Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-01-17DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005021
Steven J. De Hertog, Anton Orlov, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Iris Manola, Julia Pongratz, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Inga Menke, Florian Humpenöder, Alexander Popp, Peter Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Inne Vanderkelen, Edouard L. Davin, Thomas Reerink, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Hans Verbeeck, Wim Thiery
{"title":"Limited Effect of Future Land-Use Changes on Human Heat Stress and Labor Capacity","authors":"Steven J. De Hertog, Anton Orlov, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Iris Manola, Julia Pongratz, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Inga Menke, Florian Humpenöder, Alexander Popp, Peter Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Inne Vanderkelen, Edouard L. Davin, Thomas Reerink, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Hans Verbeeck, Wim Thiery","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005021","url":null,"abstract":"<p>To achieve the 1.5°C target of the Paris agreement, rapid, sustained, and deep emission reductions are required, which often includes negative emissions through land-based mitigation. However, the effects of future land-use change on climate are often not considered when quantifying the climate-induced impacts on human heat stress and labor capacity. By conducting simulations with three fully coupled Earth System Models, we project the effects of land-use change on heat stress and outdoor labor capacity for two contrasting future land-use scenarios under high-ambition mitigation. Achieving a sustainable land-use scenario with increasing global forest cover instead of an inequality scenario with decreasing forest cover in the Global South causes a global cooling ranging between 0.09°C and 0.35°C across the Earth System Models. However, the effects on human heat stress are less strong, especially over the regions of intense land-use change such as the tropics, where biogeophysical effects on near-surface specific humidity and wind speed counteract the cooling effect under warm extremes. The corresponding influence on outdoor labor capacity is small and inconsistent across the three Earth System Models. These results clearly highlight the importance of land-use change scenarios for achieving global temperature targets while questioning the adaptation potential for reduction in heat stress.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005021","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-01-16DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004741
A. A. Boot, J. Steenbeek, M. Coll, A. S. von der Heydt, H. A. Dijkstra
{"title":"Global Marine Ecosystem Response to a Strong AMOC Weakening Under Low and High Future Emission Scenarios","authors":"A. A. Boot, J. Steenbeek, M. Coll, A. S. von der Heydt, H. A. Dijkstra","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004741","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004741","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Marine ecosystems provide essential services to the Earth System and society. These ecosystems are threatened by anthropogenic activities and climate change. Climate change increases the risk of passing tipping points; for example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) might tip under future global warming leading to additional changes in the climate system. Here, we look at the effect of an AMOC weakening on marine ecosystems by forcing the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) with low (SSP1-2.6) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios from 2015 to 2100. An additional freshwater flux is added in the North Atlantic to induce an extra weakening of the AMOC. In CESM2, the AMOC weakening has a large impact on phytoplankton biomass and temperature fields through various mechanisms that change the supply of nutrients to the surface ocean. We drive a marine ecosystem model, EcoOcean, with phytoplankton biomass and temperature fields from CESM2. In EcoOcean, we see negative impacts in Total System Biomass (TSB), which are larger for high trophic level organisms. On top of anthropogenic climate change, TSB decreases by −3.78<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>%</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $%$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> and −2.03<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>%</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $%$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> in SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively due to the AMOC weakening. However, regionally and for individual groups, the decrease can be as large as −30<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>%</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $%$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>, showing that an AMOC weakening can be very detrimental for local ecosystems. These results show that marine ecosystems will be under increased threat if the AMOC weakens which might put additional stresses on socio-economic systems that are dependent on marine biodiversity as a food and income source.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004741","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-01-10DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004401
Young Hoon Song, Eun-Sung Chung, Brian Odhiambo Ayugi
{"title":"CMIP6 GCMs Projected Future Koppen-Geiger Climate Zones on a Global Scale","authors":"Young Hoon Song, Eun-Sung Chung, Brian Odhiambo Ayugi","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004401","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004401","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study compared the future global climate zones based on four radiative forcings ranging from low-end (SSP1-2.6) to high-end (SSP5-8.5) using the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. To reduce uncertainties in future projected precipitation and temperature, multimodel projections comprising 25 general circulation models (GCMs) were sourced from the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six (CMIP6) and used to create a Multi-Model Ensemble. The changes in historical climate zones on CMIP6 simulations were divided into six periods considering data availability (1954–1964; 1964–1974; 1974–1984; 1984–1994; 1994–2004; and 2004–2014). Furthermore, the climate zone reproducibility of 25 CMIP6 GCMs was compared with the reference data sourced from Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation and Climatic Research Unit temperature. The future climate zones were projected into seven periods using monthly precipitation and surface temperature under four main SSP scenarios. Consequently, the climate variables from GCMs were overestimated compared to the reference data, and the composition of the climate zones was less complex. While temperature discrepancies of 1–2°C may not drastically alter the Köppen-Geiger climate zone classifications, precipitation-based classifications are significantly impacted by the observed errors. Thus, it is crucial to recognize that despite the advancements in GCMs, they still possess limitations in accurately predicting “real” future climate changes. The projected future climate zones are simpler compared to the historical periods across six continents, with tundra and ice caps expected to disappear. This study highlights potential risks by projecting future climate zones based on varying greenhouse gas concentration levels, stressing the importance of using these projections with caution given the inherent uncertainties and limitations of GCMs.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004401","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-01-09DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005263
Yixuan Shao, Qilin Cao, Junnian Song, Jiahao Xing, You Wu, Cheng Sun, Pan He, Wei Yang
{"title":"Human Health, Ecosystem Quality, and Resource Scarcity Burdens Inflicted by Livestock Production Across Chinese Regions","authors":"Yixuan Shao, Qilin Cao, Junnian Song, Jiahao Xing, You Wu, Cheng Sun, Pan He, Wei Yang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005263","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Surge in global population and shift toward animal-based diets have accelerated expansion of livestock production, posing various environmental challenges. It requires inventorying localized, activity-specific, and indicator-extended multidimensional eco-environmental burdens and revealing their transfers within interregional trade to inform holistic livestock production management from both production and consumption sides. Herein, we construct a life cycle framework covering multiple livestock species, feeding regimes, and activities to evaluate nine environmental impacts ending up as human health, ecosystem quality and resource scarcity burdens in Chinese provincial regions. Multi-regional input-output analysis is then conducted to trace transfers of these burdens embedded within trade associated with livestock production. Results indicate that fine particulate matter formation (mainly by livestock housing) and climate change (mainly by enteric fermentation) contribute greater than 60% and 30% to health burdens. Besides for health burdens, for ecosystem burdens primarily caused by housing, and resource burdens mainly aggravated by high on-farm energy use, poultry results in the highest level. The main production regions Shandong, Henan and Sichuan lead from perspectives of both production and consumption-based burdens. Whereas regions with the largest export (Inner Mongolia, 3.87 × 10<sup>4</sup> DALY for health burdens) or import (Guangdong, 3.92 × 10<sup>4</sup> DALY for health burdens) do not necessarily bear greatest burdens. This work provides policy instructions in mitigating various eco-environmental burdens imposed by livestock production and promoting sustainable agricultural practices.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005263","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-01-08DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005256
Dalai Nasong, Sha Zhou, Kai Kornhuber, Bofu Yu
{"title":"Concurrent Heat Extremes in Relation to Global Warming, High Atmospheric Pressure and Low Soil Moisture in the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Dalai Nasong, Sha Zhou, Kai Kornhuber, Bofu Yu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005256","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005256","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Summer heat extremes increasingly co-occur worldwide, posing disastrous impacts on our society and the environment. However, the spatial pattern and underlying mechanisms of concurrent heat extremes remain unclear. We used a statistical framework to estimate the spatial concurrence strength of heat extremes in the Northern Hemisphere and identified their relationships to global warming, atmospheric circulation, and land-atmosphere feedbacks. Concurrent heat extremes over different regions have significantly increased in the Northern Hemisphere from 1950 to 2023. Moreover, heat extremes show strong spatial concurrence strength, and the driving factors vary geographically. Global warming is responsible for long-term increases in the frequency and strength of concurrent heat extremes, with most pronounced impact in tropical regions. In the absence of warming trends, the temporal and spatial variations in concurrent heat extremes are mainly caused by simultaneous high atmospheric pressure controlled by large-scale circulations, particularly in mid-latitude regions. While low soil moisture enhances regional heat extremes through land-atmosphere feedbacks, it plays a minor role in driving concurrent heat extremes alone but can contribute in combination with high-pressure anomalies. Given the ever-increasing risks of heat extremes, our study underscores the importance of identifying the mechanisms of spatially concurrent heat extremes to improve prediction and mitigation of widespread heatwaves and their adverse impacts on socio-economic sustainability and human well-being.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005256","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-01-08DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004972
B. Bulut, M. Vrac, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré
{"title":"What Will the European Climate Look Like in the Future? A Climate Analog Analysis Accounting for Dependencies Between Variables","authors":"B. Bulut, M. Vrac, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004972","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004972","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Increasing the awareness of society about climate change by using a simplified way for the explanation of its impacts might be one of the key elements to adaptation and mitigation of its possible effects. This study investigates climate analogs, which allow the possibility to find, today, a place on land where climatic conditions are similar to those that a specific area will face in the future. The grid-based calculation of analogs over the selected European domain was carried out using a newly proposed distance between multivariate distributions, the Wasserstein distance, that has never been used so far for climate analog calculations. By working on the whole multivariate distributions, the Wasserstein distance allows us to account for dependencies between the variables of interest and for the shape of their distribution. Its features are compared with the Euclidean and the Mahalanobis distances, which are the most used methods up to now. Multi-model climate analogs analysis is achieved between the reference period 1981–2010 and three future periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, for seasonal temperatures (mean, min, and max) and precipitation, from five different climate models and three different socio-economic scenarios. The agreement between climate models in the location and degree of similarity of the best analogs decreases as warming intensifies and/or as time approaches the end of the century. As the climate warms, the similarity between future and current climatic conditions gradually decreases and the spatial (geographical) distance between a location and its best analog increases.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004972","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-01-04DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005262
Nina Grant, Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Jyoti Singh, Brendan Clark
{"title":"Impacts on Indian Agriculture Due To Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention Using Agroclimatic Indices","authors":"Nina Grant, Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Jyoti Singh, Brendan Clark","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005262","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change poses significant threats to global agriculture, impacting food quantity, quality, and safety. The world is far from meeting crucial climate targets, prompting the exploration of alternative strategies such as stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) to reduce the impacts. This study investigates the potential impacts of SAI on rice and wheat production in India, a nation highly vulnerable to climate change given its substantial dependence on agriculture. We compare the results from the Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection-1.5°C (ARISE-SAI-1.5) experiment, which aims to keep global average surface air temperatures at 1.5°C above preindustrial in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5) global warming scenario. Yield results show ARISE-SAI-1.5 leads to higher production for rainfed rice and wheat. We use 10 agroclimatic indices during the vegetative, reproductive, and ripening stages to evaluate these yield changes. ARISE-SAI-1.5 benefits rainfed wheat yields the most, compared to rice, due to its ability to prevent rising winter and spring temperatures while increasing wheat season precipitation. For rice, SSP2-4.5 leads to many more warm extremes than the control period during all three growth stages and may cause a delay in the monsoon. ARISE-SAI-1.5 largely preserves monsoon rainfall, improving yields for rainfed rice in most regions. Even without the use of SAI, adaptation strategies such as adjusting planting dates could offer partial relief under SSP2-4.5 if it is feasible to adjust established rice-wheat cropping systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005262","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-01-03DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005246
Keer Zhang, Lei Zhao, Keith Oleson, Xinchang “Cathy” Li, Xuhui Lee
{"title":"Enhancing Urban Thermal Environment and Energy Sustainability With Temperature-Adaptive Radiative Roofs","authors":"Keer Zhang, Lei Zhao, Keith Oleson, Xinchang “Cathy” Li, Xuhui Lee","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005246","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Urban overheating presents significant challenges to public health and energy sustainability. Conventional radiative cooling strategies, such as cool roofs with high albedo, lead to undesired winter cooling and increased space heating demand for cities with cold winters, a phenomenon known as heating energy penalty. A novel roof coating with high albedo and temperature-adaptive emissivity (TAE)—low emissivity during cold conditions and high emissivity during hot conditions—has the potential to mitigate winter heating energy penalty. In this study, we implement this roof coating in a global climate model to evaluate its impact on air temperature and building energy demand for space heating and cooling in global cities. Adopting roofs with TAE increases global urban air temperature by up to +0.54°C in the winter (99th percentile; mean change +0.16°C) but has negligible effects on summer urban air temperature (mean change +0.05°C). Combining TAE with high albedo effectively provides summer cooling and does not increase building energy demand in the winter, particularly for mid-latitude cities. Sensitivities of air temperature to changes in emissivity and albedo are associated with local “apparent” net longwave radiation and incoming solar radiation, respectively. We propose a simple parameterization of air temperature responses to emissivity and albedo to facilitate the development of city-specific radiative mitigation strategies. This study emphasizes the necessity of developing mitigation approaches specific to local cloudiness.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005246","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-01-02DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005187
Yavar Pourmohamad, John T. Abatzoglou, Erica Fleishman, Karen C. Short, Jacquelyn Shuman, Amir AghaKouchak, Matthew Williamson, Seyd Teymoor Seydi, Mojtaba Sadegh
{"title":"Inference of Wildfire Causes From Their Physical, Biological, Social and Management Attributes","authors":"Yavar Pourmohamad, John T. Abatzoglou, Erica Fleishman, Karen C. Short, Jacquelyn Shuman, Amir AghaKouchak, Matthew Williamson, Seyd Teymoor Seydi, Mojtaba Sadegh","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005187","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005187","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Effective wildfire prevention includes actions to deliberately target different wildfire causes. However, the cause of an increasing number of wildfires is unknown, hindering targeted prevention efforts. We developed a machine learning model of wildfire ignition cause across the western United States on the basis of physical, biological, social, and management attributes associated with wildfires. Trained on wildfires from 1992 to 2020 with 12 known causes, the overall accuracy of our model exceeded 70% when applied to out-of-sample test data. Our model more accurately separated wildfires ignited by natural versus human causes (93% accuracy), and discriminated among the 11 classes of human-ignited wildfires with 55% accuracy. Our model attributed the greatest percentage of 150,247 wildfires from 1992 to 2020 for which the ignition source was unknown to equipment and vehicle use (21%), lightning (20%), and arson and incendiarism (18%).</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005187","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143110909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2025-01-02DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005287
Renjie Zong, Nufang Fang, Yi Zeng, Xixi Lu, Zhen Wang, Wei Dai, Zhihua Shi
{"title":"Soil Conservation Benefits of Ecological Programs Promote Sustainable Restoration","authors":"Renjie Zong, Nufang Fang, Yi Zeng, Xixi Lu, Zhen Wang, Wei Dai, Zhihua Shi","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005287","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005287","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ecological restoration efforts in less developed regions confront a sustainability challenge due to the undervaluation of their substantive benefits. Soil conservation, as a crucial ecosystem service supporting both ecological and socioeconomic systems in less developed regions, is often overlooked in estimating the benefits of restoration efforts. We introduce a framework that integrates the multi-model approach and scenario analysis on cloud computing platforms to capture the significance of soil conservation benefits by assessing the world's largest restoration programs from China. Our analysis reveals that these restoration programs, with a total investment of $133 billion, have prevented 7.29 ± 1.01 Pg of soil erosion, valued at $243.0 ± 25.9 billion from 2000 to 2019. Notably, two critical programs that synergize forest conservation, cropland conversion, and human well-being in China's less developed regions account for approximately 85% of the soil conservation benefits. Our findings underscore that soil conservation benefits significantly enhance the substantive benefits and prioritization of restoration efforts in less developed regions, reinforcing the potential for global restoration efforts to contribute to a sustainable future.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005287","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143110951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}