Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Inorganic Nitrogen Nutrition in Boreal Plants Is Underestimated and Insensitive to Environmental Changes","authors":"Chong-Juan Chen,&nbsp;Xue-Yan Liu,&nbsp;Chao-Chen Hu,&nbsp;Shi-Qi Xu,&nbsp;Xian-Wei Wang,&nbsp;Rong Mao,&nbsp;Keisuke Koba","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005723","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005723","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Although more and more evidences on plant uptake of soil extractable inorganic N (EIN) challenged the traditional viewpoint of soil extractable organic N (EON) as the dominant (averaging 63 ± 6%) N source to boreal plants, relative contributions between EIN and EON to boreal plants and their environmental responses remain unclear. By investigating N concentrations and natural N isotopes in soils and plants, we evaluated and compared contributions of soil EIN and EON to plants of six same genera between Alaskan tundra (AT) with lower mean annual temperature (MAT, −6.8°C) and atmospheric N deposition (AND) (AND, 0.4 kg-N/ha/yr) and northeastern China peatlands (NECP) with higher MAT (−3.3°C) and AND (5.1 kg-N/ha/yr). Soil EIN was three times less than EON, but it contributed c.a. 54 ± 7% of N among studied plants. In NECP, higher MAT and AND caused more increments (by three times) in soil EON than EIN, but soil EIN's contributions to plants did not differ between AT (52 ± 6%) and NECP (57 ± 7%). We concluded that soil EIN's contributions to boreal plants are underestimated (by 17%) and insensitive to concurring warmer climates and higher N deposition. These findings highlighted the importance of soil EIN nutrition to boreal plants and suggested potentially more EON losses under projected warming climate and increasing N pollution, which are useful for evaluating responses of N dynamics in boreal ecosystems to global changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005723","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143939226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prediction of Future Chlorophyll-a Concentrations in Large Eutrophic Shallow Lakes Under Multiple Stressors","authors":"Zhen Wei,&nbsp;Yanxin Yu,&nbsp;Yujun Yi","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005293","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005293","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Assessing future chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) changes is crucial for developing effective lake management programs. Future assessments should integrate socio-economic and climatic factors, including extreme climate impacts. However, such assessments are lacking. This study developed a novel framework and integrated model to analyze Chl-a response in Chaohu Lake to climate (e.g., precipitation, temperature, and wind) and socio-economic (e.g., population, fertilizer application, and livestock farming). The results indicated that by around 2050, the Chl-a concentration would change by −6.5% to −0.1% compared to around 2020. While socio-economic and climatic factors significantly altered nitrogen and phosphorus loading, exogenous loading had a minimal effect on Chl-a due to high endogenous releases. The decrease in Chl-a is mainly due to the increase in precipitation. Chl-a reduction was primarily driven by increased precipitation (0.6%–12.9%), leading to −9.4% to −4.4% Chl-a changes. The runoff increase also provided an opportunity to treat the heavily polluted lake area. Air temperature increases of 5.1%–9.2% resulted in Chl-a increases of 0.9%–3.1%. On annual scales the effects of precipitation and temperature were mainly due to changes in mean values. The effects of variability were significant at seasonal scales, for example, lower spring temperatures favored a decrease in summer Chl-a. There was uncertainty about the impact of future wind speeds. This study emphasized the importance of comprehensively quantifying the impacts of external pressures in lake water quality assessment and provided a reference and pathway support for the assessment and management of large, shallow lakes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005293","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143939227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transformation in the Forest Ecosystem of Northeastern China Driven by Human Factors Over the Past 1600 Years","authors":"Yong Luo,&nbsp;Xin Zhou,&nbsp;Sihan Sun,&nbsp;Xiaoyan Liu,&nbsp;Shiwei Jiang,&nbsp;Anze Chen,&nbsp;Xuanqiao Liu,&nbsp;Hongfei Zhao,&nbsp;Min Ding,&nbsp;Liqiang Xu,&nbsp;Xiaolin Zhang,&nbsp;Zhuoya Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005661","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005661","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Human-driven degradation of forest ecosystems has profoundly altered land cover, disrupted ecosystem functions, and contributed to climate variability. Understanding long-term changes in forest composition and resilience is crucial for developing effective, evidence-based restoration strategies. This study presents a 1,600-year paleoecological reconstruction of forest dynamics in northeastern China, based on sedimentary pollen records from Sihailongwan Maar Lake. The findings reveal that from 480 to 1930 CE, natural factors primarily governed forest dynamics, allowing for a stable adaptation of mixed coniferous and broadleaved species to climate fluctuations. However, since 1930 CE, human activities have become the dominant force, leading to significant shifts in forest structure, reduced coniferous populations, and a substantial decline in ecological resilience. This study provides an ecological baseline based on naturally driven forest dynamics, offering essential guidance for restoring a resilient mixed coniferous-broadleaved forest structure. Furthermore, these recommendations emphasize the importance of strengthening forest protection, limiting logging, and engaging local communities in conservation efforts. However, as global warming continues to accelerate, the ecological baseline derived from historical dynamics may become less applicable. This necessitates the establishment of new baselines that take future ecological changes into account.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005661","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143939228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatially and Seasonally Differentiated Response of Soil Moisture Droughts to Climate Change in Germany","authors":"Friedrich Boeing,&nbsp;Sabine Attinger,&nbsp;Thorsten Wagener,&nbsp;Oldrich Rakovec,&nbsp;Luis Samaniego,&nbsp;Stephan Thober,&nbsp;Julian Schlaak,&nbsp;Sebastian Müller,&nbsp;Claas Teichmann,&nbsp;Rohini Kumar,&nbsp;Andreas Marx","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005495","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005495","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global warming is altering soil moisture (SM) droughts in Europe with a strong drying trend projected in the Mediterranean and wetting trends projected in Scandinavia. Central Europe, including Germany, lies in a transitional zone showing weaker and diverging change signals exposing the region to uncertainties. The recent extreme drought years in Germany, which resulted in multi-sectoral impacts accounting to combined drought and heat damages of 35 billion Euros and large scale forest losses, underline the relevance of studying future changes in SM droughts. To analyze the projected SM drought changes and associated uncertainties in Germany, we utilize a large ensemble of 57 bias-adjusted and spatially disaggregated regional climate model simulations to run the hydrologic model mHM at a high spatial resolution of approximately 1.2 km. We show that projections of future changes in soil moisture droughts over Germany depend on the emission scenario, the soil depth and the timing during the vegetation growing period. Most robust and widespread increases in soil moisture drought intensities are projected for upper soil layers in the late growing season (July–September) under the high emission scenario. There are greater uncertainties in the changes in soil moisture droughts in the early vegetation growing period (April–June). We find stronger imprints of changes in meteorological drivers controlling the spatial disparities of SM droughts than regional diversity in physio-geographic landscape properties. Our study provides nuanced insights into SM drought changes for an important climatic transition zone and is therefore relevant for regions with similar transitions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005495","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143926001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Groundwater Level Projections for Aquifers Affected by Annual to Decadal Hydroclimate Variations: Example of Northern France","authors":"Sivarama Krishna Reddy Chidepudi,&nbsp;Nicolas Massei,&nbsp;Abderrahim Jardani,&nbsp;Abel Henriot,&nbsp;Matthieu Fournier,&nbsp;Bastien Dieppois","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005251","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In a context where anticipating future trends and long-term variations in water resources is crucial, improving our knowledge about most types of aquifer responses to climate variability and change is necessary. Aquifers with variability dominated by seasonal (marked annual cycle) or low-frequency variations (interannual to decadal variations driven by large-scale climate dynamics) may encounter different sensitivities to climate change. We investigated this hypothesis by generating groundwater level projections using deep learning models for annual, inertial (low-frequency dominated) or mixed annual/low-frequency aquifer types in northern France from 16 CMIP6 climate model inputs in an ensemble approach. Generated projections were then analyzed for trends and changes in variability. Generally, groundwater levels tended to decrease for all types and scenarios across 2030–2100 without any significant differences between emission scenarios. However, when comparing future projections to historical data, groundwater levels appeared slightly higher in the near future (2030–2050), with decreasing intensities in later periods. The variability of projections showed slightly increasing variability for annual types for all scenarios but decreasing variability for mixed and inertial types. As the severity of the scenario increased, more mixed and inertial-type stations appeared to be affected by decreasing variability. Focusing on low-frequency confirmed this observation: while a significant amount of stations showed increasing variability for the less severe SSP2-4.5 scenario, low-frequency variability eventually showed slight yet statistically significant decreasing trends as the severity of the scenario increased. For the most severe scenario, almost all stations were affected by decreasing low-frequency variability.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005251","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143926002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolution of Heat Extremes Under Net-Zero CO2 Emissions","authors":"Liam J. Cassidy,&nbsp;Andrew D. King,&nbsp;Josephine R. Brown,&nbsp;Tilo Ziehn,&nbsp;Alex Borowiak","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005399","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005399","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have warmed the planet by around 1.3°C and have contributed to the intensification of heat extremes. To stop continued global warming, we understand that we must reach and sustain net-zero global CO₂ emissions, however, there is limited knowledge on how heat extremes might change in net-zero futures. In this study, we explore possible changes in temperature extreme intensity over the century after net-zero CO₂ emissions using projections from Earth System Models in the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP). Specifically, we investigate how regional single-day temperature extreme intensities scale with global mean surface temperatures changes before and after net-zero CO₂ emissions. We also explore potential hydrological drivers of changes in temperature extreme scaling by performing focused investigations over the Mediterranean and Southern African regions. Our results show substantial reductions in scaling of temperature extreme intensity after reaching net-zero CO₂ emissions over nearly all land regions, however, scaling changes are dependent on the cumulative emissions prior to reaching net-zero CO₂. Temperature extreme scaling reductions after net-zero CO₂ are also regionally dependent, and the regional magnitudes of scaling reductions tend to favor mid-latitude land in the Northern Hemisphere relative to tropical and Southern Hemispheric land masses. From focused investigations over the Mediterranean and Southern African regions, we find that changes in atmospheric circulation and local precipitation may play a major role in determining the sign and magnitude of changes in temperature extremes after net-zero CO₂ emissions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005399","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143919372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Case for the Anthropocene Epoch Is Stronger Than the Case for the Holocene Epoch","authors":"Alasdair Skelton,&nbsp;Kevin J. Noone","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005719","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005719","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The recommendation that the Anthropocene be denoted as a geological epoch was recently rejected by the International Union of Geological Sciences. Here, we compare the scientific rationales presented for the Anthropocene, the Holocene and the six other epochs in the Cenozoic Era: the Pleistocene, the Pliocene, the Miocene, the Oligocene, the Eocene and the Paleocene. We also present a historical perspective on the process through which the Holocene was accepted as a formal geological epoch. We conclude that, from a purely geological perspective, the scientific case for the Anthropocene as a geological epoch is stronger than the case for the Holocene and as good as or better than the cases for several other epochs in the Cenozoic Era.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005719","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143914019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reducing Inequities in the Future Air Pollution Health Burden Over Europe","authors":"Connor J. Clayton,&nbsp;Steven T. Turnock,&nbsp;Daniel R. Marsh,&nbsp;Ailish M. Graham,&nbsp;Carly L. Reddington,&nbsp;Karn Vohra,&nbsp;James B. McQuaid","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005404","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;The strategies that policymakers take to mitigate climate change will have considerable implications for human exposure to air quality, with air quality co-benefits anticipated from climate change mitigation. Few studies try to model these co-benefits at a regional scale and even fewer consider health inequalities in their analyses. We analyze the health impacts across Western and Central Europe from exposure to fine particulate matter (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;PM&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2.5&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{PM}}_{2.5}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;) and surface level ozone (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;O&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;3&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${mathrm{O}}_{3}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;) in 2014 and in 2050 using three scenarios with different levels of climate change mitigation, using a high-resolution atmospheric chemistry model to simulate future air quality. We use recent health functions to estimate mortality related to the aforementioned pollutants. We also analyze the relationship between air quality mortality rate per 100,000 people and Human Development Index to establish if reductions in air quality mortality are achieved equitably. We find that air quality-related mortality (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;PM&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2.5&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{PM}}_{2.5}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; + &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;O&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;3&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${mathrm{O}}_{3}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; mortality) will only reduce in the future following a high-mitigation scenario (54%). It could increase by 7.5% following a medium-mitigation scenario and by 8.3% following a weak mitigation scenario. The differences are driven by larger reductions in &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;PM&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2.5&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{PM}}_{2.5}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;-related mortality and a small reduction in &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 ","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005404","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143908913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comprehensive Evaluation of Water-Retention and Cooling Capacities of Urban Green Space Under Different Climatic Conditions Across China","authors":"Jianping Wu,&nbsp;Zhenzhen Xiao,&nbsp;Chaoqun Zhang,&nbsp;Wenting Yan,&nbsp;Jiashun Ren,&nbsp;Ziyin Liao,&nbsp;Raffaele Lafortezza,&nbsp;Xueyan Li,&nbsp;Yongxian Su","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004757","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004757","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Urban green spaces play a crucial role in addressing pressing environmental challenges, such as alleviating the urban heat island effect and enhancing water retention. However, there remains a research gap in understanding the simultaneous benefits of water-retention and cooling capacities, especially under the diverse climatic conditions across China. Utilizing robust methodologies and remote sensing data, our study evaluates the dynamic interplay between aridity index (AI) and retention-cooling performances of urban green spaces in both cold and warm season from 2003 to 2018. Results demonstrated that water-retention capacity is more effective in relatively arid regions, whereas cooling capacity is more pronounced in humid regions, with both effects being largely season-dependent. In addition, green space proportion significantly influences the relationship between AI and retention-cooling performances, particularly for cooling capacity, which exhibits opposite trends between cold and warm seasons. Future projection analysis indicate that climate change scenarios could significantly alter retention-cooling performances, potentially leading to notable deviations from the patterns observed during the historical periods across different climate zones, with an increasing dependence on changes in local climatic conditions. The inconsistent performance of urban green spaces in terms of water-retention and cooling across seasons and various climate regions, highlighting the importance of context-specific greening strategies to sustain and enhance urban resilience to future climate change in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004757","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the Effect of Glacier Runoff Changes on Basin Runoff and Agricultural Production in the Indus, Amu Darya, and Tarim Interior Basins","authors":"R. Calvo-Gallardo,&nbsp;F. Lambert,&nbsp;N. Álamos,&nbsp;A. Urquiza","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005064","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is leading to a substantial reduction in glacier mass, and it is anticipated that during this century, the peak water contribution of glaciers to runoff will occur in major glacierized basins around the world. Glacier runoff is a crucial source of water in mountain basins, and a decrease in its contribution can affect agricultural production. In this study, we modeled the agricultural sector's response to changes in glacier runoff in the Asian basins of Amu Darya, Tarim Interior, and Indus, using the Global Change Analysis Model, which was driven by surface runoff derived from the Xanthos hydrological model and the Open Global Glacier Model. Our findings indicate that under SSP5-8.5, there is an increase in accessible water during the Peak-Water Glacier Runoff compared to the Historical Glacier Runoff scenario. However, accessible water under SSP58.5 falls below the Historical Glacier Runoff scenario in the last decades of the 21st century. The initial increase in accessible water drives the GCAM agricultural model to increase the production of oil crops, root tubers, sugar crops, and fruits, but only temporarily until peak glacier runoff occurrence. In Pakistan, we observe the adaptive response of neighboring basins (increased production) to a reduction in crop production in the Amu Darya and Indus and vice versa. Our results support the argument that policymakers should implement a holistic long-term perspective, in which the apparent positive economic effect of the temporary increase in accessible water is balanced with the threat to intergenerational access to freshwater and ecosystem conservation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005064","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143889005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}