Global Warming Will Increase the Risk of Water Shortage in Northwest China

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI:10.1029/2025EF006199
Chang Lu, Qiang Zhang, R. Iestyn Woolway, Long Ma, Tingxi Liu, Gang Wang, Deliang Sun, Vijay P. Singh, Yungang Bai, Bolin Sun, Xing Huang
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Abstract

Drylands with fragile ecosystems and severe water shortages are particularly vulnerable to climatic change. Northwestern China (NWC), a typical arid region, faces uncertainty regarding future wetting or drying trends. A comprehensive assessment and projection of these conditions are crucial for water resource management. In this study, we employ a Lagrangian trajectory model, optimal fingerprint analysis, and a maximum covariance technique to evaluate wetting and/or drying trends in NWC over the historical (1981–2023) and future (2024–2099) periods. Our results show that over 80% of NWC experienced increases in air temperature, precipitation, and evaporation during the historical period. External and internal water vapor sources contribute 92% and 8%, respectively, to precipitation changes. Incoming water vapor predominantly originated from the North Atlantic (31.9%) and the South China Sea - Bay of Bengal region (39.3%), with a strong positive correlation (r = 0.71) between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and precipitation minus evaporation in NWC. Water vapor enters NWC from the southern, northern, and western boundaries, while 83.4% escapes through the eastern boundary. The precipitation trend is strongly influenced by the combined effects of anthropogenic and natural forcings, accounting for 36.8% to the observed increase. Under a 1.5°C warming scenario, warming-wetting regions shift northward, whereas higher warming levels (2°C, 3°C, 4°C) cause these regions to shift southeastward and shrink. Our findings underscore NWC's high sensitivity to climate warming and highlight the pressing challenge of water security in a warming world.

Abstract Image

全球变暖将加大西北地区缺水风险
生态系统脆弱、水资源严重短缺的旱地特别容易受到气候变化的影响。西北地区是典型的干旱区,未来干湿变化趋势存在不确定性。对这些条件进行全面评估和预测对水资源管理至关重要。在这项研究中,我们采用拉格朗日轨迹模型、最优指纹分析和最大协方差技术来评估NWC在历史(1981-2023)和未来(2024-2099)时期的湿润和/或干燥趋势。结果表明,在历史时期,超过80%的NWC经历了气温、降水和蒸发量的增加。外部和内部水汽源对降水变化的贡献率分别为92%和8%。入海水汽主要来自北大西洋(31.9%)和南海-孟加拉湾地区(39.3%),大西洋海面温度与NWC降水减蒸发呈强正相关(r = 0.71)。水蒸气从南部、北部和西部边界进入NWC,而83.4%的水蒸气通过东部边界逃逸。降水趋势受人为强迫和自然强迫共同作用的强烈影响,占观测到的增加的36.8%。在升温1.5°C的情景下,暖湿区向北移动,而更高的升温水平(2°C、3°C、4°C)会导致这些区域向东南移动并缩小。我们的发现强调了NWC对气候变暖的高度敏感性,并强调了在变暖的世界中水安全的紧迫挑战。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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