No Robust Sign of Human Influence in the Unprecedented Atmospheric Circulation of Summer 2018 Over Northern Europe

Abstract

The summer of 2018 was characterized by prolonged heatwaves over Northern Europe, associated with persistent atmospheric blocking, and an unusually northward jet stream location over Scandinavia. Whilst event attribution studies tend to focus on the change in probability or magnitude of the extreme temperatures themselves, we provide context to these studies by examining whether there are human induced trends in the atmospheric circulation that might affect the likelihood of similar extreme circulation patterns and associated heat waves occurring in the future. We examine trends and variability in summer jet latitude, blocking frequency and overall circulation pattern over the Scandinavian sector in a variety of reanalyses and climate model ensembles. Both the number of blocked days, and the average jet location for summer 2018 were unprecedented in the reanalyses, and rare in climate model simulations. We found no robust evidence of past or future externally forced changes in summer blocking frequency over Scandinavia in model simulations, whilst trends in circulation analogs were also largely insignificant. Trends in jet latitude were dependent on the time period examined, models included and other analysis choices. Overall, we found no robust evidence for systematic trends in average or extreme years toward Summer 2018-like conditions for any of the three indices, nor in the frequency of co-occurring extreme northward jet latitude and high blocking frequency. We conclude that Summer 2018s circulation can likely be explained by internal atmospheric variability.