Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Drivers of CMIP Tropical Pacific Warming Pattern Diversity","authors":"V. Danielli,&nbsp;M. Lengaigne,&nbsp;K. Sadhvi,&nbsp;S. Gopika,&nbsp;J. Vialard","doi":"10.1029/2025EF005938","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF005938","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Anthropogenic changes in sea surface temperature relative to the tropical mean (relative SST) play a pivotal role in influencing atmospheric stability and circulation. In the tropical Pacific, CMIP5/6 multi-model mean (MMM) projections by the end of the 21st century show a southeastern relative cooling and a reduced equatorial SST gradient, although individual models exhibit considerable diversity. Using a simplified heat budget framework, we analyze the processes driving these relative SST changes across 63 CMIP5/6 models under historical and most pessimistic future scenarios. In the southeastern tropical Pacific, MMM relative SST cooling is driven by intensified winds that enhance latent heat flux, with inter-model diversity explained by variations in clouds and winds. Conversely, the MMM equatorial SST gradient reduction arises from reduced evaporative cooling efficiency in the climatologically cold eastern Pacific. A heat budget covariance analysis reveals that inter-model diversity in equatorial Pacific warming is predominantly driven by ocean dynamical processes, challenging previous studies that emphasized cloud feedback mechanisms. Clouds instead mitigate inter-model spread. The inter-model spread in ocean dynamics is linked to two factors: trade wind relaxation and the cold tongue bias. Stronger trade wind relaxation amplifies western Pacific warming, while a weaker cold tongue indicates a less effective ocean thermostat, enhancing eastern Pacific warming. During the present-day period, only a subset of models captures the observed equatorial SST gradient strengthening, but the mechanisms vary across these models, complicating the identification of robust drivers of this observed trend.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF005938","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144740524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Five Lessons for Closing the Last Mile: How to Make Climate Decision Support Actionable","authors":"K. Baylis,&nbsp;E. C. Lentz,&nbsp;K. Caylor,&nbsp;M. Gu,&nbsp;C. Gundersen,&nbsp;T. Haigh,&nbsp;M. Hayes,&nbsp;H. Lahr,&nbsp;D. Maxwell,&nbsp;C. Funk","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005799","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005799","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate shocks are increasing, threatening global agricultural production and food security. But a more extreme climate allows for improved predictions and enables advisory services that allow farmers, ranchers and consumers to respond effectively. To date, there is limited uptake of forecasts. How can we make sure these predictions are valued by and valuable for users of agro-climatic forecasts? Over the past two years, we held over 40 interviews with food system stakeholders to identify their needs and shortcomings of existing decision support. In this Commentary, we combine these findings and nascent modeling efforts with existing literature to characterize five lessons for improving the uptake and utilization of predictive tools for last mile users in the agrifood system. Given the explosion of machine learning prediction efforts across many applications, we believe our lessons are broadly applicable to forecasting models intended for decision support. Improved accuracy alone does not necessarily lead to improved decision support, and the trust required to motivate action.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005799","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144751501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating Historical Crop Rotation Changes Into Soil Organic Matter Mapping in the Cropland of Southeastern China","authors":"Furong Zhou,&nbsp;Jie Xue,&nbsp;Zheng Wang,&nbsp;Wuze Jin,&nbsp;Zhou Shi,&nbsp;Qiangyi Yu,&nbsp;Lianqing Zhou,&nbsp;Songchao Chen","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006117","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006117","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The prediction of cropland soil organic matter (SOM) is crucial for understanding ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. However, the influence of historical agricultural management practices on soil properties is often overlooked in current SOM digital mapping studies. Crop rotation, a critical agricultural practice, significantly influences the spatiotemporal dynamics of SOM. This study investigates the cumulative effects of dynamic crop rotation changes on SOM using digital soil mapping in a multi-cropping region in southeastern China, where 202 topsoil samples were collected. Annual crop rotations from 2019 to 2023 were mapped by integrating Sentinel-2 data with expert knowledge, enabling the extraction of historical crop rotation changes. The added value of these legacy changes in SOM digital mapping was assessed by combining traditional environmental covariates. Results showed that integrating historical crop rotation changes significantly enhanced SOM prediction accuracy, with the coefficient of determination (R²) increased by 14.86% and the root mean square error reduced by 26.43% compared to models using traditional covariates and annual crop rotations alone. Notably, five-year changes in crop rotation emerged as the dominant factor in SOM prediction. The spatial distribution of SOM exhibited distinct heterogeneity, with high-value regions primarily located in regions under relatively stable crop rotation change frequency. In conclusion, this study underscores the importance and effectiveness of incorporating historical crop rotation changes into SOM mapping. The findings highlight the impact of historical agricultural practices on SOM distribution and provide a scientific foundation for enhancing agricultural strategies that promote ecosystem services.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006117","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144740392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decarbonizing China's Freight Sector: Spatial Impacts of Carbon Taxation on Trade Patterns and Production Allocation in a CGE Framework","authors":"Xian Wang,&nbsp;Junfeng Liu,&nbsp;Huihuang Wu,&nbsp;Xiurong Hu,&nbsp;Yuqing Wang,&nbsp;Ying Liu,&nbsp;Jianmin Ma,&nbsp;Shu Tao","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006300","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006300","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Reducing emissions in the freight sector is a key focus in China's pursuit of sustainability. Previous studies have not adequately addressed the complex interplay between freight activity, commodity movements, and geographical distances in evaluating mitigation policies. Here, we developed a new distance-based computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to address the freight costs between regions, enabling a detailed analysis of the spatial trade patterns, production relocation, and environmental impacts of different carbon tax scenarios on the freight sector. We found that a substantial carbon tax collection (700 CNY/ton CO₂ by 2025) could reduce China's total freight turnover by 1.60% and cut industry-wide CO₂ emission by approximately 200 million tons (accounting for 1.8% of total CO₂ emissions in China). The response to freight carbon tax varies with distance: longer bilateral trade distances experience a sharper decline in freight volume, while shorter intra-provincial and neighboring interprovincial trade becomes more prosperous. Production activity tends to relocate to regions closer to customers and suppliers under the carbon tax, and each additional 1,000 km trade distance is associated with 0.3–1.2% reduction in provincial production. By integrating a spatial dimension into a CGE framework, our study elucidates how freight cost redistributes policy costs and benefits across regions, offering a more nuanced foundation for the design of targeted, regionally balanced carbon tax policies in China's freight decarbonization strategy.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006300","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144716859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Urbanization Intensified the Trade-Off Between Food Security and Water Quality Security in the Yangtze River Delta","authors":"Fei Xue,&nbsp;Yi'na Hu,&nbsp;Tao Hu,&nbsp;Rui Zhou,&nbsp;Qun Ma,&nbsp;Xuening Fang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006382","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006382","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rapid urbanization, while enhancing the living standards, posed significant challenges to food security (FS) and water quality security (WQS). Previous research mainly focused on assessing FS and WQS, remaining their trade-off and driving pathway unclear. Taking Yangtze River Delta as study area, this study quantified FS and WQS from 2000 to 2020, and explored their trade-off and driving pathways at both county and regional scales. The results indicated that FS and WQS showed opposite spatial patterns, while both of them experienced significant declining trends across county and regional scales. Although both synergy potential and trade-off intensity showed increasing trends, the mitigation of FS-WQS trade-off remained challenging due to the substantially greater rise in trade-off intensity compared to synergy potential. “Win-win” combinations were identified with high FS, high WQS and the lowest opportunity cost. Urbanization, especially urban expansion and population growth, significantly intensified the trade-off by reducing food production while increasing demands for both food and water quality. This study finally established a conceptual framework for characteristics and driving mechanisms of FS, WQS and their trade-off at different urbanization stages, offering scientific insights for sustainable development in rapidly urbanizing regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006382","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144716846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sustained Green Manure-Rice Rotations Can Mitigate Methane Emissions by Enhancing Microbial Methane Oxidation in Southern China","authors":"Hao Liang,&nbsp;Jin Fu,&nbsp;Guopeng Zhou,&nbsp;Jiguang Feng,&nbsp;Qiuan Zhu,&nbsp;Pete Smith,&nbsp;Benoît Gabrielle,&nbsp;Tao Li,&nbsp;Susanne Schmidt,&nbsp;Changxu Xu,&nbsp;Jia Liu,&nbsp;Jun Nie,&nbsp;Ji Wu,&nbsp;Mingjian Geng,&nbsp;Fei Wang,&nbsp;Yuting Liang,&nbsp;Weidong Cao,&nbsp;Feng Zhou","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005698","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005698","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Green manure (GM) enhances the ecological services in agricultural ecosystems, including soil health and carbon sequestration. However, its effect on regional methane (CH₄) emissions from paddy fields is unclear. Here we clarify the impacts of GM rotation by combining process-based modeling with microbial gene abundance information and coordinated distributed observations at 14 sites in southern China. We found that GM management, including application rate and rotation year, mainly affects CH₄ emissions in GM-rice systems by impacting soil biotic factors, which explain 78.4% of the variation (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.001). The most influential factor is the ratio of soil CH₄ production to oxidation gene abundances (<i>R</i>² = 0.510; <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), which decreases with GM rotation year due to increased activity of methane-oxidizing soil microbes (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), indicating that CH₄ emissions from GM-rice systems decrease with increased GM rotation year. By incorporating these microbial mechanisms as quantitative parameters in process-based model, we project that approximately 76% of the paddy rice areas in southern China, which have relatively low GM biomass and baseline CH₄ emissions, can achieve reductions in CH₄ emissions through nearly 15 years of GM crop rotation. This study indicates that CH₄ emissions from GM-rice rotations with appropriate GM application rate over the long term will not significantly increase, resolving the contradictions in previous research.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005698","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144716845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Heat Risk Interdependencies in the UK: Implications for Adaptation","authors":"Sara Mehryar,&nbsp;Candice Howarth,&nbsp;Declan Conway","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005797","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF005797","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, yet many countries remain inadequately prepared to manage their impacts. Existing heat risk plans and responses often fail to account for the complex interdependencies among the various causes and impact pathways of heatwaves. Effective planning requires a system-level understanding of these interdependencies to identify strategic entry points for action. This paper employs a participatory system mapping approach to explore the interconnections among causes, impacts, and response actions during the UK heatwave events of summer 2022. Cognitive maps were developed shortly after the events, incorporating input from 38 stakeholders across sectors involved in the heatwave response. These maps informed a forensic disaster analysis designed to provide a holistic understanding of the heatwave's causes, impacts, and adaptation measures. By analyzing the interdependencies among these factors, we identified cascading effects and amplifiers that significantly intensified heat risk in the UK. Notably, we find that the primary heatwave impacts were often indirect, emerging or worsening due to cascading effects such as wildfires, drought, transportation disruptions, and the overburdening of first responders. In many cases, adaptation measures were reactive, addressing isolated, short-term impacts, while proactive, system-level approaches tackling interconnected impacts and root causes, such as vulnerable buildings, at-risk populations, and behavioral barriers, were largely absent. Additionally, we found notable variations in heat risk perceptions among groups. While individual sectors displayed a limited understanding of the broader heat risk system, a system-level perspective emerged through the aggregation of cognitive maps. The implications for adaptation research and policy are discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005797","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144681396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Scale Intercomparison of Critical Soil Moisture Estimation Pathways and Their Influence on Hydrological Regime Dynamics and Land-Atmosphere Interactions","authors":"Sandipan Paul,&nbsp;Andrew F. Feldman,&nbsp;L. Karthikeyan","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006194","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006194","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Hydrological regimes are fundamental for analyzing land-atmosphere (LA) interactions. These regimes are delineated into water- and energy-limited regime by estimating their critical soil moisture &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mfenced&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;θ&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;∗&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mfenced&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $left({theta }^{ast }right)$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; threshold using the evaporative fraction &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;E&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;F&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $(EF)$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;, temporal rate of soil moisture &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;θ&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $(theta )$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; drying &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;d&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;θ&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;/&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;d&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;t&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $(dtheta /dt)$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;, and diurnal soil temperature range &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mfenced&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;d&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;T&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;soil&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mfenced&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $left(d{T}_{text{soil}}right)$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;. However, the impact of inconsistencies stemming from &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;θ&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;∗&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${theta }^{ast }$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; on our understanding of LA feedbacks has not yet been examined. The present work, for the first time, conducts a comprehensive intercomparison of &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 ","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006194","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144688015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adjusting the Main Cropping Types in Mollisol Regions Could Improve the Net Primary Productivity of Low-Producing Areas by 20%–30% Under Future Climate Change","authors":"Yilin Bao,&nbsp;Xiangtian Meng,&nbsp;Huanjun Liu,&nbsp;Mingchang Wang,&nbsp;Fengmei Yao,&nbsp;Abdul Mounem Mouazen","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006074","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EF006074","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rationalizing site-specific crop types is an effective strategy for ensuring food security under climate change. This study employed environmental covariates representing climate, soil, and vegetation, combined with a hybrid convolutional neural network - Long Short-term Memory-self-attention (CNN-LSTM-SA) model to predict net primary productivity (NPP) of the Northeast China (NEC) and the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) Mollisol regions. The analysis covered the periods from 2001 to 2020, and 2021 to 2040 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP245 and SSP585. Subsequently, areas requiring crop type adjustments were identified, and appropriate crops were assigned to each growth site. Our results elucidate that: (a) During 2021–2040, a general increase in temperature and minor fluctuations in precipitation were observed across the study area. In the NEC, crop NPP initially increases before decreasing, whereas in the MRB, it consistently decreases. (b) Both vegetation and soil covariates explained 75.6% of NPP variability in the NEC, while in the MRB, climate factors, particularly precipitation, accounted for 18.4% of the variability. (c) The proportion of area requiring adjustment in the NEC ranged from 4.45% to 5.13% (SSP245) to 5.05%–5.77% (SSP585), while in the MRB, it varied from 4.92% to 7.54% (SSP245) to 6.49%–9.10% (SSP585), suggesting a necessity for more substantial cropping type adjustments under the SSP585 climate scenario. (d) In the NEC, the area cultivated with corn, soybean, and other crops will decrease, while rice cultivation will increase. Conversely, a decrease in wheat and pasture, and an increase in corn and soybean cultivation are suggested in the MRB. (e) Following crop type adjustments, the average NPP enhancements for corn, soybean, rice, and other crops in unsuitable areas of the NEC were 22.85%, 22.2%, 17.35%, and 20.5%, respectively, In the MRB, the average NPP enhancements for corn, soybean, wheat, and pasture were 28.5%, 26.9%, 32.4%, and 21.1%, respectively. Our research provides valuable insights into predicting future NPP changes, and develops effective crop adjustment strategies to address global food security challenges.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006074","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144672729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding Rural-to-Urban Water Transfers: An Agent-Based and Input-Output Modeling Approach","authors":"Maria Amaya,&nbsp;Chung-Yi Lin,&nbsp;Landon Marston","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004984","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024EF004984","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Growing societal water demands and decreasing water supplies are straining the water available for communities in many basins. Once water supplies have been fully allocated and developing new water supplies is infeasible, the best option to meet growing water demands is often to reallocate water from rural agricultural water uses. Yet, the dynamics and implications of these rural-to-urban water transfers are poorly understood. Here, we integrate an agent-based model with an input-output model to capture the behavior of individual irrigators and examine how their water transfer decisions propagate through the broader rural economy and shape social dynamics. As a demonstration of our model, the rural community represents Alamosa County while the city represents the city of Denver, both located in Colorado, Unites States. We find that the greatest long-term decline in crop water use corresponds with higher city growth rates while the greatest short-term decline corresponds with larger farmer discount rates. As farmers sell their water rights to the City, economic activity from the crop production sector declines, causing unemployment in the crop production sector to increase and demand from the service sectors to decrease, which results in output declining in these economic sectors as well. Thus, a negative impact on the agricultural sector will cause some negative impact on other economic sectors, such as professional, health care, and recreational services. This research brings new insights that can be used to evaluate the socio-economic impacts of water transfers and shape policy to minimize potential negative externalities associated with water transfers.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004984","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}