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Global Changes in Precipitation Concentration Through Consecutive Event Organization 连续事件组织下的全球降水浓度变化
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-09-30 DOI: 10.1029/2026EF008471
Jiajia Su, Chiyuan Miao, Jinlong Hu, Jiachen Ji, Yunmeng Zhao, Jiaojiao Gou
{"title":"Global Changes in Precipitation Concentration Through Consecutive Event Organization","authors":"Jiajia Su,&nbsp;Chiyuan Miao,&nbsp;Jinlong Hu,&nbsp;Jiachen Ji,&nbsp;Yunmeng Zhao,&nbsp;Jiaojiao Gou","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008471","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008471","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global warming is reshaping precipitation extremes and increasing temporal rainfall unevenness, yet precipitation unevenness has rarely been quantified at the scale of consecutive precipitation events. Using daily observations from 19,183 gauge stations worldwide during 1980–2022, we defined WE50 as the total duration of the consecutive wettest precipitation events required to deliver 50% of annual precipitation, and WE50_event as the number of selected events contributing to that half. The global mean WE50 is 27.8 days, and WE50_event is 9.4 events, with Europe exhibiting the largest values. Trend analyses show that WE50 decreases significantly at 45.7% of global stations, whereas WE50_event changes are generally weak. A decomposition further indicates that the global WE50 decline is largely attributable to shorter durations of consecutive precipitation events, with comparable contributions observed in Europe and South America, whereas regional differences emerge in the contributions of precipitation amount, event intensity, and duration.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008471","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global Inequality and Potential Trade-Offs in Community Resilience to Compound Climate Extremes 全球不平等和社区应对复合极端气候的潜在权衡
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-09-29 DOI: 10.1029/2026EF008153
Yinyi Lin, Hongsheng Zhang, Shan Wei, Peng Gong, Zhenci Xu
{"title":"Global Inequality and Potential Trade-Offs in Community Resilience to Compound Climate Extremes","authors":"Yinyi Lin,&nbsp;Hongsheng Zhang,&nbsp;Shan Wei,&nbsp;Peng Gong,&nbsp;Zhenci Xu","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008153","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008153","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The resilience of human society to multiple climate disasters is crucial for supporting sustainable development progress and promoting human well-being in an era of climate change. Yet little research has attempted to assess global spatial-explicit capacity of communities to deal with compound extreme climate disasters simultaneously, and the relationship between resilience to different climate extremes remains unknown. Here we presented a high-resolution assessment of community resilience to compound climate extremes simultaneously by developing the Community-Climate Resilience Index (CCRI) using the multisource satellite remote sensing data sets, the geocoded disaster records and fuzzy logic model. We further explored interrelationships among resilience to major climate extremes, that is, resilience to floods (Resilience<sup>flood</sup>), resilience to extreme temperature (Resilience<sup>ET</sup>) and resilience to droughts (Resilience<sup>drought</sup>). The results indicated western Europe showed higher CCRI while South America, Africa and Oceania showed lower CCRI. Urban areas showed higher CCRI but lower scaling effects comparing with rural areas with lower CCRI level and higher scaling effects. Most of the regions showed positive associations among resilience to different climate extremes, but there were also negative associations between resilience in some areas, especially located in suburban and rural Sub-Saharan Africa. Our analysis suggested leveraging integrated and coordinated risk management for resilience capacity building to multiple climate extremes in vulnerable areas and on a local and global scale.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008153","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149068404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatially Explicit Biochar Deployment Enhances Food Security and Advances Carbon Neutrality in China's Staple Crops 空间显性生物炭部署提高粮食安全,推进中国主要作物碳中和
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-09-28 DOI: 10.1029/2026EF008308
Ruiyu Bi, Yawen Huang, Wei Ren, Zhaoqiang Han, Jinyang Wang, Shuwei Liu, Jianwen Zou
{"title":"Spatially Explicit Biochar Deployment Enhances Food Security and Advances Carbon Neutrality in China's Staple Crops","authors":"Ruiyu Bi,&nbsp;Yawen Huang,&nbsp;Wei Ren,&nbsp;Zhaoqiang Han,&nbsp;Jinyang Wang,&nbsp;Shuwei Liu,&nbsp;Jianwen Zou","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008308","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008308","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Biochar offers significant potential to improve soil quality, enhance crop productivity, and alleviate environmental risks, all of which are central to sustainable food systems under global change. However, realizing these benefits at scale requires strategic, spatially explicit deployment that considers complex soil-crop-climate-biochar interactions and socioeconomic constraints. Here, we developed an objective-oriented Biochar Application Priority Index (BAPI) for China's major staple crops using spatially explicit multi-criteria analysis. We identified high-priority zones that deliver multiple benefits for crop yield enhancement, soil carbon sequestration, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation, covering 47.1% of upland maize and wheat croplands and 74.3% of rice areas. Guided by the BAPI, approximately 180 Mt yr<sup>−1</sup> of biochar supply is sequentially allocated to higher-priority areas, resulting in yield increases of 16.2–41.6 Mt yr<sup>−1</sup>, soil carbon sequestration of 311–326 Mt CO<sub>2</sub> yr<sup>−1</sup>, and GHG mitigation of −2.82–8.42 Mt CO<sub>2</sub>-eq yr<sup>−1</sup> under different scenarios. A strategy employing multi-objective weighted gradient application rates can achieve substantial co-benefits for crop yield and climate change mitigation, while delivering economic returns of US$315–582 ha<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>. Our work highlights how targeted biochar deployment can help China achieve synergistic progress in food security, agricultural sustainability, and carbon neutrality.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008308","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149068240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Systematic Review of Urban Form: Knowledge and Opportunities 城市形态的系统回顾:知识与机遇
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-09-26 DOI: 10.1029/2026EF008570
Jing Xie, Hongfu Chen, Zilang Cheng, Hongzhang Lin, Desheng Xue
{"title":"A Systematic Review of Urban Form: Knowledge and Opportunities","authors":"Jing Xie,&nbsp;Hongfu Chen,&nbsp;Zilang Cheng,&nbsp;Hongzhang Lin,&nbsp;Desheng Xue","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008570","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008570","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding global research trajectories in urban form is critical for sustainable urbanization, yet a comprehensive synthesis is lacking. Evaluating 6,147 publications from Web of Science and Scopus (1999–2024) using bibliometric methods, this study maps the evolution, core themes, and geographical distribution of the field. Results show rapid expansion from traditional built environment topics to pressing challenges like climate change, sustainability, and resilience. However, data reveals a stark geographical divide, with production concentrated in developed nations while the Global South—especially Africa and South America—remains underrepresented. Additionally, weak integration among major themes indicates limited interdisciplinary cohesion. Addressing these geographical and thematic silos by explicitly embedding urban form research within the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is vital to supporting inclusive, resilient, and sustainable future urban systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008570","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149048396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
One History, Many Futures: Exploring Climate-Driven Changes in Estuarine Water Temperature and Salinity (Sado Estuary Case Study) 一个历史,许多未来:探索气候驱动的河口水温和盐度变化(佐渡河口案例研究)
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-09-24 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007408
Beatriz Biguino, Humberto Pereira, João Miguel Dias, Joana P. C. Cruz, Ivan D. Haigh, Ana C. Brito
{"title":"One History, Many Futures: Exploring Climate-Driven Changes in Estuarine Water Temperature and Salinity (Sado Estuary Case Study)","authors":"Beatriz Biguino,&nbsp;Humberto Pereira,&nbsp;João Miguel Dias,&nbsp;Joana P. C. Cruz,&nbsp;Ivan D. Haigh,&nbsp;Ana C. Brito","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007408","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007408","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Although the future is uncertain, global projections point to a destabilization of estuarine ecosystems as a response to climate change, with important implications for coastal habitats and communities. However, the vulnerability of these systems to climate change varies regionally. Thus, it is crucial to fully understand the challenges that coastal populations and ecosystems will face. In this paper, Sado Estuary in Portugal was considered as a case study to predict future conditions of water temperature and salinity in a seasonality and trends assessment, using Delft3D model. We first evaluated the capacity of the model to reproduce past conditions, which helped to improve the understanding of changes over the last decades by overcoming the limitations of restricted in situ observational data. Then, future conditions were assessed under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios through to 2100. Results showed that Delft3D is very well suited to reproduce water properties in well-mixed estuaries such as the Sado, even showing a better performance than the satellite in retrieving the seasonality of the water temperature. The future is of warming conditions for the estuary (average of 0.109°C/decade and 0.275°C/decade, under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively), in line with the predicted global warming. The two different scenarios present opposite trends for salinity, mainly driven by differences in future conditions of river flow. This highlights the importance of climate forcing and environmental drivers in shaping future estuarine conditions and the applicability of the approach to comparable mesotidal, well-mixed systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007408","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149048260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Warming and Sea-Level Rise Transform Intertidal Sediment Thermal Dynamics 变暖和海平面上升改变了潮间带沉积物热动力学
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-09-24 DOI: 10.1029/2026EF008924
Qi Liu, Karline Soetaert, Herman de Munnik, Stanley Nmor, Lubos Polerecky
{"title":"Warming and Sea-Level Rise Transform Intertidal Sediment Thermal Dynamics","authors":"Qi Liu,&nbsp;Karline Soetaert,&nbsp;Herman de Munnik,&nbsp;Stanley Nmor,&nbsp;Lubos Polerecky","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008924","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008924","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Intertidal sediments are important hotspots in coastal ecology and biogeochemistry. Their function and ecology are strongly controlled by temperature, yet the impact of future climate warming and sea-level rise (SLR) on their thermal dynamics remains unquantified. Here we simulate present-day and future (2100) thermal dynamics of intertidal sediments under contrasting warming and SLR scenarios, using Oosterschelde (the Netherlands) as a representative model system. Although SLR-induced losses in intertidal area will remain minor, emersion times will be strongly reduced, shifting the system's thermal regulation from air-to water-dominated. Combined with climate warming, this will lead to systematically higher but less variable sediment temperatures, with extreme warm events during summer intensifying in frequency (from 5% to up to 25%), duration, and spatial extent. This previously unrecognized restructuring of thermal regimes in intertidal sediments has important implications for benthic organisms and biogeochemical fluxes, constraining habitat suitability and impacting nutrient cycles in coastal zones.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008924","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stage-Specific Associations Between Extreme Climate Events and Crop Failures Across China 中国极端气候事件与作物歉收的阶段性关联
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-09-22 DOI: 10.1029/2026EF008789
Shuyuan Huang, Yujie Liu, Junjie Liu, Ermei Zhang, Jiahao Chen, Tao Pan
{"title":"Stage-Specific Associations Between Extreme Climate Events and Crop Failures Across China","authors":"Shuyuan Huang,&nbsp;Yujie Liu,&nbsp;Junjie Liu,&nbsp;Ermei Zhang,&nbsp;Jiahao Chen,&nbsp;Tao Pan","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008789","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008789","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Crop failures represent severe lower-tail risks to food security. However, their climate associations remain insufficiently quantified because localized severe losses are difficult to link to large-scale climate variability. Using station-based crop yield, phenology and daily meteorological observations across China from 1981 to 2018, we developed an event-level diagnostic framework to detect and cluster crop failures and evaluate their statistical associations with temperature-precipitation extremes during the vegetative growth period (VGP) and reproductive growth period (RGP). Crop failures were defined as LOWESS-detrended yield anomalies below crop-specific 10th percentiles and clustered in a longitude-latitude-time matrix. Detected crop failures affected 70.0%–100.0% of monitored crop sites across crop systems and contributed 48.8%–54.4% of cumulative negative yield anomalies. Although most events were spatially localized, crop-site failures showed a clear synchronization peak in the early 1990s. After 2000, background occurrence rates of single and compound extremes during VGP each increased by 1.4 percentage points, whereas corresponding rates during RGP decreased by 3.1 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively. Under the nominal <i>p</i> &lt; 0.10 screening criterion, 22.7%–56.0% of VGP failures and 14.8%–56.0% of RGP failures showed candidate associations with at least one temperature–precipitation extreme. Candidate associations with single extremes were generally more prevalent than those with compound extremes. Sensitivity analyses further showed that low temperature and low precipitation produced the most stable high-loss signals across crops, stages, FDR subsets and alternative processing choices. These findings support event-level, phenology-aware diagnostics for resolving crop-specific climate risks, identifying critical growth-stage windows, and improving agricultural risk assessment and adaptation strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008789","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149047964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integrating Social Vulnerability Index With Potential Upstream Iodine Effects on Downstream Community Water Systems 将社会脆弱性指数与上游碘对下游社区水系统的潜在影响相结合
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-09-20 DOI: 10.1029/2026EF008834
Emma Robert, Peleg Kremer, Kelly D. Good
{"title":"Integrating Social Vulnerability Index With Potential Upstream Iodine Effects on Downstream Community Water Systems","authors":"Emma Robert,&nbsp;Peleg Kremer,&nbsp;Kelly D. Good","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008834","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008834","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Disinfection byproducts (DBPs) form when organic matter and other precursors such as iodine species react with chemical disinfectants during drinking water treatment. Iodinated-DBPs are particularly toxic but unmonitored and unregulated in the United States. Previous research established a discharge-intake flow index (DIFI) based on the relationship of possible upstream iodine discharges on downstream drinking water sources. Considering which community water systems (CWS) and their associated populations served can enhance understanding of potential effects from iodine discharges; therefore, DIFI values from 1,657 surface water-supplied CWSs were integrated with the Centers for Disease Control's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) at census tract levels. Co-vulnerable systems were defined as those exceeding median values for both DIFI and SVI. The four SVI themes and overall SVI were analyzed. Co-vulnerable systems in the SVI 3 theme (racial/ethnic minority status) serve 39.3 million people across 364 CWSs—39% of the studied population served but only 22% of systems. Over 50% of co-vulnerable systems for SVI 3 were in Southern U.S. hydrologic regions (HUC03, 06, 08, 11, 12). Additionally, 121 CWSs serving 7.5 million people showed consistent co-vulnerability across all four SVI themes. Geographic clustering revealed concentrations in the South, Northeast, and Great Lakes regions, with some hydrologic regions showing &gt;25% of systems as co-vulnerable. Incorporating social vulnerability data revealed distinct geographic patterns, with disproportionate potential effects on minority communities in the Southern U.S. These findings enable targeted prioritization of monitoring and regulatory efforts and address environmental justice concerns in drinking water quality management.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008834","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149047925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Observation-Based Constraints on Future Runoff Projections for Large Reservoirs 大型水库未来径流预测的观测约束
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-09-20 DOI: 10.1029/2026EF008106
Haining Jiang, Kaiwen Wang, Jiamiao Yu, Xinyu Li, Xiaomang Liu
{"title":"Observation-Based Constraints on Future Runoff Projections for Large Reservoirs","authors":"Haining Jiang,&nbsp;Kaiwen Wang,&nbsp;Jiamiao Yu,&nbsp;Xinyu Li,&nbsp;Xiaomang Liu","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008106","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Exploring the future evolution of runoff within reservoir drainage areas and its dominant drivers provides insights for future reservoir management. We combine a georeferenced reservoir data set with historical runoff simulations and future projections from an ensemble of Global Hydrological Models (GHMs) to investigate the long-term runoff evolution across 913 drainage areas of large reservoirs in China. To reduce uncertainties in the GHM ensemble, we adopt an ensemble best approach, which outperforms the ensemble mean and median. Using this approach, we incorporate observational constraints to project three aspects of runoff-related variations: trends in inter-annual magnitude, inter-annual variability, and intra-annual variability. A total of 337–438 reservoirs are projected to exhibit decreasing inter-annual magnitude, weakening inter-annual variability, and enhancing intra-annual variability during the historical period, while increasing magnitude and enhancing variability under future scenarios. These three aspects of runoff-related variations do not occur synchronously within the same reservoir groups, highlighting the need to consider each reservoir individually when developing effective management strategies. Attribution analyses indicate that anthropogenic climate change predominates over natural climate variability and human water and land management, serving as the dominant driver of runoff-related variations. Although the ensemble best approach performs well at large spatial scales, uncertainties remain at the individual reservoir level, as relative errors exceed ±50% for 90–259 reservoirs in drylands and cold regions. To promote the reliability of future projections, we advocate continued efforts to improve GHM mathematical structures and parameterization schemes, alongside the integration of additional in situ observations for model calibration.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008106","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149048022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Capturing Unseen Spatial Heat Extremes Through Dependence-Aware Generative Modeling 通过依赖感知生成建模捕获看不见的空间极端热
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2026-09-19 DOI: 10.1029/2026EF008861
Xinyue Liu, Xiao Peng, Shuyue Yan, Yuntian Chen, Dongxiao Zhang, Zhixiao Niu, Hui-Min Wang, Xiaogang He
{"title":"Capturing Unseen Spatial Heat Extremes Through Dependence-Aware Generative Modeling","authors":"Xinyue Liu,&nbsp;Xiao Peng,&nbsp;Shuyue Yan,&nbsp;Yuntian Chen,&nbsp;Dongxiao Zhang,&nbsp;Zhixiao Niu,&nbsp;Hui-Min Wang,&nbsp;Xiaogang He","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008861","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008861","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Observed records of climate extremes provide an incomplete view of plausible hazards, missing “unseen” events beyond historical experience. Ignoring spatial dependence further underestimates hazards striking multiple locations simultaneously. We introduce DeepX-GAN (Dependence-Enhanced Embedding for Physical eXtremes—Generative Adversarial Network), a deep generative model that explicitly captures the spatial structure of rare extremes. Its zero-shot generalizability enables the simulation of statistically plausible extremes beyond the observed record, evaluated against long climate model large-ensemble simulations. We define two unseen types: direct-hit extremes that affect the target, and near-miss extremes that narrowly miss. These unrealized events reveal hidden risks and can either prompt proactive adaptation or reinforce a false sense of resilience. Applying DeepX-GAN to the Middle East and North Africa shows that the probability of unseen heat extremes is disproportionately distributed toward countries with high vulnerability and low socioeconomic readiness. Using a representative climate simulation, we demonstrate how future warming could expand and shift these hazards, creating persistent hotspots in Northwest Africa and the Arabian Peninsula and new hotspots in Central Africa, necessitating spatially adaptive resilience planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008861","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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