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Balancing Physical and Human-Driven Morphodynamic Changes: Insights From the Pearl River Estuary 平衡自然和人类驱动的形态动力学变化:来自珠江口的见解
IF 8.2 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF005965
Junjie Deng, Hongze Yu, Yi Zhang, Jingyu Hu, Giovanni Coco, Jiaxue Wu
{"title":"Balancing Physical and Human-Driven Morphodynamic Changes: Insights From the Pearl River Estuary","authors":"Junjie Deng,&nbsp;Hongze Yu,&nbsp;Yi Zhang,&nbsp;Jingyu Hu,&nbsp;Giovanni Coco,&nbsp;Jiaxue Wu","doi":"10.1029/2025EF005965","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF005965","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Pearl River Estuary, home to one of the world's densest human populations, exemplifies the delicate balance between natural dynamics and anthropogenic pressures. Our study explores how human activities and environmental changes interact to reshape this vital system, potentially driving it toward a tipping point. By integrating historical data, a Bayesian Network model, and a process-based morphodynamic model, we quantify the relative contributions of sediment supply, land reclamation, dredging, sand mining, and sea-level rise to estuarine evolution. Sediment supply remains the dominant driver, but human interventions and rising sea levels significantly disrupt the system's dynamics potentially leading to a tipping point in the estuarine morphodynamics of the Pearl River Estaury. We identify three distinct phases of estuarine evolution, revealing how cumulative pressures driven by anthropogenic pressure could force the estuary into different states with ecological, economic and societal consequences. These findings provide a general and transferable framework for detecting human impacts on estuarine systems and inform climate adaptation strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF005965","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145135294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Plant-Level Emissions and Synergistic Control of Pollutants and Carbon Dioxide in China's Cement Industry Based on Real-Time Monitoring Data 基于实时监测数据的中国水泥工业厂级排放及污染物和二氧化碳协同控制
IF 8.2 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006035
Jiabao Qu, Song Lv, Shuangyue Qian, Shuo Qi, Jieyi Li, Hongxia Xu, Xiaojun Lv, Ruxing Wan, Jiansheng Cui, Yinghao Chu, Ling Tang
{"title":"Plant-Level Emissions and Synergistic Control of Pollutants and Carbon Dioxide in China's Cement Industry Based on Real-Time Monitoring Data","authors":"Jiabao Qu,&nbsp;Song Lv,&nbsp;Shuangyue Qian,&nbsp;Shuo Qi,&nbsp;Jieyi Li,&nbsp;Hongxia Xu,&nbsp;Xiaojun Lv,&nbsp;Ruxing Wan,&nbsp;Jiansheng Cui,&nbsp;Yinghao Chu,&nbsp;Ling Tang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006035","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006035","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The cement industry is a major source of air pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>), threatening air quality and climate change. To reduce such emissions, China has introduced a set of ambitious synergistic control policies targeting cement-related emissions. This study evaluated the impacts of emission policies and projected future reduction potentials by constructing a nationwide, smokestack-level, hourly frequency emissions database for China's cement industry, covering approximately 92%–96% of Chinese cement plants (including a total of 1,382–1,491 production lines from 1,054–1,124 cement clinker plants) during 2021–2023. The results demonstrated that policies implemented between 2020 and 2023 led to reductions of 38.2%, 19.1%, 31.6%, and 18.4% for particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>), nitrogen oxides (NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>), and CO<sub>2</sub>, respectively. Notably, 90% of plants already met the 2024 ultra-low emission (ULE) standards for PM and SO<sub>2</sub>, but only 26.3% complied with the ULE standards for NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>. Furthermore, our results revealed that adopting multiple abatement measures plays a critical role in capturing the co-benefits of pollutants and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions reduction. If all remaining plants adopt co-processing technology, install and upgrade high-efficiency emission control equipment, improve energy efficiency, and further eliminate outdated production capacity, they could synergistically reduce 9.8%–67.4% of pollutants and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and increase the proportion of synergy index (<i>SI</i>) &gt; 0 (indicating a synergistic trend between pollutants and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions) values by 2.8%–21.7%. This study provides evidence for air pollution and climate mitigation in China and offers insights for other countries looking to reduce emissions from the cement industry.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006035","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145135288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Strengthening Coupling Between Vegetation and Soil-Atmosphere Compound Drought Over the Past Two Decades 近20年来植被与土壤-大气复合干旱耦合增强
IF 8.2 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006311
Rong Wu, Zijun Wang, Fangxiu Meng, Yangyang Liu, Haiyun Shi
{"title":"Strengthening Coupling Between Vegetation and Soil-Atmosphere Compound Drought Over the Past Two Decades","authors":"Rong Wu,&nbsp;Zijun Wang,&nbsp;Fangxiu Meng,&nbsp;Yangyang Liu,&nbsp;Haiyun Shi","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006311","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006311","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Soil-atmosphere compound drought (SACD) significantly impacts vegetation, with effects expected to intensify under global warming. However, the dynamic coupling relationship between vegetation and SACD considering the optimal time lag remains unclear. To address this, we first employed copulas to develop a SACD index at temporal scales ranging from 1 to 24 months. Based on this index, the coupling relationship represented by the maximum correlation coefficient (<i>R</i><sub>max</sub>) and the optimal time lag (<i>T</i><sub>opt</sub>) between the Leaf Area Index and the SACD was examined. Furthermore, the coupling degree between the two was explored both temporally and spatially. The results revealed a significant nonlinear trend in both <i>R</i><sub>max</sub> and <i>T</i><sub>opt</sub>, with turning points identified using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition occurring between 2010–2014 and 2011–2015, respectively. Additionally, it was found that the temporal coupling degree was strong, while the spatial coupling was initially weaker but showed an increasing trend, particularly in water-limited regions. Land surface model simulations indicated that CO<sub>2</sub> was the dominant driver of the vegetation-drought coupling relationship and degree. Machine learning and SHapley Additive Explanations underscored the critical importance of meteorological variables, with radiation, precipitation and temperature being identified as the most influential meteorological factors. Finally, based on the Peter-Clark Momentary Conditional Independence Plus, the complex causal relationship network between meteorological factors and the vegetation-drought coupling was revealed. Our study highlights the importance of examining the dynamic coupling between vegetation and SACD, with the findings providing valuable insights to support ecosystem sustainability under climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006311","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145135309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Increasing Aridity and Interannual Precipitation Variability Drives Resilience Declines in Restored Forests Across China 干旱加剧和年际降水变率导致中国恢复森林恢复力下降
IF 8.2 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006164
Wanting Wang, Shiliang Liu, Qiang Zhang, Yifei Zhao, Yuhong Dong, Gang Wu, Yetong Li, Jingyang Fan, Jiayi Lin, Ziang Tian, Lam-Son Phan Tran
{"title":"Increasing Aridity and Interannual Precipitation Variability Drives Resilience Declines in Restored Forests Across China","authors":"Wanting Wang,&nbsp;Shiliang Liu,&nbsp;Qiang Zhang,&nbsp;Yifei Zhao,&nbsp;Yuhong Dong,&nbsp;Gang Wu,&nbsp;Yetong Li,&nbsp;Jingyang Fan,&nbsp;Jiayi Lin,&nbsp;Ziang Tian,&nbsp;Lam-Son Phan Tran","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006164","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006164","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Forestation plays a crucial role in the restoration of ecosystem functions and services, while the sustainability of restored forests arouses pervasive concerns, and the resilience dynamics and mechanisms of these forests remain poorly understood. Here, we utilize the lag-1 temporal autocorrelation of satellite-based vegetation data to evaluate long-term resilience trends in stable and restored forests across China from 2001 to 2020, then apply machine-learning algorithms to explore the key drivers behind these trends. Results show that nearly half (45%) of forest ecosystems have experienced resilience declines, whether they are stable forests (44.4%) or restored forests (44.8%). Increased aridity and interannual precipitation variability have a significant impact on the resilience declines in both types of forest ecosystems. Comparatively, non-climate variables exert a larger impact on resilience declines in restored forests than in stable forests. Resilience declines are more prevalent in restored forests with low plant species richness (&lt;2,000), short forestation times (&lt;10 years), or high soil moisture (&gt;0.2 m<sup>3</sup>/m<sup>3</sup>). Structural equation models reveal that fewer critical factors directly influence the resilience of restored forests compared to stable forests. These findings underscore the importance of integrating these determinants into ecological restoration efforts to ensure forestation sustainability.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006164","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145135311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Review of Advances in Flash Drought Research: Challenges and Future Directions 突发性干旱研究进展综述:挑战与未来方向
IF 8.2 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006603
Vijay Sreeparvathy, Sengupta Debdut, Ashok Mishra
{"title":"A Review of Advances in Flash Drought Research: Challenges and Future Directions","authors":"Vijay Sreeparvathy,&nbsp;Sengupta Debdut,&nbsp;Ashok Mishra","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006603","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006603","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flash Droughts (FDs) are intense, short-duration drought events with rapid onset and intensification, occurring on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months) and causing significant socio-economic impacts. Their rapid development poses significant challenges for improving prediction efforts at these timescales. Since the first studies on FDs in 2002, the field has gained significant attention and advanced considerably. Over the past decade, research has progressed from defining FDs to employing advanced methodologies for detecting their onset, monitoring intensification, identifying causes, analyzing physical characteristics, and assessing their broad impacts. Despite these advances, important research gaps still persist. Synthesizing findings from previous FD studies is crucial for recognizing existing limitations, overcoming current challenges, and establishing future research priorities, while also informing mitigation strategies and promoting collaborative efforts. This article offers a systematic and comprehensive review of FD research based on 122 studies published between 2009 and early 2024. It critically examines the distinctions between FDs and traditional droughts, explores the concept and definition of FDs, and reviews advancements in their classification and identification, as well as the associated causes, risks, and challenges in prediction and early forecasting. The review emphasizes the importance of effective collaboration among scientific institutions, stakeholders, and policymakers, suggesting practical mitigation strategies and a framework for an integrated FD information and mitigation system. It also identifies key research gaps and challenges, aiming to support researchers and practitioners in developing sustainable strategies to enhance resilience and improve FD management efforts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006603","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144782549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Replacing Corn on Sloping Farmland by Bioenergy Crops With Optimized Harvest Frequencies: Implications for Soil and Water Conservation and Biofuel Production 坡耕地用收获频率优化的生物能源作物替代玉米:对水土保持和生物燃料生产的影响
IF 8.2 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005408
Baogui Li, Na Wen, Junyu Qi, Srinivasulu Ale, Yiwen Han, Raghavan Srinivasan, Yong Chen
{"title":"Replacing Corn on Sloping Farmland by Bioenergy Crops With Optimized Harvest Frequencies: Implications for Soil and Water Conservation and Biofuel Production","authors":"Baogui Li,&nbsp;Na Wen,&nbsp;Junyu Qi,&nbsp;Srinivasulu Ale,&nbsp;Yiwen Han,&nbsp;Raghavan Srinivasan,&nbsp;Yong Chen","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005408","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005408","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The promise of bioenergy crops includes their high productivity, suitability for marginal land, and environmentally friendly effects. Utilizing a previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool model, the effects of replacing corn with perennial bioenergy crops of Alamo switchgrass (<i>Panicum virgatum</i> L.) and <i>Miscanthus</i> × <i>giganteus</i> on soil erosion, biomass yield, and biofuel production potential were analyzed with varying slope gradients (0%–2%, 2%–4%, and &gt;4%) over a 35-year period (1984–2018) across 14 zones of the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Simulated results showed that the average annual soil erosion increased from upstream to downstream zones across the UMRB. Notably, <i>Miscanthus</i> produced approximately twice as much biomass as switchgrass in upstream zones with higher latitudes, with these differences diminishing in downstream zones due to their temperature preference. The single-harvest scenario for switchgrass annually in all 14 zones and the two-harvest scenario for <i>Miscanthus</i> in upstream Zones A–G and single-harvest scenario for downstream Zones H–N were identified as the optimal harvest frequencies. In contrast to corn land use, switchgrass and <i>Miscanthus</i> reduced soil erosion by more than 90% for the selected high-risk slope gradients under the optimized harvest frequencies. Furthermore, both <i>Miscanthus</i> and switchgrass substantially reduced organic N, nitrate N, and total N losses across all zones. Among these optimized scenarios, <i>Miscanthus</i> emerged as a better alternative to corn for selected sloping farmland, owing to its superior biofuel production (9,101 L ha<sup>−1</sup>) and total biofuel price (4.16 billion US$). These findings provide insights into transitioning from corn to perennial bioenergy crops in the sloping farmland of the U.S. Corn Belt, promoting sustainable biofuel production while mitigating environmental burdens.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005408","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144782548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Uncertain Global Terrestrial Carbon Cycles Complicate the Predictability of Global Energy Transition Pathways 不确定的全球陆地碳循环使全球能源转换路径的可预测性复杂化
IF 8.2 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005283
Han Qiu, Ryna Cui, Xin Zhao, Morgan Edwards, Ming Pan, Xuesong Zhang, Min Chen
{"title":"Uncertain Global Terrestrial Carbon Cycles Complicate the Predictability of Global Energy Transition Pathways","authors":"Han Qiu,&nbsp;Ryna Cui,&nbsp;Xin Zhao,&nbsp;Morgan Edwards,&nbsp;Ming Pan,&nbsp;Xuesong Zhang,&nbsp;Min Chen","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005283","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005283","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Paris Agreement aims to combat climate change by limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C, with aspirations of reducing it to 1.5°C by the end of the century. However, debates are intensifying over the pace and direction of energy transitions needed to meet these goals. Our study highlights significant uncertainties in the terrestrial carbon cycle and their implications for mitigation efforts and energy transition pathways. We used the results from the TRENDY Model-Intercomparison Project to represent terrestrial carbon cycle simulations from 11 models using the Hector model, the simple climate model coupled to a multisector integrated assessment model, the Global Change Analysis Model. Focusing on scenarios limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century, we assessed the uncertainties in energy trajectories and associated carbon prices. Our results reveal that uncertainties in terrestrial carbon cycle projections meaningfully affect the pace of global energy transitions to meet climate policy goals. The models predict the phase-out of unabated coal power generation by 2050 ± 7 years. Additionally, ensemble simulations estimate a carbon price of 170.25 ± 38.84 $/tCO2e in 2010$ by the end of the century. Our findings highlight the critical need to refine models and integrate updated data to improve the reliability of carbon cycle projections and guide effective climate policy development. Specifically, enhancing the representation of the terrestrial carbon cycle in integrated assessment models is essential. Addressing these uncertainties is crucial for informed decision-making and effective implementation of strategies to achieve long-term climate objectives.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005283","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144782202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
AI-Driven Weather Forecasts to Accelerate Climate Change Attribution of Heatwaves 人工智能驱动的天气预报加速热浪的气候变化归因
IF 8.2 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006453
B. Jiménez-Esteve, D. Barriopedro, J. E. Johnson, R. García-Herrera
{"title":"AI-Driven Weather Forecasts to Accelerate Climate Change Attribution of Heatwaves","authors":"B. Jiménez-Esteve,&nbsp;D. Barriopedro,&nbsp;J. E. Johnson,&nbsp;R. García-Herrera","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006453","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006453","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is driving an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves (HWs), making the rapid attribution of these events essential for assessing climate-related risks. Traditional attribution methods often suffer from selection bias, high computational costs, and delayed results, limiting their utility for real-time decision-making. In this study, we introduce a novel artificial intelligence (AI)-driven attribution framework that integrates physics-based ACC estimates from global climate models with state-of-the-art AI weather prediction (AIWP) models. We apply this approach to four HWs across different climatic regions using two AIWP models (FourCastNet-v2 and Pangu-Weather) and one hybrid AI-physics model (NeuralGCM). Our results show that AIWP models accurately predict HW intensity and spatial patterns, capturing key synoptic features such as persistent high-pressure ridges. The attribution analysis reveals a robust ACC signal in all four events and a good agreement across models. Results from the hybrid model (NeuralGCM) suggest that the intensification of HWs due to ACC can largely be inferred from the atmospheric state a few days prior to the event, while sea surface temperature forcing becomes increasingly relevant at longer lead times and in specific regions. This study demonstrates that AI-based attribution enables near real-time and anticipatory assessment of HWs, offering a scalable and computationally efficient alternative to conventional methods. By providing timely and consistent attribution of extreme heat events, this approach enhances our ability to anticipate climate risks and inform adaptation strategies in a rapidly warming world.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006453","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144773499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beyond the Floodplain: Integrating Probabilities and Storylines to Explore Regional Uncertain Direct and Cascading Climate Risks in Multi-Sectoral Systems 超越洪泛平原:整合概率和故事情节,探索多部门系统中区域不确定的直接和级联气候风险
IF 8.2 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006499
F. E. Buskop, F. Sperna Weiland, S. Hochrainer-Stigler, R. Šakić Trogrlić, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk
{"title":"Beyond the Floodplain: Integrating Probabilities and Storylines to Explore Regional Uncertain Direct and Cascading Climate Risks in Multi-Sectoral Systems","authors":"F. E. Buskop,&nbsp;F. Sperna Weiland,&nbsp;S. Hochrainer-Stigler,&nbsp;R. Šakić Trogrlić,&nbsp;B. J. J. M. van den Hurk","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006499","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006499","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Effective management of future regional climate risks in interconnected multi-sectoral systems is complicated by uncertainties in risk drivers within both human and natural systems. Comprehensive yet comprehensible targeted climate risk information exploring these uncertainties is essential for the strategic allocation of limited resources to vulnerable areas and sectors in the region. Yet conventional approaches struggle to provide it. This study addresses this gap by introducing an interdisciplinary framework incorporating meteorological, hydrological, and socio-economic perspectives. A “plausibilistic” flood risk assessment approach is presented which combines both climate and socio-economic storylines. Plausible climate scenario storylines are sampled based on their relevance for local impacts, allowing the assessment of conditional changes in high-impact probabilistic discharges. Plausible socio-economic storylines are integrated to asses future urban area and economic sectoral development. This information allows the projection of the impact potential in the region and its cascading socio-economic effects. An example application to the flood-prone, transboundary Lielupe basin shared by Latvia and Lithuania highlights sub-catchments and sectors consistently vulnerable across diverse, relevant, and credible set of future storylines. The framework thus equips regional risk managers with targeted and robust risk information, providing a strong knowledge base for prioritizing adaptation planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006499","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144773556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Subtropical Marine Cloud Brightening Suppresses the El Niño–Southern Oscillation 副热带海洋云增亮抑制El Niño-Southern振荡
IF 8.2 1区 地球科学
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-04 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006522
C. Xing, S. Stevenson, J. Fasullo, C. Harrison, C. Chen, J. Wan, J. Coupe, C. Pfleger
{"title":"Subtropical Marine Cloud Brightening Suppresses the El Niño–Southern Oscillation","authors":"C. Xing,&nbsp;S. Stevenson,&nbsp;J. Fasullo,&nbsp;C. Harrison,&nbsp;C. Chen,&nbsp;J. Wan,&nbsp;J. Coupe,&nbsp;C. Pfleger","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006522","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006522","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) and marine cloud brightening (MCB) are two proposed methods of compensating for greenhouse gas-induced warming by reflecting incoming solar radiation. However, their effects on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a critical mode of climate variability, are poorly understood. Here we use ensembles of climate model simulations to show that deploying MCB in the subtropical eastern Pacific dramatically reduces ENSO amplitude by approximately 61%, while SAI has a negligible impact. MCB increases cloud albedo, which cools the subtropical eastern Pacific and triggers a loss of moist static energy. This cooling promotes atmospheric subsidence, dries the tropical Pacific, and intensifies the trade winds. The ultimate effect is a dramatic reduction in all air-sea feedback processes operating during ENSO, which we demonstrate using a mixed-layer heat budget. This contrast between the MCB and SAI impacts on ENSO shows that the choice of climate intervention strategy used to mitigate global warming has drastic regional implications.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006522","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144773487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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