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Central bank reputation with noise 央行声誉与噪音
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103906
Manuel Amador, Christopher Phelan
{"title":"Central bank reputation with noise","authors":"Manuel Amador,&nbsp;Christopher Phelan","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103906","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103906","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a model of central bank reputation where inflation is a noisy function of central bank actions. In the model, a central bank can be “hawkish”, with a relatively high penalty for taking inflationary actions, or “dovish”, with a relatively low penalty. The central bank’s type varies according to a Markov process, and its reputation is the Bayesian posterior of households that it is a hawkish type. We show analytically that no Markov pooling equilibria exist: hawkish and dovish central banks must act differently. We then argue that without sufficient noise, it is difficult for Markov separating equilibria to exist either. But <em>with</em> sufficient noise, we show computationally that pure strategy separating equilibria exist and have appealing characteristics: both hawkish and dovish banks choose lower inflationary actions than they would in the absence of reputation considerations, and both types are most aggressive in attempting to gain a hawkish reputation when their current reputation is middling.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103906"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wage growth and labor market tightness 工资增长和劳动力市场紧缩
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103903
Sebastian Heise, Jeremy Pearce, Jacob P. Weber
{"title":"Wage growth and labor market tightness","authors":"Sebastian Heise,&nbsp;Jeremy Pearce,&nbsp;Jacob P. Weber","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103903","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103903","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Good measures of labor market tightness are essential to predict wage inflation and to calibrate monetary policy. This paper highlights the importance of two measures of labor market tightness in determining wage growth: the quits rate and vacancies per effective searcher (V/ES)—where searchers include both employed and non-employed job seekers. Among a broad set of indicators of labor market tightness, we find that these two measures are independently the most strongly correlated with wage inflation both in aggregate time series data and in industry-level panel data, and also predict wage growth best out of sample. These results are consistent with the predictions of a New Keynesian DSGE model where firms have the power to set wages and workers search on the job. We develop a new composite indicator of labor market tightness that can be used by policymakers to predict wage pressures in real time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103903"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models DSGE模型中的专业调查预测和期望
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103885
Yuliya Rychalovska , Sergey Slobodyan , Rafael Wouters
{"title":"Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models","authors":"Yuliya Rychalovska ,&nbsp;Sergey Slobodyan ,&nbsp;Rafael Wouters","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103885","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103885","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes a strategy to exploit timely information from survey data to disentangle the effects of persistent and transitory shocks driving the real business cycle in DSGE models. Enhanced identification of fundamental shocks leads to significant improvement in the model’s fit. We also examine how structural models with alternative expectation formation mechanisms can address the limitations in information processing often observed in surveys. Our analysis shows that Rational Expectations model with observed survey data generates predictable forecast errors, inheriting this property from survey expectations. We emphasize an important role of the time-varying propagation mechanism under learning, which reduces the constrains imposed by the complete rationality assumption and allows for more efficient integration of surveys in macro models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103885"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145898047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The timing of shocks matters in optimal monetary policy 冲击的时机对最优货币政策至关重要
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103896
Toyoichiro Shirota
{"title":"The timing of shocks matters in optimal monetary policy","authors":"Toyoichiro Shirota","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103896","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103896","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores optimal monetary policy in an economy with seasonal wage staggering. The findings reveal that the slope of the Phillips curve and the weights in the welfare loss function systematically differ by quarter. Consequently, optimal policy responses vary depending on the timing of shocks within a calendar year. However, implementing history-dependent policy rules can effectively mitigate much of the welfare deterioration that would otherwise occur when policymakers fail to adopt these quarter-specific optimal policy responses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103896"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Firm dynamics and random search over the business cycle 商业周期中的企业动态和随机搜索
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103902
Richard Audoly
{"title":"Firm dynamics and random search over the business cycle","authors":"Richard Audoly","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103902","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103902","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I build a tractable random search model with firm dynamics, on-the-job search, and aggregate shocks. Multi-worker firms make recruitment decisions, choose whether to enter or exit the market, and design wage contracts. Tractability is obtained by showing that, under a set of assumptions on the recruitment technology, the decisions of workers and firms are fully summarized by the firms’ current productivity. I confront the model to salient business cycle moments on the reallocation of workers across the firm productivity distribution derived from firm-level data that the model successfully replicates. I use this framework to quantify the drivers of worker reallocation over the post-war business cycle in Britain.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103902"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Motivating banks to lend? Credit spillover effects of the Main Street Lending Program 激励银行放贷？普通民众贷款计划的信贷溢出效应
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103897
Camelia Minoiu , Rebecca Zarutskie , Andrei Zlate
{"title":"Motivating banks to lend? Credit spillover effects of the Main Street Lending Program","authors":"Camelia Minoiu ,&nbsp;Rebecca Zarutskie ,&nbsp;Andrei Zlate","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103897","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103897","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the effects of the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP)—a Federal Reserve emergency program which sought to support bank lending to small- and medium-sized businesses by purchasing 95% of eligible loans from banks—on the provision of bank credit to non-financial firms. We show the MSLP increased banks’ willingness to lend outside the program by serving as an “implicit backstop.” Participating banks were more likely to grant new loans, increase loan volumes, and reduce loan spreads, with stronger effects for ex-ante riskier firms and for lower-capital banks. We estimate that every $1 of take-up increased lending by $1.95.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103897"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dissecting the great retirement boom 剖析退休潮
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103870
Serdar Birinci , Miguel Faria-e-Castro , Kurt See
{"title":"Dissecting the great retirement boom","authors":"Serdar Birinci ,&nbsp;Miguel Faria-e-Castro ,&nbsp;Kurt See","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103870","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103870","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Between 2020 and 2023, the fraction of retirees in the working-age population in the U.S. increased above its pre-pandemic trend. Several explanations have been proposed to rationalize this gap, including increases in net worth, the deterioration of the labor market with higher job separations, the expansion of fiscal transfer programs, and higher mortality risk. We develop an incomplete markets, overlapping generations model with a frictional labor market to quantitatively study the interaction of these factors and decompose their contributions to the rise in retirements. We find that new retirements were concentrated at the bottom of the income distribution, and the most important factors driving the rise in retirements were higher job separations and the expansion of fiscal transfers. We show that our model’s predictions on aggregate labor market moments and cross-sectional moments on retirement patterns across income and wealth distributions are in line with the data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103870"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inequality and asset prices during Sudden Stops 突然止损期间的不平等和资产价格
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103872
Sergio Villalvazo
{"title":"Inequality and asset prices during Sudden Stops","authors":"Sergio Villalvazo","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103872","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103872","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the cross-sectional dimension of Fisher’s debt-deflation mechanism that triggers endogenous Sudden Stop crises — i.e., episodes with large reversals in the current account. Analyzing microdata from Mexico, we show that this dimension has macroeconomic implications that operate via opposing effects. First, an amplifying effect by which households with high leverage fire-sale their assets during crises, increasing downward pressure on asset prices. Second, a dampening effect by which wealthy households with low leverage buy depressed assets, relieving downward pressure on asset prices. As a result, the role of inequality during crises is ambiguous. We conduct a quantitative analysis using a calibrated small open economy, asset-pricing model with heterogeneous agents and aggregate risk to measure the effects of inequality during crises. The model suggests that economies with lower inequality, whether due to reduced idiosyncratic risk or wealth redistribution across agents, experience less severe crises, as observed in the data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103872"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Generating inflation expectations with large language models 使用大型语言模型生成通胀预期
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103859
Ali Zarifhonarvar
{"title":"Generating inflation expectations with large language models","authors":"Ali Zarifhonarvar","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103859","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103859","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the generation of inflation expectations using generative AI in survey experiments, examining diverse agents created with both proprietary and open-source large language models (LLMs). It shows that model architecture significantly impacts expectations, with proprietary models generally exhibiting less disagreement in their responses than open-source alternatives. Some LLMs predict higher inflation than actual rates, aligning with patterns observed in the Survey of Consumer Expectations. Information treatments, particularly forward guidance on inflation, influence LLMs’ inflation expectations, though with varying magnitudes across model types. Customizing prompts with demographic personas induces heterogeneous responses that mirror human survey behaviors, with some biases similar to those documented in household surveys. The paper also demonstrates how central banks could leverage these models as communication policy tools to test messaging strategies before implementation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103859"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Lender concentration of external debts and sudden stops 贷款人外债集中而突然停止
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103874
Chun-Che Chi
{"title":"Lender concentration of external debts and sudden stops","authors":"Chun-Che Chi","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103874","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103874","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies how the lender structure of external debt affects open economies’ credit conditions via a model with lenders of varying sizes. While atomistic lenders take the collateral price as given, large lenders internalize the pecuniary externality whereby selling foreclosed collateral injects supply and reduces its price. Thus, concentrating external debt in a few large lenders supports a high collateral price during financial downturns, leading borrowers to demand less precautionary savings and overborrow. I document that emerging countries borrow from significantly fewer banks than advanced countries, implying that emerging countries tend to overborrow. This new mechanism complements the existing view of overborrowing due to the pecuniary externality of the borrowers. Under plausible parameterization, the size of the pecuniary externality internalized by lenders is two-thirds of that internalized by borrowers. Finally, allowing lender countries to optimally choose lender structure increases lender concentration, raises debt, and improves borrowers’ welfare.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103874"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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