Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Abrupt Recent Increases in Plastic Ingestion by Sable Shearwaters (Ardenna carneipes)","authors":"Jennifer L. Lavers,&nbsp;Alix M. de Jersey,&nbsp;Jack Rivers-Auty,&nbsp;Alexander L. Bond","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008572","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008572","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The world is a complex system with rapid changes making it difficult to anticipate further change and mitigate the impacts. Long-term ecological studies have contributed disproportionately to our understanding of complex ecosystem responses, including shifts in baseline conditions. While numerous studies have identified serious health consequences resulting from plastics exposure, plastics research often suffers from contradictory messaging. To help address this issue, we use a long-term plastic ingestion data set for Australian shearwaters (2010–2026) to describe patterns in total plastics exposure over time (number and mass of plastic consumed) as well as two commonly ingested items (plastic bottle caps, plastic resin pellets or “nurdles”). Plastic prevalence within the population (typically 75%–85%) has remained consistent over 16 years; however, there has been a substantial and rapid increase in the mass and number of ingested plastics, including lids and pellets, since 2022. We demonstrate that, had this project been shorter in duration (e.g., the focus of a graduate research project), the conclusions could have been very different, and potentially incomplete. Overall, as the study window increases, a more complete picture becomes apparent: a combination of “good” and “bad” years for the birds, variable patterns in “problematic” items such as lids, and an accelerating trend in the quantity of plastics ingested by fledglings, particularly in the last 5 years. As plastic-related pressures increase, understanding rapidly changing systems requires thoughtful consideration of the most relevant analyses and metrics which may differ from those used historically.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008572","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148943086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Calcareous Benthic Foraminifera Under Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement: Synthesis, Knowledge Gaps, and Future Research Agenda","authors":"George Henry,&nbsp;Daniela Basso","doi":"10.1029/2026EF009044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF009044","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Limiting global warming to 1.5°C will require carbon dioxide removal, and Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) is increasingly being explored as a marine carbon dioxide removal pathway. However, benthic biological responses remain much less constrained than water-column processes and planktonic responses, even though calcareous benthic foraminifera play important roles in sediment–water interface biogeochemistry and coastal carbonate budgets. This review synthesizes current understanding of benthic foraminiferal biomineralization, experimental evidence relevant to elevated alkalinity, and analytical approaches for detecting OAE-driven changes in test structure and chemistry. Available evidence indicates that calcification in benthic foraminifera is a tightly regulated, energy-dependent process controlled by the interaction between inorganic-carbon supply, biological pH regulation, and external carbonate chemistry. While inverse analogs such as ocean acidification studies provide mechanistic clues regarding species-specific sensitivities, direct experimental evidence of benthic foraminiferal responses to true OAE conditions remains a critical knowledge gap. We propose an analytical framework that integrates morphometric measurements, X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, SEM/micro-CT imaging, and calibrated geochemical proxies such as δ¹¹B, U/Ca, and selected element ratios to distinguish primary biomineralization responses from redox, nutrient, and diagenetic overprints. We propose a four-tier framework for geochemical proxies that links primary carbonate-system indicators with feedstock-related tracers and quality-control metrics for interpreting OAE-driven perturbations. The framework proposed here enables cross-calibrated workflows for laboratory, mesocosm, and field settings, supporting evaluation of benthic responses, refining environmental assessment, and identifying where foraminiferal observations may inform OAE efficacy and benthic feedbacks on alkalinity retention.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF009044","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Oasisification Yields Response-Compensated Resilience in an Arid Endorheic Basin","authors":"Jian Liu,&nbsp;Yu Zhang,&nbsp;Cun Chang,&nbsp;Wei Yan,&nbsp;Yonglong Han,&nbsp;Shuai Wu,&nbsp;Jianwei Mao,&nbsp;Lin Han,&nbsp;Yonghui Wang,&nbsp;Xiaofei Ma","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008221","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008221","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rapid oasisification is widely pursued to strengthen regional livelihoods and ecological security in arid endorheic basins, yet it proceeds under mounting water scarcity and ecological trade-offs. Whether such greening actually enhances ecosystem resilience—and through which components—remains unclear. Here we couple Pressure–State–Response (PSR) accounting with explainable machine learning (XGBoost–TreeSHAP) to characterize how pressure, ecosystem state, response capacity, and composite resilience (ER) co-vary across contrasting landscapes in the Tarim River Basin (2000–2020). Oasis cover expanded from 12.06% to 14.32% and basin-wide ER rose modestly from 0.50 to 0.54. However, this gain coincided with improvement in the Response component across 86.9% of the basin, whereas Pressure increased across 75.6%—most acutely along the mainstem corridor (98.8%)—and only 65.8% of the basin showed net ecological improvement. Composite resilience thus appears response-compensated rather than pressure-relieved. TreeSHAP attribution revealed contrasting predictor structures: net primary productivity (NPP) was the leading contributor in oasis models (26%–43%), while evaporative-demand and moisture-related variables contributed more in non-oasis models. PSR quadrant analysis further localized higher-pressure, lower-state conditions along the mainstem. These results indicate that rising composite resilience can mask persistent pressure in water-limited inland river systems, and that coordinated monitoring of pressure, state, and response capacity is needed to support integrated water–land management under intensifying climatic and human forcing.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008221","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148942860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterization of Municipal Water Uses in Urban Areas Across the Contiguous United States","authors":"Donya Dezfooli,&nbsp;Mazdak Arabi,&nbsp;Cibi Vishnu Chinnasamy,&nbsp;Sybil Sharvelle","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008163","url":null,"abstract":"<p>An improved understanding of municipal water demand is essential for transitioning toward sustainable urban water management. This study develops a municipal water demand model by utilizing the Integrated Urban Water Model (IUWM), aimed at estimating and analyzing urban water use patterns across urban areas rather than conventional county-level units within the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 2005–2017. The objectives of this study are to regionalize model parameters for urban regions, quantify these parameters and associated predictive uncertainties, and explore the intensity of municipal water use in various ecohydrological regions across the CONUS. Findings suggest that by analyzing total water use and the Commercial, Industrial, and Institutional to Residential (CII/Res) water use ratio, along with socio-ecohydrological factors, cities can be grouped into four distinct clusters: arid cities with high total and outdoor use; western and arid-region cities; eastern cities in continental and temperate climates; and major urban centers with high CII/Res ratios. The results indicate that water use intensity and predictive uncertainty differ across regions and urban clusters, influenced by both climatic and demographic factors. While arid and southern cities experience the highest levels of uncertainty, densely populated areas tend to have more predictable water use patterns. Conversely, smaller cities are marked by greater variation and less predictable municipal water use estimates. The use of regionalized model parameters improves the assessment of municipal water use at finer spatial scales, enabling more effective decision-making by water managers and contributing to more resilient and sustainable water management.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008163","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148942556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projecting Compound Wind-Rainfall Hazards From Tropical Cyclones in China Under Climate Change","authors":"Lishu Xu,&nbsp;Liang Gao,&nbsp;Haoxuan Du","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008431","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008431","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose significant compound wind-rainfall hazards to coastal China, which are projected to intensify under a changing climate. This study employs simulations from a statistical-dynamical TC model with bias-corrected ensembles from CMIP6 projections to quantify the evolution of compound hazards from 1980 to 2100. Wind and rainfall fields are simulated using physically based models, while compound extremes are analyzed via peaks-over-threshold marginal distributions and copula-based joint return periods. A northward shift in TC track density is detected, with an increase up to 155.8% in the Yellow Sea area by end-century. The 100-year return period wind speeds intensify with an average of 17.2%, and 24-hr rainfall accumulations rise by 43%. TCs bring peak winds 1–4 hr before the heaviest rain at coastal areas; but the rain arrives first at inland areas and amplified by mountainous terrain. The joint return periods corresponding to historical 100-year wind-rain extremes will shorten significantly by a factor of 2–80, which is primarily attributed to higher TC frequency, amplified rainfall, and slower translation speeds. Compound events caused by TCs are becoming more intense, lasting longer over a broader season. Annual compound exposure increases by approximately 2.7-fold by end-century relative to the historical baseline, implying longer and more widespread concurrent hazards and motivating multi-hazard early warning that accounts for the co-occurrence of wind and rainfall.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008431","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148942601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Significant Decline in Carbon Storage at the Edges of Mangrove Forest","authors":"Ziqi Zhao,&nbsp;Mingming Jia,&nbsp;Luhe Wan,&nbsp;Rong Zhang,&nbsp;Chuanpeng Zhao,&nbsp;Chunying Ren,&nbsp;Yanbiao Xi,&nbsp;Tingyu Lu,&nbsp;Zongming Wang","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008723","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008723","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Quantitative analysis of blue carbon stored in mangrove ecosystems is essential for understanding their role in climate change mitigation. However, the impacts of edge effects in fragmented mangrove forests are often overlooked in large-scale blue carbon assessments. In this study, we present the first global-scale quantitative assessment of how edge effects influence carbon storage in Ramsar-protected mangrove forests, emphasizing both the necessity of incorporating these effects into carbon assessments and their variability across different fragmentation gradients. Specifically, we identified three distinct patterns of edge effects along fragmentation gradients, each further divided into six scenarios based on biomass decay rate dynamics. Our results indicate that the estimated edge-effect penetration distances were less than 100 m in approximately 63.37% of the studied Ramsar-protected mangrove forests. In these edge zones, biomass declines by an average of 5.15% compared with interior zones. Neglecting such edge effects has likely led to an overestimation of Ramsar-protected mangrove carbon stocks by about 2.08 Tg C. These findings underscore the importance of accurately accounting for edge effects in mangrove carbon assessments, as their omission can substantially bias carbon storage estimates and, in turn, hinder effective management of blue carbon ecosystems.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008723","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148942521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Soil Moisture Regulates Hydrologic Niche Overlap in Mixed Plant Ecosystems: A Global Synthesis","authors":"Dong Ge,&nbsp;Xiaodong Gao,&nbsp;Bin Li,&nbsp;Xuantao Zhang,&nbsp;Li Zhang,&nbsp;Jizixing Zhu,&nbsp;Xining Zhao","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007973","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007973","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mixed plant ecosystems (MPEs) play a crucial role in climate-smart ecosystems by optimizing resource use and enhancing sustainability. However, ongoing climate change may exacerbate hydrologic niche overlap in MPEs by altering water availability, which could enhance interspecific water competition and undermine the sustainability of these systems. Despite its importance, the variation and dominant factors influencing hydrologic niche overlap remain understudied in MPEs. Here, we synthesized 2,152 observations from 65 studies worldwide which analyzed hydrologic niche overlap using stable water isotope techniques, covering various plant mixtures, including woody-herbaceous, woody-woody, and herbaceous-herbaceous combinations. Our results show that herbaceous plants primarily rely on shallow soil water (0–40 cm), while woody plants in drylands seasonally switch between shallow and deep soil water sources. As a result, woody-herbaceous systems exhibit the lowest niche overlap index (NOI), while herbaceous-herbaceous systems show the highest. Given these rooting patterns, soil moisture emerges as the primary factor regulating NOI across all systems. Specifically, in woody-herbaceous systems, NOI increases with both shallow and deep soil water content, whereas in woody-woody and herbaceous-herbaceous systems, NOI decreases as available soil moisture increases. This study reveals the impact of plant mixture on water use, deepens the understanding of hydrologic niche differentiation, and emphasizes the importance of designing MPEs to enhance their adaptability and sustainability.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007973","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148942388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transitioning From Rice-Wheat to Diversified Rice-Based Rotations Enhances Rice Production and Mitigates Greenhouse Gas Emissions Across Asia","authors":"Chong Wang,&nbsp;Yujie Liu,&nbsp;Jiangang Liu,&nbsp;Xiaoyu Shi,&nbsp;Da Lv,&nbsp;Jiongchao Zhao,&nbsp;Qingquan Chu","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008580","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008580","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rice-wheat cropping systems underpin food security across Asia but also represent major sources of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Replacing wheat with diversified crop species to create alternative rice-based cropping systems may become an effective strategy for sustainable production. However, how such alternatives influence rice production and GHG emissions at large spatial scales remains poorly understood. Here, we integrated compiled field observations with Random Forest modeling frameworks to generate spatial estimates at 0.5° resolution across Asia. All optimized models were statistically significant (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.001) and showed good predictive performance, with testing <i>R</i>² of 0.83 for rice yield, 0.63 for methane emission, and 0.70 for nitrous oxide emission. Spatial estimations demonstrated that complete replacement of rice-wheat with alternative rice-based cropping systems was associated with a modest increase in rice yield of 1.3% and a reduction in methane emission of 8.5%, while leading to a slight increase in nitrous oxide emission of 1.4%. Across Asia, these transitions could boost rice production by 16.8 million tons and reduce carbon emission by 82.4 million tons. The resulting improvements were expected to generate a yield benefit of 6.4 billion dollars and a net benefit of 8.6 billion dollars. These economic returns exhibited a highly concentrated pattern, with India, China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Thailand accounting for roughly three-quarters of the total benefits. Our findings highlight the great potential of alternative rice-based cropping systems to enhance rice productivity, mitigate GHG emissions, and improve economic viability, providing a promising pathway for sustainable agricultural transformation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008580","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149145574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Greenhouse Gas and Climate Effects of Global Wetland Restoration Under Future Warming","authors":"R. L. Wagner,&nbsp;J. Weber,&nbsp;P. O. Hopcroft,&nbsp;E. Fluet-Chouinard,&nbsp;D. J. Beerling,&nbsp;M. Val Martin","doi":"10.1029/2026EF008632","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008632","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Wetland restoration is a promising nature-based climate solution because it enhances carbon sequestration and avoids carbon dioxide (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;CO&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{CO}}_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;) emissions from drained soils. However, wetlands also emit methane (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;CH&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;4&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{CH}}_{4}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;), which can offset these benefits. The combined impacts of wetland protection and restoration and climate-driven changes on global wetland GHG budgets remain poorly quantified. Here, we estimate &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;CO&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{CO}}_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; and &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;CH&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;4&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{CH}}_{4}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; fluxes from drained and restored wetlands, and their climate impacts, using historically reconstructed wetland area, outputs from eight CMIP6 Earth System Models and the FaIR reduced-complexity climate model. We compare protection of present-day wetlands with restoration of historically drained wetlands by 2050, under two contrasting warming pathways. By 2100, global wetland &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;CH&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;4&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{CH}}_{4}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; emissions increase by 11%–57% across scenarios, with the largest rise under high warming and restoration. Restoration strengthens carbon sequestration and avoids ongoing emissions from drained soils, improving the net ecosystem carbon balance by 0.4–0.6 Gt C &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;yr&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;−&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;1&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 ","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF008632","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148942340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projected AMOC Weakening Controls Future Diatom Decline in the Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean","authors":"S. Doléac,&nbsp;M. Lévy,&nbsp;L. Bopp","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007992","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007992","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate models consistently project a decline in diatom net primary production (NPP) under high-emission scenarios in the highly productive subpolar North Atlantic. However, the magnitude of this decline remains highly uncertain and varies substantially across models, limiting our ability to anticipate its ecological and biogeochemical consequences. Several recent studies using individual Earth system models have identified a mechanistic relationship between the projected weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the availability of <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mtext>NO</mtext>\u0000 <mn>3</mn>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${text{NO}}_{3}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> for phytoplankton growth in the subpolar North Atlantic. These findings suggest that uncertainty in the future evolution of the AMOC may be a major driver of the spread in diatom NPP projections. Here, we analyze an ensemble of Earth system models to test this hypothesis and to better constrain projections of diatom NPP. We first show that a robust inter-model relationship exists between projected changes in AMOC intensity and <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mtext>NO</mtext>\u0000 <mn>3</mn>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${text{NO}}_{3}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> availability in the subpolar North Atlantic. We then apply an emergent-constraint framework to estimate the future sensitivity of diatom NPP to nitrate changes, using satellite-based reconstructions of historical NPP and nitrate variability. Combining these two approaches yields a constrained relationship between projected AMOC weakening and the associated decline in diatom NPP. Our results confirm that uncertainty in the magnitude of future AMOC weakening constitutes the dominant source of uncertainty in diatom NPP projections. Nevertheless, they suggest a smaller decrease in diatom NPP than previously anticipated for a plausible range of AMOC decline.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007992","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149145639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}