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Comment on “Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment” by Wang and Wong 《人工智能与技术失业》评析
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103924
J. Carter Braxton
{"title":"Comment on “Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment” by Wang and Wong","authors":"J. Carter Braxton","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103924","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103924","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 103924"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147612070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Firm idiosyncratic risk and productivity investment: Macroeconomic implications 企业特殊风险与生产率投资：宏观经济影响
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103931
Galina Vereshchagina
{"title":"Firm idiosyncratic risk and productivity investment: Macroeconomic implications","authors":"Galina Vereshchagina","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103931","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103931","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper quantifies how idiosyncratic firm-level risk affects output, productivity and life-cycle firm growth in an environment in which the evolution of firm productivity is endogenous. It embeds firms’ risky productivity investment into a Lucas span-of-control model with risk-averse firm owners and endogenous firm entry and exit, and studies the effects of mean-preserving increases in the variance of returns to productivity investment. An increase in uncertainty that raises the firm exit rate by 10 percent (from 0.10 to 0.11) leads to a 0.73 percent decline in output, a 0.38 percent decline in measured TFP, and a 3.69 percent decline in firm productivity investment. If firms face capital financing constraints, as is common in developing economies, these effects are amplified and the increase in uncertainty may also lead to slower firm life-cycle growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 103931"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147612072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Life-cycle worker flows and cross-country differences in aggregate employment 生命周期工人流动和总就业的跨国差异
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103929
Jonathan Créchet , Etienne Lalé , Linas Tarasonis
{"title":"Life-cycle worker flows and cross-country differences in aggregate employment","authors":"Jonathan Créchet ,&nbsp;Etienne Lalé ,&nbsp;Linas Tarasonis","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103929","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103929","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cross-country employment differences are concentrated among women, youth, and older individuals. In this paper, we estimate employment, unemployment and labor-force participation flows by age and gender and study their contributions to aggregate employment differences across a large panel of European countries. Employment outflows are the main source of employment variation for prime-age men, whereas the inflows are quantitatively more important for women and young individuals. In addition, labor-force participation flows account for a substantial share of employment variation across all demographic groups. We develop and calibrate a life-cycle DMP model consistent with these facts. According to our model, endogenous labor-force participation and search intensity act as amplification mechanisms, allowing small differences in match productivity and job destruction rates to explain much of the cross-country differences in aggregate employment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 103929"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147612073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Geography of job creation and job destruction 就业创造和就业破坏的地理
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103898
Moritz Kuhn , Iourii Manovskii , Xincheng Qiu
{"title":"The Geography of job creation and job destruction","authors":"Moritz Kuhn ,&nbsp;Iourii Manovskii ,&nbsp;Xincheng Qiu","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103898","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103898","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Spatial differences in labor market performance are large and highly persistent. Using data from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we document striking similarities across these countries in the spatial differences in unemployment, vacancies, and vacancy filling, job finding, and separation rates. The novel facts on the geography of vacancies and vacancy filling are instrumental in guiding and disciplining the development of a theory of local labor market performance. We find that a spatial version of a Diamond–Mortensen–Pissarides model with endogenous separations and on-the-job search quantitatively accounts for all the documented empirical regularities. The model also quantitatively rationalizes why differences in job-separation rates have primary importance in inducing differences in unemployment across space while changes in the job-finding rate are the main driver in unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103898"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Distorted prices and targeted taxes in the New Keynesian Network model 新凯恩斯网络模型中的扭曲价格和定向税收
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103904
Anastasiia Antonova , Gernot J. Müller
{"title":"Distorted prices and targeted taxes in the New Keynesian Network model","authors":"Anastasiia Antonova ,&nbsp;Gernot J. Müller","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103904","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103904","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When confronted with sectoral shocks, policymakers often resort to targeted, sector-specific taxes in an <em>ad hoc</em> fashion. Based on the New Keynesian Network model, we characterize the optimal tax response to sectoral shocks: it features twice as many tax instruments as there are sectors, is budget-neutral, and not confined to the sector where the shock originates. We show that the optimal policy can be approximated by a simple rule that responds to inflation in the shocked sector and adjusts tax instruments in other sectors according to input–output linkages. We study its quantitative performance in a calibrated version of the model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103904"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The housing wealth effect: Quasi-experimental evidence 住房财富效应：准实验证据
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103892
Jesper Böjeryd , Roine Vestman , Björn Tyrefors , Dany Kessel
{"title":"The housing wealth effect: Quasi-experimental evidence","authors":"Jesper Böjeryd ,&nbsp;Roine Vestman ,&nbsp;Björn Tyrefors ,&nbsp;Dany Kessel","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103892","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103892","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Empirical studies have estimated a large range of consumption responses to changes in housing prices. Using a quasi-experiment, we estimate a shock of <span><math><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>19</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>4</mn></mrow></math></span> percent to single-family house prices in the area surrounding an airport in Stockholm after its operations were unexpectedly continued as a result of political bargaining behind closed doors. Using a household data set with information on the locations of primary residences relative to the airport, we find a short-run elasticity with respect to new car purchases of 0.28, corresponding to a one-year marginal propensity for expenditure on cars (car MPX) of 0.09 cents per dollar lost in housing wealth. Households with high loan-to-value ratios and small bank deposits respond the most. A quantitative model aligns with our empirical findings but also suggests that the car MPX could be 0.31 cents when used cars are included; of this, 73 percent is explained by a collateral channel. When nondurables are accounted for, the total marginal propensity to spend is 2.1 cents. In the case of an absolute fall in housing prices, the total response is four times greater.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103892"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial shocks and leverage of financial institutions: When do they matter? 金融冲击与金融机构杠杆：何时起作用？
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103900
Kirstin Hubrich , Yves Schüler , Daniel Waggoner
{"title":"Financial shocks and leverage of financial institutions: When do they matter?","authors":"Kirstin Hubrich ,&nbsp;Yves Schüler ,&nbsp;Daniel Waggoner","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103900","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103900","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We provide empirical evidence that the amplification of financial shocks through leverage of financial institutions is both time-varying and heterogeneous across types of financial institutions. Using institution-level micro data on market-based leverage, we find that the strength of this amplification varies over time and that deleveraging by global systemically important banks and broker–dealers has significantly more adverse effects on macroeconomic outcomes than deleveraging by depository institutions, particularly within a financial constraint regime. In our framework, this regime is not imposed but emerges endogenously from the state of financial and monetary conditions. To uncover these dynamics, we develop and apply an endogenous regime-switching structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying transition probabilities and introduce structural identification techniques to this class of models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103900"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Artificial intelligence and technological unemployment 人工智能和技术性失业
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103905
Ping Wang , Tsz-Nga Wong
{"title":"Artificial intelligence and technological unemployment","authors":"Ping Wang ,&nbsp;Tsz-Nga Wong","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103905","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103905","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How large are the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on labor productivity and unemployment? We develop a labor-search model of technological unemployment where AI learns from workers, raises productivity, and displaces them if renegotiation fails. The model admits three steady states: no AI; some AI with limited capability, more job creation but higher unemployment; unbounded AI with endogenous growth and employment gains. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model implies a threefold productivity gain in the long run for workers exposed to AI but a 23% employment loss, half within five years. Plausible parameters give rise to global and local indeterminacy with endogenous cycles in productivity and unemployment, underscoring the uncertainty of AI’s impacts in line with a wide range of empirical findings. Equilibria are inefficient despite the Hosios condition; subsidizing jobs at risk of AI displacement is constrained optimal.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103905"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous innovations and growth under imperfect technology spillovers 不完全技术溢出下的异质创新与增长
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103899
Karam Jo, Seula Kim
{"title":"Heterogeneous innovations and growth under imperfect technology spillovers","authors":"Karam Jo,&nbsp;Seula Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103899","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103899","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how frictions in learning others’ technology, termed “imperfect technology spillovers,” impact firm innovation strategies and the aggregate economy through changes in innovation composition. We develop an endogenous growth model that generates strategic innovation decisions, where multi-product firms improve their products via own-innovation and enter new product markets through creative destruction under learning frictions. In our model, firms with technological advantages intensify own-innovation as learning frictions enable them to protect their markets from competitors, thereby reducing creative destruction of rivals. This pattern gets more pronounced when learning frictions intensify or competitive pressure rises exogenously. Importantly, the shift in innovation composition reduces aggregate growth, as creative destruction contributes more to growth. Using U.S. administrative firm-level data, we provide regression results supporting the model predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103899"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An endogenous gridpoint method for distributional dynamics 分布动力学的内生网格点方法
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103895
Christian Bayer , Ralph Luetticke , Maximilian Weiss , Yannik Winkelmann
{"title":"An endogenous gridpoint method for distributional dynamics","authors":"Christian Bayer ,&nbsp;Ralph Luetticke ,&nbsp;Maximilian Weiss ,&nbsp;Yannik Winkelmann","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103895","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103895","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Modeling continuous choices in heterogeneous agent models as “lotteries” over a discretized state space is standard practice (Young, 2010), but renders the distributional dynamics linear in optimal policies. We present a novel, simple method that captures nonlinearities and solves the distributional dynamics with interpolation instead of integration using the idea of an endogenous grid. Our approach solves for a stationary equilibrium as quickly as the lottery method for a given precision, outperforms it for linear dynamics, and accommodates nonlinear dynamics and aggregate risk. We demonstrate its efficacy by studying a model with aggregate investment risk with a third-order perturbation solution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103895"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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