{"title":"Heterogeneous asset valuation in OTC markets and optimal inflation","authors":"Athanasios Geromichalos , Kuk Mo Jung","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104824","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104824","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Building on recent work in monetary theory and finance, we develop a framework where money serves a <em>double liquidity role</em>, namely, it serves as a medium of exchange in goods markets as well as asset markets. We argue that studying such a framework is not only more empirically relevant, but also gives rise to new, important economic insights regarding the effects of inflation on welfare and asset prices. The main result of the paper is that, contrary to conventional wisdom, in our model welfare can be increasing in inflation due to a new channel whereby higher inflation promotes beneficial trade in the secondary asset market.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139680057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Optimal fiscal and monetary policy with collateral constraints","authors":"Qingqing Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104825","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104825","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study the Ramsey optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy where banks face collateral constraints. Inflation reduces the net worth of banks and tightens their collateral constraint by revaluing their nominal assets and liabilities. The optimal policy balances tax distortions with the costs of inflation on banks, thereby deviating from perfect tax smoothing. Our quantitative analysis reveals that inflation plays a much smaller role in financing fiscal needs in the optimal policy compared to existing literature. When considering price stickiness and long-term government debt, optimal inflation is modest and persistent, and the role of inflation in fiscal financing increases with the maturity of government debt.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139648098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Interbank Decisions and Margins of Stability: an Agent-Based Stock-Flow Consistent Approach","authors":"Jessica Reale","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104822","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104822","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the functioning of modern payment systems through the lens of banks' maturity mismatch practices, and it examines the effects of banks' refusal to roll over short-term interbank liabilities on financial stability. Within an agent-based stock-flow consistent framework, banks can engage in two segments of the interbank market that differ in maturity, overnight and term. We compare two interbank matching scenarios to assess how bank-specific maturity targets, dependent on the dictates of the Net Stable Funding Ratio, impact the dynamics of the interbank market and the effectiveness of conventional monetary policies. The findings reveal that maturity misalignment between deficit and surplus banks compromises the interbank market's efficiency and increases reliance on the central bank's standing facilities. Monetary policy interest-rate steering practices also become less effective. The study also uncovers a dual stability-based configuration in the banking sector, resembling the segmented European interbank structure. This paper suggests that heterogeneous maturity mismatches between surplus and deficit banks may result in asymmetric funding frictions that might precede credit- and sovereign-risk explanations of interbank tensions. Also, a combined examination of macroprudential tools and rollover-based interbank dynamics can enhance our understanding of how regulatory changes impact the stability of heterogeneous banking sectors.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188924000149/pdfft?md5=fae46df3759136ee92d05545a75d2451&pid=1-s2.0-S0165188924000149-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139588940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dynamic CVaR portfolio construction with attention-powered generative factor learning","authors":"Chuting Sun , Qi Wu , Xing Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104821","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104821","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The dynamic portfolio construction problem requires dynamic modeling of the joint distribution of multivariate stock returns<span>. To achieve this, we propose a dynamic generative factor model which uses random variable transformation as an implicit way of distribution modeling and relies on the Attention-GRU network for dynamic learning and forecasting. The proposed model captures the dynamic dependence among multivariate stock returns, especially focusing on the tail-side properties. We also propose a two-step iterative algorithm to train the model and then predict the time-varying model parameters, including the time-invariant tail parameters. At each investment date, we can easily simulate new samples from the learned generative model, and we further perform CVaR portfolio optimization with the simulated samples to form a dynamic portfolio strategy. The numerical experiment on stock data shows that our model leads to wiser investments that promise higher reward-risk ratios and present lower tail risks.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139588816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fiscal policy with an informal sector","authors":"Harris Dellas , Dimitris Malliaropulos , Dimitris Papageorgiou , Evangelia Vourvachaki","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104820","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104820","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>On the eve of its sovereign debt crisis in 2010, Greece initiated a large fiscal consolidation program. By 2015, official GDP had fallen to 26% below its 2009 level. We feed the actual fiscal package in the </span>DSGE model<span> of the Bank of Greece, augmented to include an informal sector, to assess the contribution of the fiscal package as well as of its individual tax and spending components. The model explains the bulk of the cumulative reduction in economic activity, and attributes roughly half of the decline to government spending measures and the other half to tax increases. The interaction of a large fiscal adjustment with a large and elastic informal sector proved lethal. Our model predicts that had growth in shadow activities been contained, the vicious circle between fiscal adjustment, tax revenue and macroeconomic activity could have been significantly mitigated, resulting in a considerably milder downturn.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139516502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Counterparty choice, maturity shifts and market freezes: Lessons from the European interbank market","authors":"Susanna Saroyan","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104819","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104819","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We explore the impact of relationship lending on the interbank debt maturity structure of banks using data from the e-MID market covering both pre- and post-Lehman periods. We study the term structure and maturity shortening of interbank lending as an indicator of risk in times of stress. We identify bank-level and pair-level variables which are shown to contain information about the behaviour of lending relations during times of stress. Using a two-part fractional response model we show that durable liquidity relationships increase the probability of contracting term loans, but do not prevent maturity shortening during periods of acute stress. Finally, we find that lenders with concentrated short-term interbank liability structure tend to reduce their own long term lending, which confirms the rollover risk viewpoint of term interbank market freeze. Our findings are relevant for the modelling of interbank networks under stress and the design of forward looking stress tests for the banking system.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188924000113/pdfft?md5=11eeefc5283764e44eba2c1b554275a0&pid=1-s2.0-S0165188924000113-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139516417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Diego Escobar , Jeanne Lafortune , Loris Rubini , José Tessada
{"title":"The redistributive effects of size-dependent childcare policies","authors":"Diego Escobar , Jeanne Lafortune , Loris Rubini , José Tessada","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104818","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104818","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Governments often adopt policies to reduce the cost of childcare for working families, but those can distort the allocation of resources. We develop and calibrate a general equilibrium model with firm and household heterogeneity and study the case of Chile, where firms with more than 19 female employees must provide childcare. We find that removing this policy would increase welfare on average by 2.3% of consumption equivalent units over their lifetime. However, the removal would not translate into increases in GDP, in part because of a reduced labor supply. Instead, the main effects of the policy are redistributive, shifting resources away from females towards males. The policy reduces welfare for most females, and these losses are decreasing in income. In particular, low-education single females, who do not rely on a second wage, would gain up to 20% in consumption equivalent units by removing the policy. We propose that alternative childcare financing options would be preferred. Specifically, financing childcare through labor taxes would increase aggregate welfare by over 13%, with the largest gains accruing to single, low-education mothers.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139476856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Asymmetric information in frictional markets for liquidity: Collateralized credit vs asset sale","authors":"Florian Madison","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104808","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104808","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>This paper studies (non-)equivalence of collateralized credit and asset sales in over-the-counter markets subject to commitment and information frictions. Embedded in a search-theoretic general equilibrium model, a signaling game refined by the undefeated equilibrium endogenizes the choice between pooling and separating offers and provides novel insights under what conditions either payment strategy dominates the other. The results show that non-equivalence depends on economic fundamentals, commitment, and information frictions. Despite adverse selection, first-best consumption can occur for collateralized credit, but not for asset sales, with belief-driven endogenous haircuts and over-collateralization characterizing the </span>terms of trade<span>. An extension incorporating co-existing information-sensitive assets and fiat money<span> sheds new light on portfolio management and diversification under private information and ties optimal payment strategies to </span></span></span>monetary policy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139100036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The transitional impact of state pension reform","authors":"Jordan Pandolfo , Kurt Winkelmann","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104807","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104807","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We use an overlapping generations framework to evaluate the transitional impact of state pension reform on public and private workers, extending our analysis to all fifty U.S. states. We consider reducing cost-of-living-adjustments (COLAs) for retirees and reducing benefit accruals for current workers. The magnitude of reform in each state is calibrated to achieve a common policy goal: the elimination of unfunded pension liabilities within twenty years.</p><p>Although each reform effectively decreases long run taxes by reducing pension liabilities, variation in fiscal and demographic features creates significant differences in state outcomes. Both reforms yield an asymmetry in welfare outcomes, providing gains to private workers through reduced taxes while causing losses to public workers due to reduced pension income. Wage compensation for affected public workers proves to be a valuable policy instrument for achieving better balance. In the aggregate, state level welfare gains are possible for both reforms.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139375618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Why does the schooling gap close while the wage gap persists across country income comparisons?","authors":"Pantelis Karapanagiotis , Paul Reimers","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104805","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104805","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The schooling gap diminishes because the services sector becomes more pronounced for high-income countries, and the paid hours gap closes. Although gender wage inequality persists across country income groups, differences in schooling years between females and males diminish. We assemble a novel dataset, calibrate a general equilibrium, multi-sector, -gender, and -production technology model, and show that gender-specific sectoral comparative advantages explain the paid hours and schooling gap decline from low- to high-income economies even when the wage gap persists. Additionally, our counterfactual analyses indicate that consumption subsistence and production share heterogeneity across both income groups and genders are essential to explain the co-decline of the schooling and paid hours gaps. Our results highlight effective mechanisms for policies aiming to reduce gender inequality in schooling and suggest that the schooling gap decline and the de-invisibilization of female paid work observed in high-income countries are linked by structural sector movements instead of wage inequality reductions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188923002117/pdfft?md5=766a593cdfd545b0c2b254c0e02d3908&pid=1-s2.0-S0165188923002117-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139063715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}