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International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with sanctions 国际贸易和宏观经济动态与制裁
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103810
Fabio Ghironi , Daisoon Kim , Galip Kemal Ozhan
{"title":"International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with sanctions","authors":"Fabio Ghironi ,&nbsp;Daisoon Kim ,&nbsp;Galip Kemal Ozhan","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103810","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103810","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a framework combining dynamic, intertemporal choices of general-equilibrium macro models with microfoundations of modern trade theory to study sanctions. In a two-country, two-sector setup, Home holds a comparative advantage in producing differentiated consumption goods via heterogeneous firms with endogenous entry, while Foreign in homogeneous intermediate goods from a fixed number of firms. Sanctions include trade bans and financial restrictions excluding particular Foreign agents from markets. In our model, sanctions reallocate resources across and within countries, affecting production, exchange rates, and welfare, with larger welfare losses when targeting sectors of comparative disadvantage. Focusing only on long-run outcomes, overlooking initial dynamics, inaccurately assesses welfare impacts. Sanctions weaken international comovement and fragment markets but leave business cycles intact.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 103810"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144809739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What’s driving the decline in entrepreneurship? 是什么导致了创业的减少？
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103812
Nicholas Kozeniauskas
{"title":"What’s driving the decline in entrepreneurship?","authors":"Nicholas Kozeniauskas","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103812","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103812","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Why has there been a steady decline in entrepreneurship in the US in recent decades? To answer this question, I develop a general equilibrium occupation choice model and combine it with data on these choices. Skill-biased technical change can account for much of the decline in the relative entrepreneurship rate of more educated people, but cannot explain the decline in the aggregate level of entrepreneurship. The major factors in the decline in the share of people who are entrepreneurs, the firm entry rate, and the size of the entrepreneur sector are rising entry costs and outsized productivity gains by large non-entrepreneur firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 103812"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144809836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Committed to flexible fiscal rules 致力于灵活的财政规则
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103809
Christoph Grosse-Steffen , Laura Pagenhardt , Malte Rieth
{"title":"Committed to flexible fiscal rules","authors":"Christoph Grosse-Steffen ,&nbsp;Laura Pagenhardt ,&nbsp;Malte Rieth","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103809","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103809","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the implications of fiscal rules for macroeconomic stabilization when countries are hit by adverse exogenous shocks. Exploiting the unpredictability of natural disasters, we document that economies with a fiscal rule absorb these shocks better than those without: the responses of GDP and private demand are significantly higher. This difference is coupled with more expansionary fiscal policy and hinges on fiscal space. We analyze the interaction of rule flexibility and rule tightness in a quantitative model of sovereign default that exerts strong market discipline on governments conditional on disaster shocks. The results show potential welfare gains and a countercyclical fiscal response to adverse disaster shocks in the presence of tight rules and escape clauses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 103809"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144809738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal unemployment insurance with multiple applications 多重应用的最优失业保险
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103798
Shu Lin Wee
{"title":"Optimal unemployment insurance with multiple applications","authors":"Shu Lin Wee","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103798","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103798","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how unemployment transfers should be allocated over the business cycle. When risk-averse workers can submit multiple applications, the optimal UI policy is countercyclical. In contrast, optimal policy in a standard search model featuring one-to-one matching is procyclical. In the latter, more generous UI during a downturn discourages search effort, dampening job creation. In the former, decreased search effort aids job creation. Because firms cannot coordinate and commit to not making the same worker an offer, lower search effort by reducing the number of applications sent mitigates this coordination friction. This in turn boosts job creation incentives, supporting employment outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 103798"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144809735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Negative nominal interest rates and monetary policy 负名义利率与货币政策
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103799
Duhyeong Kim
{"title":"Negative nominal interest rates and monetary policy","authors":"Duhyeong Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103799","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103799","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How much can central banks reduce nominal interest rates? Can the lower bound be controlled by monetary policy? If so, should central banks reduce it to implement negative interest rates? I construct a model with multiple means of payment where the costs of holding paper currency effectively reduce its rate of return, creating a negative effective lower bound on interest rates. I find that central banks can reduce this lower bound with <em>a non-par exchange rate</em> between currency and bank reserves, but doing so raises currency-holding costs for individuals, leading to welfare losses. Moreover, implementing a negative rate by reducing the lower bound has no benefits because this policy combination lowers both the rate of return on currency and the interest rate on financial assets, leaving relative interest rates unchanged.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 103799"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144809736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Merger guidelines for the labor market 劳动力市场的合并指南
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103785
David Berger , Thomas Hasenzagl , Kyle Herkenhoff , Simon Mongey , Eric A. Posner
{"title":"Merger guidelines for the labor market","authors":"David Berger ,&nbsp;Thomas Hasenzagl ,&nbsp;Kyle Herkenhoff ,&nbsp;Simon Mongey ,&nbsp;Eric A. Posner","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103785","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103785","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>What are the welfare, wage, and output implications of applying merger review guidelines to the labor market? To answer this question, we develop a theory of multi-plant ownership and labor market monopsony. We estimate the model using U.S. Census data and demonstrate the model’s ability to replicate empirically documented paths of employment and wages following mergers. We then simulate a representative set of U.S. mergers in order to evaluate merger review thresholds. Assuming mergers generate efficiency gains of 5 percent, our simulations yield welfare losses under the enforcement of the more lenient 2010 merger guidelines and welfare gains under enforcement of the more stringent 2023 and 1982 merger guidelines. Lastly, we estimate the aggregate effects of allowed mergers on output and labor’s share of income under each set of merger guidelines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 103785"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beyond the headline: How personal exposure to inflation shapes the financial choices of households 在标题之外：个人对通货膨胀的敞口如何影响家庭的财务选择
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103800
Merike Kukk , Jan Toczynski , Christoph Basten
{"title":"Beyond the headline: How personal exposure to inflation shapes the financial choices of households","authors":"Merike Kukk ,&nbsp;Jan Toczynski ,&nbsp;Christoph Basten","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103800","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103800","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a unique set of bank account-level data from a period of volatile inflation in a small open economy in 2005–11 and interactive fixed effect estimation, we find that individual consumption spending responds to personal inflation exposure beyond the headline rate. Households are exposed to different inflation because they have different expenditure baskets. For each percentage point of higher personal inflation rate, they increase their spending by 1.4%. These responses are consistent with intertemporal substitution when households form their inflation expectations from their personal experience. Increased spending is financed with savings or borrowing, except when households are liquidity-constrained or over-indebted. Extra demand when inflation is already high can make inflation persistent and dependent on its current distribution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 103800"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fueling expectations: The causal impact of gas prices on Inflation Expectations 助推预期：汽油价格对通胀预期的因果影响
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103797
Yoon Joo Jo, Ben Klopack
{"title":"Fueling expectations: The causal impact of gas prices on Inflation Expectations","authors":"Yoon Joo Jo,&nbsp;Ben Klopack","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103797","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103797","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the effects of temporary state-level gas tax suspensions on inflation expectations. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we show that households in states that lower the gas tax reduce their inflation expectations, but the impact of the policy depends on how much of the tax cut was passed through to prices. We provide new causal evidence of the link between gas prices and household inflation expectations and demonstrate that gas prices play a more significant role in shaping inflation expectations than previously suggested in the literature. We also show experimental evidence that informing households about the tax reduction leads them to adjust their inflation expectations downward. However, we do not find evidence that temporary gas tax suspensions had a stimulative effect on consumption. These findings underscore the potential for alternative policy levers to influence household beliefs and behavior.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 103797"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
(Re-)Connecting inflation and the labor market: A tale of two curves （重新）连接通货膨胀和劳动力市场：两条曲线的故事
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103796
Hie Joo Ahn, Jeremy B. Rudd
{"title":"(Re-)Connecting inflation and the labor market: A tale of two curves","authors":"Hie Joo Ahn,&nbsp;Jeremy B. Rudd","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103796","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103796","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose an empirical framework in which shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply drive the joint dynamics of the labor market and inflation, and where reallocation shocks take two forms depending on whether they result from quits or from job losses. We find that these structural shocks, which affect the Beveridge curve, have different effects on inflation. Our model fully decomposes shifts of or along the empirical Beveridge curve in terms of the contribution of each shock and also allows us to estimate the Phillips correlation associated with each shock; observed Beveridge and Phillips correlations change over time depending on what types of structural shocks predominate in a given period. We find that reallocation shocks that accompany job losses were a key source of labor market dynamics and the steepening of the reduced-form Phillips curve during the Covid-19 pandemic, and were an important driver of the post-pandemic “soft landing.”</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 103796"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sovereign CoCos and debt forgiveness 主权CoCos和债务减免
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103784
Juan Carlos Hatchondo , Leonardo Martinez , Yasin Kürşat Önder , Francisco Roch
{"title":"Sovereign CoCos and debt forgiveness","authors":"Juan Carlos Hatchondo ,&nbsp;Leonardo Martinez ,&nbsp;Yasin Kürşat Önder ,&nbsp;Francisco Roch","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103784","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103784","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study a sovereign default model in which the government issues CoCos (contingent convertible bonds) that stipulate a suspension of debt payments upon a sizable increase of the global risk premium (and thus, of the government’s borrowing cost). We find that CoCos allow the government to smooth out the effects of risk-premium shocks on consumption, but they increase the default frequency. By suspending debt payments, CoCos imply higher debt levels and, thus, higher default probabilities after adverse shocks. We also study CoCos that, in addition to the payment suspension, stipulate debt forgiveness after adverse shocks. In contrast with no-forgiveness CoCos, debt-forgiveness CoCos reduce debt levels after adverse shocks, thereby reducing default probabilities. Debt-forgiveness CoCos also yield larger welfare gains.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 103784"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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