Earths Future最新文献

{"title":"Knowns and Unknowns in Future Human Pressures on the Ocean","authors":"O. Alejandra Vargas-Fonseca,&nbsp;Melanie Frazier,&nbsp;Amanda T. Lombard,&nbsp;Benjamin S. Halpern","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004559","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Growing demands on ocean resources are placing increasing pressures on ocean ecosystems. To assess the current state of knowledge of future human pressures on the ocean, we conducted a literature review of recent and projected trends of 25 anthropogenic pressures, comprising most of the identified human pressures on the global oceans. To better understand gaps in the data, we developed a comprehensive framework of the activities contributing to each pressure. All pressures were allocated to five categories (biological disruption, disturbance and removal, altered ocean chemistry, pollution, and climate pressures). All pressures are expected to worsen in the future under business-as-usual scenarios (or similar) based on past trajectories and/or models of future scenarios. Eight of the pressures assessed have not been projected into the future (diseases and pathogens, introduced coastal wildlife predation, disruption to sediment dynamics, wildlife strikes, organic and inorganic chemical pollution, light and noise pollution), likely due to the limited availability of data describing current pressures, the challenges of modeling future pressures, and high levels of uncertainty. We thus recommend they receive priority attention to assess their likely future trajectories, given their potential magnitude of influence.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004559","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142152313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble","authors":"Hélène Seroussi,&nbsp;Tyler Pelle,&nbsp;William H. Lipscomb,&nbsp;Ayako Abe-Ouchi,&nbsp;Torsten Albrecht,&nbsp;Jorge Alvarez-Solas,&nbsp;Xylar Asay-Davis,&nbsp;Jean-Baptiste Barre,&nbsp;Constantijn J. Berends,&nbsp;Jorge Bernales,&nbsp;Javier Blasco,&nbsp;Justine Caillet,&nbsp;David M. Chandler,&nbsp;Violaine Coulon,&nbsp;Richard Cullather,&nbsp;Christophe Dumas,&nbsp;Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi,&nbsp;Julius Garbe,&nbsp;Fabien Gillet-Chaulet,&nbsp;Rupert Gladstone,&nbsp;Heiko Goelzer,&nbsp;Nicholas Golledge,&nbsp;Ralf Greve,&nbsp;G. Hilmar Gudmundsson,&nbsp;Holly Kyeore Han,&nbsp;Trevor R. Hillebrand,&nbsp;Matthew J. Hoffman,&nbsp;Philippe Huybrechts,&nbsp;Nicolas C. Jourdain,&nbsp;Ann Kristin Klose,&nbsp;Petra M. Langebroek,&nbsp;Gunter R. Leguy,&nbsp;Daniel P. Lowry,&nbsp;Pierre Mathiot,&nbsp;Marisa Montoya,&nbsp;Mathieu Morlighem,&nbsp;Sophie Nowicki,&nbsp;Frank Pattyn,&nbsp;Antony J. Payne,&nbsp;Aurélien Quiquet,&nbsp;Ronja Reese,&nbsp;Alexander Robinson,&nbsp;Leopekka Saraste,&nbsp;Erika G. Simon,&nbsp;Sainan Sun,&nbsp;Jake P. Twarog,&nbsp;Luke D. Trusel,&nbsp;Benoit Urruty,&nbsp;Jonas Van Breedam,&nbsp;Roderik S. W. van de Wal,&nbsp;Yu Wang,&nbsp;Chen Zhao,&nbsp;Thomas Zwinger","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004561","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004561","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project–Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process-based projections of the ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise over the twenty-first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice-flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high-emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea-level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice-shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%–40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea-level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ∼10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea-level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi-century projections.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004561","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142142362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi-Model Comparison","authors":"M. Ben-Yami,&nbsp;P. Good,&nbsp;L. C. Jackson,&nbsp;M. Crucifix,&nbsp;A. Hu,&nbsp;O. Saenko,&nbsp;D. Swingedouw,&nbsp;N. Boers","doi":"10.1029/2023EF003959","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003959","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would have substantial impacts on global precipitation patterns, especially in the vulnerable tropical monsoon regions. We assess these impacts in experiments that apply the same freshwater hosing to four state-of-the-art climate models with bistable AMOC. As opposed to previous results, we find that the spatial and seasonal patterns of precipitation change are remarkably consistent across models. We focus on the South American Monsoon (SAM), the West African Monsoon (WAM), the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Models consistently suggest substantial disruptions for WAM, ISM, and EASM with shorter wet and longer dry seasons (−29.07%, −18.76%, and −3.78% ensemble mean annual rainfall change, respectively). Models also agree on changes for the SAM, suggesting rainfall increases overall, in contrast to previous studies. These are more pronounced in the southern Amazon (+43.79%), accompanied by decreasing dry-season length. Consistently across models, our results suggest a robust and major rearranging of all tropical monsoon systems in response to an AMOC collapse.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF003959","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142130450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-Hazard Interrelationships and Risk Scenarios in Urban Areas: A Case of Nairobi and Istanbul","authors":"Robert Šakić Trogrlić,&nbsp;Harriet E. Thompson,&nbsp;Emin Yahya Menteşe,&nbsp;Ekbal Hussain,&nbsp;Joel C. Gill,&nbsp;Faith E. Taylor,&nbsp;Emmah Mwangi,&nbsp;Emine Öner,&nbsp;Vera G. Bukachi,&nbsp;Bruce D. Malamud","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004413","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004413","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper introduces a methodology for characterizing the breadth of natural hazard types, hazard interrelationships, and risk scenarios in Global South urban areas, focusing on Nairobi, Kenya, and Istanbul, Türkiye. Our approach involves (a) a comprehensive characterization of multi-hazards and their interrelationships in an urban setting, (b) collaborative development of relevant multi-hazard scenarios with local disaster risk reduction (DRR) stakeholders, and (c) analysis of the potential for integrating these scenarios into urban DRR efforts. Using a critical review of 135 sources (academic and gray literature, databases, online, and social media), we identify 19 natural hazard types that might influence Nairobi and 23 in Istanbul. We further identified in Nairobi 88 and Istanbul 105 hazard interrelationship pairs (e.g., an earthquake triggering landslides) out of a possible 576 interrelationships. These findings are cataloged in an extensive database, which informs the creation of multi-hazard risk scenario exemplars for each city. These exemplars are refined through stakeholder engagement, involving four workshops (47 participants) and nine semi-structured interviews with local DRR stakeholders. Despite the identified benefits, this engagement reveals a significant gap in integrating multi-hazards into current urban policy and practice. Governance challenges are highlighted as a key barrier, but opportunities for better integration are also identified, including evolving policies and growing awareness among urban actors. Our approach, particularly relevant in data-scarce urban areas of low- and middle-income countries, provides a framework for exploring multi-hazard issues in various urban contexts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004413","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142137786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Assessment of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposures of Population, Agriculture, and Forest Lands Under Two Climate Scenarios","authors":"Tayler A. Schillerberg,&nbsp;Di Tian","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004845","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is expected to increase the global occurrence and intensity of heatwaves, extreme precipitation, and flash droughts. However, it is not well understood how the compound heatwave, extreme precipitation, and flash drought events will likely change, and how global population, agriculture, and forest will likely be exposed to these compound events under future climate change scenarios. This research uses eight CMIP6 climate models to assess the current and future global compound climate extreme events, as well as population, agriculture, and forestry exposures to these events, under two climate scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 for three time periods: early-, mid-, and late- 21st century. Climate extremes are derived for heatwaves, extreme precipitation, and flash droughts using locational-dependent thresholds. We find that compound heatwaves and flash drought events result in the largest increases in exposure of populations, agriculture, and forest lands, under SSP5-8.5 late-century projections of sequential heatwaves and flash droughts. Late-century projections of sequential heatwaves and flash droughts show hot spots of exposure increases in population exposure greater than 50 million person-events in China, India, and Europe; increases in agriculture land exposures greater than 90 thousand km²-events in China, South America, and Oceania; and increase in forest land exposure greater than 120 thousand km²-events in Oceania and South America regions when compared to the historical period. The findings from this study can be potentially useful for informing global climate adaptations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004845","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142123153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate-Driven Projections of Future Global Wetlands Extent","authors":"Lucas Hardouin,&nbsp;Bertrand Decharme,&nbsp;Jeanne Colin,&nbsp;Christine Delire","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004553","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004553","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wetlands are crucial components of the Earth's system, interacting with various processes such as the hydrological cycle, energy exchanges with the atmosphere, and global nitrogen and carbon cycles. The future trajectory of wetlands is anticipated to be influenced not only by direct human activities, but also by climate change. Here we present our assessment of climate-driven global changes in wetlands extent, focusing on the main wetland complexes. We used an approach based on the Topographic Hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and soil liquid water content projections from 14 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our analysis reveals a consistent decrease in wetlands extent in the Mediterranean, Central America, and northern South America, with a substantial loss of 28% in the western Amazon Basin for the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under the SSP370 scenario. Conversely, Central Africa exhibits an increase in wetlands extent, except in the Congo Basin. Nevertheless, most of the areas studied (80%) present uncertain results, due to conflicting projections of changes between the models. Notably, we show that there is significant uncertainty among CMIP6 models regarding liquid soil water content in high latitudes. By narrowing our focus to 10 models, which seem to better represent the thawing of permafrost, we obtain a better inter-model agreement. We then find a modest declines in the overall global area (&lt;5%), but an average loss of 13% beyond 50°N. Specific areas like the Hudson Bay Lowlands experiencing a 21% decrease and the Western Siberian Lowlands a 15% decrease.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004553","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142123154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Past and Future of the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project","authors":"Camilla Novaglio,&nbsp;Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz,&nbsp;Derek P. Tittensor,&nbsp;Tyler D. Eddy,&nbsp;Heike K. Lotze,&nbsp;Cheryl S. Harrison,&nbsp;Ryan F. Heneghan,&nbsp;Olivier Maury,&nbsp;Kelly Ortega-Cisneros,&nbsp;Colleen M. Petrik,&nbsp;Kelsey E. Roberts,&nbsp;Julia L. Blanchard","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004398","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004398","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is increasingly affecting the world's ocean ecosystems, necessitating urgent guidance on adaptation strategies to limit or prevent catastrophic impacts. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) is a network and framework that provides standardised ensemble projections of the impacts of climate change and fisheries on ocean life and the benefits that it provides to people. Since its official launch in 2013 as a small, self-organized project within the larger Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, the FishMIP community has grown substantially and contributed to key international policy processes, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report, and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Global Biodiversity Assessment. While not without challenges, particularly around comparing heterogeneous ecosystem models, integrating fisheries scenarios, and standardising regional-scale ecosystem models, FishMIP outputs are now being used across a variety of applications (e.g., climate change targets, fisheries management, marine conservation, Sustainable Development Goals). Over the next decade, FishMIP will focus on improving ecosystem model ensembles to provide more robust and policy-relevant projections for different regions of the world under multiple climate and societal change scenarios, and continue to be open to a broad spectrum of marine ecosystem models and modelers. FishMIP also intends to enhance leadership diversity and capacity-building to improve representation of early- and mid-career researchers from under-represented countries and ocean regions. As we look ahead, FishMIP aims to continue enhancing our understanding of how marine life and its contributions to people may change over the coming century at both global and regional scales.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004398","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142100398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Anthropogenic Influence Has Increased the Nighttime Heat Stress Risks in Eastern China","authors":"Wenyue He,&nbsp;Huopo Chen","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004406","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004406","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Nights with high temperatures and humidity often bring more fatal consequences during the human sleeping process. A significantly increasing trend in the intensity and frequency of humid-heat nights has been observed in eastern China from 1961 to 2014. Detection analyses show that the fingerprinting of anthropogenic forcing, in which the greenhouse gas forcing is critical, can be identified for changes in the humid-heat nights in eastern China. However, the roles of anthropogenic aerosols and external natural forcings cannot be detected, and their effects on the observed changes in humid-heat nights over eastern China are generally negligible. Under different warming scenarios, there is a projected continuation of increasing intensity and frequency of humid-heat nights, although the magnitudes are reduced after constraining. In eastern China, the areal mean intensity of humid-heat nights is projected to increase by approximately 0.9, 1.5, 2.5, and 3.5°C (relative to 1995–2014) for 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0°C global warming, while the occurrence of extreme humid-heat night is 1.1, 1.2, 1.2, and 1.3 times more than the current period. Moreover, the population exposed to humid-heat nights in eastern China, particularly in the northern regions, is expected to increase in the future. Our results enhance the understanding of the potential risks of humid-heat nights, which is critical for climate-change policy in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004406","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142100320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimates of Lake Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Chlorophyll-a Concentrations to Characterize Harmful Algal Bloom Risk Across the United States","authors":"Meredith M. Brehob,&nbsp;Michael J. Pennino,&nbsp;Amalia M. Handler,&nbsp;Jana E. Compton,&nbsp;Sylvia S. Lee,&nbsp;Robert D. Sabo","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004493","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004493","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Excess nutrient pollution contributes to the formation of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that compromise fisheries and recreation and that can directly endanger human and animal health via cyanotoxins. Efforts to quantify the occurrence, drivers, and severity of HABs across large areas is difficult due to the resource intensive nature of field monitoring of lake nutrient and chlorophyll-<i>a</i> concentrations. To better characterize how nutrients interact with other environmental factors to produce algal blooms in freshwater systems, we used spatially explicit and temporally matched climate, landscape, in-lake characteristic, and nutrient inventory data sets to predict nutrients and chlorophyll-<i>a</i> across the conterminous US (CONUS). Using a nested modeling approach, three random forest (RF) models were trained to explain the spatiotemporal variation in total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chlorophyll-<i>a</i> concentrations across US EPA's National Lakes Assessment (<i>n</i> = 2,062). Concentrations of TN and TP were the most important predictors and, with other variables, the RF model accounted for 68% of variation in chlorophyll-<i>a</i>. We then used these RF models to extrapolate lake TN and TP predictions to lakes without nutrient observations and predict chlorophyll-<i>a</i> for ∼112,000 lakes across the CONUS. Risk for high chlorophyll-<i>a</i> concentrations is highest in the agriculturally dominated Midwest, but other areas of risk emerge in nutrient pollution hot spots across the country. These catchment and lake-specific results can help managers identify potential nutrient pollution and chlorophyll-<i>a</i> hot spots that may fuel blooms, prioritize at-risk lakes for additional monitoring, and optimize management to protect human health and other environmental end goals.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004493","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142084596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Key Uncertainties and Modeling Needs for Managing Living Marine Resources in the Future Arctic Ocean","authors":"Julia G. Mason,&nbsp;Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz,&nbsp;Juliano Palacios-Abrantes,&nbsp;Renuka Badhe,&nbsp;Isabella Morgante,&nbsp;Daniele Bianchi,&nbsp;Julia L. Blanchard,&nbsp;Jason D. Everett,&nbsp;Cheryl S. Harrison,&nbsp;Ryan F. Heneghan,&nbsp;Camilla Novaglio,&nbsp;Colleen M. Petrik","doi":"10.1029/2023EF004393","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004393","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Emerging fishing activity due to melting ice and poleward species distribution shifts in the rapidly-warming Arctic Ocean challenges transboundary management and requires proactive governance. A 2021 moratorium on commercial fishing in the Arctic high seas provides a 16-year runway for improved scientific understanding. Given substantial knowledge gaps, characterizing areas of highest uncertainty is a key first step. Marine ecosystem model ensembles that project future fish distributions could inform management of future Arctic fisheries, but Arctic-specific variation has not yet been examined for global ensembles. We use the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Intercomparison Project ensemble driven by two Earth System Models (ESMs) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) to illustrate the current state of and uncertainty among biomass projections for the Arctic Ocean over the duration of the moratorium. The models generally project biomass increases in more northern Arctic ecosystems and decreases in southern ecosystems, but wide intra-model variation exceeds projection means in most cases. The two ESMs show opposite trends for the main environmental drivers. Therefore, these projections are currently insufficient to inform policy actions. Investment in sustained monitoring and improving modeling capacity, especially for sea ice dynamics, is urgently needed. Concurrently, it will be necessary to develop frameworks for making precautionary decisions under continued uncertainty. We conclude that researchers should be transparent about uncertainty, presenting these model projections not as a source of scientific “answers,” but as bounding for plausible, policy-relevant questions to assess trade-offs and mitigate risks.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF004393","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142077957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}