in regulating ET. Our results reveal that the suppressive effect of IS on ET weakens progressively from humid to arid regions and that its contribution to ET reduction follows a logarithmic growth pattern (all <i>R</i>² &gt; 0.6), intensifying most rapidly during initial urbanization. This early-stage sensitivity makes the initial choice of spatial expansion modes critical. Our causal analysis confirms that leap-frogging expansion—characterized by high dispersion and low connectivity—exerts the strongest per-unit-area suppression, reducing ET by 93.1 ± 48.4% more than compact, interior-filling expansion. In humid coastal megacities, each 10% increase in impervious surface percentage under this dispersed pattern reduces ET by 28.2 mm/yr. These findings underscore the critical role played by the spatial pattern of urban expansion in hydroclimatic regulation and provide a quantitative basis for designing climate-resilient cities that sustain both development and ecological functions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008063","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The 2023–2024 El Niño as a Preview of Future Tropical Forest Climate","authors":"Johanna Van Passel,&nbsp;Steven J. De Hertog,&nbsp;Hans Verbeeck,&nbsp;Philippe Ciais,&nbsp;Peter Groenendijk,&nbsp;Andrés Martínez de Velasco,&nbsp;Peter van der Sleen,&nbsp;Pieter A. Zuidema,&nbsp;Félicien Meunier","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008071","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tropical forests are an important component of the global carbon cycle. Increasingly frequent droughts and heatwaves are undermining their resilience, with far-reaching impacts on local livelihoods and on regional and global hydrological cycles. El Niño events, recurring climate patterns that lead to dry and hot conditions across multiple tropical regions, have always influenced these dynamics, but the 2023–2024 El Niño produced extreme droughts and heatwaves that exceeded the typical El Niño footprint. Here, we place the 2023–2024 El Niño in both past (2000–2024) and future (2025–2100) climatic contexts across pantropical forests. We assess its climatic magnitude using ensembles of reanalyses, satellite climate products, and Earth System Models. Climate anomalies over 2000–2024 show that three quarters of pantropical forests experienced, on average, 6 months of compound droughts and heatwaves during 2023–2024. Based on future climate projections, most tropical forest regions will reach high probabilities of experiencing 2023–2024-like temperatures on an annual basis, while the probability of similar droughts is expected to increase mostly in Amazonian forests. These results indicate that the 2023–2024 El Niño may have presented a preview of future tropical forest conditions, which can only be prevented by rapid and drastic reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008071","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Potential for Expanding Sorghum Production in Europe in the Face of Climate Change","authors":"Mohsen Davoudkhani,&nbsp;Nicolas Guilpart,&nbsp;David Makowski,&nbsp;Nicolas Viovy,&nbsp;Philippe Ciais,&nbsp;Ronny Lauerwald","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007503","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Today, sorghum is a minor crop in Europe cultivated on only ∼0.1% of the cropland area. Nonetheless, sorghum is of growing interest due to its high heat tolerance compared to other crops and better adaptation to future hot and dry summers. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of expanding sorghum cultivation in Europe under current and future climatic conditions. We also explored the possibility of replacing maize with locally-produced sorghum for feeding livestock. To this end, we developed a machine-learning model that predicts sorghum yields from high-resolution climate data. The model was trained on historical sorghum yield data collected at the county level in France, Italy, Spain, and the USA. Then, we used the model to predict sorghum yields for current and future climate conditions, following different climate change scenarios. In almost all scenarios, sorghum yields decreased by up to 1.5 t ha⁻¹ in the southern part of Europe but increased substantially by up to 3 t ha⁻¹ in the northern part of Europe by end-of-century. We found that at least 90% of maize currently used to feed livestock could be replaced by sorghum in Europe if grown in 1 out of 3 years. These results provide valuable information for improving feed security in Europe in the face of climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007503","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149145557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sustainable Management of Global Platinum Group Resources in the Energy Transition: A Group Metabolism Perspective","authors":"Wang Gu,&nbsp;Jinze Li,&nbsp;Yue Xu,&nbsp;Peixue Xing,&nbsp;Ziyan Gao,&nbsp;Yong Geng","doi":"10.1029/2026EF009070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF009070","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As the transition toward carbon neutrality accelerates, platinum group metals (PGMs) have emerged as indispensable resources for the low-carbon transformation. However, the supply of this PGM supply chain is very concentrated, with 99% of primary production coming from South Africa and Russia. This study employs dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) to quantify the global metabolism of five PGMs (Pt, Pd, Rh, Ir, Ru) across five major regions from 2011 to 2025. A significant spatiotemporal mismatch was identified, with demand centers shifting toward East Asia, North America, and Europe where Pd and Rh shares reached 81.00% and 88.47% respectively. The global in-use stocks of Pt and Pd surged to 1,925.48 tons and 2,284.51 tons at the end of 2025. In terms of circularity of these PGMs, the recovery rates exceeded 90% in North America, but such recycling system is not yet fully developed in China, while Japan is facing the reduced secondary PGMs supply. Also, although 2318.76 tons of PGMs were recovered through open-loop routes, 216.66 tons remained unrecovered, indicating further opportunities to improve PGM recycling efficiency. These results provide valuable insights to facilitate those policy makers to prepare appropriate policies to maintain sustainable supply of PGMs.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF009070","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149145616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimizing Hybrid Wind–Solar Systems in Barren Land Under Constraints Imposed by Atmospheric Aerosols","authors":"Xuesong Wang,&nbsp;Chunlai Zhang,&nbsp;Zhishan Xia,&nbsp;Jirui Gong","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007325","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007325","url":null,"abstract":"<p>By using a solar photovoltaic (PV) performance model and applying it to global data from 2000 to 2022, we demonstrated that although the net impact of aerosols on power generation was negative, this loss was almost entirely driven by soiling of panel surfaces and could be mitigated by developing an appropriate cleaning regime. In contrast, aerosol scattering of light under certain atmospheric conditions can locally increase power generation and stabilize output. These insights highlight the necessity of systematic, regionally tailored panel-cleaning protocols—particularly for tracking systems, which are most susceptible to aerosol deposition. Moreover, across regions with sufficient wind resources, optimally configured wind–solar systems partially compensated for aerosol-related reductions in solar performance, reducing system instability by more than 51% and increasing capacity factor by 97%. Finally, we found that deploying hybrid systems in barren land is ecologically viable if they are paired with adaptive cleaning regimens: in regions with high aerosol loads, timely panel cleaning can yield better cost–benefit returns than investments in advanced tracking technology. Together, these findings clarify both the promises and pitfalls of hybrid sources of renewable energy in areas threatened by aerosol deposition, and provide a clear roadmap for maximizing their sustainable deployment.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007325","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149145617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Science or Strategy? The Rejection of the Anthropocene Epoch Demands Transparency","authors":"Georg N. Schäfer,&nbsp;Jürgen Renn,&nbsp;Christoph Rosol,&nbsp;Jochen Büttner","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007638","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007638","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In a recent Earth's Future article, Skelton and Noone (2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ef005719) crystallized the dilemma facing the geoscientific community: the Anthropocene Working Group's (AWG) evidentiary case for an Anthropocene epoch is at least as strong as, and in their view stronger than, that for the Holocene. Yet a substantive scientific debate cannot proceed until the reasons for the rejection of the AWG's proposal to formalize the Anthropocene as a geological epoch are made transparent. Often framed as a question of stratigraphic markers and boundary criteria, the Anthropocene controversy now turns on a more fundamental issue: whether current institutional practices for establishing geological time units meet the transparency and procedural standards expected in times of heavy public reliance on Earth-system expertise. Drawing on surfaced communications, public statements, independent reporting and publicly available documentation, we identify unresolved procedural irregularities in the evaluation of the AWG proposal, including questions about voter eligibility and quorum, restricted access to key documents, and the handling of an IUGS-commissioned geoethics report. These matters have not been addressed in a systematic or public way. We argue that clarifying the basis of the decision—scientific or otherwise—is essential to preserve trust in stratigraphic governance and, by extension, in the institutions that underpin global environmental knowledge. We therefore call for full disclosure of the relevant documentation and an independent procedural review to ensure that decisions about Geological Time Scale remain credible and legitimate in the context of rapid planetary change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007638","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149145618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate Change Increases Water Scarcity Risks and Adaptation Needs in China","authors":"Yuqian Zhang,&nbsp;Yunhe Yin,&nbsp;Mijia Yin,&nbsp;Xuezheng Zong","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007712","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007712","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Increasing droughts are exacerbating the imbalance between water supply and demand, complicating efforts to secure reliable water and food supplies for key sectors. However, limited understanding of how water use responds to drought constrains effective risk management and climate adaptation. Using monthly water use and meteorological data across mainland China from 1981 to 2020, we developed an event-scale framework integrating time series decomposition, deep learning, and event coincidence analysis to quantify sector-specific responses to meteorological droughts. Droughts impacted a relatively small portion of land (14.9% of China mainland) but accounted for a disproportionately large share of water use (47.4%). Northern basins were particularly sensitive, with water use rising by 5.67% (4.49%–6.37%) during drought events. Irrigation emerged as the primary driver of water use changes, with demand increasing as drought intensity rises. Projected intensification of droughts suggests that by 2100, more than 10% of affected regions could face high water scarcity risks under SSP1-2.6, which may increase to 25.5% under SSP5-8.5. These findings highlight pronounced spatial disparities in drought responses and emphasize the need to incorporate water use dynamics into climate risk assessments.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007712","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149145615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Social-Ecological Drivers of Cropland Productivity Dynamics for Sustainable Intensification","authors":"Bo Han,&nbsp;Rui Sun,&nbsp;Xiaobin Jin,&nbsp;Yeting Fan,&nbsp;Yinkang Zhou,&nbsp;Qilei Zhao","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007688","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007688","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Sustainably enhancing cropland productivity is critical for global food security, yet its drivers within complex social-ecological systems remain poorly understood. Conventional analyses often miss the cross-scale, non-linear dynamics that shape productivity, leading to ineffective policies. Here, we deconstruct the drivers of cropland productivity change across China (2001–2020) using a multi-scale framework integrating machine learning and causal inference. We find that productivity is co-determined by biophysical properties, urbanization, and cropland use intensity with pronounced non-linear interactions. Critically, we reveal a scale-dependent shift in dominant drivers, from biophysical processes at macro-scales to socioeconomic forces at micro-scales. Our analysis further uncovers that urbanization reduces cropland productivity sustainability through both direct losses and indirect losses operating via weakened cropland conservation and lower land-use intensity, consistent with rural labor drain and declining management engagement. However, local land- and economic-urbanization can enhance sustainability in many counties, especially in major farming regions. This points to a misalignment between physical-resource-oriented policies and social system-centered vulnerabilities. Consequently, our results demonstrate that productivity is an emergent property of the entire social-ecological system, and its sustainability requires an adaptive governance approach capable of managing these systemic, multi-scale dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007688","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}