对 Christina D. Romer 和 David H. Romer 所著 "从历史中汲取成功解除通货紧缩的经验教训 "的评论罗默和 David H. Romer

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103646

Donald Kohn

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在这些评论中，我将罗默的分析延伸到 1982-95 年，当时通胀率从 6%下降到有效的价格稳定，只出现了一次小规模衰退。尽管在罗默的分类中，美联储只是 "适度致力于 "消除通胀，但美联储还是通过仔细权衡紧缩的成本和收益，在通胀持续缓和的情况下实现了这一目标。虽然政策在明显实现稳定之前数次后退，但成功的原因在于始终关注价格稳定的最终目标，预先阻止通胀激增，并密切关注预期。最后，我就美联储如何在定于 2024 年开始的政策框架 5 年期审查中加强其价格稳定承诺提出了建议。

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Comments on “Lessons from history for successful disinflation” by Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer

In these comments I extend the Romers' analysis to 1982–95, when inflation fell from 6 % to effective price stability with only one small recession. The Fed accomplished this, despite being only “moderately committed” to disinflation in the Romer classification, through careful weighing of shifting costs and benefits from tightening as inflation continued to moderate. Though policy backed off several times before stability was clearly in sight, success resulted from keeping focus on the ultimate price stability goal, pre-empting surges in inflation, and paying close attention to expectations. I close with suggestions about how the Fed can strengthen its price stability commitment in the 5-year review of its policy framework slated to begin in 2024.

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来源期刊

Journal of Monetary Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

4.90%

发文量

审稿时长

74 days

期刊介绍： The profession has witnessed over the past twenty years a remarkable expansion of research activities bearing on problems in the broader field of monetary economics. The strong interest in monetary analysis has been increasingly matched in recent years by the growing attention to the working and structure of financial institutions. The role of various institutional arrangements, the consequences of specific changes in banking structure and the welfare aspects of structural policies have attracted an increasing interest in the profession. There has also been a growing attention to the operation of credit markets and to various aspects in the behavior of rates of return on assets. The Journal of Monetary Economics provides a specialized forum for the publication of this research.