Abrupt monetary policy change and unanchoring of inflation expectations

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103576

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Inflation expectations can quickly become unanchored if the central bank undermines its commitment to the inflation target. This paper exploits an abrupt change in monetary policy by the Brazilian Central Bank in 2011 and microdata from a daily survey of professional forecasters to establish support for this claim. Reanchoring came only years later, after a regime shift that included a change of government. A simple model with a well-defined concept of (un)anchored inflation expectations provides a coherent explanation and structural interpretation of our empirical findings.

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货币政策突变与通胀预期脱锚

如果中央银行破坏其对通胀目标的承诺，通胀预期就会很快失去锚定。本文利用巴西中央银行 2011 年货币政策的突然变化以及对专业预测者进行的每日调查的微观数据来证实这一说法。数年后，在包括政府更迭在内的制度转变之后，巴西才重新锚定了通胀目标。一个定义明确的（非）锚定通胀预期概念的简单模型为我们的实证研究结果提供了连贯的解释和结构性诠释。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Monetary Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

4.90%

发文量

审稿时长

74 days

期刊介绍： The profession has witnessed over the past twenty years a remarkable expansion of research activities bearing on problems in the broader field of monetary economics. The strong interest in monetary analysis has been increasingly matched in recent years by the growing attention to the working and structure of financial institutions. The role of various institutional arrangements, the consequences of specific changes in banking structure and the welfare aspects of structural policies have attracted an increasing interest in the profession. There has also been a growing attention to the operation of credit markets and to various aspects in the behavior of rates of return on assets. The Journal of Monetary Economics provides a specialized forum for the publication of this research.