Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Soaring Building Collapses in Southern Mediterranean Coasts: Hydroclimatic Drivers & Adaptive Landscape Mitigations","authors":"Sara S. Fouad,&nbsp;Essam Heggy,&nbsp;Oula Amrouni,&nbsp;Abderraouf Hzami,&nbsp;Steffen Nijhuis,&nbsp;Nesma Mohamed,&nbsp;Ibrahim H. Saleh,&nbsp;Seifeddine Jomaa,&nbsp;Yasser Elsheshtawy,&nbsp;Udo Weilacher","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004883","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004883","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The low-lying, arid coastal regions of the Southern Mediterranean Basin, extending over 4,600 km, face daunting sea level rise and hydroclimatic changes due to shifting weather patterns. The impact of these factors on coastal urban buildings and infrastructure must be better understood. Alexandria, a historic and densely populated port city in Egypt representative of several coastal towns in the Southern Mediterranean, has experienced over 280 building collapses along its shorelines over the past two decades, and the root causes are still under investigation. We examine the decadal changes in coastal and hydroclimatic drivers along the city's coastline using photogrammetric satellite images from 1974 to 2021. We explore the interconnectivity between shoreline retreat, ground subsidence, and building collapses. Our results suggest that collapses are correlated with severe coastal erosion driven by sediment imbalances resulting from decades of inefficient landscape management and urban expansion along the city's waterfront. This severe erosion, combined with sea level rise, increases seawater intrusion, raising groundwater levels in coastal aquifers. Degrading ground stability and accelerating corrosion in building foundations ultimately culminating in collapses. We identified a coastal area of high vulnerability with over 7,000 buildings at risk, surpassing any other vulnerable zone in the Mediterranean Basin. We propose cost-effective and nature-based techniques for coastal landscape adaptation to alleviate these dangers in Alexandria and other Southern Mediterranean cities facing similar climatic challenges.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004883","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143396994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future Patterns of Compound Dry and Hot Summers and Their Link to Soil Moisture Droughts in Europe","authors":"Andrea Böhnisch,&nbsp;Elizaveta Felsche,&nbsp;Magdalena Mittermeier,&nbsp;Benjamin Poschlod,&nbsp;Ralf Ludwig","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004916","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004916","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Compound dry and hot extreme (CDHE) summers in Europe, like 2015, 2018 and 2022, have wide ranging impacts: heat exacerbates moisture shortages during dry periods whereas water demand rises. Current studies of CDHE are mostly conducted in observations or coarse-resolution global climate model large ensembles. While the latter allow for the assessment of rare CDHE against the backdrop of internal variability, global ensembles fail in providing robust climate change signals at impact-relevant scales. To overcome this issue, we exploit a regional 50-member single-model initial condition large ensemble (SMILE). The SMILE provides an extensive database of CDHE in a current climate and at two global warming levels (+2°C, +3°C) across Europe in high geographical detail. We identify Northern France, Southern Germany, Switzerland, Southern Ireland, and the western coasts of the Black Sea with currently low CDHE frequency as emerging hotspots. These regions experience a tenfold increase of CDHE under global warming conditions, in parts resulting in yet unseen heat and dryness. Temperature is the dominant driver of frequency increases, except for western Europe. Additionally, tail dependence strengthens in regions with large increases in CDHE frequency. In European agricultural areas, soil moisture shows stronger negative correlations with CDHE intensity than with precipitation or temperature. Finally, our results indicate <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>50</mn>\u0000 <mspace></mspace>\u0000 <mi>%</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $50hspace*{.5em}%$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> fewer CDHE summers in a +2°C world compared to a +3°C world, highlighting the importance of climate mitigation to reduce the frequency of these multi-hazard events.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004916","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143389094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterizing Compound Inland Flooding Mechanisms and Risks in North America Under Climate Change","authors":"Mohammad Fereshtehpour,&nbsp;Mohammad Reza Najafi,&nbsp;Alex J. Cannon","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005353","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005353","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Compound inland flooding (CIF) arises from the concurrent interaction of multiple hydrometeorological drivers. In this study, we characterize key CIF events across North America, including two preconditioned events, rain-on-snow (ROS) and saturation excess flooding (SEF) for historical baseline conditions and global warming levels of 1.5, 2, and 4°C relative to the preindustrial level. Utilizing the high emission climate scenario (RCP8.5) from CanRCM4-LE with 50 members, the frequency and seasonality of compound events, along with the probability of these events leading to heavy runoff, and the relative role of external forcing and internal climate variability are assessed. We convert the identified hazards into risk levels by integrating them with exposure and vulnerability components. The results suggest that as global temperatures increase, the overall role of ROS events in causing significant runoff is projected to decrease compared to individual heavy rainfall. Concurrently, the impact of SEF occurrences is projected to become more pronounced. The signal-to-noise ratio highlights a high-confidence change signal for CIF events; however, uncertainty related to internal climate variability in future projections of joint probability with heavy runoff is more pronounced. These results underscore the need to consider compound mechanisms, dynamics, and risks associated with CIFs within systematic approaches to flood risk management.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005353","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143396995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Accounting for Compound Flooding Can Prevent Maladaptation—A Baltic Sea Case Study","authors":"Sunna Kupfer,&nbsp;Athanasios T. Vafeidis,&nbsp;Leigh R. MacPherson","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005106","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Estuarine areas are currently at risk of compound flooding, the frequency and intensity of which is expected to increase with climate change. Even though efforts are made to adapt against single flood drivers using hard protection, potential subsequent changes in flood risk due to compound flooding are often overlooked in flood risk assessments. This is because risk assessments mostly focus on individual flood drivers and do not account for changes in risk from adaptation measures. We address this question and use hydrodynamic modeling to simulate compound flooding for two adaptation scenarios. We consider adaptation in terms of storm surge barriers, in two locations along the Trave estuary, namely Schlutup and Trave, at Lübeck, Germany. We assess the effectiveness of both storm surge barriers in reducing flooding by simulating individual-driver, as well as low- and high-magnitude compound flood scenarios. We find that while during low-magnitude compound flooding both barriers reduce the overall flood extent by 25%–86%, high-magnitude compound flooding leads to an increase of up to 100%, depending on the location of the barrier. Our results suggest that the river contribution is amplified by 52%–100% by the Schlutup Barrier. The Trave Barrier, however, only amplifies flood extents in the high-magnitude compound flood scenarios. Our findings highlight the need to consider compound flooding in adaptation planning to avoid defense failure and unexpected increases in risk. However, as this study considers only two (low probability) extreme events, a more comprehensive approach is necessary to fully understand the overall impact on risk.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005106","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143389093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding Europe's Forest Harvesting Regimes","authors":"Susanne Suvanto,&nbsp;Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert,&nbsp;Mart-Jan Schelhaas,&nbsp;Julen Astigarraga,&nbsp;Rasmus Astrup,&nbsp;Emil Cienciala,&nbsp;Jonas Fridman,&nbsp;Helena M. Henttonen,&nbsp;Georges Kunstler,&nbsp;Gerald Kändler,&nbsp;Louis A. König,&nbsp;Paloma Ruiz-Benito,&nbsp;Cornelius Senf,&nbsp;Golo Stadelmann,&nbsp;Ajdin Starcevic,&nbsp;Andrzej Talarczyk,&nbsp;Miguel A. Zavala,&nbsp;Thomas A. M. Pugh","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005225","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005225","url":null,"abstract":"<p>European forests are being shaped by active human use and management, and by harvesting of wood in particular. Yet, our understanding of how forests are harvested across Europe is limited, as the real harvest regimes are not well described by currently available data. Here, we analyse recent harvests, as observed in permanent plots of forest inventories in 11 European countries, totaling to 182,649 plots and covering all major forest types. We (a) characterize harvest regimes through the frequency and intensity of harvest events spatially across Europe, and (b) build models for the probability and intensity of harvest events at the plot-level and examine the links to potential drivers of harvest, including the pre-harvest forest structure and composition, climatic, topographic and socio-economic factors, and past natural disturbances. The results revealed notable variation in harvest regimes across Europe, ranging from high-frequency and low-intensity harvests in eastern Central Europe to low-frequency and high-intensity harvests in the north, with different strategies emerging in regions with similar total harvest rates. The harvest regimes were strongly driven by country-level variation, emphasizing the role of national-level factors. Pre-harvest forest properties were important drivers for the intensity of harvest, whereas the probability of harvest was more related to socio-economic factors and natural disturbances. The presented quantification of the forest harvesting regimes provides much needed detail in our understanding of the contemporary forest management practices in Europe, providing a baseline against which to assess future changes in management and strengthening the knowledge-base for decision-making on European level.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005225","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143370066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Empirical Models of Shallow Groundwater and Multi-Hazard Flood Forecasts as Sea-Levels Rise","authors":"Simon C. Cox,&nbsp;Marc H. J. Ettema,&nbsp;Lee A. Chambers,&nbsp;Scott A. Stephens,&nbsp;Gregory E. Bodeker,&nbsp;Quyen Nguyen,&nbsp;Ivan Diaz-Rainey,&nbsp;Antoni B. Moore","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004977","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004977","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Knowledge of coastal hydrogeology and hazards as groundwater responds to sea-level rise (SLR) can be improved through installation of shallow groundwater monitoring piezometers and continuous observations. Interpolation of site data enables mapping of the present-day state of groundwater elevation, depth to groundwater (DTW), their temporal statistical variation, and differing spatial responses to tides and rainfall. Future DTW and its variability can be projected under increments of SLR, with assumptions and caveats, to show where and when episodic and/or permanent inundation can be expected. This methodology is outlined in a case study of Dunedin, New Zealand, which enabled comparison of rising groundwater's contribution to pluvial flooding and groundwater emergence with coastal inundation. Changes in relative land exposure with SLR shows evolution in flood hazard from current pluvial-dominated events, into “flooding from below” and groundwater emergence, in advance of any overland coastal inundation. Dunedin exemplifies how groundwater transfers effects of SLR surprisingly far inland, but the lowest-lying or shoreline-proximal suburbs are not necessarily the most vulnerable. Unlike coastal inundation, rising groundwater is unconstrained by protective topography and presents as a creeping hazard, or contributor to hazards such as pluvial flooding, which can be widespread, occurring already and difficult to defend against. The empirical models contain assumptions and uncertainties important to the veracity of results and application. While conservative (“risk averse”) and a compromise from computationally expensive numerical solutions, their value is in providing the spatial and temporal precision needed for multi-source hazard assessment and holistic adaptive planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004977","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143370065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Maize Yield Changes Under Sulfate Aerosol Climate Intervention Using Three Global Gridded Crop Models","authors":"Brendan Clark,&nbsp;Alan Robock,&nbsp;Lili Xia,&nbsp;Sam S. Rabin,&nbsp;Jose R. Guarin,&nbsp;Gerrit Hoogenboom,&nbsp;Jonas Jägermeyr","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005269","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005269","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As the severity of climate change and its associated impacts continue to worsen, schemes for artificially cooling surface temperatures via planetary albedo modification are being studied. The method with the most attention in the literature is stratospheric sulfate aerosol intervention (SAI). Placing reflective aerosols in the stratosphere would have profound impacts on the entire Earth system, with potentially far-reaching societal impacts. How global crop productivity would be affected by such an intervention strategy is still uncertain, and existing evidence is based on theoretical experiments or isolated modeling studies that use crop models missing key processes associated with SAI that affect plant growth, development, and ultimately yield. Here, we utilize three global gridded process-based crop models to better understand the potential impacts of one SAI scenario on global maize productivity. Two of the crop models that simulate diffuse radiation fertilization show similar, yet small increases in global maize productivity from increased diffuse radiation. Three crop models show diverse responses to the same climate perturbation from SAI relative to the reference future climate change scenario. We find that future SAI implementation relative to a climate change scenario benefits global maize productivity ranging between 0% and 11% depending on the crop model. These production increases are attributed to reduced surface temperatures and higher fractions of diffuse radiation. The range across model outcomes highlights the need for more systematic multi-model ensemble assessments using multiple climate model forcings under different SAI scenarios.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005269","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143362481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hotspots of Global Water Resource Changes and Their Causes","authors":"Jiaxin Lu,&nbsp;Dongdong Kong,&nbsp;Yongqiang Zhang,&nbsp;Yuxuan Xie,&nbsp;Xihui Gu,&nbsp;Aminjon Gulakhmadov","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005461","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In recent decades, terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) has experienced systematic shifts. Despite these observations, debates continue regarding the hotspots where terrestrial water storage changes dramatically and their causes. This study aims to address these controversies. Utilizing four TWSA products, this research analyzes TWSA's changing patterns and identifies hotspots of significant shifts from 1982 to 2019. The study employed the Bayesian Three-Cornered Hat method to synthesize the best-quality TWSA from original four TWSA products and the trends consistent method to identify regions with highly consistent trends. Subsequently, the elasticity coefficient method was used to reveal the causes of TWSA's dramatic changes in hotspots. Results show that TWSA has a declining trend over 66.1% global terrestrial areas during 1982–2019, with an average rate of −0.5 mm/y. The study identified six regions where marked changes in TWSA occurred, including Northern China, Southern Canada, Northern India, Central-Southern Europe, Southwestern Africa, and Northeastern South America. Attribution analysis reveals that the leaf area index is the predominant factor affecting TWSA changes, dominating in 40.3% of global regions. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) follows closely, dominating in 39.8% of global regions. Meanwhile, only 13.1% and 6.8% of global regions are primarily influenced by precipitation and cropland density respectively. The dominant factor varies in different latitudes. Vegetation greening primarily controls TWSA changes in the high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. This study identified hotspots of TWSA changes and investigated the causes of these variations. Those results will offer direction for prioritizing areas in future water resource management.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005461","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143248520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Warmer Climate Reduces the Carbon Storage, Stability and Saturation Levels in Forest Soils","authors":"Yuntao Wu,&nbsp;Ziyang Peng,&nbsp;Xin Wang,&nbsp;Junsheng Huang,&nbsp;Lu Yang,&nbsp;Lingli Liu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004988","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004988","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Forest soils store about one-fifth of the global terrestrial biosphere carbon stock. However, our understanding of how soil geochemical, plant and microbial factors regulate forest soil organic carbon (SOC) storage, stability, and saturation levels remains limited. Here, we conducted a sampling campaign across a 5000-km natural forest transect in China, measuring climate, geochemical factors and SOC fractions with varying stability. Additionally, we compiled a global data set of SOC fractions in major forest biomes. Our field survey and global synthesis consistently demonstrate that warmer climates not only reduce the content of labile particle organic matter (POM), but also decrease the typically stable mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM), leading to a significant decline in total soil carbon storage. Additionally, warmer climates promote the crystallization of Fe/Al oxides, which decreases the formation efficiency of Fe/Al oxide associated organic complexes. Consequently, the mineralogical carbon saturation level declines from boreal forests (37%) to tropical forests (25%). Our findings underscore that, beyond the well-established climate impacts, soil geochemical properties play a pivotal role in shaping forest SOC composition and saturation levels across latitudes. This highlights that colder regions harbor larger and more stable carbon pools, and that ongoing climate warming and associated soil geochemical properties shift could potentially lead to a decline in soil carbon storage and its capacity to mitigate climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004988","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143121026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Short-Term Memory and Regional Climate Drive City-Scale Water Demand in the Contiguous US","authors":"Wenjin Hao,&nbsp;Andrea Cominola,&nbsp;Andrea Castelletti","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004415","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004415","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Gaining insights into current and future urban water demand patterns and their determinants is paramount for water utilities and policymakers to formulate water demand management strategies targeted to high water-using groups and infrastructure planning strategies. In this paper, we explore the complex web of causality between climatic and socio-demographic determinants, and urban water demand patterns across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We develop a causal discovery framework based on a Neural Granger Causal (NGC) model, a machine learning approach that identifies nonlinear causal relationships between determinants and water demand, enabling comprehensive water demand determinants discovery and water demand forecasting across the CONUS. We train our convolutional NGC model using large-scale open water demand data collected with a monthly resolution from 2010 to 2017 for 86 cities across the CONUS and three Köppen climate regions—Arid, Temperate, and Continental—utilizing this globally recognized climate classification system to ensure a robust analysis across varied environmental conditions. We discover that city-scale urban water demand is primarily driven by short-term memory effects. Climatic variables, particularly vapor pressure deficit and temperature, also stand out as primary determinants across all regions, and more evidently in Arid regions as they capture aridity and drought conditions. Our model achieves an average <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mi>R</mi>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${R}^{2}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> higher than 0.8 for one-month-ahead prediction of water demand across various cities, leveraging the Granger causal relationships in different spatial contexts. Finally, the exploration of temporal dynamics among determinants and water demand amplifies the interpretability of the model results. This enhanced interpretability facilitates discovery of urban water demand determinants and generalization of water demand forecasting.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004415","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143120019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}