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Financial shocks and leverage of financial institutions: When do they matter? 金融冲击与金融机构杠杆：何时起作用？
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103900
Kirstin Hubrich , Yves Schüler , Daniel Waggoner
{"title":"Financial shocks and leverage of financial institutions: When do they matter?","authors":"Kirstin Hubrich ,&nbsp;Yves Schüler ,&nbsp;Daniel Waggoner","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103900","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103900","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We provide empirical evidence that the amplification of financial shocks through leverage of financial institutions is both time-varying and heterogeneous across types of financial institutions. Using institution-level micro data on market-based leverage, we find that the strength of this amplification varies over time and that deleveraging by global systemically important banks and broker–dealers has significantly more adverse effects on macroeconomic outcomes than deleveraging by depository institutions, particularly within a financial constraint regime. In our framework, this regime is not imposed but emerges endogenously from the state of financial and monetary conditions. To uncover these dynamics, we develop and apply an endogenous regime-switching structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying transition probabilities and introduce structural identification techniques to this class of models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103900"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Artificial intelligence and technological unemployment 人工智能和技术性失业
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103905
Ping Wang , Tsz-Nga Wong
{"title":"Artificial intelligence and technological unemployment","authors":"Ping Wang ,&nbsp;Tsz-Nga Wong","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103905","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103905","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How large are the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on labor productivity and unemployment? We develop a labor-search model of technological unemployment where AI learns from workers, raises productivity, and displaces them if renegotiation fails. The model admits three steady states: no AI; some AI with limited capability, more job creation but higher unemployment; unbounded AI with endogenous growth and employment gains. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model implies a threefold productivity gain in the long run for workers exposed to AI but a 23% employment loss, half within five years. Plausible parameters give rise to global and local indeterminacy with endogenous cycles in productivity and unemployment, underscoring the uncertainty of AI’s impacts in line with a wide range of empirical findings. Equilibria are inefficient despite the Hosios condition; subsidizing jobs at risk of AI displacement is constrained optimal.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103905"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous innovations and growth under imperfect technology spillovers 不完全技术溢出下的异质创新与增长
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103899
Karam Jo, Seula Kim
{"title":"Heterogeneous innovations and growth under imperfect technology spillovers","authors":"Karam Jo,&nbsp;Seula Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103899","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103899","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how frictions in learning others’ technology, termed “imperfect technology spillovers,” impact firm innovation strategies and the aggregate economy through changes in innovation composition. We develop an endogenous growth model that generates strategic innovation decisions, where multi-product firms improve their products via own-innovation and enter new product markets through creative destruction under learning frictions. In our model, firms with technological advantages intensify own-innovation as learning frictions enable them to protect their markets from competitors, thereby reducing creative destruction of rivals. This pattern gets more pronounced when learning frictions intensify or competitive pressure rises exogenously. Importantly, the shift in innovation composition reduces aggregate growth, as creative destruction contributes more to growth. Using U.S. administrative firm-level data, we provide regression results supporting the model predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103899"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An endogenous gridpoint method for distributional dynamics 分布动力学的内生网格点方法
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103895
Christian Bayer , Ralph Luetticke , Maximilian Weiss , Yannik Winkelmann
{"title":"An endogenous gridpoint method for distributional dynamics","authors":"Christian Bayer ,&nbsp;Ralph Luetticke ,&nbsp;Maximilian Weiss ,&nbsp;Yannik Winkelmann","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103895","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103895","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Modeling continuous choices in heterogeneous agent models as “lotteries” over a discretized state space is standard practice (Young, 2010), but renders the distributional dynamics linear in optimal policies. We present a novel, simple method that captures nonlinearities and solves the distributional dynamics with interpolation instead of integration using the idea of an endogenous grid. Our approach solves for a stationary equilibrium as quickly as the lottery method for a given precision, outperforms it for linear dynamics, and accommodates nonlinear dynamics and aggregate risk. We demonstrate its efficacy by studying a model with aggregate investment risk with a third-order perturbation solution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103895"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Central bank reputation with noise 央行声誉与噪音
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103906
Manuel Amador, Christopher Phelan
{"title":"Central bank reputation with noise","authors":"Manuel Amador,&nbsp;Christopher Phelan","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103906","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103906","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a model of central bank reputation where inflation is a noisy function of central bank actions. In the model, a central bank can be “hawkish”, with a relatively high penalty for taking inflationary actions, or “dovish”, with a relatively low penalty. The central bank’s type varies according to a Markov process, and its reputation is the Bayesian posterior of households that it is a hawkish type. We show analytically that no Markov pooling equilibria exist: hawkish and dovish central banks must act differently. We then argue that without sufficient noise, it is difficult for Markov separating equilibria to exist either. But <em>with</em> sufficient noise, we show computationally that pure strategy separating equilibria exist and have appealing characteristics: both hawkish and dovish banks choose lower inflationary actions than they would in the absence of reputation considerations, and both types are most aggressive in attempting to gain a hawkish reputation when their current reputation is middling.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103906"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wage growth and labor market tightness 工资增长和劳动力市场紧缩
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103903
Sebastian Heise, Jeremy Pearce, Jacob P. Weber
{"title":"Wage growth and labor market tightness","authors":"Sebastian Heise,&nbsp;Jeremy Pearce,&nbsp;Jacob P. Weber","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103903","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103903","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Good measures of labor market tightness are essential to predict wage inflation and to calibrate monetary policy. This paper highlights the importance of two measures of labor market tightness in determining wage growth: the quits rate and vacancies per effective searcher (V/ES)—where searchers include both employed and non-employed job seekers. Among a broad set of indicators of labor market tightness, we find that these two measures are independently the most strongly correlated with wage inflation both in aggregate time series data and in industry-level panel data, and also predict wage growth best out of sample. These results are consistent with the predictions of a New Keynesian DSGE model where firms have the power to set wages and workers search on the job. We develop a new composite indicator of labor market tightness that can be used by policymakers to predict wage pressures in real time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103903"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models DSGE模型中的专业调查预测和期望
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103885
Yuliya Rychalovska , Sergey Slobodyan , Rafael Wouters
{"title":"Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models","authors":"Yuliya Rychalovska ,&nbsp;Sergey Slobodyan ,&nbsp;Rafael Wouters","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103885","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103885","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes a strategy to exploit timely information from survey data to disentangle the effects of persistent and transitory shocks driving the real business cycle in DSGE models. Enhanced identification of fundamental shocks leads to significant improvement in the model’s fit. We also examine how structural models with alternative expectation formation mechanisms can address the limitations in information processing often observed in surveys. Our analysis shows that Rational Expectations model with observed survey data generates predictable forecast errors, inheriting this property from survey expectations. We emphasize an important role of the time-varying propagation mechanism under learning, which reduces the constrains imposed by the complete rationality assumption and allows for more efficient integration of surveys in macro models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103885"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145898047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The timing of shocks matters in optimal monetary policy 冲击的时机对最优货币政策至关重要
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103896
Toyoichiro Shirota
{"title":"The timing of shocks matters in optimal monetary policy","authors":"Toyoichiro Shirota","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103896","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103896","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores optimal monetary policy in an economy with seasonal wage staggering. The findings reveal that the slope of the Phillips curve and the weights in the welfare loss function systematically differ by quarter. Consequently, optimal policy responses vary depending on the timing of shocks within a calendar year. However, implementing history-dependent policy rules can effectively mitigate much of the welfare deterioration that would otherwise occur when policymakers fail to adopt these quarter-specific optimal policy responses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103896"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Firm dynamics and random search over the business cycle 商业周期中的企业动态和随机搜索
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103902
Richard Audoly
{"title":"Firm dynamics and random search over the business cycle","authors":"Richard Audoly","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103902","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103902","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I build a tractable random search model with firm dynamics, on-the-job search, and aggregate shocks. Multi-worker firms make recruitment decisions, choose whether to enter or exit the market, and design wage contracts. Tractability is obtained by showing that, under a set of assumptions on the recruitment technology, the decisions of workers and firms are fully summarized by the firms’ current productivity. I confront the model to salient business cycle moments on the reallocation of workers across the firm productivity distribution derived from firm-level data that the model successfully replicates. I use this framework to quantify the drivers of worker reallocation over the post-war business cycle in Britain.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103902"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Motivating banks to lend? Credit spillover effects of the Main Street Lending Program 激励银行放贷？普通民众贷款计划的信贷溢出效应
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103897
Camelia Minoiu , Rebecca Zarutskie , Andrei Zlate
{"title":"Motivating banks to lend? Credit spillover effects of the Main Street Lending Program","authors":"Camelia Minoiu ,&nbsp;Rebecca Zarutskie ,&nbsp;Andrei Zlate","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103897","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103897","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the effects of the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP)—a Federal Reserve emergency program which sought to support bank lending to small- and medium-sized businesses by purchasing 95% of eligible loans from banks—on the provision of bank credit to non-financial firms. We show the MSLP increased banks’ willingness to lend outside the program by serving as an “implicit backstop.” Participating banks were more likely to grant new loans, increase loan volumes, and reduce loan spreads, with stronger effects for ex-ante riskier firms and for lower-capital banks. We estimate that every $1 of take-up increased lending by $1.95.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103897"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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