Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Targeted Synergistic Priorities for Conserving Biodiversity, Carbon, and Water on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Chongchong Ye,&nbsp;Shuai Wang,&nbsp;Xutong Wu,&nbsp;Tien Ming Lee,&nbsp;Yi Wang,&nbsp;Fangli Wei,&nbsp;Yanxu Liu,&nbsp;Bin Sun,&nbsp;Li Yang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004802","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004802","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) highlights developing effective targets to halt and reverse the biodiversity and ecosystem services crisis. Although biodiversity and ecosystem services are tightly interlinked and interact in complex ways, a uniform global or national target has long ignored their interdependencies and uneven distribution to guide region- or ecoregion-specific planning. Here, we use a flexible and stepwise approach, incorporating high conservation values of biodiversity, carbon and water and their complex interactions, to identify three targeted priority areas at regional and ecological jurisdictions on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). We find that 49% of the targeted priority areas could effectively protect about 60% of biodiversity, carbon, and water at the ecoregion scale. However, at the regional scale, 48% of the targeted priority areas have the potential to conserve up to 70% of biodiversity, carbon and water. Although the QTP has achieved the target three of the Kunming-Montreal GBF (i.e., to protect 30% of areas), more than 75% and 70% of priority areas remain unprotected at the regional and ecoregion scales, respectively. More importantly, over 55% of the unprotected priority areas at the regional scale are under moderate to high human pressure. Our spatially explicit insights demonstrate the importance of expanding existing protected areas on the QTP, while highlighting the potential of targeted conservation initiatives at the subnational level to ensure the Kunming-Montreal GBF in a more efficient manner.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004802","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Thirstwaves: Prolonged Periods of Agricultural Exposure to Extreme Atmospheric Evaporative Demand for Water","authors":"M. S. Kukal,&nbsp;M. Hobbins","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004870","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004870","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global atmospheric evaporative demand has increased, impacting agricultural productivity and water use. Traditionally, trend assessments have been limited to total evaporative demand, overlooking shifts in daily extremes, which are meaningful for agrohydrological outcomes yet largely unknown. Here, using a fully physical metric of evaporative demand, that is, standardized short crop reference evapotranspiration, we introduce the concept of thirstwaves—prolonged periods of extremely high evaporative demand—and analyze their characteristics during 1981–2021 growing seasons for the conterminous US. Findings show that long-term mean spatial patterns demonstrated by thirstwave characteristics do not follow that of total or mean evaporative demand. Weighted for cropland area harvested, thirstwave intensity, duration, and frequency have increased by 0.06 mm d⁻¹ decade⁻¹, 0.10 days decade⁻¹, and 0.39 events decade⁻¹, respectively during 1981–2021. Statistically significant trends appear across 17%, 7%, and 23% of cropland area for intensity, frequency, and duration. Not only have thirstwaves increased in severity, but the likelihood of no thirstwaves occurring during the growing season has significantly decreased. Our work proposes a novel metric to describe periods of extremely elevated evaporative demand and presents a systematic analysis of such conditions historically for US croplands.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004870","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Warming Has Imbalance Impact on Soil Nitrogen Transformation Rates","authors":"Di Zhao,&nbsp;Jie Qiu,&nbsp;Zhen Fan,&nbsp;Chaopu Ti,&nbsp;Zelin Huang,&nbsp;Xiaoyuan Yan,&nbsp;Yongqiu Xia","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004756","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004756","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global warming is projected to significantly influence soil nitrogen (N) transformations, yet a comprehensive understanding of the spatial distribution of these effects and the underlying driving factors at a large scale remains limited. This study employs a Random Forest model to develop nonlinear temperature sensitivity (<i>Q</i>₁₀) models for soil nitrogen mineralization (N_min), nitrification (N_nit), and denitrification (N_de) based on a data set comprising 1,131 records from across China. Our results revealed variations in <i>Q</i>₁₀ values across different N transformation processes and ecosystem types, with an average of 1.96 for N_min, 1.90 for N_nit, and 2.19 for N_de. Higher <i>Q</i>₁₀ values (&gt;2) for N transformation rates were observed in the Northern and Western China, which exhibited a geographical spatial pattern that changed with longitude, latitude, and altitude. Soil substrate availability, N input, soil pH and climatic variables accounted for most of the variation in <i>Q</i>₁₀ among diverse ecosystem types and regions on a large scale. In projected future warming scenarios, it is expected that N transformation rates could increase by between 0.001 and 1.87 times under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 from 2040 to 2100, compared to 2030. These findings deepen our understanding of the large-scale spatial variations and controlling factors of N transformation rates in response to global warming, providing a robust foundation for more informed ecosystem management and environmental policy decisions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004756","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Process Synchrony a Key Control of Resilience in a Subarctic Freshwater System","authors":"C. Spence,&nbsp;J. M. Galloway,&nbsp;N. Hedstrom,&nbsp;S. V. Kokelj,&nbsp;S. A. Kokelj,&nbsp;P. Muise,&nbsp;B. W. Newton,&nbsp;R. T. Patterson,&nbsp;M. F. J. Pisaric,&nbsp;G. T. Swindles","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005518","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005518","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate-induced changes in streamflow and biogeochemistry are occurring across the northern circumpolar region but several key unknowns include (a) the mechanisms responsible among landscapes and permafrost conditions, (b) the resilience and precariousness of hydrological and biogeochemical regimes. Even though it is among the largest physio-climatic regions of the northern circumpolar, these knowledge gaps are acute in the Taiga Shield. This research aimed to determine if hydrology and biogeochemistry regimes of the Taiga Shield have been resilient to recent climate warming. We apply a recently developed framework of hydrological resilience that shows the first 20 years of the 21st century were the warmest and wettest of the previous 300 years. These conditions altered the catchment such that &gt;50% of the water year streamflow now occurs during winter, shifting the catchment from a nival to a cold season pluvial hydrological regime. This regime shift has significantly changed the fraction of inorganic nitrogen export, but insufficiently to shift the biogeochemical regime. Sustained multi-year physical process synchronization was the cause of these changes. This behavior is not well simulated by existing Earth system models. The tipping point in local mean annual air temperatures was crossed near the turn of the century well below the warming threshold of the Paris Accord. A one-size-fits-all approach to mitigation targets is not effective at preventing all shifts in Earth systems. This is important to consider as regime changes in small hydrological systems have the potential to trigger cascading effects in the larger catchments to which they contribute.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005518","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties","authors":"Kieran Murphy,&nbsp;Denisse Fierro-Arcos,&nbsp;Tyler Rohr,&nbsp;David Green,&nbsp;Camilla Novaglio,&nbsp;Katherine Baker,&nbsp;Kelly Ortega-Cisneros,&nbsp;Tyler D. Eddy,&nbsp;Cheryl S. Harrison,&nbsp;Simeon L. Hill,&nbsp;Patrick Eskuche-Keith,&nbsp;Camila Cataldo-Mendez,&nbsp;Colleen M. Petrik,&nbsp;Matthew Pinkerton,&nbsp;Paul Spence,&nbsp;Ilaria Stollberg,&nbsp;Roshni C. Subramaniam,&nbsp;Rowan Trebilco,&nbsp;Vivitskaia Tulloch,&nbsp;Juliano Palacios-Abrantes,&nbsp;Sophie Bestley,&nbsp;Daniele Bianchi,&nbsp;Philip Boyd,&nbsp;Pearse J. Buchanan,&nbsp;Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz,&nbsp;Marta Coll,&nbsp;Stuart Corney,&nbsp;Samik Datta,&nbsp;Jason D. Everett,&nbsp;Romain Forestier,&nbsp;Elizabeth A. Fulton,&nbsp;Vianney Guibourd de Luzinais,&nbsp;Ryan Heneghan,&nbsp;Julia G. Mason,&nbsp;Olivier Maury,&nbsp;Clive R. McMahon,&nbsp;Eugene Murphy,&nbsp;Anthony J. Richardson,&nbsp;Derek P. Tittensor,&nbsp;Scott Spillias,&nbsp;Jeroen Steenbeek,&nbsp;Devi Veytia,&nbsp;Julia Blanchard","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004849","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004849","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected changes in total consumer biomass from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain future for the Southern Ocean, indicating the need for a region-specific ensemble. A large source of model uncertainty originates from the Earth system models used to force FishMIP models, particularly future changes to lower trophic level biomass and sea-ice coverage. To build confidence in regional MEMs as ecosystem-based management tools in a changing climate that can better account for uncertainty, we propose the development of a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing to the FishMIP 2.0 regional model intercomparison initiative. One of the challenges hampering progress of regional MEM ensembles is achieving the balance of global standardised inputs with regional relevance. As a first step, we design a SOMEME simulation protocol, that builds on and extends the existing FishMIP framework, in stages that include: detailed skill assessment of climate forcing variables for Southern Ocean regions, extension of fishing forcing data to include whaling, and new simulations that assess ecological links to sea-ice processes in an ensemble of candidate regional MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments of urgently needed climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004849","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change on Heat Stress Under Relatively Dry and Wet Warm Conditions in a Semi-Arid Urban Environment","authors":"Francisco Salamanca-Palou,&nbsp;Gisel Guzman-Echavarría,&nbsp;Jennifer Vanos,&nbsp;Pope Moseley,&nbsp;Marisa Elena Domino,&nbsp;Matei Georgescu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004983","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004983","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article investigates the effect of urban expansion and climate change impacts on heat stress (HS) for Arizona's (AZ; USA) two largest urban agglomerations, the Phoenix and Tucson metropolitan areas, under relatively dry and moist warm conditions with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-urban modeling system. We dynamically downscale two contemporary summers, one dry and one moist, relatively to their respective seasonal-mean specific humidity across AZ. Urban expansion impacts on HS are assessed by performing two identical simulations for each contemporary summer using different land use-land cover representations: one simulation with the current urban landscape, and one simulation replaces the urban cover with the region's most representative MODIS vegetation type. Climate change impacts on HS are evaluated by performing four additional future simulations, two via dynamical downscaling of relatively dry conditions (one summer under the RCP8.5 and one summer under the RCP4.5 emissions pathways) and two of relatively moist conditions (one summer for each RCP pathway). The selection of future summers is based on their respective seasonal-mean specific humidity across AZ from an end-of-century analysis of 2086–2100. We characterize impacts on HS by examining changes in near-surface air temperature, Heat Index (HI), and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) across urban areas under dry and moist warm conditions. Our results demonstrate that climate change impacts on HS are not well captured by examining only the projected changes in air temperature and are dependent on the bioclimate index considered. Additionally, we apply a new human heat balance (HHB) approach to evaluate the number of hours per day that an acclimatized and non-acclimatized person would experience uncompensable HS and compare these results (with the number of hours per day) that we obtain when the HI and UTCI surpass commonly used thresholds considered “dangerous” and of “extreme heat stress”, respectively. The HI and UTCI overestimate the number of hours per day that a healthy, acclimatized person would experience uncompensable HS and underestimate dangerous HS for a non-acclimatized person under both dry and moist conditions, emphasizing that standard metrics may not produce the most informative physiological estimates of HS.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004983","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143688892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate Stabilisation Under Net Zero CO2 Emissions","authors":"Alexander Borowiak,&nbsp;Andrew D. King,&nbsp;Josephine R. Brown,&nbsp;Chris D. Jones,&nbsp;Michael Grose","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005678","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005678","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Under the Paris Agreement, signatories aim to limit the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this, many countries have made net zero greenhouse gas emissions targets, with the aim of halting global warming and stabilizing the climate. Here, we analyze the stability of global and local temperatures in an ensemble of simulations from the zero-emissions commitment Model Intercomparison Project, where CO₂ emissions are abruptly ceased. Our findings show that at both the global and local level stabilization does not occur immediately after net zero CO₂ emissions. The multi-model median (mean) global average temperature stabilizes after approximately 90 (124) years, with an inter-model range of 64–330 years. However, for some models, this may underestimate the actual time to become stable, as this is the end of the simulation. Seven models exhibited cooling post-emission cessation, with two of the models then warming after the initial cooling. One model gradually warmed through the entire simulation, while another had alternating cooling and warming. At the local level, responses varied significantly, with many models simulating the reversal of trends in some areas. Changes at the local level, at many locations, continue beyond the stabilization of global temperature and are not stable by the end of the simulations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005678","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143646112","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corporate Biodiversity and Water Impact and Risk: Seven Key Principles for Leveraging Insights From Satellite Remote Sensing","authors":"Leon T. Hauser,&nbsp;Alexander Damm,&nbsp;Maria J. Santos","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005474","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005474","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Amid unprecedented biodiversity loss and water scarcity, calls for corporate responsibility are becoming louder and have led to emerging non-financial disclosure frameworks with demanding data needs. While the role of satellite remote sensing (RS) is highly anticipated to address data needs and boost transparency, critical thought on what is feasible and how to strategically integrate its insights for ambitious corporate biodiversity and water disclosure is lagging behind. To address this, we propose applying a systems perspective to represent the complex, multi-scale interactions between biodiversity, water systems, and corporate operations, and to guide how to integrate RS contributions to analyze the full spectrum of impacts and risks—ranging from direct and concurrent to cascading, cumulative, and emergent. We highlight seven guiding (non-exhaustive) principles for leveraging satellite RS data to assess corporate biodiversity and water impacts and risks. This process requires an effective system boundary (1) set spatially, temporally, and process-wise. Within which, biodiversity and water's multi-dimensionality (2) needs to be addressed to monitor the spatio-temporal dynamics (3) that characterize ecosystem responses. To attribute risk and impact of detected changes, interactions need to be defined by causality (4) and directionality (5), and ultimately consider compound impacts (6) across commodities, supply chains and portfolios, as well as cross-system interactions (7), for example, between climate change, water and biodiversity. We review each of these principles and related challenges individually, providing a system theory definition, relevant RS capabilities, and research directions. Addressing these seven principles will be crucial to harness satellite RS's potential for comprehensive biodiversity and water disclosure for strong corporate accountability.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005474","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143632788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying Sources, Sinks and Mitigation of Macroplastic and Other River Debris: A Trash Balance Model","authors":"Todd Palmer,&nbsp;Trent Biggs,&nbsp;Ryoko Araki,&nbsp;Kian Bagheri,&nbsp;Hassan Davani,&nbsp;Rachel Downing,&nbsp;Sarah Hutmacher,&nbsp;Hilary K. McMillan","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005677","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005677","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mismanaged consumer plastics and other waste that enters a river system, known as riverine debris, is a pervasive problem in urban rivers with consequences for ecosystem health and human livelihood. A better understanding of the loading pathways, fluxes, and fate of this debris is necessary for more effective mitigation efforts, and to reduce ocean emissions that become marine debris. This study presents a novel framework for quantifying riverine debris using a holistic mass balance modeling approach, applied in the San Diego River, California, a regionally important river with a large, urban watershed. This framework quantifies urban riverine debris sources, sinks and transport dynamics at the watershed scale. The model integrates a community science data set of floodplain debris with a simple stormwater runoff model to account for debris loading and applies probabilistic transport functions to estimate ocean emissions. Our key finding is that most riverine debris in the San Diego River is not washed in through storm drains but is directly deposited in the floodplain (79%–92% of total debris), with homeless encampments the largest contributing factor (62%–75% of total debris). Ongoing cleanup efforts substantially reduce the debris accumulation rate: without these efforts, debris stored on the floodplain increases by up to 48%. However, despite cleanups debris continues to accumulate over time with the potential for increased ocean emissions in subsequent years, especially during years with large flood events. Our approach is transferable to other urban rivers to understand the fate and flux of local debris, and therefore to inform effective mitigation initiatives.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005677","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143629829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of Black Carbon on Photovoltaic and Wind Energy Potential Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways","authors":"Zhenming Ji,&nbsp;Guanying Chen","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004987","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004987","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With the ongoing growth in global demand for renewable energy, photovoltaic and wind energy play crucial roles in reducing carbon emissions and mitigating climate change. Meteorological factors such as surface solar radiation, temperature, and wind influence the photovoltaic potential (PV_POT) and wind energy potential (WEP). Black carbon aerosols (BC), with their strong capacity to absorb shortwave radiation, induce regional climate changes, underscore the non-negligible impact on PV_POT and WEP. This study utilizes the Community Earth System Model to project changes in PV_POT and WEP under shared socioeconomic pathways and their responses to BC. Results indicate that the model accurately delineated the spatial distribution and historical trends of five meteorological elements: wind speed, air temperature, surface solar radiation, surface pressure and surface specific humidity. In the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, both PV_POT and WEP exhibited remarkable regional and seasonal variations. In Western Europe, Canada, Tibetan Plateau, and most parts of eastern China, PV_POT is projected increase, while the induced BC enhances the increase in PV_POT on the Tibetan Plateau. Effects of BC on the annual trends of PV_POT vary across regions. Furthermore, the global average of both PV_POT and WEP is expected to increase, with BC strengthening the increase of PV_POT, but scenario differences exist in WEP. In the SSP245 scenario, BC will induce a global average PV_POT increase of 0.41 × 10⁻³ W/m² by 2100.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004987","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143629828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}