{"title":"Beyond the headline: How personal exposure to inflation shapes the financial choices of households","authors":"Merike Kukk , Jan Toczynski , Christoph Basten","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103800","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103800","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a unique set of bank account-level data from a period of volatile inflation in a small open economy in 2005–11 and interactive fixed effect estimation, we find that individual consumption spending responds to personal inflation exposure beyond the headline rate. Households are exposed to different inflation because they have different expenditure baskets. For each percentage point of higher personal inflation rate, they increase their spending by 1.4%. These responses are consistent with intertemporal substitution when households form their inflation expectations from their personal experience. Increased spending is financed with savings or borrowing, except when households are liquidity-constrained or over-indebted. Extra demand when inflation is already high can make inflation persistent and dependent on its current distribution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 103800"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
David Berger , Thomas Hasenzagl , Kyle Herkenhoff , Simon Mongey , Eric A. Posner
{"title":"Merger guidelines for the labor market","authors":"David Berger , Thomas Hasenzagl , Kyle Herkenhoff , Simon Mongey , Eric A. Posner","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103785","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103785","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>What are the welfare, wage, and output implications of applying merger review guidelines to the labor market? To answer this question, we develop a theory of multi-plant ownership and labor market monopsony. We estimate the model using U.S. Census data and demonstrate the model’s ability to replicate empirically documented paths of employment and wages following mergers. We then simulate a representative set of U.S. mergers in order to evaluate merger review thresholds. Assuming mergers generate efficiency gains of 5 percent, our simulations yield welfare losses under the enforcement of the more lenient 2010 merger guidelines and welfare gains under enforcement of the more stringent 2023 and 1982 merger guidelines. Lastly, we estimate the aggregate effects of allowed mergers on output and labor’s share of income under each set of merger guidelines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 103785"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fueling expectations: The causal impact of gas prices on Inflation Expectations","authors":"Yoon Joo Jo, Ben Klopack","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103797","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103797","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the effects of temporary state-level gas tax suspensions on inflation expectations. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we show that households in states that lower the gas tax reduce their inflation expectations, but the impact of the policy depends on how much of the tax cut was passed through to prices. We provide new causal evidence of the link between gas prices and household inflation expectations and demonstrate that gas prices play a more significant role in shaping inflation expectations than previously suggested in the literature. We also show experimental evidence that informing households about the tax reduction leads them to adjust their inflation expectations downward. However, we do not find evidence that temporary gas tax suspensions had a stimulative effect on consumption. These findings underscore the potential for alternative policy levers to influence household beliefs and behavior.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 103797"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Juan Carlos Hatchondo , Leonardo Martinez , Yasin Kürşat Önder , Francisco Roch
{"title":"Sovereign CoCos and debt forgiveness","authors":"Juan Carlos Hatchondo , Leonardo Martinez , Yasin Kürşat Önder , Francisco Roch","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103784","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103784","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study a sovereign default model in which the government issues CoCos (contingent convertible bonds) that stipulate a suspension of debt payments upon a sizable increase of the global risk premium (and thus, of the government’s borrowing cost). We find that CoCos allow the government to smooth out the effects of risk-premium shocks on consumption, but they increase the default frequency. By suspending debt payments, CoCos imply higher debt levels and, thus, higher default probabilities after adverse shocks. We also study CoCos that, in addition to the payment suspension, stipulate debt forgiveness after adverse shocks. In contrast with no-forgiveness CoCos, debt-forgiveness CoCos reduce debt levels after adverse shocks, thereby reducing default probabilities. Debt-forgiveness CoCos also yield larger welfare gains.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 103784"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"(Re-)Connecting inflation and the labor market: A tale of two curves","authors":"Hie Joo Ahn, Jeremy B. Rudd","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103796","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103796","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose an empirical framework in which shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply drive the joint dynamics of the labor market and inflation, and where reallocation shocks take two forms depending on whether they result from quits or from job losses. We find that these structural shocks, which affect the Beveridge curve, have different effects on inflation. Our model fully decomposes shifts of or along the empirical Beveridge curve in terms of the contribution of each shock and also allows us to estimate the Phillips correlation associated with each shock; observed Beveridge and Phillips correlations change over time depending on what types of structural shocks predominate in a given period. We find that reallocation shocks that accompany job losses were a key source of labor market dynamics and the steepening of the reduced-form Phillips curve during the Covid-19 pandemic, and were an important driver of the post-pandemic “soft landing.”</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 103796"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Optimal normalization policy under behavioral expectations","authors":"Alexandre Carrier , Kostas Mavromatis","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103786","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103786","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We characterize optimal normalization policy in a framework in which agents’ expectations can deviate from the rational expectations benchmark and the central bank faces cost-push shocks. When interest rate fluctuations are costless, our findings indicate that the interest rate is the primary tool for managing inflationary pressures, consistently outperforming balance sheet adjustments, regardless of the expectations formation process. However, under de-anchored expectations, an increasing role for balance sheet management arises when interest rate fluctuations become costly. Finally, our analysis reveals that expectations significantly influence the optimal interest rate trajectory, whereas their impact on the optimal balance sheet path is comparatively minimal.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 103786"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Decomposing the monetary policy multiplier","authors":"Piergiorgio Alessandri , Òscar Jordà , Fabrizio Venditti","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103783","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103783","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Financial markets play an important role in generating monetary policy transmission asymmetries in the U.S. Credit spreads only adjust to unexpected increases in interest rates, causing output and prices to respond more to a monetary contraction than to a monetary loosening. At a one year horizon, the ‘financial multiplier’ of monetary policy — defined as the ratio between the cumulative responses of employment and credit spreads — is zero for a monetary loosening, -2 for a monetary contraction, and -4 for a monetary contraction that takes place under strained credit market conditions. These results have important policy implications: monetary policy may become inadvertently tight in times of financial distress.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103783"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Elasticity of substitution between robots and workers: Theory and evidence from Japanese robot price data","authors":"Daisuke Adachi","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103782","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103782","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the wage effects of the increased use of industrial robots, focusing on their role in specific tasks and international trade. I construct a novel dataset by tracking shocks to the cost of acquiring robots from Japan, termed the Japan Robot Shock (JRS), and analyze these shocks across different occupations that have adopted robots. A general equilibrium model incorporating robot automation in a large open economy is developed, and a model-implied optimal instrumental variable of the JRS is constructed to address the identification challenges posed by the correlation between automation shocks and the JRS. The study finds that the elasticity of substitution (EoS) between robots and labor is heterogeneous across occupations, reaching up to 3 in production and material moving occupations, which is significantly higher than the EoS between other capital goods and labor. These findings underscore the importance of targeted policy to help workers adapt and mitigate potential wage pressures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103782"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Wealth taxation and life expectancy","authors":"Antonio Andrés Bellofatto","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103781","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103781","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the role of wealth taxes in providing insurance against lifespan risk through the lens of a dynamic Mirrlees model with altruism. I derive novel formulas linking optimal taxes on savings and bequests to the degree of annuity market imperfections at the optimum. In the presence of positive correlation between productivity and life expectancy, optimal annuity markups are positive in expectation. This creates a motive not only for taxing savings but also for subsidizing bequests. When calibrating the model, I find that the forces of differential longevity lead to optimal wealth taxes commensurate with prevailing wealth tax rates in developed countries. Relative to the US status quo, optimal policies provide work incentives by increasing welfare of the short-lived at the bottom of the skill distribution. This channel generates significant welfare gains. Replacing the optimal annuity markup by a nonlinear history-independent approximation generates small efficiency losses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103781"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Policy transition risk, carbon premiums, and asset prices","authors":"Christoph Hambel , Frederick van der Ploeg","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103780","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103780","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the effects of policy transition risk on asset pricing and the green transition using a global two-sector, macro-finance model of climate and the economy. Policy transition risk results from probabilistic changes between three policy states: no, modest, and ambitious carbon pricing. We show that policy transition risk leads to carbon premiums (i.e. higher expected returns on brown than on green assets), especially if the economy is still quite carbon-intensive and close to the temperature cap, and thus accelerate the green transition. Increased transition risk leads to more precautionary saving and falls in the risk-free rate. We offer extensions to deal with physical risks (temperature-related risk of climate disasters and climate tipping), technology transition risk, and more realistic policy tipping with endogenous transition probabilities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103780"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}