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Geography versus income: The heterogeneous effects of carbon taxation 地理与收入：碳税的异质效应
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-07-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103962
Charles Labrousse, Yann Perdereau
{"title":"Geography versus income: The heterogeneous effects of carbon taxation","authors":"Charles Labrousse,&nbsp;Yann Perdereau","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103962","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103962","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The distributive effects of carbon taxation are critical for its political acceptability and depend on both income and geographic factors. Using French administrative data, household surveys, and matched employer–employee records, we document that rural households spend 2.8 times more on fossil fuels than urban households and work in firms that emit 2.7 times more greenhouse gases. We incorporate these facts into a spatial heterogeneous-agent model with migration, housing and wealth accumulation, bridging spatial and macroeconomic approaches. Carbon taxes generate 56% larger welfare losses for rural households than for urban households, as the former may be trapped due to mobility frictions and homeownership. While uniform or income-based rebates reduce inequality along the income dimension, they leave large spatial disparities that must be offset through location-based transfers. These results suggest that carbon policies should account for spatial differences to improve political feasibility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103962"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148526614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Payment data, information disclosure, and privacy 支付数据、信息披露和隐私
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103957
Kee-Youn Kang, Zijian Wang
{"title":"Payment data, information disclosure, and privacy","authors":"Kee-Youn Kang,&nbsp;Zijian Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103957","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103957","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops a general equilibrium framework to examine the welfare implications of aggregate-demand information derived from payment data. The disclosure of such information tends to improve aggregate welfare when interest rates are low but may reduce welfare when rates are high. If a central bank controls information disclosure, it can craft noisy messages that encourage investment and benefit welfare through a form of Bayesian persuasion. If the information is instead produced by private banks and traded in a competitive market, excessive information production may happen. Finally, privacy concerns may dissuade some consumers from using digital payments, thereby decreasing the precision of aggregate-demand information, but it need not reduce welfare.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103957"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148526611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unconventional monetary policy spillovers and the (in)convenience of Treasuries 非常规货币政策的溢出效应和美国国债的（非）便利性
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103956
Karlye Dilts Stedman, Andrew Hanson
{"title":"Unconventional monetary policy spillovers and the (in)convenience of Treasuries","authors":"Karlye Dilts Stedman,&nbsp;Andrew Hanson","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103956","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103956","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Foreign monetary policy shocks increasingly influence U.S. yields, particularly since the Global Financial Crisis. We show that this heightened sensitivity reflects both the adoption of unconventional monetary policy tools and a decline in the convenience of Treasuries. Using high frequency identification, we find that when Treasuries command a low convenience premium — behaving more like other assets — they respond more to ECB monetary policy, consistent with increased sensitivity to portfolio rebalancing. A two-country preferred-habitat model with time-varying covariance of yields rationalizes these results: when Treasuries are less convenient, they become closer substitutes for foreign equivalents, amplifying cross-border transmission of policy shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103956"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148526608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Central bank communication by ??? The economics of monetary policy leaks 央行通讯由？？货币政策的经济学原理泄露了
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103959
Michael Ehrmann, Phillipp Gnan, Kilian Rieder
{"title":"Central bank communication by ??? The economics of monetary policy leaks","authors":"Michael Ehrmann,&nbsp;Phillipp Gnan,&nbsp;Kilian Rieder","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103959","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103959","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a novel database of media-reported anonymous leaks about monetary policy in the euro area, we conduct the first systematic empirical analysis of these confidential information disclosures originating from central banks. Our database reveals that Eurosystem leaks are frequent — in particular relative to leaks from other major central banks. We provide evidence that many Eurosystem leaks are likely not accidents, but placed strategically by insiders. Exploiting high-frequency financial market reactions to leaks, we find that they have large effects on markets relative to standard monetary surprises, often exceeding the impact of attributed statements by policy-makers. Yet, mainly reflecting minority opinions, leaks do not usually lock in decision-making. Post-meeting leaks regularly reveal information about dissent on the committee, changing market perceptions about the strength of the policy signal. Post-meeting leaks thereby reverse some of the initial market effect of official policy announcements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103959"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148526610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Disincentive effects of unemployment insurance benefits 失业保险福利的抑制效应
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103958
Andreas Hornstein, Marios Karabarbounis, André Kurmann, Etienne Lalé, Lien Ta
{"title":"Disincentive effects of unemployment insurance benefits","authors":"Andreas Hornstein,&nbsp;Marios Karabarbounis,&nbsp;André Kurmann,&nbsp;Etienne Lalé,&nbsp;Lien Ta","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103958","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103958","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Unemployment insurance (UI) acts both as a disincentive for labor supply and as a demand stimulus, which may explain why empirical studies often find limited effects of UI on employment. This paper provides independent estimates of the disincentive effects arising from the largest expansion of UI in U.S. history, the pandemic unemployment benefits. Using high-frequency data for a representative sample of restaurants and retailers, we control for demand effects by comparing neighboring businesses that largely share the positive impact of UI stimulus. We find that employment in low-wage businesses recovered more slowly than employment in neighboring high-wage businesses in labor markets with larger differences in the relative generosity of pandemic UI benefits. According to a labor search model that replicates the estimated employment differences between low- and high-wage businesses, the disincentive effects from the pandemic UI programs held back the aggregate employment recovery by 3.4 percentage points, which represents around 20 percent of the overall employment loss in the Leisure and Hospitality sector between April and December 2020.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103958"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148526612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating macroeconomic outcomes under asymmetries: Expectations matter 评估不对称下的宏观经济结果：预期很重要
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103961
Brent Bundick, Isabel Cairó, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau
{"title":"Evaluating macroeconomic outcomes under asymmetries: Expectations matter","authors":"Brent Bundick,&nbsp;Isabel Cairó,&nbsp;Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103961","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103961","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Asymmetries play an important role in many macroeconomic models. We show that assumptions on household and firm expectations play a key role in determining the effects of these asymmetries on macroeconomic outcomes. If households and firms have perfect foresight and hence do not account for the possibility of future shocks, then the implied longer-run averages and distributions can differ significantly from their rational expectations counterparts. We first derive this result analytically in a standard New Keynesian environment under either an asymmetric monetary policy rule or a nonlinear Phillips curve before numerically examining some of the key nonlinearities featured in the recent literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103961"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148526609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spread too thin: The impact of lean inventories 分散太细：精简库存的影响
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103932
Julio L. Ortiz
{"title":"Spread too thin: The impact of lean inventories","authors":"Julio L. Ortiz","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103932","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103932","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Widespread adoption of just-in-time (JIT) production has reduced inventory holdings. This paper measures the share of publicly traded manufacturing firms that adopted JIT since 1980 and quantifies a trade-off created by JIT between firm profitability and vulnerability to supply disruptions. Empirically, JIT adopters experience higher sales and less volatility on average while also exhibiting heightened sensitivity to aggregate supply chain pressures. I explain these facts in a structurally estimated general equilibrium model of JIT production. Relative to a counterfactual economy without JIT, the baseline model implies higher firm profitability in normal times but a deeper contraction amid a supply disruption. Moreover, a transition to an equilibrium with less JIT and larger inventory buffers leads to a roughly 4% output loss.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 103932"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147612071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
FraNK: Fragmentation in the NK Model 弗兰克：朝鲜模式的碎片化
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103933
Alessandro Moro, Valerio Nispi Landi
{"title":"FraNK: Fragmentation in the NK Model","authors":"Alessandro Moro,&nbsp;Valerio Nispi Landi","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103933","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103933","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We set up a multi-country New Keynesian model to study the effects of a geoeconomic fragmentation shock, modeled as an increase in the tax rates on goods, commodities, and bonds purchased from rival countries. First, we derive a closed-form solution of the model by using a symmetric calibration on two blocs of countries, and we show analytically that geoeconomic fragmentation reduces output. The effect on PPI inflation is ambiguous, depending positively on the importance of commodities in the production function. Then, we calibrate the model to five regions (the United States, their allies, China, a China-led bloc, and the neutral rest of the world), and we find that fragmentation predominantly affects China, the China-aligned bloc, and the US allies, with these countries experiencing larger declines in production and consumption. In contrast, the US are relatively shielded from the shock given their limited exposure to the rival bloc. The spillovers to neutral countries are negligible.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 103933"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147612069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cash or card? A structural model of payment choices 付现金还是刷卡？付费选择的结构模型
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103930
Francesco Lippi , Elia Moracci
{"title":"Cash or card? A structural model of payment choices","authors":"Francesco Lippi ,&nbsp;Elia Moracci","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103930","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103930","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use a large granular dataset to analyze the households’ choice between cash and card payments. Empirically, both the <em>size of the transaction</em> and the amount of <em>cash on hand</em> appear as significant covariates of the payment choice. We unveil a novel interaction between these two variables: the critical size for a card purchase depends on the amount of cash on hand. We present a tractable model of payment choices, featuring non-universal acceptance of cards by merchants, and a random expenditure flow. The model generates a precautionary motive for holding a cash buffer: cards are used to avoid “running out of cash”, accounting for the interaction discussed before. We use a calibrated version of the model to quantify the benefits of card ownership, the welfare costs of imperfect card acceptance by merchants, and to identify conditions under which a <em>cashless economy</em> emerges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 103930"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147612068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy 劳动力市场冲击与货币政策
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103928
Serdar Birinci , Fatih Karahan , Yusuf Mercan , Kurt See
{"title":"Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy","authors":"Serdar Birinci ,&nbsp;Fatih Karahan ,&nbsp;Yusuf Mercan ,&nbsp;Kurt See","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103928","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103928","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with a frictional labor market and on-the-job search to study how employer-to-employer (EE) transitions affect macroeconomic outcomes and monetary policy. We show that accounting for market incompleteness quantitatively alters the positive and normative implications of EE fluctuations. Under imperfect self-insurance, when a higher EE rate causes higher inflation and a higher real interest rate, wealthy individuals — who are more sensitive to interest rate changes — cut consumption by more. As a result, an economy with perfect self-insurance overestimates the decline in aggregate demand when the EE rate is higher. The optimal simple monetary policy rule responds to inflationary pressures from a higher EE rate by raising the nominal rate less aggressively when markets are complete relative to a model with imperfect self-insurance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 103928"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147612067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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