Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Comment on “Soaring Building Collapses in Southern Mediterranean Coasts: Hydroclimatic Drivers & Adaptive Landscape Mitigations” by Fouad et al.","authors":"M. Nasser Darwish","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006885","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006885","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Fouad et al. (2025), https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ef004883 highlight the effect of hydrodynamic drivers and their adverse effects on shoreline variation, soil, and building foundations. This is acknowledged and appreciated. However, the article's attempt to correlate hydroclimatic drivers with building collapses in South Mediterranean cities (e.g., Alexandria) raises several concerns. In particular, it <i>singles out</i> the adverse effects on <i>foundations</i> from the <i>bottom up</i> as the <i>sole</i> cause of building collapses and bases its predictions solely on this factor. In the writer's opinion, and from a structural engineering perspective, this may not encompass the range of all contributing causes, and could have overestimated the role of certain factors while possibly overlooking others. Moreover, the 5 cm depth of soil tests used does not provide sufficient insights for evaluating structural soil properties and failure causes according to established building codes. In the article's <i>abstract</i>, the reported number of 7,000 buildings is stated, however, not mentioned in the body of paper, requiring <i>clarification and</i> justification. The commentary attempts to provide insights into the actual causes of building collapses in Alexandria and suggests some practical engineering solutions that may mitigate some adverse effects on building foundations. Admittedly, many old buildings in Alexandria (as in other historic cities) need repair, renovations, and some demolition. The problems of building collapses and deterioration call for urgent action, comprehensive strategies, and detailed multi-factor analyses that account for all related causes, including technical, engineering, social, and legislative factors, not just hydrodynamic drivers alone.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006885","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147585173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Measurement of Gas Fraction and Gas Permeability of Thawing Permafrost Caused by Climate Change","authors":"P. W. J. Glover,&nbsp;L. Tliba,&nbsp;R. A. Clark,&nbsp;P. Lorinczi","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007232","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Thawing of permafrost due to climate change is known to release gases such as the climate drivers carbon dioxide and methane, as well as the carcinogen radon. Gas permeability is extremely low in fully frozen permafrost and can be considered both to function as a seal preventing subsurface gases being released, and to prevent the creation of new CO₂ and CH₄. However, the permeability of permafrost as it thaws and refreezes is unknown. In this paper we present initial measurements of changes in gas fraction and gas permeability during the thawing of synthetic permafrost using a newly developed pycno-permeameter. Initial results show that gas permeability increases by multiple orders of magnitude (from 4.94 mD to 112.54 mD and from 0.26 mD to 21.43 mD for our two samples), depending on the initial water saturation of the sample, with most permeability change occurring in the −5°C to −1°C range. Upon refreezing, the permeability drops again to approximately its previous low values providing no water is allowed to drain from the sample, but with a hysteresis. Measurements of gas fraction show a similar variation to thawing and refreezing but with a hysteresis opposite to that for permeability. These initial results indicate that the protective gas seal previously provided by permafrost will be lost as permafrost thaws. These data are also able to inform large scale permafrost modeling, as well as suggesting that thawing and refreezing operate differently at a microstructural level.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007232","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147568966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Measurement of Gas Fraction and Gas Permeability of Thawing Permafrost Caused by Climate Change","authors":"P. W. J. Glover,&nbsp;L. Tliba,&nbsp;R. A. Clark,&nbsp;P. Lorinczi","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007232","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Thawing of permafrost due to climate change is known to release gases such as the climate drivers carbon dioxide and methane, as well as the carcinogen radon. Gas permeability is extremely low in fully frozen permafrost and can be considered both to function as a seal preventing subsurface gases being released, and to prevent the creation of new CO₂ and CH₄. However, the permeability of permafrost as it thaws and refreezes is unknown. In this paper we present initial measurements of changes in gas fraction and gas permeability during the thawing of synthetic permafrost using a newly developed pycno-permeameter. Initial results show that gas permeability increases by multiple orders of magnitude (from 4.94 mD to 112.54 mD and from 0.26 mD to 21.43 mD for our two samples), depending on the initial water saturation of the sample, with most permeability change occurring in the −5°C to −1°C range. Upon refreezing, the permeability drops again to approximately its previous low values providing no water is allowed to drain from the sample, but with a hysteresis. Measurements of gas fraction show a similar variation to thawing and refreezing but with a hysteresis opposite to that for permeability. These initial results indicate that the protective gas seal previously provided by permafrost will be lost as permafrost thaws. These data are also able to inform large scale permafrost modeling, as well as suggesting that thawing and refreezing operate differently at a microstructural level.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007232","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147568579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Deep Learning Framework for Extreme Storm Surge Modeling Under Future Climate Scenarios","authors":"Emiliano Longo,&nbsp;Andrea Ficchì,&nbsp;Martin Verlaan,&nbsp;Sanne Muis,&nbsp;Andrea Castelletti","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007072","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF007072","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Coastal regions are increasingly exposed to sea-level rise and intensifying storm surges, underscoring the urgent need for accurate long-term predictions of extreme water levels to support robust adaptation planning. Physics-based hydrodynamic storm surge models remain the gold standard for such projections, but are computationally demanding, limiting their feasibility for producing the large scenario ensembles needed under deep uncertainty. Artificial intelligence surrogate models have emerged as a promising alternative. Yet, current approaches often underrepresent rare extremes and lack validation under future climate conditions, constraining their application for long-term planning. Here, we develop a deep learning surrogate model trained on hydrodynamic simulations from the Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM), with both historical reanalysis and high-resolution climate projections (CMIP6 HighResMIP). Using New York City, a highly vulnerable urban coastline with extensive surge records, as a testbed, we demonstrate the model's ability to represent extreme storm surges under both historical and mid-21st-century scenarios. To enhance performance on extremes, we propose a novel asymmetric loss function, combining quantile and expectile losses, which substantially improves predictions of rare storm surge events, while maintaining high overall performance. Fine-tuning with climate model outputs further aligns the surrogate's estimates with those of the hydrodynamic model across spatial and temporal scales. Under future climate forcing, projections obtained with the surrogate model closely reproduce the response of GTSM, capturing projected trends in extreme events. This open-data-based framework provides a computationally efficient and globally transferable approach for storm surge projection, enabling the large-scale scenario analyses required for climate-resilient coastal planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007072","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147643226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Initial Estimates of Soil Mercury Emissions Induced by Soil Heating During Global Wildfires","authors":"Danyu Wang,&nbsp;Long Chen,&nbsp;Yuzhe Shen,&nbsp;Qinzheng Chen,&nbsp;Qi Zhou,&nbsp;Tianqi Ma,&nbsp;Jingjing Yan,&nbsp;Yumin Li,&nbsp;Yongjie Wang,&nbsp;Yi Yang","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008074","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wildfires, increasingly frequent extreme events driven by global change, have significantly accelerated the release of mercury (Hg) stored in soils. However, a systematic quantification of Hg emissions from topsoil heating during global wildfires has been lacking. This study proposes a novel method for estimating these emissions, based on quantitative formulas that link soil heating depths with fire temperature and fire radiative power. Our results estimate that annual soil Hg emissions from topsoil heating during 2008–2019 were 98.1 Mg yr⁻¹ (24.5–290.0 Mg yr⁻¹). Emission hotspots were predominantly located in northern high-latitude (25%) and tropical regions (41%). In high-latitude regions, substantial historical Hg accumulation in soils, combined with rising wildfire frequency and intensity, contributed to significant emissions. In tropical regions, frequent wildfires and high atmospheric Hg deposition were the main drivers. This study provides crucial data to enhance global Hg emission inventories and improves the understanding of how wildfires impact global Hg cycling.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008074","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147567946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evidence of Increased Deep Ocean Warming From a Sea Level Budget Approach","authors":"Anny Cazenave,&nbsp;Chunxue Yang,&nbsp;Marie Bouih,&nbsp;Andrea Storto,&nbsp;Jianli Chen,&nbsp;William Lovell,&nbsp;Karina von Schuckmann,&nbsp;Lancelot Leclercq","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007403","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Assessments of the global mean sea level (GMSL) budget over the satellite altimetry era (since the early 1990s) have concluded that the GMSL budget is closed within data uncertainties until 2016. However, studies have shown that since then, the sea level budget based on Argo data down to 2,000 m for the thermosteric contribution is no longer closed. Using an ocean reanalysis with no altimetry data assimilation, we show that accounting for deep ocean thermosteric contribution (below 2,000 m, not sampled by Argo) allows the GMSL budget to be almost closed since 2016. The deep ocean contribution over 2005–2022 is estimated to be 0.4 ± 0.15 mm/yr, that is, about 10% of the observed GMSL rise over that period. This represents a substantial increase of the deep ocean contribution to sea level rise, previously estimated on the order of 0.1 mm/yr only over 1980–2010. This finding reveals that deep ocean warming is gaining importance and that ocean heat uptake has now reached several regions below 2,000 m depth, notably the Northwestern Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007403","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147567771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Storyline-Based Climate Attribution Reveals Strong Intensification of 2018–2022 Multi-Year Droughts in Europe","authors":"Ray Kettaren,&nbsp;Antonio Sánchez-Benítez,&nbsp;Helge Goessling,&nbsp;Marylou Athanase,&nbsp;Rohini Kumar,&nbsp;Luis Samaniego,&nbsp;Oldrich Rakovec","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007547","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007547","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Prolonged summer droughts represent a significant threat across Europe, as their persistence hinders hydrological recovery and severely impacts water resources, ecosystems, and agricultural systems under ongoing warming. Here, we investigated the 2018–2022 European multi-year drought across different warming levels using an innovative storyline attribution framework, applying nudged AWI-CM-1-1-MR simulations to force the mesoscale Hydrologic Model. Under present-day climate, the 2018–2022 drought caused a soil-moisture deficit of −44 (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;±&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $pm $&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;11.1) &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;k&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;m&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;3&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${mathrm{k}mathrm{m}}^{3}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;, affecting 0.63 (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;±&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $pm $&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;0.08) million &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;km&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{km}}^{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; (12% of the study area). The 2018–2022 multi-year soil moisture state would overall show a surplus roughly 1.5 times the magnitude of the present-day deficit, with less than half of the area still experiencing drought. With warming of 2 K or 4 K, the losses increase to −82 (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;±&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $pm $&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;6.7) or −256 (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;±&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $pm $&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;6.7) &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;k&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;m&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;3&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${mathrm{k}mathrm{m}}^{3}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;, while drought extent expands to approximately 16% or 43%. These findin","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007547","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147567705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evidence of Increased Deep Ocean Warming From a Sea Level Budget Approach","authors":"Anny Cazenave,&nbsp;Chunxue Yang,&nbsp;Marie Bouih,&nbsp;Andrea Storto,&nbsp;Jianli Chen,&nbsp;William Lovell,&nbsp;Karina von Schuckmann,&nbsp;Lancelot Leclercq","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007403","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Assessments of the global mean sea level (GMSL) budget over the satellite altimetry era (since the early 1990s) have concluded that the GMSL budget is closed within data uncertainties until 2016. However, studies have shown that since then, the sea level budget based on Argo data down to 2,000 m for the thermosteric contribution is no longer closed. Using an ocean reanalysis with no altimetry data assimilation, we show that accounting for deep ocean thermosteric contribution (below 2,000 m, not sampled by Argo) allows the GMSL budget to be almost closed since 2016. The deep ocean contribution over 2005–2022 is estimated to be 0.4 ± 0.15 mm/yr, that is, about 10% of the observed GMSL rise over that period. This represents a substantial increase of the deep ocean contribution to sea level rise, previously estimated on the order of 0.1 mm/yr only over 1980–2010. This finding reveals that deep ocean warming is gaining importance and that ocean heat uptake has now reached several regions below 2,000 m depth, notably the Northwestern Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007403","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147567770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Storyline-Based Climate Attribution Reveals Strong Intensification of 2018–2022 Multi-Year Droughts in Europe","authors":"Ray Kettaren,&nbsp;Antonio Sánchez-Benítez,&nbsp;Helge Goessling,&nbsp;Marylou Athanase,&nbsp;Rohini Kumar,&nbsp;Luis Samaniego,&nbsp;Oldrich Rakovec","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007547","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007547","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Prolonged summer droughts represent a significant threat across Europe, as their persistence hinders hydrological recovery and severely impacts water resources, ecosystems, and agricultural systems under ongoing warming. Here, we investigated the 2018–2022 European multi-year drought across different warming levels using an innovative storyline attribution framework, applying nudged AWI-CM-1-1-MR simulations to force the mesoscale Hydrologic Model. Under present-day climate, the 2018–2022 drought caused a soil-moisture deficit of −44 (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;±&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $pm $&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;11.1) &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;k&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;m&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;3&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${mathrm{k}mathrm{m}}^{3}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;, affecting 0.63 (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;±&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $pm $&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;0.08) million &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;km&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{km}}^{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; (12% of the study area). The 2018–2022 multi-year soil moisture state would overall show a surplus roughly 1.5 times the magnitude of the present-day deficit, with less than half of the area still experiencing drought. With warming of 2 K or 4 K, the losses increase to −82 (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;±&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $pm $&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;6.7) or −256 (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;±&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $pm $&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;6.7) &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;k&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;m&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;3&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${mathrm{k}mathrm{m}}^{3}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;, while drought extent expands to approximately 16% or 43%. These findin","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007547","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147567945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Initial Estimates of Soil Mercury Emissions Induced by Soil Heating During Global Wildfires","authors":"Danyu Wang,&nbsp;Long Chen,&nbsp;Yuzhe Shen,&nbsp;Qinzheng Chen,&nbsp;Qi Zhou,&nbsp;Tianqi Ma,&nbsp;Jingjing Yan,&nbsp;Yumin Li,&nbsp;Yongjie Wang,&nbsp;Yi Yang","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008074","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wildfires, increasingly frequent extreme events driven by global change, have significantly accelerated the release of mercury (Hg) stored in soils. However, a systematic quantification of Hg emissions from topsoil heating during global wildfires has been lacking. This study proposes a novel method for estimating these emissions, based on quantitative formulas that link soil heating depths with fire temperature and fire radiative power. Our results estimate that annual soil Hg emissions from topsoil heating during 2008–2019 were 98.1 Mg yr⁻¹ (24.5–290.0 Mg yr⁻¹). Emission hotspots were predominantly located in northern high-latitude (25%) and tropical regions (41%). In high-latitude regions, substantial historical Hg accumulation in soils, combined with rising wildfire frequency and intensity, contributed to significant emissions. In tropical regions, frequent wildfires and high atmospheric Hg deposition were the main drivers. This study provides crucial data to enhance global Hg emission inventories and improves the understanding of how wildfires impact global Hg cycling.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008074","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147567768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}