Earths Future最新文献_第7页

Road-Level Charging Gaps and Infrastructure Enhancements in Japan's Electric Vehicle Transition 日本电动汽车转型中的道路充电缺口和基础设施改善

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005559

Xiaoyan Xu, Yoshikuni Yoshida, Jiawei Yong, Shintaro Fukushima, Renhe Jiang, Yin Long

{"title":"Road-Level Charging Gaps and Infrastructure Enhancements in Japan's Electric Vehicle Transition","authors":"Xiaoyan Xu, Yoshikuni Yoshida, Jiawei Yong, Shintaro Fukushima, Renhe Jiang, Yin Long","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005559","url":null,"abstract":"The global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is accelerating, yet inadequate charging infrastructure continues to impede adoption in certain regions. Japan, despite its early leadership in EV promotion and extensive patent portfolio, has been notably slow in transitioning, with charging accessibility emerging as a potential constraint. To address this challenge, we conduct a spatial evaluation of EV charger accessibility and assess strategies for optimizing network accessibility. Using data from 5,585 EV charging stations and road congestion patterns across the Tokyo metropolitan area, we developed a road-level Charging Insufficiency Index to quantify accessibility gaps. Our results show that over 60% of roads in selected cities may face insufficient charging infrastructure, potentially posing barriers to EV adoption. Among the alleviation measures, expanding the rapid charging network achieves the greatest reduction in charging insufficiency, decreasing the total length of roads with above-average charging insufficiency by approximately 904.10 km across 51% of cities during rush hour. This study offers a framework for guiding targeted infrastructure expansion and policy interventions, providing insights that can inform EV adoption strategies in Japan and other regions facing similar challenges.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005559","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144091773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Digital Transformation in Agricultural Supply Chains Enhances Green Productivity: Evidence From Provincial Data in China 农业供应链数字化转型提高绿色生产力：来自中国省级数据的证据

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006089

Haiyan Yu, Wuniu Qubi, Juan Luo

引用次数: 0

Global Warming Will Increase the Risk of Water Shortage in Northwest China 全球变暖将加大西北地区缺水风险

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006199

Chang Lu, Qiang Zhang, R. Iestyn Woolway, Long Ma, Tingxi Liu, Gang Wang, Deliang Sun, Vijay P. Singh, Yungang Bai, Bolin Sun, Xing Huang

{"title":"Global Warming Will Increase the Risk of Water Shortage in Northwest China","authors":"Chang Lu, Qiang Zhang, R. Iestyn Woolway, Long Ma, Tingxi Liu, Gang Wang, Deliang Sun, Vijay P. Singh, Yungang Bai, Bolin Sun, Xing Huang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006199","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006199","url":null,"abstract":"Drylands with fragile ecosystems and severe water shortages are particularly vulnerable to climatic change. Northwestern China (NWC), a typical arid region, faces uncertainty regarding future wetting or drying trends. A comprehensive assessment and projection of these conditions are crucial for water resource management. In this study, we employ a Lagrangian trajectory model, optimal fingerprint analysis, and a maximum covariance technique to evaluate wetting and/or drying trends in NWC over the historical (1981–2023) and future (2024–2099) periods. Our results show that over 80% of NWC experienced increases in air temperature, precipitation, and evaporation during the historical period. External and internal water vapor sources contribute 92% and 8%, respectively, to precipitation changes. Incoming water vapor predominantly originated from the North Atlantic (31.9%) and the South China Sea - Bay of Bengal region (39.3%), with a strong positive correlation (r = 0.71) between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and precipitation minus evaporation in NWC. Water vapor enters NWC from the southern, northern, and western boundaries, while 83.4% escapes through the eastern boundary. The precipitation trend is strongly influenced by the combined effects of anthropogenic and natural forcings, accounting for 36.8% to the observed increase. Under a 1.5°C warming scenario, warming-wetting regions shift northward, whereas higher warming levels (2°C, 3°C, 4°C) cause these regions to shift southeastward and shrink. Our findings underscore NWC's high sensitivity to climate warming and highlight the pressing challenge of water security in a warming world.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006199","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144085399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Advancing the Reliability of Future Hydrological Projections in a Snow-Dominated Alpine Watershed: Integrating Uncertainty Decomposition and CycleGAN Bias Correction 推进积雪主导的高山流域未来水文预测的可靠性：整合不确定性分解和CycleGAN偏差校正

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005615

Tao Su, Zhu Liu, Qingyun Duan, Xinwei Mao, Weidong Xu

{"title":"Advancing the Reliability of Future Hydrological Projections in a Snow-Dominated Alpine Watershed: Integrating Uncertainty Decomposition and CycleGAN Bias Correction","authors":"Tao Su, Zhu Liu, Qingyun Duan, Xinwei Mao, Weidong Xu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005615","url":null,"abstract":"Given the sensitivity of snow to climate change and its critical role in the hydrological cycle of alpine regions, it is essential to reduce biases in meteorological forces for driving hydrological models. This study, taking the Manas River Basin (MRB) in Xinjiang China as the test bed, aims to quantify the uncertainties in hydrometeorological variables from the 24 NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) simulations and further reduce these biases using a Cycle-Consistent Generative Adversarial Network (CycleGAN). The bias-corrected CMIP6 data are then used to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model calibrated with both runoff and snow water equivalent (SWE) through a dual-objective approach for future projections. The results indicate that: (a) Model uncertainty brought by different climate models is the primary source of uncertainty in the original CMIP6 outputs. CycleGAN demonstrates substantial effectiveness in reducing model uncertainty; (b) Most subbasins of the MRB will experience absolute SWE reduction in the future, with changes varying significantly across elevation bands, decreasing to 30%–60% of baseline levels by the end of the century; (c) The runoff in the MRB has an increasing trend in the future, with projected increases ranging from 1.34% under SSP126 to 24.56% under SSP585. As the rain-to-snow ratio rises and snowmelt shifts earlier, low flows will increase during the dry period, elevating spring flood risks. These findings provide crucial insights for future management of water resources in snow-dominated watersheds.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005615","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144085412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Soil Drying Intensification Increases the Connection Between Dry and Hot Extremes in a Changing Climate 土壤干燥加剧增加了气候变化中极端干旱和极端炎热之间的联系

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005151

Yamin Qing, Shuo Wang

引用次数: 0

Decarbonization Investment Strategies in an Uncertain Climate 不确定环境下的脱碳投资策略

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005851

Adam Michael Bauer, Florent McIsaac, Stéphane Hallegatte

{"title":"Decarbonization Investment Strategies in an Uncertain Climate","authors":"Adam Michael Bauer, Florent McIsaac, Stéphane Hallegatte","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005851","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005851","url":null,"abstract":"The Paris Agreement established that global warming should be limited to “well below” 2 <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>°</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${}^{circ}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>C and encouraged efforts to limit warming to 1.5 <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>°</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${}^{circ}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>C. Achieving this goal presents a challenge, especially given (a) adjustment costs, which penalize a swift transition away from fossil fuels owing to, for example, skilled labor scarcity, and (b) climate uncertainty that complicates the link between emissions reductions and global warming. This paper presents a modeling framework that explores optimal decarbonization investment strategies with adjustment costs and climate uncertainty. The findings show that climate uncertainty impacts investment in three ways: (a) the cost of policy increases, especially when adjustment costs are present; (b) abatement investment is front-loaded relative to a scenario without uncertainty; and (c) the sectors with the largest changes in investment are those that are “hard-to-abate”, such as heavy industry and agriculture, each of which have high investment costs and annual emission rates. The longer learning about climate uncertainty is delayed, the more these impacts are amplified. Each of these effects can be traced back to the carbon price distribution inheriting a “heavy tail” when climate uncertainty is present. The paper highlights how climate uncertainty and adjustment costs combined lead to heightened urgency for near-term investments in decarbonization.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005851","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144074281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ground-Truth: Can Forest Carbon Protocols Ensure High-Quality Credits? 真相：森林碳协议能保证高质量的碳信用吗？

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005414

R. Sanders-DeMott, L. R. Hutyra, M. D. Hurteau, W. S. Keeton, K. S. Fallon, W. R. L. Anderegg, D. Y. Hollinger, S. E. Kuebbing, M. S. Lucash, E. M. Ordway, R. Vargas, W. S. Walker

{"title":"Ground-Truth: Can Forest Carbon Protocols Ensure High-Quality Credits?","authors":"R. Sanders-DeMott, L. R. Hutyra, M. D. Hurteau, W. S. Keeton, K. S. Fallon, W. R. L. Anderegg, D. Y. Hollinger, S. E. Kuebbing, M. S. Lucash, E. M. Ordway, R. Vargas, W. S. Walker","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005414","url":null,"abstract":"Forests have substantial potential to help mitigate climate change. Private finance channeled through carbon credits is one way to fund that mitigation, but market-based approaches to forest carbon projects have been fraught to date. Public skepticism of forest carbon markets signals a need to closely scrutinize the system for certifying carbon credits. We rigorously reviewed and scored new and existing protocols for the voluntary and North American compliance carbon markets. We included protocols for forest projects engaging in improved forest management, afforestation/reforestation, and avoided planned forest conversion. Most protocols score poorly overall, and none were assessed as robust. Only one new protocol that had yet to issue credits at the time of our evaluation was assessed as satisfactory, owing to improvements in the approach to additionality demonstration. We conclude that existing protocols do not ensure carbon credits are consistently real, high-quality, and accurately represent 1 tonne of avoided, reduced, or removed emissions. We offer recommendations for how protocols can be strengthened using existing data and new tools to promote reliably high-quality credits. Continuing to rely on the status quo without such investments is a serious risk to climate change mitigation, and in our estimation, these proposed improvements would increase the likelihood that forests carbon projects can deliver their promised climate mitigation benefits.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005414","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143950294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Spatial Baseline of China's Blue Carbon Stocks for Improved Monitoring, Management, and Protection 基于监测、管理和保护的中国蓝碳储量空间基线

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005380

Shaobo Sun, Zhaoliang Song, Laodong Guo, Carlos M. Duarte, Peter I. Macreadie, Zhen Zhang, Yunying Fang, Baozhang Chen, Zhengang Wang, Weiqi Wang, Yidong Wang, Dongjie Fu, Yuan Li, Yafei Wang, Hailong Wang, Cong-Qiang Liu

{"title":"A Spatial Baseline of China's Blue Carbon Stocks for Improved Monitoring, Management, and Protection","authors":"Shaobo Sun, Zhaoliang Song, Laodong Guo, Carlos M. Duarte, Peter I. Macreadie, Zhen Zhang, Yunying Fang, Baozhang Chen, Zhengang Wang, Weiqi Wang, Yidong Wang, Dongjie Fu, Yuan Li, Yafei Wang, Hailong Wang, Cong-Qiang Liu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005380","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005380","url":null,"abstract":"Blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs) exhibit remarkable capacities for organic carbon (C) storage, making them a promising nature-based climate solution. However, the lack of robust, spatially explicit estimates of C stocks in BCEs presents a major challenge to incorporating them into national and global C accounting and climate mitigation strategies. For the first time, we develop spatially explicit estimates of both soil and living biomass C stocks in BCEs across China by integrating open-access remote sensing, climate, and soil property data with 2,899 site measurements using a data-driven method. Our C stock estimates reveal that mean C stocks in BCEs significantly decrease with increasing latitude. We estimate the total C storage within China's BCEs at 121.1 ± 48.4 Tg C, with soil accounting for 90% of the total C storage. Tidal marshes and flats contribute a total of 64.7 ± 8.7 Tg C, while mangroves store a much smaller amount (4.4 ± 1.4 Tg C) due to their limited spatial extent. Seagrasses store a total of 52.0 ± 38.3 Tg C, which is significantly larger than previous estimates. These findings underscore the significant potential of BCEs protection and restoration for China's climate mitigation efforts. Our spatially explicit C stock estimates for China's BCEs provide essential data for national and global C accounting and can serve as baselines for quantifying the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on BCEs C stocks. Additionally, this study offers a practical framework for comprehensively assessing C stocks in BCEs at the national scale.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005380","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144074434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Model Study Exploring the Decision Loop Between Unilateral Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenario Design and Earth System Simulations

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005455

Chenrui Diao, Patrick W. Keys, Curtis M. Bell, Elizabeth A. Barnes, James W. Hurrell

{"title":"A Model Study Exploring the Decision Loop Between Unilateral Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenario Design and Earth System Simulations","authors":"Chenrui Diao, Patrick W. Keys, Curtis M. Bell, Elizabeth A. Barnes, James W. Hurrell","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005455","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005455","url":null,"abstract":"Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being discussed as a possible approach to reduce future global warming in addition to emission cuts, and numerous scenarios and Earth system model (ESM) experiments have been developed to explore its effectiveness and risks. Given the complex geopolitical, economic, and strategic considerations among countries, global cooperation in SAI deployment will be challenging. Unilateral SAI deployment has thus been highlighted as an important research topic, although it has been explored very little in scenario design and ESM studies. Inspired by a novel game theory model and a newly developed framework for identifying geopolitically plausible SAI initiator(s), this paper builds a framework for integrating unilateral SAI scenario design, geopolitical game theory, ESM simulation, and climate analyses into a single decision loop. We design and simulate a geopolitically plausible scenario of the initiation of unilateral SAI using the Community Earth System Model, and explore two independent plausible unilateral SAI reaction scenarios following the climate storylines under the initiator scenario. Our work demonstrates an approach to explore the complex feedbacks between unilateral SAI deployment scenarios and the simulation of the subsequent climate storylines.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005455","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Escalating Hydrological Extremes and Whiplashes in the Western U.S.: Challenges for Water Management and Frontline Communities

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005447

Wenzhao Li, Surendra Maharjan, Joshua B. Fisher, Thomas Piechota, Hesham El-Askary

{"title":"Escalating Hydrological Extremes and Whiplashes in the Western U.S.: Challenges for Water Management and Frontline Communities","authors":"Wenzhao Li, Surendra Maharjan, Joshua B. Fisher, Thomas Piechota, Hesham El-Askary","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005447","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005447","url":null,"abstract":"The Western U.S. is experiencing significant changes in its hydrological dynamics, marked by increased variability and rapid “whiplash” shifts between extreme drought and flood conditions. This study quantified these changes using a customized hydrological water year index, which correlated better with surface water storage in the basins than other drought/wetness indicators. Application of the index revealed heightened hydrological extremes and whiplash events post-2015 in all Western U.S. basins, with nearly 72% of stations facing critically dry conditions in 2021 and over 54% experiencing extreme wet conditions in 2023. Future projections indicate a decline of 8.5%–13.2% in non-extreme water year types across major basins, accompanied by increases in both extreme wet and dry water year types. Our findings suggest that similar levels of multi-year drought duration and water deficits will likely occur regardless of future warming scenarios. This trend significantly impacts agriculture, the environment, and urban water use sectors. Notably, vulnerable frontline communities with higher risks and lower resilience experience disproportionate impacts from droughts compared to other communities.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005447","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0