The adoption and termination of suppliers over the business cycle

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103730

Le Xu , Yang Yu , Francesco Zanetti

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Abstract

We assemble a firm-level dataset to study the adoption and termination of suppliers over business cycles. We document that the aggregate number and rate of adoption of suppliers are procyclical. The rate of termination is acyclical at the aggregate level, and the cyclicality of termination encompasses large differences across producers. To account for these new facts, we develop a model with optimizing producers that incur separate costs for management, adoption, and termination of suppliers. These costs alter the incentives to scale up production and to replace existing with new suppliers. Sufficiently high convexity in management relative to adjustment costs is crucial to replicating the observed cyclicality in the adoption and termination rates at the producer and aggregate levels. We study the welfare implications of credit injections and subsidies on new inputs—the two main classes of supply-chain policies adopted in the U.S. since the COVID-19 pandemic. Credit injections generally outperform subsidies on new inputs, except when aggregate TFP is exceptionally high.

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在商业周期中供应商的采用和终止

我们收集了一个公司层面的数据集来研究商业周期中供应商的采用和终止。我们证明了供应商的总数和采用率是顺周期的。终止率在总体水平上是非周期性的，并且终止的周期性包含了生产者之间的巨大差异。为了解释这些新的事实，我们开发了一个模型，其中优化了生产者，这些生产者为管理、采用和终止供应商承担单独的成本。这些成本改变了扩大生产和用新供应商取代现有供应商的动机。管理方面相对于调整成本的足够高的凸性对于在生产者和总体水平上复制所观察到的采用率和终止率的周期性是至关重要的。我们研究了信贷注入和对新投入的补贴对福利的影响——这是自COVID-19大流行以来美国采用的两类主要供应链政策。信贷注入通常优于对新投入的补贴，除非总全要素生产率特别高。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Monetary Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

4.90%

发文量

审稿时长

74 days

期刊介绍： The profession has witnessed over the past twenty years a remarkable expansion of research activities bearing on problems in the broader field of monetary economics. The strong interest in monetary analysis has been increasingly matched in recent years by the growing attention to the working and structure of financial institutions. The role of various institutional arrangements, the consequences of specific changes in banking structure and the welfare aspects of structural policies have attracted an increasing interest in the profession. There has also been a growing attention to the operation of credit markets and to various aspects in the behavior of rates of return on assets. The Journal of Monetary Economics provides a specialized forum for the publication of this research.