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Dissecting the great retirement boom 剖析退休潮
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103870
Serdar Birinci , Miguel Faria-e-Castro , Kurt See
{"title":"Dissecting the great retirement boom","authors":"Serdar Birinci ,&nbsp;Miguel Faria-e-Castro ,&nbsp;Kurt See","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103870","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103870","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Between 2020 and 2023, the fraction of retirees in the working-age population in the U.S. increased above its pre-pandemic trend. Several explanations have been proposed to rationalize this gap, including increases in net worth, the deterioration of the labor market with higher job separations, the expansion of fiscal transfer programs, and higher mortality risk. We develop an incomplete markets, overlapping generations model with a frictional labor market to quantitatively study the interaction of these factors and decompose their contributions to the rise in retirements. We find that new retirements were concentrated at the bottom of the income distribution, and the most important factors driving the rise in retirements were higher job separations and the expansion of fiscal transfers. We show that our model’s predictions on aggregate labor market moments and cross-sectional moments on retirement patterns across income and wealth distributions are in line with the data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103870"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inequality and asset prices during Sudden Stops 突然止损期间的不平等和资产价格
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103872
Sergio Villalvazo
{"title":"Inequality and asset prices during Sudden Stops","authors":"Sergio Villalvazo","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103872","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103872","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the cross-sectional dimension of Fisher’s debt-deflation mechanism that triggers endogenous Sudden Stop crises — i.e., episodes with large reversals in the current account. Analyzing microdata from Mexico, we show that this dimension has macroeconomic implications that operate via opposing effects. First, an amplifying effect by which households with high leverage fire-sale their assets during crises, increasing downward pressure on asset prices. Second, a dampening effect by which wealthy households with low leverage buy depressed assets, relieving downward pressure on asset prices. As a result, the role of inequality during crises is ambiguous. We conduct a quantitative analysis using a calibrated small open economy, asset-pricing model with heterogeneous agents and aggregate risk to measure the effects of inequality during crises. The model suggests that economies with lower inequality, whether due to reduced idiosyncratic risk or wealth redistribution across agents, experience less severe crises, as observed in the data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103872"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Generating inflation expectations with large language models 使用大型语言模型生成通胀预期
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103859
Ali Zarifhonarvar
{"title":"Generating inflation expectations with large language models","authors":"Ali Zarifhonarvar","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103859","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103859","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the generation of inflation expectations using generative AI in survey experiments, examining diverse agents created with both proprietary and open-source large language models (LLMs). It shows that model architecture significantly impacts expectations, with proprietary models generally exhibiting less disagreement in their responses than open-source alternatives. Some LLMs predict higher inflation than actual rates, aligning with patterns observed in the Survey of Consumer Expectations. Information treatments, particularly forward guidance on inflation, influence LLMs’ inflation expectations, though with varying magnitudes across model types. Customizing prompts with demographic personas induces heterogeneous responses that mirror human survey behaviors, with some biases similar to those documented in household surveys. The paper also demonstrates how central banks could leverage these models as communication policy tools to test messaging strategies before implementation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103859"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Lender concentration of external debts and sudden stops 贷款人外债集中而突然停止
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103874
Chun-Che Chi
{"title":"Lender concentration of external debts and sudden stops","authors":"Chun-Che Chi","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103874","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103874","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies how the lender structure of external debt affects open economies’ credit conditions via a model with lenders of varying sizes. While atomistic lenders take the collateral price as given, large lenders internalize the pecuniary externality whereby selling foreclosed collateral injects supply and reduces its price. Thus, concentrating external debt in a few large lenders supports a high collateral price during financial downturns, leading borrowers to demand less precautionary savings and overborrow. I document that emerging countries borrow from significantly fewer banks than advanced countries, implying that emerging countries tend to overborrow. This new mechanism complements the existing view of overborrowing due to the pecuniary externality of the borrowers. Under plausible parameterization, the size of the pecuniary externality internalized by lenders is two-thirds of that internalized by borrowers. Finally, allowing lender countries to optimally choose lender structure increases lender concentration, raises debt, and improves borrowers’ welfare.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103874"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bridging micro and macro production functions: The fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment 衔接微观与宏观生产功能：基础设施投资的财政乘数
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103873
Minsu Chang , Hanbaek Lee
{"title":"Bridging micro and macro production functions: The fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment","authors":"Minsu Chang ,&nbsp;Hanbaek Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103873","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103873","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment using an estimated heterogeneous-firm general equilibrium model. We theoretically and quantitatively show that the firm-level non-rivalry in infrastructure usage drives a significant discrepancy in the estimated input elasticities between the firm and state levels. Moreover, it microfounds the increasing returns to scale assumption in a representative-agent framework (Baxter and King, 1993). The quantitative findings indicate a fiscal multiplier of approximately 1.15 over a 2-year horizon, suggesting a significantly greater net economic benefit than the representative-agent model prediction. This is due to the low sensitivity of the firm-level investment to the general equilibrium effect, followed by a significantly dampened crowding out.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103873"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Soft landing and inflation scares 软着陆和通胀恐慌
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103871
James Bullard , Alex Grimaud , Isabelle Salle , Gauthier Vermandel
{"title":"Soft landing and inflation scares","authors":"James Bullard ,&nbsp;Alex Grimaud ,&nbsp;Isabelle Salle ,&nbsp;Gauthier Vermandel","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103871","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103871","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We discuss the timing and strength of the Fed’s reaction to the recent inflation surge within an estimated macroeconomic model where long-run inflation expectations are heterogeneous and can lose their anchoring to the target. The resulting inflation scare worsens the real cost of disinflation. We derive a closed-form solution that retains the entire time-varying cross-sectional distribution of subjective inflation beliefs. We estimate the model using Bayesian techniques on both US macroeconomic time series and forecast data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Counterfactual simulations show that the timing – rather than the strength – of the policy reaction to the inflation surge is critical to contain the development of an inflation scare and prevent the entrenchment of above-target inflation. We show that the Fed fell behind the curve in 2021 since an earlier tightening could have reduced the inflation peak without triggering a recession. However, further delays would have unanchored inflation expectations, aggravated the inflation scare and strengthened the inflation surge, resulting in larger output losses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103871"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145624931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Consumer durables and monetary policy according to HANK 根据汉克的耐用品消费和货币政策
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103883
Emil Holst Partsch , Ivan Petrella , Emiliano Santoro
{"title":"Consumer durables and monetary policy according to HANK","authors":"Emil Holst Partsch ,&nbsp;Ivan Petrella ,&nbsp;Emiliano Santoro","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103883","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103883","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Durables’ interest-rate sensitivity and their persistent comovement with nondurable spending are hallmarks of monetary policy transmission. We develop a two-sector HANK model that replicates this pattern—both across spending categories and among households sorted by liquid asset holdings, consistent with empirical evidence. Direct effects of real interest rate changes are quantitatively important in reproducing sectoral expenditure comovement, while infrequent information updating is crucial to match the hump-shaped dynamics of sectoral and aggregate expenditures. Income effects are essential to preventing counterfactual declines in nondurable spending resulting from fiscal interventions specifically aimed at stimulating durable purchases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103883"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The natural rate of interest through a hall of mirrors 透过一大厅镜子看到的自然利率
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103858
Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, Fabian Winkler
{"title":"The natural rate of interest through a hall of mirrors","authors":"Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul,&nbsp;Fabian Winkler","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103858","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103858","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a novel explanation for persistent movements in the natural rate of interest, or r-star, based on a model of two-sided learning between the central bank and the private sector. Each side has some information about r-star fundamentals and also learns from observing output, inflation and interest rates. When both sides fail to recognise that their actions influence the other’s beliefs, a “hall-of-mirrors” effect arises that causes persistent shifts in r-star in response to cyclical shocks. The model can explain the post-2008 decline in r-star without changes in long-run fundamentals, as well as the excess sensitivity of long-term yields to monetary policy surprises and the underreaction of interest rate forecasts. Aggressive policy easing designed to counter a recession can inadvertently lower r-star and endogenously narrow policy space.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103858"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A theory of fear of floating 害怕漂浮的理论
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103869
Javier Bianchi , Louphou Coulibaly
{"title":"A theory of fear of floating","authors":"Javier Bianchi ,&nbsp;Louphou Coulibaly","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103869","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103869","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Central banks with flexible exchange rate regimes are often reluctant to let their currency float, a phenomenon known as “fear of floating.” We develop a framework in which a floating exchange rate may exacerbate vulnerability to self-fulfilling financial crises rather than provide the intended insulation against external shocks. A commitment to a crawling peg—where the currency can fluctuate within a predetermined band—can help mitigate the risk of self-fulfilling crises. In contrast to the Mundell–Fleming paradigm, the optimal exchange rate policy entails allowing the exchange rate to float in response to real shocks while maintaining it fixed in response to non-fundamental shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103869"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Biased surveys 有偏见的调查
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103868
Luca Gemmi , Rosen Valchev
{"title":"Biased surveys","authors":"Luca Gemmi ,&nbsp;Rosen Valchev","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103868","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103868","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We find empirical evidence that surveys of professional forecasters are biased by strategic incentives. First, we find that individual forecasts overreact to idiosyncratic information but underreact to common information. We show this is consistent with a model of strategic diversification incentives in forecast reporting where forecasters want to optimally “stand out” from the crowd, and thus report forecasts that exaggerate the agents’ true beliefs. Second, we show that no such biases are present in forecasts data that is not subject to strategic incentives. We also test further comparative statics that also confirm the strategic incentive model. Overall, we conclude that strategic reporting biases the inference an econometrician can draw on the true underlying expectations formation process, and the precision and heterogeneity in agents’ information sets, and lastly we show how to correct for this.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103868"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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