{"title":"Future foodscape: Impact of population decline and aging on China's dietary carbon footprint and food security","authors":"Wenling Liu , Guodong Zhang , Xinzhu Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100875","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100875","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The food system is a major contributor to global climate change, making its decarbonization and sustainable transformation a critical area of academic inquiry. As many countries, including China, experience rapid population aging, new challenges emerge for reducing food-related carbon emissions. Variations in dietary preferences and entrenched eating habits across age groups introduce substantial uncertainty into projections of future dietary carbon footprints. This study analyzes age-specific dietary carbon emissions, simulates the impact of demographic aging on China's food-related emissions, and explores the drivers of dietary transitions. Using microdata from the 2014 China Urban Household Survey, we simulate the effects of demographic changes—both in population size and structure—and potential shifts in dietary behavior. The results indicate that total dietary carbon emissions are likely to peak and then decline around 2030 due to population contraction. However, per capita emissions will increase as the population ages. Health-oriented dietary transitions and technological advancements in agriculture could reduce emissions by approximately 10 %–13 % and 22 %–26 %, respectively. Although the dietary system may face reduced carbon pressure, other systemic risks could arise. Notably, aging may lead to a decline in the agricultural workforce, exacerbating mismatches between labor supply and food demand, and posing additional risks to food security. These findings underscore the need for improved agricultural efficiency, technological innovation, and a carefully coordinated approach to urbanization and rural revitalization strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100875"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144686502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gustavo Anríquez , Fabrizio Quiñónez , William Foster
{"title":"Levelling the farm fields: A cross-country study of the determinants of gender-based yield gaps","authors":"Gustavo Anríquez , Fabrizio Quiñónez , William Foster","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100873","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100873","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the last decade there has been growing global attention to the problem of female farmers lagging in terms of agricultural productivity compared with male farmers. The present study returns to the question of gender-based differences in farm productivity, decomposing differences in farm yields between male and female farmers. We identify one part of the gap explained by differences in attributes and access to productive assets, and another part explained by differences in returns to assets and attributes (i.e. “unexplained” differences). This paper applies the Kitagawa-Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition to gender-based productivity gaps using nationally representative household surveys from 11 developing countries from Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. We estimate productivity models for each country utilizing a comparable set of explanatory assets and attributes. We also implement a comparable decomposition of observed productivity gaps. The cross-country meta-analysis shows that observed total gaps in productivity by gender do not always favor male farmers; the decomposition of these gaps, however, reveals that female farmers generally face gender-specific constraints that manifest as lower returns to attributes and assets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100873"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144696955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Ecological functional diversity predicts nutritional functional diversity in complex agroforests","authors":"Ashley McGuigan , Rachel Novotny , Veniana Tikonavuli , Unaisi Vuli , Abrania Marrero , Tamara Ticktin","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100870","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100870","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Biodiversity loss and rising noncommunicable disease incidences are among the greatest global challenges we face. These crises are deeply interconnected and shaped by varied food system dynamics, including the prioritization of large-scale, inexpensive food production, at the cost of externalized environmental and human health impacts. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate these challenges. Agroecological systems are increasingly promoted as a viable solution toward more resilient, nutritious, sustainable, and climate-adaptive food systems. However, the mechanisms linking biodiversity and climate sensitive management practices with potential nutritional contributions in these food production systems remain underexplored. In agroecosystems, the functional diversity of ecological traits supports resilience to disturbance and food security, while the functional diversity of nutritional traits influences the system's nutritional potential to support nutritional adequacy and human health. Using a trait-based framework, we quantified ecological and nutritional functional diversity in 48 Indigenous agroforests in Fiji. We found that agroforests with higher ecological functional diversity of response traits exhibit significantly greater nutritional functional diversity, suggesting that managing for ecological resilience may also enhance the nutritional potential of food production systems. These findings offer a novel empirical bridge between ecological function and nutrient provisioning, and highlight the importance of maintaining agrobiodiversity to support both environmental and human health in efforts to transform global food systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100870"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144662700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Gender gap in agricultural labour productivity: A comparison across African countries","authors":"Natalia Piedrahita, Valentina Costa, Erdgin Mane","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100872","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100872","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In sub-Saharan Africa, where women constitute half of the agricultural workforce, their productivity is often constrained by limited access to productive resources and discriminatory practices. This study uses data from the World Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study–Integrated Surveys on Agriculture in Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania to examine gender gaps in agricultural labour productivity. Employing the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition approach, we analyse the primary factors contributing to the observed productivity disparities across these countries. Our findings reveal that labour productivity is highest among male-managed plots, with an average gap of 33 percent with variations across countries ranging from 10 percent in Ethiopia to 47 percent in Uganda. The findings suggest that the endowment effect is the leading driver of the gender gap in all countries except northern Nigeria and Uganda, where the structural effect predominates. The higher productivity among male-managed plots is primarily driven by differential access to inputs, including labour and non-labour inputs, managerial and household characteristics. Compared to jointly managed plots, the results suggest a nuanced relationship for female-managed plots with a non-significant relationship in northern and southern Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Tanzania, whereas female-managed plots are more productive in Uganda and less productive in Malawi.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100872"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144662701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ramya Ambikapathi , Kaleab Baye , Romina Cavatassi , Kate Schneider Lecy , Benjamin Davis , Lynnette M. Neufeld
{"title":"Resilient and inclusive rural transformation: Pathways towards improved nutrition","authors":"Ramya Ambikapathi , Kaleab Baye , Romina Cavatassi , Kate Schneider Lecy , Benjamin Davis , Lynnette M. Neufeld","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100871","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100871","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rural transformation refers to a shift in rural economies from predominantly subsistence-oriented production with low incomes to more productive, diversified activities integrated into national markets. Such transformation has spurred economic growth, reduced poverty, and facilitated nutrition transition. However, the associated agrifood systems have proven largely unsustainable, as they are subject to biodiversity loss, increased global warming, and mixed impacts on dietary and nutrition outcomes. This paper combines multi-disciplinary reflections on the pathways towards more resilient and inclusive rural transformation. We first identify four well-established nutrition challenges to addressing: i) rural inequality in building human capital and its associated social determinants for rural transformation; ii) rising double malnutrition burdens in low- and middle-income countries; iii) recognizing that food environment is a key determinant of access to healthy diets; and iv) profound inequality in dietary and nutrition outcomes under an increasing number of shocks. We consider these challenges alongside four emerging priorities that require greater emphasis for resilient and inclusive rural transformation: i) Explicit focus on inclusivity; ii) Respecting Indigenous people's roles; iii) Addressing spatial changes to rural landscapes and implications on dietary transitions; and iv) Considering rural livelihood diversification, migration, and food environment for resilient and inclusive rural transformation. Finally, we propose expanding existing agricultural pathways towards improved diets for nutrition by integrating a stronger focus on gender, climate adaptation and resilience, policy coherence, and value chain linkages to address multiple forms of malnutrition while remaining within planetary boundaries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100871"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144605920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Debashis Roy , Steven A. Gillespie , Md Sarwar Hossain
{"title":"Revisiting the drought-food insecurity nexus: a social-ecological systems perspective","authors":"Debashis Roy , Steven A. Gillespie , Md Sarwar Hossain","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100874","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100874","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the era of Anthropocene, drought frequency and severity are projected to increase globally, posing significant challenges in achieving food security (SDG 2). While remarkable progress has been made in drought and food insecurity research, relatively few studies have attempted to capture the inherent complexity of the drought-food insecurity nexus, particularly the interactions and feedback between ecological and social systems. An example of a feedback loop is that, as drought reduces crop production and heightens food insecurity, it can also lead to greater reliance on irrigation, which in turn depletes water resources, thereby exacerbating drought conditions. Moreover, the traditional approach of viewing drought as a natural phenomenon and food insecurity as a social phenomenon indicates flaws in assessing and monitoring the drought-food insecurity nexus. In this perspective, we propose a social-ecological systems (SES) approach that holistically integrates these dimensions, emphasizing the complex interactions and feedback that characterize the drought-food insecurity nexus. We also present a conceptual SES model developed in the context of the regional drought-food insecurity nexus in Bangladesh and discuss its implications in future research. We argue that cross-sectoral collaboration is needed for identifying leverage points and designing policy interventions to achieve food security targets. We also suggest that future research needs to consider all the complex relationships and trade-offs between social and ecological systems to inform sustainable policy development relating to achieving food security (SDG 2) by 2030 and long-after.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100874"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Marwan Benali , Vanya Slavchevska , Natalia Piedrahita , Benjamin Davis , Nicholas Sitko , Carlo Azzarri , Gianluigi Nico , Dung Thi Le , Jessika Kluth
{"title":"The agrifood-system wage gap and structural transformation: cross-country evidence","authors":"Marwan Benali , Vanya Slavchevska , Natalia Piedrahita , Benjamin Davis , Nicholas Sitko , Carlo Azzarri , Gianluigi Nico , Dung Thi Le , Jessika Kluth","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100851","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100851","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Evidence from high income countries shows that the gender pay gap in wage employment has decreased over time, though it has not closed. However, little evidence exists on how the gender wage gap varies as countries undergo processes of structural transformation that lead to rising wages and a shift in employment from primary agricultural production. Disaggregating agricultural, agrifood-system and non-agrifood-system wage employment, this study provides empirical estimates of the gender pay gap across countries at different stages of structural transformation. Based on a multi-country dataset and using the Kitagawa-Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition approach, the study sheds light on the different factors driving the pay gap along the structural transformation process. Our analysis shows significant gender gaps in both agrifood systems and non-agrifood systems that do not always decrease with structural transformation. Both differences in female and male employee's observed characteristics and differences in returns continue to contribute to gender gaps, suggesting the need for gender-responsive policies to address the underlying factors that drive these gaps.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100851"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144518241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Judith Lieber , Sanjay Kinra , Srivalli Addanki , Swarnaa Prabhakar , Santhi Bhogadi , Poppy A.C. Mallinson , Anura V. Kurpad , Helen L. Walls , Bharati Kulkarni , Shilpa Aggarwal , Richa Pande , Kiruthika Selvaraj , Arindam Debbarma , Sarang Deo , Nanda Kishore Kannuri
{"title":"Unintended consequences of a financial incentive scheme for fruit and vegetable purchasing in an unorganised retail setting in rural India","authors":"Judith Lieber , Sanjay Kinra , Srivalli Addanki , Swarnaa Prabhakar , Santhi Bhogadi , Poppy A.C. Mallinson , Anura V. Kurpad , Helen L. Walls , Bharati Kulkarni , Shilpa Aggarwal , Richa Pande , Kiruthika Selvaraj , Arindam Debbarma , Sarang Deo , Nanda Kishore Kannuri","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100869","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100869","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Consumption of fruits and vegetables in rural India is among the lowest in the world. We assessed how a financial incentive scheme influenced purchasing of fruits and vegetables in an unorganised retail setting in rural India and explored any unintended consequences. We used a mixed-methods approach, triangulating between in-depth interviews with community members, vendors, local leaders, and intervention implementors (N = 21) and fruit and vegetable purchasing surveys (N = 1109), vendor sales surveys (N = 36), and routine coupon use data. The intervention led households to use their own budgets to buy fruits and vegetables and receive the cashback. This was used to buy more fruits and vegetables (45 % and 77 % of intervention participants, respectively). Changes in purchasing behaviours unexpectedly increased farmer-to-consumer sales in the village markets. This increased the variety of fruit and vegetables purchased locally (baseline-adjusted mean difference of 2.2 items in intervention versus control villages (95 % CI: −0.7 to 5.1)) but may have negatively impacted the sales of existing vendors (baseline-adjusted mean difference of −150₹ in intervention versus control villages (95 % CI: −296 to −0.1). Financial incentive schemes have the potential to change the food environment in unorganised retail settings, which could have major consequences for diets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100869"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144298114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Robert H. Beach, Caleb Milliken, Kirsten Franzen, Daniel Lapidus
{"title":"Meta-analysis of the impacts of digital information interventions on agricultural development","authors":"Robert H. Beach, Caleb Milliken, Kirsten Franzen, Daniel Lapidus","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100866","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100866","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital means of delivering advisory and other information services to small-scale agricultural producers are widely expected to expand the reach of extension and other information provision services while reducing costs. However, there is currently little evidence systematically quantifying these benefits. In this paper, we synthesize quantitative information on the impacts of digital information interventions, which may integrate human support, on adoption of modern farm inputs (fertilizer and improved seeds), yield, and income, covering interventions implemented between 2005 and 2019. Our starting point for the meta-analysis was the Agriculture in the Digital Age Evidence Gap Map dataset, which provided a consistent set of studies of digital interventions, though one limitation is that it excludes more recent studies published after 2021. After applying our criteria for relevance, rigor, and availability of necessary data, we used estimates from 20 studies in our analyses where fifteen were from Sub-Saharan Africa, four from India, and one from Cambodia. Mean impacts of digital information interventions on adoption of fertilizer (+23 %; 95 % CI +6 % to +40 %), yield (+6 %; +2 % to +9 %), and income (+6 %; +2 % to +9 %) are positive while effects on adoption of improved seeds were not statistically significant. Although our analysis indicates that digital farmer services have provided benefits on average, there is considerable variability in estimates across individual studies. However, there are not enough comparable quantitative observations from the literature included within our study population to reliably further disaggregate estimated impacts (e.g., by intervention, level of human assistance, geography, modality of information delivery, farmer type). Expansion of the available evidence base to facilitate quantification of these heterogeneous impacts is needed to better inform program design to maximize effectiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100866"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144222119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}