Global Terrestrial Carbon Storage Change Affected by Future Land Dynamics Under Social-Climate Scenarios

Abstract

In the current efforts to address global climate change, terrestrial carbon storage is a significant source of carbon sinks. Moreover, with the progress of urbanization, changes in land cover have led to increasingly unavoidable changes in terrestrial carbon storage. However, there is still a lack of research on the impact of land cover change on global terrestrial carbon storage under the latest IPCC scenarios. Therefore, this study utilizes the InVEST model to examine the impact of future land dynamics on global terrestrial carbon storage under various SSP-RCP scenarios from 2015 to 2100. The results reveal significant regional differences and trends. For instance, under the SSP4-3.4 scenario, global terrestrial carbon storage loss could reach up to 30.2 PgC due to land conversions, such as the transformation of tropical rainforests into bioenergy crops in Indonesia. The social cost of offsetting terrestrial carbon loss could range from trillions to tens of trillions of dollars in various scenarios. Additionally, our analysis indicates that urban expansion generally reduces carbon storage, but strategic urban planning can mitigate this impact. In ecological protected areas and biodiversity hotspots, we observed a polarized trend: areas with increasing carbon storage are experiencing growth at a faster rate than historically, while areas with decreasing carbon storage are facing accelerated losses. This disparity underscores the necessity for targeted conservation efforts. In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of sound land management and policy interventions in mitigating terrestrial carbon storage losses, protecting ecologically sensitive areas, and achieving climate goals.