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Consumer demand and credit supply as barriers to growth for Black-owned startups 消费者需求和信贷供应是黑人初创企业发展的障碍
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.12.001
Eugene Tan , Teegawende H. Zeida
{"title":"Consumer demand and credit supply as barriers to growth for Black-owned startups","authors":"Eugene Tan ,&nbsp;Teegawende H. Zeida","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We formulate a framework showing that differences in capital returns and capital intensity between groups of firms can identify relative differences in consumer demand and credit constraints. Using micro-data on Black- and White-owned startups, we find robust evidence that Black-owned startups have lower capital returns, implying that Black-owned startups face lower consumer demand due to race. In contrast, we find mixed evidence of tighter credit constraints due to race. We further show that differences in capital returns are persistent over time, whereas capital intensity differences are transitory. This suggests that lower demand, rather than credit constraints, might be the main barrier to growth for Black-owned startups.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"143 ","pages":"Article 103543"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138545647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The consumption expenditure response to unemployment: Evidence from Norwegian households 消费支出对失业的反应：挪威家庭的证据
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103578
{"title":"The consumption expenditure response to unemployment: Evidence from Norwegian households","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103578","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103578","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper examines heterogeneity in household income and consumption responses to unemployment, using granular administrative tax data from Norway. On average, unemployment results in a significant, lasting income reduction, accompanied by a decrease in consumption expenditures of between one-third to one-half of the income loss. We find that households with greater liquid assets at the outset experience less of a decline in consumption, whereas those with higher levels of debt encounter a more substantial decrease. Notably, also the interaction of liquid assets and debt holdings matters for the consumption response. While households with larger initial liquid asset holdings on average respond less, the analyses show that this is not the case among households that simultaneously hold substantial amounts of debt, thus adding to a more nuanced view of the importance of household heterogeneity for economic outcomes. Furthermore, our investigation into heterogeneity across family composition and child age uncovers distinct patterns in consumption responses, highlighting the varied impacts of unemployment. Lastly, we find that spending patterns, as indicated by the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), become more pronounced during recessions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 103578"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030439322400031X/pdfft?md5=478f0a00cb1d2a7ff1f1cb074395cf2c&pid=1-s2.0-S030439322400031X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140403807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A HANK2 model of monetary unions 货币联盟的 HANK2 模型
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103579
{"title":"A HANK2 model of monetary unions","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103579","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103579","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>How does a monetary union alter the impact of business cycle shocks at the household level? We develop a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model of two countries (HANK<span><math><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></math></span>) and show in closed form that a monetary union shifts the adjustment to a shock horizontally across countries, within the brackets of the union-wide wealth distribution, rather than vertically, that is, across the brackets of the union-wide wealth distribution. Calibrating the model to the euro area reveals that a monetary union alters the impact of shocks most strongly in the tails of the wealth distribution but leaves the middle class almost unaffected.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103579"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393224000321/pdfft?md5=c182c449cc973d116614cb604fbd60fb&pid=1-s2.0-S0304393224000321-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140398349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Adverse selection and search congestion in over-the-counter markets 场外交易市场的逆向选择和搜索拥塞
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103577
{"title":"Adverse selection and search congestion in over-the-counter markets","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103577","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103577","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Asymmetric information about both private valuations of assets and their quality gives rise to uncertainty over sellers’ motives of trade, allowing high-valuation holders of low-quality assets to engage in speculative trades that involve no allocative gains. When sellers compete to find buyers, such speculative behaviour not only dilutes the average quality of assets but also creates a welfare-detrimental congestion externality that lengthens the time on market for each individual seller. A market designer can mitigate the inefficiencies by imposing a transaction tax and, in the case of severe adverse selection, limiting market participation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 103577"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140400907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The real effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy: Evidence from administrative household-level data 基于借款人的宏观审慎政策的实际效果：来自家庭层面行政数据的证据
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103574
{"title":"The real effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy: Evidence from administrative household-level data","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103574","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103574","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We analyze the effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy at the <em>household level</em>. We exploit administrative Dutch tax and housing records in conjunction with the introduction of a mortgage loan-to-value (LTV) limit. We find that the regulation sharply reduces mortgage leverage with bunching at the LTV limit. While (regulation) affected households reduce total leverage and interest expenses, they also decrease cash balances to satisfy the LTV limit, generating an important solvency-liquidity trade-off. Nevertheless, affected households experience less financial distress after the introduction of the LTV regulation. Moreover, these households experience better liquidity management and smoother consumption following income loss. Overall, our results highlight the key financial stability and real effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103574"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393224000278/pdfft?md5=380f803ab026b7d49e13b7fb97987f76&pid=1-s2.0-S0304393224000278-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140275791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Expectation-driven boom-bust cycles 预期驱动的繁荣-萧条周期
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103575
{"title":"Expectation-driven boom-bust cycles","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103575","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103575","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we observe that a large fraction of analysts’ expectations about future economic growth is not due to technology or other shocks to fundamentals measured by the business cycle literature. We find that these unexplained changes in forecast revisions predict significant boom-bust dynamics in the key macroeconomic aggregates. We offer a novel theory where boom-bust dynamics stem from expectation shocks orthogonal to fundamentals.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 103575"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140283110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
(Trade) War and peace: How to impose international trade sanctions (贸易）战争与和平：如何实施国际贸易制裁
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103572
{"title":"(Trade) War and peace: How to impose international trade sanctions","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103572","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103572","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>What is the most cost-efficient way to impose trade sanctions against Russia? We build a quantitative model of international trade with input–output connections. Sanctioning countries choose import tariffs to simultaneously maximize their income and minimize Russia’s income, with different weights placed on these objectives. We find, first, that for countries with low </span>willingness to pay for sanctions against Russia, the most cost-efficient sanction is an approximately 20% tariff on all Russian products. Second, if countries are willing to pay at least US$0.70 for each US$1 drop in Russian welfare, an embargo on Russia’s mining and energy products is the most cost-efficient policy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 103572"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140590150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Fed takes on corporate credit risk: An analysis of the efficacy of the SMCCF 美联储承担企业信贷风险：对 SMCCF 效力的分析
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103573
{"title":"The Fed takes on corporate credit risk: An analysis of the efficacy of the SMCCF","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103573","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103573","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper evaluates the efficacy of the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility, a program designed to stabilize the U.S.<span> corporate bond market during the COVID-19 pandemic. The program announcements on March 23 and April 9, 2020, significantly reduced investment-grade credit spreads across the maturity spectrum – irrespective of the program’s maturity-eligibility criterion – and ultimately restored the normal upward-sloping term structure of credit spreads. The Federal Reserve’s actual purchases reduced credit spreads of eligible bonds 3 basis points more than those of ineligible bonds, a sizable effect given the modest volume of purchases. A calibrated variant of the preferred habit model shows that a “dash for cash” – a selloff of shorter-term lowest-risk investment-grade bonds – combined with a spike in the arbitrageurs’ risk aversion, can account for the inversion of the investment-grade credit curve during the height of turmoil in the market. Consistent with the empirical findings, the Fed’s announcements, by reducing risk aversion and alleviating market segmentation, helped restore the upward-sloping credit curve in the investment-grade segment of the market.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 103573"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140146810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Averaging impulse responses using prediction pools 利用预测池平均脉冲响应
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103571
{"title":"Averaging impulse responses using prediction pools","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103571","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103571","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>Macroeconomists construct impulse responses using many competing time series<span> models and different statistical paradigms (Bayesian or frequentist). We adapt optimal linear prediction pools to efficiently combine impulse response estimators for the effects of the same economic shock from this vast class of possible models. We thus alleviate the need to choose one specific model, obtaining weights that are typically positive for more than one model. Our </span></span>Monte Carlo simulations and empirical applications illustrate how the weights leverage the strengths of each model by (i) trading off properties of each model depending on variable, horizon, and application and (ii) accounting for the full predictive distribution rather than being restricted to specific moments.</span><span><span><sup>1</sup></span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 103571"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140098554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The chronology of Brexit and UK monetary policy 英国脱欧与英国货币政策大事记
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.09.003
Martin Geiger , Jochen Güntner
{"title":"The chronology of Brexit and UK monetary policy","authors":"Martin Geiger ,&nbsp;Jochen Güntner","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.09.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.09.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The outcome of the Brexit referendum in June 2016 was largely unanticipated. Even after the “Leave” vote, surprises regarding the withdrawal process affected the UK economy. We draw on an official list of political events published by the House of Commons Library and daily data on asset prices and economic policy uncertainty to construct a novel instrument for Brexit surprises. Including a monthly aggregate of this instrument into a vector-autoregressive model of the UK economy, an adverse Brexit surprise lowers GDP growth while raising CPI inflation. We provide evidence that the Bank of England fended off a worse economic contraction.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 103516"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393223001034/pdfft?md5=aa7d84f3727e97f4f133abdec2577429&pid=1-s2.0-S0304393223001034-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135348095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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