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Land Reclamation Controls on Multi-Centennial Estuarine Evolution 填海造地对多世纪河口演变的影响
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005080
R. A. Schrijvershof, D. S. van Maren, M. Van der Wegen, A. J. F. Hoitink
{"title":"Land Reclamation Controls on Multi-Centennial Estuarine Evolution","authors":"R. A. Schrijvershof,&nbsp;D. S. van Maren,&nbsp;M. Van der Wegen,&nbsp;A. J. F. Hoitink","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005080","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005080","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Land reclamations influence the morphodynamic evolution of estuaries and tidal basins, because an altered planform changes tidal dynamics and associated residual sediment transport. The morphodynamic response time to land reclamation is long, impacting the system for decades to centuries. Other human interventions (e.g., deepening of fairways or port construction) will add more morphodynamic adaptation timescales. Our understanding of the cumulative effects of anthropogenic interference with estuaries is limited because observations usually do not cover the complete morphological adaptation period. We aim to assess the impact of land reclamation works and other human interventions on an estuarine system by means of digital reconstructions of historical morphologies of the Ems Estuary over the past 500 years. Our analysis demonstrates that the intertidal-subtidal area ratio altered due to land reclamation works and that the ratio partly restored after land reclamation ended. The land reclamation works have led to the degeneration of an ebb and flood channel system, transitioning the estuary from a multichannel to a single channel system. We infer that the 20th-century intensification of channel dredging and re-alignment works accelerated rather than caused this development. The centennial-scale observations show that the Ems estuary evolution corresponds to a land reclamation response following tidal asymmetry-based stability theory as it moves toward a new equilibrium configuration with modified tidal flats and channels. Considering the long history of land reclamation in the Ems Estuary, it provides an analogy for expected developments in comparable tidal systems where land reclamations were recently carried out.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005080","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142596267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Shifting Distribution of Arctic Daily Temperatures Under Global Warming 全球变暖下北极日温度分布的变化
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004961
Céline Giesse, Dirk Notz, Johanna Baehr
{"title":"The Shifting Distribution of Arctic Daily Temperatures Under Global Warming","authors":"Céline Giesse,&nbsp;Dirk Notz,&nbsp;Johanna Baehr","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004961","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004961","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine daily surface air temperatures (SAT) in the Arctic under global warming, synthesizing changes in mean temperature, variability, seasonality, and extremes based on five Earth system model large ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Our analysis shows that the distribution of daily Arctic SAT changes substantially, with Arctic mean temperatures being distinguishable from pre-industrial levels on 84% and 97% of days at 1.5 and 2°C of global warming, respectively, and on virtually every day at 3°C of global warming. This shift is primarily due to the rapid rise in average temperature resulting from Arctic amplification and is exacerbated by a decrease in the variability of daily Arctic SAT of approximately 8.5% per degree of global warming. The changes in mean temperature and variability are more pronounced in the cold seasons than in summer, resulting in a weakened and shifted seasonal cycle of Arctic SAT. Moreover, the intensity and frequency of warm and cold extreme events change to varying degrees. The hottest days warm slightly more, while the coldest days warm 4–5 times more than the global average temperature, making extreme cold events rare. Changes in local SAT vary regionally across the Arctic and are most significant in areas of sea-ice loss. Our findings underscore the Arctic's amplified sensitivity to global warming and emphasize the urgent need to limit global warming to mitigate impacts on human and natural systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004961","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142596320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Two-Way Option Contracts That Facilitate Adaptive Water Reallocation in the Western United States 促进美国西部适应性水资源再分配的双向期权合同
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004434
Zachary M. Hirsch, Harrison B. Zeff, Rohini S. Gupta, Chris R. Vernon, Patrick M. Reed, Gregory W. Characklis
{"title":"Two-Way Option Contracts That Facilitate Adaptive Water Reallocation in the Western United States","authors":"Zachary M. Hirsch,&nbsp;Harrison B. Zeff,&nbsp;Rohini S. Gupta,&nbsp;Chris R. Vernon,&nbsp;Patrick M. Reed,&nbsp;Gregory W. Characklis","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004434","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Many water markets in the western United States (U.S.) have the ability to reallocate water temporarily during drought, often as short-term water rights leases from lower value irrigated activities to higher value urban uses. Regulatory approval of water transfers, however, typically takes time and involves high transaction costs that arise from technical and legal analyses, discouraging short-term leasing. This leads municipalities to protect against drought-related shortfalls by purchasing large volumes of infrequently used permanent water rights. High transaction costs also result in municipal water rights rarely being leased back to irrigators in wet or normal years, reducing agricultural productivity. This research explores the development of a multi-year two-way option (TWO) contract that facilitates leasing from agricultural-to-urban users during drought and leasing from urban-to agricultural users during wet periods. The modeling framework developed to assess performance of the TWO contracts includes consideration of the hydrologic, engineered, and institutional systems governing the South Platte River Basin in Colorado where there is growing competition for water between municipalities (e.g., the city of Boulder) and irrigators. The modeling framework is built around StateMod, a network-based water allocation model used by state regulators to evaluate water rights allocations and potential rights transfers. Results suggest that the TWO contracts could allow municipalities to maintain supply reliability with significantly reduced rights holdings at lower cost, while increasing agricultural productivity in wet and normal years. Additionally, the TWO contracts provide irrigators with additional revenues via net payments of option fees from municipalities.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004434","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Greening-Induced Biophysical Impacts Lead to Earlier Spring and Autumn Phenology in Temperate and Boreal Forests 绿化引起的生物物理影响导致温带和北方森林的春秋季节提前
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004618
Jing Guo, Jinmei Wang, Yuxin Qiao, Xu Huang, Nicholas G. Smith, Zhiyong Liu, Rui Zhang, Xiuzhi Chen, Chaoyang Wu, Josep Peñuelas, Lei Chen
{"title":"Greening-Induced Biophysical Impacts Lead to Earlier Spring and Autumn Phenology in Temperate and Boreal Forests","authors":"Jing Guo,&nbsp;Jinmei Wang,&nbsp;Yuxin Qiao,&nbsp;Xu Huang,&nbsp;Nicholas G. Smith,&nbsp;Zhiyong Liu,&nbsp;Rui Zhang,&nbsp;Xiuzhi Chen,&nbsp;Chaoyang Wu,&nbsp;Josep Peñuelas,&nbsp;Lei Chen","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004618","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004618","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tree phenology, the timing of periodic biological events in trees, is highly sensitive to climate change. Previous studies have indicated that forest greening can impact the local climate by modifying the seasonal surface energy budget. However, the understanding of tree phenological responses to forest greening at large spatial scales remains limited. Utilizing satellite-derived phenological and leaf area index data spanning from 2001 to 2021, herein we show that forest greening led to earlier spring and autumn phenology in both temperate and boreal forests. Our findings demonstrated that forest greening during winter and spring contributed to a reduction in surface albedo, resulting in biophysical warming and consequently advancing spring leaf phenology. Conversely, forest greening in summer and autumn induced biophysical cooling through increased evapotranspiration, leading to an earlier onset of autumn leaf phenology. Our findings highlight the significant impact of forest greening-induced local seasonal climate changes on shaping tree phenology in temperate and boreal forests. It is crucial to consider these greening-induced alterations in microclimate conditions when modeling changes in tree phenology under future climate warming scenarios.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004618","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Remotely Sensed Variables Predict Grassland Diversity Better at Scales Below 1,000 km as Opposed to Abiotic Variables That Predict It Better at Larger Scales 遥感变量能更好地预测 1000 公里以下尺度的草原多样性,而非生物变量则能更好地预测更大尺度的草原多样性
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004648
Yujin Zhao, Bernhard Schmid, Zhaoju Zheng, Yang Wang, Jin Wu, Yao Wang, Ziyan Chen, Xia Zhao, Dan Zhao, Yuan Zeng, Yongfei Bai
{"title":"Remotely Sensed Variables Predict Grassland Diversity Better at Scales Below 1,000 km as Opposed to Abiotic Variables That Predict It Better at Larger Scales","authors":"Yujin Zhao,&nbsp;Bernhard Schmid,&nbsp;Zhaoju Zheng,&nbsp;Yang Wang,&nbsp;Jin Wu,&nbsp;Yao Wang,&nbsp;Ziyan Chen,&nbsp;Xia Zhao,&nbsp;Dan Zhao,&nbsp;Yuan Zeng,&nbsp;Yongfei Bai","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004648","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004648","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global spatial patterns of vascular plant diversity have been mapped at coarse grain based on climate-dominated environment–diversity relationships and, where possible, at finer grain using remote sensing. However, for grasslands with their small plant sizes, the limited availability of vegetation plot data has caused large uncertainties in fine-grained mapping of species diversity. Here we used vegetation survey data from 1,609 field sites (&gt;4,000 plots of 1 m<sup>2</sup>), remotely sensed data (ecosystem productivity and phenology, habitat heterogeneity, functional traits and spectral diversity), and abiotic data (water- and energy-related, characterizing climate-dominated environment) together with machine learning and spatial autoregressive models to predict and map grassland species richness per 100 m<sup>2</sup> across the Mongolian Plateau at 500 m resolution. Combining all variables yielded a predictive accuracy of 69% compared with 64% using remotely sensed variables or 65% using abiotic variables alone. Among remotely sensed variables, functional traits showed the highest predictive power (55%) in species richness estimation, followed by productivity and phenology (48%), spectral diversity (48%) and habitat heterogeneity (48%). When considering spatial autocorrelation, remotely sensed variables explained 52% and abiotic variables explained 41%. Moreover, Remotely sensed variables provided better prediction at smaller grain size (&lt;∼1,000 km), while water- and energy-dominated macro-environment variables were the most important drivers and dominated the effects of remotely sensed variables on diversity patterns at macro-scale (&gt;∼1,000 km). These findings indicate that while remotely sensed vegetation characteristics and climate-dominated macro-environment provide similar predictions for mapping grassland plant species richness, they offer complementary explanations across broad spatial scales.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004648","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142574087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Persistent Water Scarcity Due To High Irrigation Demand in Arid China: A Case Study in the North Slope of the Tianshan Mountains 中国干旱地区高灌溉需求导致的持续缺水:天山北坡案例研究
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005070
Xingcai Liu, Qiuhong Tang, Ying Zhao, Puyu Wang
{"title":"Persistent Water Scarcity Due To High Irrigation Demand in Arid China: A Case Study in the North Slope of the Tianshan Mountains","authors":"Xingcai Liu,&nbsp;Qiuhong Tang,&nbsp;Ying Zhao,&nbsp;Puyu Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005070","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Water scarcity is a critical threat in arid regions in China due to dry climate and rising human water demand. The sustainability of a recent wetter trend and its impact on future water security remain uncertain. This case study focuses on a hotspot region, the North Slope of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM), to assess water scarcity in the coming decades (2030–2050) under two climate scenarios. To this end, we developed an integrated agro-hydrological model to simulate historical and future hydrological processes and crop water dynamics in arid regions. Our results indicate nonsignificant increases in precipitation (around 3%) and evident rising temperatures (0.9–1.5°C) in the NSTM compared to the present-day (2011–2020) climate. This translates to a projected increase in water availability (5.6%–11.2%) during 2030–2050, with slightly larger increases (6.3%–14%) in glacier runoff. However, the spatial mismatch between precipitation increases and water demand makes this potential gain largely offset by rising irrigation water demand (over 7%) if cropland remains constant from 2020 onwards. As a result, the current annual water deficit (3.3 km<sup>3</sup>) is likely to increase by 5%–11%, with 32% of NSTM basins facing persistent water scarcity. Most croplands are at high risk of groundwater depletion and 17%–34% of basins will experience intensified water scarcity. These findings highlight the urgent need for comprehensive water management strategies, including improved irrigation efficiency and exploration of alternative water sources, to ensure water security and sustainable development in arid China facing a changing climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005070","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142574045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantifying Global Wetland Methane Emissions With In Situ Methane Flux Data and Machine Learning Approaches 利用原位甲烷通量数据和机器学习方法量化全球湿地甲烷排放量
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004330
Shuo Chen, Licheng Liu, Yuchi Ma, Qianlai Zhuang, Narasinha J. Shurpali
{"title":"Quantifying Global Wetland Methane Emissions With In Situ Methane Flux Data and Machine Learning Approaches","authors":"Shuo Chen,&nbsp;Licheng Liu,&nbsp;Yuchi Ma,&nbsp;Qianlai Zhuang,&nbsp;Narasinha J. Shurpali","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004330","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wetland methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) emissions have a significant impact on the global climate system. However, the current estimation of wetland CH<sub>4</sub> emissions at the global scale still has large uncertainties. Here we developed six distinct bottom-up machine learning (ML) models using in situ CH<sub>4</sub> fluxes from both chamber measurements and the Fluxnet-CH<sub>4</sub> network. To reduce uncertainties, we adopted a multi-model ensemble (MME) approach to estimate CH<sub>4</sub> emissions. Precipitation, air temperature, soil properties, wetland types, and climate types are considered in developing the models. The MME is then extrapolated to the global scale to estimate CH<sub>4</sub> emissions from 1979 to 2099. We found that the annual wetland CH<sub>4</sub> emissions are 146.6 ± 12.2 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>−1</sup> (1 Tg = 10<sup>12</sup> g) from 1979 to 2022. Future emissions will reach 165.8 ± 11.6, 185.6 ± 15.0, and 193.6 ± 17.2 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>−1</sup> in the last two decades of the 21st century under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Northern Europe and near-equatorial areas are the current emission hotspots. To further constrain the quantification uncertainty, research priorities should be directed to comprehensive CH<sub>4</sub> measurements and better characterization of spatial dynamics of wetland areas. Our data-driven ML-based global wetland CH<sub>4</sub> emission products for both the contemporary and the 21st century shall facilitate future global CH<sub>4</sub> cycle studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004330","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142561601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Projected Increasing Negative Impact of Extreme Events on Gross Primary Productivity During the 21st Century in CMIP6 Models CMIP6 模型中预测的 21 世纪极端事件对初级生产力总值的负面影响不断增加
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004798
Yuhan Gao, Dan Zhu, Zhen Wang, Zinan Lin, Yao Zhang, Kaicun Wang
{"title":"Projected Increasing Negative Impact of Extreme Events on Gross Primary Productivity During the 21st Century in CMIP6 Models","authors":"Yuhan Gao,&nbsp;Dan Zhu,&nbsp;Zhen Wang,&nbsp;Zinan Lin,&nbsp;Yao Zhang,&nbsp;Kaicun Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004798","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004798","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In the context of increasingly frequent and severe climate extremes, an understanding of the impacts of these events on gross primary production (GPP) and thus on land carbon uptake is crucial. However, research utilizing new model outputs to assess the future trends, characteristics, and driving factors of GPP reduction associated with extreme events remains limited. Here, we use model outputs from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of negative GPP extreme events during the 21st century. We find a notable increase in negative GPP extremes globally under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. They are characterized by longer durations and larger sizes, despite the smaller number of events. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, while the total negative GPP extremes remain relatively stable, hotspots, including tropical forests, southern China, and boreal forest zones, still experience increases in negative extremes. By attributing these GPP extremes to climate conditions, we identified compound hot and dry conditions, which contributed to over 40% of the negative GPP extremes under both scenarios, as the dominant driver, followed by single-driver dry conditions. Under SSP5-8.5, the increasing contribution of compound hot and dry conditions leads to greater GPP reductions through prolonged and intensified negative extreme events. Compared with CMIP5 models, CMIP6 models project an asymmetry of negative and positive GPP extreme events that favors more negative extremes across most regions. Our findings highlight the escalating damage from climate extremes on future ecosystem productivity, emphasizing the urgent need for effective mitigation and adaptation actions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004798","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142561600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integrating Values to Improve the Relevance of Climate-Risk Research 整合价值观,提高气候风险研究的相关性
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1029/2022EF003025
Casey Helgeson, Klaus Keller, Robert E. Nicholas, Vivek Srikrishnan, Courtney Cooper, Erica A. H. Smithwick, Nancy Tuana
{"title":"Integrating Values to Improve the Relevance of Climate-Risk Research","authors":"Casey Helgeson,&nbsp;Klaus Keller,&nbsp;Robert E. Nicholas,&nbsp;Vivek Srikrishnan,&nbsp;Courtney Cooper,&nbsp;Erica A. H. Smithwick,&nbsp;Nancy Tuana","doi":"10.1029/2022EF003025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003025","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Climate risks are growing. Research is increasingly important to inform the design of risk-management strategies. Assessing such strategies necessarily brings values into research. But the values assumed within research (often only implicitly) may not align with those of stakeholders and decision makers. These misalignments are often invisible to researchers and can severely limit research relevance or lead to inappropriate policy advice. Aligning strategy assessments with stakeholders' values requires a holistic approach to research design that is oriented around those values from the start. Integrating values into research in this way requires collaboration with stakeholders, integration across disciplines, and attention to all aspects of research design. Here we describe and demonstrate a qualitative conceptual tool called a <i>values-informed mental model</i> (ViMM) to support such values-centered research design. ViMMs map stakeholders' values onto a conceptual model of a study system to visualize the intersection of those values with coupled natural-human system dynamics. Through this mapping, ViMMs integrate inputs from diverse collaborators to support the design of research that assesses risk-management strategies in light of stakeholders' values. We define a visual language for ViMMs, describe accompanying practices and workflows, and present an illustrative application to the case of flood-risk management in a small community along the Susquehanna river in the Northeast United States.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2022EF003025","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Blue Carbon Assessment in the Salt Marshes of the Venice Lagoon: Dimensions, Variability and Influence of Storm-Surge Regulation 威尼斯泻湖盐沼的蓝碳评估:风暴潮调节的维度、可变性和影响
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004715
Alice Puppin, Davide Tognin, Michela Paccagnella, Mirella Zancato, Massimiliano Ghinassi, Chiara D’Alpaos, Marco Marani, Andrea D’Alpaos
{"title":"Blue Carbon Assessment in the Salt Marshes of the Venice Lagoon: Dimensions, Variability and Influence of Storm-Surge Regulation","authors":"Alice Puppin,&nbsp;Davide Tognin,&nbsp;Michela Paccagnella,&nbsp;Mirella Zancato,&nbsp;Massimiliano Ghinassi,&nbsp;Chiara D’Alpaos,&nbsp;Marco Marani,&nbsp;Andrea D’Alpaos","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004715","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004715","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Salt marshes are intertidal coastal ecosystems shaped by complex feedbacks between hydrodynamic, morphological, and biological processes. These crucial yet endangered environments provide a diverse range of ecosystem services but are globally subjected to high anthropogenic pressures, while being severely exposed to climate change impacts. The importance of salt marshes as “blue carbon” sinks, deriving from their primary production coupled with rapid surface accretion, has been increasingly recognized within the framework of climate mitigation strategies. However, large uncertainties remain in salt marsh carbon stock and sequestration estimation. In order to provide further knowledge in salt marsh carbon assessment and investigate marsh carbon pool response to management actions, we analyzed organic matter content in salt marsh soils of the Venice Lagoon (Italy) from 60 sediment cores to the depth of 1 m and estimated organic carbon stock and accumulation rates in different areas. Organic carbon stocks and accumulation rates were highly variable in different marshes, being affected by organic and inorganic inputs and preservation conditions. Our estimates suggest that the studied marshes store 17,108 ± 5,757 tons of carbon per square kilometer in top 1-m of soil and can accumulate 85 ± 25 tons of carbon per square kilometer per year. However, flood regulation may reduce the annual marsh CO<sub>2</sub> sequestration potential by more than 30%. Our results contribute valuable information for regional carbon assessments, reinforcing the need for integrated coastal management policies to preserve the ecosystem services of coastal environments, and underscore the importance of considering local variability and methodological variations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004715","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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