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Globalization, structural change and international comovement 全球化、结构变化和国际运动
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103745
Barthélémy Bonadio , Zhen Huo , Andrei A. Levchenko , Nitya Pandalai-Nayar
{"title":"Globalization, structural change and international comovement","authors":"Barthélémy Bonadio ,&nbsp;Zhen Huo ,&nbsp;Andrei A. Levchenko ,&nbsp;Nitya Pandalai-Nayar","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103745","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103745","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the roles of globalization and structural change in the evolution of international GDP comovement over the period 1978–2007. In this period, trade integration between advanced economies increased rapidly while average GDP correlations remained stable. Structural change – reallocation of economic activity towards services – is important in resolving this apparent puzzle. Business cycle shocks in the service sector are less internationally correlated than in manufacturing, and thus structural change lowers GDP comovement by increasing the GDP share of less correlated sectors. Globalization – reductions in trade costs – exerts two opposing effects on international comovement. While greater trade linkages increase international transmission of shocks, globalization also induces structural change towards services. We quantify these effects in a multi-country, multi-sector model of international production and trade. The two opposing effects of globalization on comovement largely cancel each other out, limiting the net contribution of globalization to increasing international comovement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103745"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Energy price shocks, unemployment, and monetary policy 能源价格冲击、失业和货币政策
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103734
Nicolò Gnocato
{"title":"Energy price shocks, unemployment, and monetary policy","authors":"Nicolò Gnocato","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103734","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103734","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does monetary policy face a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and unemployment as soaring energy prices hit the unemployed harder than the employed? Data from the euro-area Consumer Expectations Survey show that job losses not only force workers to lower their consumption but also to devote a higher proportion of it to energy. I incorporate this evidence into a tractable heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with labor market frictions, where energy acts as both a complementary input in production and a non-homothetic consumption good. Unemployment forces workers to consume less due to imperfect insurance and, since preferences are non-homothetic, to allocate a larger consumption share to energy. The heterogeneous exposure of the labor force to rising energy prices induces an endogenous trade-off for monetary policy: the optimal response involves partly accommodating inflation to limit the increase in unemployment and, hence, prevent workers from becoming more exposed to the shock.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103734"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamic macroeconomic implications of immigration 移民对动态宏观经济的影响
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103747
Conny Olovsson , Karl Walentin , Andreas Westermark
{"title":"Dynamic macroeconomic implications of immigration","authors":"Conny Olovsson ,&nbsp;Karl Walentin ,&nbsp;Andreas Westermark","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103747","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103747","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>International immigration flows are large, volatile, and increasing. We document the dynamic implications of immigration, and account for the differential unemployment and labor force participation rates between immigrants and natives. To quantify the effects of immigration, we use Swedish population registry data and productivity estimates from a matched employer–employee dataset. A refugee (economic) immigration shock yields large initial negative (positive but delayed) effects on GDP per capita and employment rates, substantially larger than, but with the same sign as the corresponding steady state effects. This reflects the empirical fact that labor market integration is a gradual process over many years.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103747"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Overreaction and macroeconomic fluctuation of the external balance 过度反应和宏观经济的外部平衡波动
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103750
Seunghoon Na , Donghoon Yoo
{"title":"Overreaction and macroeconomic fluctuation of the external balance","authors":"Seunghoon Na ,&nbsp;Donghoon Yoo","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103750","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103750","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We incorporate diagnostic expectations (DE) into small open economy (SOE) models to offer novel insights into business cycles, especially in emerging countries. DE induce overreactions in domestic absorption, leading to countercyclical external balances and endogenous boom-bust cycles driven by surprises rooted in distant memory. This framework offers a cognitive alternative to permanent income shock in conventional SOE models under rational expectations (RE). Using Argentine macro-international data, we estimate a quantitative SOE-RBC model with DE that captures the volatility and cyclicality specific to emerging countries and identifies diagnosticity levels consistent with prior research, and reduces reliance on trend-driven TFP shocks. Our findings highlight DE as an empirically plausible mechanism, enriching the literature by demonstrating how imperfect, memory-based expectations influence macroeconomic dynamics in an open economy context.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103750"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade wars and the optimal design of monetary rules 贸易战与货币规则的优化设计
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103726
Stéphane Auray , Michael B. Devereux , Aurélien Eyquem
{"title":"Trade wars and the optimal design of monetary rules","authors":"Stéphane Auray ,&nbsp;Michael B. Devereux ,&nbsp;Aurélien Eyquem","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103726","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103726","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Countries have an incentive to use tariffs to gain advantage over trade partners, but an optimal tariff must weigh the benefits of an improved terms of trade against the costs that the tariff imposes on the domestic economy. In the presence of monopoly distortions and nominal rigidities, the stance of monetary policy may have a large effect on the evaluation of these costs. In a global economy where all countries set tariffs unilaterally in a ‘trade war’, the final outcome can differ dramatically depending on different monetary policy rules. We set out a model of a trade war in a New Keynesian open-economy model. For any one country, a tariff improves the terms of trade but is costly due to its deflationary effect on the domestic economy. A monetary rule which targets the CPI or stabilizes the nominal exchange rate exacerbates these latter costs, and leads to lower equilibrium tariff rates in a trade war. Furthermore, an optimally delegated monetary rule can in fact completely eliminate a trade war.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103726"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecast revisions as instruments for news shocks 预测修正作为应对新闻冲击的工具
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103729
Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia
{"title":"Forecast revisions as instruments for news shocks","authors":"Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103729","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103729","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Upon arrival of macroeconomic news, agents update their beliefs about the long-run fundamentals of the economy. I show that signals about agents’ expectations, proxied by professional forecasters’ outlook revisions, convey sufficient information to identify the effects of expected future technological changes, or news shocks. The approach benefits from not depending on an empirical technology measure or on assumptions about common trends and the timing of the technological change. News shocks cause a strong anticipation effect in investment, while there is less evidence of consumption smoothing—in line with news-driven business cycle models with financial frictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103729"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Active vs. passive policy and the trade-off between output and inflation in HANK HANK中主动与被动政策以及产出与通胀之间的权衡
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103732
Noah Kwicklis
{"title":"Active vs. passive policy and the trade-off between output and inflation in HANK","authors":"Noah Kwicklis","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103732","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103732","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When fiscal policy is active and monetary policy is passive in a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model, deficit-financed transfers to low-asset households lead to similar cumulative inflation but greater increases in real output than transfers to wealthier households. I use the inverse of the “Phillips multiplier”, the price level sacrifice ratio, to quantify this dynamic. Household heterogeneity and targeted policy change the timing of output gaps, making this consistent with the Phillips Curve and rendering conventional sacrifice ratio intuition misleading for assessing the inflation/output trade-off between policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103732"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Discussion of “Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free college or better schools” “形成不平等和贫困的代际持续：免费大学还是更好的学校”的讨论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103744
Veronica Guerrieri
{"title":"Discussion of “Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free college or better schools”","authors":"Veronica Guerrieri","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103744","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103744","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103744"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143372837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Discussion of “Joint Search Over the Life Cycle” 关于“全生命周期联合搜索”的探讨
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103731
Alessandra Fogli
{"title":"Discussion of “Joint Search Over the Life Cycle”","authors":"Alessandra Fogli","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103731","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103731","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103731"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143372262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Discussion of “Heterogeneous Job Ladders” “异质职业阶梯”的探讨
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103727
Gregor Jarosch
{"title":"Discussion of “Heterogeneous Job Ladders”","authors":"Gregor Jarosch","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103727","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103727","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103727"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143373046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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