Earths Future最新文献_第6页

Temporally Compound Heatwave and Its Interaction With Urban Heat Island Over Mainland China 中国大陆复合热浪及其与城市热岛的相互作用

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006490

Liwei Zhang, Weilin Liao, Xuan Chen, Shanjun Cheng, Jiachuan Yang

{"title":"Temporally Compound Heatwave and Its Interaction With Urban Heat Island Over Mainland China","authors":"Liwei Zhang, Weilin Liao, Xuan Chen, Shanjun Cheng, Jiachuan Yang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006490","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006490","url":null,"abstract":"Temporally compound heatwaves (CHWs), two consecutive heatwaves (HWs) with an intermittent cool break between them, are projected to occur more frequently under a warming globe. However, their spatiotemporal characteristics and interaction with urban heat island (UHI) are unexplored at the continental scale. Using observational data from over 2000 ground-based stations over China, we find that CHWs constitute an increasing portion of HW hazard from 1961 to 2021. The increasing trend is especially evident when using the daily minimum temperature to define hot days, suggesting an aggravated thermal environment at night. Urban-rural contrast of CHW trends illustrates that urbanization contributes substantially to the increased frequency of CHWs in cities, especially in southern China. Results show that mean UHI intensity (UHII) tends to weaken under HW and CHW conditions, which correlates with increased pressure and reduced precipitation. During CHW events, UHII reduces during cool break due to enhanced evaporative cooling in urban areas under precipitation. The interaction between UHI and HW is subject to change with background climate, which is positive for dry regions and negative for wet regions. This study provides insights into CHW evolution over mainland China and demonstrates the need for heat mitigation strategies under climate change.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006490","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144833044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Agrivoltaic Grazing Systems for a Sustainable Future: A Multi-Disciplinary Review & Gap Analysis 面向可持续未来的农牧系统：多学科回顾与差距分析

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005429

T. Bacon, A. C. Monlezun, M. Hong, J. Macknick, N. de Vries, L. Edwards-Callaway, K. Paustian

{"title":"Agrivoltaic Grazing Systems for a Sustainable Future: A Multi-Disciplinary Review & Gap Analysis","authors":"T. Bacon, A. C. Monlezun, M. Hong, J. Macknick, N. de Vries, L. Edwards-Callaway, K. Paustian","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005429","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005429","url":null,"abstract":"Solar photovoltaics (PV) is the fastest growing source of electricity in the world, however, its expansion has raised concerns about the displacement of agriculture and the degradation of rangeland ecosystems. This has prompted research and development of multi-land-use systems that co-prioritize energy production alongside agriculture, commonly referred to as agrivoltaics. Currently, agrivoltaic grazing (also called solar grazing) is one of the most common forms of these systems. However, peer-reviewed research on these systems is limited. This review synthesizes research on agrivoltaic grazing systems, drawing upon literature addressing agrivoltaics broadly and considering relevant literature in adjacent fields of study. Based on this review, we identify six key gaps and priority directions for future research. These include foundational fieldwork to characterize the layered ecological impacts of solar PV and grazing and understand PV-livestock integration from both an animal welfare and a PV infrastructure perspective. This will facilitate the development of biogeochemical and economic models that improve our predictive capacity and ability to compare system designs. We also identify gaps in understanding the human aspects of these systems and emphasize the importance of utilizing collaborative research methods and increasing research on the social dimensions of agrivoltaic grazing systems.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005429","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144833043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Increased Soil Greenhouse Gas Emissions From the Combined Use of Cover Crops and No-Tillage in Producer-Managed Fields 在生产者管理的农田中，覆盖作物和免耕联合使用增加了土壤温室气体排放

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006009

Yu Peng, Pierre-Andre Jacinthe, Edward G. Dobrowolski, Lixin Wang

{"title":"Increased Soil Greenhouse Gas Emissions From the Combined Use of Cover Crops and No-Tillage in Producer-Managed Fields","authors":"Yu Peng, Pierre-Andre Jacinthe, Edward G. Dobrowolski, Lixin Wang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006009","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006009","url":null,"abstract":"Cover crop adoption offers multiple benefits and climate mitigation potential for agroecosystems, but is still an underutilized conservation practice. Recently, the combined use of cover cropping plus no-tillage (CCNT) has been increasingly promoted to achieve its synergistic effectiveness. Yet, how this combined practice affects soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emission remains a topic of debate. Existing studies are predominantly based on research-managed settings and often fail to assess all three major GHGs of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4). To address these knowledge gaps, this study conducted a 30-month monitoring from producer-managed fields to quantify the soil greenhouse gas responses to CCNT compared to no-tillage (NT) alone. The findings showed that CCNT increased the soil global warming potential (GWP) by 15.2% relative to NT. CO2 is the main contributor, accounting for over 91.7% of the total GWP. On average, the daily fluxes of CO2, N2O, and CH4 were increased by 16.2%, 32.3%, and 55.6% under CCNT, respectively. Meteorological variables explained 85.3% of the CO2 increase and 46.1% of the N2O increase associated with CCNT. Furthermore, two types of CCNT practices differed in GHG emission responses, though both strategies significantly reduced nitrogen losses. These quantitative results, derived from actual production systems, provide informed decision-making among local producers regarding the adoption of cover crops. Moreover, this field-based evidence offers a robust empirical foundation for future modeling efforts aimed at assessing the ecological benefits of cover crops under varying climatic and soil conditions.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006009","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144833054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Interacting Sea-Level Rise, Sea-Ice Loss, Storm Flooding, Erosion, and Permafrost Thaw Threaten Ecosystems, Wildlife, and Communities on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta 海平面上升、海冰损失、风暴洪水、侵蚀和永久冻土融化的相互作用威胁着育空-库斯库温三角洲的生态系统、野生动物和社区

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006015

M. Torre Jorgenson, James Sedinger, Craig Ely, Ann Fienup-Riordan, David E. Atkinson, James Ayuluk, Dana Brown, Gerald V. Frost, Benjamin M. Jones, Janet Jorgenson, Frank Keim, Rachel A. Loehman, Matt Macander, Alice Rearden

{"title":"Interacting Sea-Level Rise, Sea-Ice Loss, Storm Flooding, Erosion, and Permafrost Thaw Threaten Ecosystems, Wildlife, and Communities on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta","authors":"M. Torre Jorgenson, James Sedinger, Craig Ely, Ann Fienup-Riordan, David E. Atkinson, James Ayuluk, Dana Brown, Gerald V. Frost, Benjamin M. Jones, Janet Jorgenson, Frank Keim, Rachel A. Loehman, Matt Macander, Alice Rearden","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006015","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006015","url":null,"abstract":"The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta has the largest intertidal wetland in North America, is a globally critical breeding area for waterbirds, and is home to the largest regional indigenous population in the Arctic. Here, coastal tundra ecosystems, wildlife, and indigenous communities are highly vulnerable to sea-ice loss in the Bering Sea, sea-level rise, storm flooding, erosion, and collapsing ground from permafrost thaw caused by climate warming. These drivers interact in non-linear ways to increase flooding, salinization, and sedimentation, and thus, alter ecosystem trajectories and broader landscape evolution. Rapid changes in these factors over decadal time scales are highly likely to cause transformative shifts in coastal ecosystems across roughly 70% of the outer delta this century. We project saline and brackish ecotypes on the active delta floodplain with frequent sedimentation will maintain dynamic equilibrium with sea-level rise and flooding, slightly brackish ecotypes on the inactive floodplain with infrequent flooding and low sedimentation rates will be vulnerable to increased flooding and likely transition to more saline and brackish ecotypes, and fresh lacustrine and lowland ecotypes on the abandoned floodplain with permafrost plateaus will be vulnerable to thermokarst, salinization and flooding that will shift them toward brackish ecosystems. This will greatly affect bird nesting and foraging habitats, with both winners and losers. Already, some Yup'ik communities are facing relocation of their low-lying villages. The societal challenges and consequences of adapting to these changing landscapes are enormous and will require a huge societal effort.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006015","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144811154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Predicting the Start of the Growing Season in Boreal Forest Under High and Low Emission Scenarios 高、低排放情景下北方森林生长期开始的预测

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005622

Zhe Sun, Jianjun Zhao, Hongyan Zhang, Yeqiao Wang, LiangXian Fan, Zhengxiang Zhang, Xiaoyi Guo, Zhoupeng Ren, Tao Xiong, Wala Du, Meiyu Wang, Mingyang Deng

{"title":"Predicting the Start of the Growing Season in Boreal Forest Under High and Low Emission Scenarios","authors":"Zhe Sun, Jianjun Zhao, Hongyan Zhang, Yeqiao Wang, LiangXian Fan, Zhengxiang Zhang, Xiaoyi Guo, Zhoupeng Ren, Tao Xiong, Wala Du, Meiyu Wang, Mingyang Deng","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005622","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005622","url":null,"abstract":"The impact of global climate change on ecosystems has become increasingly pronounced, particularly with global warming leading to the earlier of the Start of the Growing Season (SOS). However, changes in SOS under future climate scenarios remain unclear. Therefore, this study uses remote sensing-based SOS data sets and bio-climatic variables to develop pixel-level SOS simulation models through machine learning methods. Future SOS predictions for boreal forest regions are made using climate data from four emission scenarios: SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. The results show that two machine learning models exhibit good simulation performance across the study area, with the RMSE for most pixels controlled within 9 days. Furthermore, predictions of future SOS based on these two models suggest that under all four emission scenarios, the SOS in boreal forest regions shows a significant advancing trend. Notably, as emission levels increase, the advancing trend in SOS becomes more pronounced. However, there are variations in the trends observed for different vegetation types. Our findings emphasize that the advancing trend in SOS differs under various emission scenarios and exhibits distinct vegetation type-specific and spatial distribution patterns. These changes will have profound implications for biodiversity and ecosystem stability.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005622","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144811194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Combined Meteorological and Hydrologic Uncertainties Shape Projections of Future Soil Moisture in the Eastern United States 综合气象和水文的不确定性塑造了美国东部未来土壤湿度的预测

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006040

David C. Lafferty, Danielle S. Grogan, Shan Zuidema, Iman Haqiqi, Atieh Alipour, Klaus Keller, Ryan L. Sriver

{"title":"Combined Meteorological and Hydrologic Uncertainties Shape Projections of Future Soil Moisture in the Eastern United States","authors":"David C. Lafferty, Danielle S. Grogan, Shan Zuidema, Iman Haqiqi, Atieh Alipour, Klaus Keller, Ryan L. Sriver","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006040","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006040","url":null,"abstract":"Physical hazards pose risks to many critical systems. Designing adaptive measures to mitigate these risks is challenging due to large uncertainties in modeling future hazards and the associated sectoral responses. Here, we help address this challenge in a hydrologic context by examining the combined role of meteorological forcing and hydrologic parameter uncertainties in shaping projections of future soil moisture. By encoding a simple conceptual water balance model in a differentiable programming framework, we facilitate fast runtimes and an efficient calibration, enabling an improved uncertainty analysis. We characterize uncertainty in model parameters by calibrating against different target data sets and by using several loss functions. We then convolve the resulting parameter ensemble with a set of Earth system model projections to produce a large ensemble (2,340 members) of daily soil moisture simulations. Focusing on the eastern United States, we find that most ensemble members project a drying of soils across the region, although some simulate wetter conditions throughout this century. Our ensemble shows an increase in the frequency and intensity of dry extremes while there is less agreement for wet extremes. We conduct sensitivity analyses on several soil moisture signatures to measure the relative influence of meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties across space and time. Both meteorological and hydrologic factors contribute consistently to uncertainty surrounding long-term trends, while changes to both wet and dry soil extremes are typically more sensitive to hydrologic parameter uncertainty. Our results underscore the need to account for varied sources of uncertainty when developing long-term hydrometeorological projections.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006040","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144811193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

El Niño Intensified Fog Formation in the Namib Desert El Niño纳米布沙漠强化雾的形成

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005725

Yue Li, Lixin Wang, Carlynn J. Diersing, Na Qiao, Yi Liu, Gillian Maggs-Kölling, Eugene Marais

{"title":"El Niño Intensified Fog Formation in the Namib Desert","authors":"Yue Li, Lixin Wang, Carlynn J. Diersing, Na Qiao, Yi Liu, Gillian Maggs-Kölling, Eugene Marais","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005725","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005725","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the importance of fog as a supplementary moisture source in many dryland ecosystems, little is known about the effects of global climate change and natural climate variability on fog regimes. Here, we examined the long-term (1966–2022) fog trend and the underlying drivers in the typical fog-dominated Namib Desert. A 9-year event-based fog isotope data set (2014–2022) from the Namib Desert was used to classify three different fog types with isotopically distinct moisture origins. We further examined the daily amount of three types of fog in El Niño and non-El Niño years and their influencing mechanisms. The results showed an overall reduction in fog water availability after 1996. A positive correlation was observed between the simple moving average (SMA) of the annual mean air temperature and the SMA of the annual fog amount from 1970 to 1996, followed by a negative correlation from 1996 to 2022. The 9-year event-based fog amount data set revealed an increase in fog formation in El Niño years. Furthermore, the unique fog isotope data set showed that the daily amounts of both ocean- and locally generated fog were intensified during the El Niño years over the past decade. We attributed the intensification of advection fog to more frequent and stronger northwesterly winds in El Niño years. Plant transpiration could provide a critical water source for intensifying locally generated fog in El Niño years. Our findings offer critical insights into the acclimation of organisms in fog-dependent and water-limited ecosystems under a warming climate.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005725","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144811196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Waning Greenhouse Gas Emissions From U.S. Federal Lease Coal Production by the Mid-21st Century 到21世纪中叶，美国联邦租赁煤炭生产的温室气体排放量正在减少

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-10 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005735

M. D. Merrill, P. E. Pierce, C. C. Meister, M. M. Jones, C. Ö. Karacan, A. M. Wiens, P. D. Warwick, B. N. Shaffer

{"title":"Waning Greenhouse Gas Emissions From U.S. Federal Lease Coal Production by the Mid-21st Century","authors":"M. D. Merrill, P. E. Pierce, C. C. Meister, M. M. Jones, C. Ö. Karacan, A. M. Wiens, P. D. Warwick, B. N. Shaffer","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005735","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005735","url":null,"abstract":"This study presents estimates of future years (2024–2051) United States Federal lease coal production and the resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the combustion, transport, and mining of that fuel. Results from the coal production estimate indicate a decline in production from Federal leases; with known production of 240 million short tons (mtn) in 2023 and a projected decline to 34.0 mtn by 2051, which represents a reduction to 14.2% of the 2023 value. In parallel with this projection, total GHG emissions are estimated to decrease from 402.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO2 eq.) in 2024 to 55.0 MMT CO2 eq. in 2051, a decline to 13.7% of 2024 emissions estimates. The reductions in coal production and emissions are mainly the result of planned coal combustion power plant closures, with major projected closures in 2037 and 2048. However, GHG emissions estimates for future years can be uncertain as they rely heavily on coal production estimates from operators' public business plans and other publicly available resources. Forward looking plans of this type are subject to significant changes if economic and political factors deviate from current information. Results suggest that average GHG emissions over the time series breakout to 95% end point combustion, 3.7% transportation combustion emissions, and 1.3% fugitive emissions, although there is uncertainty associated with these figures. Uncertainty stemming from production projections, sector distributions, and emissions factors on the future emissions estimates increases with time, ranging from −28% to +48% within the 2024–2051 timeframe.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005735","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144811171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How Climate Model Developers Deal With Bugs 气候模型开发者如何处理bug

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-09 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006318

Ulrike Proske, Lieke A. Melsen

{"title":"How Climate Model Developers Deal With Bugs","authors":"Ulrike Proske, Lieke A. Melsen","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006318","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006318","url":null,"abstract":"General circulation models (GCMs) are not only powerful tools to understand Earth's climate system and to forecast the weather. They are also large software programs written by humans. As such, they contain coding mistakes, so-called bugs. Researchers communicate results generated with GCMs and document new model versions, but seldom explicitly communicate the bugs they find in their models, let alone the practices surrounding them. This study portrays practices around bugs that were found during recent ICON development, and the workflow from getting a suspicion to fixing and communicating the bug. Eleven qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted with domain scientists and scientific programmers involved in ICON development. The interviews detail the workflow for dealing with bugs, highlighting that it is only partly standardized. For example, scientific testing is complicated by the fact that there is no absolute truth in terms of results that the model could be tested against. Thus testing resists standardization, so that dealing with bugs remains a laborious process. Being confronted and dealing with bugs, modelers aim for a model that is “good enough” rather than perfect. This stance is pragmatic and relaxes exuberant expectations for GCMs, especially considering their bugs. However, the goal of “good enough” is troubling with regard to GCMs' use as universal tools, with high societal stakes. Who decides that the model is “good enough,” and what for?","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006318","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145135370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Tale of Two Unprecedented Droughts in Southeast Asia: Physical Drivers and Impending Future Risks 东南亚两次空前干旱的故事：物理驱动因素和迫在眉睫的未来风险

IF 8.2 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF005971

Shuping Ma, Xiao Peng, Xinyue Liu, Zhongwang Wei, Zhixiao Niu, Wenpeng Zhao, Ming Pan, Xiaogang He

{"title":"A Tale of Two Unprecedented Droughts in Southeast Asia: Physical Drivers and Impending Future Risks","authors":"Shuping Ma, Xiao Peng, Xinyue Liu, Zhongwang Wei, Zhixiao Niu, Wenpeng Zhao, Ming Pan, Xiaogang He","doi":"10.1029/2025EF005971","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF005971","url":null,"abstract":"Conventional wisdom suggests that tropical droughts in Southeast Asia are closely linked to natural climate variability like El Niño. However, the extreme 2014 drought occurred independently of El Niño, suggesting other dynamic forcings at play. Here we use moisture budget analysis, moisture tracking, and physics-informed joint probability modeling to disentangle the interplay between dynamic and thermodynamic drivers behind this unprecedented drought and to assess future drought risks under climate change. We find that the 2014 drought primarily resulted from air subsidence due to anticyclone-driven mid-troposphere divergence, leading to significant precipitation deficits, which are further intensified by reduced marine moisture inflow from the West Pacific. Incorporating the dynamic and thermodynamic drivers into our bivariate probabilistic analysis, we find that the likelihood of 2014-like droughts will increase by 25% and 43% under stabilized and business as usual pathways, respectively, by mid-century (2030–2064). Such increases in drought risk are dominated by climate-change-induced changes in dynamic processes, particularly reduced mid-troposphere vertical motion, where thermodynamic processes and the dependence structure between the two play a less significant role. However, significant inter-model inconsistence in attributing the relative importance of these factors highlights the challenges of using current climate models for robust risk assessment.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF005971","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145135310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0