Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Drivers of Future Indian Ocean Warming and Its Spatial Pattern in CMIP Models","authors":"S. Gopika,&nbsp;K. Sadhvi,&nbsp;J. Vialard,&nbsp;V. Danielli,&nbsp;S. Neetu,&nbsp;M. Lengaigne","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006112","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) projections display substantial inter-model diversity in the future tropical Indian Ocean warming magnitude and spatial pattern. Here, we investigate the underlying physical mechanisms in 46 CMIP5/6 models using an upper-ocean heat budget framework that separates surface net air-sea flux changes into forcing and feedback components. The multi-model mean (MMM) basin-averaged warming is primarily driven by reduced evaporative cooling due to weaker surface winds related to reduction of both summer and winter monsoonal circulations and increased near-surface relative humidity, with inter-model variations in these parameters controlling warming diversity. The MMM warming pattern features a weakening equatorial gradient, resembling a positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase, and a strengthening interhemispheric gradient, both of which also dominate inter-model spread. Ocean dynamics modulate the amplitude of the MMM IOD-like pattern and its inter-model variability through the Bjerknes feedback, which couples the zonal equatorial SST gradient, equatorial winds, and thermocline slope. Interactions with the tropical Pacific may further contribute to this response. Meanwhile, stronger climatological winds enhance evaporative cooling in the Southern Hemisphere, reducing warming there, and strengthening the MMM interhemispheric SST gradient. The diversity in this interhemispheric gradient is linked to variations in cross-equatorial wind changes and their impact on latent heat flux forcing. This interhemispheric gradient strengthening is part of a broader pan-tropical pattern, with similar features in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. These findings clarify the relative roles of thermodynamic processes and ocean dynamics in shaping future tropical Indian Ocean warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006112","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143861912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Model of Mountain Social-Ecological Systems to Catalyze Multi-Actor Collaborations Toward Sustainability","authors":"H. Cristofari,&nbsp;D. Asse,&nbsp;L. Chanteloup,&nbsp;A. Guisan,&nbsp;I. Otero,&nbsp;E. Reynard,&nbsp;D. Urbach,&nbsp;C. Randin","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004818","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004818","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Addressing sustainability challenges in mountain regions where human activities strongly overlap requires multi-actor collaboration and interdisciplinary methods. Yet, such collaborative processes need to account for the existence of diverse representations of mountain social-ecological systems amongst actors. Here we first explore and describe diverse representations of mountain social-ecological systems using picture-based interviews with local actors. We then develop a conceptual model of such systems that can help actors acknowledge and share their representations. This model integrates the human and natural components of mountain social-ecological systems as well as their interactions. To further support reflexivity, it also specifies an individual's personal stance with respect to the system.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004818","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143857069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Many Floods Have Occurred in China in the Past Decade? A Perspective From Social Media","authors":"D. Shen,&nbsp;H. Gu,&nbsp;W. Chen,&nbsp;C. Zhang,&nbsp;S. Xiao,&nbsp;S. Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004775","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004775","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global climate change has led to frequent and widespread flood disasters in China. Traditional flood disaster investigations mainly focus on major flood events, and small-scale flood events are often overlooked. This study utilized the Sina Weibo social media platform to detect flood events in 370 cities in China from 2012 to 2023. We downloaded 73.52 million Weibo posts and developed a two-step flood detection algorithm. In the first step, the algorithm initially identifies 956 flood events based on changes in posting frequency. In the second step, an LDA topic model is used to detect topics for these flood events and automatically filter out false events, resulting in 729 flood events. Verification of these events confirmed that 629 of the 729 were real flood events, achieving a detection accuracy of 86.28%. In the end, after excluding all false flood events and reinstating the mistakenly removed real ones, we obtained a total of 674 verified flood events. Among these 370 cities, 194 cities experienced flood disasters, accounting for 52.43% of the total. Additionally, we compared our findings with online news reports, as well as the flood data sets from the GDACS and EM-DAT. We found that our study had a high detection rate for urban waterlogging events. However, there were cases of missed detection for flash floods and small watershed flood disasters. Nevertheless, this study represents the most comprehensive publicly available detection of flood events in China to date, which is of great significance for the government's flood management and decision-making.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004775","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143845918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing Coarse Aerosols Mitigated the Warming Effect of Anthropogenic Fine Particle Reductions in Europe","authors":"Chen Cui,&nbsp;Pengfei Tian,&nbsp;Wenfang Wang,&nbsp;Zeren Yu,&nbsp;Binrui Wang,&nbsp;Chenguang Tang,&nbsp;Xianjie Cao,&nbsp;Jiening Liang,&nbsp;Lei Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006044","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recent decades have seen substantial variations in the physicochemical characteristics of atmospheric aerosols with expected continued changes in the future. While sustained global emission controls have yielded significant environmental benefits, the associated climate penalty from complex radiative effects has induced additional warming, raising public concern. Our study reveals that increased coarse particles enhance fine particle coagulation, contributing to higher coarse particle levels and a reduction in coarse particle peak size, thereby scattering more solar radiation and mitigating the warming from reduced fine particles in Europe. From 1999 to 2021, changes in coarse particles offset 24.6% (26.3%) of the reduced cooling effect at the top (ground) of atmosphere from fine particle reductions. Our findings highlight the complex but significant role of aerosol size changes in influencing solar radiation budget, offering potential relief for global warming concerns and bolstering emissions reduction efforts, with important global and European implications amid ongoing and expected anthropogenic emission cuts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006044","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143845856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Non-Floodplain Wetlands Are Carbon-Storage Powerhouses Across the United States","authors":"Charles R. Lane,&nbsp;Amanda M. Nahlik,&nbsp;Jay Christensen,&nbsp;Heather Golden,&nbsp;Michael Dumelle,&nbsp;Ellen D’Amico,&nbsp;Anthony R. Olsen","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005594","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005594","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding wetland carbon stores and dynamics are critical to managing global carbon flux. Non-floodplain wetlands (NFWs) are hydrologically dynamic and globally prevalent inland wetlands distal to fluvial flowpaths, lacustrine-fringing areas, and geomorphic floodplains; &gt;50% the world's remaining wetlands have been reported as NFWs. Quantifying NFW carbon stores and dynamics represents a substantive global carbon-budget gap. We analyze conterminous-US (CONUS) field-based data collected from nearly 2000 wetland sites sampled by the National Wetlands Condition Assessment (NWCA) representing ∼38 Mha CONUS wetlands, asking: What is the mean soil organic carbon density and total carbon storage in different hydrogeomorphically classified wetland types? To what extent does soil organic carbon density and total carbon in NFWs differ from other wetland types? How does NFW soil organic carbon density and total carbon vary between altered and intact NFWs? We find that relative to other wetland types, NFWs are carbon-storing powerhouses, containing approximately 1.5x soil organic carbon per ha than other wetland types sampled. CONUS-wide, NFWs store more total carbon across every depth increment: ∼2.0x than other wetland types. Further, wetland condition affects carbon dynamics: least impaired NFWs had 1.6x the soil organic carbon density found in intermediately disturbed wetlands and 1.8x the density of most-disturbed NFWs. These NWCA data, plus waning societal protections, suggests that carbon releases from NFW destruction across CONUS landscapes are likely to increase—perhaps markedly—in the coming years (e.g., through altered hydrology affecting atmospheric release of NFW-stored carbon as well as dissolved carbon export).</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005594","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143846002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mitigating Climate Risk to China's Renewable Energy Generation by Power Plants Redeployment Using a Machine-Learning Model","authors":"Lin Lv,&nbsp;Miaomiao Liu,&nbsp;Yuli Shan,&nbsp;Jinghang Xu,&nbsp;Jianxun Yang,&nbsp;Wen Fang,&nbsp;Zongwei Ma,&nbsp;Jun Bi","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005641","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005641","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Redeploying plants may mitigate climate risk and enhance renewable power generation. However, designing deployment strategies is complicated by the lack of plant-level response between power generation and climate variables with the constraint of economic and social factors. Here, we develop three random-forest (RF) response models that accurately capture the nonlinear relationship between renewable energy generation (hydro, solar, and wind power) and climate parameters at the plant level, using a 17-year historical data set. These RF models enable projections of renewable energy generation from both existing and newly built power plants under the Representative Concentration Pathways and the Shared Social-Economic Pathways (RCP-SSP) scenarios, as well as deployment strategies. Our analysis reveals that renewable energy generation from existing plants is projected to decrease significantly by 6%–8% (57–72 TWh) in 2045–2060 compared to the period 2002–2017. The impact of climate change on renewable energy generation varies spatially, suggesting optimizing the deployment of newly built power plants could mitigate adverse effects. Compared to the strategy maintaining the original deployment, national renewable energy generation can be increased by 24%–28% through optimized deployment tailored to future climate. The optimized deployment can lead to synergistic reductions in carbon emissions by 25%–28% and air pollutants by 42%–97%. These findings underscore the significance of considering plant-level heterogeneity and climate risk in the strategic deployment of renewable power systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005641","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143846109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geomorphology and Hydroclimate Control Regional Urban Expansion","authors":"Serena Ceola,&nbsp;Giulia Grandi,&nbsp;Enrico Bertuzzo","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005652","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The scale of urbanization is well-acknowledged and future projections outline severe sustainability concerns. Existing studies acknowledge that several environmental, hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, policy, and institutional factors control urban growth, yet key information about its detailed spatial and temporal dynamics is still missing. The ability to reproduce observed patterns of urban expansion is essential for projecting reliable scenarios for the near future. Here we develop a spatially explicit probabilistic modeling framework to describe observed urban expansion dynamics at a regional scale. As a proof of concept, we test our methodology in North-East China, as it experienced a rapid and sizable urbanization in the last 30 years. We infer the rate of urbanization from urban data and consider 128 different model combinations, aimed at exploring the role played by geomorphic and hydroclimatic drivers, together with the proximity to existing urban areas, in controlling spatial dynamics of urban expansion. Our results show that elevation, terrain slope, distance from rivers and from the sea are the most relevant factors in the considered study area. The fractal size distribution of urban clusters is satisfactorily reproduced by our model, which further confirms its validity. We discuss how our methodology could be a key contribution for analyzing and predicting the spatial dynamics of urban expansion in different regions of the globe. Valuable information on where human settlements will be located and how urban expansion will evolve can effectively support future planning strategies toward a more sustainable development.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005652","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143830972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sustainability Evaluation of the Doughnut Economics: A Bibliometric Analysis","authors":"Qinglong Shao","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004638","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004638","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Considering the lack of a comprehensive review of Doughnut Economics (DE) as an emerging sustainability evaluation framework, this study conducts a bibliometric analysis from 2012 to 2024 to reveal the research progress using CiteSpace. After introducing its connotation and summarizing its theoretical basis, accounting procedures, and urban practices, bibliometric analyses show that: (a) The “planetary boundary/ies,” “sustainable development,” and “doughnut economics” are the three most frequently co-occurred keywords, and the similarities and differences of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and DE are presented; (b) Timeline view reveals the term climate change has the longest research history and widest citation relationships in DE research; (c) The landmark studies of Raworth, O’Neill, Steffen, and Fanning are illustrated as the most important works with the highest frequencies of co-citations; (d) Stockholm University, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and University of Oxford are the top three DE research centers within environment-related disciplines, and the authors are mainly come from the England, USA, and Germany. The results not only provide a valuable reference for researchers interested in DE but also put forward the emphasis and orientation of future studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004638","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143831240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring Site-Specific Carbon Dioxide Removal Options With Storage or Sequestration in the Marine Environment – The 10 Mt CO2 yr−1 Removal Challenge for Germany","authors":"W. Yao,&nbsp;T. M. Morganti,&nbsp;J. Wu,&nbsp;M. Borchers,&nbsp;A. Anschütz,&nbsp;L.-K. Bednarz,&nbsp;K. A. Bhaumik,&nbsp;M. Böttcher,&nbsp;K. Burkhard,&nbsp;T. Cabus,&nbsp;A. S. Chua,&nbsp;I. Diercks,&nbsp;M. Esposito,&nbsp;M. Fink,&nbsp;M. Fouqueray,&nbsp;F. Gasanzade,&nbsp;S. Geilert,&nbsp;J. Hauck,&nbsp;F. Havermann,&nbsp;I. Hellige,&nbsp;S. Hoog,&nbsp;M. Jürchott,&nbsp;H. T. Kalapurakkal,&nbsp;J. Kemper,&nbsp;I. Kremin,&nbsp;I. Lange,&nbsp;J. M. Lencina-Avila,&nbsp;M. Liadova,&nbsp;F. Liu,&nbsp;S. Mathesius,&nbsp;N. Mehendale,&nbsp;T. Nagwekar,&nbsp;M. Philippi,&nbsp;G. L. N. Luz,&nbsp;M. Ramasamy,&nbsp;F. Stahl,&nbsp;L. Tank,&nbsp;M.-E. Vorrath,&nbsp;L. Westmark,&nbsp;H.-W. Wey,&nbsp;R. Wollnik,&nbsp;M. Wölfelschneider,&nbsp;W. Bach,&nbsp;K. Bischof,&nbsp;M. Boersma,&nbsp;U. Daewel,&nbsp;M. Fernández-Méndez,&nbsp;J. K. Geuer,&nbsp;D. P. Keller,&nbsp;A. Kopf,&nbsp;C. Merk,&nbsp;N. Moosdorf,&nbsp;N. Oppelt,&nbsp;A. Oschlies,&nbsp;J. Pongratz,&nbsp;A. Proelss,&nbsp;G. J. Rehder,&nbsp;L. Rüpke,&nbsp;N. Szarka,&nbsp;D. Thraen,&nbsp;K. Wallmann,&nbsp;N. Mengis","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004902","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004902","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) and geological carbon storage in the marine environment (mCS) promise to help mitigate global climate change alongside drastic emission reductions. However, the implementable potential of mCDR and mCS depends, apart from technology readiness, also on site-specific conditions. In this work, we explore different options for mCDR and mCS, using the German context as a case study. We challenge each option to remove 10 Mt CO₂ yr⁻¹, accounting for 8%–22% of projected hard-to-abate and residual emissions of Germany in 2045. We focus on the environmental, resource, and infrastructure requirements of individual mCDR and mCS options at specific sites, within the German jurisdiction when possible. This serves as an entry point to discuss main uncertainty factors and research needs beyond technology readiness, and, where possible, cost estimates, expected environmental effects, and monitoring approaches. In total, we describe 10 mCDR and mCS options; four aim at enhancing the chemical carbon uptake of the ocean through alkalinity enhancement, four aim at enhancing blue carbon ecosystems' sink capacity, and two employ geological off-shore storage. Our results indicate that five out of 10 options would potentially be implementable within German jurisdiction, and three of them could potentially meet the challenge. Our exercise serves as an example on how the creation of more tangible and site-specific CDR options can provide a basis for the assessment of socio-economic, ethical, political, and legal aspects for such implementations. The approach presented here can easily be applied to other regional or national CDR capacity considerations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004902","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143831242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Current Interventions Are Inadequate to Maintain Cities' Resilience During Concurrent Drought and Excessive Heat","authors":"Yannick Back,&nbsp;Alrun Jasper-Tönnies,&nbsp;Peter M. Bach,&nbsp;Prashant Kumar,&nbsp;Mattheos Santamouris,&nbsp;Wolfgang Rauch,&nbsp;Manfred Kleidorfer","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005208","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005208","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is expected to intensify the global water cycle, affecting land-atmosphere feedbacks and surface water availability. This leads to prolonged droughts and excessive heat events, increasing vulnerability of cities to water scarcity and extreme heat. Here, we integrate data from regional climate simulations into an urban modeling approach that operates at an intraurban microscale. Using this approach, we investigate the concurrent effects of the 2019 European summer drought and an increase in extreme heat days under RCP2.6 (mitigation scenario) and RCP8.5 (business-as-usual scenario) on land-atmosphere interactions, evaporative cooling potential, and bioclimatic conditions in Innsbruck, Austria. Results indicate that water-limiting conditions such as those from summer 2019 impair evaporative capacities of ecological systems and augment diurnal and nocturnal heat transfer between the soil, surface and atmosphere in the city, if not irrigated extensively. Combined with the projected increase in daily maximum temperature of extreme heat days by 3.9 K under RCP8.5, we see the development of extreme human heat stress, with a mean Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) exceeding 38°C across the study area. Additionally, we found that maintaining a prevailing evaporative cooling effect over an area requires a degree of surface sealing less than 11% and unrestricted water supply. We stress the urgency of integrated urban water management, including combined rain and greywater recycling, and innovative natural and technical climate change interventions for urban green space irrigation. These mitigation measures are necessary to avoid critical malfunctions in ecological systems related to human well-being under future climate trajectories.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005208","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143822086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}