Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"The Critical Role of Hydrological Distance in Shaping Nutrient Dynamics Along the Watershed-Lake Continuum","authors":"Jiacong Huang,&nbsp;George B. Arhonditsis,&nbsp;Yinjun Zhang,&nbsp;Shuai Zhang,&nbsp;Yulai Ji,&nbsp;Hans W. Paerl,&nbsp;Erik Jeppesen,&nbsp;Junfeng Gao","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004860","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004860","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Terrestrial hydrological and nutrient cycles are subjected to major disturbances by agricultural operations and urbanization that profoundly influence freshwater resources. Non-point source pollution is one of the primary causes for water quality deterioration, and thus an emerging imperative in limnology is establishing empirical models that connect watershed attributes and hydrological drivers with lake nutrient dynamics. Here, we compiled three nation-wide nutrient, meteorological, and watershed-landscape data sets, to develop Generalized Linear Models that predict lake phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations as a function of the surrounding watershed characteristics within various hydrological distances across 104 Chinese lakes and reservoirs. Our national-scale investigation revealed that lake nutrient concentrations can be satisfactorily predicted by proxies of natural drivers and anthropogenic activities, reflecting the properties of the surrounding watershed. Counter to previous studies, we found that China's lake nutrient concentrations strongly depend on watershed characteristics within a hydrological distance of less than 45 km rather than the entire watershed. Furthermore, extensive human activities in watersheds not only compromise our predictive capacity, but also increase the hydrological distance that is relevant to predict lake nutrients. This national-scale characterization can inform one of the most contentious issues in the context of China's lake management, that is, the determination of the extent of the nearshore area, where nutrient control should be prioritized. As far as we know, our study represents the first attempt to apply the concept of hydrological distance and establish statistical models that can delineate the critical spatial domain primarily responsible for the nutrient conditions along the watershed-lake continuum.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004860","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142443443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating Fishing Exploitation Rates to Simulate Global Catches and Biomass Changes of Pelagic and Demersal Fish","authors":"P. D. van Denderen,&nbsp;N. Jacobsen,&nbsp;K. H. Andersen,&nbsp;J. L. Blanchard,&nbsp;C. Novaglio,&nbsp;C. A. Stock,&nbsp;C. M. Petrik","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004604","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004604","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Robust projections of future trends in global fish biomass, production and catches are needed for informed fisheries policy in a changing climate. Trust in future projections, however, relies on establishing that models can accurately simulate past relationships between exploitation rates and ecosystem states. In addition, historical simulations are important to describe how the oceans have changed due to fishing. Here we use fisheries catch, catch-only assessment models and effort data to estimate regional fishing exploitation levels, defined as the fishing mortality relative to fishing mortality at maximum sustainable yield (F/F_MSY). These estimates are given for large pelagic, forage and demersal fish types across all large marine ecosystems and the high seas between 1961 and 2004; and with a ‘ramp-up’ between 1841 and 1960. We find that global exploitation rates for large pelagic and demersal fish consistently exceed those for forage fish and peak in the late 1980s. We use the rates to globally simulate historical fishing patterns in a mechanistic fish community model. The modeled catch aligns with the reconstructed catch, both for total catch and catch distribution by functional type. Simulations show a clear deviation from an unfished model state, with a 25% reduction in biomass in large pelagic and demersal fish in shelf regions in recent years and a 50% increase in forage fish, primarily due to reduced predation. The simulations can set a baseline for assessing the effect of climate change relative to fishing. The results highlight the influential role of fishing as a primary driver of global fish community dynamics.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004604","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142447697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Negative Asymmetric Response of Pantropical Gross Primary Productivity to Precipitation Anomalies","authors":"Lei Fan,&nbsp;Guanyu Dong,&nbsp;Philippe Ciais,&nbsp;Xiangming Xiao,&nbsp;Jingfeng Xiao,&nbsp;Xiuzhi Chen,&nbsp;Yiqi Luo,&nbsp;Shuli Niu,&nbsp;Fei Jiang,&nbsp;Frédéric Frappart,&nbsp;Jean-Pierre Wigneron,&nbsp;Xing Li,&nbsp;Tianxiang Cui,&nbsp;Li Pan,&nbsp;Rasmus Fensholt","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004760","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004760","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The carbon sink in pantropical biomes play a crucial role in modulating the inter-annual variations of global terrestrial carbon balance and is threatened by extreme climate events. However, it has not been carefully examined whether an increase in tropical gross primary productivity (GPP) can compensate the decrease during precipitation anomalies. Using the asymmetry index (AI) and multiple GPP products, we assessed responses of pantropical GPP to precipitation anomalies during 2001–2022. Positive AI indicates that GPP increases are greater than GPP decreases during precipitation anomalies, and vice versa. Our results showed an average negative pantropical GPP asymmetry, that is, GPP decreases exceeded the GPP increases during precipitation anomalies. In addition, a positive AI was found in tropical hyper-arid and arid regions, which is opposite to the negative AI observed in tropical semi-arid, sub-humid, and humid regions. This suggest that tropical GPP asymmetry changes from positive to negative as the moisture increases. Notably, a significant decreasing trend of negative AI was observed over the entire tropical region, indicating that the negative effect of inter-annual precipitation variations on pantropical vegetation productivity has enhanced. Considering the model predicted increasing climate variability and extremes, the negative impact of precipitation variability on tropical carbon cycle may continue to intensify. Lastly, the divergence in AI estimates among multiple GPP products highlight the need to further improve our understanding of the response of tropical carbon cycle to climate changes, especially for the tropical humid regions.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004760","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142438972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring Global Data Sets to Detect Changes in Soil Microbial Carbon and Nitrogen Over Three Decades","authors":"Wenjiao Shi,&nbsp;Decai Gao,&nbsp;Zhen Zhang,&nbsp;Jinzhi Ding,&nbsp;Chunhong Zhao,&nbsp;Huimin Wang,&nbsp;Frank Hagedorn","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004733","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004733","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Understanding the temporal dynamics of soil microbial biomass is crucial for assessing soil ecosystem functions and services, yet these dynamics are globally uncertain. Here, we compiled a data set of soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and nitrogen (MBN) from 1493 studies between 1988 and 2019 to elucidate their temporal trends and potential drivers. Results showed that global MBC and MBN significantly decreased by 0.033 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ and 0.007 Mg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ at 0–30 cm soil depth, between 1988 and 2019, respectively, which might be primarily attributed to the warming of the climate, the increase in global precipitation, and reduction of soil organic carbon (SOC) stock. The rate of decline in MBC and MBN showed a non-linear trend: following a decline from 1988 to 1999, it slowed down until 2014, likely due to the global warming hiatus. Afterward, the pace of decline increased again from 2015 to 2019. Boreal biomes experienced the largest decrease in soil microbial biomass with the reduction rate of MBC being 4.3 times higher than in temperate biomes, showing a higher sensitivity in boreal biomes to climate change. Grassland ecosystems also exhibited greater reductions, possibly driven by their degradation. These findings shed valuable insights on the long-term dynamics of soil microbial biomass on a global scale over the last three decades. Furthermore, this study underscores the importance of preserving soil microbial biomass as a key strategy to mitigate the adverse effects of future climate change, thereby sustaining ecosystem health and resilience.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004733","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142429958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"¿Libre de la Maleza Estatista? Assessing Neoliberal Promises and Water Markets in Chile","authors":"Benji Reade Malagueño,&nbsp;Paolo D'Odorico","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004963","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004963","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Neoliberal approaches to water governance, pioneered in Chile in the 1980s, are reappearing today on the centerstage of the water policy debate. While advocates claim that strong property rights, limits on government authority, and water markets can enhance environmental sustainability, efficiency, neutrality, and equity in the distribution of water rights, limited empirical evidence exists on whether neoliberal policies have delivered on these key promises. In this paper, we combine hydrological analysis with a nationwide data set on government water rights allocations between 1981 and 2021 to determine when and where water has been allocated beyond sustainable limits. We then integrate water market transaction and agricultural data to assess how allocations and scarcity conditions relate to spatial and temporal patterns in irrigation, crop distribution, and water market activity. Our results indicate that 30% of catchments are overallocated, and that continued government allocations of water rights during scarcity exacerbate already-high inequalities in the distribution of water. We find no evidence that scarcity or water markets induced improvements in numerous efficiency metrics. Overall, our results support growing claims that the neoliberal water model fails to fulfill its key promises, notably to the detriment of nature and marginalized rural communities.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004963","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Wind Erosion Reduction Driven by Changing Climate and Land Use","authors":"Ranhao Sun,&nbsp;Hongbin He,&nbsp;Yongcai Jing,&nbsp;Song Leng,&nbsp;Guocheng Yang,&nbsp;Yihe Lü,&nbsp;Pasquale Borrelli,&nbsp;Liding Chen,&nbsp;Bojie Fu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004930","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While significant progress has been achieved in researching water erosion, our understanding of global patterns and the magnitude of wind soil erosion remains limited. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment using the revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ) of the global rates and long-term trends (1982–2019) of wind erosion using a spatially explicit (0.05° × 0.05°) quantitative model. On average, in this study global wind erosion caused 312.5 Pg yr⁻¹ of soil loss, with a decreasing trend of 1.04 ± 0.48 Pg yr⁻¹ (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) during 1982–2019. Excluding stable regions, approximately 36% of the modeled areas exhibit a significant decrease in wind erosion, accounting for 3.13 ± 0.18 Pg yr⁻¹, while only 9% experience a notable increase, amounting for 1.83 ± 0.16 Pg yr⁻¹. The decrease of wind erosion primarily occurs in the southern hemispheres. Notably, wind erosion decreases considerably in grassland and cropland, while it remains unchanged in dryland. Although grassland and cropland account for only 11% and 1.8% of the total erosion, they contribute to 68% and 17% of the total erosion reduction, respectively. This study highlights global wind stilling and vegetation greening as important factors contributing to the decline in wind erosion and offers valuable insights into the intricate relationship between climate change and terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon sequestration and agricultural productivity.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004930","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Crops Feed Rain to Drylands in Northwest China","authors":"Qiang An,&nbsp;Arie Staal,&nbsp;Liu Liu,&nbsp;Yongming Cheng,&nbsp;Jing Liu,&nbsp;Guanhua Huang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004791","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004791","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As a key region supplementing China's limited croplands, Northwest China has undergone rapid cropland expansion over the past decades to satisfy rising food demand from population growth and socio-economic development. Although cropland expansion may overconsume local water resources in general, in Northwest China, increased precipitation and enhanced glacier melt have increased the water available for croplands. Counterintuitively, the enhanced evapotranspiration (ET) resulting from this cropland expansion could benefit remote ecologically vulnerable natural vegetation through atmospheric moisture recycling. In this study, we used a moisture tracking model to quantify contributions of croplands and cropland expansion to local precipitation and the consequent precipitation supply to natural vegetation in Northwest China. We found that the croplands contributed 27.69 billion m³/year (2.13%) of regional total precipitation and supplied 17.30 billion m³/year (2.39%) of precipitation over natural vegetation, and the cropland expansion resulted in a net increase of 80.25 million m³/year (1.07% of the total increase) in regional precipitation and 36.23 million m³/year (4.56% of the total increase) in precipitation supply for natural vegetation. Among different types of natural vegetation, grasslands received the most precipitation supply due to its vast area, followed by forests and shrublands. The more arid regions experienced not only faster rates of cropland expansion but also obtained a greater increase in regional precipitation and precipitation supply to natural vegetation. Our study quantifies the ecological impacts of cropland expansion through moisture recycling in Northwest China. This shows the complexities of water competition between agricultural development and ecological conservation in drylands and elsewhere.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004791","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Customized Statistically Downscaled CMIP5 and CMIP6 Projections: Application in the Edwards Aquifer Region in South-Central Texas","authors":"A. M. Wootten,&nbsp;H. Başağaoğlu,&nbsp;F. P. Bertetti,&nbsp;D. Chakraborty,&nbsp;C. Sharma,&nbsp;M. Samimi,&nbsp;A. Mirchi","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004716","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004716","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate projections are being used for decision-making related to climate mitigation and adaptation and as inputs for impacts modeling related to climate change. The plethora of available projections presents end users with the challenge of how to select climate projections, known as the “practitioner's dilemma.” In addition, if an end-user determines that existing projections cannot be used, then they face the additional challenge of producing climate projections for their region that are useful for their needs. We present a methodology with novel features to address the “practitioner's dilemma” for generating downscaled climate projections for specific applications. We use the Edwards Aquifer region (EAR) in south-central Texas to demonstrate a process to select a subset of global climate models from both the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles, followed by downscaling and verification of the accuracy of downscaled data against historical data. The results show that average precipitation changes range from a decrease of 10.4 mm to an increase of 25.6 mm, average temperature increases from 2.0°C to 4.3°C, and the number of days exceeding 37.8°C (100°F) increase by 35–70 days annually by the end of century. The findings enhance our understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on the EAR, essential for developing effective regional management strategies. Additionally, the results provide valuable scenario-based projected data to be used for groundwater and spring flow modeling and present a clearly documented example addressing the “practitioner's dilemma” in the EAR.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004716","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wealth Over Woe: Global Biases in Hydro-Hazard Research","authors":"Lina Stein,&nbsp;S. Karthik Mukkavilli,&nbsp;Birgit M. Pfitzmann,&nbsp;Peter W. J. Staar,&nbsp;Ugur Ozturk,&nbsp;Cesar Berrospi,&nbsp;Thomas Brunschwiler,&nbsp;Thorsten Wagener","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004590","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004590","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Floods, droughts, and rainfall-induced landslides are hydro-hazards that affect millions of people every year. Anticipation, mitigation, and adaptation to these hazards is increasingly outpaced by their changing magnitude and frequency due to climate change. A key question for society is whether the research we pursue has the potential to address knowledge gaps and to reduce potential future hazard impacts where they will be most severe. We use natural language processing, based on a new climate hazard taxonomy, to review, identify, and geolocate out of 100 million abstracts those that deal with hydro-hazards. We find that the spatial distribution of study areas is mostly defined by human activity, national wealth, data availability, and population distribution. Hydro-hazard events that impact large numbers of people lead to increased research activity, but with a strong disparity between low- and high-income countries. We find that 100 times more people need to be affected by hazards before low-income countries reach comparable research activity to high-income countries. This “Wealth over Woe” bias needs to be addressed by enabling and targeting research on hydro-hazards in highly impacted and under-researched regions, or in those sufficiently socio-hydrologically similar. We urgently need to reduce knowledge base biases to mitigate and adapt to changing hydro-hazards if we want to achieve a sustainable and equitable future for all global citizens.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004590","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Biodiversity Conservation Strategies From No Net Loss to Net Gain. A Multidimensional Accounting Method","authors":"Ningyu Yan,&nbsp;Gengyuan Liu,&nbsp;Sergio Ulgiati,&nbsp;Zhifeng Yang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004652","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Biodiversity credits are increasingly recognized as a potential instrument to incentivize and bolster efforts in biodiversity conservation. Nevertheless, their efficacy is impeded by a dearth of research. To mitigate these constraints, this study introduces a comprehensive and integrated framework for appraising biodiversity credits. Drawing upon the Emergy Accounting methodology, the framework encompasses four key perspectives: Emergy-based Ecosystem Potential (EEP), Emergy-based Ecosystem Network (EEN), Emergy-based “Species' to Human” contributions (ESH), and Emergy-based Species' Significance. Furthermore, this study scrutinizes the trajectory of biodiversity credits across 31 provinces spanning from 2000 to 2050, considering 220 distinct scenarios. The findings reveal that China has attained the no net loss (NNL) objective concerning conventional area-based conservation targets, with forest cover encompassing 27% of the total land area. However, biodiversity credits at the ecosystem level exhibit an escalating trend, with growth rates ranging from 0.73% to 1.0%, while credits at the species level depict a decremental trend, with an approximate growth rate of −0.21%. Under a scenario of moderate growth, projections for the year 2030 indicate that the EEP credit is poised to accrue approximately 4.76E + 20 solar emjoules (sej), the EEN credit is forecasted to accumulate around 1.03E + 21 sej, and the ESH credit is anticipated to decline by 1.46E + 23 sej within the context of the NNL paradigm. These outcomes underscore the necessity of delineating differentiated biodiversity goals, and furnish insights into the dynamics of supply and demand pertaining to biodiversity credits within the ambit of offsetting schemes across the nation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004652","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}