Journal of Monetary Economics最新文献

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People’s understanding of inflation 人们对通货膨胀的理解
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103652
Alberto Binetti , Francesco Nuzzi , Stefanie Stantcheva
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引用次数: 0
Comments on Alberto Binetti, Francesco Nuzzi, and Stefanie Stantcheva “people's understanding of inflation” 对 Alberto Binetti、Francesco Nuzzi 和 Stefanie Stantcheva "人们对通货膨胀的理解 "的评论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103674
Robert J. Shiller
{"title":"Comments on Alberto Binetti, Francesco Nuzzi, and Stefanie Stantcheva “people's understanding of inflation”","authors":"Robert J. Shiller","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103674","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103674","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103674"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142263189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comments on “Lessons from history for successful disinflation” by Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer 对 Christina D. Romer 和 David H. Romer 所著 "从历史中汲取成功解除通货紧缩的经验教训 "的评论罗默和 David H. Romer
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103646
Donald Kohn
{"title":"Comments on “Lessons from history for successful disinflation” by Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer","authors":"Donald Kohn","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103646","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103646","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In these comments I extend the Romers' analysis to 1982–95, when inflation fell from 6 % to effective price stability with only one small recession. The Fed accomplished this, despite being only “moderately committed” to disinflation in the Romer classification, through careful weighing of shifting costs and benefits from tightening as inflation continued to moderate. Though policy backed off several times before stability was clearly in sight, success resulted from keeping focus on the ultimate price stability goal, pre-empting surges in inflation, and paying close attention to expectations. I close with suggestions about how the Fed can strengthen its price stability commitment in the 5-year review of its policy framework slated to begin in 2024.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103646"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141839379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflation: What we have learned and what we need to know 通货膨胀:我们学到了什么和我们需要知道什么
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103656
Jan Hatzius
{"title":"Inflation: What we have learned and what we need to know","authors":"Jan Hatzius","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103656","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103656","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We discuss the lessons that economic forecasters have learned about inflation since the Covid shock. First, physical shortages—e.g., in the auto sector—can push up goods prices much more dramatically than most forecasters expected following several decades near price stability. Second, imbalances in the rental housing market can sharply increase inflation and keep it high, especially in economies such as the US where rents are used to impute owner-occupied housing costs. Third, the jobs-workers gap can be a better measure of labor market balance than the unemployment rate or the employment/population ratio.</div><div>Originally prepared for the Spring 2024 NBER conference on “Inflation in the Covid era and beyond”.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103656"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Discussion of “Understanding the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020” 讨论 "了解 2020 年以来国际通胀的涨跌"
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103685
Susanto Basu
{"title":"Discussion of “Understanding the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020”","authors":"Susanto Basu","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103685","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103685","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This discussion comments on the ambitious paper, “Understanding the International Rise and Fall of Inflation Since 2020,” by Mai Chi Dao, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Daniel Leigh, and Prachi Mishra. The strengths of the DGLM paper are manifest. There is much to learn from it, both about the commonalities of the inflation experiences of this large group of important countries and their differences, and I draw some lessons and policy implications. I will suggest that one could have learned even more if the authors had devoted some of their effort to comparing the recent global inflation episode to earlier experiences, and if they had related their empirical specification and results to predictions of models with search frictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103685"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142592894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices 货币政策的长滞后和可变滞后:来自分类价格指数的证据
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103635
S. Borağan Aruoba, Thomas Drechsel
{"title":"The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices","authors":"S. Borağan Aruoba,&nbsp;Thomas Drechsel","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103635","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103635","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how monetary policy affects subcomponents of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) using local projections. Following a monetary policy contraction, the response of aggregate PCEPI turns significantly negative after over three years. There are stark differences in the timing and magnitude of the responses across price categories, including some prices that show an initially positive response. We discuss theoretical interpretations of our findings and point to useful directions for future theoretical research. We also show how to re-aggregate our cross-sectional estimates and their standard errors, taking into account dependence between different prices using a Seemingly Unrelated Regression approach. Re-aggregation exercises show that changes in expenditure behavior have not accelerated the long-lagged response of inflation to monetary policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103635"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141871725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tariff wars, unemployment, and top incomes 关税战、失业和最高收入
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103616
{"title":"Tariff wars, unemployment, and top incomes","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103616","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103616","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>Motivated by the 2018–19 global tariff war, we develop a multi-country trade model with occupational choice, heterogeneous firms, and unemployment. The model features a complete tariff pass-through and positive </span>optimal tariffs<span> addressing product and labor-market distortions. The quantitative analysis of the model with four countries/regions shows that raising tariffs unilaterally by a country increases welfare but also raises unemployment and top incomes in that country, whereas having the opposite impact on tariff-targeted countries. A global tariff war reduces every country’s welfare, unemployment, and top-income inequality, whereas moving from a worldwide tariff war to free trade raises every country’s welfare, unemployment, and top-income inequality.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103616"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141408635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tiers of joy? Reserve tiering and bank behavior in a negative-rate environment 层级之乐?负利率环境下的储备分级和银行行为
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103614
{"title":"Tiers of joy? Reserve tiering and bank behavior in a negative-rate environment","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103614","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103614","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Negative interest rate regimes typically involve reserve tiering to exempt a portion of bank reserves from negative rates. We study the effects on bank behavior of a large and unanticipated change in reserve tiering by the Swiss National Bank that generated substantial variation across banks and was not related to other events. We find a sizable reallocation of liquidity and deposits within the banking system. Higher exemptions reduce the pass-through of negative rates to deposit rates, especially at retail banks with limited access to the interbank market. Effects on lending are moderate and suggest that higher profitability lessens pressure to reach for yield. Our results are informative about the transmission channels of monetary policy through the banking sector more broadly. We discuss how effects of reserve tiering may differ from effects of changes in interest rates, emphasizing that reserve tiering affects the economy through a narrower set of channels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103614"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141412880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How to fund unemployment insurance with informality and false claims: Evidence from Senegal 如何资助非正规和虚假索赔的失业保险:来自塞内加尔的证据
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103699
Abdoulaye Ndiaye , Kyle Herkenhoff , Abdoulaye Cissé , Alessandro Dell’Acqua , Ahmadou A. Mbaye
{"title":"How to fund unemployment insurance with informality and false claims: Evidence from Senegal","authors":"Abdoulaye Ndiaye ,&nbsp;Kyle Herkenhoff ,&nbsp;Abdoulaye Cissé ,&nbsp;Alessandro Dell’Acqua ,&nbsp;Ahmadou A. Mbaye","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103699","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103699","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the welfare effects from the provision of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits in a context where formal workers represent only a small proportion of the labor market and informal workers can submit fraudulent claims for UI benefits. We model these features and allow for varying degrees of enforcement and different funding sources. We then estimate the model’s key parameters by conducting a custom labor force survey in Senegal. Our findings show that the liquidity gains are large and the moral hazard response to the UI benefits among workers is relatively small: an extra dollar of UI benefits yields a consumption-equivalent gain of 60–90 cents, which exceeds comparable estimates from U.S. calibrations by a factor of three to sixteen. We then show that the welfare gains depend on the program design: UI funded through payroll taxes delivers the greatest welfare gains but becomes infeasible when there are few formal workers and high rates of fraudulent claims. On the other hand, UI funded through consumption taxes delivers lower welfare gains but remains feasible with high informality and false claims.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103699"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143372970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Who bears the costs of inflation? Euro area households and the 2021–2023 shock 谁来承担通货膨胀的成本?欧元区家庭与 2021-2023 年冲击
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103671
Filippo Pallotti , Gonzalo Paz-Pardo , Jiri Slacalek , Oreste Tristani , Giovanni L. Violante
{"title":"Who bears the costs of inflation? Euro area households and the 2021–2023 shock","authors":"Filippo Pallotti ,&nbsp;Gonzalo Paz-Pardo ,&nbsp;Jiri Slacalek ,&nbsp;Oreste Tristani ,&nbsp;Giovanni L. Violante","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103671","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103671","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We measure the heterogeneous first-order welfare effects of the recent inflation surge across households in the euro area. A simple framework illustrating the numerous transmission channels of surprise inflation to household welfare guides our empirical exercise. By combining micro data and aggregate time series, we conclude that: (i) country-level average welfare costs – expressed as a share of triennial income – were sizable and heterogeneous: around 3% in France and Spain, 7% in Germany, and 9% in Italy; (ii) this inflation episode resembles an age-dependent tax, with the retirees losing up to 14%, and roughly half of the 25–44 year-old winning; (iii) losses were quite uniform across consumption quantiles because rigid rents served as a hedge for the poor; (iv) nominal net positions were the key driver of heterogeneity across-households; (v) the rise in energy prices generated vast variation in individual-level inflation rates, but unconventional fiscal policies helped shield households. The counterpart of this household-sector loss is a significant gain for the government.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103671"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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