Earths Future最新文献_第8页

The Spatial Distribution and Temporal Drivers of Changing Global Fire Regimes: A Coupled Socio-Ecological Modeling Approach

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004770

Oliver Perkins, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Tamsin Edwards, Olivia Haas, James D. A. Millington

{"title":"The Spatial Distribution and Temporal Drivers of Changing Global Fire Regimes: A Coupled Socio-Ecological Modeling Approach","authors":"Oliver Perkins, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Tamsin Edwards, Olivia Haas, James D. A. Millington","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004770","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004770","url":null,"abstract":"The limited capacity of fire-enabled vegetation models to represent human influences on fire regimes is a fundamental challenge in fire science. This limitation places a major constraint on our capacity to understand how vegetation fire may change under future scenarios of climate change and socio-economic development. Here, we address this challenge by presenting a novel integration of two process-based models. The first is the Wildfire Human Agency Model (WHAM!), which draws on agent-based approaches to represent anthropogenic fire use and management. The second is JULES-INFERNO, a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model, which takes a physically grounded approach to the representation of vegetation-fire dynamics. The combined model enables a coupled socio-ecological simulation of historical burned area. We calibrate the combined model using GFED5 burned area data and perform an independent evaluation using MODIS-based fire radiative power observations. Results suggest that as much as half of all global burned area is generated by managed anthropogenic fires—typically small fires that are lit for, and then spread according to, land user objectives. Furthermore, we demonstrate that including representation of managed anthropogenic fires in a coupled socio-ecological simulation improves understanding of the drivers of unmanaged wildfires. For example, we show how vegetation flammability and landscape fragmentation control inter-annual variability and longer-term change in unmanaged fires. Overall, findings presented here indicate that both socio-economic and climate change will be vital in determining the future trajectory of fire on Earth.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004770","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Projecting Multiscale River Flood Changes Across Japan at +2°C and +4°C Climates

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005884

Jiachao Chen, Takahiro Sayama, Masafumi Yamada, Tomohiro Tanaka, Yoshito Sugawara

{"title":"Projecting Multiscale River Flood Changes Across Japan at +2°C and +4°C Climates","authors":"Jiachao Chen, Takahiro Sayama, Masafumi Yamada, Tomohiro Tanaka, Yoshito Sugawara","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005884","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005884","url":null,"abstract":"This study addresses computational challenges in high-resolution, large-domain, process-based flood quantile estimation, focusing on Japan's future flood risks at 150 m resolution. Using the Aggregating Grid Event (AGE) method, the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model, and the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) approach, it incorporates 2,160-year precipitation data from a 5-km dynamically downscaled ensemble (d4PDF DDSJP) across three climate stages (historical, +2°C, +4°C). The AGE method identified critical precipitation events for the flood quantile estimations and the POT method was employed to estimate 100-year discharge (Q100) for over 2.2 million river grid cells. Key findings include: (a) Nationwide, 100-year discharge (Q100) is projected to increase 1.16 times (+2°C) and 1.37 times (+4°C), with equivalent return periods reduced to 45 years (+2°C) and 23 years (+4°C). Northern regions (Hokkaido and Tohoku) are particularly climate-sensitive, exceeding national averages in Q100 increases. (b) Small river basins and transition zones from plains to mountains exhibit higher increase ratios, necessitating targeted flood prevention measures. (c) Flash flood risks are expected to rise, with most national basins seeing flashiness increases of over 10% (+2°C) and 20% (+4°C). Southern Japan faces further flash flood intensification, while Northern Japan under +4°C stage anticipates emerging challenges related to flash floods. The study underscores the urgency of adaptive flood management strategies to mitigate increasing risks, offering a foundation for informed policymaking and public-engaged mitigation. Simulation data opens pathways for further research on cascading disaster scenarios in +2°C and +4°C climates.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005884","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Irreversible Land Water Availability Changes From a Potential ITCZ Shift During Temperature Overshoot

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005787

Norman Julius Steinert, Jörg Schwinger, Robin Chadwick, Jong-Seong Kug, Hanna Lee

{"title":"Irreversible Land Water Availability Changes From a Potential ITCZ Shift During Temperature Overshoot","authors":"Norman Julius Steinert, Jörg Schwinger, Robin Chadwick, Jong-Seong Kug, Hanna Lee","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005787","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005787","url":null,"abstract":"Without rapid emission reduction, it is increasingly likely that global temperatures will overshoot 1.5°C before carbon dioxide removal may help reverse warming. Such temperature overshoots affect the future hydrological cycle, with implications for land water availability. However, the hydrological response to such temperature overshoots is not well understood. Here, we investigate regional and seasonal changes of precipitation minus evaporation (P − E) in an ensemble of Earth system model simulations of temperature overshoot. Most climate models broadly show P − E reversibility after overshoot. However, models exhibiting an irreversible shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the temperature overshoot experience reduced wet-season and enhanced dry-season land water availability in tropical regions, which has long-lasting effects on the amplitude of P − E seasonality after the overshoot, constituting irreversible changes on human timescales. While some regions may experience alleviating seasonal hydrological conditions, others are subject to more intense seasonality. Half a century of CO2-stabilization after the temperature overshoot only halves the legacy effects of the overshoot on land water availability on over 23% of the world population in 12% of the global land area, covering regions of various hydrological regimes. Based on the model ensemble presented here, a strong irreversible shift of the ITCZ after an overshoot is a low-probability but high-impact outcome that would entail long-lasting hydrological changes with consequences for ecosystems and human societies.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005787","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

No Robust Sign of Human Influence in the Unprecedented Atmospheric Circulation of Summer 2018 Over Northern Europe

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006290

C. E. Iles, R. Vautard, M. Vrac

{"title":"No Robust Sign of Human Influence in the Unprecedented Atmospheric Circulation of Summer 2018 Over Northern Europe","authors":"C. E. Iles, R. Vautard, M. Vrac","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006290","url":null,"abstract":"The summer of 2018 was characterized by prolonged heatwaves over Northern Europe, associated with persistent atmospheric blocking, and an unusually northward jet stream location over Scandinavia. Whilst event attribution studies tend to focus on the change in probability or magnitude of the extreme temperatures themselves, we provide context to these studies by examining whether there are human induced trends in the atmospheric circulation that might affect the likelihood of similar extreme circulation patterns and associated heat waves occurring in the future. We examine trends and variability in summer jet latitude, blocking frequency and overall circulation pattern over the Scandinavian sector in a variety of reanalyses and climate model ensembles. Both the number of blocked days, and the average jet location for summer 2018 were unprecedented in the reanalyses, and rare in climate model simulations. We found no robust evidence of past or future externally forced changes in summer blocking frequency over Scandinavia in model simulations, whilst trends in circulation analogs were also largely insignificant. Trends in jet latitude were dependent on the time period examined, models included and other analysis choices. Overall, we found no robust evidence for systematic trends in average or extreme years toward Summer 2018-like conditions for any of the three indices, nor in the frequency of co-occurring extreme northward jet latitude and high blocking frequency. We conclude that Summer 2018s circulation can likely be explained by internal atmospheric variability.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006290","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ecosystem-Scale Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Water Vapor Fluxes From Subtropical Brackish Fishponds: Temporal Variability, Environmental Drivers, and Implications for Nature-Based Climate Solutions

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005277

Jiangong Liu, Suvadip Neogi, Derrick Y. F. Lai

{"title":"Ecosystem-Scale Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Water Vapor Fluxes From Subtropical Brackish Fishponds: Temporal Variability, Environmental Drivers, and Implications for Nature-Based Climate Solutions","authors":"Jiangong Liu, Suvadip Neogi, Derrick Y. F. Lai","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005277","url":null,"abstract":"Coastal wetlands such as mangroves have a great potential in sequestering blue carbon and mitigating future climate change. Yet, these wetlands are being increasingly converted to aquaculture ponds, which could trigger a pulse emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from existing carbon stocks, a loss of opportunity for future carbon sequestration from mangroves, and an additional GHG emission incurred from pond establishment and operation. In this study, we determined the magnitude, temporal variations and environmental drivers of ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and water vapor fluxes from the subtropical brackish fishponds using the eddy covariance technique, and assessed the net carbon impact arising from the conversion of mangroves to fishponds under three conservation scenarios. Our results showed that the brackish fishponds were significant sources of carbon and water, with a mean annual emission of 687.6 ± 83.1 gC m−2 for CO2, 101.5 ± 2.7 gC m−2 for CH4, and 2422.5 ± 48.0 mm for water vapor. Fishpond CH4 and water vapor fluxes exhibited distinct seasonal patterns with higher fluxes in summer. CO2, CH4, and water vapor fluxes were driven predominantly by shortwave radiation, air temperature, and wind speed, respectively. At the current deforestation rate, the global carbon impact arising from mangrove conversion to fishponds could reach 109 Gt CO2-equivalent by 2100. Halting global mangrove conversion to aquaculture ponds by 2030 could reduce the net carbon impact by 90.2 Gt CO2-equivalents by 2100. Thus, preserving coastal wetlands from conversion to aquaculture ponds is among the most effective nature-based climate solutions.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005277","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global Terrestrial Carbon Storage Change Affected by Future Land Dynamics Under Social-Climate Scenarios

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005873

Guangzhao Chen, Xiaoping Liu, Xia Li

{"title":"Global Terrestrial Carbon Storage Change Affected by Future Land Dynamics Under Social-Climate Scenarios","authors":"Guangzhao Chen, Xiaoping Liu, Xia Li","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005873","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005873","url":null,"abstract":"In the current efforts to address global climate change, terrestrial carbon storage is a significant source of carbon sinks. Moreover, with the progress of urbanization, changes in land cover have led to increasingly unavoidable changes in terrestrial carbon storage. However, there is still a lack of research on the impact of land cover change on global terrestrial carbon storage under the latest IPCC scenarios. Therefore, this study utilizes the InVEST model to examine the impact of future land dynamics on global terrestrial carbon storage under various SSP-RCP scenarios from 2015 to 2100. The results reveal significant regional differences and trends. For instance, under the SSP4-3.4 scenario, global terrestrial carbon storage loss could reach up to 30.2 PgC due to land conversions, such as the transformation of tropical rainforests into bioenergy crops in Indonesia. The social cost of offsetting terrestrial carbon loss could range from trillions to tens of trillions of dollars in various scenarios. Additionally, our analysis indicates that urban expansion generally reduces carbon storage, but strategic urban planning can mitigate this impact. In ecological protected areas and biodiversity hotspots, we observed a polarized trend: areas with increasing carbon storage are experiencing growth at a faster rate than historically, while areas with decreasing carbon storage are facing accelerated losses. This disparity underscores the necessity for targeted conservation efforts. In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of sound land management and policy interventions in mitigating terrestrial carbon storage losses, protecting ecologically sensitive areas, and achieving climate goals.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005873","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Inorganic Nitrogen Nutrition in Boreal Plants Is Underestimated and Insensitive to Environmental Changes 北方植物的无机氮营养被低估且对环境变化不敏感

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005723

Chong-Juan Chen, Xue-Yan Liu, Chao-Chen Hu, Shi-Qi Xu, Xian-Wei Wang, Rong Mao, Keisuke Koba

{"title":"Inorganic Nitrogen Nutrition in Boreal Plants Is Underestimated and Insensitive to Environmental Changes","authors":"Chong-Juan Chen, Xue-Yan Liu, Chao-Chen Hu, Shi-Qi Xu, Xian-Wei Wang, Rong Mao, Keisuke Koba","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005723","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005723","url":null,"abstract":"Although more and more evidences on plant uptake of soil extractable inorganic N (EIN) challenged the traditional viewpoint of soil extractable organic N (EON) as the dominant (averaging 63 ± 6%) N source to boreal plants, relative contributions between EIN and EON to boreal plants and their environmental responses remain unclear. By investigating N concentrations and natural N isotopes in soils and plants, we evaluated and compared contributions of soil EIN and EON to plants of six same genera between Alaskan tundra (AT) with lower mean annual temperature (MAT, −6.8°C) and atmospheric N deposition (AND) (AND, 0.4 kg-N/ha/yr) and northeastern China peatlands (NECP) with higher MAT (−3.3°C) and AND (5.1 kg-N/ha/yr). Soil EIN was three times less than EON, but it contributed c.a. 54 ± 7% of N among studied plants. In NECP, higher MAT and AND caused more increments (by three times) in soil EON than EIN, but soil EIN's contributions to plants did not differ between AT (52 ± 6%) and NECP (57 ± 7%). We concluded that soil EIN's contributions to boreal plants are underestimated (by 17%) and insensitive to concurring warmer climates and higher N deposition. These findings highlighted the importance of soil EIN nutrition to boreal plants and suggested potentially more EON losses under projected warming climate and increasing N pollution, which are useful for evaluating responses of N dynamics in boreal ecosystems to global changes.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005723","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143939226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Prediction of Future Chlorophyll-a Concentrations in Large Eutrophic Shallow Lakes Under Multiple Stressors 多种胁迫条件下大型富营养化浅湖未来叶绿素a浓度的预测

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005293

Zhen Wei, Yanxin Yu, Yujun Yi

{"title":"Prediction of Future Chlorophyll-a Concentrations in Large Eutrophic Shallow Lakes Under Multiple Stressors","authors":"Zhen Wei, Yanxin Yu, Yujun Yi","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005293","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005293","url":null,"abstract":"Assessing future chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) changes is crucial for developing effective lake management programs. Future assessments should integrate socio-economic and climatic factors, including extreme climate impacts. However, such assessments are lacking. This study developed a novel framework and integrated model to analyze Chl-a response in Chaohu Lake to climate (e.g., precipitation, temperature, and wind) and socio-economic (e.g., population, fertilizer application, and livestock farming). The results indicated that by around 2050, the Chl-a concentration would change by −6.5% to −0.1% compared to around 2020. While socio-economic and climatic factors significantly altered nitrogen and phosphorus loading, exogenous loading had a minimal effect on Chl-a due to high endogenous releases. The decrease in Chl-a is mainly due to the increase in precipitation. Chl-a reduction was primarily driven by increased precipitation (0.6%–12.9%), leading to −9.4% to −4.4% Chl-a changes. The runoff increase also provided an opportunity to treat the heavily polluted lake area. Air temperature increases of 5.1%–9.2% resulted in Chl-a increases of 0.9%–3.1%. On annual scales the effects of precipitation and temperature were mainly due to changes in mean values. The effects of variability were significant at seasonal scales, for example, lower spring temperatures favored a decrease in summer Chl-a. There was uncertainty about the impact of future wind speeds. This study emphasized the importance of comprehensively quantifying the impacts of external pressures in lake water quality assessment and provided a reference and pathway support for the assessment and management of large, shallow lakes.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005293","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143939227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Transformation in the Forest Ecosystem of Northeastern China Driven by Human Factors Over the Past 1600 Years 1600年来人为因素驱动下东北森林生态系统的变迁

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005661

Yong Luo, Xin Zhou, Sihan Sun, Xiaoyan Liu, Shiwei Jiang, Anze Chen, Xuanqiao Liu, Hongfei Zhao, Min Ding, Liqiang Xu, Xiaolin Zhang, Zhuoya Zhang

{"title":"Transformation in the Forest Ecosystem of Northeastern China Driven by Human Factors Over the Past 1600 Years","authors":"Yong Luo, Xin Zhou, Sihan Sun, Xiaoyan Liu, Shiwei Jiang, Anze Chen, Xuanqiao Liu, Hongfei Zhao, Min Ding, Liqiang Xu, Xiaolin Zhang, Zhuoya Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005661","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005661","url":null,"abstract":"Human-driven degradation of forest ecosystems has profoundly altered land cover, disrupted ecosystem functions, and contributed to climate variability. Understanding long-term changes in forest composition and resilience is crucial for developing effective, evidence-based restoration strategies. This study presents a 1,600-year paleoecological reconstruction of forest dynamics in northeastern China, based on sedimentary pollen records from Sihailongwan Maar Lake. The findings reveal that from 480 to 1930 CE, natural factors primarily governed forest dynamics, allowing for a stable adaptation of mixed coniferous and broadleaved species to climate fluctuations. However, since 1930 CE, human activities have become the dominant force, leading to significant shifts in forest structure, reduced coniferous populations, and a substantial decline in ecological resilience. This study provides an ecological baseline based on naturally driven forest dynamics, offering essential guidance for restoring a resilient mixed coniferous-broadleaved forest structure. Furthermore, these recommendations emphasize the importance of strengthening forest protection, limiting logging, and engaging local communities in conservation efforts. However, as global warming continues to accelerate, the ecological baseline derived from historical dynamics may become less applicable. This necessitates the establishment of new baselines that take future ecological changes into account.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005661","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143939228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatially and Seasonally Differentiated Response of Soil Moisture Droughts to Climate Change in Germany 德国土壤水分干旱对气候变化的空间和季节差异响应

IF 7.3 1区地球科学

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005495

Friedrich Boeing, Sabine Attinger, Thorsten Wagener, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Stephan Thober, Julian Schlaak, Sebastian Müller, Claas Teichmann, Rohini Kumar, Andreas Marx

{"title":"Spatially and Seasonally Differentiated Response of Soil Moisture Droughts to Climate Change in Germany","authors":"Friedrich Boeing, Sabine Attinger, Thorsten Wagener, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Stephan Thober, Julian Schlaak, Sebastian Müller, Claas Teichmann, Rohini Kumar, Andreas Marx","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005495","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005495","url":null,"abstract":"Global warming is altering soil moisture (SM) droughts in Europe with a strong drying trend projected in the Mediterranean and wetting trends projected in Scandinavia. Central Europe, including Germany, lies in a transitional zone showing weaker and diverging change signals exposing the region to uncertainties. The recent extreme drought years in Germany, which resulted in multi-sectoral impacts accounting to combined drought and heat damages of 35 billion Euros and large scale forest losses, underline the relevance of studying future changes in SM droughts. To analyze the projected SM drought changes and associated uncertainties in Germany, we utilize a large ensemble of 57 bias-adjusted and spatially disaggregated regional climate model simulations to run the hydrologic model mHM at a high spatial resolution of approximately 1.2 km. We show that projections of future changes in soil moisture droughts over Germany depend on the emission scenario, the soil depth and the timing during the vegetation growing period. Most robust and widespread increases in soil moisture drought intensities are projected for upper soil layers in the late growing season (July–September) under the high emission scenario. There are greater uncertainties in the changes in soil moisture droughts in the early vegetation growing period (April–June). We find stronger imprints of changes in meteorological drivers controlling the spatial disparities of SM droughts than regional diversity in physio-geographic landscape properties. Our study provides nuanced insights into SM drought changes for an important climatic transition zone and is therefore relevant for regions with similar transitions.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005495","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143926001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0