Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Role of Initial Conditions and Meteorological Drought in Soil Moisture Drought Propagation: An Event-Based Causal Analysis Over South Asia","authors":"Amitesh Gupta,&nbsp;L. Karthikeyan","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004674","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004674","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The role of meteorological droughts and initial conditions (land and atmosphere) in soil moisture drought (SMD) propagation are not yet fully understood. This work uses a drought event-based causal framework to investigate the relative importance of meteorological drought (MD) duration and intensity and initial conditions that result in surface and rootzone SMD, considering their event-level propagation time (PT) over South Asia. Initially, spatial variability of drought propagation is assessed by the Propagation Ratio (PR) computed based on MD counts that trigger SMD at various lags. PR depicts 2–3 months slower rootzone propagation than at surface. The gradual decrease in PR with increasing regional aridity indicates faster propagation over humid regions. The causal impact of initial conditions and MD parameters on propagating SMD are evaluated using normalized mutual information and a newly proposed normalized conditional mutual information. We found greater importance of triggering MD parameters followed by initial soil moisture condition on propagating SMD. This behavior is more evident for the surface layer propagation at shorter PT. There is a confounding effect of initial atmospheric conditions on drought propagation through initial soil moisture, depicting the significance of land-atmosphere interactions prior to propagation. In the rootzone propagation, initial soil moisture has a greater influence on propagation, especially at longer PT, indicating the significance of soil moisture persistence. Stronger causal links obtained through the joint influence of MD parameters on SMD suggest the importance of accounting for MD duration and intensity simultaneously, which are not considered in drought index-based propagation studies.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004674","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142524711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"High Resolution (30 m) Burned Area Product Improves the Ability for Carbon Emission Estimation in Africa","authors":"Baoye Qi,&nbsp;Zhaoming Zhang,&nbsp;Tengfei Long,&nbsp;Guojin He,&nbsp;Guizhou Wang,&nbsp;Yan Peng,&nbsp;Zekun Xu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005051","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Fire significantly contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. The current global burned area (BA) products mainly have coarse native spatial resolution, which leads to underestimation of global BA and carbon emissions from biomass burning. Performances of BA products in Africa from GABAM (30 m), MCD64A1 (500 m), GFED4s (0.25°), FireCCI51 (250 m), and GFED5 (0.25°) were compared. From 2014 to 2020, GFED5 detected the most BA, 1.58 times more than GABAM during the same period. GABAM detected 0.09 Mkm² more burned area than FireCCI51 on average. From 2014 to 2016, GABAM detected an average of 2.99 Mkm² of BA in Africa, which was 1.03 times more than GFED4s. From 2014 to 2021, the average African BA derived from GABAM was 2.89 Mkm², 1.22 times more than MCD64A1. The increase in BA will inevitably lead to an increase in the estimation of carbon emissions from biomass burning. Based on GABAM products and GFED framework, we estimated the average vegetation burning carbon emissions in Africa from 2014 to 2021 to be 1113.25 Tg, which is higher than GFED4s' carbon emissions in the same time period. This shows that the use of high-resolution (30 m) burned area products to estimate carbon emissions can effectively avoid the underestimation of overall fire carbon emissions.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005051","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142524673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projecting Large Fires in the Western US With an Interpretable and Accurate Hybrid Machine Learning Method","authors":"Fa Li,&nbsp;Qing Zhu,&nbsp;Kunxiaojia Yuan,&nbsp;Fujiang Ji,&nbsp;Arindam Paul,&nbsp;Peng Lee,&nbsp;Volker C. Radeloff,&nbsp;Min Chen","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004588","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004588","url":null,"abstract":"<p>More frequent and widespread large fires are occurring in the western United States (US), yet reliable methods for predicting these fires, particularly with extended lead times and a high spatial resolution, remain challenging. In this study, we proposed an interpretable and accurate hybrid machine learning (ML) model, that explicitly represented the controls of fuel flammability, fuel availability, and human suppression effects on fires. The model demonstrated notable accuracy with a <i>F</i>₁-score of 0.846 ± 0.012, surpassing process-driven fire danger indices and four commonly used ML models by up to 40% and 9%, respectively. More importantly, the ML model showed remarkably higher interpretability relative to other ML models. Specifically, by demystifying the “black box” of each ML model using the explainable AI techniques, we identified substantial structural differences across ML fire models, even among those with similar accuracy. The relationships between fires and their drivers, identified by our model, were aligned closer with established fire physical principles. The ML structural discrepancy led to diverse fire predictions and our model predictions exhibited greater consistency with actual fire occurrence. With the highly interpretable and accurate model, we revealed the strong compound effects from multiple climate variables related to evaporative demand, energy release component, temperature, and wind speed, on the dynamics of large fires and megafires in the western US. Our findings highlight the importance of assessing the structural integrity of models in addition to their accuracy. They also underscore the critical need to address the rise in compound climate extremes linked to large wildfires.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004588","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142524675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Critical Role of Hydrological Distance in Shaping Nutrient Dynamics Along the Watershed-Lake Continuum","authors":"Jiacong Huang,&nbsp;George B. Arhonditsis,&nbsp;Yinjun Zhang,&nbsp;Shuai Zhang,&nbsp;Yulai Ji,&nbsp;Hans W. Paerl,&nbsp;Erik Jeppesen,&nbsp;Junfeng Gao","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004860","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004860","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Terrestrial hydrological and nutrient cycles are subjected to major disturbances by agricultural operations and urbanization that profoundly influence freshwater resources. Non-point source pollution is one of the primary causes for water quality deterioration, and thus an emerging imperative in limnology is establishing empirical models that connect watershed attributes and hydrological drivers with lake nutrient dynamics. Here, we compiled three nation-wide nutrient, meteorological, and watershed-landscape data sets, to develop Generalized Linear Models that predict lake phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations as a function of the surrounding watershed characteristics within various hydrological distances across 104 Chinese lakes and reservoirs. Our national-scale investigation revealed that lake nutrient concentrations can be satisfactorily predicted by proxies of natural drivers and anthropogenic activities, reflecting the properties of the surrounding watershed. Counter to previous studies, we found that China's lake nutrient concentrations strongly depend on watershed characteristics within a hydrological distance of less than 45 km rather than the entire watershed. Furthermore, extensive human activities in watersheds not only compromise our predictive capacity, but also increase the hydrological distance that is relevant to predict lake nutrients. This national-scale characterization can inform one of the most contentious issues in the context of China's lake management, that is, the determination of the extent of the nearshore area, where nutrient control should be prioritized. As far as we know, our study represents the first attempt to apply the concept of hydrological distance and establish statistical models that can delineate the critical spatial domain primarily responsible for the nutrient conditions along the watershed-lake continuum.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004860","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142443443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating Fishing Exploitation Rates to Simulate Global Catches and Biomass Changes of Pelagic and Demersal Fish","authors":"P. D. van Denderen,&nbsp;N. Jacobsen,&nbsp;K. H. Andersen,&nbsp;J. L. Blanchard,&nbsp;C. Novaglio,&nbsp;C. A. Stock,&nbsp;C. M. Petrik","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004604","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004604","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Robust projections of future trends in global fish biomass, production and catches are needed for informed fisheries policy in a changing climate. Trust in future projections, however, relies on establishing that models can accurately simulate past relationships between exploitation rates and ecosystem states. In addition, historical simulations are important to describe how the oceans have changed due to fishing. Here we use fisheries catch, catch-only assessment models and effort data to estimate regional fishing exploitation levels, defined as the fishing mortality relative to fishing mortality at maximum sustainable yield (F/F_MSY). These estimates are given for large pelagic, forage and demersal fish types across all large marine ecosystems and the high seas between 1961 and 2004; and with a ‘ramp-up’ between 1841 and 1960. We find that global exploitation rates for large pelagic and demersal fish consistently exceed those for forage fish and peak in the late 1980s. We use the rates to globally simulate historical fishing patterns in a mechanistic fish community model. The modeled catch aligns with the reconstructed catch, both for total catch and catch distribution by functional type. Simulations show a clear deviation from an unfished model state, with a 25% reduction in biomass in large pelagic and demersal fish in shelf regions in recent years and a 50% increase in forage fish, primarily due to reduced predation. The simulations can set a baseline for assessing the effect of climate change relative to fishing. The results highlight the influential role of fishing as a primary driver of global fish community dynamics.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004604","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142447697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Negative Asymmetric Response of Pantropical Gross Primary Productivity to Precipitation Anomalies","authors":"Lei Fan,&nbsp;Guanyu Dong,&nbsp;Philippe Ciais,&nbsp;Xiangming Xiao,&nbsp;Jingfeng Xiao,&nbsp;Xiuzhi Chen,&nbsp;Yiqi Luo,&nbsp;Shuli Niu,&nbsp;Fei Jiang,&nbsp;Frédéric Frappart,&nbsp;Jean-Pierre Wigneron,&nbsp;Xing Li,&nbsp;Tianxiang Cui,&nbsp;Li Pan,&nbsp;Rasmus Fensholt","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004760","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004760","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The carbon sink in pantropical biomes play a crucial role in modulating the inter-annual variations of global terrestrial carbon balance and is threatened by extreme climate events. However, it has not been carefully examined whether an increase in tropical gross primary productivity (GPP) can compensate the decrease during precipitation anomalies. Using the asymmetry index (AI) and multiple GPP products, we assessed responses of pantropical GPP to precipitation anomalies during 2001–2022. Positive AI indicates that GPP increases are greater than GPP decreases during precipitation anomalies, and vice versa. Our results showed an average negative pantropical GPP asymmetry, that is, GPP decreases exceeded the GPP increases during precipitation anomalies. In addition, a positive AI was found in tropical hyper-arid and arid regions, which is opposite to the negative AI observed in tropical semi-arid, sub-humid, and humid regions. This suggest that tropical GPP asymmetry changes from positive to negative as the moisture increases. Notably, a significant decreasing trend of negative AI was observed over the entire tropical region, indicating that the negative effect of inter-annual precipitation variations on pantropical vegetation productivity has enhanced. Considering the model predicted increasing climate variability and extremes, the negative impact of precipitation variability on tropical carbon cycle may continue to intensify. Lastly, the divergence in AI estimates among multiple GPP products highlight the need to further improve our understanding of the response of tropical carbon cycle to climate changes, especially for the tropical humid regions.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004760","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142438972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring Global Data Sets to Detect Changes in Soil Microbial Carbon and Nitrogen Over Three Decades","authors":"Wenjiao Shi,&nbsp;Decai Gao,&nbsp;Zhen Zhang,&nbsp;Jinzhi Ding,&nbsp;Chunhong Zhao,&nbsp;Huimin Wang,&nbsp;Frank Hagedorn","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004733","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004733","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Understanding the temporal dynamics of soil microbial biomass is crucial for assessing soil ecosystem functions and services, yet these dynamics are globally uncertain. Here, we compiled a data set of soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and nitrogen (MBN) from 1493 studies between 1988 and 2019 to elucidate their temporal trends and potential drivers. Results showed that global MBC and MBN significantly decreased by 0.033 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ and 0.007 Mg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ at 0–30 cm soil depth, between 1988 and 2019, respectively, which might be primarily attributed to the warming of the climate, the increase in global precipitation, and reduction of soil organic carbon (SOC) stock. The rate of decline in MBC and MBN showed a non-linear trend: following a decline from 1988 to 1999, it slowed down until 2014, likely due to the global warming hiatus. Afterward, the pace of decline increased again from 2015 to 2019. Boreal biomes experienced the largest decrease in soil microbial biomass with the reduction rate of MBC being 4.3 times higher than in temperate biomes, showing a higher sensitivity in boreal biomes to climate change. Grassland ecosystems also exhibited greater reductions, possibly driven by their degradation. These findings shed valuable insights on the long-term dynamics of soil microbial biomass on a global scale over the last three decades. Furthermore, this study underscores the importance of preserving soil microbial biomass as a key strategy to mitigate the adverse effects of future climate change, thereby sustaining ecosystem health and resilience.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004733","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142429958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"¿Libre de la Maleza Estatista? Assessing Neoliberal Promises and Water Markets in Chile","authors":"Benji Reade Malagueño,&nbsp;Paolo D'Odorico","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004963","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004963","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Neoliberal approaches to water governance, pioneered in Chile in the 1980s, are reappearing today on the centerstage of the water policy debate. While advocates claim that strong property rights, limits on government authority, and water markets can enhance environmental sustainability, efficiency, neutrality, and equity in the distribution of water rights, limited empirical evidence exists on whether neoliberal policies have delivered on these key promises. In this paper, we combine hydrological analysis with a nationwide data set on government water rights allocations between 1981 and 2021 to determine when and where water has been allocated beyond sustainable limits. We then integrate water market transaction and agricultural data to assess how allocations and scarcity conditions relate to spatial and temporal patterns in irrigation, crop distribution, and water market activity. Our results indicate that 30% of catchments are overallocated, and that continued government allocations of water rights during scarcity exacerbate already-high inequalities in the distribution of water. We find no evidence that scarcity or water markets induced improvements in numerous efficiency metrics. Overall, our results support growing claims that the neoliberal water model fails to fulfill its key promises, notably to the detriment of nature and marginalized rural communities.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004963","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Wind Erosion Reduction Driven by Changing Climate and Land Use","authors":"Ranhao Sun,&nbsp;Hongbin He,&nbsp;Yongcai Jing,&nbsp;Song Leng,&nbsp;Guocheng Yang,&nbsp;Yihe Lü,&nbsp;Pasquale Borrelli,&nbsp;Liding Chen,&nbsp;Bojie Fu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004930","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While significant progress has been achieved in researching water erosion, our understanding of global patterns and the magnitude of wind soil erosion remains limited. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment using the revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ) of the global rates and long-term trends (1982–2019) of wind erosion using a spatially explicit (0.05° × 0.05°) quantitative model. On average, in this study global wind erosion caused 312.5 Pg yr⁻¹ of soil loss, with a decreasing trend of 1.04 ± 0.48 Pg yr⁻¹ (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) during 1982–2019. Excluding stable regions, approximately 36% of the modeled areas exhibit a significant decrease in wind erosion, accounting for 3.13 ± 0.18 Pg yr⁻¹, while only 9% experience a notable increase, amounting for 1.83 ± 0.16 Pg yr⁻¹. The decrease of wind erosion primarily occurs in the southern hemispheres. Notably, wind erosion decreases considerably in grassland and cropland, while it remains unchanged in dryland. Although grassland and cropland account for only 11% and 1.8% of the total erosion, they contribute to 68% and 17% of the total erosion reduction, respectively. This study highlights global wind stilling and vegetation greening as important factors contributing to the decline in wind erosion and offers valuable insights into the intricate relationship between climate change and terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon sequestration and agricultural productivity.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004930","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Crops Feed Rain to Drylands in Northwest China","authors":"Qiang An,&nbsp;Arie Staal,&nbsp;Liu Liu,&nbsp;Yongming Cheng,&nbsp;Jing Liu,&nbsp;Guanhua Huang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004791","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004791","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As a key region supplementing China's limited croplands, Northwest China has undergone rapid cropland expansion over the past decades to satisfy rising food demand from population growth and socio-economic development. Although cropland expansion may overconsume local water resources in general, in Northwest China, increased precipitation and enhanced glacier melt have increased the water available for croplands. Counterintuitively, the enhanced evapotranspiration (ET) resulting from this cropland expansion could benefit remote ecologically vulnerable natural vegetation through atmospheric moisture recycling. In this study, we used a moisture tracking model to quantify contributions of croplands and cropland expansion to local precipitation and the consequent precipitation supply to natural vegetation in Northwest China. We found that the croplands contributed 27.69 billion m³/year (2.13%) of regional total precipitation and supplied 17.30 billion m³/year (2.39%) of precipitation over natural vegetation, and the cropland expansion resulted in a net increase of 80.25 million m³/year (1.07% of the total increase) in regional precipitation and 36.23 million m³/year (4.56% of the total increase) in precipitation supply for natural vegetation. Among different types of natural vegetation, grasslands received the most precipitation supply due to its vast area, followed by forests and shrublands. The more arid regions experienced not only faster rates of cropland expansion but also obtained a greater increase in regional precipitation and precipitation supply to natural vegetation. Our study quantifies the ecological impacts of cropland expansion through moisture recycling in Northwest China. This shows the complexities of water competition between agricultural development and ecological conservation in drylands and elsewhere.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004791","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}