Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Climate Change Impacts on Flood Pulse Characteristics in the Barotse Floodplain, Zambia","authors":"E. J. Mroz,&nbsp;M. W. Smith,&nbsp;T. D. M. Willis,&nbsp;M. A. Trigg,&nbsp;H. Malawo,&nbsp;C. Chalo,&nbsp;M. Sinkombo,&nbsp;C. J. Thomas","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005471","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005471","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tens of millions of livelihoods depend on floodplains, making them especially vulnerable to climate change. However, understanding how annual floods may change and impact local vulnerabilities remains limited. Daily precipitation and temperature projections were obtained from five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) General Circulation Models in the Inter-Sectoral Model Inter-Comparison Project (ISIMIP). These were input into a coupled hydrological-hydraulic model of the Barotse Floodplain, Zambia to obtain data on flood pulse timing, duration, and magnitude. Future decades (2030s, 2050s, 2070s) under three Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs 1–2.6, 3–7.0, 5–8.5) were compared with baseline data from the 1990s and 2000s to assess the impact of climate change. Climatic indices were also correlated with flood pulse characteristics to assess whether a driver of changes could be determined. Future floodwaves in the Barotse showed reduced durations and magnitudes, and altered timings of flood rise and recession compared to baseline periods. These differences were significant in the mid-to far-future. Large areas of the floodplain experience 1-to-2 month reductions in inundation duration, and some areas experienced no inundation in a hydrological year for the first time. The northern Barotse Floodplain, western escarpment, and Luena Valley exhibit the greatest sensitivity to future changes. The Barotse Floodplain will become increasingly arid under all climate scenarios, exacerbating existing challenges for transhumance communities dependent on floods, who face periodic food insecurity, malnutrition, and limited healthcare access. Intensified drought conditions under future climate change will undermine the resilience of local livelihoods, reflecting broader vulnerabilities faced by floodplain-dependent communities globally.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005471","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prioritization of Research on Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate","authors":"Joel Lisonbee,&nbsp;Britt Parker,&nbsp;Erica Fleishman,&nbsp;Trent W. Ford,&nbsp;R. Kyle Bocinsky,&nbsp;Gretel Follingstad,&nbsp;Abby G. Frazier,&nbsp;Zachary H. Hoylman,&nbsp;Amy R. Hudson,&nbsp;John W. Nielsen-Gammon,&nbsp;Natalie A. Umphlett,&nbsp;Elliot Wickham,&nbsp;Aparna Bamzai-Dodson,&nbsp;Royce Fontenot,&nbsp;Brian Fuchs,&nbsp;John Hammond,&nbsp;Jeffrey E. Herrick,&nbsp;Mike Hobbins,&nbsp;Andrew Hoell,&nbsp;Jacob Jones,&nbsp;Erin Lane,&nbsp;Zachary Leasor,&nbsp;Yongqiang Liu,&nbsp;Jason A. Otkin,&nbsp;Amanda Sheffield,&nbsp;Dennis Todey,&nbsp;Roger Pulwarty","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005276","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005276","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather that leads to hydrological imbalance. Drought assessments determine the characteristics, severity, and impacts of a drought. Climate change adds conceptual and quantitative challenges to traditional drought assessments. This paper highlights the challenges of assessing drought in a climate made non-stationary by human activities or natural variability. To address these challenges, we then identify 10 key research priorities for advancing drought science and improving assessments in a changing climate. The priorities focus on improving drought indicators to account for non-stationarity, evaluating drought impacts and their trends, addressing regional differences in non-stationarity, determining the physical drivers of drought and how they are changing, capturing precipitation variability, and understanding the drivers of aridification. Ultimately, improved drought assessments will inform better risk management, adaptation strategies, and planning, especially in areas where climate change significantly alters drought dynamics. This perspective offers a path toward more accurate and effective drought management in a non-stationary climate system.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005276","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Flood Hazards in a Warming Climate Could Be Amplified by Changes in Spatiotemporal Patterns and Mechanisms of Water Available for Runoff","authors":"Hongxiang Yan,&nbsp;Zhuoran Duan,&nbsp;Mark S. Wigmosta,&nbsp;Ning Sun,&nbsp;L. Ruby Leung,&nbsp;Travis B. Thurber,&nbsp;Ethan D. Gutmann,&nbsp;Jeffrey R. Arnold","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005619","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005619","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Prior research on climate change impacts on flooding has primarily focused on changes in extreme rainfall magnitudes, often neglecting snow processes and spatiotemporal storm patterns, such as hyetograph shapes and areal reduction factors (ARFs). This study examines projected changes in extreme water available for runoff (<i>W</i>) events in two snow-dominated basins in the western United States: the Yakima River Basin (YRB) in Washington State and the Walker River Basin (WRB) spanning the California-Nevada border. We analyze changes in <i>W</i> magnitudes, mechanisms, hyetograph shapes, and ARFs, and study their compounded impacts on flood hazard. Our findings suggest increased extreme <i>W</i> magnitudes across a large portion of the basins, with steeper or flatter hyetographs, and higher ARF values under the future climate. These changes are driven by a shift from seasonal snowmelt to more rain-on-snow events at higher elevations and by increased rainfall at lower elevations. We then use a single event-based rainfall-runoff model to estimate flood hazard changes based on extreme <i>W</i> magnitudes, hyetograph shapes, ARFs, and their compounded impacts. Our analysis reveals that focusing solely on the magnitude of changes in extreme <i>W</i> can significantly underestimate future flood hazards and uncertainties. Ignoring future changes in spatiotemporal patterns can underestimate future flood hazards by 63% and underestimate the uncertainty in future flood events by 18% in the WRB. These results underscore the necessity of incorporating spatiotemporal dynamics into future flood hazard assessments to provide a more accurate evaluation of potential impacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005619","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143521856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can Restoring Tidal Wetlands Reduce Estuarine Nuisance Flooding of Coasts Under Future Sea-Level Rise?","authors":"M. W. Brand,&nbsp;H. L. Diefenderfer,&nbsp;C. E. Cornu,&nbsp;M. A. McKeon,&nbsp;C. N. Janousek,&nbsp;A. B. Borde,&nbsp;T. D. Souza,&nbsp;M. E. Keogh,&nbsp;C. A. Brown,&nbsp;S. D. Bridgham","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004149","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wetland restoration is an increasingly popular nature-based method for flood risk mitigation in coastal communities. In this study, we present a novel method using hydrodynamic modeling and harmonic analysis to quantify wetlands' ability to reduce future nuisance flooding. The method leverages a hydrodynamic model calibrated to present day data and was run for a range of future sea-level rise (SLR) and wetland restoration scenarios to quantify changes to tidal harmonic amplitudes and phases. The harmonic constituents are used to generate water surface elevations over a time period of interest (e.g., one year) and compared to critical exceedance thresholds such as levee elevations. Then, changes to nuisance flooding are calculated by counting the number of hours critical thresholds are exceeded under different SLR and wetland restoration scenarios. We applied the method to Coos Bay, Oregon, USA as a test case. We found restoration reduces the number of hours nuisance flooding occurs in downtown Coos Bay from 15 hr (present day conditions) to 0 hr (fully restored condition) under median SLR (82 cm by 2100). Restoration had spatially variable impacts on reducing peak flood elevations with minimal impacts near the estuary mouth and greatest impact 32 km inland. The effectiveness of restoration was heavily dependent on future SLR. Restoration was maximally effective in 2050 under all SLR scenarios, less effective in 2100 under median SLR, and not effective under high SLR. Modeling results suggest increased tidal prism and accommodation space are driving restoration-associated reductions in tidal amplitudes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004149","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143513639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of Initial Soil Organic Carbon in Grassland on the Sensitivity of Carbon Changes to Climate After Grassland-to-Cropland Conversion","authors":"Pengpeng Dou,&nbsp;Jie Wang,&nbsp;Tianyu Cai,&nbsp;Zhengzhou Miao,&nbsp;Xu Wang,&nbsp;Junyi Liang,&nbsp;Ping Li,&nbsp;Jiangwen Fan,&nbsp;Shiming Tang,&nbsp;Xiangming Xiao,&nbsp;Lizhu Guo,&nbsp;Jing Huang,&nbsp;Qian Gao,&nbsp;Chao Chen,&nbsp;Kesi Liu,&nbsp;Kun Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005249","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005249","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The conversion of grassland to cropland alters the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) induced by grassland reclamation are poorly quantified due to the scarcity of large-scale-sampling data. Through paired sampling of 101 cropland and 101 grassland plots, this study examined changes in SOC resulting from conversion of grassland to cropland in an agropastoral ecotone of northern China. Results showed that grassland reclamation caused an average decrease of 16.07% in the surface (0–10 cm) SOC content. Over 80% of this region experienced SOC loss, while less than 20% showed increased SOC. As grassland soil organic carbon increased, the sensitivity of soil organic carbon changes to climate change following grassland-to-cropland conversion decreased, while the positive effects of changes in water flux and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) strengthened. The most important factor influencing the change in SOC after grassland reclamation was the change in NDVI in low and medium SOC grasslands and the change in vegetation transpiration in high-SOC grasslands. This study found spatial heterogeneity in the effects of grassland reclamation on SOC at the regional scale and offers insights into enhancing regional SOC sequestration.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005249","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143481421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying Biodiversity's Present and Future: Current Potentials and SSP-RCP-Driven Land Use Impacts","authors":"Yilin Cheng,&nbsp;Hongxi Liu,&nbsp;Jizeng Du,&nbsp;Yujun Yi","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005191","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Biodiversity, vital for ecosystem stability and human well-being, faces threats from land use and climate change. Accurately predicting these effects is crucial for effective conservation. High emission development scenario is commonly viewed as the most detrimental to biodiversity. However, recent researches suggest a more complex relationship between development paths and biodiversity outcomes. Our study addresses this by using an emergy-based approach to estimate current provincial-level biodiversity potential and project future species richness losses (amphibians, mammals, and birds) across climate zones and provincial divisions under various SSP-RCP scenarios for 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090. The results revealed significant regional variations in China's biodiversity potential, with the highest in southwestern provinces. Future land use trends indicate increased construction land and barren alongside a decline in grasslands, leading to considerable habitat loss and fragmentation under various scenarios, stressing conservation needs. Future biodiversity loss follows the Hu line and climate zones, with significant decreases in the south and humid regions. Land-use changes could reduce species richness by 1–6 per 10 km grid cell. High-emission scenario SSP585 do not necessarily have the most detrimental effects on biodiversity and different scenarios require targeted focus on specific climatic zones and provinces. These findings underscore that different scenarios require targeted conservation efforts in specific regions sensitive to biodiversity loss. Our study provides a scientific foundation for these targeted efforts, ensuring that regions are prioritized under various future scenarios. This approach aids in developing effective conservation strategies amidst the complex interplay of land use dynamics and climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005191","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143456145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is Reservoir Storage Effectively Utilized in the Southeastern US? A Regional Assessment to Improve Water Supply Availability Considering Potential Storage and Flood Scenarios","authors":"J. R. Levey,&nbsp;A. Sankarasubramanian","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005176","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Most of the world's population faces freshwater scarcity threats, and reservoirs, built both for ensuring water supply during prolonged droughts and reducing downstream flood risks, are critical infrastructure for water sustainability. Historical inflow data and water demand were used to estimate reservoir storage allocation and operation policies when designing and building reservoirs, 50–100 years ago. This study assesses historical reservoir operations in 16 Southeastern reservoirs and evaluates the potential for utilizing existing flood control storage for alternative purposes without increasing downstream flood risk. Using a reservoir simulation model, we evaluate the resulting storage under four initial storage conditions for observed and synthetic seasonal maximum 6-day flood pulses. For most reservoirs, we find conservation storage is depleting and did not exceed the flood storage capacity in their historical operation. The simulation model resulted in most of the reservoirs' storage levels staying within the flood control pool for all scenarios (for observed and synthetic floods). Additional flood risk was lowest for initial storage condition 1 (flood control pool empty) and highest with condition 2 (50% of the flood control pool full). Flood risk increased the most for reservoirs with small ratios of flood control to conservation pool storage. Our study shows the potential for reallocation and utilization of flood control storage to meet the increasing demand. As limited opportunities for new reservoirs exist, utilizing current reservoir storage without introducing additional downstream risk may be an effective management strategy to mitigate flood and drought risk under climate change and population growth.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005176","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143446911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Early Career Perspectives to Broaden the Scope of Critical Zone Science","authors":"Sara Warix,&nbsp;Keira Johnson,&nbsp;Clifford Adamchak,&nbsp;Marc Dumont,&nbsp;Devon Kerins,&nbsp;Abigail Knapp,&nbsp;Ojas Sarup,&nbsp;Hannah Miller,&nbsp;Connor Newman,&nbsp;Sophie D'Arcy,&nbsp;Louis Graup,&nbsp;Kenneth Swift Bird,&nbsp;Rahila Yilangai","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005238","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005238","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Critical Zone (CZ) scientists have advanced understanding of Earth's surface through process-based research that quantifies water, energy, and mass fluxes in predominantly undisturbed systems. However, the CZ is being increasingly altered by humans through climate and land use change. Expanding the scope of CZ science to include both human- and non-human controls on the CZ is important for understanding anthropogenic impacts to Earth's surface processes and ecosystem services. Here, we share perspectives from predominantly U.S.-based, early career CZ scientists centered around broadening the scope of CZ science to focus on societally relevant science through a transdisciplinary science framework. We call for increased training on transdisciplinary methods and collaboration opportunities across disciplines and with stakeholders to foster a scientific community that values transdisciplinary science alongside physical science. Here, we build on existing transdisciplinary research frameworks by highlighting the need for institutional support to include and educate graduate students throughout the research processes. We also call for graduate-student-led initiatives to increase their own exposure to transdisciplinary science through activities such as transdisciplinary-focused seminars and symposiums, volunteering with local conservation groups, and participating in internships outside academia.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005238","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143439164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Land-Water Competition and Synergy Between Solar Energy and Agriculture","authors":"Maddalena Curioni,&nbsp;Nikolas Galli,&nbsp;Giampaolo Manzolini,&nbsp;Maria Cristina Rulli","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005291","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005291","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The food and energy systems face mounting challenges due to increasing demands and sustainability constraints, which impact their ability to efficiently utilize natural resources, such as land and freshwater. Among these challenges, competition for land between large-scale renewable energy production plants and agriculture poses a risk, especially for photovoltaics. Agrivoltaics offers an opportunity to synergistically use land for simultaneous production of energy and food. Recent studies have investigated the upscaling potential of agrivoltaics, moving from field scale analyses to larger-scale suitability assessments. Yet, studies addressing the interaction between crop dynamics and local climatic factors, as well as explicitly investigating hydrological dynamics of agrivoltaics across crops and climates, are still limited. Here, we first superpose a spatial data set of existing photovoltaic farms with different land use/land cover maps to assess the magnitude of land use competition associated with photovoltaics. Then, we use a spatialized agro-hydrological model to simulate the response to different levels of radiation attenuation of 22 non-irrigated crops in their harvested areas across the globe. We find that 22%–35% of rainfed harvested areas globally would maintain their yields if converted to agrivoltaics, while 13%–16% of ground-mounted photovoltaic plants globally are associated with a cropland to non-cropland transition. While carrying the typical limitations and uncertainties of global studies, our results may offer novel possibilities for cross-crop and cross-location comparisons of agrivoltaic experiences, as well as a basis to have a deeper and cross-scale understanding of the feasibility of photovoltaics.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005291","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143431261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Integrated Global-To-Regional Scale Workflow for Simulating Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems","authors":"Kelly Ortega-Cisneros,&nbsp;Denisse Fierros-Arcos,&nbsp;Max Lindmark,&nbsp;Camilla Novaglio,&nbsp;Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats,&nbsp;Tyler D. Eddy,&nbsp;Marta Coll,&nbsp;Elizabeth Fulton,&nbsp;Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos,&nbsp;Jonathan Reum,&nbsp;Yunne-Jai Shin,&nbsp;Cathy Bulman,&nbsp;Leonardo Capitani,&nbsp;Samik Datta,&nbsp;Kieran Murphy,&nbsp;Alice Rogers,&nbsp;Lynne Shannon,&nbsp;George A. Whitehouse,&nbsp;Ezekiel Adekoya,&nbsp;Beatriz S. Dias,&nbsp;Alba Fuster-Alonso,&nbsp;Cecilie Hansen,&nbsp;Bérengère Husson,&nbsp;Vidette McGregor,&nbsp;Alaia Morell,&nbsp;Hem-Nalini Morzaria Luna,&nbsp;Jazel Ouled-Cheikh,&nbsp;James Ruzicka,&nbsp;Jeroen Steenbeek,&nbsp;Ilaria Stollberg,&nbsp;Roshni C. Subramaniam,&nbsp;Vivitskaia Tulloch,&nbsp;Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz,&nbsp;Cheryl S. Harrison,&nbsp;Ryan Heneghan,&nbsp;Olivier Maury,&nbsp;Mercedes Pozo Buil,&nbsp;Jacob Schewe,&nbsp;Derek P. Tittensor,&nbsp;Howard Townsend,&nbsp;Julia L. Blanchard","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004826","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As the urgency to evaluate the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems increases, there is a need to develop robust projections and improve the uptake of ecosystem model outputs in policy and planning. Standardizing input and output data is a crucial step in evaluating and communicating results, but can be challenging when using models with diverse structures, assumptions, and outputs that address region-specific issues. We developed an implementation framework and workflow to standardize the climate and fishing forcings used by regional models contributing to the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) and to facilitate comparative analyses across models and a wide range of regions, in line with the FishMIP 3a protocol. We applied our workflow to three case study areas-models: the Baltic Sea Mizer, Hawai'i-based Longline fisheries therMizer, and the southern Benguela ecosystem Atlantis marine ecosystem models. We then selected the most challenging steps of the workflow and illustrated their implementation in different model types and regions. Our workflow is adaptable across a wide range of regional models, from non-spatially explicit to spatially explicit and fully-depth resolved models and models that include one or several fishing fleets. This workflow will facilitate the development of regional marine ecosystem model ensembles and enhance future research on marine ecosystem model development and applications, model evaluation and benchmarking, and global-to-regional model comparisons.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004826","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143404543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}