Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Learning About Sea Level Rise Uncertainty Improves Coastal Adaptation Decisions","authors":"Vanessa Völz,&nbsp;Jochen Hinkel,&nbsp;Sunna Kupfer,&nbsp;Leigh R. MacPherson,&nbsp;Carl Jacob Wulff Norrby","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004704","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004704","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Adaptive decision-making allows decision-makers to plan long-term coastal infrastructure under uncertain sea level rise projections. To date, economic assessments of adaptive decision-making that take into account future learning about sea level rise uncertainty are rare and the existing ones have relied on simple quantification of future learning not validated against sea level science. To address this gap, we develop an economic adaptive decision-making framework that takes into account future learning about sea level rise uncertainty and apply it to a coastal case study in Lübeck, Germany, to answer the question of how adaptation to sea level rise can be improved through adaptive adaptation pathways as opposed to non-adaptive pathways. To address this question, we use a Markov decision process to formulate the stochastic optimization problem. We quantify future learning about sea level rise uncertainty through sea level rise learning scenarios based on and validated against the latest scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our case study results show that the city of Lübeck is currently under-protected against storm surges and that immediate adaptation actions are advisable in the face of future sea level rise. We find that adaptive adaptation pathways, in contrast to non-adaptive pathways, generate sea level rise thresholds for adaptation actions that are similar across climate change scenarios and can reduce expected costs up to 1.8%.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004704","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"High-Resolution Modeling and Projecting Local Dynamics of Differential Vulnerability to Urban Heat Stress","authors":"I. Marginean,&nbsp;J. Crespo Cuaresma,&nbsp;R. Hoffmann,&nbsp;R. Muttarak,&nbsp;J. Gao,&nbsp;Anne Sophie Daloz","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004431","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004431","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change-induced heat stress has significant effects on human health, and is influenced by a wide variety of factors. Most assessments of future heat-related risks however are based on coarse resolution projections of heat hazards and overlook the contribution of relevant factors other than climate change to the negative impacts on health. Research highlights sociodemographic disparities related to heat stress vulnerability, especially among older adults, women and individuals with low socioeconomic status, leading to higher morbidity and mortality rates. There is thus an urgent need for detailed, local information on demographic characteristics underlying vulnerability with refined spatial resolution. This study aims to address the research gaps by presenting a new population projection exercise at high-resolution based on the Bayesian modeling framework for the case study of Madrid, using demographic data under the scenarios compatible with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We examine the spatial and temporal distribution of population subgroups at the intra-urban level within Madrid. Our findings reveal a concentration of vulnerable populations, as measured by their age, sex and educational attainment level in some of the city's most disadvantaged neighborhoods. These vulnerable clusters are projected to widen in the future unless a sustainable trajectory is realized, driving vulnerability dynamics toward a more uniform and resilient change. These results can guide local adaptation efforts and support climate justice initiatives to protect vulnerable communities in urban environments.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004431","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Terrestrial Carbon Sink and Clean Air Co-Benefits From China's Carbon Neutrality Policy","authors":"Lingfeng Li,&nbsp;Zilin Wang,&nbsp;Bo Qiu,&nbsp;Xin Huang,&nbsp;Weidong Guo,&nbsp;Xin Miao,&nbsp;Siwen Zhao,&nbsp;Jiuyi Chen,&nbsp;Aijun Ding","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004631","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As the world's largest carbon emitter, China has been confronting the dual challenge of climate change and air pollution. China's quest for reducing carbon emissions will promisingly benefit the air quality, yet its impact on carbon sinks remains unclear. Here, we assess the effect of China's clean air actions and carbon neutrality policy on air quality and its associated co-benefits for terrestrial carbon sinks by integrating multiple observations and numerical modeling. We find a quadratic response of plant photosynthesis to aerosol loading due to trade-offs between diffuse fertilization effect and light limitations. The estimations show that China's air pollution suppresses terrestrial carbon uptake through aerosol-induced light limitations, leading to a 7.3% decrease in plant productivity in the 2010s. In the context of carbon neutrality pledge, the associated aerosol reductions tend to alleviate the suppression and produce an additional CO₂ removal of 0.39 GtCO₂ year⁻¹. Our results uncover the enhanced terrestrial carbon sinks by aerosol mitigation, highlighting the synergy between carbon neutrality and clean air.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004631","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shaping the Coast: Accounting for the Human Wildcard in Projections of Future Change","authors":"Erika E. Lentz,&nbsp;Gabrielle Wong-Parodi,&nbsp;Sara Zeigler,&nbsp;Renee C. Collini,&nbsp;Margaret L. Palmsten,&nbsp;Davina Passeri","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004504","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Coastal change and evolution are the product of physical drivers (e.g., waves) tightly coupled with human behavior. As climate change impacts intensify, demand is increasing for information on where, when, and how coastal areas may change in the future. Although considerable research investments have been made in understanding the physical drivers and processes that modify and shape coastal environments, many do not account for human behavior, compromising the accuracy of comprehensive future change predictions. We outline four social science approaches—historic case studies, simulations, longitudinal studies, and longitudinal studies supported by experimental data—that can be coupled with physical change information to support transdisciplinary understanding of future change. A fundamental need for each approach is more and better empirical data to better gauge human behavior. In addition, foundational investments in transdisciplinary collaboration help research teams support the integration of these approaches.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004504","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Permafrost Degradation Induces the Abrupt Changes of Vegetation NDVI in the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Yanpeng Yang,&nbsp;Xufeng Wang,&nbsp;Tonghong Wang","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004309","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Permafrost, widely distributed in the Northern Hemisphere, plays a vital role in regulating heat and moisture cycles within ecosystems. In the last four decades, due to global warming, permafrost degradation has accelerated significantly in high latitudes and altitudes. However, the impact of permafrost degradation on vegetation remains poorly understood to date. Based on active layer thickness (ALT) monitoring data, meteorological data and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, we found that most ALT-monitored sites in the Northern Hemisphere show an increasing trend in NDVI and ALT. This suggests an overall increase in NDVI from 1980 to 2021 while permafrost degradation has been occurring. Permafrost degradation positively influences NDVI growth, with the intensity of the effects varying across land cover types and permafrost regions. Furthermore, based on Mann-Kendall trend test, we detected abrupt changes in NDVI and environmental factors, further confirming that there is a strong consistency between the abrupt changes of ALT and NDVI, and the consistency between the abrupt change events of ALT and NDVI is stronger than that of air temperature and precipitation. These findings work toward a better comprehending of permafrost effects on vegetation growth in the context of climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004309","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement in Deep Water Formation Regions Under Low and High Emission Pathways","authors":"Tanvi Nagwekar,&nbsp;Cara Nissen,&nbsp;Judith Hauck","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004213","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) is an ocean-based Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) method to mitigate climate change. Studies to characterize regional differences in OAE efficiencies and biogeochemical effects are still sparse. As subduction regions play a pivotal role for anthropogenic carbon uptake and centennial storage, we here evaluate OAE efficiencies in the subduction regions of the Southern Ocean, the Northwest Atlantic, and the Norwegian-Barents Sea region. Using the ocean biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1-REcoM3, we simulate continuous OAE globally and in the subduction regions under high (SSP3-7.0) and low (SSP1-2.6) emission scenarios. The OAE efficiency calculated by two different metrics is higher (by 8%–30%) for SSP3-7.0 than for SSP1-2.6 due to a lower buffer factor in a high-&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;C&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;O&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${mathrm{C}mathrm{O}}_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; world. All subduction regions show a CDR potential (0.23–0.31; PgC &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;C&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;O&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${mathrm{C}mathrm{O}}_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; uptake per Pg alkaline material) consistent with global OAE for both emission scenarios. Calculating the efficiency as the ratio of excess dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) to excess alkalinity shows that the Southern Ocean and the Northwest Atlantic are as efficient as the global ocean (0.79–0.85), while the Norwegian-Barents Sea region has a lower efficiency (0.65–0.75). The subduction regions store a fraction of excess carbon below 1 km that is 1.9 times higher than the global ocean. The excess surface alkalinity and thus &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;C&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;O&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${mathrm{C}mathrm{O}}_{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; uptake and storage follow the mixed-layer depth seasonality, with the majority of the excess &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;C&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;O&lt;/","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004213","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projecting Future Mercury Emissions From Global Biofuel Combustion Under the Carbon Neutrality Target","authors":"Tengjiao Wang,&nbsp;Yu Xin,&nbsp;Huarui Du,&nbsp;Can Cui,&nbsp;Jiashuo Li,&nbsp;Xi Liu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004917","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004917","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Biomass plays a crucial role in the low-carbon energy transition, with a projected contribution of 18.7% to the global energy supply by 2050. However, biofuel combustion has been a notable source of toxic mercury emissions, yet the future trends and distribution of the emissions remain inadequately understood. Here, we projected biofuel combustion under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using the Global Change Assessment Model and assessed associated mercury emissions in cooking, heating, and power generation over 2020–2050, aligning with the carbon neutrality target. Our analysis reveals that global biofuel mercury emissions are projected to be 9.90–18.40 tons by 2050, compared to the annual emissions of 13.89 tons in 2020. Notably, a substantial increase in emissions from power generation is expected, escalating from 0.57 tons in 2020 to 4.69–8.27 tons by 2050, with China and Southeast Asia emerging as primary contributors. Conversely, mercury emissions from cooking and heating are expected to decrease from 13.32 tons in 2020 to 4.40–11.53 tons by 2050, except in Africa under SSP2, where the emissions may increase from 5.91 to 6.69 tons. Our findings provide a scientific basis for policies aimed at achieving carbon neutrality targets while adhering to the Minamata Convention on Mercury.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004917","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reconstruction of the Hydro-Thermal Behavior of Regulated River Networks of the Columbia River Basin Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Data-Driven Techniques","authors":"G. K. Darkwah,&nbsp;Faisal Hossain,&nbsp;Victoria Tchervenski,&nbsp;Gordon Holtgrieve,&nbsp;David Graves,&nbsp;Charles Seaton,&nbsp;Sanchit Minocha,&nbsp;Pritam Das,&nbsp;Shahzaib Khan,&nbsp;Sarath Suresh","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004815","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004815","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The use of satellite-based thermal infrared remote sensing has facilitated the assessment of surface water temperature on a large scale. However, the inherent limitations of this remote sensing technique make it difficult to assess rivers unless ambient conditions are cloud-free, devoid of steep terrain and the rivers are at least 60 m wide. To address these challenges that limit the spatiotemporal continuity of satellite-based hydro-thermal data, we harnessed the extensive coverage from the Landsat missions' thermal infrared sensors and data-driven techniques to estimate surface water temperature of rivers. Out of the tested data-driven techniques, we selected the Random Forest Regressor as our prime non-linear approach for estimation of surface water temperature in rivers. Using the selected technique, proposed as THORR (<b>T</b>hermal <b>H</b>istory of <b>R</b>egulated <b>R</b>ivers), we successfully reconstructed a multi-decadal, continuous spatiotemporal surface water temperature record for regulated rivers in the Columbia River Basin. Using 42 years of data, the surface water temperature could be predicted on average with 0.71° C of absolute error regardless of the dam's potential thermal influence in the downstream reaches. The reconstructed hydro-thermal behavior generated from THORR revealed a long-term downstream warming trend along the Columbia River. The open-source THORR tool can be extended to any river system around the world that is not gauged with in-situ temperature measurements for the reconstruction of hydro-thermal behavior.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004815","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing Optimum Temperature of Vegetation Activity Over the Past Four Decades","authors":"Yiheng Wang,&nbsp;Sangeeta Sarmah,&nbsp;Mrinal Singha,&nbsp;Weinan Chen,&nbsp;Yong Ge,&nbsp;Liyin L. Liang,&nbsp;Santonu Goswami,&nbsp;Shuli Niu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004489","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004489","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Over the past four decades, global temperatures have increased more rapidly than before, potentially reducing vegetation activity if temperatures exceed the optimum temperature (T_opt). However, plants have the capacity to acclimate to rising temperatures by adjusting T_opt, thereby maintaining or even enhancing photosynthesis and carbon uptake. Despite this, it remains unclear how T_opt of vegetation activity changes over time and to what extent global vegetation can acclimate to current temperature changes. In this study, we evaluated the temporal trends of T_opt of vegetation activity and the thermal acclimation magnitudes globally using three remote-sensed vegetation indices and eddy-covariance observations of gross primary productivity from 1982 to 2020. We found that the global T_opt of vegetation activity has increased at an average rate of 0.63°C per decade over the past four decades. The increase in T_opt closely tracked the rise in annual maximum daily mean temperature (T_max), indicating that thermal acclimation has occurred widely across the globe. Globally, we found an average thermal acclimation magnitude of 0.38°C per 1°C increase in T_max. Notably, polar and continental regions exhibited the highest thermal acclimation magnitudes, while arid areas showed the lowest. Additionally, the thermal acclimation magnitude was positively affected by interannual temperature variability and negatively affected by soil moisture and vapor pressure deficits. Our findings indicate that terrestrial ecosystems have acclimated to current climate warming trends with varying degrees, suggesting a greater potential for land carbon uptake. Moreover, these results highlight the necessity for earth system models to integrate the thermal acclimation of T_opt to better forecast the global carbon cycle.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004489","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Landslide Hazard Is Projected to Increase Across High Mountain Asia","authors":"Thomas A. Stanley,&nbsp;Rachel B. Soobitsky,&nbsp;Pukar M. Amatya,&nbsp;Dalia B. Kirschbaum","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004325","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004325","url":null,"abstract":"<p>High Mountain Asia has long been known as a hotspot for landslide risk, and studies have suggested that landslide hazard is likely to increase in this region over the coming decades. Extreme precipitation may become more frequent, with a nonlinear response relative to increasing global temperatures. However, these changes are geographically varied. This article maps probable changes to landslide hazard, as shown by a landslide hazard indicator (LHI) derived from downscaled precipitation and temperature. In order to capture the nonlinear response of slopes to extreme precipitation, a simple machine-learning model was trained on a database of landslides across High Mountain Asia to develop a regional LHI. This model was applied to statistically downscaled data from the 30 members of the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research large ensembles to produce a range of possible outcomes under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. The LHI reveals that landslide hazard will increase in most parts of High Mountain Asia. Absolute increases will be highest in already hazardous areas such as the Central Himalaya, but relative change is greatest on the Tibetan Plateau. Even in regions where landslide hazard declines by year 2100, it will increase prior to the mid-century mark. However, the seasonal cycle of landslide occurrence will not change greatly across High Mountain Asia. Although substantial uncertainty remains in these projections, the overall direction of change seems reliable. These findings highlight the importance of continued analysis to inform disaster risk reduction strategies for stakeholders across High Mountain Asia.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004325","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}