Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment最新文献

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Measuring agricultural sustainability: Revisiting Sustainable Development Goal Indicator 2.4.1 and its proxy 衡量农业可持续性:重新审视可持续发展目标指标2.4.1及其替代指标
IF 9.6 1区 经济学
Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100887
Suyu Liu
{"title":"Measuring agricultural sustainability: Revisiting Sustainable Development Goal Indicator 2.4.1 and its proxy","authors":"Suyu Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100887","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100887","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sustainable agriculture is a central target of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with the development of SDG Indicator 2.4.1 to assess the progress towards sustainable agriculture at national and global levels. A 2023 article published in <em>Global Food Security</em> highlighted both the strengths and limitations of this indicator. Since then, despite the tremendous efforts from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the low availability of data has been a challenge for measuring agricultural sustainability with SDG Indicator 2.4.1.</div><div>One of the most notable efforts to address the persistent issue of low data availability is the development of a proxy indicator coordinated by FAO, the custodian agency of SDG Indicator 2.4.1. This perspective article examines the contributions and limitations of the proxy, which uses seven sub-indicators to assess both current status and trends in agricultural sustainability. The proxy significantly improves data availability and enables trend analysis and sub-indicator-level comparisons. However, concerns remain about the ambiguity in its scoring methodology and the penalization of missing data, which may disproportionately affect countries with relatively weaker statistical capacity. This article offers suggestions for improving the proxy's design and implementation, especially alternative methods of treating missing data and wider participation in its further updates with more consideration of national statistical capacity. It also highlights opportunities for future research on cross-SDG interactions and the integration of local knowledge. While the proxy offers a practical interim solution, continued efforts to strengthen national statistical systems remain essential for fully realizing the intent of SDG Indicator 2.4.1.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100887"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145157780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing the impact of hydrological extremes on food security from post-disaster reporting 通过灾后报告评估水文极端事件对粮食安全的影响
IF 9.6 1区 经济学
Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100889
Nikolas Galli, Camilla Govoni, Maria Cristina Rulli
{"title":"Assessing the impact of hydrological extremes on food security from post-disaster reporting","authors":"Nikolas Galli,&nbsp;Camilla Govoni,&nbsp;Maria Cristina Rulli","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100889","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100889","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change can potentially drive variations in the frequency and magnitude of hydrological extremes, and in turn, the impact these events have on agriculture. Agricultural damage resulting from extreme events can significantly affect food security at multiple scales, especially in contexts where pre-existing unfavorable social and economic conditions already hinder the stability and the effectiveness of the food supply chain. In these contexts, formulating approaches to directly quantify food security impacts of extreme events in a way that is compatible with local data availability, but at the same time reliable and transparent, becomes a crucial and urgent matter. Moreover, while the importance of the multifaceted repercussions of agricultural damage on food security has been highlighted in the current literature, investigations on impacts other than reduced crop availability remain understudied. Here, we propose a methodology to derive metrics of food availability, access, and utilization impacts from post-disaster assessments, by putting the affected communities at the core of the analysis, providing perspectives on food stability impacts. We apply the methodology to the severe floods that affected Malawi in the early months of 2015. We find that agricultural losses correspond to food sufficient for feeding more than 300,000 people and for balancing the diet of almost 2.3 million. Food security impacts also appear to disproportionately hit poorer and less food-secure districts. Despite necessary simplifications and associated limitations, the proposed methodology is easily replicable in other post-disaster contexts, allowing to provide more insightful information to policy and practice aimed at post-disaster food security management and restoration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100889"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145693232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Conceptualizing circularity in urban food systems: A scoping review 概念化循环在城市粮食系统:范围审查
IF 9.6 1区 经济学
Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100893
Emily Olsson
{"title":"Conceptualizing circularity in urban food systems: A scoping review","authors":"Emily Olsson","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100893","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100893","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Circularity in urban food systems is increasingly recognized as a promising approach to improve sustainability by reducing waste and closing resource loops. Using a structured search and selection process, 89 peer-reviewed articles were identified and analyzed to determine current research trends, geographic focus, disciplinary backgrounds, methodological approaches, as well as potential benefits and risks. The review revealed that research on circular urban food systems (CUFS) is dominated by environmental and technical studies, particularly in the Global North, with a strong focus on urban agricultural production and waste re-use/valorization. However, the midstream portions of the food value chain (processing, distribution, retail, and consumption) are significantly underexplored, representing a critical gap. Geographically, there is an imbalance in the research, with the majority of studies concentrating on European cities, while fewer studies focus on the Global South. The social and economic dimensions of CUFS, including food security, market development, and livelihood improvements, remain underrepresented, highlighting the need for more interdisciplinary research and frameworks that integrate these aspects. Furthermore, potential risks related to health and safety, governance, and logistical challenges in CUFS have been insufficiently examined. The findings suggest that while CUFS holds great potential for contributing to sustainability, there is a need for more comprehensive and context-sensitive research. Expanding the scope of studies to include social and economic outcomes, addressing the midstream value chain, and focusing on underrepresented regions are essential to fully realize the potential benefits of circular urban food systems for sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100893"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145693236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Striving for food security in a fragile and conflict-affected situation: The unintended consequences of delivering intended outcomes in Afghanistan 在脆弱和受冲突影响的局势中争取粮食安全:在阿富汗实现预期成果的意外后果
IF 9.6 1区 经济学
Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100890
Angus Alexander Davidson, John Leake, Di Zeng, Patrick O'Connor
{"title":"Striving for food security in a fragile and conflict-affected situation: The unintended consequences of delivering intended outcomes in Afghanistan","authors":"Angus Alexander Davidson,&nbsp;John Leake,&nbsp;Di Zeng,&nbsp;Patrick O'Connor","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100890","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100890","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Efforts to improve food security through agricultural development in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCAS) can generate both intended and unintended outcomes. This study investigates yield trends and potential spillover effects associated with the Afghanistan Agricultural Support Programme (ASP), a development aid initiative implemented in Bamyan Province from 2011 to 2017. We combined household survey data from 110 farmers, collected in June 2021, with a 10-year time series of normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) imagery, capturing seasonal mean peak values calibrated to wheat-growing periods, to examine yield patterns among target and non-target populations. NDVI pixel values were aggregated at the valley level and analysed across four categories: target areas, geographically or economically close areas, remote areas, and farmer-reported spillover zones. The analysis revealed convergence of NDVI values between target and non-target valleys during and after the programme period, consistent with the diffusion of improved seed or agronomic practices. These associations are consistent with potential spillover related to the programme's diffusion effects. While such diffusion may enhance food security, it may also carry political implications where programme benefits extend into areas that were intentionally excluded from direct implementation. Monitoring aid diffusion in FCAS thus requires attention to agronomic impact and its intersection with local governance dynamics. Integrating geospatial monitoring and conflict-sensitive evaluation frameworks could strengthen future programming in FCAS.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100890"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145693355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Maize varietal turnover in eastern Africa: Current challenges and future research directions 东非玉米品种周转:当前挑战与未来研究方向
IF 9.6 1区 经济学
Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100888
Hugo De Groote , Sarah W. Kariuki , Michael K. Ndegwa , Mercy Mbugua , Walter Chivasa , Moti Jaleta
{"title":"Maize varietal turnover in eastern Africa: Current challenges and future research directions","authors":"Hugo De Groote ,&nbsp;Sarah W. Kariuki ,&nbsp;Michael K. Ndegwa ,&nbsp;Mercy Mbugua ,&nbsp;Walter Chivasa ,&nbsp;Moti Jaleta","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100888","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100888","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100888"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145693235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How does migration affect the food security and health of children and adults ? 移徙如何影响儿童和成人的粮食安全和健康?
IF 9.6 1区 经济学
Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100879
Yuhan Zhao , Fang Xia , Xiande Li , Chen Qian , Shenggen Fan
{"title":"How does migration affect the food security and health of children and adults ?","authors":"Yuhan Zhao ,&nbsp;Fang Xia ,&nbsp;Xiande Li ,&nbsp;Chen Qian ,&nbsp;Shenggen Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100879","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100879","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Food security and nutrition are crucial for well-being and global development, as emphasized by Sustainable Development Goal 2. Nevertheless, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) continue to face significant challenges related to food insecurity and malnutrition, adversely affecting health throughout the life course—from impaired child development to increased risks of non-communicable diseases in adults. Meanwhile, international migration has emerged as a key livelihood strategy in these regions. While research has explored migration's impact on household well-being, its complex interactions with food security, nutrition, and health across different household members remain underexplored. This study investigates how international migration affects the food security, nutrition, and health of left-behind households in rural Tajikistan. Using a large-scale dataset of 10,742 households and an instrumental variable approach, we find that migration significantly enhances food purchasing power, increases macronutrient intake, and improves diet quality and quantity. While children's health outcomes improve, the incidence of diet-related chronic diseases among adults rises. We also identify nonlinear relationships between migration duration and calorie intake (inverted U-shaped) and the General Dietary Quality Score (U-shaped), reflecting patterns observed in adult hypertension. These findings suggest that Tajikistan and other LMICs should implement policies to promote employment opportunities for rural households to improve food security and nutrition. Additionally, targeted interventions are necessary to ensure balanced nutrition and health education for migrant-sending communities and households with migrants.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100879"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144826988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Resilient and inclusive rural transformation: Pathways towards improved nutrition 韧性和包容性农村转型:改善营养的途径
IF 9.8 1区 经济学
Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100871
Ramya Ambikapathi , Kaleab Baye , Romina Cavatassi , Kate Schneider Lecy , Benjamin Davis , Lynnette M. Neufeld
{"title":"Resilient and inclusive rural transformation: Pathways towards improved nutrition","authors":"Ramya Ambikapathi ,&nbsp;Kaleab Baye ,&nbsp;Romina Cavatassi ,&nbsp;Kate Schneider Lecy ,&nbsp;Benjamin Davis ,&nbsp;Lynnette M. Neufeld","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100871","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100871","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rural transformation refers to a shift in rural economies from predominantly subsistence-oriented production with low incomes to more productive, diversified activities integrated into national markets. Such transformation has spurred economic growth, reduced poverty, and facilitated nutrition transition. However, the associated agrifood systems have proven largely unsustainable, as they are subject to biodiversity loss, increased global warming, and mixed impacts on dietary and nutrition outcomes. This paper combines multi-disciplinary reflections on the pathways towards more resilient and inclusive rural transformation. We first identify four well-established nutrition challenges to addressing: i) rural inequality in building human capital and its associated social determinants for rural transformation; ii) rising double malnutrition burdens in low- and middle-income countries; iii) recognizing that food environment is a key determinant of access to healthy diets; and iv) profound inequality in dietary and nutrition outcomes under an increasing number of shocks. We consider these challenges alongside four emerging priorities that require greater emphasis for resilient and inclusive rural transformation: i) Explicit focus on inclusivity; ii) Respecting Indigenous people's roles; iii) Addressing spatial changes to rural landscapes and implications on dietary transitions; and iv) Considering rural livelihood diversification, migration, and food environment for resilient and inclusive rural transformation. Finally, we propose expanding existing agricultural pathways towards improved diets for nutrition by integrating a stronger focus on gender, climate adaptation and resilience, policy coherence, and value chain linkages to address multiple forms of malnutrition while remaining within planetary boundaries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100871"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144605920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Resilient and inclusive rural transformation: Exploring pathways for sustainable development 韧性和包容性农村转型:探索可持续发展之路
IF 9.8 1区 经济学
Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100868
Benjamin Davis , Romina Cavatassi , Leslie Lipper , Ken E. Giller
{"title":"Resilient and inclusive rural transformation: Exploring pathways for sustainable development","authors":"Benjamin Davis ,&nbsp;Romina Cavatassi ,&nbsp;Leslie Lipper ,&nbsp;Ken E. Giller","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100868","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100868","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100868"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144307588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Increasing inequality in agri-food value chains: global trends from 1995-2020 农业食品价值链不平等加剧:1995-2020年全球趋势
IF 9.6 1区 经济学
Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100883
Meghna Goyal , Jason Hickel , Praveen Jha
{"title":"Increasing inequality in agri-food value chains: global trends from 1995-2020","authors":"Meghna Goyal ,&nbsp;Jason Hickel ,&nbsp;Praveen Jha","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100883","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100883","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agri-food systems are increasingly globalised. In the last three decades, as national food systems have become more interdependent, the distribution of productive activities and economic value between different actors and countries has changed. Prior research on domestic agri-food value chains has shown that the farm share of food-system income has declined consistently, while post-farmgate sectors capture the majority of income. Market concentration in post-farmgate sectors is high in industrialised economies and is driving food-system transformations in developing economies. Here, we extend this analysis to assess the global distributional consequences of food-system transformations for the first time. We use multi-regional input-output data to disaggregate food expenditures between different countries and sectors across agri-food value chains, from 1995 to 2020. We arrive at several main findings: 1) agricultural production for food and industrial inputs has increasingly shifted to the global South, 2) global food-system income is increasingly captured by post-farm activities in the global North, and 3) a substantial share of food-system income is captured in low-tax jurisdictions with low agricultural production. These findings demonstrate that the contemporary agri-food system and agricultural trade are skewing the distribution of economic returns away from agricultural producers in the global South.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100883"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145094956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
It's time to consider global catastrophic food failures 是时候考虑全球灾难性的粮食短缺了
IF 9.6 1区 经济学
Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100880
Noah J. Wescombe , Juan Garcia Martínez , Florian Ulrich Jehn , Nico Wunderling , Asaf Tzachor , Vilma Sandström , Michael Cassidy , Rachel Ainsworth , David Denkenberger
{"title":"It's time to consider global catastrophic food failures","authors":"Noah J. Wescombe ,&nbsp;Juan Garcia Martínez ,&nbsp;Florian Ulrich Jehn ,&nbsp;Nico Wunderling ,&nbsp;Asaf Tzachor ,&nbsp;Vilma Sandström ,&nbsp;Michael Cassidy ,&nbsp;Rachel Ainsworth ,&nbsp;David Denkenberger","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100880","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100880","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Food systems today face interconnected, systemic risks that could culminate in widespread disruptions triggering extreme global famine, in addition to neglected extreme risks. This paper introduces the concept of Global Catastrophic Food Failure (GCFF) to describe such scenarios; where food shortages overwhelm response capacities of governments and private sectors, necessitating extraordinary interventions. A GCFF could be triggered by various mechanisms including: abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios from a volcanic winter (like a Tambora-scale eruption), nuclear winter, or asteroid impact that could cause near-total agricultural collapse; multiple breadbasket failures from synchronous extreme weather events causing &gt;10 % yield losses; collapse of critical climate systems like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that could eliminate half of wheat and maize cultivation zones; or cascading disruptions to global trade and agricultural inputs (fertilizers, fuel, machinery) that could reduce crop production by up to 40 % across staples. These events would be characterized by rapid onset, extended duration over multiple years, extreme magnitude affecting global food supply by 5–10 % or more, and limited resilience exceeding normal coping mechanisms. While the exact likelihood of certain GCFF scenarios is uncertain, forecasts over the century indicate a probability of over 10 % for each of: a large climate-changing eruption, a nuclear war, and an AMOC collapse. Currently, GCFF is a blind spot requiring research and policy efforts to strengthen food systems' resilience and capacity to sustain humanity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100880"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144886034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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