Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Quantifying Global Hydrological Sensitivity to CO2 Physiological and Radiative Forcings Under Large CO2 Increases","authors":"Xuanze Zhang,&nbsp;Yongqiang Zhang,&nbsp;Ying-Ping Wang,&nbsp;Qiuhong Tang,&nbsp;Yunyun Ban,&nbsp;Chanyue Ren,&nbsp;Husi Letu,&nbsp;Jiancheng Shi,&nbsp;Changming Liu","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004246","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Prediction of surface freshwater flux (precipitation or evaporation) in a CO₂-enriched climate is highly uncertain, primarily depending on the hydrological responses to physiological and radiative forcings of CO₂ increase. Using the 1pctCO₂ (a 1% per year CO₂ increase scenario) experiments of 12 CMIP6 models, we first decouple and quantify the magnitude of global hydrological sensitivity to CO₂ physiological and radiative forcings. Results show that the direct global hydrological sensitivity (for land plus ocean precipitation) to CO₂ increase only is −0.09 ± 0.07% (100 ppm) ⁻¹ and to CO₂-induced warming alone is 1.54 ± 0.24% K⁻¹. The latter is about 10% larger than the global apparent hydrological sensitivity (i.e., including all effects, not only direct responses to warming, <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>η</mi>\u0000 <mi>a</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${eta }_{a}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> = 1.39 ± 0.22% K⁻¹). These hydrological sensitivities are relatively stable over transient 2× to 4 × CO₂ scenario. The intensification of the global water cycle are dominated by the CO₂ radiative effect (79 ± 12%) with a smaller positive contribution from the interaction between the two effects (6 ± 12%), but are reduced by the CO₂ physiological effect (−10 ± 8%). This finding underlines the importance of CO₂ vegetation physiology in global water cycle projections under a CO₂-enriched and warming climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004246","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142749006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trends of the Intra-Annual Onset and End of Humid Heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Jianquan Dong,&nbsp;Stefan Brönnimann,&nbsp;Tao Hu,&nbsp;Xueyan Cheng,&nbsp;Yanxu Liu,&nbsp;Jian Peng","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005163","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Humid heatwaves negatively affect human health due to the integrating effect of temperature and humidity, and thus the early warning and timely mitigating on climate extremes are essential. Yet, systematic assessment on the intra-annual onset and end of humid heatwaves, which is associated to the occurrence of first and last humid heatwaves, are missing globally. Using a new station-based data set of daily maximum wet-bulb temperature, the start and end dates, cumulative anomaly and extremely humid heat of the first and last humid heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere were explored. It was found that at 91.54% of stations, humid heatwaves started earlier or ended later in the period of 2001–2020 compared to 1981–2000. High cumulative anomalies of the first or last humid heatwaves were found in the mid- and high-latitude regions. Average difference between all humid heatwaves and the first humid heatwaves in cumulative anomalies increased steadily at stations north of 35°N. At regional scales, South East Asia had become the most prominent area with intensification of intra-annual onset and end of humid heatwaves and will experience more frequent extreme events by 2100. Our findings demonstrated more intensified characteristics of the intra-annual onset and end of humid heatwaves, calling for global awareness.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005163","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142708248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Nonlinear and Distinct Responses of Ocean Heat Content and Anthropogenic Carbon to Ice Sheet Freshwater Discharge in a Warming Climate","authors":"Tessa Gorte,&nbsp;Nicole S. Lovenduski,&nbsp;Cara Nissen,&nbsp;Jan T. M. Lenaerts,&nbsp;Jeffrey B. Weiss","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004475","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Anthropogenic climate change will drive extensive mass loss across both the Antarctic (AIS) and Greenland Ice Sheets (GrIS), with the potential for global climate system feedbacks, especially in polar regions. Historically, the high-latitude North Atlantic and Southern Ocean have been critical regions for anthropogenic heat and carbon uptake, but our understanding of how this uptake will be altered by future freshwater discharge is incomplete. We assess each ice sheet's impact on global ocean anthropogenic heat and carbon storage for a high-emission scenario over the <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mn>21</mn>\u0000 <mtext>st</mtext>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${21}^{text{st}}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>-century using a coupled Earth system model. We explore the impact of contemporaneous mass loss from both ice sheets on anthropogenic heat and carbon storage and quantify their linear and nonlinear contributions. Notably, added freshwater reduces ocean heat and carbon storage by 2,100, and the sum of individual freshwater effects differ from those induced by simultaneous freshwater discharge from both ice sheets. Combined AIS and GrIS freshwater engenders distinct anthropogenic storage anomalies—particularly in the high-latitude Southern Ocean and North Atlantic. From 2080 to 2100, GrIS freshwater exerts primary control on the temporal evolution of global ocean heat storage, while global ocean carbon storage is modulated by the linear AIS and GrIS freshwater impacts. Nonlinear impacts of simultaneous ice sheet discharge have a non-negligible contribution to the evolution of global ocean heat storage. Further, anthropogenic heat changes are realized more quickly in response to ice sheet discharge than anthropogenic carbon. Our results highlight the need to incorporate both ice sheets actively in climate models to accurately project future global climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004475","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142708182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of Different Satellite-Based Precipitation Signature Errors on Hydrological Modeling Performance Across China","authors":"Chiyuan Miao,&nbsp;Jiaojiao Gou,&nbsp;Jinlong Hu,&nbsp;Qingyun Duan","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004954","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004954","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The quasi-global availability of satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs) holds significant potential for improving hydrological modeling skill. However, limited knowledge exists concerning the impacts of different SPP error type on hydrological modeling skill and their sensitivity across different climate zones. In this study, forcing data sets from 10 SPPs were collected to drive hydrological models during the period 2001–2018 for 366 catchments across China. Here, we analyze the impact of the SPP errors associated with different precipitation intensities (light, moderate, and heavy) and different precipitation signatures (magnitude, variance, and occurrence) on the performance of hydrological simulations, and rank the sensitivities of SPPs errors for four major Köppen-Geiger climate zones. The results show that heavy precipitation in SPPs is generally associated with higher errors than light and moderate precipitation when compared to gauge-based precipitation observations, but hydrological model skill is more sensitive to errors from moderate precipitation than from heavy precipitation. The probability of moderate precipitation detection was identified as the most sensitive metric in determining hydrological model performance, with sensitivities of 0.58, 0.39, 0.59, and 0.47 in the temperate, boreal, arid, and highland climate zones, respectively. The variance error and magnitude error for heavy precipitation from SPPs were also identified as sensitive factors for hydrological modeling in the temperate and arid climate zones, respectively. These findings are crucial for enhancing the understanding of interactions between SPPs uncertainty and hydrological simulations, leading to improved data accuracy of precipitation forcing and the identification of appropriate SPPs for hydrological simulation in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004954","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142708159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Practitioners’ Needs for Addressing the Challenges of Sea-Level Rise—A Qualitative Assessment","authors":"D. Hirschfeld,&nbsp;K. M. Archie,&nbsp;E. Mateo,&nbsp;J. C. Arnott,&nbsp;J. A. Vano","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004717","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Practitioners at the local and regional scale are under increased pressure to reduce risks to people and property posed by the threats of sea-level rise (SLR) and associated impacts. To achieve this, a dialog between practitioners and scientists is imperative. Current research documents impacts of SLR, evaluates local SLR adaptation activities, identifies barriers to action, and works to assess local adaptive capacity. Despite this work, there has been little qualitative assessment of practitioners' needs when it comes to translating SLR science into local changes. To fill this gap, we used a combination of semi-structured interviews and surveys. The interviews revealed practitioners’ needs, the tools they use, the challenges they face, and the contexts in which they make decisions. The survey allowed practitioners to rank potential interventions according to the level of impact they believed it would have on coastal adaptation planning. In total our study includes the perspectives of 142 practitioners from 24 states, Puerto Rico, the Mariana Islands, and Barbados. Corroborating earlier work, we find that resources broadly and funding specifically is the largest barrier faced by practitioners. We find that practitioners need more localized information and models supported by on the ground monitoring, decision support resources that allow for comparison of different scenarios, and communication tools that will enable them to engage with key audiences. These needs suggest a critical shift toward building trusted relationship between scientists and local practitioners and the need to bolster organizations that can support a bridge between these two contexts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004717","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142708078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fossil Fuel CO2 Emission Signatures Over India Captured by OCO-2 Satellite Measurements","authors":"Vigneshkumar Balamurugan,&nbsp;Jia Chen","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004411","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004411","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Monitoring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies. Recent advances in satellite remote-sensing measurements allow us to track greenhouse gas emissions globally. This study assessed &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;CO&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{CO}}_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; emissions from various point or local sources, particularly power plants in India, using 8 years of concurrent high-spatial resolution OCO-2 satellite measurements. A Gaussian plume (GP) model was used to evaluate the power plant emissions reported in the Carbon Brief (CB) database. In total (39 cases), 42 different power plant &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;CO&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{CO}}_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; emissions were assessed, with 26 of them being assessed more than once. The estimated power plant &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;CO&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{CO}}_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; emissions were within &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;±&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $pm $&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; 25% of the emissions reported in the CB database in 11 out of 39 cases and within &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;±&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $pm $&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; 50% in 18 cases. To evaluate the EDGAR and ODIAC &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;CO&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{CO}}_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; emission inventories in terms of missing and highly underestimated sources, we estimated the cross-sectional (CS) &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;CO&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${text{CO}}_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; e","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004411","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142708214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future Scenarios for River Exports of Multiple Pollutants by Sources and Sub-Basins Worldwide: Rising Pollution for the Indian Ocean","authors":"Ilaria Micella,&nbsp;Carolien Kroeze,&nbsp;Mirjam P. Bak,&nbsp;Ting Tang,&nbsp;Yoshihide Wada,&nbsp;Maryna Strokal","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004712","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004712","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In the future, rivers may export more pollutants to coastal waters, driven by socio-economic development, increased material consumption, and climate change. However, existing scenarios often ignore multi-pollutant problems. Here, we aim to explore future trends in annual river exports of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus), plastics (macro and micro), and emerging contaminants (triclosan and diclofenac) at the sub-basin scale worldwide. For this, we implement into the process-based MARINA-Multi model (Model to Assess River Inputs of pollutaNts to the seAs) two new multi-pollutant scenarios: “Sustainability-driven Future” (SD) and “Economy-driven Future” (ED). In ED, river exports of nutrients and microplastics will double by 2100, globally. In SD, a decrease of up to 83% is projected for river export of all studied pollutants by 2100, globally. Diffuse sources such as fertilizers are largely responsible for increasing nutrient pollution in the two scenarios. Point sources, namely sewage systems, are largely responsible for increasing microplastic pollution in the ED scenario. In both scenarios, the coastal waters of the Indian Ocean will receive up to 400% more pollutants from rivers by 2100 because of growing population, urbanization, and poor waste management in the African and Asian sub-basins. The situation differs for sub-basins draining into the Mediterranean Sea and the Pacific Ocean (mainly less future pollution) and the Atlantic Ocean and Arctic Ocean (more or less future pollution depending on sub-basins and scenarios). From 56% to 78% of the global population are expected to live in more polluted river basins in the future, challenging sustainable development goals for clean waters.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004712","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142708216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Toy Model for the Global Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones","authors":"Yufeng Zhou,&nbsp;Yanluan Lin","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004839","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004839","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The annual number of global tropical cyclones (TCs) has remained rather stable at ∼90 in the past decades, yet the underlying physics and mechanisms remain elusive. This study utilizes observational data to assess TC-environment interactions, such as atmospheric drying, stabilization, and oceanic cooling, which occur after TC passage and inhibit subsequent TC formation. Focused on the recovery of TC-induced hostile environment, we construct an idealized toy model incorporating the global main development region (MDR), recovery time and influencing radius. The model well captures the spatial and temporal characteristics of TC activity. Then we propose a new scaling of annual TC number, framed as a spatiotemporal packing problem determined by the total spatiotemporal area available for TC formation and the average area occupied by each TC. The recovery time is included as a new temporal constraint, and this scaling is validated by toy model simulations and offers insights into observations. Specifically, based on TC attributes in the current climate, the scaling yields an estimate of ∼100 TCs per year given a recovery time of 2–3 weeks. It also implies that a warming climate might lead to fewer TCs due to increased TC size and longer recovery times.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004839","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142707879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effective Adaptation Options to Alleviate Nuisance Flooding in Coastal Megacities—Learning From Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam","authors":"Leon Scheiber,&nbsp;Nivedita Sairam,&nbsp;Mazen Hoballah Jalloul,&nbsp;Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi,&nbsp;Christian Jordan,&nbsp;Jan Visscher,&nbsp;Tara Evaz Zadeh,&nbsp;Laurens J. N. Oostwegel,&nbsp;Danijel Schorlemmer,&nbsp;Ngo Thanh Son,&nbsp;Hong Nguyen Quan,&nbsp;Torsten Schlurmann,&nbsp;Matthias Garschagen,&nbsp;Heidi Kreibich","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004766","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004766","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The economies and livelihoods of many coastal megacities are at serious risk from flooding, despite investments in flood defenses. For instance, in Ho Chi Minh City, the construction of a large-scale ring-dike has mitigated negative effects from storm surges, yet damage is still frequently caused by high-intensity rainfalls leading to nuisance flooding, which is responsible for the highest proportion of flood losses in the city today. Because sustainable flood risk management requires detailed spatial information, we analyze the local risk and its components based on a chain of novel models previously calibrated and validated for Ho Chi Minh City. Furthermore, we assess the effectiveness of two decentralized adaptation options, namely private precautionary measures and rainwater retention, for mitigating pluvial flooding. Our integrated risk assessment reveals that the approaches are complementary, which is a major advantage for their implementation. Implementation of both approaches has the potential to reduce the expected annual damage and the number of annually affected households by 16% and 56%, respectively. This is also reflected in a significant reduction of annual losses per household, which we propose as an additional, people-centered indicator of flood risk. Moreover, these measures are well-suited to strengthen citizen participation in risk reduction beyond top-down protection schemes. Complementing the ring-dike with decentralized adaptation options can therefore be seen as an effective and generic strategy to alleviate the impacts of nuisance flooding in coastal megacities, such as Ho Chi Minh City, and should be incentivized by decision-makers. Aside from hydrological and metocean site conditions, both the methodology and findings of this study are transferrable to any coastal megacity facing similar challenges.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004766","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142674307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Observations Over a Century Underscore an Increasing Likelihood of Compound Dry-Hot Events in China","authors":"Ruixin Duan,&nbsp;Guohe Huang,&nbsp;Feng Wang,&nbsp;Chuyin Tian,&nbsp;Xinying Wu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004546","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004546","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The impacts of extreme events are seldom caused by a single climatic variable but rather arise from the interaction of multiple climate drivers. This study employs observational data sets with high spatiotemporal resolution to analyze the risk of occurrence of compound dry-hot events in China over the past 120 years (i.e., 1901–2020). Simultaneously, attribution analysis based on distribution functions explores whether and to what extent human activities influence the occurrence of compound events. The results indicate that over the historical 120-year period, the frequency of compound dry-hot events in China has gradually increased, with the highest frequency observed in the most recent 40 years (i.e., 1981–2020). The frequency of compound dry-hot events during this period is approximately four times that of 1901–1940 and about twice that of 1941–1980. The analysis of the relative importance of different factors reveals that temperature changes contribute more (56%) to the occurrence of compound events than precipitation (23%), and also exceed the interaction between them (21%). The substantial increase in compound dry-hot events is largely attributed to the influence of human activities. Across seven sub-regions, human activities have led to an increase in the probability of compound events occurring, ranging from 7.9% to 31.6%. The findings of this study indicate that human activities have significant implications for explaining the observed increase in compound hot and dry events over the past 40 years.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004546","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142665946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}