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Style over substance? Advertising, innovation, and endogenous market structure 风格重于内容？广告、创新和内生市场结构
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103683
Laurent Cavenaile , Murat Alp Celik , Pau Roldan-Blanco , Xu Tian
{"title":"Style over substance? Advertising, innovation, and endogenous market structure","authors":"Laurent Cavenaile ,&nbsp;Murat Alp Celik ,&nbsp;Pau Roldan-Blanco ,&nbsp;Xu Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103683","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103683","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While firms use both innovation and advertising to boost profits, markups, and market shares, their broader social implications vary substantially. We study their interaction and analyze their implications for competition, industry dynamics, growth, and welfare. We develop an oligopolistic general-equilibrium growth model with firm heterogeneity. Market structure is endogenous, and firms’ production, innovation, and advertising decisions interact strategically. We find advertising reduces static misallocation, but also depresses growth through a substitution effect with R&amp;D. Although advertising is found to be socially useful, taxing it could simultaneously increase dynamic efficiency, contain excessive advertising spending, and raise revenue, while still reducing misallocation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103683"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142263229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wealth shocks and portfolio choice 财富冲击和投资组合选择
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103632
Dimitris Christelis , Dimitris Georgarakos , Tullio Jappelli , Geoff Kenny
{"title":"Wealth shocks and portfolio choice","authors":"Dimitris Christelis ,&nbsp;Dimitris Georgarakos ,&nbsp;Tullio Jappelli ,&nbsp;Geoff Kenny","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103632","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103632","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use new euro area representative data from the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) to elicit household-specific propensities to invest and consume out of positive wealth shocks. Using a randomized assignment of hypothetical lottery gains ranging from €5,000 to €50,000 and a realistic menu of consumption, saving and asset choices, we estimate the causal effect of wealth shocks on risky asset ownership and conditional asset shares. Wealth shocks have a positive effect on stockholding (between 8.4 and 12.8 percentage points increase in participation for the largest wealth shock). The majority of households do not participate in the stock market, even after a large increase in wealth. The conditional asset share invested in risky assets is constant for wealth shocks up to €20,000, and edges up slightly (by at most 2 %) for larger prizes. Our evidence is consistent with constant relative risk aversion for the majority of risky asset investors, while we also find important heterogeneity in the level of risk aversion across individuals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103632"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141781959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Neural network learning for nonlinear economies 非线性经济的神经网络学习
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103723
Julian Ashwin , Paul Beaudry , Martin Ellison
{"title":"Neural network learning for nonlinear economies","authors":"Julian Ashwin ,&nbsp;Paul Beaudry ,&nbsp;Martin Ellison","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103723","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103723","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Neural networks offer a promising tool for the analysis of nonlinear economies. In this paper, we derive conditions for the stability of nonlinear rational expectations equilibria under neural network learning. We demonstrate the applicability of the conditions in analytical and numerical examples where the nonlinearity is caused by monetary policy targeting a range, rather than a specific value, of inflation. If shock persistence is high or there is inertia in the structure of the economy, then the only rational expectations equilibria that are learnable may involve inflation spending long periods outside its target range. Neural network learning is also useful for solving and selecting between multiple equilibria and steady states in other settings, such as when there is a zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103723"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143155948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Labor market effects of global supply chain disruptions 全球供应链中断对劳动力市场的影响
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103724
Mauricio Ulate , Jose P. Vasquez , Roman D. Zarate
{"title":"Labor market effects of global supply chain disruptions","authors":"Mauricio Ulate ,&nbsp;Jose P. Vasquez ,&nbsp;Roman D. Zarate","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103724","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103724","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the labor market consequences of global supply chain disruptions. Specifically, we consider a temporary increase in international trade costs similar to the one observed during the COVID-19 pandemic and analyze its effects on labor market outcomes using a quantitative trade model with downward nominal wage rigidities. The increase in trade costs leads to a temporary but prolonged decline in U.S. labor force participation. However, there is a temporary increase in manufacturing employment as the United States is a net importer of manufactured goods, which become costlier to obtain from abroad. By contrast, service and agricultural employment experience temporary declines. Nominal frictions lead to temporary unemployment when the shock dissipates, but this depends on the degree of monetary accommodation. Overall, the shock results in an 8.5 basis points welfare loss for the United States. The impact on labor force participation and welfare across countries varies depending on the initial degree of openness and sectoral deficits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103724"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143155949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Equilibrium yield curves with imperfect information 不完全信息下的均衡收益率曲线
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103621
Hiroatsu Tanaka
{"title":"Equilibrium yield curves with imperfect information","authors":"Hiroatsu Tanaka","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103621","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103621","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I study the dynamics of default-free bond yields and term premia using a novel equilibrium term structure model with a New-Keynesian core and imperfect information<span> about productivity. Imperfect information can justify a shock to signals about productivity that does not lead to actual changes in productivity, which can be interpreted as a demand shock. When incorporated in a DSGE term structure model with a standard productivity shock, this demand shock generates term premia that are on average higher, with sizable countercyclical variation that arises endogenously. The model helps reconcile the empirical evidence that term premia have been on average positive and countercyclical, with numerous studies pointing to demand shocks as a key driver of business cycles over the last few decades.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103621"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141720315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary policy, firm heterogeneity, and the distribution of investment rates 货币政策、企业异质性与投资率分布
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103721
Matthias Gnewuch , Donghai Zhang
{"title":"Monetary policy, firm heterogeneity, and the distribution of investment rates","authors":"Matthias Gnewuch ,&nbsp;Donghai Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103721","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103721","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We document that an interest rate cut reshapes the cross-sectional distribution of investment rates—fewer zero and small investment rates and more large ones—and particularly so among young firms. The extensive margin investment decision—whether to invest or not—is essential in explaining these findings. We develop a heterogeneous-firm model with fixed adjustment costs and firm life-cycle dynamics to rationalize the evidence and study the implications for the investment channel. The extensive margin investment decision makes monetary policy less effective whenever few firms are inclined to invest: in downturns, but also in economies with low business dynamism and few young firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103721"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143156355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comment on: “Occupational reallocation within and across firms: Implications for labor-market polarization” By T. Mukoyama, N. Takayama, and S. Tanaka 评论：《企业内部和企业之间的职业再分配：对劳动力市场两极分化的影响》，作者：T. Mukoyama、N. Takayama和S. Tanaka
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103725
Sergio Salgado
{"title":"Comment on: “Occupational reallocation within and across firms: Implications for labor-market polarization” By T. Mukoyama, N. Takayama, and S. Tanaka","authors":"Sergio Salgado","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103725","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103725","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In many developing economies, labor markets have undergone a significant shift, with a decreasing share of routine occupations (e.g., assembly line workers) and a growing emphasis on cognitive occupations (e.g., software developers). Mukoyama et al. (2024) attribute this transformation to technological innovations driving the reorganization of work. Complementing this perspective, changes in the skill composition of the labor force also play a crucial role in explaining this occupational polarization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103725"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143372975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comment on the alpha beta gamma of the labor market 对劳动力市场的alpha beta gamma进行评论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103720
Richard Rogerson
{"title":"Comment on the alpha beta gamma of the labor market","authors":"Richard Rogerson","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103720","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103720","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This is an excellent paper that illustrates a recent line of work that I think is both very exciting and very promising. It makes three important contributions. First, it documents tremendous heterogeneity in lifetime labor market histories across workers. Second, it shows that introducing novel sources of heterogeneity into search models can account for this heterogeneity. Third, it shows that the resulting heterogeneous agent search model provides important and novel insights into many long-standing and important issues. This paper represents an important first step in the broader agenda of building models that can account for the important dimensions of heterogeneity found in the data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103720"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143372969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Singles, couples, time-averaging, and taxation 单身，夫妻，时间平均和税收
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103702
Hans A. Holter , Lars Ljungqvist , Thomas J. Sargent , Serhiy Stepanchuk
{"title":"Singles, couples, time-averaging, and taxation","authors":"Hans A. Holter ,&nbsp;Lars Ljungqvist ,&nbsp;Thomas J. Sargent ,&nbsp;Serhiy Stepanchuk","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103702","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103702","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study consequences of tax reforms in an incomplete markets overlapping generations model in which male and female workers with different ability levels self-insure by acquiring a risk-free bond, “time-averaging” their life-cycle work schedules and career lengths, and possibly by marrying and divorcing. We study incidences of a flat-rate tax and in combination with stylized versions of a negative income tax (NIT) or an earned income tax credit (EITC). Tax reforms have diverse effects that differ by workers’ abilities, marital statuses, and ages. A new “<em>ex post-ex ante</em>” criterion helps us to sort through welfare incidences. The importance of labor supply responses at the extensive margin makes the EITC better for redistribution than the NIT.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103702"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143372838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous job ladders 异构工作阶梯
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103711
Katarína Borovičková, Claudia Macaluso
{"title":"Heterogeneous job ladders","authors":"Katarína Borovičková,&nbsp;Claudia Macaluso","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103711","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103711","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate different wage growth rates over the life cycle for poor and rich workers, and how they relate to the frequency and quality of job-to-job transitions. Using the universe of labor market histories for Austrian workers born in 1960–62 to, we show that workers who are at the bottom of the earnings distribution have higher employer-to-employer transition rates than richer workers throughout their life. Nevertheless, they work for worse- and worse-paying firms as they age and are more likely to undergo unemployment spells at all ages. We propose a structural framework with learning by doing and heterogeneity along five dimensions: initial level of human capital, learning ability, and job separation propensity on the worker side, and productivity level and quality of offered learning opportunities on the employer side. Our model replicates the wage gap and the difference in the frequency of labor market transitions we document in the data, and allows us to investigate several dimensions of heterogeneity in the quality of labor market transitions. We find that poor workers’ lackluster wage growth stems from a combination of deteriorating human capital, employment in low-productivity jobs, and scarce on-the-job learning opportunities. We then evaluate a policy which matches low-wage workers to high-learning employers. We find that ameliorating the learning opportunities early in a worker’s career has a non-negligible impact on lifetime earnings. The gains from matching with a better employer greatly increase with job stability, as lower separation rates limit human capital depreciation and improve the odds of matching with high-productivity employers in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103711"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143372972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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