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Price discounts and cheapflation during the post-pandemic inflation surge 大流行后通胀飙升期间的价格折扣和廉价通胀
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103644
Alberto Cavallo , Oleksiy Kryvtsov
{"title":"Price discounts and cheapflation during the post-pandemic inflation surge","authors":"Alberto Cavallo ,&nbsp;Oleksiy Kryvtsov","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103644","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103644","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between 2018 and 2024. Measuring unit prices within narrowly defined product categories, we analyze two key sources of variation in prices within a store: temporary price discounts and differences across similar products. Price changes associated with discounts grew at a much lower average rate than regular prices, helping to mitigate the inflation burden. By contrast, <em>cheapflation</em> – a faster rise in prices of cheaper goods relative to prices of more expensive varieties of the same good – exacerbated it. Using Canadian Homescan Panel Data, we estimate that spending on discounts reduced the change in the average unit price by 4.1 percentage points, but expenditure switching to cheaper brands <em>raised</em> it by 2.8 percentage points.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103644"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141871722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Price discounts and cheapflation during the post-pandemic inflation surge: A comment 大流行后通胀飙升时期的价格折扣和廉价通胀：评论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103661
Joseph Vavra
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引用次数: 0
A global perspective on post pandemic inflation and its retreat: Remarks prepared for NBER conference on “inflation in the COVID era” 大流行病后通货膨胀及其消退的全球视角：为 NBER "COVID 时代的通货膨胀 "会议准备的发言稿
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103657
Richard Clarida
{"title":"A global perspective on post pandemic inflation and its retreat: Remarks prepared for NBER conference on “inflation in the COVID era”","authors":"Richard Clarida","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103657","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103657","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides a high level review of the common sources of the post pandemic surge in global inflation and some observations about how this surge - and the conduct of monetary policy during this period - may inform us about monetary policy frameworks and execution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103657"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Discussion of “Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks revisited: Theory and evidence” by Hassan Afrouzi, Saroj Bhattarai, Edson Wu 讨论 "重新审视作为总供给冲击的相对价格变化：理论与证据"，作者：Hassan Afrouzi、Saroj Bhattarai、Edson Wu
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103651
Raphael Schoenle
{"title":"Discussion of “Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks revisited: Theory and evidence” by Hassan Afrouzi, Saroj Bhattarai, Edson Wu","authors":"Raphael Schoenle","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103651","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103651","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103651"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Discussion of “Phillips meets Beveridge,” by Regis Barnichon and Adam Shapiro 讨论 "菲利普斯与贝弗里奇"，作者：Regis Barnichon 和 Adam Shapiro
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103672
Katharine G. Abraham
{"title":"Discussion of “Phillips meets Beveridge,” by Regis Barnichon and Adam Shapiro","authors":"Katharine G. Abraham","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103672","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103672","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>None</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103672"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Partisan expectations and COVID era inflation: A comment 党派预期与 COVID 时代的通货膨胀：评论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103659
Felix Aidala , Olivier Armantier , Giorgio Topa , Wilbert van der Klaauw
{"title":"Partisan expectations and COVID era inflation: A comment","authors":"Felix Aidala ,&nbsp;Olivier Armantier ,&nbsp;Giorgio Topa ,&nbsp;Wilbert van der Klaauw","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103659","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103659","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this note we provide comments on the paper “Partisan Expectations and COVID Era Inflation” (2024) by Binder, Kamdar, and Ryngaert (BKR). We complement BKR’s analysis by bringing to bear new evidence from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. Our analysis confirms BKR’s results of a relationship between political affiliation and inflation expectations. However, we find no clear evidence that Republicans’ inflation expectations became unanchored during the Covid-19 era. We also offer some commentary on BKR’s MSA-level empirical Phillips curve analysis and conclude with some observations on how BKR’s paper contributes to the literature on consumers’ inflation expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103659"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Discussion of “Who bears the costs of inflation? Euro area households and the 2021–2022 shock” 讨论 "谁来承担通货膨胀的成本？欧元区家庭与 2021-2022 年冲击 "的讨论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103655
Klaus Adam
{"title":"Discussion of “Who bears the costs of inflation? Euro area households and the 2021–2022 shock”","authors":"Klaus Adam","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103655","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103655","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103655"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142592892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comment on “The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices” by S. Borağan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel 对 S. Borağan Aruoba 和 Thomas Drechsel 合著的 "货币政策的长滞后和可变滞后：S. Borağan Aruoba 和 Thomas Drechsel 合著的 "货币政策的长滞后和可变滞后：来自分类价格指数的证据 "一文的评论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103653
Jonathan H. Wright
{"title":"Comment on “The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices” by S. Borağan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel","authors":"Jonathan H. Wright","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103653","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103653","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The vast majority of the literature on the effects of monetary policy shocks has considered their impacts on aggregate variables, including aggregate prices. The paper by Borağan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel studies the impacts of monetary policy on the components of PCE. It documents considerable variability in the impulse response functions across components and finds that monetary policy shocks have large but very delayed effects on price aggregates. The finding of cross-sectional variability and its implications are very convincing, The large but delayed effects on aggregates may be more dependent on methodology and shock identification.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103653"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks revisited: Theory and evidence 再论作为总供给冲击的相对价格变化：理论与证据
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103650
Hassan Afrouzi , Saroj Bhattarai , Edson Wu
{"title":"Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks revisited: Theory and evidence","authors":"Hassan Afrouzi ,&nbsp;Saroj Bhattarai ,&nbsp;Edson Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103650","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103650","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We provide theory and evidence that relative price shocks can cause aggregate inflation and act as aggregate supply shocks. Empirically, we show that exogenous positive energy price shocks have a positive impact not only on headline but also on U.S. core inflation while depressing U.S. real activity. In a two-sector monetary model with upstream and downstream sectors and heterogeneous price stickiness, we analytically characterize how upstream shocks propagate to prices. Using panel IV local projections, we show that the responsiveness of sectoral PCE prices to energy price shocks is in line with model predictions. Motivated by post-COVID inflation in the U.S., a model experiment shows that a one-time relative price shock generates persistent movements in headline and core inflation similar to those observed in the data, even in the absence of aggregate slack. The model also emphasizes that monetary policy stance plays an important role in propagation of such shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103650"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Partisan expectations and COVID-era inflation 党派预期和 COVID 时代的通货膨胀
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103649
Carola Conces Binder , Rupal Kamdar , Jane M. Ryngaert
{"title":"Partisan expectations and COVID-era inflation","authors":"Carola Conces Binder ,&nbsp;Rupal Kamdar ,&nbsp;Jane M. Ryngaert","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103649","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103649","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We document that, during the COVID-19 era, the inflation expectations of Democrats remained strongly anchored, while those of Republicans did not. Republicans’ expectations not only rose well above the inflation target, but also became more sensitive to a variety of shocks, including CPI releases and energy prices. We then exploit geographic variation in political affiliation at the MSA level to show that the partial de-anchoring of expectations had implications for realized inflation. Counterfactual exercises imply that, had all expectations become as unanchored as those of Republicans, average inflation would have been two to four percentage points higher for much of the pandemic period, ceteris paribus.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103649"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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