Earths Future最新文献_第3页

Permafrost Thaw Impact on Remaining Carbon Budgets and Emissions Pathways in 2°C and 3°C Global Warming Scenarios 2°C和3°C全球变暖情景下永久冻土融化对剩余碳收支和排放途径的影响

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005153

Goran Georgievski, Thomas Kleinen, Philipp de Vrese, Victor Brovkin, Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher

{"title":"Permafrost Thaw Impact on Remaining Carbon Budgets and Emissions Pathways in 2°C and 3°C Global Warming Scenarios","authors":"Goran Georgievski, Thomas Kleinen, Philipp de Vrese, Victor Brovkin, Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005153","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005153","url":null,"abstract":"High-latitude frozen soils contain a vast store of organic matter, a potential source of greenhouse gases due to permafrost thaw. Understanding natural carbon cycle responses to climate change is crucial for emission reduction strategies. We use the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, driven by the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA), to assess emission pathways for limiting global warming to 2°C and 3°C relative to preindustrial levels, while accounting for frozen soil carbon (FSC). We found that thawing FSC makes 122 PgC under 2°C and 229 PgC under 3°C warming, available for decomposition with about 75% reaching the atmosphere as carbon-dioxide by 2298. Emission pathways that include the release of FSC diverge from their respective reference simulations without permafrost between the middle (2°C) and end (3°C) of the current century. By 2298, remaining carbon budgets are reduced by ∼13% (115 PgC) for 2°C and ∼11% (156 PgC) for 3°C stabilization levels. Annual permafrost emissions average ∼0.7 PgC/yr for 3°C and ∼0.3 PgC/yr for 2°C during the simulation period (2025–2298). However, temporary emission peaks reaching half of present-day annual fossil fuel emissions (∼5 PgC) are possible. Surprisingly, while negative emissions are required for both reference simulations, only the simulation for the 3°C warming, accounting for FSC, requires negative fossil fuel emissions. This occurs because the FSC release causes an earlier initiation of emission reduction by AERA, resulting in a smoother emission curve. These findings underscore the importance of factoring in carbon released from permafrost thaw in mitigation action.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005153","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144558090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enlarging Difference Between Persistent Extreme Precipitation and Fixed-Time Extremes in China 中国持续极端降水与固定时间极端降水差异的扩大

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005877

Yihui Zhang, Kang Liang, Xiaomang Liu, Changming Liu

{"title":"Enlarging Difference Between Persistent Extreme Precipitation and Fixed-Time Extremes in China","authors":"Yihui Zhang, Kang Liang, Xiaomang Liu, Changming Liu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005877","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005877","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme precipitation occurs persistently in nature and has caused a series of social, environmental, and ecological problems. However, most analyses of extreme precipitation are conducted at fixed-time intervals, which may lead to misconceptions of the spatial-temporal changes and causes, hindering scientific understanding and engineering prevention. In this study, we quantified the differences between persistent and fixed-time extreme precipitation in China using historical observations from over 2,400 meteorological stations between 1960 and 2019 and future simulations from 10 global climate models during 2021–2100 under three scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). The national average annual-maximum persistent precipitation (Rx1event) was 2.5 times greater than extremes for fixed-time precipitation (Rx1day) historically, and 2.8 times higher in the future period. Although Rx1day increased faster than Rx1event in the historical period, it is projected to grow more slowly than Rx1event in all three future scenarios. Both Rx1day and Rx1event exhibit Hook structures responding to temperature. The Peak temperatures of Hook structures are expected to rise by 2–6°C with projected future climate change, causing the precipitation-temperature response curve to shift to the high-value direction, thereby increasing the magnitude of Rx1day by 5%–12% and Rx1event by 22%–29%. Our research enlightens disaster preventers and researchers to pay more attention to persistent extreme precipitation, especially in areas where it differs significantly from the fixed-time scale.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005877","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144551060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reduced Anthropogenic Aerosols Reveal Increased Heatwaves Driven by Climate Warming 人为气溶胶减少表明气候变暖导致热浪增加

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006516

Jia Wei, Weiguang Wang, Adriaan J. Teuling, Jianyun Zhang, Guoqing Wang, Junliang Jin, Xiaoyin Liu, Mingzhu Cao, Hongbin Li, Liyan Yang, Shuo Wang

{"title":"Reduced Anthropogenic Aerosols Reveal Increased Heatwaves Driven by Climate Warming","authors":"Jia Wei, Weiguang Wang, Adriaan J. Teuling, Jianyun Zhang, Guoqing Wang, Junliang Jin, Xiaoyin Liu, Mingzhu Cao, Hongbin Li, Liyan Yang, Shuo Wang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006516","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006516","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the contributions of anthropogenic climate forcings to heatwave intensification is essential for evaluating mitigation strategies. While greenhouse gas influences on temperature extremes are well established, the impacts of other anthropogenic forcings, particularly aerosols, remain inadequately characterized. Here, we quantify the distinct contributions of greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols, and natural forcings to extreme heatwave metrics from the pre-industrial period. Globally, changes in the duration of heatwave events and cumulative heat are +2.77 ± 0.85 days and +1.76 ± 0.31°C2 attributed to greenhouse gases, and −1.10 ± 0.34 days and −0.85 ± 0.14°C2 due to anthropogenic aerosols, respectively, over the past 3 decades relative to pre-industrial levels. This indicates that aerosols substantially masked greenhouse gas effects until the 1990s. Under current mitigation policies, declining aerosol emissions have exacerbated heatwave intensification at rates of +1.07 ± 0.32 days decade−1 and +0.47 ± 0.09°C2 decade−1 for duration and cumulative heat respectively, exceeding the intensification attributable to greenhouse gases alone. Heatwave intensification has been driven primarily by reduced cloud cover and increased shortwave radiation resulting from weakening aerosol forcing, especially in Central North America and Europe. However, the regional climate changes driven by greenhouse gases and aerosols exhibit spatial heterogeneity, highlighting the necessity for geographically targeted mitigation strategies.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006516","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144551061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessment of Global Dengue Transmission Risk Under Future Climate Scenarios 未来气候情景下全球登革热传播风险评估

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006154

Fengliu Feng, Yuxia Ma, Yuhan Zhao, Zongrui Liu, Rentao Zhang, Ziyue Wan

{"title":"Assessment of Global Dengue Transmission Risk Under Future Climate Scenarios","authors":"Fengliu Feng, Yuxia Ma, Yuhan Zhao, Zongrui Liu, Rentao Zhang, Ziyue Wan","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006154","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006154","url":null,"abstract":"Dengue is a climate-sensitive mosquito-borne infectious disease with a rapidly increasing incidence and global transmission. Climate change alters the suitability of mosquito vectors, affecting viral transmission. We assessed the global dengue transmission potential and suitable months under future climate scenarios by integrating the mosquito-borne virus suitability index (Index P) with temperature and humidity projections from 12 global climate models. A substantial expansion of dengue risk zones from tropical to temperate regions was projected. The magnitude and pace of dengue risk escalation in China and the U.S. far exceed other temperate regions, with a considerable increase in at-risk population and exposed land areas. In contrast, Europe exhibits a more delayed and moderate increase in dengue risk. In the SSP245 scenario for the 2050s, high dengue suitability zones are prominently located in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa with emergent areas in southern North America and East Africa. By 2100, these zones expand to southern China and northern Australia. Under the SSP585 high-emission scenario, the global dengue risk landscape shifts dramatically, with extensive risk zones emerging in the southeastern United States, China, and southern Europe, while some tropical regions such as Brazil and India experience a notable decline in transmission suitability due to extreme heat stress. By extending Index P to long-term projections, this study uncovers both underappreciated early surges in temperate regions and unexpected declines in overheated tropics. These insights are critical for improving early warning systems in newly exposed populations.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006154","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144558233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rising Global Elderly Health Inequalities in the Face of Temperature Extremes 面对极端温度，全球老年人健康不平等现象日益加剧

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006000

Yuan Qi, Bo Huang, Chris Webster

{"title":"Rising Global Elderly Health Inequalities in the Face of Temperature Extremes","authors":"Yuan Qi, Bo Huang, Chris Webster","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006000","url":null,"abstract":"The elderly population, being particularly vulnerable, is expected to face increased life-threatening risk due to climate change, especially in low-income regions, thereby exacerbating global inequalities. Here we developed the Elderly Mortality Risk Index (EMRI) to sufficiently understand the intricate relationships among aging, climate vulnerability, and elderly health risk from temperature extremes. Our analysis shows that the cumulative intensity and duration of global temperature extremes has increased by an average of 36% from 1990 to 2020 and is projected to rise by 52% over the next 30 years. The Global South, inhabited by 10% of the world's elderly (aged 69+), bears 53% of the EMRI during the 60-year period. Low-income regions experience the highest EMRI, averaging 4% more than other regions. Projections for 2021–2050 indicate that the global EMRI will peak in 2033 before gradually declining. South Asia (SA) and Southeast Asia are expected to be the most severely affected regions, with averaged EMRI 8% higher than those in the lowest-risk regions. When focusing on age-specific groups (69+), the global EMRI will be 59% higher, the EMRI disparity is projected to be 13 times greater between SA and the lowest-risk regions, and 80 times greater between high-income and low-income regions, than when considering all-age group. Our findings highlight the urgent need for targeted climate adaptation strategies and enhanced gerontological support to address the growing health challenges in an aging and warming world.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006000","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144550991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate Change Increases Evaporative and Crop Irrigation Demand in North America 气候变化增加了北美的蒸发和作物灌溉需求

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF005931

Emily L. Williams, John T. Abatzoglou

{"title":"Climate Change Increases Evaporative and Crop Irrigation Demand in North America","authors":"Emily L. Williams, John T. Abatzoglou","doi":"10.1029/2025EF005931","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF005931","url":null,"abstract":"Across North America, warmer temperatures have increased reference evapotranspiration (ETo), taxing water resources. This problem is especially pronounced for semi-arid regions with large amounts of irrigated agriculture, such as California's Central Valley. In this region, increased ETo has increased irrigation demand, but the role of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) in driving this increase has not yet been quantified. Here, we quantified the influence of ACC on ETo and how these changes have translated into increased irrigation demand. We calculated observational ETo from ERA5-Land and counterfactual ETo that removes the forced changes simulated by 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 from the observational records. At the scale of North America, we found that ACC drove a 64 mm increase in annual ETo from 1980 to 2022, compared to the observed 54 mm increase. The largest observed increases in ETo were found in the southwestern and central regions, where ACC has likely exacerbated trends linked to natural climate variability. The largest ACC contributor to increased ETo was increased vapor pressure deficit, while decreased solar radiation has tempered increased ETo. Finally, we found that ACC has increased annual crop irrigation demand in the Central Valley by 0.76 km3 during 1980–2022, with cumulative increased irrigation demand of 9.2 km3, equivalent to ∼11% of the region's groundwater loss during this time. Our findings suggest that ACC is accelerating demand for water in this already water-limited region, and this phenomenon is likely occurring in other semi-arid agricultural regions of North America.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF005931","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Key Environmental and Ecological Variables of Wetland CH4 and CO2 Fluxes Change With Warming 湿地CH4和CO2通量的关键环境生态变量随变暖的变化

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005751

Mengze Li, Fa Li, Avni Malhotra, Sara H. Knox, Rafael Stern, Robert B. Jackson

{"title":"Key Environmental and Ecological Variables of Wetland CH4 and CO2 Fluxes Change With Warming","authors":"Mengze Li, Fa Li, Avni Malhotra, Sara H. Knox, Rafael Stern, Robert B. Jackson","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005751","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005751","url":null,"abstract":"Wetlands are important ecosystems for the global carbon cycle, impacting regional and global methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) budgets. This study examines how environmental and ecological variables impact wetland CH4 flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) across 17 sites globally. We also quantified the importance of variables for each wetland type and site at monthly scale under normal and warm temperatures using dominance analysis. We identified soil and air temperature (TS, TA, respectively) as key variables influencing wetland CH4, and latent heat (LE) and shortwave radiation (SW) for NEE under normal and warm conditions. However, the importance of some variables shifted with warming. For predicting the variability of wetland CH4 flux under warming, gross primary productivity (GPP) and LE, replacing wind direction (WD), were dominant variables for tropical swamps, while NEE was important for high-latitude fens and bogs under warm temperatures. For wetland NEE, the role of TA and TS decreased across all wetland types with warming, while vapor pressure deficit (VPD) became more important for mid and high-latitude wetlands. Our results reveal the complex responses of wetland carbon flux to environmental and ecological variables with warming and provide new insights into improving wetland models by incorporating additional variables and accounting for the changing roles of variables in carbon flux under warming.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005751","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144367614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Indian Ocean Dipole Impacts on Eastern African Short Rains Across Observations, Historical Simulations and Future Projections 印度洋偶极子对东非短雨的影响：观测、历史模拟和未来预测

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005219

Yiling Zheng, Chi-Yung Tam, Matthew Collins

{"title":"Indian Ocean Dipole Impacts on Eastern African Short Rains Across Observations, Historical Simulations and Future Projections","authors":"Yiling Zheng, Chi-Yung Tam, Matthew Collins","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005219","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005219","url":null,"abstract":"Eastern African “short rains” (October–December) are significantly influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with increased rainfall during positive IOD events and dryness during negative IOD events. Most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models overestimate the short-rain response to IOD events in Eastern Africa, especially during negative events. This is due to enhanced zonal moisture transport anomalies, mainly related to amplified IOD intensity and the westward extension of the IOD eastern core. Mean-state precipitation biases further contribute to overestimated short rains, traced back to the mean-state positive IOD-like biases. Under global warming, the contrasting short-rain responses to IOD in the Horn of Africa and Southeastern Africa are primarily driven by the westward-shifting IOD circulation. Enhanced impacts in the Horn of Africa are driven by stronger IOD-related zonal winds and the more humid mean-state atmosphere which is attributed to the IOD-like warming pattern. In contrast, weakened impacts in Southeastern Africa are associated with anomalous meridional wind changes. Additionally, due to more extreme negative IOD events, the frequency as well as severity of droughts in the Horn of Africa are projected to increase. These findings provide valuable insights into Eastern Africa's climate dynamics and inform climate adaptation strategies.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005219","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144323645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Increasing Cumulative Impacts of Droughts Under Climate Change Does Not Alter the Ecosystem Resilience in India 气候变化下日益增加的干旱累积影响不会改变印度生态系统的恢复能力

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005888

Vijaykumar Bejagam, Ashutosh Sharma

{"title":"Increasing Cumulative Impacts of Droughts Under Climate Change Does Not Alter the Ecosystem Resilience in India","authors":"Vijaykumar Bejagam, Ashutosh Sharma","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005888","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005888","url":null,"abstract":"Drought significantly impacts plant carbon uptake, a critical process for regulating atmospheric CO2. With the intensification of droughts under climate change, understanding ecosystem responses to these events is essential. In this study, we analyzed the impacts of droughts on Net Primary Productivity (NPP) in India over the 21st century. We tested two hypotheses: (a) increasing drought intensity and frequency will exacerbate NPP reductions, and (b) climate warming will diminish ecosystem resilience, leading to greater NPP reductions per drought event. To evaluate ecosystem responses, we employed a Multi-Dimensional Resilience Index (MDRI), which integrates resistance and recovery time to quantify resilience. Our analysis revealed a substantial increase in extreme and moderate droughts, while mild droughts remained stable. Extreme droughts were projected to cause NPP reductions three times greater under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and six times greater under the SSP5-8.5 scenario compared to the baseline period (1850–2014). Ecosystems in the Western Ghats and lower Himalayan regions demonstrated moderate resilience due to prolonged recovery times and moderate resistance. Conversely, ecosystems in Northeastern India exhibited high resilience, characterized by strong resistance and shorter recovery periods. Interestingly, while resistance exhibited an increasing trend, likely influenced by carbon fertilization, recovery times showed a declining trend, potentially linked to rising temperatures. These findings do not support the second hypothesis, as no significant changes in overall ecosystem resilience were observed due to compensatory effects between resistance and recovery. This study can inform conservation strategies aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of drought on carbon cycling.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005888","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144315334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Characterizing the Effects of Policy Instruments on Cost and Deployment Trajectories of Direct Air Capture in the U.S. Energy System 表征政策工具对美国能源系统中直接空气捕获的成本和部署轨迹的影响

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF005924

Franklyn Kanyako, Michael Craig

{"title":"Characterizing the Effects of Policy Instruments on Cost and Deployment Trajectories of Direct Air Capture in the U.S. Energy System","authors":"Franklyn Kanyako, Michael Craig","doi":"10.1029/2025EF005924","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF005924","url":null,"abstract":"Capturing and sequestering carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere via large-scale direct air capture (DAC) deployment is critical for achieving net-zero emissions. Large-scale DAC deployment, though, will require significant cost reductions in part through policy and investment support. This study evaluates the impact of policy interventions on DAC cost reduction by integrating energy system optimization and learning curve models. We examine how three policy instruments—incremental deployment, accelerated deployment, and R&D-driven innovation—impact DAC learning investment, which is the total investment required until the technology achieves cost parity with conventional alternatives or target cost. Our findings show that while incremental deployment demands significant learning investment, R&D-driven innovation is considerably cheaper at cost reduction. Under a baseline 8% learning rate, incremental deployment may require up to $998 billion to reduce costs from $1,154 to $400/tCO2, while accelerated deployment support could save approximately $7 billion on that investment. In contrast, R&D support achieves equivalent cost reductions at less than half the investment of incremental deployment. However, the effectiveness of R&D intervention varies with learning rates and R&D breakthroughs. R&D yields net benefits in all cases except at extremely low breakthroughs (5%) and very high learning rates (20%), where they are slightly more expensive. For learning rates below 20%, R&D provides net benefits even at minimal breakthroughs. These findings underscore the need for comprehensive public policy strategies that balance near-term deployment incentives with long-term innovation investments if we are to ensure DACS becomes a viable technology for mitigating climate change.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF005924","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144315218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0