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Bridging micro and macro production functions: The fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment 衔接微观与宏观生产功能：基础设施投资的财政乘数
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103873
Minsu Chang , Hanbaek Lee
{"title":"Bridging micro and macro production functions: The fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment","authors":"Minsu Chang ,&nbsp;Hanbaek Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103873","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103873","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment using an estimated heterogeneous-firm general equilibrium model. We theoretically and quantitatively show that the firm-level non-rivalry in infrastructure usage drives a significant discrepancy in the estimated input elasticities between the firm and state levels. Moreover, it microfounds the increasing returns to scale assumption in a representative-agent framework (Baxter and King, 1993). The quantitative findings indicate a fiscal multiplier of approximately 1.15 over a 2-year horizon, suggesting a significantly greater net economic benefit than the representative-agent model prediction. This is due to the low sensitivity of the firm-level investment to the general equilibrium effect, followed by a significantly dampened crowding out.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103873"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Soft landing and inflation scares 软着陆和通胀恐慌
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103871
James Bullard , Alex Grimaud , Isabelle Salle , Gauthier Vermandel
{"title":"Soft landing and inflation scares","authors":"James Bullard ,&nbsp;Alex Grimaud ,&nbsp;Isabelle Salle ,&nbsp;Gauthier Vermandel","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103871","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103871","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We discuss the timing and strength of the Fed’s reaction to the recent inflation surge within an estimated macroeconomic model where long-run inflation expectations are heterogeneous and can lose their anchoring to the target. The resulting inflation scare worsens the real cost of disinflation. We derive a closed-form solution that retains the entire time-varying cross-sectional distribution of subjective inflation beliefs. We estimate the model using Bayesian techniques on both US macroeconomic time series and forecast data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Counterfactual simulations show that the timing – rather than the strength – of the policy reaction to the inflation surge is critical to contain the development of an inflation scare and prevent the entrenchment of above-target inflation. We show that the Fed fell behind the curve in 2021 since an earlier tightening could have reduced the inflation peak without triggering a recession. However, further delays would have unanchored inflation expectations, aggravated the inflation scare and strengthened the inflation surge, resulting in larger output losses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103871"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145624931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Consumer durables and monetary policy according to HANK 根据汉克的耐用品消费和货币政策
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103883
Emil Holst Partsch , Ivan Petrella , Emiliano Santoro
{"title":"Consumer durables and monetary policy according to HANK","authors":"Emil Holst Partsch ,&nbsp;Ivan Petrella ,&nbsp;Emiliano Santoro","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103883","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103883","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Durables’ interest-rate sensitivity and their persistent comovement with nondurable spending are hallmarks of monetary policy transmission. We develop a two-sector HANK model that replicates this pattern—both across spending categories and among households sorted by liquid asset holdings, consistent with empirical evidence. Direct effects of real interest rate changes are quantitatively important in reproducing sectoral expenditure comovement, while infrequent information updating is crucial to match the hump-shaped dynamics of sectoral and aggregate expenditures. Income effects are essential to preventing counterfactual declines in nondurable spending resulting from fiscal interventions specifically aimed at stimulating durable purchases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103883"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The natural rate of interest through a hall of mirrors 透过一大厅镜子看到的自然利率
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103858
Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, Fabian Winkler
{"title":"The natural rate of interest through a hall of mirrors","authors":"Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul,&nbsp;Fabian Winkler","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103858","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103858","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a novel explanation for persistent movements in the natural rate of interest, or r-star, based on a model of two-sided learning between the central bank and the private sector. Each side has some information about r-star fundamentals and also learns from observing output, inflation and interest rates. When both sides fail to recognise that their actions influence the other’s beliefs, a “hall-of-mirrors” effect arises that causes persistent shifts in r-star in response to cyclical shocks. The model can explain the post-2008 decline in r-star without changes in long-run fundamentals, as well as the excess sensitivity of long-term yields to monetary policy surprises and the underreaction of interest rate forecasts. Aggressive policy easing designed to counter a recession can inadvertently lower r-star and endogenously narrow policy space.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103858"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A theory of fear of floating 害怕漂浮的理论
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103869
Javier Bianchi , Louphou Coulibaly
{"title":"A theory of fear of floating","authors":"Javier Bianchi ,&nbsp;Louphou Coulibaly","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103869","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103869","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Central banks with flexible exchange rate regimes are often reluctant to let their currency float, a phenomenon known as “fear of floating.” We develop a framework in which a floating exchange rate may exacerbate vulnerability to self-fulfilling financial crises rather than provide the intended insulation against external shocks. A commitment to a crawling peg—where the currency can fluctuate within a predetermined band—can help mitigate the risk of self-fulfilling crises. In contrast to the Mundell–Fleming paradigm, the optimal exchange rate policy entails allowing the exchange rate to float in response to real shocks while maintaining it fixed in response to non-fundamental shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103869"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Biased surveys 有偏见的调查
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103868
Luca Gemmi , Rosen Valchev
{"title":"Biased surveys","authors":"Luca Gemmi ,&nbsp;Rosen Valchev","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103868","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103868","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We find empirical evidence that surveys of professional forecasters are biased by strategic incentives. First, we find that individual forecasts overreact to idiosyncratic information but underreact to common information. We show this is consistent with a model of strategic diversification incentives in forecast reporting where forecasters want to optimally “stand out” from the crowd, and thus report forecasts that exaggerate the agents’ true beliefs. Second, we show that no such biases are present in forecasts data that is not subject to strategic incentives. We also test further comparative statics that also confirm the strategic incentive model. Overall, we conclude that strategic reporting biases the inference an econometrician can draw on the true underlying expectations formation process, and the precision and heterogeneity in agents’ information sets, and lastly we show how to correct for this.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103868"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The price of intelligence: How should socially-minded firms price and deploy AI? 智能的价格：具有社会意识的公司应该如何定价和部署人工智能？
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103880
Nils H. Lehr , Pascual Restrepo
{"title":"The price of intelligence: How should socially-minded firms price and deploy AI?","authors":"Nils H. Lehr ,&nbsp;Pascual Restrepo","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103880","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103880","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Leading AI firms claim to prioritize social welfare. <em>How should firms with a social mandate price and deploy AI?</em> We derive pricing formulas that depart from profit maximization by incorporating incentives to improve welfare and reduce labor disruptions. Using US data, we evaluate several scenarios. A <em>welfarist firm</em> that values both profit and welfare should price closer to marginal cost, as efficiency gains outweigh distributional concerns. A <em>conservative firm</em> focused on labor-market stability should price above the profit-maximizing level in the short run, especially when its AI may displace low-income workers. Overall, socially minded firms face a trade-off between expanding access to AI and the resulting loss in profits and labor market risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103880"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A choice-based approach to the measurement of inflation expectations 一种基于选择的方法来衡量通胀预期
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103882
Olga Goldfayn-Frank , Pascal Kieren , Stefan Trautmann
{"title":"A choice-based approach to the measurement of inflation expectations","authors":"Olga Goldfayn-Frank ,&nbsp;Pascal Kieren ,&nbsp;Stefan Trautmann","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103882","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103882","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Economists widely rely on measures of inflation expectations and uncertainty elicited via density forecasts. This approach, which asks respondents to assign probabilities to pre-specified ranges, has proven highly informative, but also faced criticism in recent periods of elevated and volatile inflation. We propose a new method to elicit the full distribution of inflation expectations, which is rooted in decision theory and can be implemented in standard surveys. In two large surveys and a laboratory experiment, we demonstrate that the proposed method leads to well-defined expectations that fulfil both subjective and objective quality criteria. The method is neither perceived as more difficult nor does it take more time to complete compared to the current standard. In contrast to density forecasts, the method is robust to differences in the state of the economy and thus allows comparisons across time and across countries. The method is portable and can be applied to elicit different macroeconomic expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103882"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of AI on global knowledge work 人工智能对全球知识工作的影响
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103876
Enrique Ide, Eduard Talamàs
{"title":"The impact of AI on global knowledge work","authors":"Enrique Ide,&nbsp;Eduard Talamàs","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103876","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103876","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze how Artificial Intelligence (AI) reshapes global knowledge work in a two-region world where firms organize production hierarchically to use knowledge efficiently: the most knowledgeable individuals specialize in problem-solving, while others perform routine work. Before AI, the Advanced Economy specializes in problem-solving services, whereas the Emerging Economy focuses on routine work. AI converts compute — which is located in the Advanced Economy — into autonomous “AI agents” that perfectly substitute for humans with a given level of knowledge. Basic AI reduces the Advanced Economy’s net exports of problem-solving services, potentially reversing pre-AI trade patterns. In contrast, sophisticated AI expands these exports, reinforcing existing trade patterns. Finally, we show that a global ban on AI autonomy redistributes AI’s gains toward lower-skilled workers, while a regional ban — such as prohibiting autonomy only in the Emerging Economy — offers little benefit to lower-skilled workers and harms the most knowledgeable individuals in that region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103876"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Expectation-driven term structure of equity and bond yields 预期驱动的股票和债券收益率期限结构
IF 4.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103881
Ming Zeng , Guihai Zhao
{"title":"Expectation-driven term structure of equity and bond yields","authors":"Ming Zeng ,&nbsp;Guihai Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103881","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103881","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops a noisy-information equilibrium model to study how subjective expectations shape the joint dynamics of equity and bond yields. In our framework, movements in asset yields are driven by subjective expectations of dividend and GDP growth, rather than time-varying risk premia. A dual-component dividend structure, together with belief distortions, generates key asset-pricing facts: short-term equity yields are more volatile than long-term yields because short-run dividend growth expectations mean-revert to their stable long-run counterpart; the equity yield slope is procyclical due to countercyclical term structure of expected dividend growth; and the bond-stock correlation changes from positive to negative after the late 1990s, reflecting a shift in the correlation between expected GDP and dividend growth. The model also implies predictable dividend strip returns, with predictability declining with maturity due to dividend forecast revisions, and it successfully replicates the observed dynamics of equity yields and some aggregate moments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103881"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145790280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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