Reducing Inequities in the Future Air Pollution Health Burden Over Europe

The strategies that policymakers take to mitigate climate change will have considerable implications for human exposure to air quality, with air quality co-benefits anticipated from climate change mitigation. Few studies try to model these co-benefits at a regional scale and even fewer consider health inequalities in their analyses. We analyze the health impacts across Western and Central Europe from exposure to fine particulate matter (${\text{PM}}_{2.5}$) and surface level ozone ($O_3$) in 2014 and in 2050 using three scenarios with different levels of climate change mitigation, using a high-resolution atmospheric chemistry model to simulate future air quality. We use recent health functions to estimate mortality related to the aforementioned pollutants. We also analyze the relationship between air quality mortality rate per 100,000 people and Human Development Index to establish if reductions in air quality mortality are achieved equitably. We find that air quality-related mortality (${\text{PM}}_{2.5}$ + $O_3$ mortality) will only reduce in the future following a high-mitigation scenario (54%). It could increase by 7.5% following a medium-mitigation scenario and by 8.3% following a weak mitigation scenario. The differences are driven by larger reductions in ${\text{PM}}_{2.5}$-related mortality and a small reduction in $O_3$-related mortality following the high-mitigation scenario, whereas for the other scenarios, smaller improvements in ${\text{PM}}_{2.5}$-related mortality are masked by worsening $O_3$-related mortality. We find that less developed regions of European countries have higher mortality rates from ${\text{PM}}_{2.5}$ and $O_3$ exposure in the present day, but that this inequity is reduced following greater climate change mitigation.