Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Sustainability Evaluation of the Doughnut Economics: A Bibliometric Analysis","authors":"Qinglong Shao","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004638","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004638","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Considering the lack of a comprehensive review of Doughnut Economics (DE) as an emerging sustainability evaluation framework, this study conducts a bibliometric analysis from 2012 to 2024 to reveal the research progress using CiteSpace. After introducing its connotation and summarizing its theoretical basis, accounting procedures, and urban practices, bibliometric analyses show that: (a) The “planetary boundary/ies,” “sustainable development,” and “doughnut economics” are the three most frequently co-occurred keywords, and the similarities and differences of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and DE are presented; (b) Timeline view reveals the term climate change has the longest research history and widest citation relationships in DE research; (c) The landmark studies of Raworth, O’Neill, Steffen, and Fanning are illustrated as the most important works with the highest frequencies of co-citations; (d) Stockholm University, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and University of Oxford are the top three DE research centers within environment-related disciplines, and the authors are mainly come from the England, USA, and Germany. The results not only provide a valuable reference for researchers interested in DE but also put forward the emphasis and orientation of future studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004638","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143831240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring Site-Specific Carbon Dioxide Removal Options With Storage or Sequestration in the Marine Environment – The 10 Mt CO2 yr−1 Removal Challenge for Germany","authors":"W. Yao,&nbsp;T. M. Morganti,&nbsp;J. Wu,&nbsp;M. Borchers,&nbsp;A. Anschütz,&nbsp;L.-K. Bednarz,&nbsp;K. A. Bhaumik,&nbsp;M. Böttcher,&nbsp;K. Burkhard,&nbsp;T. Cabus,&nbsp;A. S. Chua,&nbsp;I. Diercks,&nbsp;M. Esposito,&nbsp;M. Fink,&nbsp;M. Fouqueray,&nbsp;F. Gasanzade,&nbsp;S. Geilert,&nbsp;J. Hauck,&nbsp;F. Havermann,&nbsp;I. Hellige,&nbsp;S. Hoog,&nbsp;M. Jürchott,&nbsp;H. T. Kalapurakkal,&nbsp;J. Kemper,&nbsp;I. Kremin,&nbsp;I. Lange,&nbsp;J. M. Lencina-Avila,&nbsp;M. Liadova,&nbsp;F. Liu,&nbsp;S. Mathesius,&nbsp;N. Mehendale,&nbsp;T. Nagwekar,&nbsp;M. Philippi,&nbsp;G. L. N. Luz,&nbsp;M. Ramasamy,&nbsp;F. Stahl,&nbsp;L. Tank,&nbsp;M.-E. Vorrath,&nbsp;L. Westmark,&nbsp;H.-W. Wey,&nbsp;R. Wollnik,&nbsp;M. Wölfelschneider,&nbsp;W. Bach,&nbsp;K. Bischof,&nbsp;M. Boersma,&nbsp;U. Daewel,&nbsp;M. Fernández-Méndez,&nbsp;J. K. Geuer,&nbsp;D. P. Keller,&nbsp;A. Kopf,&nbsp;C. Merk,&nbsp;N. Moosdorf,&nbsp;N. Oppelt,&nbsp;A. Oschlies,&nbsp;J. Pongratz,&nbsp;A. Proelss,&nbsp;G. J. Rehder,&nbsp;L. Rüpke,&nbsp;N. Szarka,&nbsp;D. Thraen,&nbsp;K. Wallmann,&nbsp;N. Mengis","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004902","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004902","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) and geological carbon storage in the marine environment (mCS) promise to help mitigate global climate change alongside drastic emission reductions. However, the implementable potential of mCDR and mCS depends, apart from technology readiness, also on site-specific conditions. In this work, we explore different options for mCDR and mCS, using the German context as a case study. We challenge each option to remove 10 Mt CO₂ yr⁻¹, accounting for 8%–22% of projected hard-to-abate and residual emissions of Germany in 2045. We focus on the environmental, resource, and infrastructure requirements of individual mCDR and mCS options at specific sites, within the German jurisdiction when possible. This serves as an entry point to discuss main uncertainty factors and research needs beyond technology readiness, and, where possible, cost estimates, expected environmental effects, and monitoring approaches. In total, we describe 10 mCDR and mCS options; four aim at enhancing the chemical carbon uptake of the ocean through alkalinity enhancement, four aim at enhancing blue carbon ecosystems' sink capacity, and two employ geological off-shore storage. Our results indicate that five out of 10 options would potentially be implementable within German jurisdiction, and three of them could potentially meet the challenge. Our exercise serves as an example on how the creation of more tangible and site-specific CDR options can provide a basis for the assessment of socio-economic, ethical, political, and legal aspects for such implementations. The approach presented here can easily be applied to other regional or national CDR capacity considerations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004902","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143831242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Current Interventions Are Inadequate to Maintain Cities' Resilience During Concurrent Drought and Excessive Heat","authors":"Yannick Back,&nbsp;Alrun Jasper-Tönnies,&nbsp;Peter M. Bach,&nbsp;Prashant Kumar,&nbsp;Mattheos Santamouris,&nbsp;Wolfgang Rauch,&nbsp;Manfred Kleidorfer","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005208","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005208","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is expected to intensify the global water cycle, affecting land-atmosphere feedbacks and surface water availability. This leads to prolonged droughts and excessive heat events, increasing vulnerability of cities to water scarcity and extreme heat. Here, we integrate data from regional climate simulations into an urban modeling approach that operates at an intraurban microscale. Using this approach, we investigate the concurrent effects of the 2019 European summer drought and an increase in extreme heat days under RCP2.6 (mitigation scenario) and RCP8.5 (business-as-usual scenario) on land-atmosphere interactions, evaporative cooling potential, and bioclimatic conditions in Innsbruck, Austria. Results indicate that water-limiting conditions such as those from summer 2019 impair evaporative capacities of ecological systems and augment diurnal and nocturnal heat transfer between the soil, surface and atmosphere in the city, if not irrigated extensively. Combined with the projected increase in daily maximum temperature of extreme heat days by 3.9 K under RCP8.5, we see the development of extreme human heat stress, with a mean Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) exceeding 38°C across the study area. Additionally, we found that maintaining a prevailing evaporative cooling effect over an area requires a degree of surface sealing less than 11% and unrestricted water supply. We stress the urgency of integrated urban water management, including combined rain and greywater recycling, and innovative natural and technical climate change interventions for urban green space irrigation. These mitigation measures are necessary to avoid critical malfunctions in ecological systems related to human well-being under future climate trajectories.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005208","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143822086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Expert Assessments of Maritime Shipping Decarbonization Pathways by 2030 and 2050","authors":"Imranul I. Laskar,&nbsp;Hadi Dowlatabadi,&nbsp;Amanda Giang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005255","url":null,"abstract":"<p>International shipping conveys over 80% of global trade by volume and emits an estimated 3% of the world's greenhouse gases (GHGs). There are many potential pathways and barriers to decarbonizing the diverse and fragmented international shipping sector, with numerous uncertainties. Here, we employ expert elicitation, gathering perspectives from 149 world-leading experts in maritime shipping and decarbonization, to characterize uncertainties in shipping decarbonization pathways. These experts predict a 30%–40% (25th–75th percentile range) carbon intensity reduction by 2030 compared to 2008, meeting the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) target. By 2050, they anticipate an approximate 40%–75% cut in GHG emissions, falling short of the IMO's 2050 net-zero GHG goal. Responding experts see decarbonization occurring through three types of measures: operational, technological, and alternative energy sources. In the short-term, decarbonization is predicted to be dominated by operational measures, while in the long-term, it will be dominated by alternative energy, although there is no consensus on which fuels will dominate. Technological upgrades are expected to play crucial supporting roles. The experts believe that differences in business models and governance may lead to different decarbonization pathways by ship segment. The experts' qualitative responses highlight: alternative energy systems, ship fleet turnover, spillover effects from other sectors, reducing industry pessimism, and the supply chain as critical leverage points that can propel shipping toward sustainable decarbonization pathways. Navigating this transition demands support from key levers identified in this study: politics and policy, maritime governance, and contractual architecture.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005255","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143801446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"COVID-19 Fueled an Elevated Number of Human-Caused Ignitions in the Western United States During the 2020 Wildfire Season","authors":"Adam L. Jorge,&nbsp;John T. Abatzoglou,&nbsp;Erica Fleishman,&nbsp;Emily L. Williams,&nbsp;David E. Rupp,&nbsp;Jeffrey S. Jenkins,&nbsp;Mojtaba Sadegh,&nbsp;Crystal A. Kolden,&nbsp;Karen C. Short","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005744","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005744","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The area burned in the western United States during the 2020 fire season was the greatest in the modern era. Here we show that the number of human-caused fires in 2020 also was elevated, nearly 20% higher than the 1992–2019 average. Although anomalously dry conditions enabled ignitions to spread and contributed to record area burned, these conditions alone do not explain the surge in the number of human-caused ignitions. We argue that behavioral shifts aimed at curtailing the spread of COVID-19 altered human-environment interactions to favor increased ignitions. For example, the number of recreation-caused wildfires during summer was 36% greater than the 1992–2019 average; this increase was likely a function of increased outdoor recreational activity in response to social distancing measures. We hypothesize that the combination of anomalously dry conditions and COVID-19 social disruptions contributed to widespread increases in human-caused ignitions, adding complexity to fire management efforts during the 2020 western US fire season. Knowledge of how social behavior changes indirectly contributed to the increased number of ignitions in the 2020 wildfire season can help inform resource management in an increasingly flammable world.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005744","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143793401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Maximizing the Detectability of Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) While Minimizing Its Exposure Risks: Insights From a Numerical Study","authors":"Bin Wang,&nbsp;Arnaud Laurent,&nbsp;Qiantong Pei,&nbsp;Jinyu Sheng,&nbsp;Dariia Atamanchuk,&nbsp;Katja Fennel","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005463","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005463","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) can potentially remove gigatons of CO₂ from the atmosphere for durable storage in the ocean. Before implementing OAE at climate-relevant scales, questions about its safety and verifiability must be addressed. Operational deployment poses a dilemma between pursuing large detectability, essential for effective monitoring, reporting, and verification, and ensuring environmental safety and satisfying regulatory requirements. In this study, we present a computationally efficient approach, based on a high-resolution, coupled circulation-dissolution model of Halifax Harbor, to simulating the addition, transportation, dissolution, and sinking of various theoretical alkaline feedstocks for different dosages, seasons, and addition sites. Detectability and exposure risk of OAE are quantified and an approach for optimizing OAE deployment is demonstrated. Mean residence times (MRT) are calculated for different subregions and seasons. Results show that for a given amount of feedstock, summer is more favorable from the perspective of detectability but also creates higher exposure risks than other seasons because of a longer MRT. The exposure risk can be mitigated while maintaining large detectability by choosing optimal feedstocks with different characteristics for different seasons. The exposure risk can also be reduced by spreading alkalinity over multiple addition sites. The optimum allocation, where the largest detectability is sought without violating regulatory requirements, is specific to each season, dosage, and choice of feedstock. OAE deployments should be tailored taking into account local hydrography, season, dosage, and feedstock characteristics. Our approach provides a practical avenue for optimizing deployments.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005463","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future Wave Climate in the Mediterranean Sea and Associated Uncertainty From an Ensemble of 31 GCM-RCM Wave Simulations","authors":"Tim Toomey,&nbsp;Andrea Lira-Loarca,&nbsp;Marta Marcos,&nbsp;Giovanni Besio,&nbsp;Alejandro Orfila","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004992","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004992","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Storm-driven waves significantly increase coastal hazards, especially in densely populated and infrastructure-rich regions like the Mediterranean, which is a major global hub for tourism, cultural heritage, and shipping. Although the basin has a fetch-limited environment, extra-tropical cyclones can still produce high waves. With increasing global temperatures altering the climate system, wave climate changes are anticipated, albeit with varying reliability across modeled climate variables. This study investigates projected wave climate changes in the Mediterranean using an extensive ensemble of EURO-CORDEX GCM-RCMs wave simulations based on the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. We assess future shifts in wave climate statistics while incorporating model variability for comprehensive results. Consistent with previous studies, our results indicate an overall reduction in significant wave height <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mfenced>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>H</mi>\u0000 <mi>s</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mfenced>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $left({H}_{s}right)$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>, with reductions up to 0.45 m in autumn and winter, alongside significant shifts in wave direction. The future extreme wave climate changes were further evaluated by computing 100-year <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>H</mi>\u0000 <mi>s</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${H}_{s}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> return levels. Extreme event distributions from all simulations were bias-corrected and aggregated into a single coherent distribution for each period. Our findings reveal for the first time robust evidence of intensification of extreme waves toward the end of the century in several regions of the Mediterranean, with increases of 0.50–2 m in <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>H</mi>\u0000 <mi>s</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${H}_{s}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>. While focusing solely on a high-emission scenario limits the scope of these findings for mitigation strategies, this study underscores the need to analyze both full and extreme distributions in wave climate projections. Each may have distinct implications for coastal management policies and maritime operations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004992","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Small Ponds as Carbon Emission and Burial Hotspots in Lowland Agricultural Landscape","authors":"Yulai Ji,&nbsp;Jiacong Huang,&nbsp;Qing Zhu,&nbsp;Shuailong Feng,&nbsp;Shuai Zhang,&nbsp;Shaohua Lei,&nbsp;Qitao Xiao,&nbsp;Wenqing Shi,&nbsp;Junfeng Gao","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005441","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Clarifying carbon (C) cycling in small ponds is vital for understanding C transport in lowland agricultural landscape. Quantifying C flux is crucial for learning C cycling, but is challenging due to its complex cycling and significant impacts from intensive human activities. Here, we developed a process-based model (CDP) to achieve a daily estimation of C dynamics in agricultural ponds within lowland artificial watersheds (polders), and proposed a dual evaluation approach (concentration and flux) to assess the model's performance using two data sets obtained from eight typical polders in the Lake Taihu Basin. The developed model captured pond C dynamics, achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.44 ± 0.27. Our C flux estimations based on the newly-developed model showed large C emissions, primarily through carbon dioxide (CO₂) (497.5 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹), along with significant C burial (27.8 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹) with a hot moment in summer. Scenario simulations revealed the distinct impacts of pond C emissions and burial associated with the growth and death of phytoplankton and macrophytes. A 10% increase in macrophyte growth rates associated with a 1.8 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ increase in CO₂ emission, while a similar increase in phytoplankton growth rates related to a 12.2–16.2% increase in C burial. This study revealed a quick response of C flux to phytoplankton-macrophyte dominance, and highlighted the high potential of the process-based model for high-resolution (daily) quantification of C fluxes, thereby enhancing our understanding of C cycling in lowland agricultural ponds.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005441","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143762097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Antarctic Biosecurity Policy Effectively Manages the Rates of Alien Introductions","authors":"Rachel I. Leihy,&nbsp;Melodie A. McGeoch,&nbsp;David A. Clarke,&nbsp;Lou Peake,&nbsp;Yehezkel Buba,&nbsp;Jonathan Belmaker,&nbsp;Steven L. Chown","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005405","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Reducing the rates and impacts of biological invasions is a major policy goal of international biodiversity agreements. Yet the extent to which this goal is being achieved and the agreements hence successful in this respect remains unclear. Here we use a comprehensive record of alien species introduction in the terrestrial Antarctic, including its surrounding Southern Ocean Islands, spanning 115 years (1900–2015), to quantify the impact of biosecurity policy on alien species introduction rates in the region, where invasive alien species are a primary environmental conservation threat and management priority. We show that although many parts of the Antarctic have been colonized by non-indigenous taxa, recent rates of introduction appear to be slowing or static in most parts, compared with increases in the past. Our results vindicate the regional Antarctic focus on biosecurity measures, but also demonstrate the need for stricter enforcement due to rapid socio-environmental changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005405","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Grain for Green Program to Grassland Might Lead to Carbon Sink Leakage in the Loess Plateau","authors":"Y. Q. Ma,&nbsp;J. H. Li,&nbsp;W. Cao,&nbsp;L. Huang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005261","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005261","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Grain for Green Program (GFGP), China's most famous ecological program, has become the main driver of carbon sink increases. However, the potential of the carbon sink effect still lacks scenario-based systematic estimation. By backdating the GFGP carbon sink increase in the Loess Plateau (LP) over the past 20 years, we forecast and reveal the spatial distribution of the carbon sink and the contribution of the GFGP in the “Double Carbon Target” years under three scenarios. Our results showed that places restored to forests (GFGP-Forest) will always lead to a carbon sink increase by (33.62 Tg C for 2000–2020) 0.78–1.09 Tg C and 1.29–2.13 Tg C in 2030 and 2060, respectively. However, the places restored to grasslands (GFGP-Grassland) will lead to an increase for 2000–2020 (72.52 Tg C), but a decrease in 2030 and 2060 (0.89–9.95 Tg C and 7.42–11.18 Tg C). This conversion is due to the combination of the decrease of the Net Primary Productivity and the increase of the heterotrophic respiration in the future, which indicates that the restoration programs involved in converting croplands into grasslands will severely decrease the carbon sink benefits and potential. In summary, it is essential to correctly quantify the carbon contribution in the LP resulting from the GFGP, and properly manage to augment the carbon sink from the GFGP-Forest and avoid the carbon source of GFGP-Grassland in the future. Our results highlight the hidden danger of leaking carbon sink of grasslands in a typical semi-arid region under future climate-changing conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005261","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}