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Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks revisited: Theory and evidence 再论作为总供给冲击的相对价格变化：理论与证据
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103650
Hassan Afrouzi , Saroj Bhattarai , Edson Wu
{"title":"Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks revisited: Theory and evidence","authors":"Hassan Afrouzi ,&nbsp;Saroj Bhattarai ,&nbsp;Edson Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103650","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103650","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We provide theory and evidence that relative price shocks can cause aggregate inflation and act as aggregate supply shocks. Empirically, we show that exogenous positive energy price shocks have a positive impact not only on headline but also on U.S. core inflation while depressing U.S. real activity. In a two-sector monetary model with upstream and downstream sectors and heterogeneous price stickiness, we analytically characterize how upstream shocks propagate to prices. Using panel IV local projections, we show that the responsiveness of sectoral PCE prices to energy price shocks is in line with model predictions. Motivated by post-COVID inflation in the U.S., a model experiment shows that a one-time relative price shock generates persistent movements in headline and core inflation similar to those observed in the data, even in the absence of aggregate slack. The model also emphasizes that monetary policy stance plays an important role in propagation of such shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103650"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Partisan expectations and COVID-era inflation 党派预期和 COVID 时代的通货膨胀
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103649
Carola Conces Binder , Rupal Kamdar , Jane M. Ryngaert
{"title":"Partisan expectations and COVID-era inflation","authors":"Carola Conces Binder ,&nbsp;Rupal Kamdar ,&nbsp;Jane M. Ryngaert","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103649","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103649","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We document that, during the COVID-19 era, the inflation expectations of Democrats remained strongly anchored, while those of Republicans did not. Republicans’ expectations not only rose well above the inflation target, but also became more sensitive to a variety of shocks, including CPI releases and energy prices. We then exploit geographic variation in political affiliation at the MSA level to show that the partial de-anchoring of expectations had implications for realized inflation. Counterfactual exercises imply that, had all expectations become as unanchored as those of Republicans, average inflation would have been two to four percentage points higher for much of the pandemic period, ceteris paribus.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103649"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Learning about labor markets 了解劳动力市场
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103612
{"title":"Learning about labor markets","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103612","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103612","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study a general equilibrium model of the labor market in which agents slowly learn about their suitability for jobs. Our model reproduces desirable features of the data, many of which standard models fail to replicate. We explore how, in such an environment, asymmetric information can lead to substantial misallocation. We calibrate our model to US data and quantify the welfare loss arising from misallocation due to informational frictions. The tractability of the model allows us to explore the responsiveness of wages and employment to an aggregate shock. We find that wage rigidity arises endogenously because of protracted learning, and in line with the data, the model is able to generate a larger and more persistent employment response.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103612"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141142509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Shopping behavior and the effect of monetary policy on inflation heterogeneity along the income distribution 购物行为和货币政策对收入分配中通货膨胀异质性的影响
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103618
{"title":"Shopping behavior and the effect of monetary policy on inflation heterogeneity along the income distribution","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103618","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103618","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span><span><span>This paper studies the effect of monetary policy on </span>inflation along the income distribution in the euro area and shows that monetary policy has differential effects. In response to monetary tightenings, high-income households engage in more intense </span>product substitution and trade down in the product and store space relative to low-income households, such that their inflation responds relatively </span><em>more</em>. This channel stands in contrast to the effect arising from different consumption bundles, which imply that the inflation experienced by high-income households responds <em>less</em> to monetary policy. The paper also reveals substantial cross-country heterogeneity, with the product substitution channel being more pronounced in countries where price differences between possible substitutes are larger.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103618"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141501116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Six beliefs I have about inflation: Remarks prepared for NBER conference on “Inflation in the Covid era and beyond” 我对通货膨胀的六个信念：为 NBER "科维德时代及其后的通货膨胀 "会议准备的发言稿
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103631
N. Gregory Mankiw
{"title":"Six beliefs I have about inflation: Remarks prepared for NBER conference on “Inflation in the Covid era and beyond”","authors":"N. Gregory Mankiw","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103631","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103631","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This essay discusses six of my beliefs about the inflation process that are not universally shared among economists.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103631"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141781811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Lessons from history for successful disinflation 成功解除通货紧缩的历史教训
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103654
Christina D. Romer, David H. Romer
{"title":"Lessons from history for successful disinflation","authors":"Christina D. Romer,&nbsp;David H. Romer","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103654","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103654","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Why are some attempts at disinflation successful and others failures? We investigate this question in the context of the Federal Reserve's attempts at disinflation since World War II. Our central finding is that a fundamental determinant of success was the strength of the Federal Reserve's commitment to disinflation at the start of its attempts. In episodes where its commitment was high, there were significant declines in inflation that were often long-lasting, while in ones where its commitment was low, falls in inflation were small and short-lived. We find that although the extent of the Federal Reserve's commitment was often clear to the public, there is no evidence that stronger commitment to disinflation directly affected expected inflation. Rather, the main channel through which weak commitment led to unsuccessful disinflation was premature abandonment of the disinflationary policy. We conclude by discussing the implications for the Federal Reserve's current effort at disinflation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103654"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142592895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Credit cards, credit utilization, and consumption 信用卡、信贷使用和消费
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103619
{"title":"Credit cards, credit utilization, and consumption","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103619","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103619","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use credit bureau data to show that credit card limits grow rapidly early in life and are an important early-life liquidity source. Yet individual credit utilization is stable over the short and long term. To explain these new findings, we propose a life-cycle consumption model with heterogeneous preferences, the option to revolve, and credit cards used for payments. Using diary data to identify payment use and the revealed preference that some people with credit cards borrow at high interest, while others do not to help identify heterogeneous preferences, the estimated model matches consumption and credit use at every frequency. The model suggests that around half the population has an endogenously high marginal propensity to consume. This targetable population explains the large consumption response to unexpected cash.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103619"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141587531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Occupational reallocation within and across firms: Implications for labor market polarization 企业内部和企业之间的职业再分配：对劳动力市场两极分化的影响
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103701
Toshihiko Mukoyama , Naoki Takayama , Satoshi Tanaka
{"title":"Occupational reallocation within and across firms: Implications for labor market polarization","authors":"Toshihiko Mukoyama ,&nbsp;Naoki Takayama ,&nbsp;Satoshi Tanaka","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103701","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103701","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyzes how labor market frictions interact with firms’ decisions to reallocate workers across different occupations during labor market polarization. We compare the patterns of occupational reallocation within and across firms in the US and Germany in recent years. We find within-firm reallocation contributes significantly to the decline in employment in routine occupations in Germany, but much less so in the US. We construct a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics and find the model with different firing taxes can replicate the difference in firm-level adjustment patterns across these countries. We conduct two counterfactual experiments for each country, highlighting the different roles played by the within-firm cost of reorganizing the occupational mix and across-firm frictions created by firing taxes. The results suggest the latter plays a more significant role in labor market polarization. Higher firing costs would lead to greater and faster polarization in the US.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103701"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143372978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The macroeconomic effects of universal basic income programs 全民基本收入计划的宏观经济效应
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103615
{"title":"The macroeconomic effects of universal basic income programs","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103615","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103615","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I develop a heterogeneous agents overlapping generations model to assess the welfare effects of substituting the US income security system with a UBI policy. I study two counterfactual exercises: an expenditure-neutral reform and a large, policy-oriented UBI reform with a transfer equivalent to $1000 monthly, both financed by changes in the consumption tax<span><span>. The first exercise has a moderate fiscal impact, induces increases in the aggregate output and employment, and reduces earnings and wealth inequality. The second exercise requires a large increase in the </span>consumption tax<span> rate, decreases employment and output, and increases earnings inequality, which moves sideways for wealth. In both cases, disposable income and consumption are more equally distributed, with less accrual at the top. The two economies generate positive welfare gains, with those for the generous UBI economy being larger.</span></span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103615"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141501117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Phillips meets Beveridge 菲利普斯与贝弗里奇
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103660
Régis Barnichon, Adam Hale Shapiro
{"title":"Phillips meets Beveridge","authors":"Régis Barnichon,&nbsp;Adam Hale Shapiro","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103660","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103660","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Phillips curve plays a central role in the macroeconomics literature. However, there is little consensus on the forcing variable that drives inflation in the model, i.e., on the appropriate measure of “slack” in the economy. In this work, we systematically assess the ability of variables commonly used in the literature to (i) predict and (ii) explain inflation fluctuations over time and across U.S. metropolitan areas. In particular, we exploit a newly constructed panel dataset with job openings and vacancy filling cost proxies covering 1982–2022. We find that the vacancy-unemployment (V/U) ratio and vacancy filling cost proxies outperform other slack measures, in particular the unemployment rate. Beveridge curve shifts—notably, movements in matching efficiency—are responsible for the superior performance of the V/U ratio over unemployment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103660"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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