Earths Future最新文献_第5页

Ground-Truth: Can Forest Carbon Protocols Ensure High-Quality Credits? 真相：森林碳协议能保证高质量的碳信用吗？

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005414

R. Sanders-DeMott, L. R. Hutyra, M. D. Hurteau, W. S. Keeton, K. S. Fallon, W. R. L. Anderegg, D. Y. Hollinger, S. E. Kuebbing, M. S. Lucash, E. M. Ordway, R. Vargas, W. S. Walker

{"title":"Ground-Truth: Can Forest Carbon Protocols Ensure High-Quality Credits?","authors":"R. Sanders-DeMott, L. R. Hutyra, M. D. Hurteau, W. S. Keeton, K. S. Fallon, W. R. L. Anderegg, D. Y. Hollinger, S. E. Kuebbing, M. S. Lucash, E. M. Ordway, R. Vargas, W. S. Walker","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005414","url":null,"abstract":"Forests have substantial potential to help mitigate climate change. Private finance channeled through carbon credits is one way to fund that mitigation, but market-based approaches to forest carbon projects have been fraught to date. Public skepticism of forest carbon markets signals a need to closely scrutinize the system for certifying carbon credits. We rigorously reviewed and scored new and existing protocols for the voluntary and North American compliance carbon markets. We included protocols for forest projects engaging in improved forest management, afforestation/reforestation, and avoided planned forest conversion. Most protocols score poorly overall, and none were assessed as robust. Only one new protocol that had yet to issue credits at the time of our evaluation was assessed as satisfactory, owing to improvements in the approach to additionality demonstration. We conclude that existing protocols do not ensure carbon credits are consistently real, high-quality, and accurately represent 1 tonne of avoided, reduced, or removed emissions. We offer recommendations for how protocols can be strengthened using existing data and new tools to promote reliably high-quality credits. Continuing to rely on the status quo without such investments is a serious risk to climate change mitigation, and in our estimation, these proposed improvements would increase the likelihood that forests carbon projects can deliver their promised climate mitigation benefits.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005414","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143950294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Spatial Baseline of China's Blue Carbon Stocks for Improved Monitoring, Management, and Protection 基于监测、管理和保护的中国蓝碳储量空间基线

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005380

Shaobo Sun, Zhaoliang Song, Laodong Guo, Carlos M. Duarte, Peter I. Macreadie, Zhen Zhang, Yunying Fang, Baozhang Chen, Zhengang Wang, Weiqi Wang, Yidong Wang, Dongjie Fu, Yuan Li, Yafei Wang, Hailong Wang, Cong-Qiang Liu

{"title":"A Spatial Baseline of China's Blue Carbon Stocks for Improved Monitoring, Management, and Protection","authors":"Shaobo Sun, Zhaoliang Song, Laodong Guo, Carlos M. Duarte, Peter I. Macreadie, Zhen Zhang, Yunying Fang, Baozhang Chen, Zhengang Wang, Weiqi Wang, Yidong Wang, Dongjie Fu, Yuan Li, Yafei Wang, Hailong Wang, Cong-Qiang Liu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005380","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005380","url":null,"abstract":"Blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs) exhibit remarkable capacities for organic carbon (C) storage, making them a promising nature-based climate solution. However, the lack of robust, spatially explicit estimates of C stocks in BCEs presents a major challenge to incorporating them into national and global C accounting and climate mitigation strategies. For the first time, we develop spatially explicit estimates of both soil and living biomass C stocks in BCEs across China by integrating open-access remote sensing, climate, and soil property data with 2,899 site measurements using a data-driven method. Our C stock estimates reveal that mean C stocks in BCEs significantly decrease with increasing latitude. We estimate the total C storage within China's BCEs at 121.1 ± 48.4 Tg C, with soil accounting for 90% of the total C storage. Tidal marshes and flats contribute a total of 64.7 ± 8.7 Tg C, while mangroves store a much smaller amount (4.4 ± 1.4 Tg C) due to their limited spatial extent. Seagrasses store a total of 52.0 ± 38.3 Tg C, which is significantly larger than previous estimates. These findings underscore the significant potential of BCEs protection and restoration for China's climate mitigation efforts. Our spatially explicit C stock estimates for China's BCEs provide essential data for national and global C accounting and can serve as baselines for quantifying the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on BCEs C stocks. Additionally, this study offers a practical framework for comprehensively assessing C stocks in BCEs at the national scale.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005380","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144074434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Model Study Exploring the Decision Loop Between Unilateral Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenario Design and Earth System Simulations

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005455

Chenrui Diao, Patrick W. Keys, Curtis M. Bell, Elizabeth A. Barnes, James W. Hurrell

{"title":"A Model Study Exploring the Decision Loop Between Unilateral Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenario Design and Earth System Simulations","authors":"Chenrui Diao, Patrick W. Keys, Curtis M. Bell, Elizabeth A. Barnes, James W. Hurrell","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005455","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005455","url":null,"abstract":"Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being discussed as a possible approach to reduce future global warming in addition to emission cuts, and numerous scenarios and Earth system model (ESM) experiments have been developed to explore its effectiveness and risks. Given the complex geopolitical, economic, and strategic considerations among countries, global cooperation in SAI deployment will be challenging. Unilateral SAI deployment has thus been highlighted as an important research topic, although it has been explored very little in scenario design and ESM studies. Inspired by a novel game theory model and a newly developed framework for identifying geopolitically plausible SAI initiator(s), this paper builds a framework for integrating unilateral SAI scenario design, geopolitical game theory, ESM simulation, and climate analyses into a single decision loop. We design and simulate a geopolitically plausible scenario of the initiation of unilateral SAI using the Community Earth System Model, and explore two independent plausible unilateral SAI reaction scenarios following the climate storylines under the initiator scenario. Our work demonstrates an approach to explore the complex feedbacks between unilateral SAI deployment scenarios and the simulation of the subsequent climate storylines.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005455","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Escalating Hydrological Extremes and Whiplashes in the Western U.S.: Challenges for Water Management and Frontline Communities

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005447

Wenzhao Li, Surendra Maharjan, Joshua B. Fisher, Thomas Piechota, Hesham El-Askary

{"title":"Escalating Hydrological Extremes and Whiplashes in the Western U.S.: Challenges for Water Management and Frontline Communities","authors":"Wenzhao Li, Surendra Maharjan, Joshua B. Fisher, Thomas Piechota, Hesham El-Askary","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005447","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005447","url":null,"abstract":"The Western U.S. is experiencing significant changes in its hydrological dynamics, marked by increased variability and rapid “whiplash” shifts between extreme drought and flood conditions. This study quantified these changes using a customized hydrological water year index, which correlated better with surface water storage in the basins than other drought/wetness indicators. Application of the index revealed heightened hydrological extremes and whiplash events post-2015 in all Western U.S. basins, with nearly 72% of stations facing critically dry conditions in 2021 and over 54% experiencing extreme wet conditions in 2023. Future projections indicate a decline of 8.5%–13.2% in non-extreme water year types across major basins, accompanied by increases in both extreme wet and dry water year types. Our findings suggest that similar levels of multi-year drought duration and water deficits will likely occur regardless of future warming scenarios. This trend significantly impacts agriculture, the environment, and urban water use sectors. Notably, vulnerable frontline communities with higher risks and lower resilience experience disproportionate impacts from droughts compared to other communities.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005447","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Spatial Distribution and Temporal Drivers of Changing Global Fire Regimes: A Coupled Socio-Ecological Modeling Approach

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004770

Oliver Perkins, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Tamsin Edwards, Olivia Haas, James D. A. Millington

{"title":"The Spatial Distribution and Temporal Drivers of Changing Global Fire Regimes: A Coupled Socio-Ecological Modeling Approach","authors":"Oliver Perkins, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Tamsin Edwards, Olivia Haas, James D. A. Millington","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004770","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004770","url":null,"abstract":"The limited capacity of fire-enabled vegetation models to represent human influences on fire regimes is a fundamental challenge in fire science. This limitation places a major constraint on our capacity to understand how vegetation fire may change under future scenarios of climate change and socio-economic development. Here, we address this challenge by presenting a novel integration of two process-based models. The first is the Wildfire Human Agency Model (WHAM!), which draws on agent-based approaches to represent anthropogenic fire use and management. The second is JULES-INFERNO, a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model, which takes a physically grounded approach to the representation of vegetation-fire dynamics. The combined model enables a coupled socio-ecological simulation of historical burned area. We calibrate the combined model using GFED5 burned area data and perform an independent evaluation using MODIS-based fire radiative power observations. Results suggest that as much as half of all global burned area is generated by managed anthropogenic fires—typically small fires that are lit for, and then spread according to, land user objectives. Furthermore, we demonstrate that including representation of managed anthropogenic fires in a coupled socio-ecological simulation improves understanding of the drivers of unmanaged wildfires. For example, we show how vegetation flammability and landscape fragmentation control inter-annual variability and longer-term change in unmanaged fires. Overall, findings presented here indicate that both socio-economic and climate change will be vital in determining the future trajectory of fire on Earth.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004770","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Projecting Multiscale River Flood Changes Across Japan at +2°C and +4°C Climates

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005884

Jiachao Chen, Takahiro Sayama, Masafumi Yamada, Tomohiro Tanaka, Yoshito Sugawara

{"title":"Projecting Multiscale River Flood Changes Across Japan at +2°C and +4°C Climates","authors":"Jiachao Chen, Takahiro Sayama, Masafumi Yamada, Tomohiro Tanaka, Yoshito Sugawara","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005884","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005884","url":null,"abstract":"This study addresses computational challenges in high-resolution, large-domain, process-based flood quantile estimation, focusing on Japan's future flood risks at 150 m resolution. Using the Aggregating Grid Event (AGE) method, the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model, and the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) approach, it incorporates 2,160-year precipitation data from a 5-km dynamically downscaled ensemble (d4PDF DDSJP) across three climate stages (historical, +2°C, +4°C). The AGE method identified critical precipitation events for the flood quantile estimations and the POT method was employed to estimate 100-year discharge (Q100) for over 2.2 million river grid cells. Key findings include: (a) Nationwide, 100-year discharge (Q100) is projected to increase 1.16 times (+2°C) and 1.37 times (+4°C), with equivalent return periods reduced to 45 years (+2°C) and 23 years (+4°C). Northern regions (Hokkaido and Tohoku) are particularly climate-sensitive, exceeding national averages in Q100 increases. (b) Small river basins and transition zones from plains to mountains exhibit higher increase ratios, necessitating targeted flood prevention measures. (c) Flash flood risks are expected to rise, with most national basins seeing flashiness increases of over 10% (+2°C) and 20% (+4°C). Southern Japan faces further flash flood intensification, while Northern Japan under +4°C stage anticipates emerging challenges related to flash floods. The study underscores the urgency of adaptive flood management strategies to mitigate increasing risks, offering a foundation for informed policymaking and public-engaged mitigation. Simulation data opens pathways for further research on cascading disaster scenarios in +2°C and +4°C climates.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005884","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Irreversible Land Water Availability Changes From a Potential ITCZ Shift During Temperature Overshoot

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005787

Norman Julius Steinert, Jörg Schwinger, Robin Chadwick, Jong-Seong Kug, Hanna Lee

{"title":"Irreversible Land Water Availability Changes From a Potential ITCZ Shift During Temperature Overshoot","authors":"Norman Julius Steinert, Jörg Schwinger, Robin Chadwick, Jong-Seong Kug, Hanna Lee","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005787","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005787","url":null,"abstract":"Without rapid emission reduction, it is increasingly likely that global temperatures will overshoot 1.5°C before carbon dioxide removal may help reverse warming. Such temperature overshoots affect the future hydrological cycle, with implications for land water availability. However, the hydrological response to such temperature overshoots is not well understood. Here, we investigate regional and seasonal changes of precipitation minus evaporation (P − E) in an ensemble of Earth system model simulations of temperature overshoot. Most climate models broadly show P − E reversibility after overshoot. However, models exhibiting an irreversible shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the temperature overshoot experience reduced wet-season and enhanced dry-season land water availability in tropical regions, which has long-lasting effects on the amplitude of P − E seasonality after the overshoot, constituting irreversible changes on human timescales. While some regions may experience alleviating seasonal hydrological conditions, others are subject to more intense seasonality. Half a century of CO2-stabilization after the temperature overshoot only halves the legacy effects of the overshoot on land water availability on over 23% of the world population in 12% of the global land area, covering regions of various hydrological regimes. Based on the model ensemble presented here, a strong irreversible shift of the ITCZ after an overshoot is a low-probability but high-impact outcome that would entail long-lasting hydrological changes with consequences for ecosystems and human societies.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005787","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

No Robust Sign of Human Influence in the Unprecedented Atmospheric Circulation of Summer 2018 Over Northern Europe

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006290

C. E. Iles, R. Vautard, M. Vrac

{"title":"No Robust Sign of Human Influence in the Unprecedented Atmospheric Circulation of Summer 2018 Over Northern Europe","authors":"C. E. Iles, R. Vautard, M. Vrac","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006290","url":null,"abstract":"The summer of 2018 was characterized by prolonged heatwaves over Northern Europe, associated with persistent atmospheric blocking, and an unusually northward jet stream location over Scandinavia. Whilst event attribution studies tend to focus on the change in probability or magnitude of the extreme temperatures themselves, we provide context to these studies by examining whether there are human induced trends in the atmospheric circulation that might affect the likelihood of similar extreme circulation patterns and associated heat waves occurring in the future. We examine trends and variability in summer jet latitude, blocking frequency and overall circulation pattern over the Scandinavian sector in a variety of reanalyses and climate model ensembles. Both the number of blocked days, and the average jet location for summer 2018 were unprecedented in the reanalyses, and rare in climate model simulations. We found no robust evidence of past or future externally forced changes in summer blocking frequency over Scandinavia in model simulations, whilst trends in circulation analogs were also largely insignificant. Trends in jet latitude were dependent on the time period examined, models included and other analysis choices. Overall, we found no robust evidence for systematic trends in average or extreme years toward Summer 2018-like conditions for any of the three indices, nor in the frequency of co-occurring extreme northward jet latitude and high blocking frequency. We conclude that Summer 2018s circulation can likely be explained by internal atmospheric variability.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006290","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ecosystem-Scale Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Water Vapor Fluxes From Subtropical Brackish Fishponds: Temporal Variability, Environmental Drivers, and Implications for Nature-Based Climate Solutions

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005277

Jiangong Liu, Suvadip Neogi, Derrick Y. F. Lai

{"title":"Ecosystem-Scale Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Water Vapor Fluxes From Subtropical Brackish Fishponds: Temporal Variability, Environmental Drivers, and Implications for Nature-Based Climate Solutions","authors":"Jiangong Liu, Suvadip Neogi, Derrick Y. F. Lai","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005277","url":null,"abstract":"Coastal wetlands such as mangroves have a great potential in sequestering blue carbon and mitigating future climate change. Yet, these wetlands are being increasingly converted to aquaculture ponds, which could trigger a pulse emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from existing carbon stocks, a loss of opportunity for future carbon sequestration from mangroves, and an additional GHG emission incurred from pond establishment and operation. In this study, we determined the magnitude, temporal variations and environmental drivers of ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and water vapor fluxes from the subtropical brackish fishponds using the eddy covariance technique, and assessed the net carbon impact arising from the conversion of mangroves to fishponds under three conservation scenarios. Our results showed that the brackish fishponds were significant sources of carbon and water, with a mean annual emission of 687.6 ± 83.1 gC m−2 for CO2, 101.5 ± 2.7 gC m−2 for CH4, and 2422.5 ± 48.0 mm for water vapor. Fishpond CH4 and water vapor fluxes exhibited distinct seasonal patterns with higher fluxes in summer. CO2, CH4, and water vapor fluxes were driven predominantly by shortwave radiation, air temperature, and wind speed, respectively. At the current deforestation rate, the global carbon impact arising from mangrove conversion to fishponds could reach 109 Gt CO2-equivalent by 2100. Halting global mangrove conversion to aquaculture ponds by 2030 could reduce the net carbon impact by 90.2 Gt CO2-equivalents by 2100. Thus, preserving coastal wetlands from conversion to aquaculture ponds is among the most effective nature-based climate solutions.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005277","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global Terrestrial Carbon Storage Change Affected by Future Land Dynamics Under Social-Climate Scenarios

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005873

Guangzhao Chen, Xiaoping Liu, Xia Li

{"title":"Global Terrestrial Carbon Storage Change Affected by Future Land Dynamics Under Social-Climate Scenarios","authors":"Guangzhao Chen, Xiaoping Liu, Xia Li","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005873","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005873","url":null,"abstract":"In the current efforts to address global climate change, terrestrial carbon storage is a significant source of carbon sinks. Moreover, with the progress of urbanization, changes in land cover have led to increasingly unavoidable changes in terrestrial carbon storage. However, there is still a lack of research on the impact of land cover change on global terrestrial carbon storage under the latest IPCC scenarios. Therefore, this study utilizes the InVEST model to examine the impact of future land dynamics on global terrestrial carbon storage under various SSP-RCP scenarios from 2015 to 2100. The results reveal significant regional differences and trends. For instance, under the SSP4-3.4 scenario, global terrestrial carbon storage loss could reach up to 30.2 PgC due to land conversions, such as the transformation of tropical rainforests into bioenergy crops in Indonesia. The social cost of offsetting terrestrial carbon loss could range from trillions to tens of trillions of dollars in various scenarios. Additionally, our analysis indicates that urban expansion generally reduces carbon storage, but strategic urban planning can mitigate this impact. In ecological protected areas and biodiversity hotspots, we observed a polarized trend: areas with increasing carbon storage are experiencing growth at a faster rate than historically, while areas with decreasing carbon storage are facing accelerated losses. This disparity underscores the necessity for targeted conservation efforts. In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of sound land management and policy interventions in mitigating terrestrial carbon storage losses, protecting ecologically sensitive areas, and achieving climate goals.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005873","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0