Earths Future最新文献

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Conceptualizing River Floodplains
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005681
Ellen Wohl
{"title":"Conceptualizing River Floodplains","authors":"Ellen Wohl","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005681","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Geologic, geomorphic, hydrologic, ecological, and biogeochemical conceptual models of river floodplains developed since the mid-20th century led to the current conceptualization of floodplains as integrative systems that store and transform diverse materials, provide a source of material that can be transported downstream, and function as ecosystems. Scientific recognition of floodplains as a critical component of river corridors is not, however, matched by societal perceptions and legal or regulatory frameworks, which typically treat the active channel and floodplain as separate entities. The development of an integrative scientific understanding of floodplains is reviewed here, along with five primary challenges to progress in understanding and managing floodplains. These challenges involve: integrating thinking, data collection, modeling, and prediction across disciplines in a manner that facilitates the work of practitioners and regulators; scaling across time and space; measuring and predicting feedbacks and nonlinear interactions; measuring and predicting resilience and resistance of floodplains and river corridors to natural and human-induced disturbances; and effectively communicating social and technical uncertainties in river management.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005681","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Controls of Ecohydrological Grassland Dynamics in Agrivoltaic Systems
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005183
Athanasios Paschalis, Sara Bonetti, Simone Fatichi
{"title":"Controls of Ecohydrological Grassland Dynamics in Agrivoltaic Systems","authors":"Athanasios Paschalis,&nbsp;Sara Bonetti,&nbsp;Simone Fatichi","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005183","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Agrivoltaic systems are characterized by the co-existence of photovoltaic panels on agricultural land, allowing simultaneous solar energy and food production without need for further land. Agrivoltaic installations alter the local microclimatic conditions of the land surface, impacting the performance of the agricultural systems embedded in them. In this study we develop an ecohydrological modeling framework combining a module that simulates changes in micrometeorology due to photovoltaic panel installations with a state-of-the-art model that resolves land surface water, energy, and vegetation dynamics (i.e., the terrestrial biosphere model T&amp;C). We demonstrate that the modeling framework is capable of reproducing grassland dynamics across a broad range of climates and agrivoltaic architectures. With the use of the model we evaluated grassland performance across the Mediterranean for two most commonly used architectures, namely mixed mounted solar panels and rotating solar tracking panels. We found that C3 grassland yields can be significantly enhanced only in climates where annual potential evapotranspiration exceeds annual rainfall. Changes in grassland productivity were attributed primarily to changes in the light environment at the land surface, with changes in surface aerodynamic roughness and rainfall redistribution due to drainage on panels playing a smaller negative role of comparable magnitudes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005183","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing Assisted Natural Regeneration as a Cost-Efficient Mitigation for Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss in China
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005257
Ming-Li Qiu, Dian-Feng Liu, Yu-Xin Zhao, Zhao-Min Tong, Jian-Hua He, Marie-Josée Fortin, Jun-Long Huang
{"title":"Assessing Assisted Natural Regeneration as a Cost-Efficient Mitigation for Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss in China","authors":"Ming-Li Qiu,&nbsp;Dian-Feng Liu,&nbsp;Yu-Xin Zhao,&nbsp;Zhao-Min Tong,&nbsp;Jian-Hua He,&nbsp;Marie-Josée Fortin,&nbsp;Jun-Long Huang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005257","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005257","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global deforestation results in climate change and biodiversity loss. Assisted natural regeneration (ANR) emerges as a promising approach to achieving global forest restoration targets, yet its potential and benefits for climate and biodiversity in China remain underexplored. Here, we assessed ANR potential across China and modeled spatial prioritization strategies targeting climate mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and cost savings, individually and in combination, as well as strategies considering spatial constraints from current forest restoration projects and fragmentation mitigation. From 1995 to 2015, 3.40 million hectares of land naturally regenerated into forests, with an additional 5.11 million hectares identified as potential regeneration areas, which could contribute to 12.41% of China's restoration goal in 2035. Spatial prioritization revealed limited overlap among the three single-objective ANR strategies, while a multi-objective optimization strategy emerged as the most effective solution to achieve synergies among goals. The top 30% of prioritized areas under the multi-objective strategy could sequester 46.54 gigatons of CO<sub>2</sub>, reduce extinction risks of forest-dependent species by 40.64%, and lower implementation costs by 31.55% compared to monoculture tree plantations. Our findings highlight that strategic spatial prioritization of ANR could mitigate climate change and biodiversity loss in a cost-efficient manner and have the potential to reinforce current forest restoration projects.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005257","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflated Negative Impacts of Temperature On Global Agricultural Yields Due To Ozone Omission
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005072
Xiang Liu, Haitong Zhe Sun, Haikun Wang
{"title":"Inflated Negative Impacts of Temperature On Global Agricultural Yields Due To Ozone Omission","authors":"Xiang Liu,&nbsp;Haitong Zhe Sun,&nbsp;Haikun Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005072","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change and ozone pollution are critical factors affecting global agricultural productivity. Meanwhile, current studies tend to overestimate the negative effects of warming on crop yields due to the influence of neglecting ozone effects. Here, by combining various observations, statistical crop models, and Earth system model projections, we reveal that the omitting ozone effects leads to a significant inflation of the damaging impacts of warming on global agricultural yields. For example, comparing with previous model, our model shows that the mid-century global warming impacts can decline by 1.99% (95% CI: 1.79%–3.24%) and 2.53% (95% CI: 2.03%–5.27%) for maize and soybean, respectively. Our findings indicate that incorporating ozone in statistical models is crucial for accurately assessing agricultural yield responses to temperature as well as projecting future climate change impacts on yields. This study contributes to a more holistic understanding of the intricate interactions between climate change, air pollution, and global crop production.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005072","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143581682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Contrasting Trends in Onset of Spring Green-Up Between Grasslands and Forests in China
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005379
Ying Hu, Bojie Fu, Katerina Michaelides, Martin G. De Kauwe, Jian Wang, Miaogen Shen, Wenmin Zhang, Yue Wang, Xiangming Xiao, Yuanwei Qin, Xiaoming Feng, Chaoyang Wu, Yongzhe Chen, Zhuangzhuang Wang, Lingfan Wan
{"title":"Contrasting Trends in Onset of Spring Green-Up Between Grasslands and Forests in China","authors":"Ying Hu,&nbsp;Bojie Fu,&nbsp;Katerina Michaelides,&nbsp;Martin G. De Kauwe,&nbsp;Jian Wang,&nbsp;Miaogen Shen,&nbsp;Wenmin Zhang,&nbsp;Yue Wang,&nbsp;Xiangming Xiao,&nbsp;Yuanwei Qin,&nbsp;Xiaoming Feng,&nbsp;Chaoyang Wu,&nbsp;Yongzhe Chen,&nbsp;Zhuangzhuang Wang,&nbsp;Lingfan Wan","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005379","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005379","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Spring vegetation phenology (green-up onset date, GUD) exhibits notable sensitivity to climate change, serving as a critical indicator of ecosystem dynamics. However, long-term changes and drivers of GUD remain unclear. Here we showed that satellite-derived GUD averaged over China forests and grasslands advanced by −1.3 ± 0.4 (mean ± SD) days decade<sup>−1</sup> during 1982–2022, but with contrasting trends between forests (−5.0 ± 0.6 days decade<sup>−1</sup>) and grasslands (2.8 ± 0.6 days decade<sup>−1</sup>), despite similarly increasing temperature and precipitation. Such contrasting trends were caused by different responses to higher preseason mean temperature and more total precipitation. Moreover, sensitivities of GUD to temperature and precipitation showed different patterns with respect to spatial gradient of background climate conditions between forests and grasslands. Our study elucidates different mechanisms behind forests and grasslands responding to climate change, which could help optimize land-management strategies and anticipate vegetation distribution under climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005379","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Meta-Analysis of Urban Non-Point Source Pollution From Road and Roof Runoff Across China
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005296
Yongxin Wang, Chunlin Li, Jianmin Qiao, Yuanman Hu, Qian Zhang, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater
{"title":"Meta-Analysis of Urban Non-Point Source Pollution From Road and Roof Runoff Across China","authors":"Yongxin Wang,&nbsp;Chunlin Li,&nbsp;Jianmin Qiao,&nbsp;Yuanman Hu,&nbsp;Qian Zhang,&nbsp;Jiabo Yin,&nbsp;Louise Slater","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005296","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005296","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Urban non-point source (NPS) pollution has become an important issue affecting water quality, but current research has focused mainly on local scales and has lacked systematic evaluations at large spatial scales. Here, a meta-analysis was conducted to explore the characteristics of runoff pollution indicators (TSS: total suspended solids, TN: total nitrogen, TP: total phosphorus, and COD: chemical oxygen demand) on the roads and roofs in 41 Chinese cities, and a boosted regression tree model was used to reveal the geographical differences in pollution levels and the contribution rates of their influencing factors. The results revealed that the average event mean concentrations (EMCs) of TSS (326 mg/L), TP (0.6 mg/L), and COD (160 mg/L) were significantly greater in road runoff than in roof runoff. Among them, the TSS concentrations were nearly four times greater than those in roof runoff, whereas the TP and COD concentrations were 3.2 and 2.3 times greater, respectively. Urban NPS pollution is severe in China, and the concentrations of runoff pollutants far exceed those in the USA, Germany, and France. There were significant geographical differences in urban NPS pollution due to the influences of air quality (35% relative contribution), climate conditions (15%), and human activities (45%). Prominent pollution from road runoff was observed in the Central region, more severe pollution from roof runoff was observed in the Northern region, and relatively light pollution was observed in the Southern and North-Eastern regions. This study provides the first synthesis of NPS road and roof runoff pollution levels in Chinese cities on a large spatial scale, resulting in scientific guidance for urban stormwater management and NPS pollution control.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005296","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143571271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nutrient Loading From a Sustainably Certified Aquaculture Operation Dwarfs Annual Nutrient Inputs From a Large Multi-Use Watershed, Lake Yojoa, Honduras
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004807
J. M. Fadum, M. R. V. Ross, E. A. Tenorio, C. A. Barby, E. K. Hall
{"title":"Nutrient Loading From a Sustainably Certified Aquaculture Operation Dwarfs Annual Nutrient Inputs From a Large Multi-Use Watershed, Lake Yojoa, Honduras","authors":"J. M. Fadum,&nbsp;M. R. V. Ross,&nbsp;E. A. Tenorio,&nbsp;C. A. Barby,&nbsp;E. K. Hall","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004807","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004807","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Net-pen aquaculture is a popular and increasingly prevalent method for producing large quantities of low-fat protein in freshwater ecosystems across the tropics. While there are numerable social and economic advantages associated with aquaculture, there are also challenges related to the environmental sustainability of aquaculture operations which supply pens with externally produced feed. For example, excessive nutrient loading, which can drive rapid eutrophication in aquatic ecosystems, is a major risk. In this study, we compare the estimated annual nutrient loads from the six principal tributaries that contribute to Lake Yojoa to the estimated nutrient load of a large net-pen Tilapia operation located in the central region of the lake. The Tilapia farm was responsible for ∼86% of the nitrogen (N) and ∼95% of the phosphorus (P) contributions to Lake Yojoa for the year of our study. This excessive nutrient loading of both N and P suggests that this single aquaculture operation, more so than changes in nutrient inputs from the watershed, was responsible for the previously documented deterioration of Lake Yojoa. This study shows the potential for net-pen aquaculture to have significant negative impacts on freshwater ecosystems, even when operations meet the current sustainability certifications standards. We suggest shifts in metrics that could improve the impact of the certification process so that best practices can reduce the impact of net-pen aquaculture on freshwater ecosystems and arrive at the intended goal of long-term environmental sustainability. <i>La versión en español de esta publicación se encuentra disponible en los materiales suplementarios</i>.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004807","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143554851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial Heterogeneity of Plant-Level CCUS Investment Decisions in China's Cement Industry Under Various Policy Incentives
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004951
Yifan Mao, Kai Li, Jizhe Li, Xian Zhang, Jing-Li Fan
{"title":"Spatial Heterogeneity of Plant-Level CCUS Investment Decisions in China's Cement Industry Under Various Policy Incentives","authors":"Yifan Mao,&nbsp;Kai Li,&nbsp;Jizhe Li,&nbsp;Xian Zhang,&nbsp;Jing-Li Fan","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004951","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004951","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) is widely regarded as a critical technology for achieving deep decarbonization in the cement industry. However, limited research has focused on its plant-level CCUS investment decisions, especially considering geographic heterogeneity based on the national source-sink matching optimization. This study develops an integrated framework that combines source-sink matching with a real option model to investigate CCUS investment decisions under various incentive policies. The findings show that the critical carbon price varies significantly across regions in China, ranging from 55 to 950 CNY/<i>t</i>, with 297 (46% of retrofittable cement plants) falling between 600 and 800 CNY/<i>t</i>. Northeast China, benefiting from favorable storage conditions and enhanced oil recovery, exhibits a lower average critical carbon price of 104 CNY/<i>t</i>. In contrast, Central China, despite its substantial CO<sub>2</sub> storage amount (18% of the national total), encounters a higher average critical carbon price of 564 CNY/<i>t</i> CO<sub>2</sub> due to significant source-sink matching distances. Notably, the offshore saline aquifer storage in the Southeastern coast could account for 17% of the national total, corresponding to an average critical carbon price of 660 CNY/t. Furthermore, implementing different policy incentives can enhance the immediate adoption of CCUS from 93 to 294 (13% to 46% of retrofittable cement plants).</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004951","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143554752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploratory Scoping of Place-Based Opportunities for Convergence Research
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004908
Casey Helgeson, Lisa Auermuller, DeeDee Bennett Gayle, Sönke Dangendorf, Elisabeth A. Gilmore, Klaus Keller, Robert E. Kopp, Jorge Lorenzo-Trueba, Michael Oppenheimer, Kathleen Parrish, Victoria Ramenzoni, Nancy Tuana, Thomas Wahl
{"title":"Exploratory Scoping of Place-Based Opportunities for Convergence Research","authors":"Casey Helgeson,&nbsp;Lisa Auermuller,&nbsp;DeeDee Bennett Gayle,&nbsp;Sönke Dangendorf,&nbsp;Elisabeth A. Gilmore,&nbsp;Klaus Keller,&nbsp;Robert E. Kopp,&nbsp;Jorge Lorenzo-Trueba,&nbsp;Michael Oppenheimer,&nbsp;Kathleen Parrish,&nbsp;Victoria Ramenzoni,&nbsp;Nancy Tuana,&nbsp;Thomas Wahl","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004908","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004908","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Harnessing scientific research to address societal challenges requires careful alignment of expertise, resources, and research questions with real-world needs, timelines, and constraints. In the case of place-based research, studies can avoid misalignment when grounded in the realities of specific locations and conducted in collaboration with knowledgeable local partners. But literature on best practices for such research is underdeveloped on how to identify appropriate locations and partners. In practice, these research-design choices are sometimes made based on convenience or prior experience—a strategy labeled opportunism. Here we examine a deliberative and exploratory approach in contrast to default opportunism. We introduce a general framework for scoping place-based opportunities for research and engagement. We apply the framework to identify climate-adaptation planning decisions, rooted in specific communities, around which to organize research and engagement in a large project addressing coastal climate risks in the Northeast US. The framework asks project personnel to negotiate explicit project goals, identify corresponding evaluation criteria, and assess opportunities against criteria within an iterative cycle of listening to needs, assessing options, prioritizing actions, and refining goals. In the application, we elicit a broad range of objectives from project personnel. We find that a structured process offers opportunities to collaboratively operationalize notions of equity and justice. We find some objectives in tension—including equity objectives—indicating trade-offs that other projects may also need to navigate. We reflect on challenges encountered in the application and on near-term costs and benefits of the exploratory process.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004908","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143555064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global and Regional Marine Ecosystem Models Reveal Key Uncertainties in Climate Change Projections
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005537
Tyler D. Eddy, Ryan F. Heneghan, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Cheryl S. Harrison, Derek P. Tittensor, Heike K. Lotze, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Daniele Bianchi, Matthias Büchner, Catherine Bulman, William W. L. Cheung, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, Jason D. Everett, Denisse Fierro-Arcos, Eric D. Galbraith, Didier Gascuel, Jerome Guiet, Steve Mackinson, Olivier Maury, Susa Niiranen, Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Chiara Piroddi, Hubert du Pontavice, Jonathan Reum, Anthony J. Richardson, Jacob Schewe, Lynne Shannon, Yunne-Jai Shin, Jeroen Steenbeek, Jan Volkholz, Nicola D. Walker, Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats, Julia L. Blanchard
{"title":"Global and Regional Marine Ecosystem Models Reveal Key Uncertainties in Climate Change Projections","authors":"Tyler D. Eddy,&nbsp;Ryan F. Heneghan,&nbsp;Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz,&nbsp;Elizabeth A. Fulton,&nbsp;Cheryl S. Harrison,&nbsp;Derek P. Tittensor,&nbsp;Heike K. Lotze,&nbsp;Kelly Ortega-Cisneros,&nbsp;Camilla Novaglio,&nbsp;Daniele Bianchi,&nbsp;Matthias Büchner,&nbsp;Catherine Bulman,&nbsp;William W. L. Cheung,&nbsp;Villy Christensen,&nbsp;Marta Coll,&nbsp;Jason D. Everett,&nbsp;Denisse Fierro-Arcos,&nbsp;Eric D. Galbraith,&nbsp;Didier Gascuel,&nbsp;Jerome Guiet,&nbsp;Steve Mackinson,&nbsp;Olivier Maury,&nbsp;Susa Niiranen,&nbsp;Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos,&nbsp;Juliano Palacios-Abrantes,&nbsp;Chiara Piroddi,&nbsp;Hubert du Pontavice,&nbsp;Jonathan Reum,&nbsp;Anthony J. Richardson,&nbsp;Jacob Schewe,&nbsp;Lynne Shannon,&nbsp;Yunne-Jai Shin,&nbsp;Jeroen Steenbeek,&nbsp;Jan Volkholz,&nbsp;Nicola D. Walker,&nbsp;Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats,&nbsp;Julia L. Blanchard","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005537","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005537","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is affecting ocean temperature, acidity, currents, and primary production, causing shifts in species distributions, marine ecosystems, and ultimately fisheries. Earth system models simulate climate change impacts on physical and biogeochemical properties of future oceans under varying emissions scenarios. Coupling these simulations with an ensemble of global marine ecosystem models has indicated broad decreases of fish biomass with warming. However, regional details of these impacts remain much more uncertain. Here, we employ CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate change impact projections using two Earth system models coupled with four regional and nine global marine ecosystem models in 10 ocean regions to evaluate model agreement at regional scales. We find that models developed at different scales can lead to stark differences in biomass projections. On average, global models projected greater biomass declines by the end of the 21st century than regional models. For both global and regional models, greater biomass declines were projected using CMIP6 than CMIP5 simulations. Global models projected biomass declines in 86% of CMIP5 simulations for ocean regions compared to 50% for regional models in the same ocean regions. In CMIP6 simulations, all global model simulations projected biomass declines in ocean regions by 2100, while regional models projected biomass declines in 67% of the ocean region simulations. Our analysis suggests that improved understanding of the causes of differences between global and regional marine ecosystem model climate change projections is needed, alongside observational evaluation of modeled responses.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005537","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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