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Overreaction and macroeconomic fluctuation of the external balance 过度反应和宏观经济的外部平衡波动
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103750
Seunghoon Na , Donghoon Yoo
{"title":"Overreaction and macroeconomic fluctuation of the external balance","authors":"Seunghoon Na ,&nbsp;Donghoon Yoo","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103750","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103750","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We incorporate diagnostic expectations (DE) into small open economy (SOE) models to offer novel insights into business cycles, especially in emerging countries. DE induce overreactions in domestic absorption, leading to countercyclical external balances and endogenous boom-bust cycles driven by surprises rooted in distant memory. This framework offers a cognitive alternative to permanent income shock in conventional SOE models under rational expectations (RE). Using Argentine macro-international data, we estimate a quantitative SOE-RBC model with DE that captures the volatility and cyclicality specific to emerging countries and identifies diagnosticity levels consistent with prior research, and reduces reliance on trend-driven TFP shocks. Our findings highlight DE as an empirically plausible mechanism, enriching the literature by demonstrating how imperfect, memory-based expectations influence macroeconomic dynamics in an open economy context.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103750"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade wars and the optimal design of monetary rules 贸易战与货币规则的优化设计
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103726
Stéphane Auray , Michael B. Devereux , Aurélien Eyquem
{"title":"Trade wars and the optimal design of monetary rules","authors":"Stéphane Auray ,&nbsp;Michael B. Devereux ,&nbsp;Aurélien Eyquem","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103726","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103726","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Countries have an incentive to use tariffs to gain advantage over trade partners, but an optimal tariff must weigh the benefits of an improved terms of trade against the costs that the tariff imposes on the domestic economy. In the presence of monopoly distortions and nominal rigidities, the stance of monetary policy may have a large effect on the evaluation of these costs. In a global economy where all countries set tariffs unilaterally in a ‘trade war’, the final outcome can differ dramatically depending on different monetary policy rules. We set out a model of a trade war in a New Keynesian open-economy model. For any one country, a tariff improves the terms of trade but is costly due to its deflationary effect on the domestic economy. A monetary rule which targets the CPI or stabilizes the nominal exchange rate exacerbates these latter costs, and leads to lower equilibrium tariff rates in a trade war. Furthermore, an optimally delegated monetary rule can in fact completely eliminate a trade war.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103726"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecast revisions as instruments for news shocks 预测修正作为应对新闻冲击的工具
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103729
Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia
{"title":"Forecast revisions as instruments for news shocks","authors":"Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103729","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103729","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Upon arrival of macroeconomic news, agents update their beliefs about the long-run fundamentals of the economy. I show that signals about agents’ expectations, proxied by professional forecasters’ outlook revisions, convey sufficient information to identify the effects of expected future technological changes, or news shocks. The approach benefits from not depending on an empirical technology measure or on assumptions about common trends and the timing of the technological change. News shocks cause a strong anticipation effect in investment, while there is less evidence of consumption smoothing—in line with news-driven business cycle models with financial frictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103729"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Active vs. passive policy and the trade-off between output and inflation in HANK HANK中主动与被动政策以及产出与通胀之间的权衡
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103732
Noah Kwicklis
{"title":"Active vs. passive policy and the trade-off between output and inflation in HANK","authors":"Noah Kwicklis","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103732","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103732","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When fiscal policy is active and monetary policy is passive in a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model, deficit-financed transfers to low-asset households lead to similar cumulative inflation but greater increases in real output than transfers to wealthier households. I use the inverse of the “Phillips multiplier”, the price level sacrifice ratio, to quantify this dynamic. Household heterogeneity and targeted policy change the timing of output gaps, making this consistent with the Phillips Curve and rendering conventional sacrifice ratio intuition misleading for assessing the inflation/output trade-off between policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103732"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The economics of helicopter money 直升机撒钱的经济学
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103768
Pierpaolo Benigno , Salvatore Nisticò
{"title":"The economics of helicopter money","authors":"Pierpaolo Benigno ,&nbsp;Salvatore Nisticò","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103768","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103768","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The economics of helicopter money is fundamentally tied to price-level determination in monetary models. In frameworks with intrinsically worthless currencies, the issuer’s liabilities define the unit of account, and uniquely empower the issuer to implement helicopter money and escape liquidity traps. While traditional helicopter money requires cooperation between the treasury and the central bank — with the central bank critically guaranteeing treasury debt — we demonstrate that helicopter money can also be effectively executed independently by government or private currency issuers, without treasury involvement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103768"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A plucking model of business cycles 商业周期的采摘模型
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103766
Stéphane Dupraz , Emi Nakamura , Jón Steinsson
{"title":"A plucking model of business cycles","authors":"Stéphane Dupraz ,&nbsp;Emi Nakamura ,&nbsp;Jón Steinsson","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103766","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103766","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In standard models, economic activity fluctuates symmetrically around a “natural rate” and stabilization policies can dampen these fluctuations but do not affect the average level of activity. An alternative view – labeled the “plucking model” by Milton Friedman – is that economic fluctuations are drops below the economy’s full potential ceiling. We show that the dynamics of the unemployment rate in the US display a striking asymmetry that strongly favors the plucking model: increases in unemployment are followed by decreases of similar amplitude, while the amplitude of a decrease does not predict the amplitude of the following increase. In addition, business cycles last seven years on average and unemployment rises much faster during recessions than it falls during expansions. We augment a standard labor search model with downward nominal wage rigidity and show how it can fit the plucking property.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103766"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corporate bond market distress 公司债券市场困境
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103765
Nina Boyarchenko , Richard K. Crump , Anna Kovner , Or Shachar
{"title":"Corporate bond market distress","authors":"Nina Boyarchenko ,&nbsp;Richard K. Crump ,&nbsp;Anna Kovner ,&nbsp;Or Shachar","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103765","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103765","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We link bond market functioning to future economic activity through a new measure, the Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI). The CMDI coalesces metrics from primary and secondary markets in real time, offering a unified measure to capture access to debt capital markets. The index correctly identifies periods of distress and predicts future realizations of commonly-used measures of market functioning, while the converse is not the case. We show that disruptions in access to corporate bond markets have an economically material, statistically significant impact on the real economy, even after controlling for standard predictors including credit spreads.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103765"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
All that glitters: A theory of multiple bubbles with implications for cryptocurrencies 所有这些都是闪闪发光的：一个对加密货币有影响的多重泡沫理论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103764
Jungsuk Han , Yenan Wang
{"title":"All that glitters: A theory of multiple bubbles with implications for cryptocurrencies","authors":"Jungsuk Han ,&nbsp;Yenan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103764","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103764","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze a model of heterogeneous rational bubbles that compete and complement each other. When some bubbles burst, surviving ones gain value, offsetting losses from collapsed bubbles. This “compensation effect,” combined with diversification, enhances welfare. A portfolio of fragile bubbles may rival a single, stable bubble. The stationary equilibrium imposes a tight upper bound on bubble size, considering covariance structures, price fluctuations, and the emergence of new bubbles. These results have important policy implications, particularly for managing crypto ETFs and issuing CBDCs, highlighting the potential benefits of a diversified approach to fragile financial systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103764"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Discussion of “Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free college or better schools” “形成不平等和贫困的代际持续：免费大学还是更好的学校”的讨论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103744
Veronica Guerrieri
{"title":"Discussion of “Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free college or better schools”","authors":"Veronica Guerrieri","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103744","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103744","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103744"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143372837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Discussion of “Joint Search Over the Life Cycle” 关于“全生命周期联合搜索”的探讨
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103731
Alessandra Fogli
{"title":"Discussion of “Joint Search Over the Life Cycle”","authors":"Alessandra Fogli","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103731","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103731","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103731"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143372262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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