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Who gains from corporate tax cuts? 谁从企业减税中获益？
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103722
James Cloyne , Ezgi Kurt , Paolo Surico
{"title":"Who gains from corporate tax cuts?","authors":"James Cloyne ,&nbsp;Ezgi Kurt ,&nbsp;Paolo Surico","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103722","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103722","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Goods producers increase their capital expenditure and employment in response to a cut in marginal corporate income tax rates or an increase in investment tax credits. In contrast, companies in the service sector mostly use any tax windfall to increase dividend payouts. We base our conclusions on a novel measure of U.S. firm-specific tax shocks that combines changes in statutory tax rates faced by each firm with narrative identified legislated U.S. federal tax changes between 1950 and 2006.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103722"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143156354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Female entrepreneurship in the U.S. 1982–2012: Implications for welfare and aggregate output 1982-2012 年美国女性创业情况：对福利和总产出的影响
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103676
Pedro Bento
{"title":"Female entrepreneurship in the U.S. 1982–2012: Implications for welfare and aggregate output","authors":"Pedro Bento","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103676","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103676","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The number of women-owned businesses in the U.S. has soared over the last several decades. In 1982 less than 13 percent of businesses were majority-owned by women. By 2012 this number reached 40 percent. This and other evidence suggests that women have faced significant barriers to running businesses. Interpreted through the lens of a model of entrepreneurship, observed trends imply substantial declines in several barriers facing female entrepreneurs. Together, these changes account for almost 4 percent of observed growth in aggregate output and a 3 percent increase in workers’ consumption-equivalent welfare since 1982. By 2012, lower barriers increased the welfare of female entrepreneurs by a dramatic 116 percent, while lowering the welfare of male entrepreneurs by 5 percent. These impacts are in addition to any gains to workers from declining labor-market barriers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103676"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sovereign risk and Dutch disease 主权风险和荷兰病
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103663
Carlos Esquivel
{"title":"Sovereign risk and Dutch disease","authors":"Carlos Esquivel","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103663","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103663","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I study how, in the presence of default risk, the Dutch disease amplifies an inefficiency in the sectoral allocation of capital. In a sovereign default model with commodities and production of traded and non-traded goods, default incentives increase when more capital is allocated to non-traded production. Households do not internalize this, giving rise to an inefficiently large non-traded sector. Commodity windfalls amplify this inefficiency through the classic Dutch disease mechanism. I characterize state-contingent subsidies that implement the efficient allocation and compare them to a simpler subsidy rule that ameliorates the externality. Evidence from spreads, natural-resource rents, and sectoral investment data support the main findings of the model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103663"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring monetary policy in the UK: The UK monetary policy event-study database 衡量英国的货币政策：英国货币政策事件研究数据库
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103645
Robin Braun , Silvia Miranda-Agrippino , Tuli Saha
{"title":"Measuring monetary policy in the UK: The UK monetary policy event-study database","authors":"Robin Braun ,&nbsp;Silvia Miranda-Agrippino ,&nbsp;Tuli Saha","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103645","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103645","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We introduce the UK Monetary Policy Event-Study Database (UKMPD), a new and rich dataset of high-frequency monetary policy surprises for the United Kingdom. Intraday surprises are computed around the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee’s announcements, as well as around the press conference that follows the publication of the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. The dataset also includes factors that disentangle the different dimensions of UK monetary policy. We use the data to estimate the causal effects of UK monetary policy, and provide novel insights on how financial markets have responded to the changes in the communication strategy of the Bank of England.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103645"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141940765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal trend inflation in an open economy 开放经济中的最优趋势通货膨胀
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103675
Daeha Cho , Jung Hyun Kim , Kwang Hwan Kim , Suk Joon Kim
{"title":"Optimal trend inflation in an open economy","authors":"Daeha Cho ,&nbsp;Jung Hyun Kim ,&nbsp;Kwang Hwan Kim ,&nbsp;Suk Joon Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103675","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103675","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the optimal inflation target in an open economy with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates calibrated to the Euro area. When uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) holds, the optimal inflation target is smaller than in a closed economy. The key to this result is that real interest rates at the ZLB increase less as trade openness increases. This less pronounced increase in real interest rates in an open economy mitigates the contraction in aggregate demand, thus reducing the cost of ZLB. Additionally, the optimal inflation target in a monetary union is lower than in a flexible exchange rate regime: forming a monetary union results in a decrease in the optimal inflation rate by 0.24%, thereby increasing per-period welfare by 0.07%. When departures from UIP are significant, the optimal inflation target may be higher than in a closed economy, and the desirability of a monetary union increases further.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103675"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The collateral link between volatility and risk sharing 波动性和风险分担之间的抵押品联系
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103693
Sebastian Infante , Guillermo Ordoñez
{"title":"The collateral link between volatility and risk sharing","authors":"Sebastian Infante ,&nbsp;Guillermo Ordoñez","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103693","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103693","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We show that the effect of aggregate volatility on idiosyncratic risk sharing depends on the nature of collateral sustaining insurance. While volatility <em>increases</em> the value of public assets—more useful for consumption smoothing—it <em>decreases</em> the value of private assets—more exposed to aggregate variation. Hence, a more volatile economy weakens risk sharing when collateral composition is biased towards private assets. When applied to financial intermediaries that rely heavily on private collateral to share risks, aggregate instability is more likely to induce financial instability. We empirically show that the sensitivity of risk sharing to aggregate volatility indeed depends on the collateral composition as predicted by the theory.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103693"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143155950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A theory of net capital flows over the global financial cycle 全球金融周期中的净资本流动理论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103662
J. Scott Davis , Eric van Wincoop
{"title":"A theory of net capital flows over the global financial cycle","authors":"J. Scott Davis ,&nbsp;Eric van Wincoop","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103662","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103662","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a theory to account for the relationship between global asset price changes and net capital flows. We show empirically that countries that have a net debt of safe assets experience a rise in net outflows of safe assets (i.e. pay off safe asset debt) when global asset prices fall. This is accomplished through a rise in total net outflows (an increase in net savings) and a drop in net outflows of risky assets (the net sale of foreign risky assets). We develop a multi-country portfolio choice model that can account for these facts. The theory relies on cross-country heterogeneity in the share of an investor’s portfolio invested in risky assets. A global drop in risky asset prices changes relative wealth across countries due to this heterogeneity, which leads to changes in net flows of safe and risky assets. The model is applied to 20 advanced countries and calibrated to reflect observed cross country heterogeneity of net foreign asset positions of safe and risky assets. The implications of the calibrated model for net capital flows are quantitatively consistent with the data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103662"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wage employment, unemployment and self-employment across countries 各国的有薪就业、失业和自营职业情况
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103684
Markus Poschke
{"title":"Wage employment, unemployment and self-employment across countries","authors":"Markus Poschke","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103684","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103684","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Poor countries have low wage employment and high self-employment. This paper shows that they also have high unemployment relative to wage employment, and that self-employment increases with this ratio. To understand the sources of these patterns, I build a search and matching model with choice between job search and self-employment and with learning about matches, and calibrate it to match all transition rates between wage employment, unemployment and self-employment as well as separation hazards by job duration, separately for all 37 countries with available data. Quantitative analysis of the model shows that labor market frictions affect self-employment as much as unemployment. Labor market frictions also reduce aggregate output, not only by raising unemployment, but also by worsening the average quality of both wage employment matches and active self-employment projects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103684"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142269890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do firm expectations respond to monetary policy announcements? 企业预期是否会对货币政策公告做出反应？
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103648
Federico Di Pace , Giacomo Mangiante , Riccardo M. Masolo
{"title":"Do firm expectations respond to monetary policy announcements?","authors":"Federico Di Pace ,&nbsp;Giacomo Mangiante ,&nbsp;Riccardo M. Masolo","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103648","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103648","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates whether UK firms’ price growth expectations respond to the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy announcements and explores the underlying mechanism. Using microdata from the UK Decision Maker Panel survey, we isolate the exogenous component of the monetary policy decisions by comparing firms’ responses filed before and after BoE announcements. Guided by a model of dispersed information, our analysis suggests that firms respond to monetary policy announcements but are, overall, not as informed and sophisticated as financial market participants. Firms’ price expectations respond to actual interest rate changes, as well as to bank rate changes purged from their systematic component, but not to high-frequency surprises. The left tail of their expected price change distribution is particularly sensitive to monetary policy announcements. Furthermore, we unveil significant non-linear effects, with changes in interest rates of 50 basis points being mostly responsible for revisions in expectations. This implies that the recent tightening cycle was effective in shifting firms’ expectations primarily at its peak when a sequence of consecutive large rate hikes was implemented. We also show that UK news coverage of the BoE’s activities increases following policy rate changes, highlighting the media’s crucial role in shaping public expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103648"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Subjective housing price expectations, falling natural rates, and the optimal inflation target 主观房价预期、自然利率下降和最优通胀目标
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103647
Klaus Adam , Oliver Pfäuti , Timo Reinelt
{"title":"Subjective housing price expectations, falling natural rates, and the optimal inflation target","authors":"Klaus Adam ,&nbsp;Oliver Pfäuti ,&nbsp;Timo Reinelt","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103647","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103647","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>U.S. households’ housing price expectations deviate systematically from full-information rational expectations: (i) expectations are updated on average too sluggishly, (ii) expectations initially underreact but subsequently overreact to housing price changes, and (iii) households are overly optimistic (pessimistic) about housing price growth when the price-to-rent ratio is high (low). We show that weak forms of housing price growth extrapolation allow to simultaneously replicate the behavior of housing prices and these deviations from rational expectations as an equilibrium outcome. Embedding housing price growth extrapolation into a sticky price model with a lower-bound constraint on nominal interest rates, we show that lower natural rates of interest increase the volatility of housing prices and thereby the volatility of the natural rate of interest. This exacerbates the relevance of the lower bound constraint and causes Ramsey optimal inflation to increase strongly with a decline in the natural rate of interest.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103647"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141940763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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