Inflation: What we have learned and what we need to know

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103656

Jan Hatzius

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We discuss the lessons that economic forecasters have learned about inflation since the Covid shock. First, physical shortages—e.g., in the auto sector—can push up goods prices much more dramatically than most forecasters expected following several decades near price stability. Second, imbalances in the rental housing market can sharply increase inflation and keep it high, especially in economies such as the US where rents are used to impute owner-occupied housing costs. Third, the jobs-workers gap can be a better measure of labor market balance than the unemployment rate or the employment/population ratio.

Originally prepared for the Spring 2024 NBER conference on “Inflation in the Covid era and beyond”.

查看原文本刊更多论文

通货膨胀：我们学到了什么和我们需要知道什么

我们将讨论自科维德冲击以来，经济预测者在通货膨胀方面吸取的经验教训。首先，实物短缺（如汽车行业）会推高商品价格，其幅度远远超出大多数预测者的预期。其次，住房租赁市场的失衡会急剧加剧通胀并使其居高不下，尤其是在美国等用租金来估算自住住房成本的经济体。第三，与失业率或就业/人口比例相比，就业与工人之间的差距可以更好地衡量劳动力市场的平衡。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Journal of Monetary Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

4.90%

发文量

审稿时长

74 days

期刊介绍： The profession has witnessed over the past twenty years a remarkable expansion of research activities bearing on problems in the broader field of monetary economics. The strong interest in monetary analysis has been increasingly matched in recent years by the growing attention to the working and structure of financial institutions. The role of various institutional arrangements, the consequences of specific changes in banking structure and the welfare aspects of structural policies have attracted an increasing interest in the profession. There has also been a growing attention to the operation of credit markets and to various aspects in the behavior of rates of return on assets. The Journal of Monetary Economics provides a specialized forum for the publication of this research.