时变的政府支出预见

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI:10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105067

Junjie Guo , Zhao Han

{"title":"时变的政府支出预见","authors":"Junjie Guo , Zhao Han","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105067","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Government spending forecast is noisy and displays time-varying uncertainties. Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we establish three stylized facts about disagreement regarding future discretionary government spending. A simple noise representation of foresight <em>á la</em> <span><span>Chahrour and Jurado (2018)</span></span> featuring stochastic volatility captures these stylized facts. We analyze both qualitatively and quantitatively how the noisy foresight structure impacts the macroeconomy under different monetary-fiscal policy regimes. Time-varying fiscal foresight manifests its effect through non-zero noise shocks by generating state-dependent government spending multipliers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 105067"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Time-varying government spending foresight\",\"authors\":\"Junjie Guo , Zhao Han\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105067\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Government spending forecast is noisy and displays time-varying uncertainties. Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we establish three stylized facts about disagreement regarding future discretionary government spending. A simple noise representation of foresight <em>á la</em> <span><span>Chahrour and Jurado (2018)</span></span> featuring stochastic volatility captures these stylized facts. We analyze both qualitatively and quantitatively how the noisy foresight structure impacts the macroeconomy under different monetary-fiscal policy regimes. Time-varying fiscal foresight manifests its effect through non-zero noise shocks by generating state-dependent government spending multipliers.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48314,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control\",\"volume\":\"173 \",\"pages\":\"Article 105067\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-02-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188925000338\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188925000338","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

政府支出预测是嘈杂的，并显示出随时间变化的不确定性。通过对专业预测者的调查，我们建立了关于未来可自由支配的政府支出的分歧的三个程式化事实。la Chahrour和Jurado（2018）以随机波动为特征的前瞻性的简单噪声表示捕获了这些程式化的事实。本文从定性和定量两方面分析了在不同货币-财政政策体制下，噪声前瞻结构对宏观经济的影响。时变财政预见性通过产生依赖国家的政府支出乘数而产生非零噪声冲击。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Time-varying government spending foresight

Government spending forecast is noisy and displays time-varying uncertainties. Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we establish three stylized facts about disagreement regarding future discretionary government spending. A simple noise representation of foresight á la Chahrour and Jurado (2018) featuring stochastic volatility captures these stylized facts. We analyze both qualitatively and quantitatively how the noisy foresight structure impacts the macroeconomy under different monetary-fiscal policy regimes. Time-varying fiscal foresight manifests its effect through non-zero noise shocks by generating state-dependent government spending multipliers.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

10.50%

发文量

199

期刊介绍： The journal provides an outlet for publication of research concerning all theoretical and empirical aspects of economic dynamics and control as well as the development and use of computational methods in economics and finance. Contributions regarding computational methods may include, but are not restricted to, artificial intelligence, databases, decision support systems, genetic algorithms, modelling languages, neural networks, numerical algorithms for optimization, control and equilibria, parallel computing and qualitative reasoning.