{"title":"Responses of the Natural Phytoplankton Assemblage to Patagonian Dust Input and Anthropogenic Changes in the Southern Ocean","authors":"Clément Demasy, Marie Boye, Ambroise Delisée, Jean-François Maguer, Melilotus Thyssen, Léa Gest","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005762","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005762","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The cumulative effects of multi-faceted changes on the phytoplankton community of the Southern Ocean (SO) are not yet known, which is a major limitation to predicting the future direction of the biological carbon pump. Thus, our study aimed to estimate the effects of intensified Patagonian dust inputs, warming and acidification on the growth, composition and production of phytoplankton assemblages in the Polar Frontal Zone (PFZ) and the High-Nutrient Low-Chlorophyll (HNLC) region of the Indian sector of the SO during the austral summer 2022. Natural phytoplankton communities were incubated for 5-day under 4 scenarios (present and future conditions, and 2 intermediate scenarios). In the PFZ, +3°C and acidification stimulated the growth of phytoplankton, mainly cyanobacteria, while intensified dust inputs alone did not have notable impact. Conversely, in HNLC waters, the addition of Fe-dust alone increased the total chlorophyll <i>a</i> of diatoms (mainly <i>F. kerguelensis</i>), whereas the negative effect of acidification and +3°C counteracted the positive impact of dust input on the diatoms. In these waters, future conditions benefited smaller species (haptophytes and cyanobacteria). The net particulate organic carbon production (POC) was also unaltered by future conditions, suggesting that primary production may not change in the future SO. However the increase in the length and number of long-chain diatoms under future HNLC conditions may indicate that POC export could intensify in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005762","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144214005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-06-04DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005776
Wenhao Dong, Ming Zhao, Lucas Harris, Kai-Yuan Cheng, Linjiong Zhou, V. Ramaswamy
{"title":"Response of Global Mesoscale Convective Systems to Increased CO2 and Uniform SST Warming in a Global Storm-Resolving Model","authors":"Wenhao Dong, Ming Zhao, Lucas Harris, Kai-Yuan Cheng, Linjiong Zhou, V. Ramaswamy","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005776","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005776","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are critical components of global energy and water cycles and significantly contribute to extreme weather events. However, projecting future MCS behavior remains challenging due to the limitations of regional models and the inadequate representation of MCSs in coarser climate models. In this study, we use GFDL's global storm-resolving model (GSRM), X-SHiELD, to explore the response of global MCSs to both increased sea surface temperatures (SST) and elevated CO<sub>2</sub> levels using three sets of unique two-year-long warming simulations. We find that SST warming leads to an increase in MCS occurrence over ocean regions while reducing it over land, whereas elevated CO<sub>2</sub> results in an overall increase over ocean and land. When SST and CO<sub>2</sub> increases are combined, their impacts on MCS changes are generally additive. Using stepwise multiple linear regression, we identify the key environmental drivers of these changes across five MCS hotspots, highlighting the regional variability in MCS responses. Furthermore, MCS-associated precipitation and its contribution to total rainfall are shaped by changes in both MCS frequency and the precipitation intensity within each event. By utilizing the explicit MCS-resolving capabilities of GSRMs, this study provides critical insights into future changes in MCS characteristics and their implications for global precipitation patterns.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005776","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144213813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-06-04DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005313
C. Bracken, N. Voisin, K. Mongird, C. D. Burleyson, K. Oikonomou
{"title":"Intensifying Renewable Energy Droughts in the Western U.S. Amid Evolving Infrastructure and Climate","authors":"C. Bracken, N. Voisin, K. Mongird, C. D. Burleyson, K. Oikonomou","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005313","url":null,"abstract":"<p>If renewable energy resources continue to become a larger part of the generation mix in the United States (U.S.), so does the potential impact of prolonged periods of low wind and solar generation, known as variable renewable energy (VRE) droughts. In such a future, naturally occurring VRE droughts need to be evaluated for their potential impact on grid reliability. This study is the first of its kind to examine the impacts of compound VRE energy droughts in the Western U.S. across a range of potential future climate and infrastructure scenarios. We find that compound VRE drought severity may increase significantly in the future, primarily due to the dramatic increase in wind and solar generation needed in some future infrastructure scenarios. We find that in our future climate scenario, the variability of energy drought severity increases, which has implications for sizing energy storage necessary for mitigating drought events. We also examine the spatial patterns of compound VRE drought events that effect multiple regions of the grid simultaneously. These co-occurring events have distinct spatial patterns depending on the season. We observed overall fewer connected events in the future with the combined effect of potential climate and infrastructure changes, although in the fall we observe a climate-induced shift toward events which impact more regions simultaneously.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005313","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144214003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Increasing Mosquito Abundance Under Global Warming","authors":"Gokul Nair, Hong-Yi Li, Jon Schwenk, Kaitlyn Martinez, Carrie Manore, Chonggang Xu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005629","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mosquitoes are a key virus vector that poses significant health threats globally, affecting 700 million individuals and causing 1 million deaths annually. Accurately predicting mosquito abundance and dispersion remains a challenge. Complex interactions between mosquito dynamics and various environmental factors, notably hydrology, contribute to this challenge. Existing models typically focus on precipitation and temperature and often overlook further impacts of hydrological variables within mosquito modeling. In this study, we developed an artificial intelligence-based model for mosquito dynamics, explicitly accounting for different hydrological variables, such as precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow. Using Toronto, Canada, as a case study, we identified causal relationships between changes in mosquito populations, hydrological factors, vegetation (e.g., leaf area index), and climate variables (e.g., daylight length, precipitation, and temperature). We embedded these relationships into a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network Model capable of accurately detecting mosquito dynamics across annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales. The LSTM is able to explain, on average, approximately 40% of the variance in the observed mosquito abundance data. Using the calibrated model, we predicted that the summer season mosquito abundance would increase by ∼16% and ∼19% under an intermediate greenhouse emission scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5, and a high greenhouse emission scenario, SSP5-8.5, respectively. We expect that this model can serve as a valuable tool and inform science-based decisions affecting mosquito dynamics and public health. It can also build a foundation for future risk analysis at the regional and larger scales.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005629","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144197214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-06-03DOI: 10.1029/2025EF005976
Jing Wang, Weiqi Zhou, Timon McPhearson, Elizabeth M. Cook, Pablo Herreros-Cantis, Jing Liu
{"title":"Socio-Ecological Impacts of the Investment of Urban Nature in Heat Mitigation for Two Megacities","authors":"Jing Wang, Weiqi Zhou, Timon McPhearson, Elizabeth M. Cook, Pablo Herreros-Cantis, Jing Liu","doi":"10.1029/2025EF005976","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF005976","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cities are increasingly adapting green interventions meant to enhance climate resilience, given their capacity to provide numerous ecosystem services (ES). Yet, little is known about ecological and social impacts of such interventions in the context of socio-ecological framework and environmental justice. Here, we used a quantitative and spatial analytical approach to assess the changes of urban greenspace (UG) and examine the equity of changes in ES supply and demand across demographic and socioeconomic groups in Beijing and NYC between 2010 and 2017. Results showed that previously existing green space and its expansion were unevenly distributed across districts. High-income districts in NYC had high green cover and experienced the highest increase of UG, in contrast to high green cover in areas with low population density and the greatest increase of UG in high-income areas for Beijing, respectively. The inequitable distribution of UG resulted in a high level of mismatch in supply demand of ES, revealing a pattern of distributional ecological injustice within city. We also found more ecological supply was provided in the areas having less vulnerability, indicating that social vulnerability remained in a lower greenspace exposure after greening implementation in both cities. Our study contributes to a better understanding on how the dynamics of urban greenspace impact urban climate injustices, and provides new insights for critical urban adaptation interventions or practice on shaping ecological injustice.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF005976","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144197213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-06-03DOI: 10.1029/2025EF005987
Xiaoqing Peng, Xuanjia Li, Rong Wang, Oliver W. Frauenfeld, Hengxing Luo, Panpan Wang, Chen Yang, Gubu Qiumo
{"title":"Warming From Land Use and Land Cover Change Associated With Economic Growth in the Permafrost Regions of the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Xiaoqing Peng, Xuanjia Li, Rong Wang, Oliver W. Frauenfeld, Hengxing Luo, Panpan Wang, Chen Yang, Gubu Qiumo","doi":"10.1029/2025EF005987","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF005987","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate warming has resulted in permafrost degradation, leading to land use and land cover changes (LULCC). However, the impacts of LULCC on permafrost and local economies has not been quantified. Here, we analyze air and soil temperatures with gross domestic product per capita as associated with the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of LULCC using the CMIP6 experiments and a temperature-growth rate equation. Air temperature increased by 0.04 K due to biogeophysical processes and 0.23 K from biogeochemical processes, with corresponding soil temperature rises of 0.05 and 0.20 K, respectively. Warming from LULCC is accelerating and could result in economic growth, with a cumulative increase in gross domestic product per capita of $24,000 from biogeophysical effects, and about $470,000 from biogeochemical effects for 1995–2014. Additionally, spatial economic growth patterns indicate increases from south to north, with decreasing economic inequality. These findings could benefit the development or management policies of the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF005987","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144197318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Crop Model Ensemble Averaging: A Large But Underappreciated Uncertainty Source for Global Crop Yield Projections Under Climate Change","authors":"Xiaomeng Yin, Guoyong Leng, Jiali Qiu, Xiaoyong Liao, Shengzhi Huang, Jian Peng","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005900","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005900","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using an ensemble of crop models have been encouraged for global crop yield projections, which would, however, introduce additional uncertainty from the choice of ensemble averaging methods. Here, we use seven ensemble averaging methods including simple average, regression, Support Vector Regressor, Bayesian model average (BMA), Random Forest (RF), Artificial neural network (ANN) and Long-short term memory to derive the ensemble mean of eight process-based crop models for global maize yield projections. Results show that the choice of ensemble averaging methods has a large impact on the projection of long-term mean yield and year-to-year yield variability, with a range of −19.79%–16.62% and −47.92%–55.39% for the globe, respectively. Regionally, the largest uncertainties from the choice of ensemble averaging methods are observed in Indonesia and Canada. Further uncertainty decomposition analysis shows that ensemble averaging methods contributes to 39%–87% of total uncertainties for global yield projections, which is even higher than climate models. These results imply that although using an ensemble of crop models is valuable for informing risk-based policy-makings, how we choose to combine and derive the best estimates of crop model ensembles has large influence on the assessment outcomes. This study highlights an important but not well recognized uncertainty source for global yield predictions which arises from the choice of ensemble averaging methods.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005900","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144179014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-05-31DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005467
Md Yunus Naseri, Grant Bernosky, Peter W. Mayer, Landon T. Marston
{"title":"Patterns and Predictors of Residential Indoor Water Use Across Major US Cities","authors":"Md Yunus Naseri, Grant Bernosky, Peter W. Mayer, Landon T. Marston","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005467","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005467","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates residential indoor water consumption variability across 39 US cities using data from 26,441 single-family smart water meters. Employing functional data analysis and mixed-effects random forest, we identified distinct usage patterns across city clusters, with 13 high and 6 low water-using cities (all in coastal California) differing significantly from 20 medium water-using cities. Shower and toilet use were primary drivers of indoor use differences between clusters, influenced by both behavioral and fixture efficiency factors. The presence of appliances, certain household features, and weather also affect indoor water use, with varying influence on indoor water use across clusters. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of state-level water efficiency interventions and emphasize the importance of considering both behavioral factors and appliance efficiency in conservation strategies, providing valuable insights for targeted water demand management in urban areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005467","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144185886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-05-31DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005335
Nicholas Cohn, Dylan Anderson
{"title":"Projecting the Longevity of Coastal Foredunes Under Stochastic Meteorological and Oceanographic Forcing","authors":"Nicholas Cohn, Dylan Anderson","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005335","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005335","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Coastal foredunes serve as a critical buffer between the ocean and beach-adjacent infrastructure, yet these features are at increasing risk of destruction from future storms and changes in sea level. Quantifying potential future hazards to dunes, which are influenced by both erosional wave-driven and accretional wind-driven processes, is complicated by an inability to forecast the exact sequencing and magnitude of future oceanographic and meteorological forcings. Here we use a stochastic weather emulator capable of generating time series of wind and wave properties to force a reduced complexity morphologic model to assess potential accretional and erosional dune volume changes over the next century. Stable beaches with low shoreline change rates are predicted to have net accretional dunes over the next century on average. Inclusion of background beach erosion rates and sea level changes instead drives more frequent net volumetric dune erosion. At decadal scales, volume changes of the dune are shown to be dominated by the magnitude of shoreline change rate in locations that are rapidly retreating. For stable and mildly eroding shorelines (<<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mspace></mspace>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $ sim $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> −0.3 m/yr), both shoreline changes and changes in the still water level influence timescales of dune destruction. Sets of probabilistic simulations are used to show that gradual wind-driven sediment gains can compensate for episodic wave-driven losses over the long term. However, in the case of higher sea levels, more frequent dune collision results in less time for dune recovery in between major storms in which case tipping points in future dune states can occur.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005335","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144179013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-05-31DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005564
Lifeng Zhang, Daniel R. Schlaepfer, Zhiguang Chen, Zhongkuan Liu, Zhenyu Liu, Song Gu, William K. Lauenroth
{"title":"Assessing Water Source Stability in the Three River Source Region: A Comprehensive 35-Year Analysis","authors":"Lifeng Zhang, Daniel R. Schlaepfer, Zhiguang Chen, Zhongkuan Liu, Zhenyu Liu, Song Gu, William K. Lauenroth","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005564","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005564","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Terrestrial ecosystem water balance refers to the state between precipitation inputs, and outputs via evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge and runoff. The Three River Source Region (TRSR) is known as the “water tower of Asia” and is an important water source region for much of southeast Asia. Spatial and temporal distributions of water balance across the TRSR have been affected by recent changing climatic conditions. However, the status and variation of water balance under the influence of environmental factors remain unclear. We employed SOILWAT2, a daily time step ecosystem water model, along with 35 years of climate data from 29 meteorological stations to characterize the hydrological dynamics of the region. Our results revealed that 15 of the sites exhibited evidence of a net water source (precipitation > actual evapotranspiration) between 1981 and 2015. These stations were predominantly located at intermediate elevations (3,400–4,100 m) and low latitudes (<34°N), while stations at lower and higher elevations as well as higher latitudes were not sources because of moisture limitations by a dry climate. In contrast to a strong spatial pattern, we found no obvious temporal trend of the net water source. The interannual and seasonal variability of the net water source is dependent on the temporal fluctuations in potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. We therefore conclude that there is an elevation and latitude dominated spatial pattern of the water balance on the TRSR, with important implications for the availability of water resources.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005564","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144179011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}