Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Climate-Driven Changes to Suspended-Sediment Yields by the End of the Century","authors":"Alexander B. Prescott,&nbsp;Jon D. Pelletier","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006125","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006125","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Anticipated changes in climate by the end of this century are likely to modify suspended-sediment yields (<i>S</i>_y) in diverse ways. Past work has shown how hydrological non-stationarity may alter water discharges and hence <i>S</i>_y, but less attention has been given to the impact of likely future changes in upland sediment-detachment rates on downstream <i>S</i>_y. In certain environments, climatically driven changes in vegetation cover on upland hillslopes may more than counteract the effects of changing runoff on <i>S</i>_y. Changes in precipitation, temperature, and vegetation may, therefore, interact in nonlinear ways to produce unexpected changes. In this work, we simulated future changes to background <i>S</i>_y (i.e., changes unrelated to land-use changes and dams) with climatological and vegetative data output from an ensemble of CMIP6 Earth System Model (ESM) simulations. Depending on the future scenario, the cumulative annual sediment flux of 780 globally distributed rivers increases by between 2.3% and 8.4%. Significant deviations from historical <i>S</i>_y are projected at high latitudes in response to each forcing variable, while low-latitude responses are regionally varied. In regions where ensemble members agree on future changes in forcing variables, large <i>S</i>_y changes are forecast with high confidence (e.g., &gt;200% <i>S</i>_y increase for several northeastern U.S. rivers at the 95% level). In contrast, ensemble variability in vegetation projections results in considerable uncertainty in the projected <i>S</i>_y of rivers in other regions. Further improvements to the vegetation components of ESMs will help to reduce regional uncertainties in projected changes to <i>S</i>_y.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006125","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144910254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Model-Based Evaluation of the Effects of Irrigation Expansion on Regional and Global Land Surface Climate","authors":"Stefano Casirati,&nbsp;Paolo D’Odorico,&nbsp;Rolf H. Reichle,&nbsp;Tasnuva Rouf,&nbsp;Milton Stookey,&nbsp;Manuela Girotto","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006271","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006271","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Irrigation is essential for enhancing agricultural productivity and satisfying global food demand. The challenge of feeding a growing population without increasing cultivated land can be addressed partly by expanding irrigation to currently rain-fed croplands. At the same time, water-scarce regions with currently unsustainable irrigation practices may experience a reduction in irrigated area. While the evaporative cooling effect of irrigation on regional climate has been extensively studied, it is still unclear how different irrigation expansion (or contraction) scenarios would affect global and regional near-surface climatic conditions. Here we evaluate the hydro-climatic impacts of several irrigation expansion scenarios. To assess changes in evapotranspiration &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;E&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;T&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $(ET)$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; and land surface temperature &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;L&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;S&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;T&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $(LST)$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; under various irrigation scenarios, we incorporated and validated an irrigation model representing four main irrigation methods: sprinkler, drip, furrow, and flood-paddy, into the NASA Catchment land surface model. Globally, the increase in &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;E&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;T&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $ET$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; from irrigation and the associated impact on average yearly &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;L&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;S&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;T&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $LST$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; are negligible, with an average global cooling of &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;−&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;0.03&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;°&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;C&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${-}0.03{}^{circ}mathrm{C}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; in the case of current irrigation (with respect to a baseline without irrigation). Compared to the current irrigation scenario, the maximum irrigation expansion scenario can lead to an additional &lt;","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006271","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144905307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projections of Lightning-Ignited Wildfire Risk in the Western United States","authors":"Dmitri A. Kalashnikov,&nbsp;John T. Abatzoglou,&nbsp;Frances V. Davenport,&nbsp;Zachary M. Labe,&nbsp;Paul C. Loikith,&nbsp;Danielle Touma,&nbsp;Deepti Singh","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006108","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006108","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is a major source of summer wildfire ignition in the western United States (WUS). However, future projections of lightning are uncertain since lightning is not directly simulated by most global climate models. To address this issue, we use convolutional neural network (CNN)-based parameterizations of daily June-September CG lightning. CNN parameterizations of daily CG lightning occurrence at each grid cell use fields of three thermodynamic variables—ratio of surface Moist Static Energy (MSE) to 500 hPa saturation MSE, 700–500 hPa lapse rate, and 500 hPa relative humidity. Applying these parameterizations to the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble, we find widespread increases in CG lightning days across much of the region by the mid-21st century (2031–2060) under a moderate warming scenario. Projected increases are pronounced in the northern WUS where many grid cells experience 4–12 additional CG lightning days compared to 1995–2022 and are driven by increases in all three thermodynamic variables. To assess the risk of lightning-ignited wildfire (LIW) ignition, we also quantify the concurrence of CG lightning with high Fire Weather Index (FWI) days. By 2031–2060, CG lightning will coincide more frequently with high FWI, but the magnitude of increases relative to CG lightning days varies across the region. Future projections of CG lightning and LIW risk can be useful for understanding the changing risks of associated hazards, and guide wildland fire management and suppression planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006108","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144897370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Producing Hydrological Projections Under Climate Change: A Groundwater-Inclusive Practical Guide","authors":"Frédérique M. Mourot,&nbsp;Dylan J. Irvine,&nbsp;Tomas A. Remenyi,&nbsp;Lindsay B. Hutley,&nbsp;Russell S. Crosbie,&nbsp;Catherine R. Moore","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006316","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006316","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With global warming, the hydrological cycle is intensifying with more frequent and severe droughts and floods, placing water resources and their dependent communities under increasing stress. Guidance and insights into the projection of future water conditions are, therefore, increasingly needed to inform climate change adaptation. Hydrological projections can provide such insights when suitably designed for user needs, produced from the best available climate knowledge, and leverage appropriate hydrological models. However, producing such hydrological projections is a complex process that requires skills and knowledge spanning from the often-siloed disciplines of climate, hydrology, communication, and decision-making. Groundwater projections are still underrepresented compared to surface water projections, despite the importance of groundwater to sustain society and the environment. Accordingly, this paper bridges these silos and fills a gap by providing detailed guidance on the important steps and best practices to develop groundwater-inclusive hydrological projections that can effectively support decision-making. Using an extensive literature review and our practical experience as climate scientists, hydro(geo)logists, numerical modelers, uncertainty experts and decision-makers, here we provide: (a) an overview of climate change hydrological impacts as background knowledge; (b) a step-by-step guide to produce groundwater-inclusive hydrological projections under climate change, targeted to both scientists and water practitioners; (c) a summary of important considerations related to hydrological projection uncertainty; and (d) insights to use hydrological projections and their associated uncertainty for impactful communication and decision-making. By providing this practical guide, our paper addresses a critical interdisciplinary knowledge gap and supports enhanced decision-making and resilience to climate change threats.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006316","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144894135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating IPCC Projections of Global Sea-Level Change From the Pre-Satellite Era","authors":"Torbjörn E. Törnqvist,&nbsp;Clinton P. Conrad,&nbsp;Sönke Dangendorf,&nbsp;Benjamin D. Hamlington","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006533","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006533","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With an acceleration of global sea-level rise during the satellite altimetry era (since 1993) firmly established, it is now appropriate to examine sea-level projections made around the onset of this time period. Here we show that the mid-range projection from the Second Assessment Report of the IPCC (1995/1996) was strikingly close to what transpired over the next 30 years, with the magnitude of sea-level rise underestimated by only ∼1 cm. Projections of contributions from individual components were more variable, with a notable underestimation of dynamic mass loss from ice sheets. Nevertheless—and in view of the comparatively limited process understanding, modeling capabilities, and computational resources available three decades ago—these early attempts should inspire confidence in presently available global sea-level projections. Such multidecadal evaluations of past climate projections, as presented here for sea-level change, offer useful tests of past climate forecasts, and highlight the essential importance of continued climate monitoring.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006533","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144888434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Connecting the Past and the Future to Build Regional Sea-Level Projections","authors":"Dewi Le Bars,&nbsp;Sybren Drijfhout","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005623","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005623","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Sea level is rising and increasing the risk of flood, erosion and salt intrusion along the coastlines of the world. We describe the latest sea-level projections designed to help the Netherlands adapt to climate change. To improve on previous projections, we develop here a framework that allows a better connection between observed sea-level changes and projections. First, a sea-level budget provides an attribution of observed sea level to its contributors. This budget is applied to the same region as the projections. Second, the projections start in 1995 allowing a long overlapping period with observations, which allows an evaluation of the projections for total sea level and for each individual contributor. The framework helps identify issues in a former version of process-based sea-level projections and guides decision making to avoid them in this and future updates. In particular, we decide to select plausible climate models for ocean dynamic sea-level change. The resulting sea-level rise median and 5th to 95th percentile ranges in 2100 compared to 1995–2014 are 44 (26–73) cm, 59 (40–95) cm and 82 (59–124) cm for the SSP1-2.5, SSP2-4.5 an SSP5-8.5 emissions scenarios respectively. The framework is extended with a new way to develop low-likelihood high-impact scenarios to explore the deeply uncertain future.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005623","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144881382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Could Prevent Future Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline, But Injection Location is Key","authors":"Ewa M. Bednarz,&nbsp;Paul B. Goddard,&nbsp;Douglas G. MacMartin,&nbsp;Daniele Visioni,&nbsp;David Bailey,&nbsp;Gokhan Danabasoglu","doi":"10.1029/2025EF005919","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF005919","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a crucial role in the global climate system. Various studies report both ongoing and projected reductions in AMOC strength, with important implications for climate and society. While Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) has been proposed to mitigate some impacts of a warming climate, model simulations disagree whether it could also be successful in ameliorating the projected AMOC decline. Using idealized SAI sensitivity simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we demonstrate that whether SAI could restore AMOC depends on the details of SAI implementation, particularly its latitude(s). Specifically, Northern-hemispheric SAI initially impacts upper-ocean densities in the North Atlantic through changes in surface heat flux and temperature, ultimately preventing AMOC decline. On the other hand, Southern-hemispheric SAI does not substantially impact AMOC strength even though global mean cooling is achieved. We show that different processes play different roles in determining the AMOC response between the initial (∼10–15 years) and longer timescales, with the former dominated by the direct SAI effect and the latter influenced by feedbacks from AMOC adjustments. These processes may also offset each other, leading to a relatively stable evolution of AMOC under each SAI realization and a small, yet substantially different, subset of potential AMOC responses. Our results demonstrate the potential for SAI to help avoid some climatic tipping points, but also highlight the need to understand the dependence of the outcomes on the specifics of SAI as well as for a better process-based understanding of the many factors influencing such outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF005919","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144881381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Old-Growth Forest Area Projected to Increase on United States Federal Lands Under Alternative Future Scenarios","authors":"Jennifer K. Costanza,&nbsp;Kevin M. Potter,&nbsp;David M. Walker,&nbsp;Frank H. Koch,&nbsp;Andrew N. Gray,&nbsp;John W. Coulston","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005904","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005904","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Changing climate conditions, wildfires, and tree harvests could affect the area of mature and old-growth forests in the United States. We used a stochastic modeling system to project future areal extents of mature and old-growth forests on National Forest System (NFS) and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) land across the conterminous United States, and to assess threats to these forests under a variety of socioeconomic and climate futures, to 2070. The area of old-growth forest is expected to increase 19%–27% on NFS and BLM lands while mature forest trends (0.8% decrease to 2.5% increase) depend on the socioeconomic and climate future. Trends vary regionally, with old-growth area increasing everywhere but the South, where it is projected to remain approximately the same, while the area of mature forest remains relatively flat everywhere but the Pacific Northwest, where an increase is expected. Old growth is projected to increase for most major forest types while mature forest increases for some and decreases for others. The volume of trees killed by fire annually is projected to increase by as much as 48% for old-growth and 22%–100% for mature forests, while harvested volume could increase by 367%–441% in old-growth and 125%–150% in mature forests under some scenarios. Fire and cutting would cause only a small proportional decrease in overall tree volume, however. By identifying the ecosystems susceptible to loss of older forest, these results can inform management and conservation efforts to retain such forests and help them adapt to future change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005904","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decomposing a Compound Flood Event in an Urban Pacific Northwest Estuary: Primary Drivers and Projections for the Future","authors":"Preston Spicer,&nbsp;Ning Sun,&nbsp;Zhaoqing Yang,&nbsp;Taiping Wang,&nbsp;Cade Reesman,&nbsp;Sourav Taraphdar,&nbsp;L. Ruby Leung","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006001","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006001","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Duwamish River Estuary (DRE) of Washington is prone to compound flooding during atmospheric river (AR) events. The processes contributing to such flooding (coastal and fluvial) have remained opaque to municipalities that are increasingly impacted. Here, we conduct a suite of coupled atmosphere-hydrology-ocean model simulations with varying forcing combinations (tide, surge, and/or river discharge) to identify the primary drivers of compound flooding during a recent AR event. We also test year 2,100 climate forcing to project how flooding and drivers may change in the future for the same event. We identify a clear distinction between dynamics in the downstream, engineered portion of the DRE compared to the upstream, “natural” river. Downstream, tides dominate water levels but contributions from storm surge and nonlinear tide-surge interaction elevate tide-only high waters from no flooding to major flooding. Upstream, total water levels during the event are ∼6 cm higher than downstream due to an increasing influence of river discharge over surge and tides. Notably, nonlinear surge-river and tide-river interactions act to reduce upstream water levels up to 50% compared to estimates which linearly sum tides, surge, and river, likely reducing flood vulnerability. Under two future climate scenarios: one with only sea level rise (SLR) and another with SLR plus atmospheric warming, we find little change in mechanism contributions to water levels. Expanded flooding in both cases is largely due to SLR, as a ∼50% increase to river discharge under the warming scenario has no impact downstream and marginally increases (∼3 cm) water level upstream.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From Coastal Retreat to Seaward Growth: Emergent Behaviors From Paired Community Beach Nourishment Choices","authors":"J. Lorenzo-Trueba,&nbsp;A. Janoff,&nbsp;O. Thomas,&nbsp;D. Jin,&nbsp;P. Hoagland,&nbsp;A. Ashton","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006352","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006352","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Coastal communities often address shoreline erosion through beach nourishment, adding externally sourced sand to widen beaches for recreation and property protection. While nourishment enhances beachfront property values, the need for periodic maintenance creates interdependencies where the actions of neighboring communities affect local shoreline dynamics. Using a coupled model of two neighboring communities, we examine the interplay between community nourishment decisions and the redistribution of nourishment sand. We find that the value a community places on wider beaches not only influences their propensity to nourish, but also their and their neighbors' nourishment efficiency and net benefits. Communities that nourish more frequently tend to have lower nourishment efficiency, as sand is redistributed alongshore, benefiting less-active neighbors at their expense. A 20-year New Jersey case study confirms that communities that nourish more have lower nourishment efficiencies, including instances where less wealthy communities nourish significantly more, enabling wealthier neighbors to enjoy higher efficiencies—suggesting that such dynamics may already be shaping real-world coastal outcomes. In future scenarios, we simulate the effects of rising sand costs and accelerated erosion due to sea-level rise under coordinated and non-coordinated planning methods, finding that less wealthy communities experience a higher risk of beachfront property loss under non-coordination, exacerbating disparities in coastal management. These findings underscore the importance of inter-community cooperation in optimizing economic and environmental outcomes in beach nourishment strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006352","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144843273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}