Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103568

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Based on indirect utility theory, we ask consumers about the change in their incomes that would be required to offset expected price changes and buy the same amounts of goods and services one year ahead in a large-scale, high-frequency survey of consumers in the US and 14 other countries. Aggregating responses across consumers provides an alternative, indirect measure of inflation expectations compared with conventional, direct measures, but with theoretically lower ex-post forecast errors. The survey responses show that indirect consumer inflation expectations vary based on age, gender, individual inflation experiences, and local shocks. Exploiting rich cross-sectional variation, inflation expectations increase by slightly more in response to gasoline price changes than implied by their expenditure share.

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间接消费者通胀预期：理论与证据

基于间接效用理论，我们对美国和其他 14 个国家的消费者进行了大规模、高频率的调查，询问消费者抵消预期价格变化并在一年前购买相同数量的商品和服务所需的收入变化。与传统的直接测量方法相比，汇总消费者的回答提供了另一种间接的通胀预期测量方法，但理论上事后预测误差较小。调查结果显示，消费者的间接通胀预期因年龄、性别、个人通胀经历和当地冲击而异。利用丰富的横截面变化，通胀预期对汽油价格变化的反应略高于其支出份额所暗示的反应。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Monetary Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

4.90%

发文量

审稿时长

74 days

期刊介绍： The profession has witnessed over the past twenty years a remarkable expansion of research activities bearing on problems in the broader field of monetary economics. The strong interest in monetary analysis has been increasingly matched in recent years by the growing attention to the working and structure of financial institutions. The role of various institutional arrangements, the consequences of specific changes in banking structure and the welfare aspects of structural policies have attracted an increasing interest in the profession. There has also been a growing attention to the operation of credit markets and to various aspects in the behavior of rates of return on assets. The Journal of Monetary Economics provides a specialized forum for the publication of this research.