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Optimal normalization policy under behavioral expectations 行为预期下的最优规范化策略
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103786
Alexandre Carrier , Kostas Mavromatis
{"title":"Optimal normalization policy under behavioral expectations","authors":"Alexandre Carrier ,&nbsp;Kostas Mavromatis","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103786","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103786","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We characterize optimal normalization policy in a framework in which agents’ expectations can deviate from the rational expectations benchmark and the central bank faces cost-push shocks. When interest rate fluctuations are costless, our findings indicate that the interest rate is the primary tool for managing inflationary pressures, consistently outperforming balance sheet adjustments, regardless of the expectations formation process. However, under de-anchored expectations, an increasing role for balance sheet management arises when interest rate fluctuations become costly. Finally, our analysis reveals that expectations significantly influence the optimal interest rate trajectory, whereas their impact on the optimal balance sheet path is comparatively minimal.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 103786"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corporate bond market distress 公司债券市场困境
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103765
Nina Boyarchenko , Richard K. Crump , Anna Kovner , Or Shachar
{"title":"Corporate bond market distress","authors":"Nina Boyarchenko ,&nbsp;Richard K. Crump ,&nbsp;Anna Kovner ,&nbsp;Or Shachar","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103765","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103765","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We link bond market functioning to future economic activity through a new measure, the Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI). The CMDI coalesces metrics from primary and secondary markets in real time, offering a unified measure to capture access to debt capital markets. The index correctly identifies periods of distress and predicts future realizations of commonly-used measures of market functioning, while the converse is not the case. We show that disruptions in access to corporate bond markets have an economically material, statistically significant impact on the real economy, even after controlling for standard predictors including credit spreads.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103765"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wealth taxation and life expectancy 财富税和预期寿命
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103781
Antonio Andrés Bellofatto
{"title":"Wealth taxation and life expectancy","authors":"Antonio Andrés Bellofatto","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103781","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103781","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the role of wealth taxes in providing insurance against lifespan risk through the lens of a dynamic Mirrlees model with altruism. I derive novel formulas linking optimal taxes on savings and bequests to the degree of annuity market imperfections at the optimum. In the presence of positive correlation between productivity and life expectancy, optimal annuity markups are positive in expectation. This creates a motive not only for taxing savings but also for subsidizing bequests. When calibrating the model, I find that the forces of differential longevity lead to optimal wealth taxes commensurate with prevailing wealth tax rates in developed countries. Relative to the US status quo, optimal policies provide work incentives by increasing welfare of the short-lived at the bottom of the skill distribution. This channel generates significant welfare gains. Replacing the optimal annuity markup by a nonlinear history-independent approximation generates small efficiency losses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103781"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Elasticity of substitution between robots and workers: Theory and evidence from Japanese robot price data 机器人与工人之间的替代弹性：来自日本机器人价格数据的理论与证据
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103782
Daisuke Adachi
{"title":"Elasticity of substitution between robots and workers: Theory and evidence from Japanese robot price data","authors":"Daisuke Adachi","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103782","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103782","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the wage effects of the increased use of industrial robots, focusing on their role in specific tasks and international trade. I construct a novel dataset by tracking shocks to the cost of acquiring robots from Japan, termed the Japan Robot Shock (JRS), and analyze these shocks across different occupations that have adopted robots. A general equilibrium model incorporating robot automation in a large open economy is developed, and a model-implied optimal instrumental variable of the JRS is constructed to address the identification challenges posed by the correlation between automation shocks and the JRS. The study finds that the elasticity of substitution (EoS) between robots and labor is heterogeneous across occupations, reaching up to 3 in production and material moving occupations, which is significantly higher than the EoS between other capital goods and labor. These findings underscore the importance of targeted policy to help workers adapt and mitigate potential wage pressures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103782"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An options-based impact study of the negative interest rate policy and forward guidance 基于期权的负利率政策影响与前瞻指引研究
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103776
Massimo Rostagno , Carlo Altavilla , Giacomo Carboni , Wolfgang Lemke , Roberto Motto , Arthur Saint-Guilhem
{"title":"An options-based impact study of the negative interest rate policy and forward guidance","authors":"Massimo Rostagno ,&nbsp;Carlo Altavilla ,&nbsp;Giacomo Carboni ,&nbsp;Wolfgang Lemke ,&nbsp;Roberto Motto ,&nbsp;Arthur Saint-Guilhem","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103776","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103776","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The effect of Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) and rate Forward Guidance (FG) on the yield curve is very similar with both policies exerting their maximal impact on a same spectrum of short-to-medium term maturities. Yet, we find that their impact on the predictive interest rate distribution differs. Accommodative FG prices out high interest rate trajectories, thus affecting upper percentiles; NIRP changes the market pricing of the effective lower bound on the policy rate, thus affecting lower percentiles. Building on this evidence, we combine option-implied rate densities with event-study analysis to separate the effects of NIRP and FG. We find that the impact of the ECB's NIRP on forward rates was stronger than that of FG.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103776"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The economics of helicopter money 直升机撒钱的经济学
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103768
Pierpaolo Benigno , Salvatore Nisticò
{"title":"The economics of helicopter money","authors":"Pierpaolo Benigno ,&nbsp;Salvatore Nisticò","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103768","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103768","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The economics of helicopter money is fundamentally tied to price-level determination in monetary models. In frameworks with intrinsically worthless currencies, the issuer’s liabilities define the unit of account, and uniquely empower the issuer to implement helicopter money and escape liquidity traps. While traditional helicopter money requires cooperation between the treasury and the central bank — with the central bank critically guaranteeing treasury debt — we demonstrate that helicopter money can also be effectively executed independently by government or private currency issuers, without treasury involvement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103768"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The long-term effects of industrial policy 产业政策的长期影响
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103779
Jaedo Choi , Andrei A. Levchenko
{"title":"The long-term effects of industrial policy","authors":"Jaedo Choi ,&nbsp;Andrei A. Levchenko","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103779","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103779","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides causal evidence on the impact of a large-scale industrial policy – South Korea’s Heavy and Chemical Industry (HCI) Drive – on firms’ long-term performance and quantifies its long-term welfare effects. Using unique historical data on the universe of firm-level subsidies and a natural experiment, we find large and persistent effects of this industrial policy. Subsidized firms grew faster than those never subsidized for 30 years after subsidies ended. We build a quantitative heterogeneous firm model that rationalizes these effects through a combination of learning-by-doing and financial frictions. The model is calibrated to firm-level data, and its key parameters are disciplined with the econometric estimates. The HCI Drive generated larger benefits than costs. If it had not been implemented, South Korea’s welfare would have been 3%–4% lower. The majority of the total welfare impact comes from the long-term productivity benefits of learning-by-doing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103779"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
All that glitters: A theory of multiple bubbles with implications for cryptocurrencies 所有这些都是闪闪发光的：一个对加密货币有影响的多重泡沫理论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103764
Jungsuk Han , Yenan Wang
{"title":"All that glitters: A theory of multiple bubbles with implications for cryptocurrencies","authors":"Jungsuk Han ,&nbsp;Yenan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103764","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103764","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze a model of heterogeneous rational bubbles that compete and complement each other. When some bubbles burst, surviving ones gain value, offsetting losses from collapsed bubbles. This “compensation effect,” combined with diversification, enhances welfare. A portfolio of fragile bubbles may rival a single, stable bubble. The stationary equilibrium imposes a tight upper bound on bubble size, considering covariance structures, price fluctuations, and the emergence of new bubbles. These results have important policy implications, particularly for managing crypto ETFs and issuing CBDCs, highlighting the potential benefits of a diversified approach to fragile financial systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103764"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Decomposing the monetary policy multiplier 分解货币政策乘数
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103783
Piergiorgio Alessandri , Òscar Jordà , Fabrizio Venditti
{"title":"Decomposing the monetary policy multiplier","authors":"Piergiorgio Alessandri ,&nbsp;Òscar Jordà ,&nbsp;Fabrizio Venditti","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103783","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103783","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Financial markets play an important role in generating monetary policy transmission asymmetries in the U.S. Credit spreads only adjust to unexpected increases in interest rates, causing output and prices to respond more to a monetary contraction than to a monetary loosening. At a one year horizon, the ‘financial multiplier’ of monetary policy — defined as the ratio between the cumulative responses of employment and credit spreads — is zero for a monetary loosening, -2 for a monetary contraction, and -4 for a monetary contraction that takes place under strained credit market conditions. These results have important policy implications: monetary policy may become inadvertently tight in times of financial distress.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103783"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Production and inventory dynamics under ambiguity aversion 歧义规避下的生产与库存动态
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103767
Yulei Luo , Jun Nie , Xiaowen Wang , Eric R. Young
{"title":"Production and inventory dynamics under ambiguity aversion","authors":"Yulei Luo ,&nbsp;Jun Nie ,&nbsp;Xiaowen Wang ,&nbsp;Eric R. Young","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103767","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103767","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper we propose a production-cost smoothing model with Knightian uncertainty and ambiguity aversion to study the joint behavior of production, inventories, and sales. Our model can explain ten facts that previous studies find difficult to account for simultaneously including the high volatility of production relative to sales, the low ratio of inventory-investment volatility to sales volatility, the positive correlation between sales and inventory investment, and the negative correlation between the inventory-to-sales ratio and sales. Our main results extend to a model of endogenous sales. Finally, we find that the stock-out avoidance motive emerges endogenously in our model, reconciling the long debate in the inventory literature over the production-cost smoothing and stock-out avoidance models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103767"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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