Earths Future最新文献_第4页

Methane Emissions in Asian Wetlands During 2010–2020: Insights From an Online-Coupled Microbial Functional-Group-Based Model 2010-2020年亚洲湿地甲烷排放：基于在线耦合微生物功能群模型的见解

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF005991

Qian Zhang, Tijian Wang, Zhen Zhang, Xiaofeng Xu, Nanhong Xie, Bingliang Zhuang, Shu Li, Libo Gao, Mengmeng Li, Min Xie

{"title":"Methane Emissions in Asian Wetlands During 2010–2020: Insights From an Online-Coupled Microbial Functional-Group-Based Model","authors":"Qian Zhang, Tijian Wang, Zhen Zhang, Xiaofeng Xu, Nanhong Xie, Bingliang Zhuang, Shu Li, Libo Gao, Mengmeng Li, Min Xie","doi":"10.1029/2025EF005991","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF005991","url":null,"abstract":"Wetland ecosystems are the dominant natural source of atmospheric methane (CH4) in the global methane cycle, yet significant uncertainties remain. Along with the warming climate system, CH4 emissions from these ecosystems are projected to increase, presenting challenges for accurate CH4 budget accounting and climate mitigation efforts. This study assessed CH4 emissions and controlling factors in wetlands across East, South, and Southeast Asia (EA, SA, and SEA) for 2010–2020, using a regional Earth system model coupled online with a microbial functional-group-based CH4 model (RegESM-Microbe). The results from the RegESM-Microbe model were evaluated against 11 offline wetland models from the Global Carbon Project and revealed consistent hotspots for wetland CH4 emissions, including the Yangtze River floodplain, the Ganges and Brahmaputra River basins, and the Mekong River basin. The annual total wetland CH4 emissions in Asia estimated (34.69 ± 2.55 Tg CH4 yr−1) by the RegESM-Microbe model was close to the bottom-up wetland model ensemble (36.66 ± 1.19 Tg CH4 yr−1). The time series of emissions showed a decreasing trend before 2014. Meanwhile, the weakening of anaerobic CH4 oxidation between 2014 and 2020 contributed to increased CH4 flow in the three transport sub-processes, driving the enhanced CH4 emissions. Most wetlands in the region exhibited an upward trend in CH4 emission, with precipitation and radiation as the primary driver, followed by rising atmospheric CO2. Our study highlighted the critical role of climate change-induced wetland CH4 emissions in shaping long-term greenhouse gas mitigation strategies.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF005991","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145013006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Optimal Temperature of Ecosystem Respiration Homogenizes Under Global Warming 全球变暖下生态系统呼吸最适温度均一化

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006440

Qinyu Zheng, Song Wang, Weinan Chen, Tao Li, Lìyǐn L. Liáng, Houkun Chu, Yiheng Wang, Shuli Niu

{"title":"The Optimal Temperature of Ecosystem Respiration Homogenizes Under Global Warming","authors":"Qinyu Zheng, Song Wang, Weinan Chen, Tao Li, Lìyǐn L. Liáng, Houkun Chu, Yiheng Wang, Shuli Niu","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006440","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006440","url":null,"abstract":"Terrestrial ecosystem respiration (ER) is a key component of the carbon cycle and is highly temperature sensitive. While ER is often modeled as an exponential function of temperature, recent evidence shows that ER exhibits an optimal temperature (Topt). However, the temporal dynamics of Topt under climate warming remain poorly understood. This study analyzed data from 135 long-term FLUXNET sites, each with at least 5 years of observation. Our results show that Topt of ER increased with rising temperatures across years within a site, indicating thermal acclimation, with a global average acclimation magnitude (Topt change per unit change in maximum temperature) of 0.82. More interestingly, this acclimation magnitude showed a negative correlation with the mean annual temperature across sites which was particularly evident in deciduous broadleaf forests and in cold regions. This negative correlation suggests that ecosystems in colder sites exhibit higher acclimation magnitudes compared to warmer sites, potentially reducing the variation in Topt across globe under future warming. These findings indicate a global homogenization of Topt under warming conditions. Future scenario analysis suggested that neglecting thermal acclimation may lead to inaccurate Topt estimates under climate change. This study underscores the importance of considering variable thermal acclimation responses of Topt for accurate prediction of future ER.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006440","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145012987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Tropical Pacific Warming Patterns Influence Future Hydroclimate Shifts and Extremes in the Americas 热带太平洋变暖模式影响美洲未来的水文气候变化和极端气候

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006014

Ulla K. Heede, Nathan Lenssen, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Clara Deser

{"title":"Tropical Pacific Warming Patterns Influence Future Hydroclimate Shifts and Extremes in the Americas","authors":"Ulla K. Heede, Nathan Lenssen, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Clara Deser","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006014","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006014","url":null,"abstract":"The eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) Ocean is projected to warm faster than the Atlantic or Indian Oceans in the 21st century, yet this prediction is highly uncertain due to model-observation discrepancies. The potential impacts of this uncertainty on regional terrestrial hydroclimates are largely unknown, which is problematic for climate risk assessments. To address this, we designed novel atmospheric model experiments simulating future global warming with and without enhanced ETP warming, superimposed upon an idealized El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. Our results show that enhanced ETP warming significantly influences future terrestrial hydroclimates in several regions across the tropical and subtropical Americas. In southern Mexico, Central America and the Amazon region, enhanced ETP warming exacerbates long term drought trends and extreme drought events, yet the opposite is true in south-central South America. Along the west coast of the continental western United States, the effects of enhanced ETP warming manifest as El Niño-related extreme precipitation anomalies. These findings illustrate how climate impact projections may be misrepresented in conventional multi-model analysis, which does reflect true uncertainty of the future tropical Pacific warming pattern.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006014","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145007989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Energy–Water–Land Nexus of Global Water-Surface Solar Photovoltaics 全球水面太阳能光伏的能量-水-土地关系

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006658

Anqi Li, Jidong Wu

{"title":"The Energy–Water–Land Nexus of Global Water-Surface Solar Photovoltaics","authors":"Anqi Li, Jidong Wu","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006658","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006658","url":null,"abstract":"Photovoltaic (PV) power generation, as a low-cost and clean energy technology, has become one of the most sustainable renewable energy sources. Water-surface photovoltaic (WSPV) systems exhibit a unique synergy in clean energy generation, water evaporation reduction, and land use efficiency, making them highly valuable for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs). Using global PV data, we quantify the energy–water–land nexus of WSPV systems through capacity estimation and a water evaporation model. In this nexus, energy refers to the electricity generated by WSPV systems on water surfaces; the water surface acts both as the installation platform and a water-saving feature by reducing evaporation. WSPV systems also replace traditional ground-based stations, conserving land by avoiding cultivated and ecologically sensitive areas. Results show significant growth in WSPV installations from 2019 to 2022, with total installed capacity increasing by 87.37%, from 19,685.34 MW in 2019 to 36,888.62 MW in 2022. During this period, water savings grew by 91.96%, from 90.27 million m3 to 173.29 million m3 per year. The land area saved by WSPV systems also increased, from 86.68 km2 to 162.27 km2. WSPV deployment presents significant opportunities to integrate renewable energy production with water and land conservation, supporting sustainable global development.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006658","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145005568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Increasing Accumulated Temperature Pushed the Maize Planting Limit Northwards: Phenomenon Analysis and Coping Strategy 积温升高将玉米种植极限向北推：现象分析及应对策略

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF005937

Yihang Huang, Zhengjia Liu

{"title":"Increasing Accumulated Temperature Pushed the Maize Planting Limit Northwards: Phenomenon Analysis and Coping Strategy","authors":"Yihang Huang, Zhengjia Liu","doi":"10.1029/2025EF005937","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF005937","url":null,"abstract":"Climate warming is driving the northward movement of crop planting limits, especially for maize in Northeast China. While previous studies focused on dynamics of the potential northern limit of maize (PNLine), the movement of the actual northern limit of maize (ANLine) and its agricultural impacts remain underexplored. To bridge the gap, this study first developed a method to detect the ANLine using satellite-derived crop data and kernel density estimation. To assess the driving factors behind the expansion of maize acreage, an empirical analysis was conducted in the maize-soybean key competitive region (KCR). Finally, we calculated the climate-warming driven maize acreage expansion over the past two decades and projected its changes for the next decade. Results showed that the PNLine and ANLine moved northwards by an average of 101.67 and 75.4 km from 2000 to 2020. The two lines showed a strong correlation (r = 0.78, p < 0.05). The increasing accumulated temperature was the key driver behind these movements. A 10°C·d increase in AAT10 is associated with a 3.12% increase in maize acreage in the KCR. From 2001 to 2020, ∼49.5% (2.83 × 106 ha) of the maize acreage expansion could be attributable to climate warming. By 2030, climate warming is projected to expand the maize acreage by 2.43, 2.66, and 3.19 × 106 ha under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These findings highlight the need for strategies to narrow the profit gap between maize and soybean, offering insights for regional crop planting structure adjustments and agricultural sustainability under climate change.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF005937","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144998892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reduced Crop Yield Stability Is More Likely to Be Associated With Heat Than With Moisture Extremes in the US Midwest 农作物产量稳定性下降更有可能与美国中西部的高温有关，而不是与极端湿度有关

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005172

Weihang Liu, Junxiong Zhou, Yuchuan Luo, Shuo Chen, Yuchi Ma

{"title":"Reduced Crop Yield Stability Is More Likely to Be Associated With Heat Than With Moisture Extremes in the US Midwest","authors":"Weihang Liu, Junxiong Zhou, Yuchuan Luo, Shuo Chen, Yuchi Ma","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005172","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005172","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the changes in crop yield stability (μ/σ) under climate change is critical for food security and farmer livelihoods. Unstable crop yields have been identified as detrimental to international food trade and markets. However, the association between climate extremes and crop yield stability has not been well documented. Here, we present the sensitivity of corn and soybean yield stability to heat, drought and excessive wetness by using statistical modeling for rainfed corn and soybean based on survey yield records in the US Midwest. The results using survey data indicate that increased heat, drought and excessive wetness are collectively associated with reduced yield stability for corn and soybean. We find that the changes in corn and soybean yield stability in the US Midwest are predominantly related to heat stress. Additionally, irrigation can mitigate the yield stability reduction associated with heat and drought. In contrast, well-irrigated yield is more sensitive to excess wet. Our results highlight the importance of examining the correlation between climate extremes and crop yield stability.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005172","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144929914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Revisiting the Role of China's Protected Areas in Carbon Storage 重新审视中国保护区在碳储存中的作用

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006202

Shuhan Wang, Jian Peng, Yifan Lin, Tao Hu

{"title":"Revisiting the Role of China's Protected Areas in Carbon Storage","authors":"Shuhan Wang, Jian Peng, Yifan Lin, Tao Hu","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006202","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006202","url":null,"abstract":"It is widely expected that conservation efforts within protected areas (PAs) can achieve multiple conservation objectives simultaneously. PAs established primarily for biodiversity conservation also contribute to increasing carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is a lack of quantitative studies on the role of China's existing PAs in carbon storage. We proposed an integrated approach to estimating the carbon density of terrestrial ecosystems in China, based on a modified Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model. Through a statistical matching method, we evaluated the conservation effectiveness of PAs in carbon storage during 2020–2050. Under the moderate emission scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5), the average carbon density of PAs is projected to 168.3 Mg C ha−1, an increase of 14.2% compared to 2020. In contrast, under the low emission scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6) and high emission scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5), the average carbon density of PAs is projected to decrease by 4.8% and 4.6%, respectively. By 2050, approximately 45%–47% of PAs are expected to experience effective conservation in carbon storage, with about 80% of PAs maintaining their current effectiveness during 2020–2050. Additionally, in view of area proportion, 34.3%–36.2% of PAs will remain effective, while 1.8%–4.0% are projected to transition from ineffective to effective. PAs with conservation effectiveness in carbon storage were predominantly located in humid and mid-to-high-altitude regions. Given the spatial mismatch among existing PAs, priority areas for carbon storage conservation, and effective areas for carbon storage conservation, our findings underscore the necessity of expanding China's PAs to achieve the additional benefits of PAs in carbon storage conservation.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006202","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144927182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Anthropogenic Changes of Compound Extreme Precipitation Preconditioned by Heatwaves Have Emerged From the Internal Climate Variability in China 热浪预置复合极端降水的人为变化源于中国内部气候变率

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-31 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005162

Jiahe Liu, Jie Chen, Xunchang J. Zhang, Jiabo Yin, Shaobo Zhang

{"title":"Anthropogenic Changes of Compound Extreme Precipitation Preconditioned by Heatwaves Have Emerged From the Internal Climate Variability in China","authors":"Jiahe Liu, Jie Chen, Xunchang J. Zhang, Jiabo Yin, Shaobo Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005162","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005162","url":null,"abstract":"Compound extreme precipitation preconditioned by heatwaves (CHEPs) are attracting people's attention nowadays, due to their devastating impacts on ecosystems and society. Although previous studies have widely investigated the historical changes of CHEPs, when these changes emerge from the internal climate variability remains unclear. In this study, we aim to understand the time of emergence (ToE) of CHEPs by utilizing multiple advanced Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensembles (SMILEs) in China. First, we investigate the spatiotemporal changes of CHEP characteristics over a 200-year period. Second, we detect ToE of CHEPs by adopting a signal-to-noise ratio framework. Third, we evaluate the added value of using SMILEs in the ToE analysis. We find that most areas have experienced increases in CHEP characteristic values in the historical period, which are projected to be more remarkable in the future under multiple projection scenarios. The agreement on the spatial distribution among SMILEs implies that anthropogenic forcings have already caused CHEP frequency to emerge from the internal climate variability over more than 84% of grid cells at least by 2020. In addition, earlier emergence can be found in CHEP hotspots. The temporal uncertainty largely derives from the model uncertainty in simulating signal-to-noise ratios for individual events rather than differences in ensemble sizes among SMILEs. Furthermore, ToE can be better constrained based on SMILEs compared to the climate models with fewer members, confirming the added value of using SMILEs. Our findings have implications for climate attribution and provide a scientific basis for mitigating and adapting to climate changes.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005162","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144923782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Geographical Patterns of Leaf and Topsoil Mercury in China's Urban Forests 中国城市森林叶片和表层土壤汞的地理格局

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006002

Enzai Du, Yuying Guo, Nan Xia, Yang Tang, Wim de Vries

{"title":"Geographical Patterns of Leaf and Topsoil Mercury in China's Urban Forests","authors":"Enzai Du, Yuying Guo, Nan Xia, Yang Tang, Wim de Vries","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006002","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006002","url":null,"abstract":"Rapid urbanization, occurring globally, has enhanced emissions and related biogeochemical cycling of multiple elements, including mercury (Hg). However, the geographical distribution of Hg in urban forests remains poorly quantified at multiple spatial scales. Based on field investigations of urban forest parks in China, we explored the urban-rural gradients and latitudinal trends of tree leaf and topsoil (0–10 cm) Hg concentrations. Our results indicate an urban hotspot of leaf and topsoil Hg concentrations across urban-rural transects and show an increase in leaf and topsoil Hg concentrations from higher latitudes toward lower latitudes. The urban-rural gradient and latitudinal trend of leaf Hg concentration are both significantly explained by road density, annual precipitation, and plant life forms. Leaf Hg concentration increases significantly with higher road density and is significantly higher in deciduous trees than in evergreen trees. Leaf Hg concentration decreases with higher annual precipitation across the urban-rural transects but increases with it across latitudes. The urban-rural gradient of topsoil Hg concentration is significantly associated with the spatial variation in traffic sources, while the latitudinal change in topsoil Hg concentration is largely explained by background soil Hg concentration. Our findings demonstrate distinctive patterns of urban forest Hg from local to regional scales and the occurrence of urban Hg hotspot implies a significant imprint on accelerated Hg cycling in urban areas.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144918732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling the Effects of Aridification on Hydrologic Fluxes and Reservoir Dynamics in the U.S. Southwest 模拟干旱化对美国西南部水文通量和水库动态的影响

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006372

Ahmed Elkouk, Yadu Pokhrel, Lifeng Luo, Elizabeth Payton, Ben Livneh

{"title":"Modeling the Effects of Aridification on Hydrologic Fluxes and Reservoir Dynamics in the U.S. Southwest","authors":"Ahmed Elkouk, Yadu Pokhrel, Lifeng Luo, Elizabeth Payton, Ben Livneh","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006372","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006372","url":null,"abstract":"Persistent droughts and anthropogenic warming have brought the southwestern United States—one of the world's most highly managed hydrologic regions—to the brink of a water supply crisis. Here, we examine the changes in hydrologic fluxes due to a shift toward aridity and the extent to which water storage in major reservoirs has offset these changes using a novel, high-resolution (4 km) configuration of a state-of-the-science land model, the Community Land Model. We leverage an emulation-based parameter optimization approach to improve model hydrologic performance and reservoir parametrizations (generic and data-driven) to simulate water storage and release. The hydrologic performance is notably improved across 121 basins in the Southwest, which translates into improved simulation of inflow, storage, and release across 133 reservoirs. The data-driven approach outperforms the generic one, in simulating reservoir storage but not releases due to biases in inflows. Model simulations show a widespread increase in evapotranspiration (especially its soil evaporation component), driven primarily by increased absorption of solar radiation due to snowpack loss, which suppresses runoff. Increases in snowmelt mitigate runoff deficits during spring, which highlights the sensitivity of runoff response to the seasonal distribution of hydroclimatic supply and demand in the Southwest. Up to 40% of inflow deficits are met by surface water storage in large reservoirs (i.e., Mead and Powell). Simulated estimates of this supply-demand imbalance are sensitive to biases in simulated inflows and releases. Caution is therefore warranted when using land models with reservoir parametrization for future drought risk and water scarcity assessments.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006372","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144910152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0