Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Nutrient Loading From a Sustainably Certified Aquaculture Operation Dwarfs Annual Nutrient Inputs From a Large Multi-Use Watershed, Lake Yojoa, Honduras","authors":"J. M. Fadum,&nbsp;M. R. V. Ross,&nbsp;E. A. Tenorio,&nbsp;C. A. Barby,&nbsp;E. K. Hall","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004807","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004807","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Net-pen aquaculture is a popular and increasingly prevalent method for producing large quantities of low-fat protein in freshwater ecosystems across the tropics. While there are numerable social and economic advantages associated with aquaculture, there are also challenges related to the environmental sustainability of aquaculture operations which supply pens with externally produced feed. For example, excessive nutrient loading, which can drive rapid eutrophication in aquatic ecosystems, is a major risk. In this study, we compare the estimated annual nutrient loads from the six principal tributaries that contribute to Lake Yojoa to the estimated nutrient load of a large net-pen Tilapia operation located in the central region of the lake. The Tilapia farm was responsible for ∼86% of the nitrogen (N) and ∼95% of the phosphorus (P) contributions to Lake Yojoa for the year of our study. This excessive nutrient loading of both N and P suggests that this single aquaculture operation, more so than changes in nutrient inputs from the watershed, was responsible for the previously documented deterioration of Lake Yojoa. This study shows the potential for net-pen aquaculture to have significant negative impacts on freshwater ecosystems, even when operations meet the current sustainability certifications standards. We suggest shifts in metrics that could improve the impact of the certification process so that best practices can reduce the impact of net-pen aquaculture on freshwater ecosystems and arrive at the intended goal of long-term environmental sustainability. <i>La versión en español de esta publicación se encuentra disponible en los materiales suplementarios</i>.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004807","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143554851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial Heterogeneity of Plant-Level CCUS Investment Decisions in China's Cement Industry Under Various Policy Incentives","authors":"Yifan Mao,&nbsp;Kai Li,&nbsp;Jizhe Li,&nbsp;Xian Zhang,&nbsp;Jing-Li Fan","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004951","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004951","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) is widely regarded as a critical technology for achieving deep decarbonization in the cement industry. However, limited research has focused on its plant-level CCUS investment decisions, especially considering geographic heterogeneity based on the national source-sink matching optimization. This study develops an integrated framework that combines source-sink matching with a real option model to investigate CCUS investment decisions under various incentive policies. The findings show that the critical carbon price varies significantly across regions in China, ranging from 55 to 950 CNY/<i>t</i>, with 297 (46% of retrofittable cement plants) falling between 600 and 800 CNY/<i>t</i>. Northeast China, benefiting from favorable storage conditions and enhanced oil recovery, exhibits a lower average critical carbon price of 104 CNY/<i>t</i>. In contrast, Central China, despite its substantial CO₂ storage amount (18% of the national total), encounters a higher average critical carbon price of 564 CNY/<i>t</i> CO₂ due to significant source-sink matching distances. Notably, the offshore saline aquifer storage in the Southeastern coast could account for 17% of the national total, corresponding to an average critical carbon price of 660 CNY/t. Furthermore, implementing different policy incentives can enhance the immediate adoption of CCUS from 93 to 294 (13% to 46% of retrofittable cement plants).</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004951","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143554752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploratory Scoping of Place-Based Opportunities for Convergence Research","authors":"Casey Helgeson,&nbsp;Lisa Auermuller,&nbsp;DeeDee Bennett Gayle,&nbsp;Sönke Dangendorf,&nbsp;Elisabeth A. Gilmore,&nbsp;Klaus Keller,&nbsp;Robert E. Kopp,&nbsp;Jorge Lorenzo-Trueba,&nbsp;Michael Oppenheimer,&nbsp;Kathleen Parrish,&nbsp;Victoria Ramenzoni,&nbsp;Nancy Tuana,&nbsp;Thomas Wahl","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004908","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004908","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Harnessing scientific research to address societal challenges requires careful alignment of expertise, resources, and research questions with real-world needs, timelines, and constraints. In the case of place-based research, studies can avoid misalignment when grounded in the realities of specific locations and conducted in collaboration with knowledgeable local partners. But literature on best practices for such research is underdeveloped on how to identify appropriate locations and partners. In practice, these research-design choices are sometimes made based on convenience or prior experience—a strategy labeled opportunism. Here we examine a deliberative and exploratory approach in contrast to default opportunism. We introduce a general framework for scoping place-based opportunities for research and engagement. We apply the framework to identify climate-adaptation planning decisions, rooted in specific communities, around which to organize research and engagement in a large project addressing coastal climate risks in the Northeast US. The framework asks project personnel to negotiate explicit project goals, identify corresponding evaluation criteria, and assess opportunities against criteria within an iterative cycle of listening to needs, assessing options, prioritizing actions, and refining goals. In the application, we elicit a broad range of objectives from project personnel. We find that a structured process offers opportunities to collaboratively operationalize notions of equity and justice. We find some objectives in tension—including equity objectives—indicating trade-offs that other projects may also need to navigate. We reflect on challenges encountered in the application and on near-term costs and benefits of the exploratory process.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004908","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143555064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global and Regional Marine Ecosystem Models Reveal Key Uncertainties in Climate Change Projections","authors":"Tyler D. Eddy,&nbsp;Ryan F. Heneghan,&nbsp;Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz,&nbsp;Elizabeth A. Fulton,&nbsp;Cheryl S. Harrison,&nbsp;Derek P. Tittensor,&nbsp;Heike K. Lotze,&nbsp;Kelly Ortega-Cisneros,&nbsp;Camilla Novaglio,&nbsp;Daniele Bianchi,&nbsp;Matthias Büchner,&nbsp;Catherine Bulman,&nbsp;William W. L. Cheung,&nbsp;Villy Christensen,&nbsp;Marta Coll,&nbsp;Jason D. Everett,&nbsp;Denisse Fierro-Arcos,&nbsp;Eric D. Galbraith,&nbsp;Didier Gascuel,&nbsp;Jerome Guiet,&nbsp;Steve Mackinson,&nbsp;Olivier Maury,&nbsp;Susa Niiranen,&nbsp;Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos,&nbsp;Juliano Palacios-Abrantes,&nbsp;Chiara Piroddi,&nbsp;Hubert du Pontavice,&nbsp;Jonathan Reum,&nbsp;Anthony J. Richardson,&nbsp;Jacob Schewe,&nbsp;Lynne Shannon,&nbsp;Yunne-Jai Shin,&nbsp;Jeroen Steenbeek,&nbsp;Jan Volkholz,&nbsp;Nicola D. Walker,&nbsp;Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats,&nbsp;Julia L. Blanchard","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005537","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005537","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is affecting ocean temperature, acidity, currents, and primary production, causing shifts in species distributions, marine ecosystems, and ultimately fisheries. Earth system models simulate climate change impacts on physical and biogeochemical properties of future oceans under varying emissions scenarios. Coupling these simulations with an ensemble of global marine ecosystem models has indicated broad decreases of fish biomass with warming. However, regional details of these impacts remain much more uncertain. Here, we employ CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate change impact projections using two Earth system models coupled with four regional and nine global marine ecosystem models in 10 ocean regions to evaluate model agreement at regional scales. We find that models developed at different scales can lead to stark differences in biomass projections. On average, global models projected greater biomass declines by the end of the 21st century than regional models. For both global and regional models, greater biomass declines were projected using CMIP6 than CMIP5 simulations. Global models projected biomass declines in 86% of CMIP5 simulations for ocean regions compared to 50% for regional models in the same ocean regions. In CMIP6 simulations, all global model simulations projected biomass declines in ocean regions by 2100, while regional models projected biomass declines in 67% of the ocean region simulations. Our analysis suggests that improved understanding of the causes of differences between global and regional marine ecosystem model climate change projections is needed, alongside observational evaluation of modeled responses.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005537","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate Change Impacts on Flood Pulse Characteristics in the Barotse Floodplain, Zambia","authors":"E. J. Mroz,&nbsp;M. W. Smith,&nbsp;T. D. M. Willis,&nbsp;M. A. Trigg,&nbsp;H. Malawo,&nbsp;C. Chalo,&nbsp;M. Sinkombo,&nbsp;C. J. Thomas","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005471","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005471","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tens of millions of livelihoods depend on floodplains, making them especially vulnerable to climate change. However, understanding how annual floods may change and impact local vulnerabilities remains limited. Daily precipitation and temperature projections were obtained from five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) General Circulation Models in the Inter-Sectoral Model Inter-Comparison Project (ISIMIP). These were input into a coupled hydrological-hydraulic model of the Barotse Floodplain, Zambia to obtain data on flood pulse timing, duration, and magnitude. Future decades (2030s, 2050s, 2070s) under three Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs 1–2.6, 3–7.0, 5–8.5) were compared with baseline data from the 1990s and 2000s to assess the impact of climate change. Climatic indices were also correlated with flood pulse characteristics to assess whether a driver of changes could be determined. Future floodwaves in the Barotse showed reduced durations and magnitudes, and altered timings of flood rise and recession compared to baseline periods. These differences were significant in the mid-to far-future. Large areas of the floodplain experience 1-to-2 month reductions in inundation duration, and some areas experienced no inundation in a hydrological year for the first time. The northern Barotse Floodplain, western escarpment, and Luena Valley exhibit the greatest sensitivity to future changes. The Barotse Floodplain will become increasingly arid under all climate scenarios, exacerbating existing challenges for transhumance communities dependent on floods, who face periodic food insecurity, malnutrition, and limited healthcare access. Intensified drought conditions under future climate change will undermine the resilience of local livelihoods, reflecting broader vulnerabilities faced by floodplain-dependent communities globally.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005471","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prioritization of Research on Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate","authors":"Joel Lisonbee,&nbsp;Britt Parker,&nbsp;Erica Fleishman,&nbsp;Trent W. Ford,&nbsp;R. Kyle Bocinsky,&nbsp;Gretel Follingstad,&nbsp;Abby G. Frazier,&nbsp;Zachary H. Hoylman,&nbsp;Amy R. Hudson,&nbsp;John W. Nielsen-Gammon,&nbsp;Natalie A. Umphlett,&nbsp;Elliot Wickham,&nbsp;Aparna Bamzai-Dodson,&nbsp;Royce Fontenot,&nbsp;Brian Fuchs,&nbsp;John Hammond,&nbsp;Jeffrey E. Herrick,&nbsp;Mike Hobbins,&nbsp;Andrew Hoell,&nbsp;Jacob Jones,&nbsp;Erin Lane,&nbsp;Zachary Leasor,&nbsp;Yongqiang Liu,&nbsp;Jason A. Otkin,&nbsp;Amanda Sheffield,&nbsp;Dennis Todey,&nbsp;Roger Pulwarty","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005276","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005276","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather that leads to hydrological imbalance. Drought assessments determine the characteristics, severity, and impacts of a drought. Climate change adds conceptual and quantitative challenges to traditional drought assessments. This paper highlights the challenges of assessing drought in a climate made non-stationary by human activities or natural variability. To address these challenges, we then identify 10 key research priorities for advancing drought science and improving assessments in a changing climate. The priorities focus on improving drought indicators to account for non-stationarity, evaluating drought impacts and their trends, addressing regional differences in non-stationarity, determining the physical drivers of drought and how they are changing, capturing precipitation variability, and understanding the drivers of aridification. Ultimately, improved drought assessments will inform better risk management, adaptation strategies, and planning, especially in areas where climate change significantly alters drought dynamics. This perspective offers a path toward more accurate and effective drought management in a non-stationary climate system.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005276","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Flood Hazards in a Warming Climate Could Be Amplified by Changes in Spatiotemporal Patterns and Mechanisms of Water Available for Runoff","authors":"Hongxiang Yan,&nbsp;Zhuoran Duan,&nbsp;Mark S. Wigmosta,&nbsp;Ning Sun,&nbsp;L. Ruby Leung,&nbsp;Travis B. Thurber,&nbsp;Ethan D. Gutmann,&nbsp;Jeffrey R. Arnold","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005619","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005619","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Prior research on climate change impacts on flooding has primarily focused on changes in extreme rainfall magnitudes, often neglecting snow processes and spatiotemporal storm patterns, such as hyetograph shapes and areal reduction factors (ARFs). This study examines projected changes in extreme water available for runoff (<i>W</i>) events in two snow-dominated basins in the western United States: the Yakima River Basin (YRB) in Washington State and the Walker River Basin (WRB) spanning the California-Nevada border. We analyze changes in <i>W</i> magnitudes, mechanisms, hyetograph shapes, and ARFs, and study their compounded impacts on flood hazard. Our findings suggest increased extreme <i>W</i> magnitudes across a large portion of the basins, with steeper or flatter hyetographs, and higher ARF values under the future climate. These changes are driven by a shift from seasonal snowmelt to more rain-on-snow events at higher elevations and by increased rainfall at lower elevations. We then use a single event-based rainfall-runoff model to estimate flood hazard changes based on extreme <i>W</i> magnitudes, hyetograph shapes, ARFs, and their compounded impacts. Our analysis reveals that focusing solely on the magnitude of changes in extreme <i>W</i> can significantly underestimate future flood hazards and uncertainties. Ignoring future changes in spatiotemporal patterns can underestimate future flood hazards by 63% and underestimate the uncertainty in future flood events by 18% in the WRB. These results underscore the necessity of incorporating spatiotemporal dynamics into future flood hazard assessments to provide a more accurate evaluation of potential impacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005619","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143521856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can Restoring Tidal Wetlands Reduce Estuarine Nuisance Flooding of Coasts Under Future Sea-Level Rise?","authors":"M. W. Brand,&nbsp;H. L. Diefenderfer,&nbsp;C. E. Cornu,&nbsp;M. A. McKeon,&nbsp;C. N. Janousek,&nbsp;A. B. Borde,&nbsp;T. D. Souza,&nbsp;M. E. Keogh,&nbsp;C. A. Brown,&nbsp;S. D. Bridgham","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004149","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wetland restoration is an increasingly popular nature-based method for flood risk mitigation in coastal communities. In this study, we present a novel method using hydrodynamic modeling and harmonic analysis to quantify wetlands' ability to reduce future nuisance flooding. The method leverages a hydrodynamic model calibrated to present day data and was run for a range of future sea-level rise (SLR) and wetland restoration scenarios to quantify changes to tidal harmonic amplitudes and phases. The harmonic constituents are used to generate water surface elevations over a time period of interest (e.g., one year) and compared to critical exceedance thresholds such as levee elevations. Then, changes to nuisance flooding are calculated by counting the number of hours critical thresholds are exceeded under different SLR and wetland restoration scenarios. We applied the method to Coos Bay, Oregon, USA as a test case. We found restoration reduces the number of hours nuisance flooding occurs in downtown Coos Bay from 15 hr (present day conditions) to 0 hr (fully restored condition) under median SLR (82 cm by 2100). Restoration had spatially variable impacts on reducing peak flood elevations with minimal impacts near the estuary mouth and greatest impact 32 km inland. The effectiveness of restoration was heavily dependent on future SLR. Restoration was maximally effective in 2050 under all SLR scenarios, less effective in 2100 under median SLR, and not effective under high SLR. Modeling results suggest increased tidal prism and accommodation space are driving restoration-associated reductions in tidal amplitudes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004149","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143513639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of Initial Soil Organic Carbon in Grassland on the Sensitivity of Carbon Changes to Climate After Grassland-to-Cropland Conversion","authors":"Pengpeng Dou,&nbsp;Jie Wang,&nbsp;Tianyu Cai,&nbsp;Zhengzhou Miao,&nbsp;Xu Wang,&nbsp;Junyi Liang,&nbsp;Ping Li,&nbsp;Jiangwen Fan,&nbsp;Shiming Tang,&nbsp;Xiangming Xiao,&nbsp;Lizhu Guo,&nbsp;Jing Huang,&nbsp;Qian Gao,&nbsp;Chao Chen,&nbsp;Kesi Liu,&nbsp;Kun Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005249","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005249","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The conversion of grassland to cropland alters the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) induced by grassland reclamation are poorly quantified due to the scarcity of large-scale-sampling data. Through paired sampling of 101 cropland and 101 grassland plots, this study examined changes in SOC resulting from conversion of grassland to cropland in an agropastoral ecotone of northern China. Results showed that grassland reclamation caused an average decrease of 16.07% in the surface (0–10 cm) SOC content. Over 80% of this region experienced SOC loss, while less than 20% showed increased SOC. As grassland soil organic carbon increased, the sensitivity of soil organic carbon changes to climate change following grassland-to-cropland conversion decreased, while the positive effects of changes in water flux and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) strengthened. The most important factor influencing the change in SOC after grassland reclamation was the change in NDVI in low and medium SOC grasslands and the change in vegetation transpiration in high-SOC grasslands. This study found spatial heterogeneity in the effects of grassland reclamation on SOC at the regional scale and offers insights into enhancing regional SOC sequestration.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005249","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143481421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying Biodiversity's Present and Future: Current Potentials and SSP-RCP-Driven Land Use Impacts","authors":"Yilin Cheng,&nbsp;Hongxi Liu,&nbsp;Jizeng Du,&nbsp;Yujun Yi","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005191","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Biodiversity, vital for ecosystem stability and human well-being, faces threats from land use and climate change. Accurately predicting these effects is crucial for effective conservation. High emission development scenario is commonly viewed as the most detrimental to biodiversity. However, recent researches suggest a more complex relationship between development paths and biodiversity outcomes. Our study addresses this by using an emergy-based approach to estimate current provincial-level biodiversity potential and project future species richness losses (amphibians, mammals, and birds) across climate zones and provincial divisions under various SSP-RCP scenarios for 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090. The results revealed significant regional variations in China's biodiversity potential, with the highest in southwestern provinces. Future land use trends indicate increased construction land and barren alongside a decline in grasslands, leading to considerable habitat loss and fragmentation under various scenarios, stressing conservation needs. Future biodiversity loss follows the Hu line and climate zones, with significant decreases in the south and humid regions. Land-use changes could reduce species richness by 1–6 per 10 km grid cell. High-emission scenario SSP585 do not necessarily have the most detrimental effects on biodiversity and different scenarios require targeted focus on specific climatic zones and provinces. These findings underscore that different scenarios require targeted conservation efforts in specific regions sensitive to biodiversity loss. Our study provides a scientific foundation for these targeted efforts, ensuring that regions are prioritized under various future scenarios. This approach aids in developing effective conservation strategies amidst the complex interplay of land use dynamics and climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005191","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143456145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}