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Macro and micro of external finance premium and monetary policy transmission 外部融资溢价和货币政策传导的宏观与微观
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103634
Carlo Altavilla , Refet S. Gürkaynak , Rogier Quaedvlieg
{"title":"Macro and micro of external finance premium and monetary policy transmission","authors":"Carlo Altavilla ,&nbsp;Refet S. Gürkaynak ,&nbsp;Rogier Quaedvlieg","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103634","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103634","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We establish basic facts about the external finance premium. Tens of millions of individual loan contracts extended to euro area firms allow studying the determinants of the external finance premium at the country, bank, firm, and contract levels of disaggregation. At the country level, the variance in the premium is closely linked to sovereign spreads, which are important in understanding financial amplification mechanisms. However, country level differences only explain half of the total variance. The rest is predominantly attributed to variances at the bank and firm levels, which are influenced by the respective balance sheet characteristics. Studying the response of the external finance premium to monetary policy, we find that balance sheet vulnerabilities of banks and firms strengthen the transmission of policy measures to financing conditions. Moreover, our findings reveal an asymmetrical effect contingent on the sign and type of the policies. Specifically, policy rate hikes and quantitative easing measures exert a more pronounced impact on lending spreads, further magnified through their repercussions on the external finance premium.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103634"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141940764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The monetary financing of a large fiscal shock 大规模财政冲击的货币融资
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103630
Pedro Teles , Oreste Tristani
{"title":"The monetary financing of a large fiscal shock","authors":"Pedro Teles ,&nbsp;Oreste Tristani","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103630","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103630","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Motivated by the surge in debt levels through the pandemic crisis, we revisit the issue of the optimal financing of public debt. In contrast to existing results, we find that the optimal response of inflation to a large increase in public spending is a gradual, significant and long-lasting rise in inflation. Our conclusion is due to a different assumption on the source of nominal rigidities. While the literature has focused on sticky prices, of either the Calvo (1983) or Rotemberg (1982) type, we consider sticky plans as in the sticky information set up of Mankiw and Reis (2002). A crucial feature of our results is that a significant inflation response is desirable if the maturity of public debt is (realistically) long.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103630"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393224000837/pdfft?md5=3c09b6e0c5d118e98068e9f6c6bd59cc&pid=1-s2.0-S0304393224000837-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141693690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stabilization vs. Redistribution: The optimal monetary–fiscal mix 稳定与再分配：货币与财政的最佳组合
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103623
Florin O. Bilbiie , Tommaso Monacelli , Roberto Perotti
{"title":"Stabilization vs. Redistribution: The optimal monetary–fiscal mix","authors":"Florin O. Bilbiie ,&nbsp;Tommaso Monacelli ,&nbsp;Roberto Perotti","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103623","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103623","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Stabilization and redistribution are intertwined in a model with heterogeneity, imperfect insurance, and nominal rigidity—making fiscal and monetary policy inextricably linked for aggregate-demand management. Movements in inequality induced by fiscal transfers make the flexible-price equilibrium suboptimal, thus triggering a stabilization vs redistribution tradeoff. Likewise, changes in government spending that are associated with changes in the distribution of taxes (progressive vs. regressive) induce a tradeoff for monetary policy: the central bank cannot stabilize real activity at its efficient level (including insurance) and simultaneously avoid inflation. Fiscal policy can be used in conjunction to monetary policy to strike the optimal balance between stabilization and insurance (redistribution) motives.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103623"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030439322400076X/pdfft?md5=4450e0c55fae6e61ecf1ff41905a331a&pid=1-s2.0-S030439322400076X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141706519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cross-country unemployment insurance, transfers, and trade-offs in international risk sharing 国际风险分担中的跨国失业保险、转移和权衡
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103622
Zeno Enders, David Vespermann
{"title":"Cross-country unemployment insurance, transfers, and trade-offs in international risk sharing","authors":"Zeno Enders,&nbsp;David Vespermann","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103622","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103622","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A prerequisite for an optimum currency area are limited divergent developments. In this paper, we assess analytically whether an international transfer mechanism can enhance consumption risk sharing and efficiency of the international division of production in a monetary union. We also derive quantitative results for a potential European unemployment benefit scheme (EUBS). A EUBS can provide risk sharing by stabilizing relative consumption and unemployment differentials. Following supply and government-spending shocks, however, a EUBS would additionally reduce allocative efficiency. The welfare effects of a EUBS hence depend on the underlying cause for cross-country differentials. A EUBS that is only active after specific shocks would maximize overall welfare. Even without such a selective activation, a EUBS would raise welfare in European Core countries in the quantitative model, leaving welfare in the Periphery almost unchanged. During the euro crisis, the Periphery would have benefited from substantial transfers from the Core.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103622"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393224000758/pdfft?md5=53e27e26939d3a0e1633bcbde495f73f&pid=1-s2.0-S0304393224000758-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141710163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Energy prices and household heterogeneity: Monetary policy in a Gas-TANK 能源价格与家庭异质性：天然气罐中的货币政策
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103620
Jenny Chan , Sebastian Diz , Derrick Kanngiesser
{"title":"Energy prices and household heterogeneity: Monetary policy in a Gas-TANK","authors":"Jenny Chan ,&nbsp;Sebastian Diz ,&nbsp;Derrick Kanngiesser","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103620","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103620","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>How does household heterogeneity affect the transmission of an energy price shock? What are the implications for monetary policy? We develop a small, open-economy TANK model that features labor and an energy import good as complementary production inputs (Gas-TANK). Given such complementarities, higher energy prices reduce the labor share of total income. Due to borrowing constraints, this translates into a drop in aggregate demand. Higher price flexibility insures firm profits from energy price shocks, further depressing labor income and demand. We illustrate how the transmission of shocks in a RANK versus a TANK depends on the degree of complementarity between energy and labor in production and the extent of price rigidities. Optimal monetary policy is less contractionary in a TANK and can even be expansionary when credit constraints are severe. Finally, we show that the contractionary effect of energy price shocks on demand cannot be generalized to alternate supply shocks.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103620"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141871463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Revisiting the monetary transmission mechanism through an industry-level differential approach 通过行业差异法重新审视货币传导机制
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103556
Sangyup Choi , Tim Willems , Seung Yong Yoo
{"title":"Revisiting the monetary transmission mechanism through an industry-level differential approach","authors":"Sangyup Choi ,&nbsp;Tim Willems ,&nbsp;Seung Yong Yoo","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103556","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103556","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Combining industry-level data on output and prices with novel monetary policy shock estimates for 102 countries, we analyze how the effects of monetary policy vary with industry characteristics. Next to being interesting in their own right, our findings are informative on the importance of various transmission mechanisms, as they are thought to vary systematically with the included characteristics. Results suggest that monetary policy has greater output effects in industries featuring assets that are more difficult to collateralize or consisting of smaller firms, consistent with the credit channel, followed by industries producing durables, as predicted by the interest rate channel. The credit channel is stronger during bad times as well as in countries with lower levels of financial development, in line with financial accelerator logic. We do not find support for the cost channel of monetary policy, and only limited support for a channel running via exports. Our database (containing monetary policy shock estimates for 176 countries) may be of independent interest to researchers.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"145 ","pages":"Article 103556"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139764563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abrupt monetary policy change and unanchoring of inflation expectations 货币政策突变与通胀预期脱锚
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103576
{"title":"Abrupt monetary policy change and unanchoring of inflation expectations","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103576","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103576","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Inflation expectations can quickly become unanchored if the central bank undermines its commitment to the inflation target. This paper exploits an abrupt change in monetary policy by the Brazilian Central Bank in 2011 and microdata from a daily survey of professional forecasters to establish support for this claim. Reanchoring came only years later, after a regime shift that included a change of government. A simple model with a well-defined concept of (un)anchored inflation expectations provides a coherent explanation and structural interpretation of our empirical findings.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"145 ","pages":"Article 103576"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140801884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What moves markets? 是什么推动了市场？
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103560
Mark Kerssenfischer , Maik Schmeling
{"title":"What moves markets?","authors":"Mark Kerssenfischer ,&nbsp;Maik Schmeling","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103560","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103560","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>What share of asset price movements is driven by news? We build a large, time-stamped event database covering scheduled macro news as well as unscheduled events and find that news account for up to 35% of bond and stock price movements in the United States and euro area since 2002. This suggests that a much larger share of return variation can be traced back to observable news than previously thought. Moreover, we provide stylized facts about the <em>type</em> of news that matter most for asset prices, spillover effects between the US and euro area, and the predictability of monetary policy shocks.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"145 ","pages":"Article 103560"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393224000138/pdfft?md5=acea5354f8681d4b4944d639105a9fd8&pid=1-s2.0-S0304393224000138-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140036618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beyond Pangloss: Financial sector origins of inefficient economic booms 超越彭罗斯效率低下的经济繁荣源于金融业
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103558
Frederic Malherbe , Michael McMahon
{"title":"Beyond Pangloss: Financial sector origins of inefficient economic booms","authors":"Frederic Malherbe ,&nbsp;Michael McMahon","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103558","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103558","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Government guarantees of bank liabilities have a long-standing history and are now ubiquitous. We study a model where financial sophistication enhances banks’ ability to exploit government guarantees and fuels inefficient economic booms. Driven by financial engineering, bank rent extraction creates a disconnect between lending decisions and borrower repayment prospects: In equilibrium, banks over-lend and only break-even courtesy of trading book profit. Exploitability is affected not only by financial sophistication but also by regulation. Given the pattern for regulatory changes in the last few decades, we posit that the Great Recession, partly, reversed a Great Distortion.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"145 ","pages":"Article 103558"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393224000114/pdfft?md5=8f47ae7427497eba467b3e3e466e566c&pid=1-s2.0-S0304393224000114-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139920585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence 间接消费者通胀预期：理论与证据
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103568
{"title":"Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103568","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103568","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Based on indirect utility theory, we ask consumers about the change in their incomes that would be required to offset expected price changes and buy the same amounts of goods and services one year ahead in a large-scale, high-frequency survey of consumers in the US and 14 other countries. Aggregating responses across consumers provides an alternative, indirect measure of inflation<span> expectations compared with conventional, direct measures, but with theoretically lower ex-post forecast errors. The survey responses show that indirect consumer inflation expectations<span> vary based on age, gender, individual inflation experiences, and local shocks. Exploiting rich cross-sectional variation, inflation expectations increase by slightly more in response to gasoline price changes than implied by their expenditure share.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"145 ","pages":"Article 103568"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139951846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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