Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-06-06DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005298
Jenna Behrendt, Steven J. Smith, Sha Yu, Shiqi Chen, Haiwen Zhang, Mengye Zhu, Jared Williams, Xinzhao Cheng, Anom Ashok Dule, Wenli Li, Ryna Cui, Nate Hultman
{"title":"United States and China Anthropogenic Methane Emissions: A Review of Uncertainties and Collaborative Opportunities","authors":"Jenna Behrendt, Steven J. Smith, Sha Yu, Shiqi Chen, Haiwen Zhang, Mengye Zhu, Jared Williams, Xinzhao Cheng, Anom Ashok Dule, Wenli Li, Ryna Cui, Nate Hultman","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005298","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005298","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Methane emissions have attracted substantial attention internationally. The U.S. and China, as two of the largest global methane emitters, play a particularly important role in determining global methane emission trends and have recently expressed intentions through joint statements to collaborate on key methane-related work. Current methane emission estimates are highly uncertain, given that methane emission factors (i.e., the emissions intensity of different activities) are highly dependent on local conditions. This analysis evaluated around 50 estimates of anthropogenic methane emissions in the U.S. and China across all major sectors to identify areas of uncertainty and highlight opportunities for cross-country collaboration. Shared sources of emissions with large variation in estimates and limited sector and region-specific analyses include waste and livestock emissions, as well as abandoned fossil production sites (coal mines and oil wells), which present opportunities for knowledge sharing and joint leadership. Key areas for collaboration include improving data collection, monitoring, and availability to develop more detailed emission factors that take into account local conditions and temporal sources of emissions. A collaborative approach to developing a transparent, multi-scale emissions inventory and evaluation processes that integrate multiple methodologies into national emissions estimates would improve accuracy of emissions estimates and better inform mitigation strategies and policy discussions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005298","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144232275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-06-06DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005189
Caitlin G. Jones-Ngo, Sara Ludwick, Mohammad Z. Al-Hamdan, Jason Vargo, Rebecca J. Schmidt, Erwan Monier, Kathryn C. Conlon
{"title":"Increasing Exposures to Compound Wildfire Smoke and Extreme Heat Hazards in California, 2011–2020","authors":"Caitlin G. Jones-Ngo, Sara Ludwick, Mohammad Z. Al-Hamdan, Jason Vargo, Rebecca J. Schmidt, Erwan Monier, Kathryn C. Conlon","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005189","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is simultaneously worsening wildfire and extreme heat events in California increasing the likelihood of exposure to compound hazards (CH). This study examines the exposure distribution of compound wildfire smoke and extreme heat in California, 2011–2020, and characterizes disproportionate population vulnerabilities. We obtained fine resolution temperature data (4-km) from GridMET and wildfire-influenced fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) estimates (3-km) from a combined metric of geostatistical modeled total PM<sub>2.5</sub> and satellite-detected wildfire smoke plumes. Estimates were aggregated to the ZIP-Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) level and population weighted. Exposure days to CH and single hazards were defined using a 2-day exposure lag window with binary indicators for wildfire smoke and extreme heat. Daily exposure counts were summed by year and over the 10 years for descriptive mapping. Ten-year exposures were characterized by community factors and differences were tested using ANOVA. Exposures to compound wildfire smoke and extreme heat varied temporally and geographically, primarily driven by wildfire smoke. On average, ZCTAs experienced 3–4 CH days annually, peaking in 2020 (9.85 days). From the early (2011–2015) to later period (2016–2020), ZCTAs experienced 2.77 more annual CH days (95% CI: 2.62, 2.92; <i>p</i> < 0.0001). The number of ZCTAs exposed annually also increased. ZCTAs with persistently higher CH days had significantly higher proportions of minority populations, lower median incomes, and more urban characteristics. Our results show increasing and unequal exposure to compound wildfire smoke and extreme heat. These risks should be considered in mitigation strategies for climate-vulnerable populations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005189","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144232280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Decoding Cropland Mask Effects on the Explanatory Power of Remote Sensing and Reanalyzed Climate Data on Yield Anomalies in Africa","authors":"Wanxue Zhu, Ting Yang, Jundong Wang, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005443","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005443","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ensuring crop yield stability is crucial for food security in Africa, where agriculture faces increasing food demand amid considerable vulnerabilities. Remote sensing and reanalyzed data products offer the potential for capturing crop growth dynamics and understanding their drivers. However, the impacts of cropland masks on relative yield anomalies (RYA) and the contributions of variables across Africa and crops remain unclear. This study explores the explanatory power of air and land surface temperatures (AT and LST), precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture on maize, millet, and sorghum RYA in Africa for 2001–2020 under seven cropland masks with distinct configurations for temporal, crop type, and water supply systems. Results indicate that (a) North Africa was particularly affected by soil moisture variation and evapotranspiration, West Africa was strongly impacted by precipitation, Central and East Africa were highly influenced by mean AT and total precipitation, and South Africa was mainly affected by high LST, mean evapotranspiration, and precipitation variation. (b) Interactions between precipitation and LST improved the explanatory power of the multiple stepwise regression model from 67% to 73%, while that of the random forest model considering complex variable interactions reached 83%. (c) Variables with high contributions were less impacted by the choice of masks. Mask configurations with broader crop coverage compensated for the limitations of temporally static masks, while crop type identification enhanced explanatory power when using year-specific and crop-specific maps. Future research should integrate process-based crop models to better understand the mechanisms behind the diverse drivers of yield at the regional scale in Africa.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005443","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144206506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-06-04DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005016
Angelo Gurgel, Kanishka B. Narayan, John Reilly, Xiang Gao, Chris Vernon, Jennifer Morris, Adam Schlosser, Sergey Paltsev
{"title":"Future Spatially Explicit Patterns of Land Transitions in the United States With Multiple Stressors","authors":"Angelo Gurgel, Kanishka B. Narayan, John Reilly, Xiang Gao, Chris Vernon, Jennifer Morris, Adam Schlosser, Sergey Paltsev","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005016","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change, income and population growth, and changing diets are major drivers of the global food system with implications for land use change. Land use in the U.S. will be affected directly by local and regional forces and indirectly through international trade. In order to investigate the effects of several potential forces on land use changes in the U.S., we advanced capabilities in representing the interactions between natural and human systems by linking a multisectoral and multiregional socio-economic model of the world economy to a model that downscales land use to a 0.5°grid scale. This enables us to translate regional projections of future land use into higher-resolution representations of time-evolving land cover (effectively spatially explicit land use transitions). We applied the framework over the U.S., with a particular interest in the Mississippi River Basin and its four sub-basins, to consider how a range of global drivers affect land use and cover in the target regions. Our results show that under scenarios of high pressure on the world food system a comparative advantage in livestock production amplifies the recent trend toward less cropland and more pastures in the U.S. Under low pressures on the world food system agricultural land is used less intensively. However, there can be key differences among the various land-use transitions at the sub- basin scale. Overall, these results highlighted the need for high resolution details to explicitly understand the implications of land use change on environmental impacts such as carbon storage, soil erosion, chemical use, hydrology, and water quality.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005016","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144206770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Global Mapping of Concurrent Hazards and Impacts Associated With Climate Extremes Under Climate Change","authors":"Gabriele Messori, Derrick Muheki, Fulden Batibeniz, Emanuele Bevacqua, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Wim Thiery","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006325","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006325","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate-related extreme events impose a heavy toll on humankind, and many will likely become more frequent in the future. The compound (joint) occurrence of different climate-related hazards and impacts can further exacerbate the detrimental consequences for society. By analyzing postprocessed data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, we provide a global mapping of future changes in the compound occurrence of six categories of hazards or impacts related to climate extremes. These are: river floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, tropical cyclone-induced winds and crop failures. In line with the existing literature, we find sharp increases in the occurrence of many individual hazards and impacts, notably heatwaves and wildfires. Under a medium-high emission scenario, many regions worldwide transition from chiefly experiencing a given category of hazard or impact in isolation to routinely experiencing compound hazard or impact occurrences. A similarly striking change is projected for the future recurrence of compound hazards or impacts, with many locations experiencing specific compound occurrences at least once a year for several years, or even decades, in a row. In the absence of effective global climate mitigation actions, we may thus witness a qualitative regime shift from a world dominated by individual climate-related hazards and impacts to one where compound occurrences become the norm.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006325","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144213814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Responses of the Natural Phytoplankton Assemblage to Patagonian Dust Input and Anthropogenic Changes in the Southern Ocean","authors":"Clément Demasy, Marie Boye, Ambroise Delisée, Jean-François Maguer, Melilotus Thyssen, Léa Gest","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005762","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005762","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The cumulative effects of multi-faceted changes on the phytoplankton community of the Southern Ocean (SO) are not yet known, which is a major limitation to predicting the future direction of the biological carbon pump. Thus, our study aimed to estimate the effects of intensified Patagonian dust inputs, warming and acidification on the growth, composition and production of phytoplankton assemblages in the Polar Frontal Zone (PFZ) and the High-Nutrient Low-Chlorophyll (HNLC) region of the Indian sector of the SO during the austral summer 2022. Natural phytoplankton communities were incubated for 5-day under 4 scenarios (present and future conditions, and 2 intermediate scenarios). In the PFZ, +3°C and acidification stimulated the growth of phytoplankton, mainly cyanobacteria, while intensified dust inputs alone did not have notable impact. Conversely, in HNLC waters, the addition of Fe-dust alone increased the total chlorophyll <i>a</i> of diatoms (mainly <i>F. kerguelensis</i>), whereas the negative effect of acidification and +3°C counteracted the positive impact of dust input on the diatoms. In these waters, future conditions benefited smaller species (haptophytes and cyanobacteria). The net particulate organic carbon production (POC) was also unaltered by future conditions, suggesting that primary production may not change in the future SO. However the increase in the length and number of long-chain diatoms under future HNLC conditions may indicate that POC export could intensify in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005762","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144214005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Natural Forest Restoration Potential to Mitigate Climate Change in China","authors":"Kai Cheng, Yixuan Zhang, Yu Ren, Ang Chen, Tianyu Xiang, Zhiyong Qi, Guoran Huang, Haitao Yang, Yuling Chen, Zekun Yang, Jiachen Xu, Mengxi Chen, Guangcai Xu, Qinghua Guo","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005794","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005794","url":null,"abstract":"<p>China has achieved remarkable progress in forest conservation and restoration through extensive management efforts, including afforestation and the protection of natural forests. However, previous studies on forest carbon potential have primarily foucused on afforestation, while natural forest restoration-recognized for its superior carbon sequestration potential-remains underexplored. This study integrates historical restoration trends with future climate scenarios to quantify the spatial patterns and aboveground carbon (AGC) storage potential of natural forest restoration in China, addressing key knowledge gaps. We first examined the relationship between natural forest restoration patterns in China and climatic factors, revealing that the Mean Diurnal Range was the most positively correlated factor influencing restoration, while the Mean Temperature of the Driest Quarter had the most substantial negative impact. Based on future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), we predicted potential regions for natural forest restoration and estimated their AGC storage potential. Our findings indicated that by 2100, the area of natural forests in China could increase by 26.03 × 10<sup>4</sup> to 29.38 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>, with northeastern, southwestern, northern, and southern China showing the highest restoration potential, particularly under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, which exhibits the greatest extent of restoration. Further analysis reveals that AGC potential increases progressively with restoration efforts, reaching a maximum of 1,618.53 ± 58.36 Tg C by 2100 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. Our study highlights substantial opportunities for enhancing carbon sequestration through targeted natural restoration efforts and the integration of balanced economic growth with proactive environmental policies to promote effective natural forest restoration in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005794","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144206771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-06-04DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005776
Wenhao Dong, Ming Zhao, Lucas Harris, Kai-Yuan Cheng, Linjiong Zhou, V. Ramaswamy
{"title":"Response of Global Mesoscale Convective Systems to Increased CO2 and Uniform SST Warming in a Global Storm-Resolving Model","authors":"Wenhao Dong, Ming Zhao, Lucas Harris, Kai-Yuan Cheng, Linjiong Zhou, V. Ramaswamy","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005776","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005776","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are critical components of global energy and water cycles and significantly contribute to extreme weather events. However, projecting future MCS behavior remains challenging due to the limitations of regional models and the inadequate representation of MCSs in coarser climate models. In this study, we use GFDL's global storm-resolving model (GSRM), X-SHiELD, to explore the response of global MCSs to both increased sea surface temperatures (SST) and elevated CO<sub>2</sub> levels using three sets of unique two-year-long warming simulations. We find that SST warming leads to an increase in MCS occurrence over ocean regions while reducing it over land, whereas elevated CO<sub>2</sub> results in an overall increase over ocean and land. When SST and CO<sub>2</sub> increases are combined, their impacts on MCS changes are generally additive. Using stepwise multiple linear regression, we identify the key environmental drivers of these changes across five MCS hotspots, highlighting the regional variability in MCS responses. Furthermore, MCS-associated precipitation and its contribution to total rainfall are shaped by changes in both MCS frequency and the precipitation intensity within each event. By utilizing the explicit MCS-resolving capabilities of GSRMs, this study provides critical insights into future changes in MCS characteristics and their implications for global precipitation patterns.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005776","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144213813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-06-04DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005313
C. Bracken, N. Voisin, K. Mongird, C. D. Burleyson, K. Oikonomou
{"title":"Intensifying Renewable Energy Droughts in the Western U.S. Amid Evolving Infrastructure and Climate","authors":"C. Bracken, N. Voisin, K. Mongird, C. D. Burleyson, K. Oikonomou","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005313","url":null,"abstract":"<p>If renewable energy resources continue to become a larger part of the generation mix in the United States (U.S.), so does the potential impact of prolonged periods of low wind and solar generation, known as variable renewable energy (VRE) droughts. In such a future, naturally occurring VRE droughts need to be evaluated for their potential impact on grid reliability. This study is the first of its kind to examine the impacts of compound VRE energy droughts in the Western U.S. across a range of potential future climate and infrastructure scenarios. We find that compound VRE drought severity may increase significantly in the future, primarily due to the dramatic increase in wind and solar generation needed in some future infrastructure scenarios. We find that in our future climate scenario, the variability of energy drought severity increases, which has implications for sizing energy storage necessary for mitigating drought events. We also examine the spatial patterns of compound VRE drought events that effect multiple regions of the grid simultaneously. These co-occurring events have distinct spatial patterns depending on the season. We observed overall fewer connected events in the future with the combined effect of potential climate and infrastructure changes, although in the fall we observe a climate-induced shift toward events which impact more regions simultaneously.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005313","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144214003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Increasing Mosquito Abundance Under Global Warming","authors":"Gokul Nair, Hong-Yi Li, Jon Schwenk, Kaitlyn Martinez, Carrie Manore, Chonggang Xu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005629","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mosquitoes are a key virus vector that poses significant health threats globally, affecting 700 million individuals and causing 1 million deaths annually. Accurately predicting mosquito abundance and dispersion remains a challenge. Complex interactions between mosquito dynamics and various environmental factors, notably hydrology, contribute to this challenge. Existing models typically focus on precipitation and temperature and often overlook further impacts of hydrological variables within mosquito modeling. In this study, we developed an artificial intelligence-based model for mosquito dynamics, explicitly accounting for different hydrological variables, such as precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow. Using Toronto, Canada, as a case study, we identified causal relationships between changes in mosquito populations, hydrological factors, vegetation (e.g., leaf area index), and climate variables (e.g., daylight length, precipitation, and temperature). We embedded these relationships into a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network Model capable of accurately detecting mosquito dynamics across annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales. The LSTM is able to explain, on average, approximately 40% of the variance in the observed mosquito abundance data. Using the calibrated model, we predicted that the summer season mosquito abundance would increase by ∼16% and ∼19% under an intermediate greenhouse emission scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5, and a high greenhouse emission scenario, SSP5-8.5, respectively. We expect that this model can serve as a valuable tool and inform science-based decisions affecting mosquito dynamics and public health. It can also build a foundation for future risk analysis at the regional and larger scales.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005629","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144197214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}